You were pwned around comment 300 of the previous thread.

I'm ok with that.

pwned!

At this point, every single binder joke I have seen on the internet has led to someone linking to this story. If these jokes are tailed everywhere they go on the internet by a link saying that Romney is a liar, the meme can do real damage to his campaign.

3: pwned!

4: ...the meme can do real damage to his campaign

Normally I would think this is ridiculous, but after seeing such a gigantic poll swing after one stupid-ass debate, I don't know how the world works anymore.

after seeing such a gigantic poll swing after one stupid-ass debate, I don't know how the world works anymore

Polls are not a reliable indicator of much of anything.

Happy to help!

7: Polls are not a reliable indicator of much of anything.

Didn't hear that a lot several weeks ago.

Must not have asked me about it.

Holy crap, I can't believe the GOP are actually trying to reclaim and re-message the whole binder thing.

Somewhat more seriously, I am mildly surprised at this point that anybody pays attention to anything besides (1) economic fundamentals and maybe (2) Nate Silver's daily distributtion of model runs (which incorporates (1), of course). Looking directly at anything else seems somewhere on a continuum between confusing and actively misleading a/f/a providing information about the likely possible outcome of the election. Even the model runs are pretty noisy, at that.

"Binder" is the "strategery" of this election cycle.

11: I had this conversation with a prominent blogger of my acquaintance the other day, a blogger who should know better but who has nevertheless been hanging his hat on polling lately. He said, "The people want it." Fair enough

10: Yeah, they've had a lot of success pushing stuff into public discourse by sheer force of will, but if I were them, I'd just try to walk away from "binders."

On the other hand, the binders thing is a rare example of partisan Democrats successfully pushing a meme. A Soros-funded PAC was on top of it within two minutes of the utterance.

13: I have noticed that blogger doing that, I think. He really should know better.

I am mildly surprised at this point that anybody pays attention to anything besides...Nate Silver's daily distributtion of model runs

The swing which I just mentioned and you pooh-poohed was in Nate Silver's model runs...

13: Economic determinism contains some important insights, but it's becoming overrated. I'm confident that bin Laden tried to turn the 2004 election, and I don't think it's impossible that he succeeded. And even if you buy that economic determinism foretold Gore's popular vote victory, there are some important additional details to that story.

16: yep. Even the model runs are pretty noisy. But the modal point of the model distribution never changed.

Thoughts on Silver vs. Douchebag University Election Cosortium? I feel like I'm trusting the PEC guy more this cycle, and he's more interesting.

17: economic factors don't comprise a perfect predictor by any means. Just the best extant one.

And, specifically talking about 2004, they did quite well, if I recall. Much better than the strategy I employed at the time, which was some combination of selective poll reading, wishful thinking, and a belief in my own ability to find the unpolled externalities that really mattered.

Don't those economic models perform horribly out of sample?

19: I assume that if I tried to pick one or another I would likely as not introduce my own bias, so I'm sticking with Silver. Actually I kind of hate myself for looking at any of them, but here we are.

Here Silver argues that they suck.
Here he explains how he uses economic data, but I haven't read it yet.

23: his model (this year, at least) before the conventions was heavily weighted towards economic indicators, and he talks about them very often in his accompanying posts. So in my "pick an expert who has been reasonably cogent and stick with their model" strategy, economic factors also carry weight.

24: Yeah, Silver is the gold standard. But for an election obsessive, following individual polls is a legitimate method of getting the jump on Silver. It takes him a day (or whatever) to assess the polls.

Silver is the gold standard.

That's what I keep saying.

So, if there is a 35% chance I will feel like shit on November 6, should I feel like 35% shit now?

27

So, if there is a 35% chance I will feel like shit on November 6, should I feel like 35% shit now?

You could bet some money on Romney. Then if he loses you can think of it as like a campaign contribution to Obama and if he wins at least you will win your bet.

As far as I can tell, Nate Silver's estimate is a pretty good sufficient statistic for all the information we have concerning the probability of Obama's reelection. If you're looking at any individual poll you're looking at just one draw, Silver summarizes it all. So you're adding fretting but not information by looking at a poll (unless you can't bear to wait a day).

Shearer, who would you like to bet on?

Also, is anyone else impressed by how effectively campaign spin, debates, etc. functions to divert attention from actual issues to stupid trivial squabbles over the details of what somebody said? I mean, our involvement in Libya and the Middle East in general is a *really important issue*, could not be more important, and here we are arguing over whether Obama said "terror" or "terrorism" the day after the embassy killings. Which suits both campaigns, as neither wants a real foreign policy debate.

Where Silver could be badly misleading is if a bunch of polls (especially large sample size polls) were actually biased, for example due to not sampling cell phones. Then Silver's analysis could be quite misleading compared to looking at a small number of unbiased polls. But he seems to do a good, scrupulous job looking for that possibility. Certainly better than I could.

30

Shearer, who would you like to bet on?

I don't care enough to be interested. I haven't even gotten up the energy to enter Kevin Drum's prediction contest.

32

Where Silver could be badly misleading is if a bunch of polls (especially large sample size polls) were actually biased, for example due to not sampling cell phones. Then Silver's analysis could be quite misleading compared to looking at a small number of unbiased polls. But he seems to do a good, scrupulous job looking for that possibility. Certainly better than I could.

I think Silver makes some allowance for model errors.

15: the annoying thing is that he does know better. Not that he's a go-to guy for numbers or anything, but he's aware of the methodological limitations of polling. Which means that he's running a business, so he's giving the people what they want. Again, fair enough. Still, it's kind of icky to watch in real time, as it suggests that politics is just another reality show, which leaves me feeling gross about myself and the relatively high-information portion of the electorate that frequents his site.

And since this is mostly a dead thread, take a look at this, which, for me, has served as a pretty stark reminder that Citizens United has real-world consequences. I mean, 30 might have gone down regardless (that's a story unto itself). And it might still pass. And even if it doesn't pass, the UC and my kids' elementary school will still be standing. But holy hell, UC students will be hit with an immediate (as in, mid-year) 20% tuition hike, departments will be cut (no matter what the deans are saying, this is unequivocally true), and there will be even more students crammed into secondary school classrooms (my kids both have 33 other pupils in their classes this year). It's pretty dire and suggests that politics is more than a reality show.

The details on Romney's tax plan are finally out.

31: So here's my question on that. Why is it supposed to be a gotcha that the president didn't immediately tell the media/American public everything our intelligence peeps knew about the situation? Isn't it sort of expected that we show restraint with intelligence information?

Also, did Romney have binders full of Latinos or African Americans or LGBT? If not, why not? Is he some kind or racist or homophobe?

Many, many people have eaten 36's marshmallow.

I think I've used the power of deduction to figure out who Von Wafe is talking about. It's Steven DenBeste.

36 is the first I'd heard of it, and I do appreciate the link.

Also, VW, unfortunately, having a shadowy group pump $11 million at the last minute before a California ballot initiative was legal even before Citizens United (I think). So I'm not sure we can blame that one on the Supremos.

But anyone in California who can should get out and vote (or, better yet, give money or campaign for) Prop 30. It's that important. However, the polling I've heard about is mostly reassuring.

If you live in California, and stay home and don't vote, and don't vote yes on 30, there is a good chance I will punch you in the face if I meet you in person.

37: To the extent there is any point, I think the idea is that the President wasn't man enough to call out the terrorists and say terrorism terrorism terrorism after the terrorists killed someone. There is a connection to this supposed 'apologizing' for an anti-Muslim video that some other diplomats did at the time. It's all bullshit of course, on both sides.

To the extent there is a real scandal involved in this specific incident, it's the underfunding of embassy security. We should know that the price of being a widely hated country is that you need to maintain your embassies as armed camps. Embassy security is one of the security-related but not DoD discretionary accounts that gets very underfunded in the discretionary spending squeeze.

Those who are dispirited at this point in the 2012 election cycle can always read Paul Constant's utterly partisan but cheering assessment of last night's debate. Just in case you need a pep rally.

However, the polling I've heard about is mostly reassuring.

I wonder if I shouldn't say this, but UC's internal polling has it at 51%. And everyone I talked to in the senior leadership was planning, even before the $11 million dollar windfall for the bad guys, for it to fail. As you know, somewhere between 7 and 9/10 undecideds will break no in the event.

As you say, if people, even people outside California, are looking for something to do with their political energy, there are worse things to support than 30.

We should know that the price of being a widely hated country is that you need to maintain your embassies as armed camps.

I understood that Chris Stevens was against precisely that, and it was his embassy. He spoke fluent Arabic and was a fan of engagement rather than fortress behavior, so I've understood.

Also, and oddly given that I haven't heard it repeated anywhere else, Jennifer Granholm said on one of the Sunday talk shows last weekend that the request out of Libya for more security was for Tripoli, not Benghazi. Stevens was apparently in the process of moving from Tripoli to Benghazi. I don't know what to make of this, and none of us can.

And everyone I talked to in the senior leadership was planning, even before the $11 million dollar windfall for the bad guys, for it to fail.

I may be rationalizing, but this would make sense even if they believed it likely to pass (say 75%), since if it fails, the budget situation for everyone will quickly devolve into chaos, and they'll need a ready response.

37

So here's my question on that. Why is it supposed to be a gotcha that the president didn't immediately tell the media/American public everything our intelligence peeps knew about the situation? Isn't it sort of expected that we show restraint with intelligence information?

The quibbling about this doesn't impress me but it does seem apparent that there was some unjustified complacency about the security situation in Libya.

48: probably true. But their pessimism was founded on polling data, which we all know is god's own truth.

I heard much stronger numbers about a week ago, but your 51% is scary.

Could be worse:

My last prediction, that Obama would switch parties, has not yet happened. My new one is that Obama, after the next financial crash and GDx10 in spring 2012, will withdraw his candidacy somewhere around July, leaving Russ a clear path to the nomination, and annihilation in November. Romney/Perry or Perry/Bachman is our future

And then, the bombs fall! And after the ash has settled, the world is given over to the squirrels.

the world is given over to the squirrels

I've come to the conclusion that this would probably be for the best.

God have mercy on the Commonwealth of Kentucky when the squirrels exact their rightful vengeance.

THE CRIMES OF THIS GUILTY LAND WILL NEVER BE WASHED AWAY SAVE WITH NUTS.

If the world is given over to squirrels, I predict world war IV will involve squirrels versus corvids.

Endless amusement watching squirrels and crows/rooks/ravens fighting over food around our place, at the moment.

54: I suspect that as well as having gone to nerd camp, every KY-raised commenter will also have eschewed that particular delicacy.

The Squirrel General Staff is concerned about the corvids' largely uncontested air superiority, as well as the squirrels' unfavorable tooth-to-tail ratio.

every KY-raised commenter will also have eschewed that particular delicacy

More the fool they!

I predict world war IV will involve squirrels versus corvids.

Probably true, on the basis of observation round here. In which case my money goes on the dinosaurs in the short term. But the squirrels may have a long game - mammals have seen them off once already...

59: You're not supposed to eat the brains these days, are you?

||

Please God, let this be even directionally true. We are overdue for a worthy successor to Teddy Kennedy in the Senate.

|>

My squirrel is getting cold but nobody will answer me.

62: Hah - just came over here to link that myself. It sure would be nice to have a high-profile liberal in the Senate.

And as far as I know she's never even drowned anybody while drunk!

62, 64: Not that I follow the polls or anything.

65: She's also never divided the Democratic party by running for president as if he never even drowned anybody while drunk.

62: My parents just registered to vote here, and, for reasons I can't fathom, my mother registered as a Republican, but she's committed to voting for Warren.

I wish that we had early voting in this state.

the squirrels' unfavorable tooth-to-tail ratio.

The squirrels have a much better tooth-to-tail ratio than the corvids, though.

One would assume the corvids would use their superior powers of recognition to quickly engage in targeted airstrikes against the squirrel leaders.

Either that or they'd set devious traps and watch, amused, from the shadows.

The squirrels would be fucked, is what I'm saying.

Crazy pixelated guy thinks I'm a jerk for linking to that.

61: I think only that one guy got BSE that way. Well, maybe a few guys. But as I said, I wouldn't know!

61, 74. There you are then. Your odds are about 300,000:1. Or maybe about 3:1. Who knows?

Now go and microwave that squirrel and warm it up again.

72: Wasn't there a one that spun the squirrels? I think Stanley linked to it a while back.

I'm not allowed to put squirrel in the microwave anymore. It's an office rule.

76: The Yankee Flipper!

Maybe there's a Yankee Clipper that does a quick vasectomy while spinning the squirrel.

for reasons I can't fathom, my mother registered as a Republican

There's still lots of atavistic Yankee Republicans, for the same reason registered Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans in some deeply red states in the South. Party identification was a mark of communal and (in New England) class identity. To be a Democrat is to consort with papists, union agitators and Irishmen. The remnants of that generation are slowly disappearing, but they are still around.

||

NMM : Sylvia Kristel

Yes! Stop! Now!

|>

Further to 80, one day my children will be astounded to learn that their father was alive in an era when Vermont was the most reliably Republican and Mississippi the most reliably Democratic state in the nation. Heck, *I* am astounded by that sometimes.

To be a Democrat is to consort with papists, union agitators and Irishmen.

Same difference.

My grandfather made the jump around the time of the March on Washington, but I imagine he found his bedfellows disconcerting for quite a while afterwards.

81: When you pry my cold, dead hands from.... wait, that's kind of gross, isn't it?

My grandfather made the jump around the time of the March on Washington

See, that's weird, because the parties had not really polarized along Civil Rights lines in 1963. By the election of 1964 it was starting to become apparent which way the wind was blowing, and by 1972 the Dems were irrevocably committed to racial equality as a party, while the GOP had swum neck-deep into the cesspool of racial resentment. But in 1963, you could still say "Party of Lincoln" with a straight face.

What in the world is 52 quoting from?

I suppose I don't know the specifics of the timing. I know that it was because of the civil rights movement, so probably sometime after '64 at least would make more sense.

86: Our popular local oracle.

86: From beloved maverick and political seer without peer bobby mcm.

Further to 80, one day my children will be astounded to learn that their father was alive in an era when Vermont was the most reliably Republican and Mississippi the most reliably Democratic state in the nation. Heck, *I* am astounded by that sometimes.

Heck, Dukakis only won ten states, and one was West Virginia. And only two were in New England. And he was from New England!

It's amazing how quickly things change.

86:And here I was waiting for Halford and my intellectual property suit against ajay. Y'all saved him.

It has been a summer of disappointment.

80: Yeah, but my Mom has taken to watching Par Robertson. Also my Mother's family is weird. Although her father was Episcopalian, her mother was Roman Catholic and that's how she was raised. My grandmother was born an Episcopalian (in NY, I think), but they moved from DC in around 1918--when she would have been 8 or so--to France where they converted.

Par Robertson

He's a very average preacher.

And no jokes about her being insane, because she is, actually, quite mentally ill.

I did get her to agree with me that today's Republican party is not her father's Republican party. She's started to come around on gay rights, but she's still against abortion.

I can say that she finds Scott Brown personally off-putting. I think she described him as a "dud".

You all did look at the interactive Nate Silver chart plotting voting history by state, right?

95: I didn't think Nate Silver made it but it's a cool graphic.

Linky linky.

True, they stuck it on his blog but the byline is someone else.

It's amazing how quickly things change.

You know what I find odd? That Mitt Romney's shitstain kid says that during the debate he wanted to take a swing at the President of the United States and nobody is picking up the story and running with it. Leaving aside the obvious double-standard -- if candidate Obama's adult son suggested the same of President Romney, the lad would be tased on national television and sent to Gitmo -- there used to be a time when even the opposition suggested that people needed to respect the office if not the man. Romney, meanwhile, isn't even fauxpologizing with a "boys will be boys" for Tagg.

That comment made it sound like I care. I don't. I was just remarking on what I see as a very quick change in the nature of campaign rhetoric.

I bet it would be an even bigger story if Obama's daughter said it.

99 - And nobody is noting that if Tagg doesn't want to hear Obama call his dad a liar, maybe his dad shouldn't lie so much. Have Romney's bald-faced lies about the Blunt Amendment or Pell Grants gotten a single moment's attention from anyone who counts?

99-101: The folks on the right have always been better at and have relied more heavily on faux outrage and pearl clutching than the folks on the left. This is unlikely to change anytime soon.

99-102: The asymmetry of coverage over the last 20 years is too mind-boggling to even get your head around. It 's something of a "big lie" syndrome--most of the media and "serious" folks cannot even scratch the surface or their whole constructed narrative comes tumbling down. Part of why I honestly believe the mainstream political media in this country is a far graver threat to my family's well-being than any external threat.

Recall for instance that as briefly mentioned here, an elected Republican official in Texas suggested that local folks might revolt if Obama is elected. Imagine an elected Dem saying that in 2004.

The media companies are really just companies with outsized PR departments using "indirect" methods of promotion and political lobbying. I can even "empathize" a bit with the employees in the PR department--but their output should be interpreted as such and treated as less than useless as an actual news source for anything beyond car wrecks and murders.

File under "the choir, preaching to".

My New England political mystery is New Hampshire. Why, when every other NE state's Republicans became national Democrats, why did such a huge portion of the NH Republican party stay as conservative Republicans? To the point where it's still a very competitive state?

106: Because all the rich tax refugees from Boston moved there?

Further to 107, NH is becoming bluer all the time as the population mix changes. Keep in mind that the parts of northern New England unaffected by in-migration (the Northeastern Kingdom of Vermont and Aroostook County, Maine) resemble traditional New Hampshire politically.

Shorter 104" "Tom Brokaw is alive and Osama Bin Laden is dead."

106: Yeah, good question. Recall that NH is the "live free or die" state, with no state income tax, no sales tax, no state-level estate tax, no motorcycle helmet laws -- I think it may even still be optional to have car insurance (not sure about this, but I believe it used to be so). Native NHers (-ites?) are pretty damned libertarian, though they might not use the term.

I don't know *why* that's so, though.

A Romney base voter, unfortunately for Romney he's French Recommended listening for those who understand francais, it'll give you an excuse for that lunchtime drink.

Alas, I don't speak French.

For English counter, there's always this report from a Romney debate watch party in Nevada. Portions:

It wasn't until after the debate ended that the room hit peak-conspiracy theory.

"Did you notice the Muslim Islamic marriage inscription on Obama's wedding ring?" a woman nearby asked me. I said I hadn't. "He's got an Islamic wedding ring that he got when he turned 16 from the head of the Islamic church," she explained. "Michelle doesn't have that because she's not Muslim but he is."

Why does he hide his supposed-faith, I asked. "He wants America to go broke, because he doesn't want America to succeed. He wants America to be taken over by the Islamic world," she told me.

Apparently there's also a rumor going around that security staff at the Benghazi consulate on Sept. 11, 2012 weren't allowed to carry loaded weapons.

This bothers me somewhat, as my work partner repeated it to me with great concern and utter conviction the other day. He was telling me a secret truth, to his mind -- something he heard from a retired military guy. Yet apparently it's been somewhat debunked. I'm not sure whether I should take this up with him again.

Tell him that his attention to Benghazi stroies like this reveal him as an utter dickwad and tool of the right-wing echo chamber.

Latest development there is that implacable foe of the United States of America, Darrel Issa has carelessly released documents which according to Foreign Policy has compromised the identities of several Libyans working with the U.S. government.

114.1 is precisely what I cannot tell him, because it will shock him beyond belief. He's a dedicated Obama supporter, no question on that. (In truth, he's an UMC aspirational person who's blind to a lot of things, but doesn't really realize that. It's annoying me more and more.)

Musing on this in last short while, I want to say that there's such a thing as a medium-information voter.

111 -- Dude what a piker. 70k Euros/year doesn't seem like that huge a salary. He should ferme his gueule.

It's true that one doesn't really expect French people to be assholes in quite that way, but.

I became Facebook friends with this French guy here who drives a food truck. It turns out he's a Front National style ultra-right-winger in terms of French politics, and posts in French anti-Islamic screeds and lots of stuff about how Francois Hollande is raping everyone. Meanwhile, he posts anti-Republican screeds in English (mostly about how Republicans are bad on gay rights and abortion). Mostly I guess he's kind of dumb, but he does have excellent processed meats and cheeses in his truck.

Huh, he's got pro-Obama stuff as well on his Facebook page. I wonder how many combination Obama/Marine Le Pen supporters there are out there, especially with really good homemade chorizo in a truck.

It still makes more sense than the plot of Dark Shadows . I don't understand how this got made with real actors.

There are two things in the world you never want to let people see how you make 'em—laws and sausages.

I have a new opinion on copyright law. The term should be thirty years or until you have a character revealed as a werewolf with no foreshadowing or appreciable effect on the plot.