"There will not be enough water available on current croplands to produce food for the expected 9 billion population in 2050 if we follow current trends and changes towards diets common in western nations."
If history/modern times are any indicator, it seems unlikely that people in the west would curtail their meat-eating just because people in other countries are starving to death as a result.
That's a pretty stupid article!
1. they didn't link to the Swedish report and 2. the "scientist" advocating vegetarian diets (Orion Jones, I guess?) is not an author of the report (and is not, as far as I can tell, a scientist). Which is not to say that the idea isn't a plausible one, or that it is not, in fact, recommended by the Swedish report. Just that they entirely fail to be convincing on those scores.
Alla them scientists are cawmuniss
I'm holding out hope for amorphous, non-sentient, lab-grown meat blobs.
Here's the Guardian version, which lacks anyone named for constellations/peepers. It's still silly, though, as heebie notes in 1.
I'm holding out hope for amorphous, non-sentient, lab-grown meat blobs.
From what I read they'll be coming to a supermarket near you by the end of the decade or thereabouts. But will producing them consume less water than a pig or a cow?
1
If history/modern times are any indicator, it seems unlikely that people in the west would curtail their meat-eating just because people in other countries are starving to death as a result.
Which is why such talk promotes paranoid conspiracy theories.
1: not having quite so many children would seem like a good plan in that case.
But then, if history/modern times are any indicator, it seems unlikely that people would curtail their baby-having just because their kids are going to be starving to death as adults as a result. See, for example, Yemen, a country which can't even feed itself now, but whose population is nevertheless going to double in the next twenty years.
1: not having quite so many children would seem like a good plan in that case.
Are you explicitly being a dick to me?
Are you explicitly being a dick to me?
Dicks are one of the leading causes of overpopulation.
9/10: Yeah, I definitely took the comment to be about world population and not h-g at all.
Ok. I withdraw 9 then (although it's clearly something I'm defensive about).
Heebie's 1 was my first reaction as well. The 'you' in "you may be forced to become a vegetarian" is probably not rich people.
I assume this just means meat will be more expensive. Which is fine with me. But when they start raising the price of cheese, ima get angry.
12
Yeah, I definitely took the comment to be about world population and not h-g at all.
Hard to be definite but it comes across to me as a poke at HG.
Poking HG with dicks is a lesser cause of overpopulation.
This is pretty clearly the media fixating on one aspect of the report. Vegetarianism is one option; more expensive meat is a more likely one.
The Class of 2016 will never know the McDouble was originally not vegan.
9 was absolutely not intended to be a dig at heebie. Sorry if it came across that way.
Who only has the two kids anyway if I remember rightly, so still below replacement TFR?
For the Class of 2026, Whoppers have always been made from crickets and grubworms.
No problem. (I mean, we do want to have more - with the minivan talk, I thought that might have been what you were riffing on.)
docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf
Here's a more comprehensive, and accurate, look at the global food system. The potential for meat consumption, globally, to outstrip available resources is based on the (correct) assumption that as world populations get richer they will want to eat more meat. But even so agricultural production will be fine with a few policy tweaks -- unless demand for biofuels so swamps the system and radically distorts agricultural practices.
Note also that this is a problem generated entirely by the world getting richer and more urban, that rates of demand growth are declining, and that world population is expected to peak at 2050 and then decline, as the world as a whole goes through demographic transition. The right global analysis is to expect a generally richer, better fed world in the aggregate, with (avoidable) spot shortages and demand crises, particularly if the world converts heavily to biofuels.
(The completely un-fucking-believably pimped out minivan which we now own.)
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf
Here, I should say.
(Which I named yesterday, driving it home. My old Volvo is a stickshift, so I called her Clutchy. The minivan is not, so I named him Otto.)
The strain on meat production is probably going to be compounded by the lack of any fish left in the ocean.
If I ever get a German car, I'm going to call it Bachman-Turner Uberdrive.
29: You can't do that! You're not Canadian!
I was swimming in the ocean this weekend, and one of the days the water was particularly opaque and full of seaweed and other detritus. I had been out in it a while and noticed a couple of times that one of my hands had run into something that seemed soft, like a cotton ball in the ocean or something. Looking more closely, I found that the water was full of tiny, clear jellyfish. They clearly weren't hurting me, but I was so grossed out that I had to go back to shore.
I'm holding out hope for amorphous, non-sentient, lab-grown meat blobs.
Unfortunately, those taste like despair.
28: I think the feed-the-world people are really into sustainable aquaculture.
31: I have actually eaten raw jellyfish (in China). They're not very nice.
I think the feed-the-world people are really into sustainable aquaculture.
Sustainable aquaculture would be nice, but I understand that aquaculture as it is generally practiced is pretty environmentally damaging. Raising fish in pens leads to large concentration of fish poop and bread diseases that spread to wild populations.
Also, there is the problem of tearing down mangroves to build shrimp farms, which I understand is the source of cheap and plentiful South-east Asian shrimp that don't seem to taste as good as the expensive and rare shrimp of my youth.
On the other hand, I think pond-raised tilapia might not be so bad, although they are rather boring as fish go.
and bread diseases that spread to wild populations
That would explain why my whole wheat isn't moving we fast this morning.
28 comments and no mention of Soylent Green yet? Blog is going to hell.
by the lack of any fish left in the ocean.
Well, in Japan, they are farming everything now. 80% of Red Sea Bream is farmed, kelp, oysters, tuna, name it.
But Japan has plenty of water.
But I suppose we will all have plenty of water, it is just a matter of the right kinds of water in the desired places. With a pipeline from Lake Michigan to Dallas, this can be managed. Just kidding.
...this video is an hour, but fascinating and encouraging about what can be done in a short period for a self-sustaining food ecology.
I wouldn't be worried about climate, population or food production if I had enough comrades supporting me on the politics of kill burn and steal. But as it is, because of qualms, billions instead of millions will die.
37: Oh yeah, aquaculture right now is dreadful.
33: I loved that show.
Unsurprisingly, I did too. Because, as we have established by now, when it comes to television-watching oudemia and I are the same person.
Stupid typos when mocking other people's typos.
Also, there is the problem of tearing down mangroves to build shrimp farms, which I understand is the source of cheap and plentiful South-east Asian shrimp that don't seem to taste as good as the expensive and rare shrimp of my youth.
You want a savory shrimp dinner, just like grand-dad used to have? Come here. Pull up a seat at a little place that I like to call America.
I like whatever the jellyfish appetizer is that I've had several times in Chinese restaurants, but I have no idea how it's prepared. Probably not raw?
Vaster than empires and not at all slow is the green world. Get out of the way and weeds will take over everything the minute you turn your back. They will fix carbon and nitrogen, clean the air and water, create herds of meat.
The only problem is people.
If I have to give up eating meat, fine. But can I have my kale and eat it too?
You want a savory shrimp dinner, just like grand-dad used to have? Come here. Pull up a seat at a little place that I like to call America.
True that its hard to beat Gulf shrimp for that zesty tang of crude oil.
When I was a boy, we learned to use every part of the shrimp. Except the hard part on the outside and the poop-laden tube. We didn't use those.
the hard part on the outside and the poop-laden tube
I loved that movie.
I hope you didn't use the eyes, because apparently Gulf shrimp no longer have those.
32: If you can go swimming at night, they're phosphorescent and lovely.
Someone already posted the actual Grauniad link, but this is the quote-they-left-out of the OP:
Other options to feed people include eliminating waste and increasing trade between countries in food surplus and those in deficit.
Err, spontaneous mass conversion to vegetarianism, or less waste and more trade? which plan would you back?
I, too, loved Better Off Ted.
I saw one episode on a plane and enjoyed it. You can't get it on DVD over here though.
32: Wait, we must have told you about a similar experience in Far Rockaway. AWB claimed you could tell they were trying to burrow into you (as you would see them burrowing into the sand on the beach each time a wave went out) but I suspect her of being fancifully tuned in to the grotesquerie of nature.
But as it is, because of qualms, billions instead of millions will die.
Calm down, tweaker.
32: Looking more closely, I found that the water was full of tiny, clear jellyfish. They clearly weren't hurting me, but I was so grossed out that I had to go back to shore.
Was this on the Cape? (Cape Cod?) Years ago I had a long weekend with some friends there whose cabin was on a cove ... filled with such tiny, clear jellyfish. I confess I couldn't take it and refused to swim, or windsail or anything, further. Just a thing, about jellyfish, while everyone else continued on their merry jellyfish-stewn ways, shrugging.
Other side of the Cape -- Buzzard's Bay.
37: Sustainable aquaculture would be nice, but I understand that aquaculture as it is generally practiced is pretty environmentally damaging. Raising fish in pens leads to large concentration of fish poop and bread diseases that spread to wild populations.
Is there any hope for urban aquaculture? I've seen a couple of pieces about this starting up in Baltimore -- I think they recycle/reuse the poop as fertilizer somehow? I don't imagine it would scale up, and as I recall they were pretty limited in the sorts of fish they could raise, but were hoping to interest local chefs in developing menus highlighting said fish.
I'll try to find the article(s).
Poop's efficacy as fertilizer is storied. One can only assume that fish poop fertilizer would make for very smart plants.
It's pretty hard to get fish to poop in a litter box.
61: I have definitely seen plans for combined aquaculture/greenhouse systems -- the fishpond with the tilapia in it is the thermal mass for your greenhouse as well as generating fertilizer for the plants, and while I can't remember what tilapia eat that fits into the whole thing someway too.
My sense of aquaculture generally is sort of salt-water bad, freshwater good: if you're penning apex-predator fish offshore and harvesting great masses of baitfish to feed them, that spreads disease and overfishes the baitfish population and is lousy. If you're raising freshwater fish in a pond and they're eating agricultural waste, that's much better.
Saltwater mollusc kinda not so bad, some ways, right?
I had some really great mussels last weekend. I'm not sure how they were for the environment.
Yeah, I've read several feed-the-world vegany types make the argument that farmed oysters are super sustainable and (by their reckoning) vegan.
61, 64: It's not salt/fresh as much as closed/open, for diseases.
The Dwarf Lord has been reading up on aquaculture, and tight-loop systems look pretty good except that they depend on healthy ecosystems for wild fish to reproduce in. Aquaculture mostly fattens caught fish. Exceptions for some species, of course.
The piece on urban aquaculture -- actually aquaponics -- is here.
They're (just) growing prawns.
The Prawn Shop team figured out that if they could raise prawns in freshwater, all of the waste could be used as nutrients for an aquaponics operation (aquaponics is the combination of aquaculture with hydroponics). A system of pipes will use the dirty water to fertilize vegetables and algae--a process that will purify the water, which is then re-circulated back to the tanks. In addition to the vegetables, which can be eaten, the algae will produce oxygen, which is good for the shrimp and can be harvested as feed for animals ("Chickens fed on algae produce great green eggs," says Ganz) or to produce biofuel.
69: Closed/open is much more what I meant, but I think it tends to correlate with salt/fresh, just because what are you going to do with salt water?
Seafood Watch rates farmed oysters Best, better than wild-caught.
71: more important to not finish ruining our freshwater systems.
Yeah, I've been told that oyster farms are a net good.
Brine a turkey?
Save a cowboy.
The problem with those integrated-system, tight loop projects is that they sound very much like the kind of Southern Chinese ducks-and-pigs-and-chooks-and-fish-and-people-in-a-small-boat set up that breeds fascinating new highly pathogenic influenza viruses.
Obviously, if you're running the air through all kinds of filters and composting the shit and testing all the time, that's going to help, but still...
It seems unlikely that adding fish into the mix would spread disease to humans, doesn't it? They're just way too far off. (Not that I know in detail, I've just never heard of catching anything from fish.)
What about aquaculture on space elevators? The loop opens to: the void!
Clearly LB has never been laid low with Ich.
I didn't think that fish had anything to do with the flu. I thought it was just ducks, pigs, and people. I suppose you could still get a super-fish germ that would kill lots of fish.
69: The Dwarf Lord has been reading up on aquaculture, and tight-loop systems look pretty good except that they depend on healthy ecosystems for wild fish to reproduce in.
Yeah, I can see that. A tight-loop aquaculture system is no substitute for attending to the natural ecosystem itself, though that doesn't mean the former can't or shouldn't be developed along with.
On the OP and comments 15, 18: I'm not following how meat (not seafood) merely becoming more expensive is "all" that a dearth of water supply means. It means that while some will pay more for meat, increasingly more will starve for the lack of water resources directed to actual crops.
This discussion is spiraling inexorably towards carp, but whether that will tempt Emerson into joining is unknowable.
I've just never heard of catching anything from fish.
Two words: intestinal parasites.
True. Wasn't thinking of those.
85: That is true, but that does limit the person-to-person spreading of the disease.
VTDs are real, but if you practice safe booting, you can dramatically minimize your risk.
I can't remember what tilapia eat
I believe they eat corn, same as everyone else.
A fish-originated, vomit-transmitted disease might wipe out Dartmouth, which would be a net win for humanity.
The problem with those integrated-system, tight loop projects is that they sound very much like the kind of Southern Chinese ducks-and-pigs-and-chooks-and-fish-and-people-in-a-small-boat set up that breeds fascinating new highly pathogenic influenza viruses.
I have a bizarre story from my work about a similar topic that never fails to entertain when I recount it. Unfortunately, it's a bit too convoluted to condense to a blog comment. Let's just say that I have personally generated a set of PowerPoint slides containing multiple instances of the words "swine mortality"*, and someone paid real money for it. Anyone who wants to know more, you have to buy me a drink at the next meet-up.
*technically, it was a foreign language equivalent of those words
A fishsheep-originated, vomit-transmitted disease might wipe out Dartmouth, which would be a net win for humanity.
FTFY
92: like in the musical, Schweine Tod.
Anyone who wants to know more, you have to buy me a drink at the next meet-up.
I think most of the Boston unfoggedetariat already owes you and Fleur at least 7 drinks each from past meetups.
"Swine Mortality" was the name of my garage band in high school.
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I just told my students that they could leave after the test, and heard one of them mutter "I fucking love college." High school does suck.
|>
89: I believe they eat corn, same as everyone else.
This made me laugh. I feel as though there was an ad campaign at some time in the past proclaiming "100% corn-fed beef!" though I may be imagining that.
People's perceptions are weird. I had the oddest charming conversation with an elderly gent this morning at the grocery store. I was perusing the mayonnaise options (I know, don't start, I haven't bought mayo in 5 years).
Gent: Oh, I have a terrible time with those squeeze bottles, can't get the last bit out.
Me: Truth is, I can never finish the smallest container before the rest goes bad -- wish they sold this in smaller containers. Like travel-size.
Gent: Well, they make us pay for the smaller containers; the big jars are on sale, two for five dollars. Here they are, right here. [he came back around to point them out]
Me: I'd never be able to use all that up, before it went bad. I'm wondering whether the squeeze bottles expire sooner than the glass jars. [ed: this is me peering at the expiration dates, looking for an escape]
Gent: Oh. Couldn't say. Anyway, you save money if you just buy the two big jars on sale and throw the rest out if it goes bad.
99.
Kewpie mayonnaise is easier to squeeze out than the hard plastic bottles. With respect to your concern about wasting what you won't use up, don't worry about it, as I think you'll find the mayonnaise quite serviceable as a soft cuddle toy. (For this, it helps to warm the bottle briefly in the microwave. It will fit into cabbage patch kid clothing, preemie size.)
It's weird nobody's tried to sell beer in squeeze bottles.
Has anybody sold anything carbonated in squeeze bottles?
I hope it's clear that buying two big jars for $5 and throwing 95% of it out does not actually save more money than buying the smaller either squeeze bottle or jar for $2.79. Because it doesn't.
There's probably some scene populated by people with a mayo-wasting fetish. They hang around stores convincing people to buy more mayo than they could ever use and then come home watch the Food Network naked.
106: And some go for Miracle Whip.
What you need to do is start eating mayonnaise with a spoon, straight from the jar - like peanut butter.
What about a mayonnaise-whiz can, so one could make a swirly mayonnaise spiral directly into someone else's mouth?
(LIKE JIZZ SOMEONE MAKE A JIZZ JOKE)
SOMEONE MAKE A JIZZ JOKE
Why did the jizz cross the road?
Alas, I am really tired of jizz jokes after we watched two comedy specials last night that featured long, long segments on how white women get black guys because they've long known how to give blowjobs and black women should/must/might catch up, et fucking c.
They're really running low on quality content for the Interracial Blowjob Jokes Channel since the Olympics ended.
110: That's the only way I can see using that much mayo (as food), *although* my aunt, when she was raising three strapping boys, went through quite a bit of it. I recall gallon jars. They could eat two pounds of pasta or potato salad in one sitting, so she was cooking industrial quantities.
SO423 -- Mayo and BJs: Appreciating White Culture
Today's Dr. McNinja features a jizz joke narrowly avoided.
118: BJT: the sandwich of a race.
"Rene, what are you doing?!?"
"I am Rene the French Fighter Pilot. When I jizz, it is onto a sandwich!"
What you need to do is start eating mayonnaise with a spoon, straight from the jar - like with peanut butter.
My sister used to love PB&M sandwiches as a child.
Everyone wants me to vomit and then die.
My sister used to love PB&M sandwiches as a child.
.
GROSS.
PB&M sandwiches
The integrity of my sleep has been forever compromised, sir.
I know, right? At least you didn't have to watch them being made and eaten.
I still react violently to the sight of egg salad, solely based on middle school memories of it stuck in braces. Shiver.
I am enjoying the image of oudemia punching the shit out of an egg salad while making hulk noises.
I am amused that nobody batted an eye on the other thread mentioning corprophagy and emetophagy, but suddenly someone mentions mayonnaise and everyone is squicked out.
132: Not MY braces! (Argh argh argh why did I even think of that.)
133: I'm about equally bothered by coprophagy and mayo, and also things like wobbly congealed meat fat. I can't talk about this anymore.
Predictably, I love mayonnaise. You commies.
It's just oil, eggs, a mild acid, and mustard. All those things are good by themselves, right.
Plus, without mayo, there would be no tartar sauce.
Bison don't have to eat corn. And if the southern plains can't support hay anymore, then wouldn't it be great to have 20 million or so bison wandering around.
138: well, okay, that addresses one third of Thorn's comment.
Mayo isn't bad on a bison burger; it's pretty lean, and adding a little oil doesn't make it such a mess.
I'm about equally bothered by coprophagy and mayo, and also things like wobbly congealed meat fat.
How do you feel about really rich (i.e. gelatinous) stock? I have some kind of wobbly chicken stock.
I don't understand the mayo revulsion. I like egg salad. One of my favorite foods is a chicken sandwich (breast, warmed a bit) with cheddar and mayo on toast.
144 gets it exactly right.
I don't understand how people can hate mayo, either. Mayo is awesome. Although I didn't really start eating it until I was an adult.
I didn't like mayo as a kid either. But then I tried it, and realized that it tasted good. That really turned things around.
I will be procrastinating here and taking questions for about 25 minutes starting at 6:30 eastern time.
Dear Mr. President: what are your feelings about mayonnaise? Also hyenas.
I liked mayo more as a kid, but I don't dislike it now. I do find it blands out tastes in many sandwiches so I usually don't order it.
151 cont'd: also jokes about jizz.
I didn't like mayo as a kid either. But then I tried it, and realized that it tasted good. That really turned things around.
Quite.
152: See, here is where I will lose Thorn, I'm thinking. I like homemade aioli just fine.
[Good Lord. A not very close friend, but someone who I liked a lot, has killed himself. Apparently losing his job related. Two young kids, one of whom is very close to my kid's age. In our last conversation, I promised to contact him about taking him to a baseball game and setting our kids up on a playdate. I (in typical manner) never followed up on any of that). Now I'm wondering whether it's remotely appropriate to comment on his Facebook page announcing the death, since I didn't know the guy that well and don't know his wife at all. Jesus Christ. To hell with depression and to hell with this business.]
Sorry for posting this here, but I've got to say something somewhere.
158: It's pretty much always appropriate to say "I'm sorry for your loss." IMX the accumulation of those helps regardless of the depth of each one.
That's awful. Sympathy.
I think it is appropriate to say something on his Facebook page.
I hope it's clear that buying two big jars for $5 and throwing 95% of it out does not actually save more money than buying the smaller either squeeze bottle or jar for $2.79. Because it doesn't.
Why don't you buy one big jar for $2.50, instead of buying a small bottle for $2.79? Also, mayonnaise is a crucial ingredient in many delicious foods.
I agree with Biohazard. If your kids already know each other, it might also be worthwhile to privately offer baby-sitting to the spouse.
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Outcome: IA investigation. Brief suspension. Recommendation for demotion or note on file. Appeal. No penalties. 20 years later they give him a medal.
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158: That's very sad. I agree that posting something on the FB page, however brief, will be a comfort. Maybe a real letter or email sometime down the road?
I was just going to say 163. But even without offering babysitting, definitely say something -- it'll either be some comfort or it won't be noticed at all.
49: I guess the human centipede thing could be used as an efficiency thought experiment, although there would seem to be an explicit class conundrum.
OK. Private message sent. What an unbelievably horrible situation, and so weird to watch it play out on Facebook.
Watching matters of life and death play out on facebook is painfully strange indeed.