If you give the TIAA-KREF guy your phone number and then don't go meet him, he keeps calling. Give them an email instead.
I gave up on dealing with it and just put everything in the lowest fee index fund, all stocks since we have 30 years until retirement. Even leaving aside the argument that this will perform better than any actively managed fund, there's a mental benefit of just saying fuck it and deciding you're not dealing with it.
Estate planning I consider to be a separate topic I have actively chosen to ignore.
This post is making me feel bad that I haven't "rebalanced" my retirement thing ever. Also, that I missed my last dentist appointment. And that I haven't called my siblings much lately.
For my estate planning, I'm still planning on putting a cob cottage on some small, wooded plot. It probably won't be big enough to count as an "estate," but maybe I'll be able to get a couple or three acres.
I have a strong belief that this is a 'little knowledge is a dangerous thing' area. Learn what you like, but investment strategies inbetween "Put as much money as you can in tax sheltered accounts, invested in the lowest-fee index funds you can find" and "I am actually Warren Buffett" are overwhelmingly likely to lead to sorrow.
There was some study somewhere where the best-performing Fidelity accounts were the ones where the account holder had forgotten they existed.
I assume moat people have seen it, but this is good:
http://www.samefacts.com/2013/04/everything-else/advice-to-alex-m/
Amusingly, a few months after I read that post, my old man sent me a link to some new site who reported on it, except replacing the "support a welfare state" with "support politicians who will give you your own money back in tax cuts" :(
Bogleheads forum is pretty good.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php
Moat people are very well informed.
Warren Buffet's advice to everyone who isn't willing to invest several years getting up to speed and make an ongoing investment of many hours a month managing their portfolio is to buy an S&P 500 index fund and just hold on to it with not fiddling about.
I made the error of following the advice of a financial advisor who said to put everything in relatively aggressive investment products initially and then over time as retirement approaches to move towards safer ones. Then 2007/2008 happened and I watched my retirement savings get cut in half. Also got some highly entertaining letters from the asshole managing the fund who explained that shit happens and it was all not his fault.
The main question I have is should I just lump everything into stocks or put it into one of those target date blah blah diversified funds (whichever one has the lowest fees of course). I'm on team S&P 500 Index for now but am willing to listen to arguments pointing the other way.
The benefit to the target date funds is they will automatically increase bind holdings as you age, and will rebalance between equity/fixed income for you. It comes down to if you want to pay slightly higher fees in exchange for not having to do that yourself.
Plastics
Bottled water, canned goods, and ammunition
15: Should we just send all our money to you c/o The Fund for Revolution?
Is TIAA-KREF the more metal version of TIAA-CREF? Invest with them.
I haven't read the book, but from excerpts and various other stuff she's written, Pound Foolish by Helaine Olen might be on the mark. It seems to be more about the personal finance industry than about specific advice, which seems to be what you're looking for.
10.1 is good. Helaine Olen is collaborating with that guy on an upcoming book.
I haven't read the book, but from excerpts and various other stuff she's written, Pound Foolish by Helaine Olen might be on the mark. It seems to be more about the personal finance industry than about specific advice, which seems to be what you're looking for.
10.1 is good. Helaine Olen is collaborating with that guy on an upcoming book.
16 Revolution? We all know it'll go for dog food and anime.
7, 10, and 12 get it right.
Here's what I do (also TIAA-CREF). I have the Equity Index Fund, International Equity Index Fund, and Bond Index Fund at a ratio of 50/20/30 rebalanced annually. All are "institutional class" and were the lowest fee options in their type (domestic stock, international stock, and bonds). Every 5-10 years I will increase the percentage of bonds to match my age (beginning with going to 40 when I turn 40). I have no logical rational for the 50/20 domenstic/international split.
Shit. The real TIAA probably isn't located in Nigeria.
Shit. The real TIAA probably isn't located in Nigeria.
13: If you're worried about wanting to have some amount in bonds for safety, then just add a bond index fund to your stock index fund. It's called the "two fund lazy portfolio." There's no reason to spend tens of thousands of dollars in fees to pay someone to increase your percentage held in bonds by 5 percent every 5 years.
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios
I'm fucked retirement wise. I'll never be able to retire. And because of previously living abroad, then being a grad student, and then a long term illness I don't even have all my quarters to qualify for SS. I tried to look into paying into it to qualify while I'm now overseas again (and thankfully working full time) but had no luck. I'd like to have this be an extended stay abroad but may have to look for work in the US in a few years just to put in those quarters.
You also gotta remember not to look. This year my investments have not been going to great.
I'd like to understand more of the simple mechanics of how the various instruments work and react to different forces. I'm not planning to manage anything, all my investments are in a Vanguard target fund or a two-fund equivalent where that's not available, but as an example, I can never keep straight in my head enough of the mechanics of bonds to be able to reword and pass along why the Danish system of housing mortgage with matching bonds is such an intriguing system.
I don't use them, but in my 403(b) the target funds ER is 20 basis points and the other funds 10. Even assuming arguendo I had 100k, that would be $100 annually vs doing myself. For some people that could be worth avoiding the hassle of rebalancing annually.
I think Money Magazine (and its publications) are a good source, if you read critically. Unless the inheritance is 10 million or more, in which case talking to someone might be useful (as long as you think critically about their advice, too).
Here's what I've derived:
1) Keep 6+ months of living expenses in cash (more if you're not in a tenured/guaranteed position; 2 years is reasonable).
2) 50/50 allocation of stocks/bonds (you can vary this, but I don't think it's going to make a huge difference). And, yes, index funds with low costs.
OK, and a calculation -- The government G (stock) anc C (bond funds), since 1999, 65% stock, 35% bonds, overall yield over the last 16 years, about 7%. Stocks, 7.5%, Bonds 6.0%. Two big times of loss (2000, when stocks lost 40% and 2008, when they lost 50%). And over the 1999-2011 period, stocks gained 25% of what the bonds did. Stocks are risky.
PS: Those numbers are for the funds available to federal government employees for retirement
Stocks are risky in the short term, but less so in the long term. Volatility isn't risky with sufficient time due to mean reversion. Whereas inflation\disinflation cycles are quite long and make bonds risky in the long term.
"When you ain't got nothing you got nothing to lose"
The only risk-free investment strategy.
I knew about the index card but some of it is ambiguous. I max 401k (and does that count towards the "save 20%"?) but it is impossible for most people to max 529s ($14k/year/kid). So then the question is how much to put in 529- enough to meet the save 20% guideline? But maxing might be more than 20%. And if you do manage to save 14k/year you're going to have way too much for college if you started when kid was young, which would be a nice problem to have.
I'm on team keep it simple. Vanguard has a nice suite of low-fee date-target and "lifestyle" funds that can accomplish most or all of your asset mixing for you. We've got a target fund for the 401k, a growth fund for the kids' 529s and a municipal bond fund for what's left over (the last was a hot tip I got from a FA).
"A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is a super readable and interesting book about investing:
Put it all in a low index stock fund anyway but the book is still worth reading
Back to the OP -- you work in a college, and presumably get to take classes if you feel like it. Is there a Finance major or anything like that? Any sort of "Investing 101" you could sign up for? I don't know that there's much practical point to it for all the reasons in the thread, but that'd get you more indepth information than undirected reading.
I bought a bunch of individual stocks basically to see what would happen. Individual stocks are super volatile. In particular, I bought weight watchers stock at $33 only to see it plummet to $5. Oprah just invested and it is back up to $15. Go Oprah.
Most of my individual stock purchases have been good (which I attribute more to luck than skill), with one glaring exception: when my employer was bought out by a large company four years ago I bought some stock to feel tied to the larger corporation. It's lost about 85% of its value, including a 33% drop yesterday.
My mother, whose finances I am completely uninvolved in, in terms of knowing anything detailed at all about them, claims to do very nicely for herself trading individual stocks. I find this terrifying.
William Bernstein's books are very good for just the purpose you describe. Also James Montier, especially for the behavioural dangers of getting interested in this stuff (he is also on the GMO - Grantham something something - website, which is very interesting, though maybe more than you want). And John Bogle for basic practical advice which you probably don't need. Abnormal Returns is a useful mess-o-links site.
One problem I have with the conventional wisdom folks (including IIRC those I've just listed) is the universal assumption that bonds just are inherently 'safer' than stocks. Interest rates have been so anomalously low for so long, and the bond market has done such odd and poorly-predicted things in response, I'd say it was anybody's guess how bonds are going to do in anything but the very longest of long ('we are all dead' etc.) runs, and that a whacking great crash is a serious possibility. I feel (almost) as diversified and much less frightened invested in a super-diversified, international bunch of stocks/indexes/REITs etc., and no bonds. But then 'only do what suits your own risk tolerance' is almost the important rule of all -- if you don't, you're sure to chop and change at the worst moment.
Just never be the sibling with an extra bedroom.
You could find an exchange student or something.
39: If your goal is to slim down your portfolio a bit, Weight Watchers is a great investment.
The mark of a good investment book is that though the author is obviously obsessed with and genuinely learned about the subject, and starts to make it seem like a fascinating intellectual pastime, the end message is always a well-intentioned, 'Turn back! Don't get interested in this stuff or you'll lose your shirt! Just settle down with a nice index fund!'
The mark of a good investment book is that though the author is obviously obsessed with and genuinely learned about the subject, and starts to make it seem like a fascinating intellectual pastime, the end message is always a well-intentioned, 'Turn back! Don't get interested in this stuff or you'll lose your shirt! Just settle down with a nice index fund!'
I do the low-fee index fund thing too, mostly, but I always suspect that the stock market as a whole is bullshit for individual investors and that everything should be in tax advantaged real estate swaps or oil and gas limited partnerships or whatever.
BUT I know enough to know that 49 is how doctors think, which is why doctors are always either perpetrators or victims of investment fraud, and create work for people like me.
Seriously, "I have this special magical moneymaking machine that beats the system and only select smart people can know about, and I'll let you in for $500,000" is like catnip for doctors.
It would be really fun to do that and have the secret be chiropractor school.
I mean, the index funds also tanked during the crash, didn't they? I'm sure whatever stupid fund I had my $1500 in at that point did worse than the S&P 500, but my impression was that the "smart" investors did lose a lot of money too.
I'm basically allergic to money. I don't know how I'm going to endure being part of the middle class (let alone upper middle class, which I think I still can't possibly be at this point and never have been) long enough for my daughter to become independent. However, I am one of the people who did successfully change their life with the strategy in Your Money or Your Life, back in 2004, long enough to save $3000 while making about $15K a year and move to California. But sticking with it in the Bay Area was a dead letter.
Cash flow, income, is important to me (up to the constantly shifting point of personal independence), but the cash needs to flow out again. If it pools in liquid accounts I get vertigo. I need to trick myself into being more tolerant of saving somehow. Okay, irrelevant confession concluded. I am not sure what the current feeling about social investing is -- did it peak or is it still attractive to slacktivist Millennials?
Yes, the index funds crashed, but if you completely ignored it it's almost back to where it was.
I have had a theory about investing which I will now share with you for the low price of $0- people who are paid monthly and have 401k automatic investments must have all that money go in roughly the same time each month. So wouldn't prices be inflated at that time of month, which means you should do whatever you're supposed to do when you know prices are going to be higher than they should be?
I bought a couple books based on this thread. If that $30 pays off, I'll be a millionaire! Thanks, all.
55: If you were really paying attention to what people had written, you'd have used the money to pay a hypnotist to help you to forget all about it.
53 - there are some short-long stock funds (they use short selling to hedge against risks) that lost nearly nothing in the crash, but they only make like a third of the return a regular fund does during good times. So if you figure the market's about to crash again, it could be a good time to move in on one of them. Except that the most likely outcome is that in a year when the crash hasn't happened yet, you'll be all like "holy crap this shitty investment is barely beating inflation let's get back into the regular old index fund and let it ride." and then whango! Crash!
Re: "I have this special magical moneymaking machine that beats the system and only select smart people can know about, and I'll let you in for $500,000" is like catnip for doctors.
If you think of these less as investments, and more as very expensive personal flattery stage productions for people who like to be told they are clever in areas outside their expertise, they make a lot more sense.
54: Maybe, but does the fund necessarily have to buy stuff on the open market in a highly timed way to make the contributions worth something? Maybe they have the ability to spread buys out over the month, or maybe they don't need to buy that much due to the offset of other people changing jobs or retiring.
The reason stocks have good long-term returns is because of the volatility. When the market crashed the dividend yield goes way up and you can buy new shares very cheaply.
Actually bond returns an be predicted with an r2 of like .9 just based on their current yield. At least for shorter time periods, like 5 to 10 years.
59- At least in the case of an index fund, I'd assume so- if the shares of the index fund appear in your account within a couple days after your 401k payroll deduction, don't they have to buy the shares comprising the fund or risk being stuck with less cash than the shares are worth if the market goes up?
No one knows why stocks have good long-term returns. It's the equity premium puzzle. Bonds do suck ass, though.
So if you figure the market's about to crash again, it could be a good time to move in on one of them.
The thought has occurred to me lately. Should I wish for it to hit before or after my employer's IPO? I've been hoping for "before," but I'm not sure that's actually right. (And I haven't given it a whole lot of thought; less thought than the more pressing question of whether I expect to stay through the planned-but-not-scheduled IPO.)
"Random Walk Down Wall Street" overstates the case for stock prices being random (the existence of predictable components in stock prices is well-established at this point), but it's better than the fantasy most other investment books peddle.
62:"Equity premium is a puzzle"is probably not reassuring after 250 years of mainstream economics, and even more interesting that it is openly admitted.
Might try Nitzan Bichler, Capital as Power. Their influences are Marx, Veblen, Mumford, Kalecki.
Other than not being able to explain economic growth, economic devlopment, and the stock market, economics has done awesome.
The rich are richer than ever, right?
WE DID OUR JOB!
I'd echo the index fund advice, liked Random Walk as a starting point for reading.
I have three investing questions myself, would be curious if others have ideas.
1) Disintermediating lenders, eg LendingClub.com: regulatory problems with these or are they a sane place to park money? I can expand if the question doesn't make sense as written.
2) Request for confirmation: International balance is great, but basically everywhere in the world ex-US is now in recession/depression in dollar terms, so acting to shift out of US-centered investments right now is a bad idea for an individual.
3) WTF is up with inflation protected bond funds? Returns suck, and while the magnitude of the jumps is pretty small, the value of these things jumps as idiotically as stocks do-- 4% oscillations in 2 months for bonds?
Two of Buffett's essays are worth reading, Buffett on the stock market in 1999 and How inflation swindles the equity investor. Those are good and short reads.
66: Don't be dissing economists. I sometimes diss "mainstream economists" but still love 'em, all of them.
Mainstream Economics attempts to maximize social well-being and freedom while minimizing social disruption and disorder, an admirable goal that necessarily involves a great degree of complicity and support of existing institutions and power structures. In this, it works alongside and overlaps liberalism. Both start from the assumption that barricades and guillotines are no longer required, and should not be discussed, and conditions that might make them necessary should be obfuscated.
This is a complicated and fragile project, scare the Sauds and Koches, really scare them, and they can buy fucking armies. It happened 1870 to 1950, and it did not go well.
My own indifference to the social disruption and disorder stuff is a calculated amorality and misanthropy, a vice tolerable only in its irrelevancy, and intended to disillusion most of the audience as to which side of the barricades they would stand.
Efficientfrontierdotcom is a good site, it's heavy on math for people who are good at that sort of thing.
Request for confirmation: International balance is great, but basically everywhere in the world ex-US is now in recession/depression in dollar terms, so acting to shift out of US-centered investments right now is a bad idea for an individual.
Disagree...ex-us markets are cheap right now. Valuations are much lower. Buy stocks when they are cheap.
This seems craptastical: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11949701/AEP-Eurozone-crosses-Rubicon-as-Portugals-anti-euro-Left-banned-from-power.html
How us this not extremely bad news?
That said, it is better to write out and follow a plan for your investments, eg: 20% international developed world equities, 10% emerging markets, will rebalance annually on Nov 1.
Is there a reason for Nov 1? Post-sugar rush? All Saints Day?
Reminds me of the hot-take on Vox that constitutional monarchies are better than parliamentary republics since hereditary monarchs know that fiddling with stuff like this could end the good times, while appointed or elected figurehead presidents feel somewhat more legitimate and thus are willing to go against the majority as expressed through parliament.
78 -- you get rid of your Braganzas, you get what you deserve.
Well. Maybe the rich fucks really do have it all under control, now and forever. Good for equities!
Back to the OP, serious this time, really...bottled water, nah.
My sane guy is Keynes, and Keynes in his times said you couldn't predict jacksquat. It is the job of economists and liberals to tell you otherwise because long-term predictability is what makes society work but they lie. History can be a guide. People who theoretically bought a Dow index in 1925 got their money back in the sixties.
So, what will the world look like in thirty years, and especially these next thirty years? Some range between like now only better (solar!) and dogs in the street. But I am betting (well, not me, I'm betting on being gone) on enough change that more secure stores of value than stocks or bonds are worth examining.
The rich fucks have always expected us serfs to rise up. and never felt so secure. They feel pretty good right now, see top of post. The only multi-millionaire I know was not secure, as in armed at all times the racist fuck, and was wrong about events in his lifetime, but invested in the famous havens.
Land and art. Lot of work to make money, but fairly safe.
To the OP, I can get you a good deal on some Series 7 and Series 66 study materials! Only used once!
So, retirement savings, huh?
If things go well over the next week, I can pay property taxes this year.
54: people who are paid monthly and have 401k automatic investments must have all that money go in roughly the same time each month. So wouldn't prices be inflated at that time of month,
Yes, but: Individual investors' 401K contributions to index funds are not a very significant part of the overall flow of money in equity markets. There are big institutional investors, the Wall Street firms' own traders, governments, individual rich people, etc. Plus, you've got plenty of people liquidating their index funds, both regularly and at random times. I suppose there's probably some kind of sub-second trading arbitrage to be done around the 401k contributions, but I don't think individual investors would ever be able to take advantage of it.
I can get you a good deal on some Series 7
Whoever gets in from the AL, I doubt it goes 7.
Mid-middle and lower UMC people should really, IMO, think and do more about estate planning. Not that it helps much if your kids are inveterate spendthrifts, but the overwhelming majority of anger in my work is generated by poorly planned estate settlements, divorces and old people getting bad advice from sketchy brokers. Take the time NOW to:
1. Figure out what you'd like your estate to look like.
2. Talk to your spouse & other heirs or potential heirs about your wishes and expectations, and at least a general outline of what you own and why you own it.
3. Shop around for advice from someone who can actually listen to you.
4. Keep your planning up to date.
Also, caveat emptor/no such thing as a free lunch: We're not in business for our health, you get what you pay for. Anybody who advertises about how low their fees are is probably going to screw you on fees by the end of your relationship with them. We've been doing this for awhile now, and we've already forgotten way more tricks with money that you'll ever learn.
||
I just finished the most productive 2 days of work I've had in a month, and I'm caught up on all but one project, but I feel like shit. We had a neighborhood meeting today about the park thing, and it left me feeling grim, and then I just saw the news that some cyclist in her 20s was killed between 2 cars near Pitt, and I feel utterly awful. And Mexico is about to get crushed. I haven't felt this shitty in a long time.
Dammit.
|>
I figured as much on the cyclist. They had moved the people, but that was all still there when I was trying to get home. Ugh.
Impaled on her own bike, they say. Jesus.
87-89: Oh, god. I figured it had to be bad when I left work an hour ago and they were still rerouting buses down Fifth.
There's no reason a crash should happen there. This city needs to step it up, culturally, on bike safety.
Not that a crash should happen anywhere, but you know what I mean.
One report said a driver suffered a medical event prior to the collision.
Feel like mentioning that a close relative of mine got caught up with a schemer who purported to teach him to day-trade by predicting/arbitraging the timing of big players' trades, and it literally ruined his life.
Or maybe I misread that. The PG is saying the medical event was after the crash.
I had a moderately close one this morning. I've become good at managing skidding. A car pulled out of a side street after I passed, sped up and passed me, and as it passed I saw driver was texting with two hands on the phone and steering with her elbows. I assumed nothing good would come of that, and at the next street after she passed me she took a right directly in front of me, causing some skidding but I had already slowed down assuming general assholishness.
I've been thinking of getting a bike for commuting--I can think of a route that'll get me from home to downtown with only a few blocks on roads and the rest on trails. But I dunno. I've barely ridden since childhood and it just doesn't seem worth the risk. Hats off to SP and JRoth and other riders, though.
I've barely ridden since childhood
Surely your risk assessment has gotten better since then.
Yes, assuming sobriety, but not my reflexes or my balance and I'm in no way in shape.
And Mexico is about to get crushed.
Do you think maybe it's all of our faults? That if, in 2000, we had gone to Theresa LePore and told her to use a different ballot (or whatever, did something more) Gore would be elected, the climate would be calmer, and the world would be happier and safer?
Not all, and not necessarily by the path you specify, but it is our fault.
That's what I thought. Sorry, everyone.
The crash sounds really criminal now that the PG has a brief description. She was stationary and hit by a car that was hit by another car and pushed into a third car. Moving fast enough to cause all that at that corner (right in front of the Cathedral of Learning, for those of you with a bit of local knowledge) at that time of day sounds well beyond the usual shitty driving.
(On the time, the PG says the accident was shortly before 5:30, but it had to have been closer to 5:00. I checked my phone log and I called home at 5:14. The police were already there in force and the cyclist had been carried away.)
If it wasn't for the guy who was arrested for allegedly having sex with his girlfriend's dog, the local news would be impossibly depressing to read.
With any luck at all, he'll go to court and claim that the dog came on to him and try to prove it with ventriloquism.
When the coming-from-the-east traffic has a green light, does the going east (straight) traffic also get a green? Then the driver could have been in a going straight lane, going (much too) fast because traffic was moving, then realized they had to shift. If that's not the case, I can't make any sense of it. Ugh. She was doing everything right--taking her lane, stopping at traffic, and it didn't matter. I also feel awful for the drivers in the cars that crushed her; they're not to blame but they'll probably feel guilty about it forever.
There's a vigil at 5 tomorrow in front of the museums; I'm going to go.
104: I'm surprised that got a $500k bail. Is that normal for animal cruelty? I mean, if so good for us modulo our how hypocritical our society is about the treatment of animals.
At least 75% of the men I know have had sex with their girlfriend's dog.
107: At rush hour, the going east (straight) traffic isn't moving that fast. It backs up from Craig to that corner.
110: Oh. Yeah, this was just after five. Then what the hell, that does seem beyond negligent.
109: I hear the national average is 40%.
I'm guessing a turn from whatever that street is that runs past the Phipps and then the Carnegie Library. Taking a right at speed across four lanes to beat traffic to get to the far left on Forbes seems like a common enough maneuver.
Maybe the dog lover is considered a flight risk because he's a wealthy international socialite.
Two thoughts:
(1) as others have pointed out, unless you -are- Warren Buffet, go for the low-information choice: low-fee index funds.
(2) [but nevertheless] the biggest thing you can do (and maybe you're already doing it) is to increase the amount you're saving. Have you seen http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ ? I'm not signing up to the triumphalist vibe in his posts, but .... well, he's got a point about a lot of his ideas, which all revolve around spending less.
OK. So for sure, I think you should -avoid- trying to take some finance classes, and think that that'll make you more educated. There's a reason for the disclaimer "don't try this at home". The stuff they teach you in MBA finance classes is great, IF YOU WORK AT GOLDMAN. I don't know about all these books on personal finance, but seriously, it seems to me, from what I've read, you get into some equity-heavy index funds, and learn how to spend less. Then, N years down the road, you have to rebalance, b/c you're getting old, or your kids' college, or whatever.
But geez, like somebody else pointed out: the best-performing portfolios were those whose owners had lost track of 'em.
Says something, don't it?
I put about $3K ($18K today) into TIAA-CREF when I was teaching at Brown 67-73. I then went off to Europe and forgot about it, and they lost track of me. I've ignored it ever since.
That account now contains $360K. "Ignoring it" seems to be a pretty good strategy.
Well, I mean, we can't all just jet off to Europe for forty years.
Has anybody read a Suze Orman book? She's totally grating and her core demographic is screw-ups with too many credit cards but her advice seems generally sound. (It's mostly: "Don't be stupid. Seriously.")
These days you can reach Europe much faster.
I dunno, I think they had the Concorde back then.
then maybe I should read her lame book, because I'm stupid about money. my dad shuts down any allusions to estate planning when meeting with the bankers, on the grounds that HE had to pay taxes when he inherited money and why should anyone else get a free ride. that was still in the days of 55% marginal rates, I guess. it clearly pains them, and they obviously have some scheme all arranged. he does support paying more taxes, generally, to fund the social welfare programs he favours. that's legit.
I'm sad I never got to fly on the Concorde. my friend says the sky became blue-black as it approached the upper atmosphere.
You should lobby the Narnian government to fund a new a new Concorde. It might even make sense there.
117:Declining Labor Share of National Income 1950-2015, Dylan Matthews at Vox, Jan 8 2015
The park-and-forget easy ride for capital growth was historically contingent and socially determined, and we all know most of that story. You can check Piketty, for instance, to see how unusual that era was and whether he thinks it will continue. IIRC, Piketty doubts that the level of growth can continue, even assuming no disruptive changes. You can also check Summers and Delong on stagnation.
I don't know, and I do expect domination by capital for the foreseeable future, but I very seriously doubt that the Western economies can manage that kind of credit-driven asset-inflation for the next forty years.
I figure we'll just go right to space elevator. need a stable country at the equator? narnia is here for you.
124: it does that even in a normal airliner, just you normally can't look up at the zenith...
The only stock I've picked that's really worked out is STZ.
I mostly fly to Omaha and back. There's probably not enough time to get to supersonic speed.
In the early to late 90s I had a great string of really good luck in making stock picks and had some money to play with. They were mostly tech and internet related before the bubble burst. I also got out of almost all of them in time. I wish circumstances had been different and that I had been able to hold on to AAPL which I had started buying in '95 and really bought heavily in '97 but had to get out before it really took off due to divorce and other life shit. Now I feel like I know nothing about it and if I had the money I'd just park it in a low fee index fun as per most of the advice in this thread.
All my money is invested in Pokemon cards.
126. Airbus have filed patents for a post-Concorde, but with only 20 passengers it's clearly intended for the 0.1% and the rest of us can stay in cattle class.
Several American firms too, but they're all business jets or business class only.
134: The 0.1% as opposed to the 1.0%? Considering tickets on the old Concorde were like $10,000.
Certainly the 0.1%, if not the 0.01%. On Concorde, companies would spring for tickets for execs who could convince them that they needed to be in New York/Paris in two hours. These beasts will be bought entirely by corporations, billionaires and rental outfits - if anybody. I don't want to sound like Thomas Watson Jr., but how many takers will there be for a fast Learjet at the square of the price of a standard one?
It saves money in the long run.
Concorde did a lot of charter work - when it crashed it had a cargo of German cruise passengers IIRC. So ownership, no, but use was quite widespread. Not just CEO and film star types.
But Concorde had 6 times the payload of these things. Completely different market.
// Bleg: can anyone convert a Danish foot from the early 18th century into metric? />
Shouldn't we really be asking: where's the rest of this Dane whose foot you found?
141. fod - foot, about 313.85 mm (12.356 inches) in most recent usage. Defined as a Rheinfuss 314.07 mm (12.365 inches) from 1683, before that 314.1 mm (12.366 in) with variations. Wikipedia, FWIW.
Kiddie soccer is boring but not more boring than Lord Jim.
OT: How long do smoke detectors make the low battery sound? I don't have any way to reach the ceiling* to change mine and it's been beeping for almost 10 hours.** I'm not sure if I should go out and buy a ladder or wait out having maintenance deal with it, which probably won't be tonight.
*I don't see the appeal of high ceilings. I also have lights I can't reach.
**I haven't been home all that time.
Don't hit it with a bat. There's radioactive shit in there.
Surely, there's an array of objects that can be stacked upon one another in a rickety fashion, so as to reach the chirping beast.
Apparently, the Barney theme song is on the juke box in bars.
If this is the anything goes hour: I saw fancily costumed people racing coffins down the main street of town today. Because why not.
A very serious looking Jewish guy (skull cap, no Hasidic stuff) just stepped in, looked around at everybody, and then left.
Barney's agent or trying to make sure his kid isn't here.
You should have challenged him to a coffin race.
If he has represented Barney, he can't fear death.
150: It's so annoying when you're a hitman and you just can't find your guy.
This guy was a little fat for that.
It's a common, demeaning, and honestly dangerous stereotype that fat people can't be hitmen.
I guess, but isn't blending in the goal? He's the only guy I've ever seen in here dressed in Going to Synagogue Clothes.
I guess I'm surprised that doesn't happen more often on Saturday nights. Then again you're at just about the only place in the neighborhood north of the parkway that's closer to a church than a synagogue.
It's a tough church. Fred Rogers went there and I heard he killed a man with only a puppet and a cardigan.
Turns out maintenance people* were already here cleaning the gutters and trimming trees behind the building so they just changed the battery.
*Actually, the landlord and the proprety manager. It's a small operation.
That's what Rogers said about Operation Linebacker.
160 You lucked out, in my experience they can go for days like that.
Anyway, back home after the mini-meet-up.
I ended up meeting Moby at Mobybar. Violating the sanctity of off-blog communication, Moby is extremely good at talking to other people and simultaneously loading Unfogged on his phone. It's a continuous flicking motion, had to be seen to be believed. And I enjoy getting very drunk and having philosophical conversations with strangers. I suppose I knew that already.
Whoa. How long has yoyo been back?
He's been in and out for a while, but around more frequently for the last week or so.
Hey dalriata, did you finish The Dark Forest? I finally did yesterday and enjoyed it but would also enjoy spoilery conversation if you're up for email. I mean, probably right now you're not, given the recent Mobybar experience.
shocking reveals in violations of off-blog sanctity!
also, hi yoyo! I had noticed for the first time just now as well.
Whoa. How long has yoyo been back?
He's been in and out for a while,
Up and down. Sometimes spinning for a while at the bottom or doing tricks.
He's been in and out for a while, ...
This is the yo-yo nature, no?
Apparently I haven't figured out how to capitalize this pseud yet.
141 If you feel uncomfortable relying on wikipedia Jan Smits, the chief map librarian for the Koninklijke Bibliotheek at the Hague used to have a good site for that sort of thing, albeit it's geared to people working with historic maps and the like so mostly larger measurements. Unfortunately it's no longer available so:
IIRC do a find for "danm" for references to historic Danish measurements (I'd tell you what they are but stupidly the site is blocked from my home ISP, maybe they suspect archived Dutch or Danish foot fetish porn or something).
||
This language, and especially translations, no the language is driving me nuts the more I learn. Edward Fowler, The Rhetoric of Confession about the shishosetsu I-novel. Not his words
"I regard the shishosetsu as the ultimate form of pure literature. It is surely the purest and the most candid of prose forms. In a conventional, objective novel [kyakkan shosetsu ], fiction [uso ] inevitably creeps in; it simply cannot be written otherwise."
"The shosetsu of Shiga Naoya contain no false notes [uso , literally, "lies"]"
What, liberal translations? Whatever. I encounter this shit every night, and when I say I find common Japanese repetitive and ritualistic, the limited vocabulary (genki;suki) used in a multiplicity of situations is part of what I mean. Thing is, I am not sure what the Japanese hear/read with the kanji character "uso" (always "lie"?) and asking them will in a way immediately contextualize the character in ways that may not be there originally.
It isn't to me "the word has multiple meanings depending on context" as much as "the word/meaning is used in multiple contexts" and I think this provides a kind of ritual stability. Something.
|>
FWIW sho = small, little and setsu = rumour, gossip. They do have a lot of words and a habit/skill and willingness to add/create new ones.
This is, I don't think, anything like "chair = head of meeting" and "chair = something to sit upon"
Hold up a book in hand and say "uso" they will hear "fiction" but they will also inescapably hear "lie" in a way somewhat different than we do, having two words "fiction" and "lie"
Nothing like being blindsided by a cow orker who played dumb then emailed rhe boss promising you were going to deliver something you never committed to delivering. Holy hell what a sneak.
Never mind, Barry, Arrakis will have to be abandoned soon.