Good times. The "enthusiasm" narrative! The "47%" (one guy's actual prediction of the popular vote total has Romney picking up everything but)! "Clinton out of control"! The schadenfreude from this election will be tasty for many months to come.
Now where did I just read a good numerical discussion of turnout. Oh yeah, ObsWi. Head on over there if you want.
Obama was down 6 million votes from a extraordinarily high 2008. Some numbers (Brett Bellmore shrug) Chew on these, note Obama the only incumbent to lose voters in re-election.
2012:
Obama 61,857, 999
Romney 58,591,534
2008:
Obama 69,499, 428
McCain 59,950,323
2004
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,439
2000
Bush 50,460,110
Gore 51,003,926
1996
Clinton 47,400,125
Dole 39,198,755
1992
Clinton 44,909,806
Bush 39,104,550
1984
Reagan 54,455,472
Mondale 37,577,352
1980
Reagan 43,903,230
Carter 35,480,115
1972
Nixon 47,168,710
McGovern 29,173,222
1968
Nixon 31,783,783
Humphrey 31,271,839
It was a pretty amazing election. Just not as amazing as Republicans expected.
Obama the only incumbent to lose voters in re-election.
Is this the stupidest fucking statistic ever?
People who write post-mortems of turnout before all the votes are counted are the dumbest fucks of all.
People who love reading post-mortems by dumb fucks are the luckiest people of all.
Is this the stupidest fucking statistic ever?
Now you've got me wondering what the stupidest statistic ever is. It probably has something to do with the sun exploding.
The stupidest statistic ever is Tau-a. Nobody, including the guy who invented it, has ever used for for anything but to explain why you should use Tau-b.
Not exactly pundit-related, but is there any way at all in which Chris Whalan's remark about Elizabeth Warren, "She's kind of an angry Calvinist", isn't nonsensical? Total depravity, unconditional election, limited atonement, etc... I'm not seeing it.
I thought y'all would like that chart. It will be history, and 100 hundred years from now people will be staring at those numbers. Of course it don't mean nothing that Obama decreased his vote count, and none of the others did. Obama is special.
I am sure the missing 9 million votes will be found in Maricopa County.
What it does mean is that zombie Garfield or Zach Taylor could have beaten this incompetent loser. But not Romney and these Republicans.
If the Obama team did have a extra-special GOTV effort and performance one shudders to think what would have happened without it.
Taylor actually owned slaves, which would have left a great deal of ground to the left of Romney on race.
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oh my god petraeus-cantor-west point-gmail-pop that shirt off-edwards's lawyer-push up contest-gate
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Oh, maybe you are falling into a trap of "the election is about the electoral college, and if Obama wanted a big raw vote blah blah"
Naw. Clinton didn't make an extraordinary effort in Mississippi in 1996. Not did Bush II put a lot of resources into Manhattan in 2004. An incumbent dead dog picks up votes from party members satisfied and happy with being in power, that is why they are hard to beat.
Republicans are so shocked because Obama was a easily beatable incumbent.
Republican turnout was even or down from 2008. That's really bad news.
Republicans are so shocked because Obama was a easily beatable incumbent.
... for a sane, responsible party that hadn't just gambled away four years on obstruction. They basically gambled that he'd be easily beatable by white butthurt and voter ignorance all on their own. Turns out, not so much.
Anyway, where's your usual "Obama will nuke Iran any day" trolling? You're about due, no?
(Not that "white butthurt" is in short supply or anything, hence those numbers. But you already knew that, bob.)
2: "my dataset proves that based on a list of all elections between 1968 and 2012, but excluding 1976 and 1988, no president other than Obama ever received fewer votes in a reelection bid."
Anyway, where's your usual "Obama will nuke Iran any day" trolling?
He's just trolling in a different way right now. He'll be fine.
Of course it don't mean nothing that Obama decreased his vote count, and none of the others did.
Okay, bob, you win. I'm going to feed the troll: What about Carter and HW Bush? Did they get the same amount of votes the second time around? You ignorant fuck.
Awkward zombie Zachary Taylor is awkward.
19: He specified Obama lost the most votes of those who actually won re-election. It's a stupid statistic, but he's reporting it accurately.
Obama got the least re-election votes of any black president! He also got the least re-election votes of any President that was predicted to down to a crushing defeat by shitty amateur pundits named bob mcmanus! Not to mention he got the absolute least re-election votes of any President named Barack Obama who is materially and conceptually indistinguishable from the Barack Obama who is now President!
Which is to say why are you dopes engaging mcmanus?
More seriously, this is all fun but all "the Republican party is now in decline for a generation"/"the tax revolt is over"/"demographics mean Republicans are now a permanent minority party" I've seen in web commentary is even more dumb than the predictions of these pundits.
27: I was looking back to see the next to meet that standard. It was FDR and he did it twice.
13: Yes.
Later, the agent* became convinced -- incorrectly, officials say -- that the case had stalled. Because of his "worldview," as the official put it, he suspected a politically motivated cover-up to protect President Obama. The agent alerted Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, who called the F.B.I. director, Robert S. Mueller III, on Oct. 31 to tell him of the agent's concerns. [emphasis added]*Shirtless pic-sending agent. Though I think it was "whistle blower" -> Dave Reichert (R-Washington) -> Cantor.
Also, FDR's opponents got progressively goofier looking, so he should have been improving based simply on not looking like a stock character in a B movie. If you don't believe me, look it up.
27: I made a try at a pedantic, non-witty response to 21, but it turns out that a witty, non-pedantic response works better.
Who knew? This could revolutionize my blog commenting.
Don't make me link to sphincter-painting guy.
Once, during a family vacation, Zachary Taylor awkwardly tied a turtle to the roof of his coach-and-four.
Why have I not yet read that the involvement of Mrs. Kelley points to this being a Mossad operation? Have nutball standards fallen so low?
I think the nutballs are worried this is all going to backfire.
Or at least I'm gigglingly excited that it will.
Probably not safe for work after the first few seconds.
I can't wait for the Broadwell and Petraeus emails to get leaked. This case reminds me of the Spitzer affair (although I was much more of a Spitzer fan)...just that sense of 'this doesn't feel quite natural'.
Re the stats in 2, pretty remarkable that Romney pulled fewer votes than McCain. That does feel like a party in decline.
I suspect this FBI dude was attempting to be the L Jean Lewis of his time.
Further on Romney vote in 2: he was the first losing candidate since McGovern in 72 to get fewer votes than the losing candidate in the previous election. Kind of puts a different spin on things.
Except he is likely to end up getting more. See 4.
Not sure when that count is from, but it has Romney behind McCain by almost 1.4 million votes. If it's a recent count, it seems unlikely that there are really 2.5-3 million uncounted votes still out there. Anyway it's something to keep an eye on.
The conspiracy deepens. Holder doctored these photos to extort this FBI guy into behaving like an idiot, and then Holder spoofed Eric Cantor's email address to make it look like the FBI guy was trying to influence the election, and now Holder is discrediting the FBI guy by making the shirtless photos public. This FBI guy is a bigger hero than Lt. William Calley and Gary Aldrich put together. And all because of some dumb broad in the pay of Eric Holder.
49: Latest here has Romney down 900K. It may be close, but between California and states counting provisionals (if they do) should bet there.
So in trying to figure out what a Tau-a was in 9, I wound up with this guy.
I bet he uses those bananas to explain statistical concepts.
Holder? I didn't even email her!
50: We just need Jeff Gerth to come out of retirement and write a fundamentally dishonest story about it in the Times and off we go!
The spreadsheet in 51 indicates that AK, CA, NY, NJ, and AZ all have anomalously low turnouts. CA alone has 3M fewer votes than 2008. NY and NJ may be Sandy related, but it seems likely that the others will catch up at least partway.
The numbers for AK may go up a bit, but from what I hear turnout was in fact a lot lower here than in 2008 for various reasons. The numbers are so small that it wouldn't make much difference to the national totals anyway, of course.
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Facebook uses a programming language called AJAX that taxes servers less.
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I don't know about turnout being disproportionately lower in some places compared to others, but I'd be surprised if turnout isn't still substantially lower overall this year than in 2008 once the counting stops. It might just be me, but it really does seem like there was more general excitement and spectacle in 2008, even as the economy tanked.
58 True, though it's a pretty big percent dropoff.
As of 5p PST Friday, CA SOS listed over 3M additional uncounted ballots.
And if NY and NJ would have had a US average 5% drop in turnout instead of the >15% drop they saw, that would have been another 1M votes.
I linked this in a previous thread; it explains how turnout does indeed seem to have been significantly lower in AK than in 2008 and offers some ideas on why.
Interesting. Maybe you need a top two primary to have fewer uncontested races downballot.
64: That might help, but a lot of those races were uncontested in the primary as well.
Since my definition of "tau" is "What R does when I say method="tau"," for all I know I've used tau-a. Or sent angry emails to Petraeus' competing mistresses. Whatever R does, I trust it.
Seems like these days every thread ends up as a statistics thread. I blame Nate Silver.
When I type "method="tau"" in R, it turns every thread into a statistics thread.
Only when I use "method="silver"."
Statistics: It's like magic, but boring!
In other news, Bulleit is a damn good bourbon.
Somebody entertain me, please. Post a link something entertaining.
Here you go, V-dub. Via McManlyPants on FB.
If you prefer videos, this is pretty funny.
Did I already link to this? I'm sure I did. But regardless, it's such a wonderful essay, and such a wonderful lesson in how to construct an essay, that I should link to it very few days.
Is this your lameass excuse for not following through on your offer to send me the thing about the place? Cuz that is some weak tea, brother.
But also, how did the surgery go?
News you can use in case anything goes terribly wrong during your recovery: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20268044
80: I told you to e-mail me. You didn't. The weak tea is of your own brewing, Sister Kraab.
81: it went. I only got out a few hours ago. It was supposed to take less than an hour. It took more than three and perhaps closer to four. The surgeon thought beforehand that the fix would be relatively simple (albeit not guaranteed to work). It wasn't. Still, I didn't die, and I'm not someone who needs not to limp to make a living. I'm calling it a win and hoping that they give me loads of good painkillers. The guy in the next bed -- sharing a room completely sucks -- is in all kinds of agony. I feel bad for him, but I'm also considering putting him out of his misery by smothering him with his pillow.
Anyway, e-mail me for the thing.
I e-mailed via the the other place, I'll have you know, Mr. Crankypants, but I'll use real e-mail.
For your further entertainment in the ridiculously-cute-if-you're-that-kind-of-person category: http://www.buzzfeed.com/paws/awkward-cat-sleeping-positions
See #11 for a tribute to our own Stanley.
aw, feel better dutch cookie!!! I'm sorry you're sharing a room--I really feel it's one of the things in life it's worth splashing out on if you can get a private room somehow, but I don't know about your insurance situation or whether the hospital fees are beyond exorbitant and headed towards space tourism.
I'm sorry both for you and your cellmate roommate that he is suffering the tortures of the damned. I fear it bodes ill for their pain management but let us hope your doctor/the doctor on call is a reasonable person. persistent, repeated complaints that you are in terrible pain, that you can't bear it, that you've seen and used the pain scale in the doctor's office before and you rate this a 9.5 with 10 being "someone is sawing my arm off with a chainsaw" are the only way to go. tell the nurses you understand this is not their decision and you know that your doctor or the doctor on call needs to authorize serious pain medication. they will appreciate you not yelling at them, a lot, in my experience. say straightforwardly "I am not some drug addict who got surgery so that I could get high." I will be thinking of you! we will weigh yggles down harrison bergeron-style so that the match for the slate gig is more fair.
59 is one of those things that is so wrong that it casts doubt on every other fact I read in the Atlantic. Although, apparently the author is a "a technology analyst at Gartner," which scares me even more.
82: Hope you feel better, whether from drugs or just healing.
63: Interesting to think that even in Alaska, "higher turnout" means "bad for Republicans". With the record 2008 turnout leading to a loss for Ted Stevens and exactly 50.14% of the vote for Don Young.
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A group of neo-Nazis held an anti-immigration rally in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday, but their demonstration was overshadowed by a horde of cheerful clowns. Local media reported that the neo-Nazis were outnumbered by about a five-to-one ratio. The clowns shouted "white flour," while others came with signs reading "wife power."
"The straight up message from us is you look silly," said Lacey Williams of the Latin America Coalition. "We're dressed like clowns and you're the ones that look funny."
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88: It's probably safe to conclude that there were shouts of "Fuck you, clown!" to be heard.
86: c'mon moby, 'whether from drugs, or from drugs and healing,' are clearly the only acceptable outcomes. be sensible. american doctors never let you have any good shit unless they just then wheeled you out'en the OR; let the man live a little.
82.2: Glad to hear you're done with it. I've done the laminectomy thing and didn't enjoy it as much as the brochure said I would. One word of advice: crap as soon as you possibly can after surgery. I let it go too long and my guts absorbed all the water from the poop and I swear to god it was like crapping adobe bricks. Closest I've come to tears of pain since I was a kid, which is really saying something given the conditions leading up to the surgery, as you know all too well. Crap early, crap often.
Maybe you should have had a crap induced.
it was like crapping adobe bricks
Fun! Did you make a surgery pueblo?
Totally agree with 25. The demographic gloating is starting to get a bit much.
It's true that the GOP will eventually be in trouble if they can't get solid majorities in any demographic other than old white men. But even if they don't, they'll still be competitive for some years to come.
Obviously a big part of the appeal is the idea that we don't have to actually do anything because the inexorable march of history will take care of things for us.
25, 95: You people just don't like being happy, do you?
92: I have heard this advice so often in the past 24 hours that I've decided to shit myself RIGHT NOW. Kidding aside, thanks again to one and all for the kind words. Unfortunately, the surgery, in the cold light of day, revealed that I could have a pretty grim future, pain and activity wise. But then again, I'm a middle-aged Jew, so this outcome falls squarely within the "normal" band.
As for pain meds, these motherfuckers will NOT give me Dilaudid, which as Al and perhaps some others here know is the GOOD SHIT. I'm totally unsure what the point of having a butcher hack large chunks out of your spine is if you're not rewarded with synthetic heroin. Any fool knows this is the adult hospitalization equivalent of the lollypop they give to kids at the barbershop.
Finally, the son of my roommate is so incredibly kind to his father that it's fixin to make cry. He (didn't) slept here overnight in a craptacular chair, helped his moaning father like a million times with some pretty grim shit, and generally has been pleasant and totally patient. I've videotaped the entire episode -- fuck you, HIPPA -- so I can begin training my own kids properly in the magic of filial piety.
Bob's amusingly useless statistic reminds me of a similar usage in a recent Economist article (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565955-budget-deal-makes-sense-re-elected-president-his-opponents-his-country-and ) :
"Mr Obama fought an appallingly negative campaign and scraped a victory in both the swing states and the popular vote (which he won by only 2.4%, the lowest ever for a successfully re-elected president)."
Alas, in line with 4, that article seems to be up a bit early: if you look at the numbers on NYTimes (or even Wikipedia, at the oddly specific article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin ), Obama is now at about a 2.7% lead, above Bush II's 2.46%.
I wonder if The Economist, and the pundit class in general, made similar statements eight years ago.
Best wishes for the eventual outcome, in any case. Who knows, you could get lucky.
99: the thing is, I already have gotten lucky. My kids are healthy, my wife is my best friend, and I have a job that I don't hate and that I can do even if I'm not as able-bodied as I used to be. This other stuff might be inconvenient, and if I can't be as active as I'd like to be that will require an adjustment, but none of it, even the worst-case scenario, is going to all that awful. EXCEPT THAT THEY'RE HOARDING THE DILAUDID. FUCKERS WON'T GIVE ME MY LOLLY!
They're saving it as a carrot for PT. They'll put a pill at the end of the hall and make you get it.
That sounded trite. I blame this weak-ass Vicodin that they're giving me.
101 made me get a little misty. There are things far worse than living in pain, though living in pain is no fun either. I'm glad you've got some perspective )though it's fine to lose it as appropriate!) but I hope you get some Dilaudid or whatever too.
105: thanks, Thorn. I've lived with some pain or another since my sophomore year of high school. I've even had a limp before now, though never as pronounced as what my wife has taken to calling the "I-gor".