This means the Mayans were right, doesn't it?
This actually resembles, except for the central pun conceit, the sort of email forward one would get from a well-meaning granny or such like.
Gay marriage could have a surprising effect on this erection.
Also, I'm pretty sure that this post is super racist.
What ever happened to "Americans Erect"?
I told you all that ogged would return in our hour of need.
Shit, someone hacked the front page- Neb, can you fix?
Joe Biden said he might have another local erection for city council.
"His speech is Sunbelt Swish -- a lisp on a twang, occasionally supplemented by feigned R and L confusion, particularly when he has a chance to use the phrase "President-elect.""
My college roommate, a Japanese guy, once noticed that his audience was giggling as he delivered his presentation in his American Elections class. He proceeded to play it to the hilt 'inadequacy', 'poor performance', 'weakness', and so on - all while making absolutely sure that his initial anxiety fueled screw up was consistently repeated.
Gay marriage may have a surprising impact on this erection
You misspelled "Guest Post - Ogged."
Sounds like you're getting more confident, baa.
I might cry, too. Or that's the fever.
I am afraid this erection will disappoint many of my friends.
The Twelfth Imam! I expected something holier, to be honest.
Women are showing an enthusiasm gap for this erection.
Oh great. Just when we really didn't want a sign of the end times.
Now I can say I've been here long enough to remember when Ogged posted.
Republicans: Suppressing erection performance around the nation.
Democrats: Working for better erections for America.
I suddenly feel much better about this erection. And now, off to bike up a mountain. This may get uncomfortable.
31 Watch out, you know what science has to say about the impact of biking on elections.
This erection would have been entirely different with more stimulus.
Yay ogged! Unless these really are the End Times. Your peeps miss you. My iPhone tried to auto-corect ogged as offed which made me wonder whether we had successfully offed ogged.
34: not a single thread can go up without the circumcision abolitionists showing up.
||Anyone up for celebrating or mourning America's Most Important Erection?>|
This is what you've been sitting on all these years?
39: He's been sitting on erections all these years.
It's true that I don't have a knack for this kind of post.
4 gets it exactly right. I am heading for a bomb shelter.
Ogged! baa!! Joe D!!!
Q: Can the Gayatollah be far behind?
A: No, the Gayatollah can never be far behind. He is near behind.
Heebie doesn't have a sack for this kind of post.
Is this like the end of Battleship where the old veterans save the world from the aliens? Are there aliens? Do we need to stop them?
ogged's reappearance is making this erection bigger than I could have imagined!
At the end of a long, hard campaign, the President-erect was too knackered to fill the promise of his new title.
Also, I cannot believe the speed that the old-timers have come out of the woodwork. Have you guys been sitting there hitting refresh for 4.5 years, hoping for rapture?
Does this mean tonight we'll all have a happy ending?
50: But I guess that means the erection is over.
I rss
...turbated a lot as a kid.
So what happens to Stanley now that Ogged's back?
Depends. How does he feel about cargo?
Ogged, you did bring cargo, right?
Also, I cannot believe the speed that the old-timers have come out of the woodwork. Have you guys been sitting there hitting refresh for 4.5 years, hoping for rapture?
Though it does feel a bit like a "very special final episode."
I can't figure out the cargo-erection pun.
Moby, it's the fucking end of the world, and you're worried about spoilers? Anything can happen now: rivers might turn to blood, a plague of locusts, anything. Even George Will's election prediction that Romney wins Minnesota.
If erected, I promise a chicken choker in every slot!
59: There's no pun. I'm just hoping for cargo.
ogged has always already left and returned,and he has always already brought cargo.
If the cargo is a DVD of Battleship, don't bother.
What's funny about the link in 64 is, we're talking about Scott Brown, before he blew up due to his special erection.
I won't stop watching TV until erection is certified.
On a more serious topic, is there any possibility that we'll see a division between the Erectoral College and the popular choat?
55 - We sacrifice him to ensure a good harvest?
On a more serious topic, why does Obama feel entitled to re-erection? Isn't one erection enough for any man?
Four years is a hell of a refractory period.
On a more serious topic, if you are erected for a six-year term, consult your doctor.
Look, even if Obama is erected, it's not clear that he'll have a mandate.
I know this erection has been difficult, and for some, painful. But sometimes a big erection like this helps bring people together.
FL! I am literally touching my penis right now.
Keep going, Urple! We can't afford to lose the erection now!
Like Old-Timers' Day at Yankee Stadium.
OK, better.
Jesus Christ. Is Urple's constant masturbating the only thing keeping back the apocalypse?
Does the Lur of Babylon sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy?
What is going on?????
Becks, are you out there?
STANDPIPE, REVEAL YOURSELF.
Becks is probably too Becks-style to comment.
All these are but harbingers of the end times.
The end will truly come only when Bob appears, in his halo of Vietnamese sandwiches.
FL! I am literally touching my penis right now.
And wait until you see the genuinely new thing urple has in store in for you.
Suckers. That was just Meekins pretending to be Ogged.
I can't find anyone with whom to watch the erection.
I'm falling asleep, but I trust the erection will be there when I wake up.
The betting odds on the erection are moving in the right direction. Turnout I assume.
Soooooo.....does anyone have plans for an erection party?
Most important erection of my lifetime.
I am having three female friends over for an erection party. Surprisingly my wife doesn't mind...she says she's tired of the erection anyway.
Achtung! Bay Areans without a place to view the big erection this evening are hereby invited to my place for said activity. Let's say, 7 pm. Email for my address if you don't have it.
Joshua! What a strange time this is.
93: Well I pwned a bunch of motherfuckers on the cargo thing.
93: D'oh, I see, the OP. I never read ogged's posts.
Betfair up 2% in a couple of minutes (82%). Intrade finally cracked 70--some guy earlier was pointing out big trades seeming to keep it below 70. Can't get better than 1:6 at bettors.
The poles in Virginia will close in just 45 minutes!
Wow, someone's filming all of this, right?
Well I discharged my... civic obligation... laydeez. In suburban Virgnia, if anyone is monitoring these things. VA apparently too poor to use computer things at my polling location anymore. Plenty o' paper ballots, workers, and lines.
Have you been maintaining an erection since the last time you posted? Because, you're supposed to call your doctor.
I vouched for two housemates who weren't registered for the erection!
If erections changed anything the government would ban them.
Wow, it's like a dream. And you were there, and you, and you, and you . . . .
Women get turned off by too much erection talk.
Do I have to post something now?
No need to go off half-cocked. Wait for the consummation of the erection.
(Just thinking of a half cock going off. Ugh.)
This erection is tight, but I like how it's pointing.
People interested in early poorly sourced stuff or "Shutup! Shutup! Shutup! "I'can't hear you."?
US erections suck. WE R DOING IT RONG!
This is true: the local high school cheerleaders have a cheer that goes "C'mon Big Purple! Stand up! Stand up!" which is kind of funny to me.
Maybe slolerner will come out of the woodwork too.
If Magik Johnson shows up it really *is* the end times.
118 written before 106 was posted, but 119 is still very good.
Pretty good info that Indiana Senate rape apology dude is massively under-performing Romney.
CNN exit polls say Romney crushing in Indiana, tied in Virginia.
They say that after the bassist,
Ogged vanished without a trace
But battalions of 'foggers
Still comment around his place.
The only place to find ogged now is in fucking archives,
So why did slol come out of the woodwork when ogged refused to hide?
They said the new regime of Heebie
Could never quite compete.
Whilst ogged remained aloof,
Then the blog was too effete.
But now ogged's return with the erections coincides,
So why did slol come out of the woodwork when ogged refused to hide?
The world is full of bloggers,
The bloggers have some renown,
But they'll never have a thread as good
As good old "Fuck you, clown"
Even the really snarky ones are never quite as snide,
So why did slol come out of the woodwork when ogged refused to hide?
Now if you meet with some old Timberites,
I'll tell you what to say,
Tell them the head of Unfogged
Never really went away,
We're out here making penis jokes, until the puns subside,
And we'll never rest again, until ogged again presides!
My daughters and I are fascinated by this erection.
And I an thrilled by the old school reunion going on here.
Blimey and indeed crikey.
How perfect that you've all come back on Erection Day with your bashful offerings.
I really want to get hammered tonight, but I'm hosting foreigners and I have to teach tomorrow.
I do not know why I have a meeting scheduled for 9AM tomorrow. It does not seem right that this should be so.
Rick beats it so you don't have to, Urple.
CNN exit polls say NC tied, Obama up 3 in Ohio.
Holy crap Cory Booker just wrestled a guy to the ground on live TV.
The DNC is confident that their erection strategy will hold firm.
Well, he will soon enough presumably.
"Man-Chin" is a good superhero name for the West Virginia senator.
Did I make everybody leave by inventing scurrilous rumors about Batman?
Why is the Huffington Post calling South Carolina for Obama? Am I misreading this check mark? That just makes them seem uncredible.
I'll be happy to see the Republicans blow this erection.
If anybody finds any online video news coverage that has captions, would you pretty please let me know?
Also what is going on in South Carolina?
146: networks are too. Presumably the giant, painted sign at the state border that says "We're Racist As Hell" was enough of a tipoff.
Oh, for "Obama". Yeah that would be weird.
They just switched it to red. (HuffPo SC)
These guys are good: http://election.princeton.edu
HuffPo just switched it to calling it for Romney. Like no duh.
It didn't when I checked 2 hours ago. I will look again.
155: Got anybody with more normal eyebrows?
Hey look I was a die-hard for Dukakis.
South Carolina is going for Obama because his Afro-Stormtroopers put all the white people into concentration camps earlier this morning and are censoring the lamestream media.
Those are the opposite of Dukakis eyebrows unless he's really be plucking.
||confidential to Thorn (and anyone else with a child who loves Doc McStuffins): I love the fact that Doc's "office" has a Vitruvian Teddy Bear poster.
I know this because Eccentric Jacobian and Sinusoidal Jacobian have some DM puzzles they're obsessed with
Wait, which part of Dukakis is the opposite of his eyebrows?
One problem with only having over-the-air TV is they keep showing these local nimrods. Show the national nimrods!
Scott Brown's Parade of Massholes continues apace.
MSNBC with the sound off and captioning on
But mostly the Yahoo Map(s) is terrific. Pres, Senate, House, Governors updated. You hover over a state get current vote totals and percent returns in...
Virginia 9% in
Allen 174k 59%
Kaine 123k 41%
Also checking in at 538 to see how the returns compare with Silver's state projections. And WaPo Klein etc who is doing the same.
Florida doesn't look like much of an erection at all.
Coos County, NH, has 4% of its votes cast with 10 total voters reporting (I think Dixvile Notch is there).
As far as I can tell, there are 10 counties in NH and Coos county is geographically pretty big.
Sam Wang says just to watch NH, since it's small and will be called relatively quickly -- if Obama loses or just barely scrapes by there, it's a sign the state level polling was off and we're in for a nightmare.
Although Yahoo appears a lot slower than MSNBC. A lot.
Everybody on my FB and neighborhood email lists is making it sound like the turnout this year is higher that '08 or '04. And of course MN usually has the highest turnout in the country.
Another Masshole Comedian warming 'em up for Scott Brown!
Now all we need is Paul Deignan back in this joint.
It's like Nick's Comedy Stop circa 1991 up in there.
172.last: I think that overstates things, NH was relatively close in polling.
163 is my favorite thing on that show. I'll have to look for the puzzles as Xmas gifts. Tonight I gave Nia a copy of Obama's children's book as an Election Day present (actually because when I went to read it to her I remembered we had two copies) and got all choked up reading it. Ohio has better not fuck things up and ruin it all.
176 -- Truly, your viewing experience seems like hell.
I have a shit-ton of work to do, but I'm just going to sit here being anxious all night until the profanity just fucking explodes. Time to go home and start drinking.
I had a thought that I hope the East Coast states are called late, so that no Obama voters here stay home and avoid voting yes on 30, no on 32.
My county-by-county analyses in Va & Fl is basically rural racist counties going more Romney than is "good", urbans are offsetting so far.
Report from Philadelphia: Visited 37 polling places between 7 am and 4 pm today. Strong to excellent turnout. Most poll workers have worked many previous elections (12-15 yrs at least) and so have comparison points.
Voter ID law causing some confusion, changes in polling places causing some confusion.
The real issue was some fairly substantial (but probably local to the city itself) problems with provisional ballots. Average of 5-12% (!) of voters in 14 places sampled had to cast provisional ballot. Reason was a mixture of "first time voter, not on the rolls" and "longtime voter, inexplicably not on the rolls".
The procedure in such cases is supposed to be: 1) judge of elections tries to verify your registration status by calling city board of elections 2) if verified, judge lets you vote on the machine with everyone else; if not verified, you get a provisional ballot.
On the ground, the procedure was actually 1) judge of elections tries unsuccessfully to get through the city board of elections numerous times on the phone, 2) gives up and tells voter to vote provisionally.
They are NOT supposed to do this when the voter actually has a voter registration card in hand but it kept happening.
My fellow election protection people ranged from solid to awesome. At one point I was partnered with a guy who was absolutely world-class. I honestly think he should write the definitive checklist/rubric.
Weather freezing in am but no precipitation, and it warmed up later on.
Good decisions: Wearing my suit, bringing tons of snacks, wearing layers.
Stupid decision: Not wearing gloves. Boy were my hands numb for the first two hours.
Most of all, I was blown away by the gratitude and good will with which we were greeted everywhere we went. People could not have been friendlier or more helpful -- even when they were swamped with voters, even when they were dealing with cranky, shouty people. It was truly terrific.
What FL needs is some government health plan Viagra. That'll win the erection.
All betting sites that I see except Intrade are up around 90. Some ridiculously "don't want your bet" levels.
Angus King really looks like an Angus King.
184: If Florida gets Viagra, the Bahamas are going to be destroyed.
With 5% reporting NH looks awesome. So not to worry, everybody. Off to bed.
Drinking! Is there a channel covering this that doesn't feature terrible people?
Witt, most people at my polling place were voting with pieces of paper that then got scanned, though there were also two of the computery machines. We never did this before in PA that I can remember. Is this everywhere in the state?
Greatest insta-comedy twitter feed ever.
I will certainly feel relieved when this erection is over.
189: The Beeb coverage seems decent -- their numbers boffin is in an animated environment that looks like the situation room in The Hunger Games movie.
County by county 2008 v. 2012 differentials in Fl, Va & NC are all pointing towards very close. The goobers doubling down on the white white guy vs. the urbanoids. May be leeriest of Florida since early votes went pretty strong for the O-man.
NBC calls for Murphy in Connecticut.
God. I'm so very nervous. I really don't want to work for Mitt Romney. Or more directly, any of his cabinet appointees (judging by his "advisors").
NBC calls for Murphy in Connecticut.
Yeah!
174: Massachusetts has had high turn-out because of the Brown-Warren race. I'm nervous about that one.
A guy I know went to college with Murphy. I am getting old.
Really early but things are actually looking good so far....
202: I remember when people said the same thing in 2004. I won't fall for that trick a second time...
I'm a little afraid of google right now. They just completed a search for me that I'm positive I've never done... and in a way that was freakishly on point and... uh... not yer usual fare.
203: my reaction to 202 was "oh god, we're doomed."
203 is sooooooooooooooooooo right. Rationality be damned.
Nate Silver is live-blogging at 538 if you wanna open another tab
I am still watching Virginia, Silver gave Obama a 79% chance of winning Va. We'll see...
Warren is running about seven points behind Obama in the early returns - should I start freaking out?
205: I thought something similar, but more mcmanus-inflected: "oh god, we're (undersea-) domed"
Go home, erection. You're drunk.
In 2004 I got on a Metro North train to Hastings to watch the returns with some friends. Kerry was winning VA. When I got off that train everything had already gone to shit.
204 - tell us what you started typing and we can tell you if we get the same suggestion.
Lloyd Doggett declared winner!
Im in a car, what's going on in NH
212 Please wait for at least another hour before you decide to get on a train.
10% in in NH, Obama leading 58 to 40%.
peg game
proportion
puzzle in pokemon gold
pyraminx
peg game
proportion
puzzle in pokemon gold
pyraminx
320 (and 321, its evil twin): no, not a bit.
how to solve the priapism problem.
216, 218: On a county-by-county basis it is all quite favorable, but none over 25%. I suspect easy win for Obama, but I also suspect not very diagnostic for non-New England/ states which border Mitt's state.
Someone just told me Allen West is out. If so, dude!
222: got it in one. no, not really.
6.7 million votes counted in Fla (76%) and Romney is ahead by 1,288 of them. Holy crap.
The mood on Fox News is grim. This makes me happy.
Why does Virginia look worse than North Carolina now?
Remember, a tie in Florida is good. It means the polls are right and Obama will win without it.
I love Pacifica Radio. Commentary from Pierce, Amy Goodman, Bernie Sanders, and Bob Herbert. Now talking about drone warfare. Viva la bubble.
230: The rural counties got counted early. It is going to be very tight.
231 wasn't me, but I was almost about to type that very sentence.
BBC guy on splitting your ticket: "It's like saying you want no government at all!"
Pennsylvania! No surprise, but boss.
Man I am ready for somebody besides NBC to get on the "call it for Warren" train.
231, 234: Unless the urban areas in Florida step it more than I am seeing it going Romney.
I wish Ohio would just finish it up soon. Nerve-wracking because early voting known to be strong Obama so now it is just whittling away slowly, but theoretically not enough based on exit polls.
Fuck, my map shows Florida with a 300 vote difference out of 7 million.
This is awesome. Dick Morris tweet from 5 minutes ago: "#election2012 so far I see nothing to disabuse me of the notion that Romney will win by a lot. Nothing to confirm it either"
Maybe I'm feeling better now.
239: At some point a bit ago, NBC was showing a vote difference of 193. Jesus please don't let things come down to a FL recount.
Dick Morris boasts about his erection predictions.
HAW HAW WISCONSIN.
238: Nate Silver's junior wizard disagrees.
Silver on twitter: On the wall, the writing is.
Hey Witt, lets you and Dave Weigel fight.
I'm a little behind on my election night news. All I know so far is that Cory Booker wrestled Dukakis' eyebrows to the ground. Keep me updated, Unfogged.
Sherrod Brown, American Hero (let the positioning for 2016 begin now)
248: I am VERY happy about Senator Warren. (Do you think she'll send me my money back? I mean, I'm not sure she needed it, and I kinda do. Limp, yo.)
Brown is one of the very best Senators and he was maybe the main Chamber of Commerce target. Fantastic news!
NBC does finally declare Warren the winner!
MSNBC just projected Warren! Fuck Yeah!
Frist!
Now I can start hating the sellout
It just occurred to me that my dream ticket in 2016 is Brown-Warren. Unless Clinton wants to run, in which case I'll be happy to see Clinton-Brown or Clinton-Patrick.
The bar cheers whenever a state is called for Obama. Really loud cheer for call on Pennsylvania.
244: Yeah, NH called for Obama.
243: Yes, Hillsborough one that is exceeding "expectations". Maybe Latino vote. I think it will come down to turnout in big urban SE.
But see Palm Beach County with 99% in (I don't actually believe that) it shows 59-41 vs. 62-38 on 2008, and 95K margin vs. 130K in 2008.
245: ? Weigel's describing the same thing I did. I didn't waste time bashing the city commissioners in my comment, but they're the ones in charge.
Frankly, I have the strong suspicion that the provisional ballots issue was in part caused by an idiotic clerical or programming error. Many of the poll workers told us that they had checked not only the voter book, but the "supplemental" additional sheets of voter registrations they were given. Yet voters were still not listed -- many (perhaps a majority) of whom were carrying their valid voter registration cards when they showed up to vote.
The easiest possible explanation for this is that these voters were indeed ACCURATELY registered, but a clerical or programming glitch meant that their names did not actually get printed out when the poll books (or more likely, the supplemental sheets) were produced.
A better-functioning set of commissioners would have ensured that a) poll workers could get through on the phone to verify registrations, b) somebody at the polls had a smart phone or tablet to look up registrations online, or c) the voter books/supplemental sheets were accurate in the first place.
None of this is a reflection on the judges of election and poll workers I was meeting with today.
Good job, MA. You finally appropriately replaced Ted Kennedy. Go Celtics.
Also Ohio. Brown had some of my Hollywood money.
Holy shit Mourdock loses!
Does it make me racist that I don't really like Cory Booker all that much? Also, I'm not sure why it took you all so long on Warren. Oh, I guess it's because she likes me best.
The subheadline at the NYT is something that they probably came up with weeks ago: "Early Results Show Tight Race, but Key Battlegrounds Await"
Why say "but" there? There's no contrast.
FLA is down to 2,000 votes. Shit.
I'm only watching OH and FLA. The rest is chatter.
In 1991, I was working for a law firm in DC, trying to decide whether to apply to law school (I wisely did not), and covering banking and bankruptcy issues for them on Capitol Hill. The bankruptcy "reform" bill that finally passed in 2005 was the subject of hearings, and in a horribly stacked pro-lender parade of witnesses there was one bright spot. I became a massive fan of Elizabeth Warren that day. Could not be more excited about her victory.
254: for once Wafer and I agree on something.
Unfortunately the early positioning for 2016 is all around Warner...
I don't actually believe that
I share your skepticism. A lot.
Old news to you all but I just got home and the first thing I did was check Unfogged for the election results (I know, right?) and holy shit! Ogged! Surely we can't lose now.
Warren won I see (Yes!). How's Barry O doing?
Medical marijuana in Massachusetts.
254: You are forgetting that in 2016, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton will both be Supreme Court Justices.
This really is like a dream. Welcome back Ogged. And Labs. And unf and...everybody. Oh my God.
If your erection last more than four hours, you may need a recount.
258.2: Here in MPLS, where of course we run CLEAN elections, the explanation that I have heard is that they do try to run the precinct lists at the last possible moment, but that still generally means several days before the election, where conceivably, someone could register in person at the courthouse, and get the card in the mail the next day.
A big win in NH is huge, and it has to be big to be called right now. It's evidence that the state polls didn't have a systemic bias, which means we should win.
I read 254 and thought, Why would Scott Brown run with her right after she beat him?
264: I'm so sorry. From your suits and posh life I thought you a lawyer.
Systemic pro-Obama bias, that is.
Of course we may still lose if 30 goes down.
Huffington Post called NH for Obama, but they're being super flimsy on everything.
275 is interesting. Here in PA, we cut off registration 30 days before the election.
(Also: yay ogged! Yay cerebrocrat and Joe D and old friends galore!)
Wow, Fox in full bitch and whine mode about Liz Warren. It's already working!
Yes, in CT Linda McMahon is down for the count.
What's going on in Wisconsin?? NYT says a bunch of networks have called it for O but they still have it colored pink.
Silver was talking about the Intrade gap tonight. It still held at 70% (others were 85%+) up until about 45 minutes ago and now is at 94%, I suspect whoever was depressing it with buys finally gave it up.
But Romney is still leading in the vote count; that's why it's pink.
281: Well, as of right now, we still have same-day registration. As mentioned above, I vouched for two other people who live in my precinct who did not have all the documentation needed.
I am confused about why the BBC is calling MN for Obama, when the local paper is only showing 3% of precincts reporting. Surely that cannot be enough? With those precincts, it looks like both of our perfidious ballot amendments are going to fail. So, crossing fingers.
Hey, Alan Grayson won, speaking of voting for progressive Democrats .
Hey, Alan Grayson won, speaking of voting for progressive Democrats .
The BBC on twitter, or, more specifically, BBC News US is some sub-Politico level bullshit. "We hear polling sites are running out of "I Voted" stickers. Please contact us if you didn't get a sticker."
Has the NYT election stuff gone completely FUBAR for anyone else?
There is a man on Fox made of clay and paint!
(Seriously, I am scared. Is he a real live boy?)
No write in option on the California ballot for Senate, so I ended up voting Democratic down the line.
Momre Dick Morris goodness: "#election2012 I think they are calling states way to soon. Stick around and watch the actual vote counts in Penn and Wisc"
Huh, Angus King ran largely on filibuster reform, according to NBC news. Do it!
Fuck, I just moved into this apartment and I have no cable. I'm missing all the best meltdowns on Fox.
Only 54% of Miami counted...Florida looking REALLY good
299: cool. Win or lose the senate I'm down for reforming the shit out of vrijbuiter
Hey, McCaskill won!
Someone I know keeps a job!
Akin goes down!@#
It was God's will.
Sadly, the only candidate I know personally is not going to win. Currently he has about 1% of the vote. Even our mutual anarchist friends agree that he is a bit of a nutter though.
Wait no, that was Murdock. Akin was a legitimate defeat.
Nope God shut that stuff down in MO
Has anybody noticed Atkins went down?
295: I haven't been able to get to the NYT site either.
Akin went down because he couldn't keep it up after shooting himself in the foot.
Is there another blog where somebody will explain to me if that really is Standpipe?
Actually, I quite like football.
316 He explains it all on his blog.
Projections lean to the right despite the media's attempts to be even-handed.
Are you there, ogged? It's me, Standpipe.
Fox is going on about people voting illegally in Ohio.
315: why is this night different from all other nights?
Early results in MT: Tester is killing Rehberg in Rehberg's home county. It'll change as the night goes on, but it's nice to set the tone right out of the gate.
Elizabeth Warren, Medical Marijuana, and a guest posting by Ogged- I may not be able to Die with Dignity, but I will sleep well tonight nonetheless.
Warren, Duckworth, McMahon losing, what a great night this is shaping up to be.
Really, FL is going to decide this erection.
I'm also enjoying Dick Morris' Tweets of Delusion: "#election2012 watch Colorado. If we win Fla and Ohio and Va it will come down to Colorado"
Fox is going on about people voting illegally in Ohio.
Voter protections?!? Fox prefers erections unprotected.
Also, Peggy Noonington is on Fox talking about how Democrats are disingenuously using the War on Women for the purpose of "Rustling up passions about things people didn't have to be worried about."
Ye Gods. This thread is like a Hindi movie where all the departed characters reappear for the celebratory dance number.
Ye Gods. This thread is like a Hindi movie where all the departed characters reappear for the celebratory dance number.
If Allen West loses, it looks like his role as designated lunatic can be taken by the Michigan Militia Reindeer Santa Claus guy.
If Allen West loses, it looks like his role as designated lunatic can be taken by the Michigan Militia Reindeer Santa Claus guy.
I don't think we're at any risk of running out of lunatics in the House, sadly.
I think Scott Brown just apologized to his truck.
Ye Gods. This thread is like a Hindi movie where all the departed characters reappear for the celebratory dance number.
I don't like dancing. We've been over this.
278: You wound me, sir. My trade school was public policy.
Brown's truck isn't going to give him any more erections.
Natilo told me that Ogged came back (and SEK and baa and it looks like a bunch of other people) so I thought that I had better get in on this in case there's going to be some kind of weird Left Behind/Rapture scenario.
So hello from the anarchist wilds of MPLS, those of you who may remember me. Natilo tells me all the 'foggetariat gossip. Tsk, tsk, people.
FL, NC, VA & OH annoying me each in a different way. VA the DC suburbs are not hitting 2008 %s--but pop growth make give them the same margins. Will need it because the rural goobers went peak racist.
FL. looks good in Dade, but they have fair-sized panhandle county with 0% report 50K for Romney there. (Ah just coming in now.)
NC looks like a bridge a bit too far.
Ohio, you have to go through this "U-shaped" curve--early big leads from Dem early voting gets when eroded when rurals count faster, but then Dems come back when urban day of comes in. But if there is any state where the polling turnout numbers are known in detail it would be Ohio. Most rural and small city counties went a fair bit stornger for Romney--but surprisingly south and southeast OH holding to 1008 or improving; I think they hit peak racist in 2008.
What's the deal with TPM's map? Are they being extra cautious compared to NBC? Their Obama electoral vote numbers are smaller than what I'm seeing on tv.
(I think their rule is that at least 2 or 3 reputable news outlets need to make a call before they'll mark a state as won. At least that's how it was in 2008.)
My Yahoo map just turned Florida Greenish-Brown.
Wow. Akin's concession is super sadsacky.
big leads from Dem early voting gets when eroded when rurals count faster, but then Dems come back when urban day of comes in.
This sentence needs something firm to prop it up, like an erection.
I knew all it would take to get Frowner back was an erection.
340: It's okay. You can just sway slightly and look benevolent.
345: According to this post TPM is following the AP for this election.
341: As I said, my apologies.
356: Ah, thanks. I missed that post. I think AP tends to be more cautious, though I seem to remember them calling and then uncalling something a few years ago.
All the MN numbers are looking really good. (I'm not even trying to hear any shit from the 6th district. Those people can all go jump in a lake.)
Truck is super drunk. Sorry, truck.
Oh god this speech is swell. I heart you liberal college professor.
I am recovering from a moderately invasive medical procedure today...they asked diffidently if I wanted to schedule it for election day and I jumped at the chance to distract myself from the polls. I managed to sleep the sleep of the people on really good drugs until late afternoon, when I staggered forth to vote.
There has been quite the anarchist contretemps locally - perhaps Natilo has mentioned - when the anarchist community center (with which I am sort of associated) did a bunch of stuff helping organize people to vote no on the marriage amendment and the voter suppression initiative. I mean, I have been on anarchist break these past few months so I had nothing to do with it but I thought it was pretty good. But it didn't go over very well with the insurrectionist anarchists, who were upset about it on Facebook.
When I had my medical procedure, they told me not to make any important decisions for the rest of the day, as my mind would be clouded with narcotics. But I could still vote, they said.
Thank god Kaine beats Allen
Senate looking ok
I'm pretty sure that Rogaine commercial just touted "85% GREW BACK HAIR". Side effects may include!
Republicans might be thinking having Warren in the obscurity of the CFPB might not have been such a bad thing, after all.
When I had my medical procedure, they told me not to make any important decisions for the rest of the day, as my mind would be clouded with narcotics. But I could still vote, they said.
Ha!
Anyway, it's good to see you, Frowner. Hope the medical stuff all turns out okay.
Only one hour left until the polls close in Alaska!
Is Warren's the first speech ever to have shout-outs to both "the LGBT community" and "the credit unions"?
My sister is running for a seat in the Maine House of Delegates. So far, she is winning 92 votes to 55.
My cousin, alas, seems to have lost her race for a seat in the Connecticut House.
Warren is a freaking star. She will keep that seat as long as she wants it.
Looks like a good chance Obama will get to 300...Nate Silver should take a victory lap.
Rs could even lose seats on net in the Senate which is an astounding result.
The NYT seems to be significantly more cautious in calling states than most other outlets.
Is there a good site for California-specific results? Not just the official counts but projections, since I'm impatient.
Kos: "Teabaggers have now cost Republicans Senate seats in Missouri, Indiana, Colorado, Delaware, and Nevada. Those five seats would've given the GOP the majority."
McCaskill is running 11 points ahead of Obama in Missouri.
I'm not sure what's going on with the AP in the NYT "network calls" page. 98-128? Are they waiting for the telegraph operator to decode the messages?
McCaskill really created a lot of distance from Obama, and Akin so awful.
So many Senators are mediocrities. Liz Warren is going to be a shining star, it is going to be such a pleasure having her there.
NBC projecting Ohio and an Obama win.
NC to Romney.
FL ... "vote extrapolation" has Obama holding on.
Ohio.. vote extrapolation has 150-200K margin to O.. and someone is calling it.
Fox News just called Ohio for Obama. Looking forward to the wailing and gnashing of teeth!
44: sacks could be provided.
http://yama-dharma.deviantart.com/journal/?offset=41
||
NMM to the Romney Campaign.
|>
very time for bed for me
I think I am going to turn in. Not that this hasn't been fun, but bed is looking more and more probable. I kinda wish I could be down in Cedar-Riverside if there is a big victory dance like in 2008, but not enough to be cold and possibly get pepper-sprayed. (Oh yeah, did you know, when people were peacefully and joyfully dancing in celebration of Obama's win in 2008, the MPD came through spraying clouds of pepper-spray into groups standing on the sidewalk?)
212: (comment or area code 212) trains are running slower tonight.
Rove is on Fox saying Ohio isn't settled, and the networks got it wrong. Horrible flashback to 2000!
Maybe Romney will finally get a real job now.
Too bad Romney couldn't be kept from 200.
402: Yes. Question would be if remaining votes in the big urban counties are the suburbanites. But Cuyahoga still 100K less remaining than 2008 and a lot not counted and very little other than early results in Lucas County.
Karl is setting table for litigation.
OMG. The Fox people are doing this whole performative "walk off the set and go question people in person" thing to "get to the bottom of this."
And CNN (except Carville) immediately starts talking about how this win will force Obama to govern differently. I guess socialism is finally off the table.
And CNN (except Carville) immediately starts talking about how this win will force Obama to govern differently.
...
412 Rove claims premature Ohio election.
412 The earth can't move every election, sometimes really nice is enough.
Romney refuses to concede. Nice try, you unpatriotic asshole.
Donald Trump is calling for revolution.
For the first time in my life I really wish I had 1. cable and 2. fox news.
Krauthammer's on right now. "Obama has no mandate."
Did all the other states decide to stop counting once the networks called it? No new calls for a while now.
420 me too.
I'm watching Fox news on streaming for the gloat but I'm not sure it's what's on cable.
421: He's really good at repeating that over and over and over again.
Krauthammer: "Romney is a northeastern liberal."
420: Congratulations, Coloradans!
Hott lesbian action in the Senate.
426 Did he actually say that?
Hot DAMN this is a good night. Hot DAMN.
I guess I'll switch to Fox for a bit. I've been impressed with MSNBC, probably because it now resembles the liberal bubble I can't get enough of.
Tammy Baldwin too! A really good night for the Senate.
429: He did! Good thing ogged is around to push his wheelchair into a swimming pool.
Rachel Maddow now reporting on Rove on Fox - and pointing out that Rove is, in addition to everything else he's known for, also a big Republican spender.
Quibbling about Ohio won't help Rove. VA is Obama's. So is FL. 332-206.
I tried, but I still can't watch Fox. Meanwhile, Maddow is now talking about all of the stats the Republicans have tried to juke recently (tax reports, unemployment numbers, etc., not just polls).
Rove got so rich off this election. He cleaned up. In terms of results, he has now 'masterminded' three losing elections out of the last four and his guy left such a bad taste in peoples' mouths that Obama is still picking up votes off the memory of Bush. I hope he stays influential in the Republican party for many years to come.
Now Rove is backing off and conceding.
Backing off, conceding, and chewing gum.
436: 332-206? Nobody could have foreseen such a thing.
Ten out of eleven on competitive Senate races so far. MT, NV, and ND could still be winnable.
AP's count (via TPM) is showing Obama at 290 with Virginia and Florida still undecided -- which is more than an 18-vote margin. I think that means at this point he doesn't even need Ohio, no?
OMG Tom Brokaw is saying something logical (about standardizing voting systems.)
442: Right, CO+NV+IA+NH means OH/FL/VA are irrelevant.
In Ohio, I'm half thinking that Husted is releasing the results he wants to help this narrative grab hold. And a small part of me that does not want to admit it exists is thinking about that "software reporting patch" on the Ohio voting machines.
CNN has Virginia for Obama (my extrapolations agree).
446: Oops I think it's the NYT site that has it.
445: Huh? Husted basically said BHO won and went home.
444, 446-7: Awesome. Any scenario that rules out a nightmare recount in Ohio or Florida (or both). Slow exhale (for me at least).
447: Yeah, the NYT just called VA for Obama. They still haven't called OH.
OK, tinfoil hat off then ...
And a lot of Cuyahoga came in so O up 23K (he was down by 20K a bit ago).
448: ... maybe that's what he wants you to believe ...
Wafer!!! Megan! Things are looking bad. Let's take these happy motherfuckers on and fuck with them. Team Misery.
Obama's going to win with 332. He could call Romney and say, "Hey, California? I'll give it to you."
"Cuyahoga". There's a name that really spoilt the 2004 erection.
Goddammit. Happy as I am about the national picture, things are not looking good for Prop 30.
Dude! I know! The earliest results I heard were 100% opposite from my votes on the propositions. And I wanted Lundgren out so bad. Maybe when we wake up it'll be better.
Legal pot for personal use in Colorado and Washington!
The ex-chief of the Choom Gang better not unleash the feds on those states...
Auto Recount triggers:
Ohio .25% (~13k votes)
Florida .5% (~40k votes)
Virginia 1.0% (~40k votes)
I'm confident that the historic scale of this erection will throw the Republicans into confusion.
1) This is a terrific Senate, one of the most liberal attractive Senates I can remember. Warren and Baldwin are big fucking deals. I don't know what they can do with that snakepit of a House, but I have much more confidence about what they won't do.
2) Prediction: Since he can do it by fiat, I will predict that Obama reschedules marijuana this term down from Schedule I.
455:Got a sad for California and Wafer. I found a live site for the initiatives.
Californians: if it seems to dark, you could always head north or east and get 1. gay married and 2. super high for no reason.
Republicans are going to double down on the crazy after this.
Report from Prop 30 headquarters: we still have a good shot. What does that mean?
464: Interesting. Might create some momentum for DC statehood too.
I think it means that big liberal counties haven't reported yet.
SD senate looks to still be a possibility.
A senate without Joe Lieberman is its own reward.
This stupid election is really getting in the way of NaNoWriMo. Priorities, people!
Seriously, good news on TV, and it's great to see old faces (whatever) around here. Tonight was interesting for me, but not as much as around here. Sort of wish I hung around here more. Party on, Wayne.
And the icing on the cake: marriage equality wins in Maine, ahead in Maryland and Washington. I think this materially improves the odds that Justice Kennedy votes to strike down DOMA, the direction of the winds of history being thereby clarified.
Also recreational weed is hella legal here and there.
I want to see Romney concede before I turn in. What the hell is he doing, pouting in the green room?
465: I think so too. Cognitive dissonance and all that.
469: Should be ND senate. 2.5% up w/ 94% reporting.
Michele Bachmann leading by only ~200 votes. This night is shaping up to be better than Christmas!
Alan Grayson is back in the House, rock and roll! Almost want Alan West to make it back now so the two of them can fistfight on the floor.
Maybe Romney and Brown are pounding the Scotch together.
"Bring on the wine": http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/06/conservative-election-party-not-so-fun.html
Or perhaps the whine.
Ohio Republicans haz a sad: https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/266039119707242496/photo/1
looks like Michelle Bachmann is running out of fuel circling the sinking Akagi: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/06/us-election-2012-results-live-blog#block-5099f1a995cb1506d2444a39
PA US House went from 7 out of 19 blue in 2010 to 5 out of 18. It's particularly crushing to look at a map: only one Democratic win outside of Philly or Pittsburgh. State elections matter, particularly in those zero mod ten years.
Romney the Dick supposedly to speak at 12:55.
Israel-lobby casino king Adelson plunges on red, beaten like a black dog on a chain: http://forward.com/articles/165546/tough-night-for-sheldon-adelson/
481: truly he is the Ur-Dickbag. Truly.
The audience was calling expectantly: "Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!" USA USA USA! But the stage is empty.
Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin.
Here we go, oh Mitt your tears are so delicious.
Virginia is for Democrats, it seems. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/06/us-election-2012-results-live-blog#block-5099f6e395cb1506d2444a3d
486: If I could collect them, I am sure they would keep me young forever.
OK Mitt coming to the podium. Wild cheering. Congratulated the President on his victory!
Romney version 8.1, concession Romney, appears to have not gone through complete bug testing.
488 you'd need to keep them in a safe deposit box in a bank in Zurich
I'm pretty sure he really didn't write a concession speech. This is more like an Oscar acceptance speech, just thanking a laundry list of people.
Clearly the Romney campaign wasn't lying when they said they had prepared an acceptance speech but not a concession speech.
466: no (or very few) returns in from LA County. Still, my numbers says it's going down. Maybe narrowly, but going down.
Regardless, everyone else is right: this is a genuinely great night for the nation. The Senate has a real progressive caucus. Brown and Warren alone are powerhouses. They're going to work together a lot. It's going to be fun to watch.
At the same time, I wonder where the GOP goes from here. I suppose we'll see a renaissance for compassionate conservatism, and if the last few weeks of the campaign demonstrated anything, it's that wingnuts will eat any kind of shit they have to eat in order to get one of their people elected. Nevertheless, I do hope that the Paul Ryan is enough of a firebreather that he won't be able to accept such a move, and we'll be done with him for good.
But man, returning to me, me, me -- I have a limp, you know -- if 30 goes down, it's going to be a very odd time here. I'm sure you'll all be incredibly interested in my thoughts as they develop.
OK, you lost. Get off the fucking stage. Shout out to the "job creators"! Barf.
Hey, self-confessed war criminal Allen West is losing:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/06/us-election-2012-results-live-blog#block-5099f7d095cb1506d2444a3f
That was the worst concession speech I've ever seen.
I wish I knew more about Tammy Baldwin. Does anyone here? I'm not convinced she's an old-school Midwestern progressive, but I really could be wrong. Still, I'm thrilled she won.
Oh, Paul Ryan, you're on my TV. Fuck you, you heartless mediocrity.
You can tell me those thoughts as I drink my delicious victory Coke.
Bachmann only up 300 with 68% reporting. PA House wipeout worst result of the night in my neck of the woods.
Ann looks like she sneaked a valium before the speech.
PGD and I are of one mind tonight. The apocalypse is upon us.
Romney on the cell calling his tax accountant right now.
Gee what a dickbag the person who talked that speech was.
Bachmann losing would be the icing on the icing on this victory cake.
Sounded like he was about to fire everybody at a company Bain just bought.
502: what's the popular vote? I honestly have no idea. And I don't really care. I'll buy you whatever beverage you want. Though I may be furloughed for the next few years, so your drink might have to be generic.
I'd pay real money to see Chuck Todd ripped to shred by African wild dogs.
How are the Dems doing in the House?
I wish I knew more about Tammy Baldwin.
First openly gay senator, fwiw.
Jeez, you guys are tough. He's a terrible human being. He gave a short speech. He congratulated his opponent and called on his supporters to do the same. Have I mentioned that he gave a short speech? It wasn't that bad.
My sister seems to have won her state house seat in Maine. Now she will actually be legislating. Scary.
Stormfront's servers are overloaded. So they say.
How are the Dems doing in the House?
Not great. NYT has a net gain of 1 seat for the GOP so far.
What a great Senate we've got.
Scalia strikes me as the type who eats a lot of fried foods. Alito too.
513: that I know. And that's not nothing. Again, I'm really thrilled she won. I just used to know more about WI politics than I do now. And I don't know if she's a new(ish) Midwestern Democrat or a populist New Dealer.
I think Romney lost because he didn't declare his love for America loudly or often enough.
514: mccain's speech was soaring oratory by comparison. How good a thing is that?
515 Scary because she's your sister? Or because of her political views?
Mike Murphy has, at least three times tonight, talked about a "Latino problem". I wonder if he has a solution or a final solution.
I think Romney lost because he didn't declare his love for America loudly or often enough.
Maybe next he should run for Prime Minister of the Caymans.
Waved off from damaged Hiryu, Allen West bales out into the sea: http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/house/18/#.UJn3tWl24yz
521: it was flat, for sure. But then again, he just lost his life's dream. At least he wasn't as big a dick as he usually is. I don't know, maybe I'm just a bit sympathetic with the losers tonight. Anyway, he's a total fuckwad, and I'm thrilled he lost. Even though I voted for Jill Stein.
Rosco Bartlett got gerrymandered out of his seat in Maryland. Kinda sucks for his district - its full of legitimate right wing crazies, so its reasonable for them to have a right-wing crazy as a representative. But, as right-wing crazies go, he wasn't bad. The "Greenest Republican in Congress", for what that's worth...
Jeez, you guys are tough. He's a terrible human being. He gave a short speech. He congratulated his opponent and called on his supporters to do the same. Have I mentioned that he gave a short speech? It wasn't that bad.
Seriously. I detest that guy and I was totally thinking/hoping he was going to be way twattier about losing.
529 me too, it's why I stayed up for it.
What was our original bet, Megan?
528: Bartlett's the weird crazy-right/deep-green mashup guy, isn't he?
The Onion nails it: http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-want-to-congratulate-the-president-romney-says-i,30283/
Dutch newspaper pulls a Dewey Defeats Truman: http://twitpic.com/bb0isj
Even though I voted for Jill Stein.
Hey, me too.
Nah, just kidding. But I should check if the third party candidate I did vote for actually won, or alternately, threw the election to the republican.
I bet that Obama would totally win, easy as pie. Which he did. I like a slice of lemon in my Coke. Crushed ice is better than large cubes.
AK results here, not that anyone except me cares.
534: link to the original bet, please.
I don't know, maybe I'm just a bit sympathetic with the losers tonight.
You feeling okay there, VW? I'm worried about you.
(BTW, nice to see your crazy ginger Mexican friend is doubling down on the anti-gay bigotry. WTF was I thinking looking at his Twitter feed?)
I thought his speech was a mild but real rebuke to people in the Republican party who would question Obama's legitimacy as President. The very first words out of his mouth were a congratulations to the President on his victory, a prayer for Obama's success as President, and a call for bipartisanship, when the entire GOP strategy has been based on sabotaging the President and undermining his legitimacy. It was kind of wooden but that's Romney.
I'm totally wired. No way I'm getting to sleep anytime soon.
Mitt Romney is now going to console himself by firing his entire campaign staff.
God I wish the popular vote wasn't so close. It's sucking a bit of the joy out of this.
What? I'm not gonna do that kind of research.
I'm totally wired drunk. No way I'm getting to sleep anytime soon.
So anyway, Nate Silver is now pretty much set for life.
Bartlett's the weird crazy-right/deep-green mashup guy, isn't he?
Yup. Accepted an award from Rev. Sun Young Moon, and also drives a Prius.
Clay SHirky tweet: "The Republicans are running out of archetypes. War Hero didn't work, nor Millionaire. Who's on for 2016? Survivalist? Civil War Re-enactor?"
537: I just deleted a long and serious comment. But don't worry about me. I'm gimpy but fine.
Maybe they'll go with straight-up fascist.
Bachmann down to 100 votes: https://twitter.com/kbeninato/status/266058964641398786 peering through the starred perspex, is that a shark down there?
540, 545: Stay up with me and watch Alaska local results (via the link in 535)! The important races are for state senate.
How was the turnout in Sandyville?
Also, Obama: great president, or the greatest president?
544 see 543. Anyway, I really am happy to buy you whatever you want. A house? A new car? Whatever.
Lefty dude I voted for didn't win, as I hoped. Won 26% (five times more than the GOP candidate), which hopefully will give the incumbent a scare.
MIttens is just sad that he doesn't get to be the guy who fulfills the White Horse Prophecy.
MIttens is just sad that he doesn't get to be the guy who fulfills the White Horse Prophecy.
I don't understand the double posting tonight.
Drunken texts to my kindred spirit apostate kid sister include classy observations such as "Fuck Romney like the youngest polygamist wife".
553 Now watching Alaska results. And hoping to see Bachmann go down for the count.
The Alaska results don't seem to be updating very often, I admit.
I'm hoping Ryan kind of fades off the national stage and I think that can happen. He lacks charisma and there is no future in being the house intellectual for a policies that make no sense, can't be justified, and are so unpopular that they can't be honestly described in public. History offers many examples of VP candidates fading into total obscurity.
Obama's gonna celebrate with some drone strikes.
I'm loving you tonight, PGD. Wanna snuggle?
And hoping to see Bachmann go down for the count.
I'm going to stay up to watch this one and Tester in MT. I probably won't be able to sleep anyway because of 30. Maybe I should take a couple of Valium and drink a glass of wine or three.
No, I don't think he does. His bet had an unsatisfied condition precedent about the unemployment rate, so no one wins.
Word your bets carefully, folks !
Popular vote will end up OK, not great. But + another million or so in margin from Calif etc. Maybe even more when everything drags in. NY slow for instance.
563 and that page is kind of hard to read (especially if you're not familiar with the races) or maybe I'm just finally getting tired.
I'm pretty sure this means the Republicans will never again win a national election.
Who fights to fight about what the Grand Bargain is going to include?
Anyway, if anyone is going to actually watch the Alaska results with me, the important races are senate districts A, B, G, J, and Q. It's not looking very good for the Dems right now, but only 27% of the precincts have reported.
The most important outcome of tonight's election: four more years of Onion Joe Biden.
569: NJ won't be done until Friday or something. Although one imagines that a lot of folks won't bother to vote now.
Not impossible that we'll each buy each other Cokes.
(I really don't expect anyone else to care about or follow the AK results.)
Not impossible that we'll each buy each other Cokes.
Megan and Wafer, sittin' in a tree...
Joe Walsh lost. Anything new about Allen West?
I'll be up for the CA results. This erection isn't over.
Amazing reading the Israeli diplomats and pols scrabbling back across the line from crazyville.
Romney didn't really think he was going to win, right? Although maybe one of those bosses that no one will come clean to. He doesn't really seem to have his own Rove.
West down 1,000 with 97% reporting. Sadly Bachmann now up the same, but only in the 70s.
Sasha and Malia are up way past their bedtimes.
586: so the Walsh, West, Bachmann trifecta is still in play? That's nice.
I don't think the world has a violin small enough.
It's been said before, but Michelle Obama is a stone fox. Also, her husband doesn't do much for me any more. Still, he's the best president of my lifetime, so I should really stfu.
Still, he's the best president of my lifetime, so I should really stfu.
Noooooooo! You should have sfu until 8-ish last night. Now you should definitely be vocal about it. Time to earn it, Bronco!
Having been a dick in 590, it still blows me away that we have an African American president named Barack Hussein Obama. I'm not sure that means this country is redeemable, but it does give me some hope. What a fucking schmoe I am.
(I really don't expect anyone else to care about or follow the AK results.)
I'm totally down for following the bleak outlook for Democrats in a low population western state.
Tester is still in the lead. And so is AG Bullock, who's going for gov. The Sec of State has a pretty good website: http://electionresults.sos.mt.gov/default.aspx
I can never remember which was yes and which was no, but I think weed is winning too.
A wide range of radiantly happy good-looking women in the Obama crowd. At what point does it become skeevy to check out 20-somethings on TV when you're a 40-something partnered father? At all points?
It's morning in America, VW. At least if 30 passes.
589: They actually thought they would win? I'm beginning to think that they did.
"Darn that Hurricane Sandy!"
What about a third party sign? I bet Obama didn't vote Green.
Too much phone-banking today. My left ear really hurts something fierce. I'm getting that Valium after all. Who wants a glass of wine?
Good news to wake up to. Phew.
And Frowner! Cerebrocrat! Etc!
I'm totally down for following the bleak outlook for Democrats in a low population western state.
That makes two of us, then.
"the memory of the history"
That's my thing, fucker. Back off.
At what point does it become skeevy to check out 20-somethings on TV when you're a 40-something partnered father? At all points?
I'm afraid so.
"best campaign team ever"...WORD. They have the greatest entry on their CV ever now, right? "Got a Negro elected President TWICE".
1. Ogged!
2. I don't remember how you weaseled out of our "whitey" bet; you still owe me that money.
That's it for me. Hope Bachmann goes down and 30 wins in CA and Tester in Montana. Night all.
599: Way ahead of on both accounts, VDub.
Holy shit, he mentioned climate change.
Half the bar here (south mission, sf) cleared out after the concession. Just here for the schadenfreude, I guess.
I'm starting to think I might be wrong about 30. My numbers for Sonoma County were way off. Hmm, maybe my limp will go away.
596: At what point does it become skeevy to check out 20-somethings
The Trump campaign is down the hall.
Resolved question: http://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20120402235152AAfKyno
Man, watching these closely is really something. Every time I hit refresh, Prop 30 is closer to passing.
Weird, the NYT front page automatically plays the live video and it's only about 0.5s behind what's on my TV. I have seen the future.
I'm starting to think I might be wrong about 30.
You know what hope is.
I will literally be here all night. I hate myself. A lot.
616: look at that map in 611, bro. The numbers don't lie. My model: let me show you it.
That human trafficking proposition is winning huge. I look forward to hearing from that billionaire in the future.
613: the link in 611 is way better, Megan. Click the tab for 30. You get county-by-county numbers updated regularly. And yes, things look maybe hopeful, though I'm still not convinced.
The data that might matter is here. But I haven't seen it in map form.
30 still has a chance? awesome. kinda becks style
You won. You can shut up now, Mr. President.
I want a copy of Libération's front page from tomorrow.
621: here, bro. Click the 30 tab on the left and play around with the county-by-county returns.
He said "enormity" again! Monstrous!
623: submit to the dulcet tones, VW. And think how much you're going to enjoy these speeches when he's giving them for other people's campaigns Big Dog-style.
Jesus Obama, shut up and go bed your wife.
Show of hands: how many people here think this is the greatest nation on earth?
I am amused by the idea of addressing slol as "bro".
I was thinking of a map showing how much of each county has reported. So e.g. the SOS shows San Francisco hasn't reported at all. Only 8% of LA precincts. Etc.
I think Biden just touched Malia inappropriately.
The link in 611 is, like, minutes behind the Secretary of State data that slol and I linked.
ALSO COUNT IN MY PENIS, AMERICA'S HAPPY WARRIOR.
I will literally be here all night. I hate myself. A lot.
Think happy thoughts, like how tomorrow Mrs. Fields is going to pay me time and a half for guarding one of their gift shops in exchange for the qualifications of "has a police car" and "will eat enough free cookies to kill a pygmy rhinoceros".
The AK numbers haven't been updated in over an hour. Do I have to wait until the morning to find out how screwed we are? Perhaps!
633: unless I'm not understanding you, the map to which I've linked does just want you want.
Fucking christ wtf I'm going to bed.
the map to which I've linked does just want you want.
Doesn't show shading indicating pct reporting. Come on, haven't you read your Tufte?
Some kid on the podium with the Obamas and Bidens is rocking an awesome early-'90s hightop fade. You go, kid.
642: ah, I see what you want. If you find that, let me know. Still and all, unless my math is off again, the various maps seem to indicate that if current trends continue (and if some of my guesswork is at all accurate), it could pass.
If 30 passes, Halford, is there any chance that you'd like to join me in taking a huge dump on Molly Munger's lawn?
Mark Paul is confident. Maybe time for bed.
Bachmann's engine begins to misfire, first dropping one cylinder, then threes and fours: http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/minnesota/house/6/#.UJoIsRK9qk1
This is a good rundown of the races for the AK state senate and why it matters. Still no update to the returns.
Hey, if you click the Close Contents link at the SoS page, you can watch Prop 30 and Lundgren-Bera simultaneous.
Holy shit, 38 is getting fucking creamed. Is there some point at which any of the pundits, either in California or nationally, will intimate that maybe this election suggests that the electorate hates rich people?
San Diego County is worrying me, Megan. Can you reach out to bob and ask him to nuke those fuckers from space? Oh wait, they have the nukes down there, don't they?
643: Nerlens Noel is bringing back the fade , it's not early 90s any more!
My attempt to add up all of the individual Pennsylvania House races, using CNN's numbers, has around seventy thousand more votes going to Democratic candidates than Republican ones. (2,684,697 vs 2,613,452) Sigh.
I am not even going to believe this Bachmann race stuff until Mark Ritchie certifies it. A recount would be so awesome though. Kicking the crazy up to 11!
Also, in light of the Baldwin victory, I would like to point out that my humble MN House district returned Karen Clark, the first and longest-serving lesbian state legislator in the country, for another term.
Hey, and it looks like Heitkamp is going to win in North Dakota.
The new mayor of Stockton promises a zero-tolerance policy on crime, guaranteeing that all crimes, small and large, will be treated exactly the same. I wonder if he realizes how insane that sounds.
659: So is he going to start executing jaywalkers, or what?
Henry Waxman is in a close fight? Isn't he one of the great ones?
Dammit, now Bachmann is up again by 1700 or so. Idiots. Keith's winning handily by 75,000 votes. Too bad we can't transfer a couple of working-class suburbs from 5 to 6. We'd never miss 'em over here, and they could totally shift the character of the 6th.
Bachmann hanging onto a small lead. You can mainline the results here.
Maddow is calling the race for Silver.
661: Maybe it'll stay close, but that says 4% precincts reporting.
Ha! Check out the doofus the Repugs got to run in MN7! He looks like Eddie Munster!
My (open seat) House district looks like it's staying Republican. The only signs I saw on this street were Romney-Ryan (only about 3 or 4 houses had any signs for the presidential race) but I thought the district had become considerably more Democratic. On the other hand, the old incumbent used to get 60+% so it is an improvement even if the Republicans keep the seat.
660: I guess? All I know is that if I'm a Stockton resident, I'm definitely picking up after my dog.
I generally prefer violence or insults to pooping, but for you, VW, I'll poop on Molly Munger's lawn regardless of whether 30 wins or loses.
After all, I'm pretty sure she doesn't live in Stockton.
The NY Times Presidential map showing difference from 2008 by county is pretty damn good (and you can zoom into states). Some interesting patterns--many areas with significant minority populations improving on their 2008 performance. Ohio sandwiched between two of the biggest "movers"--Indiana and West Virginia.
So it looks like the marriage amendment here is going to be super tight AND 3 precincts in MPLS are going to be hand-counted, as the ballot was somehow printed such that some of the the machines couldn't read it. Great year to sit out election judging!
How's that Paul Ryan selection working out for you, Mr. Romney?
I guess? All I know is that if I'm a Stockton resident, I'm definitely picking up after my dog.
Too late, I'm already en route with bear spray.
Just poking around, it looks to me like Obama just might win Florida after all.
I get some special joy from this as my Fox addicted parents live there, and when I was down there last month, got to overhear my dad having a Fox talking points discussions about how skewed all the polls were.
I read earlier today that the Mungers spent more than $80 million on this election. They well might have nothing to show for their money. But I guess $80 million for them is like, what, $800 for us?
Again, will any pundits take the bold step of noting that this election suggests that the electorate hates rich people?
Looks like Lungren is going to beat Bera. I'd love to know the overall expenditures, including dark money, in that race. I'm betting that Bera got outspent by at least 5:1.
Frank Conniff: "Mitt is kicking himself - just one more lie, one more flip-flop, one more pander, he might have pulled it off."
Well, now with the MPLS precincts coming in, the marriage amendment spread is widening to the good. So, good for us!
678: Charles Munger: $35 million No on 30.
Molly Munger: $44 million Yes on 38.
And they may have spent on other races.
The new mayor of Stockton promises a zero-tolerance policy on crime, guaranteeing that all crimes, small and large, will be treated exactly the same.
As long as he promises to make everyone wear the same outfits they wore in that episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation...
678.2: Everyone should read knecht's link in 589.
Edward Freni, director of aviation for Logan, said an unusually large number of Gulfstream corporate jets were looking to park at the airport by late afternoon on election day. Logan had accommodated 80 of them by 4:30 p.m., roughly double the 40 to 50 it sees on a typical day, he said.
Heitkamp seems likely to have won. Tester is up pretty big (but with less than half the votes counted -- Charley where are the returns coming from?). And Berkley seems to be making a pretty serious move in NV.
The Republicans successfully turned the 2012 election into a referendum on rape. And rape lost.
The election now is over,
The time of strife is past.
I will kiss your elephant,
And you can kiss my ass!
An awful lot of Tester ads talked about Rehberg voting for legislation that helps "multimillionaires like himself."
But we seem to have chosen Daines to replace Rehberg. Tech millionaires are better than real estate millionaires?
Jerry Brown just called victory for Prop 30.
Wait, who's going to be Senate Majority Leader? Do we know already? Am I forgetting something? WTF?
678.2: Chris Hayes: "Well if this is a mandate for anything it's definitely a mandate for higher taxes on the rich."
As much as a dislike McConnell, I have to admit, having watched the Senate for a while, he's a pretty skilled opposition leader.
688: I went for that joke earlier tonight and failed. Well done.
Tech millionaires
are geeks. Geeks are our new overlords. Ask Nate Silver. He has a model.
Jerry Brown just called victory for Prop 30.
He did? Did he have Dick Morris with him?
I think there are some Republican counties yet to count. But also the Indian reservations. It's going to be close.
Bera now up on Lungren, 93% reporting. 700 vote margin.
700: I just saw that wonderful news. And 30 is looking better and better. California voters have healed my limp!
Nope, I'm still limping. Oh well, at least I'll be able to limp to my job.
I think my lifetime Facebook "like" count has just doubled.
All the ballot measures I voted on are losing, except the one where we ask for an amendment to overrule Citizens United. That's passing with 75% of the vote.
I think Tester is going to win. And prove Nate Silver wrong. Ha!
Prop 30 might actually affect my job prospects, which have recently taken an unexpected upward turn. (Application processes still going, but actually moving.)
706: can you say more? Can you at least reveal which part of the state you might call home?
On the other hand, the child rights advocate attorney running for my open state house seat is crushing the gun rights lobbyist.
Jon Schwarz: "Nate Silver being right brings up the very real and terrifying possibility that climate scientists are too."
707: Not exactly? But I did finally e-mail you about your graphic history (apologies to those offended by mentions of off-blog etc etc) so...
Bera now up by two points, and it looks like the margin is growing larger with time. Charley, you need to bring home a win for Tester, and then Berkley has to pull it out in NV.
710: I'll send it off to you tomorrow. It's pretty weird, and I'm curious to see what you think. I might actually send you a few of the chapter drafts. Don't worry, though, they're very short and have almost no words.
Marcy Kaptur 72.6% Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher 23.5%. House seat NW Ohio.
But looks like Bachmann is gong to hold on, up 1,600 @ 87%.
I think I'll call it a night, but it still looks good for Tester. And I'm happy that Bullock is running even better than Tester, and Denise Juneau better than both of them. With the Indian counties not all the way in yet.
My local state seats look reliably Democratic now, but I have no idea how the remaining precincts break down. The House race is getting closer.
Missed this from "before" the real Rove meltdown.Megyn Kelly to Karl Rove: "Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is it real?"
It appears that popular vote margin will be over 100,000 in Ohio (not quite as optimistic as my projection just before they called it) and over 2 million by a fair amount nationally.
Huh, Waxman still losing.
Also, where's teo? I demand Alaska results (and I'm not going to look them up myself).
I'm still here, and Alaska results are still here. 77% reporting, still not looking good.
It looks like I was right about the Democrats in my own districts winning easily, though.
Alaska results are still here
You can't trick me into clicking. That link will remain blue on all screens I have access to.
It also looks like the bond issue is going to pass and all the judges are going to be retained, including the one who was specifically targeted by the far right over his rulings in favor of abortion rights. So that's good.
Oh, and Don Young won. I'm sure you're all shocked.
Ogged! This is what I get for doing all my post-game at the other place.
100% reporting, Bera up 184 votes on Lungren. I think this means it'll be a while before it can be declared official.
Huge jump in my House race. Democrat now up almost 5000.
There seems to be a real chance of a Democratic super majority in the California legislature. Also Waxman is moving up. Counting seems to have slowed and I'm finally tired so I'm calling it a night.
I'm too drunk to actually comment, but I'm going to bed alone tonight, which means I'm disappointed in America. Just sayin'.
659: I saw that the official "Visit Stockton" tourism board had been "liked" by my aunt on Facebook, which made me think "oh, irony," until I remembered how underwater her mortgage was, and then I felt sad.
and re: 30 I just... wow. Yay, California! I really am surprised. Yay!
This erection pulled all the blood out of my head, so I went to bed early. I've now finished catching up with Unfogged. I can safely look at other websites now.
Happy Happy Joy Joy
30 won! 36 won!
(I enjoyed Alex's extended metaphorical use of Midway.)
731: sadly....Bachmann's Zero crabs wildly across the Wake Island flarepath, the port main gear digs into the crushed coral surface and collapses. the prop strikes the runway and shatters as glycol fumes fill the cockpit. astonished ground crew prise open the canopy and she staggers away towards the flight line. it's a constructive total-loss, but it beats death.
Monday morning ufgged-east q'backing (wed midday edn)
1: the road-testing of the citizens united decision has not developed entirely to the 1%'s advantage
2: TRUMPBOT SMASH *trumpbot falls over on face in puddle of someone else's vomit*
3: no one ever got rich betting against the continued stupidity of the US pundit class, but -- and usually like emerson I am pro creative transformative intuition and against the soulless bead-counting technocrat where'er he be -- but Team Silver has surely helped ding the the current pundit-layer's crappy jalopy, in a way that a mere unpredicted shock dem win would not have done
4: ratfuck report (relevant internal repug warfare): husted knew -- because he could see on his master screen, the one with the knob that technologically flipped the votes -- that ohio was gone beyond critical *before* the point where technological vote-flipping could be brought in to save the day; he informed the Fox deciders and went home to weep; he pointedly didn't tell rove bcz FUCK TURDBLOSSOM
Ha, I went to bed two minutes before Ohio was called, so this thread restarted in the right place! I'm so happy to see the long-gone folks I've known and read. Plenty of reasons to be happy, though what did McConnell do this time???
Our school board election, just about the only place my vote made any difference, elected two incumbents I liked (the women!) and two of the Tea Partiers who insisted they could only govern as a group of four so they'd have a majority in the group. People are predicting they'll resign after the first time things don't go their way if not before. I don't think I put in enough work to be appointed, but maybe something like that should be a longer-term goal.
It's the four stages of vote rigging, isn't it?
1) nobody who might vote Other Guy bothers, they know it's rigged, you don't need to bother
2) for some reason Other Guy has a good day, you nudge the margin up but not too much
3) Other Guy has an unusually good day, OMG PANIC!!!, the results go from mediocre to 99.9% within the last hour of polling, nobody can ignore the charade any more, Independence Square fills with the mob.
4) El Presidente has such a shit day that the vote riggers realise there is no hope, and trying to rig the ballot would just stick them with the responsibility. Other Guy wins.
735: exactly. Also a significant proportion of low-grade riggers aren't principled warriors at all, but merely unpleasant get-along types more interested in being seen to be on the winning team. If they catch the winds of change early they will stay their secret hand, because when treason prosper etc ect .
(Why yes I *did* rewatch Godfather II on Film4 a few nights back: the best spookiest section is the Batista election party, really catches that strange late-night wtf sensation of things no longer in control and the controlling class and their minions totally disoriented, and ideally fleeing for the airport...)
Boy, what a dream last night. All sorts of unfoggeders were in it. But then I woke up with this big erection.
I think that should have been a presidential erection, given the content of the dream.
The sense of relief is as great as I imagined. I feel the rage draining away. Now I just have to wait for the lame duck session of Congress to restore it.
"What a relief! Romney got booted last night" Tom emitted nocturnally.
Tester looking good in Montana. Up almost 4 with 88% reporting.
739: there really is nothing like a good erection.
I am really somewhat taken aback that the DFL retook control of the MN legislature. I had not anticipated that, but it's great news. And to think we would probably not have seen this except for the Repugs shooting themselves in the foot with those two stupid amendments! Ha-haaa!
Wow, and Prop 30 now at 54% with 94.8% reporting. We owe a huge debt of gratitude to the people who campaigned for it - especially the college student activists, who were extremely active in every way possible. The exit polls (apparently) show it had a huge lead among 18-24s, and I'll bet they had a much higher turnout this election than before.
There will still be some shortfall in the budget next year due to ever-changing projections. I wonder how much of that 36 and 39 will close! It's exciting.
Is Karl Rove hiding in an undisclosed location?
Good news around the country, but Jesus Christ did the Democrats get wiped out in NC. Republican governor, veto-proof Republican majorities in both houses of the General Assembly, almost all the statewide offices, and they hold the Supreme Court. It's going to be grim down here for the foreseeable future.
It's not undisclosed so much as nobody can find it since he used his own math to calculate directions.
One of the few losers tonight is the people of North Carolina who are now faced with a unified government of Republican religious maniacs.
I'm looking forward to the thousand years of darkness Chuck Norris promised.
I woke up this morning with a raging blue erection but the doc tells me it's all going to be okay.
Wow, I scrolled up like 500 comments just to see if apostropher had posted anything to the effect of 751. Apparently I should have refreshed.
Anyway, sorry d00d. I hope you can still move to Virginia.
But we seem to have chosen Daines to replace Rehberg. Tech millionaires are better than real estate millionaires?
They are certainly more reflective of whatever "libertarian streak" is supposed to be characteristic of places like Montana.
Hey, my plan to pass out and hope for the best worked! State can continue to exist, and LA County saved everyone's ass. FUCK YEAH. Also Molly Munger is rich, but not rich enough to try that again.
Even my Hollywood dollars sent to North Dakota worked! Time for a steak breakfast.
751 makes me sad, as does the loss of Howard Berman, (though that last is not really a big deal).
But, Jesus Christ, we're close to a 2/3 dem majority in the Legislature. I don't think it's possible to understand how big a deal if you're not from California. Basically, the state has been ungovernable since 1978, and now may be governable again. Best election ever.
So without reading the thread or googling, how do the various California props look? They were grim when I went to bed and I've never been super clear on which one was which, anyway.
Nevermind, I just saw Minivet's comment above. So Prop 30 is the big one.
760 Basically, the good guys won almost totally, thanks to late returns mostly from LA. We raised taxes on millionaires and avoided destroying our university system and ability to provide social services. We got mostly rid of the horrible three strikes law. We stopped an effort to defund unions in politics. The death penalty won't be abolished (though that this was a close vote surprised me) and a kind of silly sex trafficking law passed overwhelmingly, but all in all it's possibly the best night in California politics in more than 30 years, and it will be if (as seems very possible but isn't sure yet) there's a 2/3 Dem majority in the Legislature.
Jerry Brown tied the tax raise to education funding in a way that is practically extortion, but if college student activists provided the margin, then his strategy was sound.
Essential readings in Schadenfreude #76. "Governor Kasich and the Worst Victory Party in America.
We just happened to have FOXNews on during the Rove/Ohio meltdown. I'm annoyed with myself for getting caught up in re-figuring the numbers* (and briefly going tinfoil) rather than just sitting back and enjoying the show. And it was quite the show (worth a watch). I do wonder if Rove was in any kind of contact with anyone at the Romney campaign who were also balking at the time.
*Especially since my son and I had literally just done our own estimate that had Obama prevailing by ~150K (it's ~100K right now, suspect it might go higher with provisionals). Knew Ohio results were going to be U-shaped through the evening as early voting results tallied first which favored Ds, then rural, then suburban parts of big counties and finally the election day votes of the big urban areas (counts always come in that way in Ohio). The "call" of Ohio came in just before the bottom of the 'U' (Romney up by 20K at the trough). The thing which triggered my tinfoil was a short period right after it had been called when the Romney closed in by about 40K votes and neither my son nor I could find the corresponding changes in the totals of any of the counties with significant precincts left to be counted. I blame PTSD from 2000 and 2004.
In his House race Ryan lost his town and county. That is so great.
762: The Chron says they did it and got the supermajority. I can't quite make myself believe it.
I'm still trying to figure out if Romney and/or his campaign were so deep in their bubble that they actually thought they would win. I assume it will all come out in time--losing campaigns don't tend to keep secrets very well.
For me best insta-takedown of Rove the master trickster was actually a twitpic that sausagely tweeted: of the Ohio victory party as Rove still span, room quite emptied, bunting drooping, cake staling, jelly turning drippingly back to water -- everyone had gone home. Obvious at that point that Rove was spinning primarily to himself -- until someone could get in close enough to break the news. Significant I think that he wasn't in the loop it was first broken to.
For me best insta-takedown of Rove the master trickster was actually a twitpic that sausagely tweeted: of the Ohio victory party as Rove still span, room quite emptied, bunting drooping, cake staling, jelly turning drippingly back to water -- everyone had gone home. Obvious at that point that Rove was spinning primarily to himself -- until someone could get in close enough to break the news. Significant I think that he wasn't in the loop it was first broken to.
I trust you're all so tired from voting multiple times.
Tester still ahead, plenty of votes still to count. Bullock too. Juneau's margin has melted into double digits, though.
I'm very happy the supermajority seems to have been achieved, but I hope it won't have to be used for anything major for at least two years. First, it could squanders some of the goodwill provided for 30. Second, even if the Legislature has the power to raise taxes, the tax-revolt running-dogs can submit measures to cancel any move they make (with a simple majority), and will probably try at the earliest opportunity.
But, Jesus Christ, we're close to a 2/3 dem majority in the Legislature. I don't think it's possible to understand how big a deal if you're not from California. Basically, the state has been ungovernable since 1978, and now may be governable again. Best election ever.
As I understand it you've been "close to a 2/3 dem majority" since before the Gray Davis era, and because of term limits the Republicans never ever compromise on anything because they care much more about keeping their paymasters happy for future employment. Do you now have an ACTUAL 2/3 dem majority?
Now wait, big bump for Juneau in the last refresh. Native votes coming in at last, maybe? A couple of the tribes sued just before the election to get more polling places in remote areas, and lost.
So, was it not close enough to steal? Did they not have access to enough machines in enough states, so that flipping Ohio would've been to obvious? Or is machine rigging harder to do than I think, requiring a bigger-than-practical conspiracy?
Oops, apologies. Blame double-post on the thought of jelly.
769: Yeah, that might be the same picture that theads the article at the first link in 765.
Yeah, it looks like we do, in both houses. I can't believe that if we get to a place where we can functionally negotiate a budget, we did it not by fixing the fucked up rules but by brute force.
(CA re-districted for one, and instituted a top-two primary system, so that a few races were D v. D.)
I'm all for election night triumphalism, and I think disagreeing with Krugman is among the easiest ways to ensure being wrong, but surely this post is unduly optimistic.
774 -- yes, a 2/3 majority, or at least very probably yes.
I'm hoping for targeted, nonvisible taxes on specific industries, at least for a while. But it means you won't have to do ultra-visible things like raise the vehicle license fee to fund basic government.
781.2: Right. Pollution taxes, perhaps. Stuff the revolters would throw up their hands at.
It would be nice if Prop 30's passage came to mean that the Tax Revolt is over, after thirty destructive years.
Maybe you guys will open up your state parks again?
739: there really is nothing like a good erection.
There are no books like an erection, and nothing looks like an erection.
I just went over to little green footballs . . . what's going on in this crazy world??
When Romney said he'd pray for Obama, what did he mean? How do conservative religious folk interpret that?
783: The situation was pretty dire. I wouldn't bet on it.
780: I really hope it's not too optimistic. We really need some regulation of Wall Street. Plus a little revenge would be nice, but I doubt that will ever happen.
I wouldn't bet on and end to tax revolt either, but I hope our new legislature are good retail politicians and can stay in office.
786: Fascinating, isn't it? It's as though Charles Johnson woke up one morning and had a good look at the people his years of nutty hatemongering had put him in bed with. It must have been one hell of a hangover, because he even went on to discover that there was such a thing as painting Islam with too broad a brush and that there might be more fanatics in the world than just Muslim ones. I honestly thought he'd gone so deep into it all that he would never make out, so, good for him.
But if you miss the vintage LGF kookery, Johnson apparently challenged his discontented neo-fascist former fellow-travellers to start their own blog if they didn't like his anymore. It's called "the Blogmocracy." I don't have the heart to look in on it, but it's probably going deliciously crazy about now...
787: Bless his heart, I'm sure he meant well.
Slate pitch: Nate Silver, no big deal*. Oops, actual Slate article.
That erection was long and hard, but last night left me pretty satisfied.
LGF's change of heart was several years back, wasn't it? CJ travelled over to Europe to some big anti-Eurabia conference, listened to the kinds of speeches Geer/t Wil/ders et al were giving and realised that many present were unhinged racists a single onionskin away from being real actual active fascists: came back to his blog and said so; and also -- to his credit -- said "no more of this for me".
LGF's change of heart was several years back, wasn't it? CJ travelled over to Europe to some big anti-Eurabia conference, listened to the kinds of speeches Geer/t Wil/ders et al were giving and realised that many present were unhinged racists a single onionskin away from being real actual active fascists: came back to his blog and said so; and also -- to his credit -- said "no more of this for me".
wtf? I blame Jon Husted.
I think Sam Wang at Douchebag University Election Consortium comes out looking even better than Silver.
thanks for the explanation, tierce. still washing off the dregs of sleep and finding this new world to be a strange and wonderful place.
796: I don't know the precise timeline but that sounds plausible.
Hypothesis: this election proves nobody has the ability to manipulate voting machines or results in any significant way. Husted and Scott absolutely had the will to fix the results, and the media was all primed to accept it, but they focused on restrictive ID laws and procedures, reduced voting hours, insufficient polling places, etc. because those were the most effective tools they had.
Does this seem right?
798: Sure, maybe. But was mocking the need for Slate to "set the record straight" so quickly. There's probably not much in the article that Silver or Wang or any of them would disagree with. It's really a triumph of polling itself, and the strength of aggregation of same.
And Silver certainly was the one who was out front fighting the good fight against the confederacy of dunces.
802. Seems right to me. Rigging the results of a shambolic chain of badly written software would require a lot of organization, with communications and many trusted people. Since organization is required, overt rather than covert means are the only way forward.
798 -- he seemed to get things more right earlier than Silver and in the few cases where there was a difference between state-level poll aggregation (Wang) and poll aggregation plus special sauce (Silver), for example the North Dakota Senate race, aggregation seems to have done a little better. But of course the results don't really prove this, and even if they did I'm not really sophisticated enough to make the argument.
If they opted for ID laws etc. because they thought that would be more effective, that doesn't mean that they didn't have the ability to do the other things.
And of course that Slate article is a fatuous joke.
802: Obama underperformed the polling averages in Ohio.
796: Near as I can tell from a quick look, yes. Other bloggers from the far right were critical of LGF in 2009, for example.
Not rain on anyone's parade but the loons are still out there. The far right, neo-nazis, lizards-in-disguises, and others are really working themselves up this morning.
785 made me happy but now I'm going to go around humming it.
What would happen if an election were stolen in an obvious way through rigged voting machines? I don't think the people who are capable of rigging the voting machines would want to find that out. If I were in their shoes, and I were capable of rigging an election, I would only play at the margins to win close races and, if my nominee couldn't make it close, would blame him, rightly.
And Silver certainly was the one who was out front fighting the good fight against the confederacy of dunces.
Right. Silver won big because prominent nuts chose him as their target, and he made fools of the fools. It's not as though Wang was mocking Silver, or vice versa.
Right, I agree with 813.
I do think the analogy to Sabermetrics is apt; I think in the next cycle everyone but the most retrograde commenters will give the poll aggregators at least grudging respect, just as most people now accept that at OBP is an important stat. That's good news because it reduces the power of the bloviators and bullshitters
Robert Halford, you almost sound grumpy today. Who doesn't want the far right to be working themselves up? If they retired early, that would really put this blog on ice. I want links to Republicans getting all worked up, if anyone has them.
LGF is amazing. I cannot believe that, well, the thing I can't believe is that he kept the same name for the website as it transitioned from Racists R' Us to Racists Not Welcome. Nowadays online writers rebrand themselves every 6 weeks.
812. Hope the job search is going well. How are you sleeping?
809: Silver had polling average at 3%. Currently it is showing 1.9%, but I suspect that will grow somewhat. (I checked the Ohio SoS site earlier this AM and Obama's lead had bumped up another 7k from what the news sites have right now. But now I cannot re-find the preliminary results page ...)
I'm all for election night triumphalism, and I think disagreeing with Krugman is among the easiest ways to ensure being wrong, but surely this post is unduly optimistic.
Obama's pick for the next Treasury secretary will tell us something on the Wall Street score. Also, the next SEC chair. If we see another bank-friendly pair like Geithner and Mary Schapiro, watch out.
thanks lw! I'm sleeping ok. The baby is starting to get accustomed to the idea that nighttime is different from daytime.
819: and rest of the senior cabinet
Rigging the results of a shambolic chain of badly written software would require a lot of organization, with communications and many trusted people.
It would? Why?
I'd been assuming the various suppression efforts were an effort to at least keep it close enough to make rigging non-obvious, or to make actual law breaking unnecessary so as to minimize risk. You don't want to have to assassinate too many operatives.
Obama has to realize that he either needs to assume Wall Street is his enemy, or he has to give them everything they want, including daily tongue baths.
819 -- yep. Last time around I knew this wouldn't be the regulatory administration of my dreams as soon as they picked the former head of FINRA as the SEC chair.
Hopefully, Obama will understand that the one unquestionably economic progressive thing he did, saving the auto industry, was probably the most important factor in getting him reelected.
Writing the equivalent of a big red knob to turn from a master control room is tricky. There would be email detailing implementation between the programmers involved and their managers, testing records, secret operating instructions-- implausible to me that it could be kept quiet. The model is I think not spying but rather the motor vehicle administration and its bureaucrats, with the actual bureaucrats being well-intentioned and untrained local volunteers.
816: Well, change of heart or not, I think Johnson is still a bit of a douche. He continues to propagate the fiction, apparently, that he himself never promoted racism -- that it was just some commenters on his site who did -- and that it was by chance that he attracted the adulation of nutjobs like Pa/m Gel/ler or the Gates of Vienna cob-loggers. So in his mind, there's no need to re-brand.
804: Rigging the results of a shambolic chain of badly written software would require a lot of organization, with communications and many trusted people. Since organization is required, overt rather than covert means are the only way forward.
And the right's hostility to anything but business-driven corporate versions of such systems increasingly works against them -- at least, I choose to believe this (the anarchists present will perhaps scoff). By ideological choice, this is a politics which refuses to accept there are distinct advantages to be had from state-type or big-govt-type models of organisation. (This can doubtless be overstated -- a republican economy will still be a mixed economy -- but I think the belief that a nation and a political movement are both best run as they're businesses runs deep, and is beginning to have a corrosive effect on the competence with which the US right approaches either.)
(Which I suppose is a pro-technocrat "liberal process" argument -- but my position there isn't that technocrats know and can do nothing, it's that once they have management power they can become very bad at recognising the limits of what they know...)
818: Ah, here it is. Now at almost precisely a 2% lead vs. 3% poll, but from another page there it appears that there are 300K absentee and provisional ballots outstanding, with urban counties over-represented. Will probably add a few tenths.
And in hacking around the SoS site to find that came across these words from their voter portal: "As an Ohio voter when I exercise my RIGHT to vote on Election Day, I have a RESPONSIBILITY to do my part."
It's hard to tell if Atlas is shrugging or having a full-blown seizure:
So take a breather, regroup, and fight, fight, fight. When the enemedia lies and deceives, we will be there, When the Obama regime tries to impose restrictions on free speech (blasphemy laws), we will storm the Capitol. We will take to the streets and we will fight for our freedom.
Huh. Realistically, how many programmers would voting software even need? It seems like something a single decent programmer could churn out in a month. Slipping in some backdoor or a big red knob would seem to require even less.
It seems like something a single decent programmer could churn out in a month.
People overrate the skill of single decent programmers and underrate the frustrations of dealing with poorly defined functional specs, hardware interactions, multiple languages, security, and testing. A single decent programmer could write a voting system in a month, sure, but it would only work on their desktop machine and would fall short on all sorts of obscure requirements.
needs to assume Wall Street is his enemy
Dow Jones is down 300 points this morning.
831: Doesn't I only need to work on one machine? And, uh, security testing? Perhaps I'm underestimating the complexity of the government requirements.
Hopefully, Obama will understand that the one unquestionably economic progressive thing he did, saving the auto industry, was probably the most important factor in getting him reelected.
I feel compelled to point out that it was Bush who began the auto bailout.
Glenn Greenwald gets one right: "Complaining that Obama won only because lazy minorities want free hand-outs is probably not the best way for the GOP to begin its makeover."
Obviously you need to remember the lazy women.
830: The back door is trivial and already there. When the precincts are compiled, the software goes tilt on obvious weirdness and asks for instructions. Obvious weirdness meaning say 100k more voters than residents.
1) I am wondering, without good reason, if early voting gets in the way.
2) A very close election may not be worth the risk. As we see, this one was close to keep the House in Republican hands, and nothing drastic is going to be done against their interests in the next four years.
3) I am sure that an election not close can be stolen at the software level. However, probably only once, and they will probably get "caught." "Caught" will not prevent the politicians from being sworn in, but it means that what is done after inauguration would be radical and irrevocable.
4) So very serious and permanent economic change would have to be on the Democratic agenda. The kind of changes that led to the Civil War, and the assassination plot against FDR. Obviously Obama is not going there, even if he had a better House. Nobody is going to war over 35% top marginal rate going to 39%.
5) However, those freaking demographics, Republicans are panicking, not because of racism, but because the Demographics might cost them real fucking money.
6) So imagine Warren or someone to her left running in 2016, with demographics pointing toward her getting a House Majority and Senate Supermajority.
And promising a return to 70% marginal rates.
7) Then I think they would steal the election, with an idea toward secession under the most favorable circumstances. Whether you believe it is racism, or minority-driven socio-economic policies, Dixie is not going to be ruled by racial minorities.
Put yourself in their shoes for a moment, and see if you can come up with any alternative plan to keep Dixie White. Because they are going to try.
They really will not give up the notion that they are beset by childlike starry-eyed Obots and hero worship.
No, the Democrats as well as Republicans ran campaigns largely based on how voters should be afraid of the other guy. Rural, religious and elderly white people were afraid of the Kenyan anticolonialist. Everyone else was even MORE afraid of a fairly standard top businessman.
I've often been skeptical of the "GOP doomed by demographics" argument, if only because I've been hearing it for so long without seeing it come true. But this chart really would worry me if I were a GOP strategist.
The Onion announces lead GOP front runner for 2016 .
The markets are down because of Mario Draghi, I think.
PS: My County Dallas, went Obama 57-42, almost as good as Travis 60-36, though not as good as El Paso 66-33 Obama.
Don't forget us when deciding on Civil War II.
And a million white liberals would turn the state, if you get tired of hurricanes and think Yggles' Minneapolis is too cold. 76 today in Dallas.
PPS:Check out Dallas Co vs Travis
Bunch of traitorous Stein voters down there in the tiny hamlet of Austin
Dude. 841 starts sound automatically.
Can the conventional wisdom please die surrounding "Latinos are social conservatives waiting to be reached out to by Republicans on immigration":
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/latinos-endorse-legal-abortion/
what did McConnell do this time???
He released a statement saying basically that even though Obama won, the election proves that Americans looooooove Republican control of the House, so Obama had better move to the center. He did not mention the Senate races.
It was more of the tone I was responding to. I posted while they were talking about it on MSNBC.
840: Here's a good chart from Yglesias.
834, cont.: In any case, I'm not seeing a case for why rigging one type of machine would require a conspiracy of more than a few well-placed people. To pull trigger or push the button, though, they do need to feel like it's necessary and will turn the election, and I suppose interstate coordination might be trickier.
I really would like to see a breakdown of Silver type projections from polls, perhaps exit polls and demographic information, vote tally, state leadership, and machine type and company for recent elections, especially 2004. Why won't someone do this for me?
I take comfort in the fact that the Republican attempts to suppress the vote probably did more to fire up Obama's base and created far more votes for him than they suppressed. Maybe they didn't, but I'm with Andrew Cohen that it's as good of an overriding theory of the election as anything else.
Conspiracies are unstable and fragile. Politicians aren't trying to grab something and run, they're trying to maintain public power, so need certain execution that leaves no traces. The agents would be boobs like the ACORN video guy or HR Haldeman, not professional spies.
Look at how existing political scandals unfold-- Edwards had a conspiracy to keep his mistress secret, the head of PASOK had a conspiracy to keep his bank accounts secret.
845: There should be some standard netiquette regarding autoplay shit on websites similar to 'NSFW' warnings for nudity. In my perfect universe no such websites would exist but they seem to be increasingly common.
One of the things I feel best about is how great voter turnout was, even rivaling 2008. I don't know if it's the fact that getting people to vote a second time is easier than getting them to vote the first time, or if Obama's campaign team should never ever be underestimated, or what. It would be cool if it's the former and if it had some legacy effect.
Let me Godwin up the thread. Goebbels:
When democracy granted democratic methods for us in the times of opposition, this was bound to happen in a democratic system. However, we National Socialists never asserted that we represented a democratic point of view, but we have declared openly that we used democratic methods only in order to gain the power and that, after assuming the power, we would deny to our adversaries without any consideration the means which were granted to us in the times of opposition.
855: Right, there's the strategy for maintaining power. The Bush administration started using the DoJ to go after Democrats. If they had been a little less incompetent, who knows? That was a fragile conspiracy that, when discovered and publicized, resulted in no consequences. It's hard to imagine a conspiracy better suited to leaving no traces than corrupting non-public computer code.
If the stock market wasn't already pricing in an Obama victory, then our supposedly numbers-focused financial overlords are even dumber than the pundits.
It's hard to imagine a conspiracy better suited to leaving no traces than corrupting non-public computer code.
The fact that election code isn't open sourc is a crime against democracy.
765: [me] I do wonder if Rove was in any kind of contact with anyone at the Romney campaign who were also balking at the time.
Instantly, Fox phones lit up with angry phone calls and e-mails from the Romney campaign, who believed that the call was premature, since tallies in several Republican-leaning Southern counties hadn't been been fully tabulated. "The Romney people were totally screaming that we're totally wrong," one Fox source said. "To various people, they were saying, 'your decision team is wrong.'" According to a Fox insider, Rove had been in contact with the Romney people all night. After the Ohio call, Rove -- whose super-PAC had spent as much as $300 million on the election, to little avail -- took their complaints public, conducting an on-air primer on Ohio's electoral math in disputing the call.Answers that.
The amount of money that went into this failure is probably my favorite part.
I don't think any of the vote-suppression, vote stealing stuff (much of which is not new) can move more than 1% of the vote in a big state without being so blatant to be easily catchable. Nor do I think it's Republican proponents had hopes for it beyond that. Here the Obama margin in Ohio was clearly bigger than that, so you'd have to look pretty carefully to figure out the effect.
The more interesting question to me is the difference between the national house of representatives vote by party and the seats won. I think there will be a difference (though I haven't seen the numbers yet) which suggests that the Republicans "stole" the House through (legal but awful) redistricting.
860: I was particularly smirking at McMahon in Connecticut in that regard. All that money, and all those (really quite well done) attack ads, and for 35% of the vote.
861.2: That's pretty much what this analysis says. Big majority in a census year.
I don't think any of the vote-suppression, vote stealing stuff (much of which is not new) can move more than 1% of the vote in a big state without being so blatant to be easily catchable
What would catch it? Where does that 1% figure come from?
861.2: Yes, PA a poster child for this. Per above somewhere from dalriata, PA Congress: 5 Ds and 13 Rs even with Dems + 60K in votes.
Where does that 1% figure come from?
Conventional wisdom when I worked in GOTV politics 15 years ago. Not a particularly robust number, to be sure.
So is there any hope of California getting rid of the 2/3 legislature rule?
See? We've seen a whole bunch of money candidates fail. (You'd think their heirs would object.) I deeply enjoy that part, and wish I could enjoy it without the fretters telling me that money is dispositive.
Hope? I don't know if there are plans, but with a supermajority, the Dems can make Constitutional amendments unilaterally.
Steinberg has been so intensely frustrated for so long and he pays attention to process. Maybe?
866: If I'm reading the first chart posted by Wang in the comments here, Florida was off the polls by more than 3%, and Ohio by perhaps by 2% (if you attribute that late trend to noise, which I'm not sure is correct, but hey).
The mentally unbalanced Santa Claus impersonator seems to have won by about 200 votes over the widely beloved Muslim Indian immigrant physician. The DCCC could have helped out there.
867 -- it's a constitutional rule, passed by initiative amendment, so the Legislature can't undo it. CONCEIVABLY this Legislature or someone else could put an undo-the-2/3-rule constitutional amendment on the ballot, but that's a tough upward sell, especially without a hostage crisis.
There's another, albeit somewhat faint, hope for overturning it through the legal system that I really can't talk about here.
In any case, the error in state polls is larger than 1%, isn't it? Are there other limits on the size of election fraud?
I think I've used my question mark allowance by now. It's all conspiratorial declarations from here on out.
Right, I know that the legislature can't do it alone. I was mainly wondering if there was a push in motion to get it on the ballot. I haven't paid much attention to state politics in the last couple of years.
the Dems can make Constitutional amendments unilaterally.
Not really, unfortunately. They can put constitutional amendments on the ballot, though.
861.2: Yes, PA a poster child for this. Per above somewhere from dalriata, PA Congress: 5 Ds and 13 Rs even with Dems + 60K in votes.
Even in the best scenario it would be 7 Ds and 11 Rs, wouldn't it?
The entire 500,000-person Dem majority (2.8M to 2.3M in this election) is accounted for by Philadelphia. And Philadelphia has always been represented by two or three Democrats who get 90% of the vote.
What we lost was the John Murtha seat that would have gone Republican 20 years ago if not for John Murtha, and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. The latter being an authentic outrage since the entire eastern half of the state (other than the Philly area) has been redistricted so much that nobody knows what's going on. The York and Adams Counties district now consists of York and Adams Counties plus the city of Harrisburg. Barf.
The state legislature is slightly less Republican now, but still, with every statewide office going to Democrats in this election, the state legislature is Republican. And the state legislature itself isn't gerrymandered, is it?
You're right. I just looked that up. Sorry to give wrong information.
873: I am theoretically interested in this discussion. But most certainly not today. [And I'm not even going to mention the minor "anomalies" I saw snooping around the Ohio SoS website and took screenshots of.]
Pretty sure that the PA state legislature is gerrymandered, but not completely sure.
881: It's open and available .. and linked somewhere above. [Hint: Turnout.]
Ars Technica on electronic voting machines.
New Rule: White Male Pundits Shut the Fuck Up about what Obama "needs" to do. Your peeps did not deliver shit, so you get to say shit.
Hypothesis: this election proves nobody has the ability to manipulate voting machines or results in any significant way.
Almost every security analysis of voting machines I've seen shows that not only do they have serious security holes, they still have the exact same holes that were discovered last time around. At best, I'd conclude that the people who would like to manipulate elections aren't very technically savvy.
See this, for example.
In principle, electronic voting machines could be made to be more secure than traditional machines, with proper formal verification. In practice, it seems that the security "experts" employed by the companies that make these things aren't even aware of best practices from the 80s; they prefer to spend money on threats and PR rather than actual security experts.
883: Send me an email at link in my pseud and I will forward.
OK, Tester and Bullock are winners. Juneau still hanging on to a lead.
834: Doesn't [it] only need to work on one machine?
Assuming you are talking only about the vote-receiving and counting software, it needs to run on at least two machines, lest an ill-timed hard drive failure throw your election into chaos. And ideally, these two machines would have to be geographically separate, lest one of the locations get wiped out by an ill-timed hurricane. And if there are two redundant systems running the software simultaneously, they'd better be producing results that agree, and you had better have some process that makes sure they do.
These are the types of requirements that make software development a pain in the ass, and makes government IT projects outrageously expensive. The price of failure is too high, and too many people will be coming after you if things go wrong; you can't get away with all the shortcuts you might be able to pull off at shoestring-budget startup company.
Although, more commonly, what you have is a poorly-trained lady in a basement office with an Excell spreadsheet.
Oh, the names we're interested in are the ones highlighted in green on the spreadsheet. But not Bob's version, only Jane's.
We got redistricted and I only discovered when I voted that my rep is now Markey instead of Capuano, which sucks because Capuano's office is right down the street from work and Markey's are nowhere near either my house or office.
Hypothesis: this election proves nobody has the ability to manipulate voting machines or results in any significant way.
See, they want you to think that, so the intentionally didn't steal it this time so you let down your guard for next time. And they might try the same diabolical trickery next election and wait for the one after that!
Hypothesis: this election proves nobody has the ability to manipulate voting machines or results in any significant way.
No, it proves that no one had both the desire and ability to manipulate voting results in any significant way in 2012. That doesn't mean someone won't possess both the desire and the ability to do so in 2014. Or 2016. Or 2018. Or 2020.
I fear that in all the excitement the link to my Sexxxy Canvasser Halloween costume got lost. I wouldn't want to deprive y'all.
Hypothesis: this election proves nobody has the ability to manipulate voting machines or results in any significant way.
Better hypothesis: this election proves that the trend toward reducing the number of buggy, easily-compromised voting machines in American elections after the incredibly suspicious clusterfuck of Ohio 2004 has made it harder for people to manipulate the results via voting machines.
I'm amused to observe that in the vote count of the city where I live now, the Stein:Romney ratio is approximately equal to the Romney:Obama ratio (about 15%).
From the link at 884:
In 2012, a majority of states will use paper ballots. Another seven states have adopted a hybrid DRE-and-paper strategy.
I had no idea.
Yeah, that was the big surprise to me. (Direct) Electronic voting machines actually seem to be on the decline right now.
the incredibly suspicious clusterfuck of Ohio 2004
It's sort of sobering to realize that all the best evidence suggests that Democrats have now won SIX straight presidential elections in a row.
For the most hardcore tear-drinkers (NSFW). "I can make 15 fucking posts on Facebook and not fucking one of you will share it with people who don't want to see it, because you don't want to offend somebody!"
A Canadian friend of mine regularly posts links to Mark Steyn's NRO stuff. I didn't click through, but the gist of this one seems to be that Republicans were too cautious, didn't want to offend anyone, and failed to draw a stark contrast between the parties. As a result, this election doesn't say much about the big picture.
Republicans were too cautious
Oh god please let that be the lesson they take away from this election.
He might just be talking about New Hampshire. But I doubt that makes the piece any better.
902 is gold: "You wanna call me unhinged? I am!"
Christ this guy is fun!
898- In 2000 Nader got more votes than Bush.
If only Republicans had told the electorate what they really think of women, minorities and gays.
I find it amazing that about 70% of the vote in LA County went for Obama. That's not just a small liberal city, or even a large liberal city -- it's about 10 million people, or a larger population than 42 of the states.
Or that about 65% of NY State did. Those are just huge margins. It really is white male rural goobers vs. everyone else.
That your comment is 911, Halford, raises the important question: how many of those voters are real Americans?
I think the slice of LA county in my Congressional district went Republican. The Democratic candidate ended up winning. In fact, where I'm registered has now flipped since 2008 to being entirely Democratic outside of the non-partisan offices.
902: "...you Gary-Johnson-votin' douchebags... KISS MY ASS!" Wow, this is amazing.
Ugh, I had to stop listening after she got done with the Libertarians and moved on to the socialists.
"I spent 8 months in a Sarah Palin group, AND FOR WHAT!?"
916: Do they kiss your ass that much better than others?
Here's her Facebook page, so FUCKING FORWARD HER FUCKING POSTS YOU USELESS MOTHERFUCKING DOUCHEBAGS.
These people, they keep saying things that are the opposite of true. It's so weird!
"I believe [Obama] intentionally divided America to cause it to fall."
"Look at all the red on the electoral map last night. That red's paying for all that blue."
"If President Barack Obama wins, he will be the popular choice of Hispanics, African-Americans, single women and highly educated urban whites... A broad mandate this is not."
I'm surprised that so many people are skeptical about the demographic shift, when it's already taking effect. The Democrats have dominated Presidential elections for over 20 years now -- winning at least 5 of the last 6. This is a radical change from before: between 68 and 92, the only time the Democrats elected a President was in the wake of Watergate.
It's sort of sobering to realize that all the best evidence suggests that Democrats have now won SIX straight presidential elections in a row.
I just can't bring myself to say we won 2004. Ohio shenanigans aside, if you lose the popular vote by three million then you don't deserve to be president.
923: I'm gratified that when they get through all the various provisionals, absentees etc. that the margin this time has a chance of exceeding 3M. It's 2.8M now. 3.012 is the bogey to exceed 2004.
but the gist of this one seems to be that Republicans were too cautious, didn't want to offend anyone
Indeed. They were way too quiet on the whole rape issue this time around. They definitely need to talk about that a lot more next election...
between 68 and 92, the only time the Democrats elected a President was in the wake of Watergate.
This. And with what looks to us now like a totally bizarro electoral map in 1976, with the Democrats winning Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas, but losing California, Vermont, Michigan, and Iowa.
Ahh, but the strawberries that's... that's where I had them. They laughed at me and made jokes but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt and with... geometric logic... that a duplicate key to the wardroom icebox DID exist, and I'd have produced that key if they hadn't of pulled the Caine out of action. I, I, I know now they were only trying to protect some fellow officers...
Lots of great schadenfun in this tumblr.
Seriously:
When I'm at the Wal-mart or grocery story I typically pay with my debit card. On the pad it comes up, "EBT, Debit, Credit, Cash." I make it a point to say loudly to the check-out clerk, "EBT, what is that for?" She inevitably says, "it's government assistance." I respond, "Oh, you mean welfare? Great. I work for a living. I'm paying for my food with my own hard-earned dollars. And other people get their food for free." And I look around with disgust, making sure others in line have heard me.
That seems like an effective bit of political rhetoric, dude!
I should be a better person, but I'm clearly not. I could watch GOP tears all day.
Juneau's margin down around 1,200 (out of , 440,000 votes counted) with some hostile country yet to be counted.
I wonder how many Facebook posts that act generates where people write about the mentally ill person they saw at Walmart today.
(Denise Juneau is said to be the only Native statewide official in the US.)
930 is part of why demography isn't going to stifle the party of resentment; there's always going to be a reservoir of rage in people who hit middle-age without having gotten what they think they deserved.
She inevitably says, "it's government assistance."="I have never actually done this, but I have fantasized about doing it."
Charley, how did Montana's anti-corporate personhood resolution come out? In all the rest of the news, I didn't hear of that.
75/25 at last count.
They're hand counting 30,000 absentee ballots in Billings tonight. It's a Republican town, but the early voting electorate seems to skew Dem, so we'll see how it turns out.
Won't affect personhood, which is up by 200,000 votes, but the Juneau race is knife edge.
922:I'm surprised that so many people are skeptical about the demographic shift, when it's already taking effect.
I am not skeptical about the demographic shift, I am skeptical about the consequences or whether it is permanent. I have also seen other even larger majorities and coalitions in my lifetime, 1964, that dissipated fairly quickly.
Part of what makes it work, currently or in the near future, is that Republicans remain close, or have a geographical base. If Republicans lose Texas and a few other states to a permanent Democratic majority, then Republicans would disappear like Whigs, and we would likely split the Democratic Party.
If that isn't happening already.
There's a media narrative I've seen that goes something like "Americans voted for the status quo" implying that people like divided government and the House Republicans while reelecting Obama. This is totally false.
According to some guy I found on Twitter, there are only 5 House Districts in the entire country where there was a split ticket between the Presidential and the House Rep vote. Trying to confirm this. The country is more consistently partisan and straight-ticket-voting than it's ever been. The House is only Republican because of gerrymandering and clustering of Democrats.
And you look at some precincts in, say, Flathead County and you see Juneau, who's doing an OK job by any measure (but is a partisan) getting under 30% of the vote. While the AG did better than 40% against a strongly Karl Rove funded opponent. Do Not Like.
In that case Dems ought to make redistricting an issue at the state and local level, as much as they can. A good reason to think more about state and local politics I guess.
I'm not skeptical about any demographic shift, but I think Republicans may well to be able to find a way to better appeal to Midwestern white women.
Latino Groups to Obama YOU Owe Us
Main issue, immigration reform, meaning legalizing status. Secondary issue: Puerto Rican statehood.
PR statehood possibly means 5 additional Democratic Congresspersons for a decade (if Alaska and Hawaii pattern is followed) then reapportion back to 435. Or whatever Congress decides. Two Dem Senators, 7 Dem Electors.
And here Republicans have a problem that Rubio isn't going to solve.
But Obama is also expected to deliver through this Republican Congress.
942 -- Ship sailed for the next decade. I've never understood people who are interested in politics, but don't pay attention to state and local. A whole lot of stuff happens there, and it affects federal politics in the most important of ways: moving issues and stars up to the federal level.
Hypothesis: the fearsome, data-driven targeting of the Obama campaign made for less down-ticket bleed-over in non-competitive regions, which hurt D chances of taking the house. By contrast, the SuperPAC-fueled saturation-bombing ad campaign on the right was not very useful at reaching the relevant presidential or senatorial demographics, but worked swimmingly to keep R voters fired up where they didn't need to be for the larger national races.
(Like getting rid of the rape guys, for starters. And recognizing the importance of health care to women voters.)
946 -- Our statewide offices were mixed -- R for AG, Dem everything else -- and it looks like our state house will gain a Dem seat. No credit at all to Obama, who didn't even try (I've seen 3 of his signs all year). Much to Karl Rove.
R won Congress: better candidate on a number of factors.
If the gerrymandering is really obvious, can't people bring fourteenth amendment claims to try to overturn them? My memory of this issue is fuzzy, but I think there's some kind of constitutional argument to be made.
946 sounds like it makes sense. If true, you would see a similar affect in statehouse elections - but I haven't seen any comprehensive numbers on those.
Democratic failure to do better in the House races is actually kind of a big deal, and the one bright spot for the GOP last night.
946 -- nah, I think (based on what I read) that the partisan House vote pretty closely tracked the Presidential vote. It's just that the combination of clustering of Democrats and gerrymandering meant that a majority vote for a Democratic house of representatives didn't translate into a majority o Democrats elected to the House.
I was worried the pathetic loneliness of the woman in 902 would evoke my sympathies, but fortunately her self-righteousness and delusional self-importance cancelled that out. That tumblr brings nothing but joy.
I was writing a comment defending 946, but fuck it, I don't care. I just remembered that I can go back to ignoring political process bullshit for another year or so at least. I should find something to occupy, though.
Its totally possible that I'm wrong. I thimk someone else (Andrew Gelman?) has stuff on why gerrymandering doesn't matter.
Oop, she made it private. Where's the tumblr?
The House is only Republican because of gerrymandering and clustering of Democrats.
And Democrats are gerrymandered and clustered why? I have very mixed feelings about majority-minority districting, but even more generally too many Democrats like to fucking cluster in cities for instance.
Part of the reason I started getting mad around summer 2009 is that I knew 2010 was coming.
And I did spend a little time googling, but it ain't the easiest data to find, but my gut impression for a very long time is that Republicans seem to find a way to win more statehouses in years ending in zero.
too many Democrats like to fucking cluster in cities
I'm working on a theory that rural areas and suburbs cause conservatism. If it hadn't been for Eisenhower and the Interstate Highway Act, we would now be living in enlightened, topless America.
Aw hell, there would hardly be any problems left in this country if a million, almost exactly, of you yankee and coastal Democrats would move on down here to Texas.
I mean, you don't want us moving to California do you?
And this is another reason not to count on demographics without deeper analysis. I sure don't want a million fucking Republicans getting fed up with living in blue states and moving down here. They would negate the black and Latino gains.
Yes that shit happens.
On redistricting, I'll note that the AK state senate stuff I was talking about upthread was mostly driven by the way the latest redistricting was done. It was a real longshot for the Dems to keep it tied up even before the election.
The House is only Republican because of gerrymandering and clustering of Democrats.
Redistricting took our Congressional delegation from the current 7D-6R to 9R-4D (or possibly 10-3, pending one recount).
Redistricting twice in the last twelve years has made Texas much worse, although the eternally awesome Lloyd Doggett still has his seat.
Moonbeam knows what's what (as per my 773).
Yes that shit happens.
Indeed it does. It boggles my mind the degree to which I've seen The Big Sort take place among my friends. I did my time in the South, bob, and like many, I am deeply grateful to have escaped.
One of my standard retorts to Blue State conservatives is, "You like Mississippi so much, you should go live there."
Hawaii now has a Buddhist Senator and a Hindu Representative.
Lingle fell. Lingle fell.
Lingle lost to Mazie.
That maybe doesn't scan if you know how to pronounce Mazie.
Texas.
I mean, you don't want us moving to California do you?
This explains NM.
There is tribe of Cafornians, a tribe of texans, as well as the peoples who were there before either set of neighbors started moving in.
Or maybe not, I just visited.
Yeah, that sounds about right, actually.
I think somebody should set up the woman from 902 with Orson Scott Card.
945: The Dems should just redistrict whenever they get back in power in a state house. A couple rounds of competitive redistricting between the parties, and we'll switch to a less-bullshit system.
975
945: The Dems should just redistrict whenever they get back in power in a state house. A couple rounds of competitive redistricting between the parties, and we'll switch to a less-bullshit system.
The thing is that would make existing Dem seats less safe which incumbent legislators are generally not enthusiastic about. The 2003 Texas redistricting made DeLay's seat less safe and contributed to the Democrats winning it in 2006.
974: Anything that makes that asshat cry deserves a federal subsidy.
I bet he cries a lot. I bet he's a cryer.
And recognizing the importance of health care to women voters.
Seems pretty likely that once Obamacare is implemented and people get used to it, Republicans will stop attacking the act overall (no more "repeal" nonsense) and will instead pivot to (1) defending the popular parts of the bill with the same fevor they now defend Medicare but (2) attacking every modest attempt towards cost control ("RATIONING! DEATH PANELS!") and (3) working to lower the subsidies for those with lower-incomes ("WELFARE! DEFICITS! WHY ARE YOUR TAX DOLLARS PAYING FOR HEALTHCARE FOR THOSE PEOPLE! OH, HEY, LET'S MAKE THIS A TAX CREDIT INSTEAD OF A SUBSIDY, SO IT'S NOT TECHNICALLY "GOVERNMENT SPENDING" (EVEN THOUGH IT WILL COST THE GOVERNMENT MORE IN LOST REVENUE) AND ALSO SO IT WILL DO MORE TO HELP THE JOB CREATORS AND LESS TO HELP POOR PEOPLE!").
That's clearly a more effective line of attack anyway--support (or at least pretend to support) the popular parts of the bill, attack the more vulnerable parts. They tried to do this rhetorically whenever they talked about "repeal and replace", but it was so transparently bullshit that it was never very convincing. But I think the base was so caught up with the idea of "repeal" that they couldn't pivot away from it. Probably that pressure goes away now.
980 -- I agree with that. First, though, the 2014 midterms will be fought over whether to repeal.
So Florida hasn't even been counted yet and Barack "Compromise" Obama has already given away the farm. Surprise, surfuckingprise.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/177630331.html
Is "giving away the farm" a euphemism for "made a phone call" that I haven't heard before?
If we waited for Florida every time we had an election we'd never give away the farm.
I don't get the tax credit/subsidy thing in 980. Exchange premium subsidies are already supposed to be delivered through the tax code (though flowing directly to insurers). And Republicans prefer deductions, not credits, within the universe of tax expenditures.
984: It would have been totally possible for Obama to say "We need to get America's fiscal policy back on track, and I'm not going to accept obstructionism from the Tea Party representatives in the House." That's how you begin negotiations, not by begging people to compromise before there's even a plan on the table. Greenwald's piece was exactly right. It's 4 more years of a moderate Republican President knuckling under to the far right any time they say "boo!"
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2012/nov/08/1st-court-hearing-allen-wests-demand-recount-thurs/
Remember when wingers said that Al Gore was trying to steal the election when he asked that votes be recounted?
980: Which is why I make a point of crediting the ACA when one of its results comes up.
I honestly can't believe how many people think that insurance companies just decided to expand coverage out of the goodness of their hearts, or something.
People get an e-mail saying that their company's insurance now covers dependents up to age 26, and they act like it's a gift. It's the law, folks!
That's how you begin negotiations, not by begging people to compromise before there's even a plan on the table.
It is?
So Florida hasn't even been counted yet, and already progressives are whining about Obama giving away the farm.
990: most people are terribly ignorant, Witt. And/or, they're very stupid. It's sad but true.
974: is there a Godwin's law analogue for when you accuse your opponents of being Hitler *and* Stalin in the same sentence?
I saved the best of all to push this thread to 1000: Anne Coulter saying all is lost and there is no hope.
Scotty's going for full board coverage in conservative buzzword bingo- Fairness doctrine, Goebbels, Benghazi, Dear Leader, Obama's Katrina, nuking Tel Aviv. He's at least got the X.
994.2: Does this mean that she's ...sincere? She must realize that the Obama victory is best for her business.
996: I believe that despite her routine lying and general dishonest schtick she is fundamentally sincere in her beliefs. AFAICT she's way over on the libertarian end of conservative but plays to the larger audience of more mainstream conservatives because she likes money.
991: Well, obviously not, if you're President Obama
992: Well, yeah, of course, what else should we do? Sit around twiddling our thumbs like people did in 2009 and 2010? Let the far right regroup so that their midterm gains will eclipse even 2010? Maybe it would be best if we just wrote fawning letters to the DLC, telling them they shouldn't bother about us, because they have important work to do? It strikes me as disingenuous bordering on the pathological to spend the run-up to the election issuing these stern imprecations that Progressives Must Support The Democrats, and then figure that we're just going to be silent the rest of the time. What are working class Hispanic people going to get from this administration, come to that? Or prisoners? Or oppressed people in the Middle East? A whole bunch of that same happy horseshit about "we'd love to change, but it's just not politically feasible right now." Seems to me Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. had a couple of things to say about that line of argument.
It may just be my impression, but this is the first election I can remember that has left Republicans depressed and fearful, as opposed to jubilant or angry. I can't tell you how happy this makes me.
The more I read, the more it appears that the dumb fuckers were convinced they were going to win. Of course there's always a certain "we're going to win" mentality that any losing campaign will have, both to keep from demoralizing supporters and to make sure they're going after the things that have potential to bump up their actual 10-20% chance of winning. But this looks like there was some full-on reality denial going on.
1000 to the actual Romney campaign--it appears that the supporters had it double.
998.2 spend time reading eclectic web magazines. As for me, I'm really interested in finding someone to put together a massively data-driven website that would help people target their electoral sports fandom. In other words, I think it would be fascinating if someone with real credibility, someone like Nate Silver*, could put together a national map, totally clickable and reasonably interactive, that would allow people to understand the relative importance of various races at the national, state, and even local level. Something that would allow an LB, who cares a lot about politics but is some combination of too busy and too lazy to learn too much about local level politics in Minnesota, to understand the potential impacts of various races there and thus to know where to spend her money and maybe her time. "Oh, if I support this school board candidate in Edina, and that candidate wins, her victory would represent the tipping point for that body, which would mean [insert something here] huge difference for this mean kids in that district." I mean, this already exists for people who want to know who the best sixth grade basketball player is in the country, so why not for politics?
* Though not Nate Silver, because again, I'm fearful that the cult surrounding his individual genius -- and make no mistake, that's all it is individual genius rather than a byproduct of a methodological reorientation that will have fantastic effects and some really lousy effects as well -- is going to turn out to be pernicious.
many kids not mean kids
But probably both, right, because boys will be boys.
Maybe it would be best if we just wrote fawning letters to the DLC
Presumably they would be returned, marked "Undeliverable - Addressee unknown".
997: I think her core belief is sort of social Darwinism where there are superior people represented by the Republican party and a set of inferior brown people/freeloaders/sexual perverts represented by the Democratic party. Obama's reelection shows that the inferior people have conquered America.
1002: I endorse this plan heartily. Orange post titles! Kickstarter!
946: Hypothesis: the fearsome, data-driven targeting of the Obama campaign made for less down-ticket bleed-over in non-competitive regions, which hurt D chances of taking the house
It's indirect at best, but I would suggest that the count-by-county map of 2008 -> 2012 vote changes* supports that hypothesis. Forgetting the cities, look at the "hole" covering parts of Ohio which is surrounded by a massive wave of rural counties belatedly finding their inner racist. It is just part of the state (the rural western Ohio counties looked a lot like Indiana). Doubly indirect because it is the presidential vote, but interesting nonetheless.
*NY Times map, click on shift from 2008. Also on the map, you can really see the areas in the south where the black vote led to Obama getting higher %s in 2012 than 2008. For instance, Mississippi went slightly more favorably for Obama in 2012 than in 2008.
1004: Or whatever they're calling themselves nowadays.
Seems to me Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. had a couple of things to say about that line of argument.
Yes, this is an appropriate invocation.
Seems to me a bunch of people are arguing that the sky is going to fall, with absolutely nothing to back it up. We used to call that "concern trolling" before this blog became devoted to the practice.
1009: If you were one of the 2.whatever million people in prison, might not the sky have fallen for you? What if you were a member of a Pakistani wedding party? Or a 19 year old deported to a country you can't remember living in? Yes, it's true, for middle-class white people things are going pretty okay. If Romney and the Repugs had carried the day, that would still be true.
All this nonsense about how the Demoncrats have to work so hard to appeal to middle and upper middle class white guys, when that demographic basically never votes for them is just shuck. In fact, the only people like that who do vote D are people like us on this blog. If the Dems could erase the margin of despair, they wouldn't have to worry about currying favor with centrist white guys. But no, that's unthinkable.
I will note that the popular vote margin is now at 2.9M and will almost certainly go over 3M and surpass the margin of Bush/Kerry in 2004. I exhort you to point it out to people frequently and often, since with the speculation that Romney might carry the popular vote plus him being ahead in it when most people stopped watching on Election night, my experience is that folks think it was closer than it was.
Posting this in comment 1011 of a dying thread may not be the best way to get the message out.
1011: Isn't this just sadism? Haven't the Republicans suffered enough?
If the Dems could erase the margin of despair
Now that he won the election, Obama is doing his best to help rich white Republicans overcome their feelings of despair.
Do you think predicting Obama to be weak in a negotiation makes you a progressive? If I were in prison, I'd want to be out of prison. I don't want to be deported anymore than you do, Natilo, and if I were attending a Pakistani wedding right now, I'd probably have a markedly different worldview, as would you.
A lot of middle class white guys did vote for Obama, but I don't see what that has to do with whether one should expect Obama to cave to House Republicans over the next few months. I don't see how expecting Obama to lose a negotiation puts pressure on him to be more progressive, if that's what you're trying to do. I don't think anyone would dispute that Obama could be more liberal. If you actually wanted him to move to the left, the thing to do would be to try to convince the public of the rightness of your lefty positions, so that he would be pressured to support them, rather than trying to convince people that Obama is going to desert them -- with nothing to back that up.
Frankly I suspect that the only progressive thing about you is your tax bracket, but please continue trying to shit on an enormous truck as it speeds by you.
Haven't the Republicans suffered enough?
No.
to convince the public of the rightness of your lefty positions
"I swear! William F. Buckley was completely in favor of card check!"
I don't think it'll work, but it might be worth a shot.
1015: I had a feeling that might be the consensus here.
Haven't the Republicans suffered enough?
Philippians 1:29, suffering is a gift from God. Ho ho ho, bitches!
1016: I got things jumbled up. Should have written "convince the public of the leftness of your righty positions," as I think that tracks more closely to Natilo's intent. And it shouldn't be hard. Those righty positions have been left.
convince the public of the rightness of your lefty positions,
The few people I know who don't pay much attention and so are free to form reality-free opinions, those folks take an attitude that anything printed or broadcast is a self-serving lie. Not crazy, since it's so often true. But reasoning effectively about climate change, or at least not ignoring it, requires a chain of trust. I have no idea how to get from here to there.
Also, the 47% video that Mother Jones publicized was a pretty big deal-- hopefully circulation increase will trigger a virtuous cycle of increased influence and quality.
Risking pwnage, I think this belongs in the erection thread.
By the way, folks may have noticed that the Libertarian candidates won way more than enough in our Senate and Governor races to tip the balance from Republican to Democrat. A Dem friendly group ran a Libertarian ad. Cost them $500k. Rove et al. spent millions.
I'm sure every one of those Libertarian voters believes in their platform. And in their future as a party. In the development of which I wish them the best of luck.
1022: your well wishes and sincere tone are duly noted.
All this nonsense about how the Demoncrats have to work so hard to appeal to middle and upper middle class white guys, when that demographic basically never votes for them is just shuck.
I entirely share you concerns and perspective on this, so I don't really mean for this to come across as mocking, but: prison inmates, people subject to deportation and members of Pakistani wedding parties vote for Obama at considerably lower rates than upper middle class white guys.
1010
All this nonsense about how the Demoncrats have to work so hard to appeal to middle and upper middle class white guys, when that demographic basically never votes for them is just shuck. In fact, the only people like that who do vote D are people like us on this blog. If the Dems could erase the margin of despair, they wouldn't have to worry about currying favor with centrist white guys. But no, that's unthinkable.
Funny how when Republicans have trouble appealing to white women this is the fault of the Republicans but when Democrats have trouble appealing to white men this is the fault of white men.
Funny how when Republicans have trouble appealing to white women this is the fault of the Republicans but when Democrats have trouble appealing to white men this is the fault of white men.
Well, not funny ha-ha.
I think the main problem was with white southern men.
On the other hand, if only whites voted, Romney would have won California and New Jersey.
1025: And when racists vote against Obama, people think it's the fault of the racists! It's crazy!
Sorry, bad link. This is to the NYT exit polls.
1025: It follows pretty simply from the belief that a vote for Democrats is right, and a vote for Republicans is wrong.
1026: actually it's with white southern men over 65. Obama and Romney split the other bits of the white male vote more or less equally (give or take a few percent), and Obama won the white vote in most blue states, but Romney absolutely dominated the Aged Cracker demographic. Saying, as that link does, "Obama did well above average with white men in swing states" is true but misleading because the average is pulled down by the Aged Crackers.