The arc of Trump's candidacy is long, and it bends towards craziness.
One really striking thing about Trump is how little leverage the GOP establishment has over him since he's so rich. The big money people are clearly trying to force him out of the race, but he can just ignore them and do what he wants.
There are many striking things about Trump, of course, but that's one of them.
I desperately want a democrat to win in 2016 but if it has to be a Republican please God let it be Trump. If I can't have the awkward snail like progress of the Democrats towards some vague sort of adequacy at least I'll be entertained.
Also, while I'm invoking deities I don't believe in, I hereby promise to sacrifice to Moloch 7 virgins if Trump runs as a third party candidate.
It's not just that's he's rich; none of the carrots or sticks of the party apparatus (e.g., patronage appointments, support in other races, pork barrel projects) entice or frighten him. Sam Wang had a good thing today about how IRV polling would be helpful to reveal who's likely to pop once they succeed in muzzling Trump.
It's not just that's he's rich; none of the carrots or sticks of the party apparatus (e.g., patronage appointments, support in other races, pork barrel projects) entice or frighten him.
Yeah, good point. What the money gives him, though, is staying power. It's not just that he's not dependent on money from the power brokers to stay in the race, but that he has sufficient means to hang on even in the face of their outright opposition.
I really don't feel a need to talk about Trump. Can't we wait a few months and see if he doesn't implode first? (Although I guess the dynamic is (a) everybody talks about him, (b) he does something stupid while we're paying attention and, only then, (c) he implodes. In which case, talk away.)
I don't see the harm in talking about Trump. It's not like he's actually going to win the nomination, and the longer he's in the race the more problems he creates for the GOP.
The harm is he's a disgusting man who disgusts me.
Yeah, fair enough. I find him pretty disgusting too.
You guys are nuts. He's a Ross Perot for the 21st century! This is going to be great.
No, he's a George Wallace for the 21st century.
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/04/15/poll-donald-trump-leads-2012-gop-field
He's the Trump of the 2016 field.
Wallace actually held elective office. Maybe this will be like Ford v. Newberry.
Also, I agree with Yawnoc. There's still almost six months until the primaries.
Good find Charley. This is becoming a tradition, then?
I really don't feel a need to talk about Trump. Can't we wait a few months and see if he doesn't implode first? ,
This is where I'm at. I mean, it's entertaining and depressing at the same time, but I can't begin to take him seriously as a candidate at this point, and not just because it's Trump. Didn't the Republicans go through like five different 20%+ front-runners before Iowa last time?
4.last: why not skip the middleman?
13: that is a good reason to think he won't be the nominee. However, I still think it's OK to use Trump as an example of a popular leading Republican.
Of course he won't be the nominee. He will probably drop out before the financial disclosure is due. In the meantime, he is exactly the candidate those jackwagons deserve. They have been cultivating and nurturing their racist asshole base for a long time. I hope he scorched-earths his way as long as possible.
He will probably drop out before the financial disclosure is due.
I read he'd filed, but not yet disclosed. Apparently the FEC will release the form in a month.
From the point of view of Trump's potential supporters ("the 27%") attacking McCain doesn't matter, according to polls. McCain is a known RINO after all. The press cares because it sells newspapers, clicks, or whatever. So: entertaining nothingburger.
19, 20: Elie Mystal predicted about a month ago that Trump would drop out in 120 days, whent he real financial disclosures are due. Trump had already made some disclosures at that point, but Mystal described them more as boasts than substantial financial statements that would meet the FEC requirements.
Since that time, Trump has released another statement. But it, too, looks like BS.
6: It's not really spending money for him. He's making money (or expects to make it later on the strength of additional public notice).
23 He fucked that one up big time what with calling Mexicans rapists, doubling down on same, and the consequent fall-out.
19 pretty much reflects my view. He's an ugly joke of a man.
Thing is, he's so oblivious to what people think, so detached from reality, that it is hard to see what could actually get him to drop out of the race. The only scandal that could trip him up is one that actually lands him in jail.
He's a Ross Perot for the 21st century!
I have thought this also. It does not make me feel good about the 21st century.
Thing is, he's so oblivious to what people think, so detached from reality, that it is hard to see what could actually get him to drop out of the race. The only scandal that could trip him up is one that actually lands him in jail.
He's always dropped out before.
19 is right.
The scary part about Trump is watching pundits try desperately to not understand why he's popular. The number of people who predicted that the comment about Mexicans would hurt his popularity among the Republican base was just sad.
As much fun as the freakshow is though I'm not sure it's good overall. If Trump manages to be a major contender down the road then maybe, and if he decides to run as a third party then definitely - that would have a longer term benefit I think by exposing how many people really are Fox-News-Demented. But if he just peaks now and then fades into the background noise like Republican power people are desperately hoping he will then all he does is distract from the equally crazy but more polite politicians that are more likely to win. And since the way you seem him presented in general (inaccurately) is that he's some kind of amusing freakshow but obviously Republicans wouldn't actually pick him as a candidate I doubt he's going to hurt them in general.
Once the polls start showing it's impossible he'll quit, I'm betting. Could be he'll go all the way to the convention, though. I kind of doubt it because there's humiliation in losing that way rather than bowing out and blaming the press.
A big convention fight involving Trump would be a blast, mind you. I can't decide who'd be the best opponent. Not the bland guys like Walker. Maybe a Trump-Christie matchup would be the thing for entertainment value.
I can't see him dropping out before the fall debates. I can't see him staying in for a humiliation in Iowa (where it's ground organization, not inch deep mile wide media driven popularity that makes it happen).
What I wonder is if he ends up inadvertently priming people to go Walker instead of Bush, or Cruz instead of either of them.
The scary part about Trump is watching pundits try desperately to not understand why he's popular.
The unwritten rules of pundithood state that you don't call someone out on bigotry if they are popular. Certainly you don't call 20+% of your audience racist. I think there's the additional factor that if he decides some person or other in the media is an enemy he could make life very hard for them.
I did notice that when the comments about Mexicans came out the media outlets I follow (mostly NPR, some CNN, and BBC America) played them over and over, every time Trump was mentioned you got the little speech he made. I think that was their subtle way of trying to make sure he can't run away from his remarks.
This piece is good and takes all the appropriate shots at Trump, but what I really like about it is the title: The Republican Tell Tale Heart..
23 He fucked that one up big time what with calling Mexicans rapists, doubling down on same, and the consequent fall-out.
The decision to make bigoted and hateful statements is interesting. Obviously it helps as a Republican politician, but it damages his standing as an entertainment personality. The question is, is he still an actual businessman, or is "entertainment personality" his main business at this point?
I can't decide who'd be the best opponent.
Realistically it would be Bush, who would be cast as the straight man in such a situation, Zeppo setting them up for Groucho. If the moderator was on the ball it could be great comedy.
The polling that really stands out to me and highlights the degree to which it is ressentiment that is the heart of the Republican "dream" is the reversal in his favorability among Republicans: from 23-65 in May to 57-40 in June. The polls on who people say they will support in a crowded election field this far out is not that interesting, but that there thing is like a headline out of The Onion.
Obviously it helps as a Republican politician, but it damages his standing as an entertainment personality
Does it, though? I haven't been following this closely - maybe he has lost TV contracts or something as a result of his remarks but I don't think he has. Isn't his whole TV appeal based on him being overbearing and offensive?
He's already lost some Spanish-language TV coverage.
Per usual, Frank Conniff is spot on:
A Republican who is okay with racism, homophobia, and misogyny, but not criticism of McCain, is what they call a moderate.
Maybe a Trump-Christie matchup would be the thing for entertainment value.
This would be amazing. Plus it would be such a turn-off for all the fundie asshats.
40: Right, Trump's lukewarm answers to God questions had him in more trouble with the Iowa base than his McCain stuff which they applauded.
Does it, though? I haven't been following this closely - maybe he has lost TV contracts or something as a result of his remarks but I don't think he has. Isn't his whole TV appeal based on him being overbearing and offensive?
He's lost more TV contracts over the last couple months as an overtly racist presidential candidate than he did in two decades as a vaguely politically incorrect overbearing celebrity. The very existence of his beauty contests was never seen as offensive to Spanish-speaking people before.
This makes me think of a thought experiment. How would Jeremy Clarkson do if he wanted to be leader of the Conservative Party? What about UKIP?
Already at least one prominent conservative leader has come out in support of Trump. It's in exactly the way you'd expect too: the media are lying about him; they're trying to take scalps for the RINOs and the left; they think he's going to be weak and back down but he's being strong and they're left confused and don't know what to do now because of his resolve and manliness; etc.
Does it, though? I haven't been following this closely - maybe he has lost TV contracts or something as a result of his remarks but I don't think he has.
He's lost the Apprentice too (though I'm not sure how the mechanics of that work, ie what he actually owns vs NBC).
This makes me think of a thought experiment. How would Jeremy Clarkson do if he wanted to be leader of the Conservative Party? What about UKIP?
Pretty poorly, probably. At least for the Tories - they have a very gated election process which isn't likely to look kindly on a celebrity chancer. If he ran for parliament first, and paid his dues as a backbencher, maybe. UKIP seems more likely, though, it's such a personality cult around Farage that who knows how anyone who isn't him would fare.
And here's a second one, though I don't know about "leader" as much.
44.last: I remember when it used to be a personality cult around Robert Kilroy Silk...
Heh. Trump gave out Lindsay Graham's cell phone number during a speech today.
I don't know why, but I prefer my bizarre, semi-insane Republican vanity candidates to be black, like Alan Keyes or Herman Cain. But I think with the incident in 47 Trump goes objectively to the top of the list.
Does running for the Republican nomination as a personal marketing campaign predate Palin? Or was she just the first to make it so lucrative?
Pat Robertson did it a few times. Maybe some other televangelists as well.
This situation with Trump makes me think 'self-inflicted' and 'couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people'. After that combination, I have nothing left to think on a topic.
47 is awesome. I wonder if Trump has a list of outrageous things to do with planned out spacing between them designed to keep him in the news as steadily as possible. If it's a long enough list he could make it pretty far in the primaries!
http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895
I'm guessing he has some Phileas Fogg-style bet with someone else rich on how much he can drag things down.
Too bad the Republican convention isn't in Sliver City. NM.
This Salon story connects the rise of Trump to the new media strategies of Nixon. It's somewhat persuasive.