Yeah, the AP writer probably isn't wrong. The poll that puts Clark 4 points ahead of Bush has a 4-point margin of error. The poll that has Bush 4 points ahead of Dean has a 3 point margin of error. So you would say that there's at least a 95% chance that Bush's score would actually be higher than Dean's if you could survey the whole nation, but the chance that Clark's score is actually higher than Bush's is 95% or less.
The AP writer might be wrong due to rounding error, but he or she isn't demonstrating bias.
Ogged & Ted: thanks for the correction. I updated my post as well.
What's really embarassing is that my father actually teaches statistics. I would say "apparently, it skips a generation," but it remains possible yet that any child I may have will be just as innumerate as I am.
Yeah, the AP writer probably isn't wrong. The poll that puts Clark 4 points ahead of Bush has a 4-point margin of error. The poll that has Bush 4 points ahead of Dean has a 3 point margin of error. So you would say that there's at least a 95% chance that Bush's score would actually be higher than Dean's if you could survey the whole nation, but the chance that Clark's score is actually higher than Bush's is 95% or less.
The AP writer might be wrong due to rounding error, but he or she isn't demonstrating bias.
What do you do for a living, ogged? Just curious.
Posted by Ted Barlow | Link to this comment | 09-22-03 11:39 PM
Thanks for the clarification. What you write is almost exactly what the email I received said, so, given our democratic approach to truth, AP wins!
My identity paranoia requires that I keep my occupation a secret. Facts have a funny way of adding up.
Posted by ogged | Link to this comment | 09-23-03 7:28 AM
Ogged & Ted: thanks for the correction. I updated my post as well.
What's really embarassing is that my father actually teaches statistics. I would say "apparently, it skips a generation," but it remains possible yet that any child I may have will be just as innumerate as I am.
Posted by jhp | Link to this comment | 09-23-03 8:15 AM