I don't recall thinking Obama was that big of a long shot. Or at least, I don't recall Clinton feeling like as sure of thing as she does now. Maybe I'm thinking backward without paying attention to John Edwards because I know how that one ends.
I was arguing that America was not too racist for Obama by November or December, but I think I'd barely heard of him this early on.
Fortunately, he got about 10% to 15% of the racists to vote for him and it was enough.
I don't have any support for that figure, but it seems about right.
After the 2004 DNC keynote address, Obama was less of a long shot than Bernie Sanders was, is, or ever will be.
Don't get me wrong, I loves me some Bernie Sanders, and I wish I lived in the universe where he has a genuine shot at the nomination. But the best I can hope for in this universe is that, by being in the race, he forces Hillary to address issues that she would otherwise ignore.
Yeah, I think I'm misremembering when I had and hadn't heard about him. There was a conversation with a local friend who moved away before I finished graduate school in 2006, so I knew who Obama was by then.
My early memories of Obama are tied up with the whole Seven of Nine thing.
I'm sure archivists can provide the links, but I recollect Obama was certainly part of the conversation here at this point in the cycle, i.e. June '07.
The Seven of Nine thing was about his run for the Senate in 2004. 2004 was when he gave the keynote address that introduced him to so many Democrats, before he'd actually been elected to the Senate.
How many times has the Hillary's-being-her-authentic-left-self-again-at-last-for-the-first-time scrolled across the ticker? How hungry for familiar novelty are we thought to be?
Also, Bernie Sanders gives me bitter flashbacks to depressed western New England.
8.2: Also the race that really quantified the crazification factor, since his eventual opponent was Alan Keyes.
My earliest memory of Obama was shortly after 9/11. I was riding on a commuter train through Obama's state senate district, and I spotted reëlection signs for this guy named "Obama." And I thought, "Whoa, what an unfortunate coincidence that his name sounds so much like OBL's. Good luck winning elections now, buddy."
I am Dick Morris.
7: I thought the whole point of the seven of nine thing was that the lawsuit revealed that, contra the Republican senate candidate's desires, she didn't want to be tied up.
8: the earliest I can find is December 2006, ...
http://www.unfogged.com/archives/week_2006_12_10.html#005951
Tied up in front of other people in a private sex club, right?
Obama goes way back in these parts.
Obama thread in 2004 (in the 7 of 9 context):
http://www.unfogged.com/archives/week_2004_06_20.html#002024
Delightful January 2006 Obama post and thread, already discussing possible presidential run:
http://www.unfogged.com/archives/week_2006_01_29.html#004506
http://www.unfogged.com/archives/comments_4506.html
In comments: "Say, then, that he runs in 2008 and crushes Hillary Clinton. Under those circumstances, drinks are on me."
I wasn't here then, but did he give drinks to those who were?
My son was talking last night about how excited he was to have a chance to vote Sanders, even knowing that he wasn't going to win. I looked it up, though, and our primary is in June. Even a symbolic challenge will likely be over by April, so . . .
I went to a fundraiser last night for the Governor: it looks like the Republican challenger is going to be that religious whack job tech zillionaire recently in the national news for telling folks that retirement is unBiblical. I'm hoping that forces align to increase Dem turnout enough to win enough state legislative seats . . .
Clinton staying far away from guns would be a good thing.
I'd say this is decidedly bad news for Ryan's Democratic opponent, Barack Obama. Obama was already up more than 20 points in this race, and now, instead of having crushed the possibly formidable handsome Harvard-educated investment banker who gave up his job to teach in the inner city, Obama's victory will be attributed (partly) to Ryan's scandal.
Hot take!
...religious whack job tech zillionaire recently in the national news for telling folks that retirement is unBiblical.
Isn't that kind of thing heightening the contradictions inherent in the current Republican party. I'd never heard of anybody with a platform that could be exploited so easily to create tension between old people and Biblical literalists.
There's a lot of "what did I say?" in those fucking archives.
A number of us are in those threads under other names than we use here now, which is fine by me.
20 is pretty much correct though, right? I mean, it didn't hurt Obama's career long run, but he is remembered for drawing a lucky pair of opponents in that race as opposed to winning outright.
/slatepitch
22 Right, but (a) this tech zillionaire nutjob* is going to spend a bunch of his own funds and (b) we'll see an avalanche of dark money. And maybe some academics will decide to experiment with our politics by labeling our governor some sort of leftist to see what happens.
* He also believes in young earth creation.
So who is more of a long shot for their party's nomination: Bernie Sanders, or Donald Trump? And which one will have a greater influence in shaping the intra-party policy discussions leading up to the nomination?
You're not actually asking seriously, but Trump is more of a long shot. If something happened to Hillary in January next year, there's a good chance Sanders would end up as the nominee. If all the other Republican candidates were struck by the same lightning bolt, they'd dig someone up rather than nominating Trump.
Is this a hypothetical bolt, or can I donate money towards it?
28 -- I think the Dems would dig someone up as well. Or, maybe more to the point, that O'Malley attracts more of the Clinton staff and beats Sanders by enough in enough primary states to win on delegates.
29: As the unofficial legal representative of the blog, I will step in and advise that no one answer that question.
staff and donors, that should read
Comment 31 should not be taken to indicate that I am an attorney, or that I am pretending to be one.
27: Did anybody see what grade Bernie Sanders got from Mr. Halperin?
30: I think they would also, but I think that if Clinton dropped out, Sanders support would increase while I think that if every other Republican in the race dropped out, Trump's support would not increase appreciably.
No GOP candidate needs to worry about pissing off Trump voters. If Clinton pisses off enough Sanders voters, we could easily have another President Bush.
35 depends on the exact timing with respect to filing deadlines and the like. I agree that Biden could come in late and win the thing, but for the fact that all the people who make stuff work will be too risk averse to sign on with him. Depending on how late it is. But, yes, I think Biden beats O'M.
37 My ideal HRC response to Sanders in debates is 'Bernie I agree with you about that goal. Let's work together to find a practical way to get that done' which will piss off people who want to be pissed off -- including, eg, Halperin -- but shouldn't doom her. The real live question is whether the people she's hiring are going to be able to take positions like that, or whether they'll get obsessed with the need to defeat and humiliate Sanders.
I'm thinking Trump will actually help winnow the Republican field. His crazypants antics will draw a certain amount of media attention for as long as he stays in the race, and his personal financial resources will allow him to do that as long as he wants. That will make it tougher for a lot of the lesser candidates to grab the spotlight, which will probably lead several of them to drop out long before the Iowa caucuses.
39: Plus, the serious candidates will use his self-promoting assholery as an excuse to create rules to limit who can be in the debates. That will make it even harder for lesser candidates to get attention.
My memory was that from the moment he gave that speech in 2004, I thought Obama was the 2012 front runner if Dems lost in 2008. I didn't think he'd run in 2008.
Isn't the race between Bush and Walker, with everyone else playing for media/book deals?
Does Trump still have that much money? Won't he need to quit the race if they threaten to cancel his TV show?
The media are certainly on the hook for Bush, and Walker seems like the top choice for the conservative base, though he's getting what seems like relatively little press. I don't know about Bush's actual support though - his campaign is out there spinning stuff about how really the first few states in the primaries don't matter much and losing there isn't a big deal if you use it to build up your strength later which is our strategy. That's not exactly a strong sign in their confidence at the moment. His best bet I think, and I suspect this is what he's angling for, is to be the new Romney, and just stick around at enough strength to be the only adult available once the various children have flamed out.
I don't think you can count out Rubio. He may be running more to position himself for 2020 than to win, but I don't think he's in it to meet Megan Kelly.
44 The VP pick won't come from the clown car.
Does Trump still have that much money? Won't he need to quit the race if they threaten to cancel his TV show he would otherwise have to properly document his finances?
Rubio has good press, though I wonder if he won't get caught between Bush and Walker. One of them would need to flame out spectacularly for him to catch their voters, at which point he'd be in a strong position.
Then again he is clearly polling in the top three and I think he's the only one whose positive perception outweighs his negative one. I'm not entirely convinced that means much outside of really huge gaps one way or the other, though, (like Christie). At least I see it come up over and over in politics to what looks like no effect whatsoever. More people might hate Clinton than like her, but it looks like more people will also vote for Clinton than against her.
Walker/Bachmann would be a great midwestern-heavy ticket. It could help the GOP pull some of the upper midwest into their hands, even if only as vulnerable swing states.*
Walker does seem to have a relatively stable lead, though, even if it isn't by much. And his appeal is mostly with the real right-wing conservatives which means that when the clown car candidates start to flame out he has a solid chance of picking up more of them than other candidates.
*Haaahahahaha. No not really. Unless you're a GOP strategist reading this in which case absolutely totally and I'm terrified and filled with impotent rage at the idea.
Where do I get my Trump-Winfrey 2016 bumper stickers?
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/06/donald-trump-wants-oprah-winfrey-as-his-running-mate-wed-win-easily/
50 I think it's pretty clear that McCain was sold a bill of goods on that. Bush won't make that mistake; Walker might, if his funders tell him he has to accept someone.
49 I'd say that whichever of Walker or Bush gets beaten by Rubio, the money etc from the defeated guy goes to the other.
The VP pick won't come from the clown car
With the exception of Fiorina, I think that's true. If she plays her cards right and doesn't piss off Bush or Rubio, she's a natural choice for running mate, assuming Clinton is the Democratic candidate.
Is Walker really a plausible front-runner? In your guts, you know he's nuts.
54.3 -- Surely the smart Republican money is on an HRC victory in the general, so why not let the base have their way and have Walker? Then maybe Bush looks really good for 2020, both primary and general.
Looks like Mark Penn is now in need of a job. Maybe he'll sign on with Hillary. In which case, Bernie Sanders could win this thing after all.
54:
Scott Walker leads with 17% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 13% for Marco Rubio, 12% for Ben Carson, [etc.] Small though the lead may be, this is the fourth consecutive national survey we've done where we found Walker out in front.
I don't know how Walker would manage it as a candidate or even when stuck up next to the other people in the primary at a debate. (If nothing else those eyes should be worth a drop of a few percentage points, so the visuals alone would hurt.) But he hasn't even gotten the bump from announcing his candidacy and he's at the top of the pack. Also yes he's clearly both crazy as hell, looks like it, and is about as bought-and-sold as a candidate can get without tattooing the name of his backers on his forehead. But...
55: Scott Walker: A Goldwater for a new century.
Also 55 is right - the best option for the Republicans is to put up a candidate who will satisfy the base for a few more election cycles and, hey, if he wins it wouldn't be more of a fluke than any other candidate they have. And the payout would be impressive.
58: Zackly. I just don't see him as that appealing on a national level, but then, I'm out of touch with flyover country.
I see Walker up close, and understand his support through my family. I'm concerned about his success and his talent for appealing to resentment. It's time he were taken more seriously as the threat he is.
20 is pretty much correct though, right? I mean, it didn't hurt Obama's career long run, but he is remembered for drawing a lucky pair of opponents in that race as opposed to winning outright.
True, I guess that's how the 2004 race is remembered, but the memory ended up barely salient in the actual 2008 primary and general elections, no?
I think Kasich would be a heck of a strong candidate in the general, and be the clear favorite to carry Ohio (in contrast to either Bush or Rubio for Florida). But I don't think Kasich can survive the early stages of the gooberfest. Maybe the money guys try to bring him later as a white knight if the other money guy candidates flame out.
38.2: The real live question is whether the people she's hiring are going to be able to take positions like that, or whether they'll get obsessed with the need to defeat and humiliate Sanders.
Her hires would be idiots if they tried to humiliate Sanders.
On the Bush v. Walker v. Rubio thing, I was kind of fascinated by Reihan Salam's call for Jeb to drop out of the race. Key point:
Bush's most realistic rivals for the affections of somewhat conservatives are Rubio and Walker. That is why Bush intends to destroy Rubio and Walker.
Lest you think I'm making this up, last week, Ed O'Keefe and Robert Costa of the Washington Post reported that the Bush camp is gearing up to launch attacks on various other Republican candidates, including Rubio, a longtime Bush friend and protégé, and Walker. They are the two candidates who are the most plausible beneficiaries of a Bush exit, as both are candidates who manage to straddle the GOP's ideological and cultural divides. ... With Rubio and Walker out of the way, the race would be Bush against various intemperate wackos who will terrify that key bloc of always-sober somewhat conservatives.
And Salam thinks that if Bush wins the primary, he loses against Clinton in the general: so he should drop out. (Why he thinks another of the primary candidates could win against Clinton sort of escaped me.)
65: I think I really will be shocked if she makes that mistake again, though. Um. Right?
I'm vaguely/a little reassured by the extent to which she's running noticeably to the left of where she's presented herself in the past. It might indicate that she won't be hiring the same group of old Clinton DLC staffers, or at least not as many of them in as high up positions. Then again I'm not convinced that knowing who to trust or delegate things to, or admitting to past mistakes in general is one of her strongest points, so...
Didn't she do some running to the left in 2008 too, though? Is this more of a change than then?
I mean, it is kind of primary standard practice, although perhaps not as pronounced historically in the Dem primaries.
Maybe Mark Penn has used the past 8 years to get much better?
69: That's my concern, that she'll hire the same people to peddle a left-leaning message to appeal to Sanders voters until the primary is over. Basically, I wouldn't discount her ability to fuck up, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get Bush III. The memory of 2004 still burns.
Basically, I wouldn't discount her ability to fuck up, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get Bush III. The memory of 2004 still burns.
Yeah. I admit, part of how and why I read positive stories about Hillary is for reassurance that she has actually learned something -- and I think that she has, but that's not guarantee.
Basically, I wouldn't discount her ability to fuck up
Right -- we seriously need a backup plan.
69: It might indicate that she won't be hiring the same group of old Clinton DLC staffers, or at least not as many of them in as high up positions.
Mention of the DLC reminds me that I've read a couple of pieces (at the Washington Monthly) on O'Malley's association with the DLC -- which seems to be part of the reason old-timers who remember that are not terribly optimistic about him.
Also, while I'm serially commenting: I saw a portion of Jeb Bush's 'interview' on, uh, The Tonight Show* last night. It was an utterly softball treatment, which I must say Bush handled quite well: he's a personable guy. There was no political subject matter at all, at least in the portion I saw.
* Jimmy Fallon (I was about to say Kimmel - I haven't really kept track of these late night hosts) is ... not my favorite. A guffawing, ah-shucks, type of fellow, it seems.
Right -- we seriously need a backup plan.
Yes and . . . at this point, the backup plan probably isn't for somebody else to enter the presidential primary. I just don't think there's time for that to be very effective. The backup plan is making sure that the democratic party is strong enough that if Hillary does lose, and a Republican wins (which would be terrible) to hold enough seats in Congress to preserve the filibusterer and have strong candidates who can run in 2020.
But I feel like there's a fairly large disconnect between grass-roots politics and presidential races, these days. The ability of a candidate to attract grass-roots support matters, but the "establishment" has way more power to determine who qualifies as a serious presidential candidate.
Jimmy Fallon
I thought this piece on Fallon nailed it:
He's not funny. He's not a good actor. He's not a good interviewer. And so far, he has yet to have an original idea.
Fallon is the kind of guy that pulls out an acoustic guitar at a party and does a Neil Young impersonation or takes someone's sunglasses and pretends to be Stevie Wonder.
[...]
Fallon has so few ideas on what to ask his guests (even in the most puffy puff-piece interviews) that he resorts to playing parlor games like Beer Pong, Flip Cup and Air Hockey with them.
I think Kasich would be a heck of a strong candidate in the general, and be the clear favorite to carry Ohio
This is true, but really weird, since Kasich is basically an ass-clown Walker-clone.
82: He has a couple of "moderated" positions on the margins that he can point to. A New Maverick for a New Decade!
82: Sort of, but he seriously pissed off the Christian Right, by using the words of Jesus to defend Obamacare subsidies. I think that pretty much proved he was the Devil.
Kasich! He's Slightly Less of a Colossal Dick.
85: Might work in some circles, but the motto of this Republican Party is "The Bigger the Better".
79: The backup plan is making sure that the democratic party is strong enough that if Hillary does lose, and a Republican wins (which would be terrible) to hold enough seats in Congress to preserve the filibusterer and have strong candidates who can run in 2020.
Forgive me if I say that that's a shitty plan. Not to say that it's your fault, NickS.
81 seems to get it about right on Fallon. (Indeed, at the end of the Bush 'interview' he pulled out a cocktail of some sort, a Puerto Rican thing with rum, to share with Bush. Prior to that they personably sparred over the pronunciation of "guacamole.") I haven't watched one of the mainstream late night shows in a long time: maybe they're all like that still.
I wasn't really sure that Fallon and Kimmel were different Jimmys. I mean, I know what each looks like, but if you asked me who has what schtick I'd have no idea which one goes with which act. Kimmel's buddies with Affleck/Damon and often references them, right? Fallon is another failed SNL weekend update host?
Walker scares me because of what he's been able to accomplish in Wisconsin and still get reelected. Like GWB, he seems clownish and too extreme to get elected. But he's on to something.
89 Me too. I'm really afraid that Walker is going to win.
89: and still get reelected
Walker's Koch brothers (et al.) funding and support could still be made into a liability, it seems to me. A great reminder of David Koch's failed Libertarian Party VP run in 1980 was recently posted. The platform is just appalling.
The Democratic Party and/or its surrogates should broadcast this far and wide.
Further to 91: Really, read that platform. That's what the people backing Walker want. {She says in her attempt at a person who sways public opinion.}
91 has quite a laundry list of nutball ideas. Yes, we must eliminate the oppressive Consumer Product Safety Commission. How dare Big Brother prevent the use of lead paint in children's toys, as the Free Market intended!
I heard lead paint makes the toys taste better.
See, I don't think you can use very many action verbs when you talk about US parties. They can't plan, think, encourage, or act. Or anoint or gatekeep. Or whatever. It's all fairly entrepreneurial: Assemble the funds, and you (an individual human being) can do anything you want. Don't assemble either funds or a following (which can translate to funds) you can't do anything. There are people who have funds, or can persuade other people with funds. They act as they wish, and no one can deploy or control them.
Yes, there are strategists who can have their self-interested gripes published in the New York Times. But coming up with a plan B, much less a plan A? Outside the competence of a party. And the idea that there's some sort of party elite that can relegate a legitimate candidate to irrelevance -- I just don't think that's real.
There is power, but it's mostly outside the party structures.
89, 90: we need to maintain the filibuster so that Walker can't become tinpot tyrant of a failed state.
History does rhyme.
Speaking of competence, is one of you going to tell me how far I can hike without hurting myself and needing helicopter rescue? I figure 15 miles a day is reasonable but 20 too much. Does that sound right?
I figure I can double anything that didn't hurt at all last time, and add, idunno, 10% to something that made me pretty tired for a day.
How dangerous will it be if you decide to camp where you are at a fraction of what you're hoping to do?
How many days in a row, Moby? Good path or scrambling over rocks?
A simple majority of the Senate adopts the rules at the beginning of the session. There's no such thing as having a minority blocking position to preserve the filibuster, if the majority is determined to get rid of it.
If Walker wins and Republicans maintain the Senate, it's more than a little likely that the majority will strike it out.
Thems the stakes.
It sort of did hurt last time, but not badly. But it's not dangerous at all to stop on the way. It's against the rules, but I don't suppose anybody would worry overly about that if I were visibly limping or something.
Only two days in a row. A good path that scrambles over lots of rocks. That is, the path is very clear but about 1/4 to 1/3 of it is giant rocks.
97 Depends on elevation, I think. I've imposed a 6 mile limit, when fully laden, because any more than that makes the whole thing too much work. Am I 15 years older then you? Adjust accordingly.
Unladen, I'll hike 10-12 these days (or I will when my ankle is healed) but more than that is a chore.
The Laurel Highlands Trail, which I'm told is similar on a smaller scale.
What is the ground velocity of an unladen Carp?
So, it sounds like 20 miles is too far. Especially since the 20 mile stretches have more climbing.
There's a route of about 16 miles where the camp site is supposedly within walking distance of a bar. I'm not sure how I feel about walking into a bar covered with 16 miles of sweat or bathing in a bucket.
I'm guessing they'd be pretty used to people showing up in that condition.
I have a pretty good idea of what I'm like when I'm sweaty and what it's like to walk into a bar. I suppose the bath in a bucket would be the only new part.
How much weight are you carrying? Are you training, and if so, how many miles are you walking comfortably? 15 miles might be longer than you think.
Probably about 15 pounds without including water. I haven't been training per se. I do walk a great deal and did about that distance with the same weight over a two day period about a month ago.
did about that distance with the same weight over a two day period about a month ago.
This seems like a complete answer. If you did it last month, why would you have trouble this month?
Because aggressive, biting wolves
114: Last month I did that distance over two days, out and back, and now I'm considering going that combined distance each way.
Ah. How long did each day take you, and how wrecked were you afterward? I would say that if half the distance took you less than three hours, and you were okay the rest of the day, you'll be fine. Much over four hours, I wouldn't try to double it without having done something to train for it.
Is it too impractical to acquire a gear-hauling burro for this trip?
Or one of those headless robotic hellhounds you can kick when you're mad.
Baby wipes can help with the sweat.
Not a very experienced hiker, but I'd think more in terms of time than in miles.
It took me under 4 hours to cover 7 miles. On the way back, because I had no coffee with me, I did that without stopping.
I think I will if can take Friday off. Sunday wouldn't be enough time to recover.
Which segment(s)?. Judging from you've posted here I would say 15 would be a pretty good slog for you. And what rules are there: stopping? You missed the Ultra.
And, if you get bored, you can tell yourself the camping-related joke I heard recently:
Q: Why can't you run through a campground?
A: You can only "ran," because it's past tents.
I was thinking of going from 31 to 30 (those are highways, not mile markers).
The only reasons to hike or camp are to keep your wife from saying you never hike or camp, so I'm really not sure what the hell you're doing, Moby.
Also, Jimmy Fallon's job is to have m-fun while making his guests look good, and he's actually really good at it.
Are you suggesting I just pay her to say I never hike or camp?
I don't have a job, so I hadn't considered that possibility.
This seems like the place for a story about what my wife's family is like. We were out with about ten of her relatives for a hike in Colorado, and we had little kids with us, and the skies darkened, and it was clear that one of those big Colorado thunderstorms was building, and I said "I think we should turn around." Either no one heard me or they all chose to be silently embarrassed for the Iranian pansy. As it happens, one of her cousins by marriage is a member of Aquatic Mammal Team Five Plus One and he was along too, and a few minutes later he said "I think we should turn around." And so then, of course...they laughed, because he couldn't possibly be serious. We marched on, got completely soaked and chilled (this was the same trip that we made a midnight drive to an ER because our kid was having trouble breathing, so let's blame that on the cold) but no one died, so to them it was a smashing success.
I'm bringing a tarp, so I have that covered.
If you have a tarp, you have everything covered. Except things bigger than the tarp.
Anyway, if they really almost kill you, the role of you could be played by James Franco.
If you actually die, maybe an actor with talent will the role.
132: Seeking shelter is for the weak!
Do you know the whole length you plan to hike?
15 miles out and back is what I'm thinking.
128: Many, many years I did that as a day hike out and back starting from 31. Came home and fell asleep in the bathtub. The northern part is more interesting near Beam Rocks (I think the trail skirts the bottom--worth a short scramble to the top at some point.) It does make that part very rocky. Get to cross the turnpike bridge (but also part of why southern half is pretty so-so.)
Senator, I knew Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was my friend. And you, Senator, are no Hillary Clinton.
You'd need nearly the whole of a long summer day if you weren't actually running.
142: Young and fit. Day pack only. But yes, a very long day.
139: Sorry, I phrased that badly. Have you hiked all of the segments?
No. I've hiked one other segment of the same trail. I have an elevation map and it doesn't look more hilly than the part I did.
That's not an elevation map, it's a cookbook!
This is two segments of a 70 mile trail.
So, I'm confused, is the dilemma whether to hike at all, or whether to hike to this 16-miles-away bar or what? My considered opinion, based on my time in the woods, is that people worry more than they should about this stuff. ogged's horrific in-law experience aside, mostly the worst that ever happens is that people don't put on enough bug spray.
The trick is to get the topic kind of bug spray. Indoor foggers don't help at all.
148: If I can get away, which I think I can, I was trying to decide how far to go.
Judging by the DC party, outdoor foggers mostly just sit around on the patio furniture, smoking cigarettes.
We marched on, got completely soaked and chilled
With little kids?! I'm all for hiking, but c'mon, that's crazy. That midnight trip to the ER must have topped it off nicely.
How long are you supposed to wait before teaching them that life is pain?
midnight trip to the ER
Through mountain roads!
I knew my internet friends would understand.
But this isn't a story of my in-laws so much as it's a story of my marriage. I have yet to meet the circumstance that would cause my wife to reconsider a plan on the grounds of being a pain in the ass or a physical danger. But it must be said that it's a good corrective to my tendency to think, "But why would I get up right now?"
For her birthday, you can get her a tarp big enough to cover the family (while standing) and light enough to shove in a jacket pocket. Watch the sales.
So 30 miles over two days? I guess if there's a bar halfway, that's reasonable. I may have mentioned before a hike I did with a couple of friends in southeastern Oregon that was later remembered as the Malheur Death March. When we were planning, we did that thing where you hold your thumb and index finger over the scale dealie on the map to estimate the distance, and it looked like about 15 miles. No problem! Then we lost the trail and had to slog through a marsh, and what looked like a steep stretch turned out to be the head of a canyon, so there was some rock climbing, and we ended up staggering back to camp close to midnight. When we went back to the map and measured carefully, it turned out to have been about 30 miles, but the birding was totally worth it.
I won't even look at a fucking bird if it lands right in front of me.
Some men hike thirty miles to look at birds. Other men hike thirty miles and don't even look at the birds.
The kingfisher, which I added to my life list that day, was really cute. The vultures that circled over us in unusually large numbers as we started to slow down in the heat of the afternoon, less so.
David and I that summer cut trails on the Survey,
Classic Canuckistani poem by Earle Birney. Well worth reading if you're into hiking and mountain climbing, and can also stand to read poetry.
Warning: this poem is pretty matter-of-factly shocking, and does not have a happy ending. Mercy killing?
I looked
At last in his eyes. He breathed, "I'd do it for you, Bob."...
...I said that he fell straight to the ice where they found him,
And none but the sun and incurious clouds have lingered
Around the marks of that day on the ledge of the Finger,
That day, the last of my youth, on the last of our mountains.
No one should be hiking in Colorado without rain gear. It's like hiking in Minnesota without bug repellent or in Montana without bear spray.
And here's my dad on the right, up north to cut trails on the Survey.
http://postimg.org/image/bbz5rfvkl/
(And that guy on the left? Welll, I have no idea who that hoser was).
My dad said that he just presented himself to the office of the geological survey, and they hired him -- by telling him to buy several items, including a proper pair of boots and a warm jacket, and then to come back for transport -- and then they shipped up north to Frobisher Bay.
I don't understand why ogged and his family all got soaked. You have Goretex in America. I mean, you invented it. Surely you weren't out in the mountains without waterproof?
ogged's family appears to be completely insane.
Naismith's Rule is a good one to know - one hour for every three miles plus one hour for every 2000 feet climbed.
165: if they are seriously talking about using tarps as wet weather gear then, yes, looks like.
I seriously can't come up with any other explanation.
162: I haven't hiked in Colorado, but I've never experienced storms as sudden and furious as in the Rockies in Montana and BC. One minute you're enjoying a pleasant summer afternoon, the next you're fleeing in terror from high winds and relentless lightning.
IIRC ogged's in-laws are from Alabama or some place like that. Not sure how much this explains, but I'm guessing some.
I'm generally a bit wary about saying "Oh, but surely you have $OBVIOUSLY USEFUL THING in the US" because occasionally it turns out you don't, normally for reasons connected with the Civil War, but I am pretty sure that shouldn't apply to decent waterproof clothing. Which, as I say, you invented (and heartfelt thanks for that).
Outdoor recreation in the US is associated almost exclusively with white people, so it's generally safe to assume that we have the best available equipment for it.
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Talking to '92 and Jimmy Fallon, Is IOZ has written the best review of any film, perhaps ever.
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173: That's great, and I haven't even seen the movie.
Which, as I say, you invented
Surely you kid. Mackintosh made his eponymous garment nearly 200 years ago, and as I learned from James Burke, it led to the invention of the gin & tonic. That's a development on a par with Magna Carta.
174: I wouldn't bother. In terms of recent mainstream releases I can recommend "It Follows" and "Ex Machina". And I'm irritated to have missed MMFR after intentionally not reading the thread about it here.
172: so it IS to do with the Civil War! I knew it!
175: sure, but Goretex is so much better. The unofficial motto of the Army is "Goretex till ENDEX" for good reason.
Echoing 174 (I won't see it now). Point 12 is priceless.
And the idea that there's some sort of party elite that can relegate a legitimate candidate to irrelevance -- I just don't think that's real.
What do you think of the book discussed here?
So judgy! I don't recall if the Floridian/Alabamans were even with us. It was Coloradans and out-of-towners, and included two more ex-military. They know from gear and all that. It was supposed to be a leisurely family outing, and the issue wasn't so much the lack or preparedness as the unwillingness to let the unpreparedness change the plans. So perhaps insane, but not quite in the same way.
It was supposed to be a three hour cruise, but the skipper still had enough gear to survive a storm.
included two more ex-military. They know from gear and all that.
Ah, of course. "All the gear and no idea". Except without the gear.
Colorado has crazy pop-up weather? When I decided to move there, people often warned me about the snow, but this is the first I've heard of sneak-attack thunderstorms.
It has mountains, so yes, it has crazy weather. Where in CO are you going?
And I'm sorry, ajay, but you've revealed yourself to be a big wimp for thinking about comfort and worrying too much about safety. They're right and you're wrong because they're not dead. QED.
185: If wikipedia is to be believed, the city nicknamed "The Springs."
That's either a really obscure nickname or blindingly obvious.
180 If you broaden the definition of "party" wide enough, sure. Is Rupert Murdoch "the Republican party"? The executive suite of the NRA? The top 5 bundlers from Goldman Sachs? Adelson? The Koch Brothers? All of them together? I'd still say no.
Everyone with a checkbook has some power, and people with more checkbooks under their control have more power. Some of that power is over party functionaries, yes, but to call this 'the party has power' is to confuse tail and dog.
I thought GoreTex was for cold weather.
No (immigrant), Yes, Yes, Now they are but weren't 20 years ago.
There should be one more Yes in the middle.
192: OK, this is "let's troll ajay about outdoor survival" isn't it?
Did you join the Air Force?
No, but they seem to have a very impressive-looking chapel.
I'm not sure what definition of "big thunderstorm" you're working with here ajay, but I'm fairly certain that where I live a hiking any real distance in a serious thunderstorm would leave you soaked unless by "GoreTex" you mean something like "Hazmat suit". And I've definitely seen storms where that probably wouldn't help either.
184 -- In my time in CO -- my grandparents retired there, and I visited them at length several times -- you get afternoon thunderstorms more often than not all summer long.
185.2 -- The correct answer is to have the gear along, not having mentioned it, or any concerns, prior to the actual need. Or even then. You just stop, take out your rain gear, and then keep going.
Good GoreTex rain gear is really expensive. I just got a cheap poncho.
Of course, the amount of water that falls from the sky in these things is nothing at all like the amount you see in a DC thunderstorm.
Wordlessly, they all unfurl their leather umbrellas.
Colourless leather umbrellas unfurl wordlessly.
(ColoSpgs gets 16.5" of precip every year -- just a little more than a third of what C'ville gets -- and a third of that falls in July and August.)
Contrast the graphs at the lower right: Msla, Pburgh, CVille, Spgs.
It turns out that kids didn't like eating thread no matter if it was covered in chocolate so they made one with nougat and renamed it.
161: So Classic Canuckstani. Brought back memories of listening to it in public school, must have been a recording of Earl Birney.
(See also Paddle to the Sea and Cosmic Zoom!)
One of my most Canadian moments ever was hearing D/ou/gla/s R/ai/n read it live. That poem had to have been very weird for any kids who used wheelchairs, and their friends. And me, now.
I just figured out what 205 was above. Never mind 206 please.
I've a lot of thoughts on these subjects, but I'm going out and I'll just express one.
I can remember being struck as a kid in Canada, with Paddle to the Sea being read aloud by the teacher to the classroom, how much of it takes place on the American side. Duluth, the Apostles, the whole Southern shores of Lake Michigan. I was struck again by this when reading it to my kids.
So even in Canada as a boy I was given a romantic view of the world I would come to live in, and where I've taken every vacation for thirty years.
I'd like to hear more of those thoughts, idp.
Ok, here's one: The Maple Leaf Forever
Over the weekend, my wife and I were staying at a BnB up the Michigan shore a piece. At breakfast we had a pleasant conversation with a young couple just staying one night.
She was a local girl now working in a Michigan city; he was a young Canadian from Toronto, who'd gone to college—he says University, of course—in both Canada and the US. A cross-boarder romance begun online, how very Unfogged. They've been meeting at this superior BnB in her home town for nights together; when we saw them at breakfast they were in a very good mood.
In our conversation we touched on how much Canada had changed in the 50 years since I've lived there, and how much people in the States misapprehend about it.
I mentioned The Maple Leaf Forever, probably the most common patriotic song of my school days, and how it had been almost completely disappeared. Sure enough, he'd never heard of it. (I remember having the exact conversation here w/ d.a. years ago, which I'm sure is in the archives. She had to look it up and found a youtube of Ann Murray performing it at a Leaf's game, to tumultuous applause.) The young man was intrigued, and was determined to go look it up.
I wonder if that anthem has a kind of twilight life now, serving perhaps as a touchstone for right-wing reaction. I wouldn't be surprised.
I give my highest possible personal recommendation to the vessels linked in 212. They are great. (I don't own one but have used one.)
211: My mother sang it around the house, pointing out that the thistle, shamrock, rose, left out a lot of people, but still singing it. Last month I heard it sung in a play, by someone playing a despairing public servant, at GCTC.
Just thinking about that refrain on the bike this morning:
Lily, thistle, shamrock, rose,
The Maple Leaf Forever!
Covers the french and the large nations of Britain, and I happen to have a little bit of all of them in me. But it leaves out the First Nations (tobacco? corn? beans?), the Ukranians (rye?) the Portuguese (I'm stumped) the Jamaicans and West Indians in general (joke tells itself) the South Asians and the Hong Kong Chinese.
Also, there's the question of the Maple Leaf as national symbol: it's very Ontario-centric. A kid could grow up in Saskatoon or Moose Jaw and never see a maple tree outside a garden.
In the mid-sixties, in the run-up to the Centennial, a lot of people were displaying a popular prototype national flag. It had the 3-maple-leaf twig of the Ontario Ensign, in red, and the side bands of the tricolour were blue. Probably collector's items now, right next to your Ootpik. I happen to think the single-leaf two-colour flag is a better design, but the other was pretty.
Last month I heard it sung in a play, by someone playing a despairing public servant, at GCTC.
Suggests there's something to my surmise. One of the things we talked about was Rob Ford, and the popularity of his take on things. This sort of thing takes particularly liberals from the States by surprise, thinking as they do that Canada is a country whose people are more like them. Au Contraire!
Portuguese (I'm stumped)
Salt cod.
I'm going to stipulate that the next terms in the series should be plants, as are their antecedents.
I'm going to stipulate that the next terms in the series should be plants, as are their antecedents.
Sorry for the double: very slow refreshing just now.
I wonder if there's a belligerent Welsh-Canadian contingent offended by the Maple Leaf Forever. On the one hand, the Welsh are notoriously belligerent, on the other hand they notoriously disbelieve in Canada. So who can tell?
Carp, now I want one of those ultralight inflatables so badly, and I even have a lake in mind for it.
218. The Basques will fight the Portuguese for the symbolic salt cod. Cork oak, or is that too Spanish?