Good to be the foil for such thoughtful comments. I should have indicated my change to the post.
I don't agree that Dean has no hope among African-Americans in the South. I don't think it's a natural base for him, but they are still in play. And, absent a Jesse Jackson in the race, black voters will tend to be looking for someone who can beat Bush as much as anyone. Dean has Jesse Jackson Jr.'s endorsement, might get his father's, and the endorsement of South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, which brings with it a sizable portion of that state's black vote, is still up for grabs.
Dean should do fine with the white liberals in the South, around Columbia, SC or Research Triangle. I think low-income whites in the South is a much tougher base for him, especially with his positions on social issues, and Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark, and Edwards have a better shot with this constituency. In other words, I think what Dean was saying was just a general statement that he wanted to include everybody, and not a statement of a specific strategy of writing off black votes and replacing them with low-income white votes.
In the general election, regardless of who the nominee is, black turnout is going to be HUGE in the states that matter, like Florida, Illinois, etc. Millions of dollars are already going into the GOTV effort, and they hate Bush.
But it's true, I read too much into Dean's statement, as did others.
Mark, thanks for the response. I'm glad to hear that you think black turnout will be high, because I've been thinking that that may decide the election. I admit I'm not quite as confident that turnout will be high enough if Dean is the nominee, but you know more about this than I do.
Good to be the foil for such thoughtful comments. I should have indicated my change to the post.
I don't agree that Dean has no hope among African-Americans in the South. I don't think it's a natural base for him, but they are still in play. And, absent a Jesse Jackson in the race, black voters will tend to be looking for someone who can beat Bush as much as anyone. Dean has Jesse Jackson Jr.'s endorsement, might get his father's, and the endorsement of South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, which brings with it a sizable portion of that state's black vote, is still up for grabs.
Dean should do fine with the white liberals in the South, around Columbia, SC or Research Triangle. I think low-income whites in the South is a much tougher base for him, especially with his positions on social issues, and Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark, and Edwards have a better shot with this constituency. In other words, I think what Dean was saying was just a general statement that he wanted to include everybody, and not a statement of a specific strategy of writing off black votes and replacing them with low-income white votes.
In the general election, regardless of who the nominee is, black turnout is going to be HUGE in the states that matter, like Florida, Illinois, etc. Millions of dollars are already going into the GOTV effort, and they hate Bush.
But it's true, I read too much into Dean's statement, as did others.
Posted by Mark Schmitt | Link to this comment | 11- 6-03 6:52 AM
Mark, thanks for the response. I'm glad to hear that you think black turnout will be high, because I've been thinking that that may decide the election. I admit I'm not quite as confident that turnout will be high enough if Dean is the nominee, but you know more about this than I do.
Posted by ogged | Link to this comment | 11- 6-03 10:53 AM