Aren't we supposed to have drinking games or something?
I think the first unfogged meetup I went to was on the previous super Tuesday. No drinking games, but plenty of unregulated boozing.
In semi OP related topics, why does the NYT employ Morris Zapp?
And if you thought US horserace coverage was ridiculous, Der Spiegel has a huge spread at the top of its page, including breaking updates, most recent when I checked: Santorum's kids tired, yawn during his speech.
This is the post with post id 12000! Isn't that exciting?
4: more exciting than American politics, yes.
I really think 10 states is too few to call it Super Tuesday.
Does anyone has leverage over Gingrinch?
Gingrich won GA and Paul's going to win VA? What the hell is wrong with people?
1, yes.
2, to cover for Stanley Fish's vacation days.
Yeah, I think everyone's already called VA for Romney.
Santorum leading in Ohio, but my rough calculation on results has Romney taking it in a very close race (the urban more pro-Romney counties have more votes left to count).
15: You don't find Josh Marshall's logic compelling?
Nate Silver seems to think it may not be and that Santorum -- based on all the data before us right now -- is the slight favorite. That sounds right to me, especially because Nate seems to think so too.
Nate Silver thinks poomix has a good shot in Ohio.
Oh, by "win VA" I just meant "get a higher percentage of the vote in VA than he did elsewhere". Also, I misread the chart on the NYT.
... I don't know. Depends on if there are demographic breaks within the urban counties, and they are being counted differentially so far. I'll go read Silver. The relatively well-off suburban puke Reoblicans with their net worth spreadsheets from hell are Romney's base, and Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincy) are both less than 50% in (I don;t even know who the actual urban Republicans would be).
The key development here is that we're now drinking Pappy Van Winkle 20-year Family Reserve.
That is the stuff right there, Blandings.
I predict an asshole will win the Ohio Republican primary.
I predict an asshole will win the 2016 Ohio Republican primary.
OK, shoot out at the nerd corral, but I'm fucking right and Nate Silver is fucking wrong. (I must be missing something, because his last extrapolation does not work out for me with Santorum increasing his lead to 2%--sometime the precinct % counted can be deceptive.) If Ricky hangs on, it will be by a whisker from the results I see with 66% counted.
I do think Twitter is Andy Borowitz's medium, he can't sustain beyond that.
CNN: If these numbers hold up in Ohio, a massive douchebag will defeat a ginormous dick.
I'm feeling more comfortable with my prediction at teh moment. I suspect Silver's This method also shows a slight advantage for Mr. Santorum, putting him on pace to win the state by about 35,000 votes or 2 percentage points over Mr. Romney. must have picked up something wrong formulaicly such as believing Clermont County (a Santorum county) actually only having 1% of the precincts counted when clearly has a fair bit more than that.
29 was a little incoherent.
Shorter: Nate Silver and Josh Marshall can suck my dick. Losers!
You don't find Josh Marshall's logic compelling?
His reasoning appears to be "Nate Silver says so," so, yeah, no.
Oh fuck Nate Silver and Josh Marshall. Whatever: we'll find out tomorrow, and wade through the sordid details then. (I am just so pissed off about my extended family's behavior.)
Only one more hour until the polls close in Alaska!
34: Palin says she voted for Gingrich. That seemed important to share when I started typing the comment.
No one really has any idea who's going to win; there's been no polling at all, and the only candidate to actually come up was Paul. That said, Romney won in 2008, and based on that and the substantial support he has from a lot of prominent Republicans in the state I suspect he'll win this time too.
Nobody cares what Palin thinks, though.
BBC describes Ohio result as "equal pegging" between Romney and Santorum. I freely admit to not comprehending the physiogeometry of that.
They're all fucking assholes. I mean the Republican candidates: all the hogwash saber-rattling over Iran is just not funny.
Anyway, obviously Romney is the eventual candidate, and obviously he'll have to pivot to the center at some point, the sooner the better for him, and obviously the RNC rules change dictating proportional delegate counts has been a serious problem for their party, and obviously there's an intraparty fight among Republicans about the direction in which their party should go. Is there anything new at all to be said about any of this?
Sorry -- I'm decompressing.
29: It now looks like Romney by probably 1%+ in Ohio. Clermont actually ended up going Romney (the ex-urbanites evidently outnumber the goobers there--it's in Jean Schmidt's district).
37: And I would think even less so in Alaska than elsewhere. The Anchorage Daily News always had much more grounded coverage of her than the idiots in the lower 48 political media.
it's in Jean Schmidt's district
And she lost in an upset... to another Republican, of course. Her district had been redrawn a bit more unfavorably for her.
15
... but my rough calculation on results has Romney taking it ...
Good call.
Kucinich loses in his redrawn district primary race.
Looks like they're starting to call Ohio for Romney.
The LOLGOP message: BREAKING: All of the voting machines in Ohio just rebooted and now George W. Bush is leading by 12,000 votes.
And Romney does indeed win Alaska.
Kind of an underwhelming Super Tuesday overall, but at least it wasn't a Romney blowout. Current NYT headline: "Romney Appears to Win Ohio Primary."
I assume Romney beat Santorum in Georgia because some otherwise Santorum voters went to Gingrich? It seems like head to head Santorum would win that one.
TPM, which generally seems to follow a rule of "we call it when two or more major outlets call it" is calling Ohio for Romney based on CNN and AP reports.
I don't have any idea how all of this adds up in terms of delegates, except it sure sounds like the spewing of primary-related vile BS will continue for a long time.
I assume Romney beat Santorum in Georgia because some otherwise Santorum voters went to Gingrich? It seems like head to head Santorum would win that one.
Yeah, it seems pretty clear that Gingrich and Santorum are competing for the same group of voters at this point. If one of them drops out the other is probably going to be able to solidify the not-Romney vote.
I don't have any idea how all of this adds up in terms of delegates, except it sure sounds like the spewing of primary-related vile BS will continue for a long time.
My impression from the news coverage leading up to today was that anything except a knockout victory by Romney would result in the thing just dragging on and on for at least a while longer. The way a lot of the primaries are now largely proportional rather than winner-take-all really contributes to that.
I don't know anything about the politics of Jean Schmidt's rival, but she seemed to have more ads on the air than any presidential candidate (though admittedly my sample size is one mealtime at a bar & grill Monday) and so people must have hated her as much as they should or something.
In other local news, I went out to our neighborhood bar to play tr/v/a and ended up winning because the final wager-your-points question turned out to be about THUNDERSNOW. I should probably send Stanley my free drink tickets, but I doubt he'll be here to use them in the next month.
51.1: 538 says Representative Jean Schmidt has lost to Tea-Party-backed candidate Ben Wenstrup in the Republican primary to represent Ohio's 2nd Congressional District. , so he may be even more wingnutty. For instance "Wenstrup Aims To Challenge Schmidt From Right". He apparently used her vote to raise the debt ceiling against her.
46: Looks like they're starting to call Ohio for Romney.
At that point ~99% of the votes were counted and the margin was 10,000 votes ( lose, but not razor-thin) so they weren't going out on a limb on it or anything.
Idaho is kind of interesting. Romney cleaned up, as expected, in the Mormon south. Got beat, often badly, in every panhandle county. It's a safe red state for the general, obviously. But one has to wonder what turnout is going to be like amongst white evangelicals in Indiana, NC, etc.
Virginia was interesting in the same way. Romney was supposed to win the two person race against Paul two or three to one. Instead he didn't quite manage three to two. Turnout was very low: given the opportunity to vote for Romney or Paul, most people declined.
Romney's win in Alaska looks awfully tepid. Worse than last time. Is Gingrich only staying in to make sure that Romney beats Santorum? I can totally see him doing a thing like that.
Santorum, on the other hand, is staying in for platform leverage at the convention, is my guess.
Have you ever tried to get Santorum out once it's had a chance to settle in?
I've been very disappointed recently in the mainstream news headlines for Santorum. I suspect that management cracked down on what had been an insiders' game.
Gingrich is looking for a VP spot.
It's hard to figure out what's driving Santorum. My guess is he thinks if he wins Texas, Pennsylvania and California, he can deny Romney a first ballot nomination. Which would cause a hell of a lot of telephone conversations in late June and the announcement in July that the Convention will be asked to ratify the selection of the Santorum/Gingrich ticket :).
Interestingly, there's a .6151 correlation between turnout and total population, which goes up rapidly if you hypothetically bump up Virginia's turnout. I guess this is natural, though - more delegates, more campaigning.
I suspect that management cracked down on what had been an insiders' game.
I don't know for sure. Still, I suspected that the headline writers were all in on the Dan Savage reference and were reveling in disingenuous innuendo for the cognoscenti. When the slang became common knowledge and Santorum himself started doing better in the polls, the headlines had one great streak of hilarity but now they're all serious.
63: Thundersnow the concept -- fluffy frozen water falling from the sky while giant discharges of static electricity that make loud noises. Not Thundersnow the vet/horse.
65. Heck, I had immediately invented a backstory where Thundersmow was a former Olympic three day eventer or some such.