If I remember where you live, Real Clear Politics says Wisconsin and Iowa are still in play, if I read correctly as of 7/10
My guess is that cause cheating, Wisconsin could use help.
The OP's home state does seem hopeless doesn't it?
2 How many electoral votes does Iran have anyway?
As many as the Pope has divisions?
Despite recent polling, I'm reasonably sanguine about my home state (and if HRC wins, I think Toomey loses). So I'm considering heading to the northern suburbs to canvass for a guy who got written in as a Dem opposed to our utterly repulsive state Speaker. He's somewhat vulnerable right now (which is how the write-in guy got thousands of votes with zero organization behind him), and defeating him would be a huge win. But the challenger has no $$, and defeating any incumbent, let a lone a powerful one, is a tough lift.
The same question came up in the other place, specifically to the presidential race and for Californians, and someone more keyed-in said basically phone banking and driving to NV.
I'd really encourage calling up the campaign in a competitive House race and asking what you can do. There are even some right where sane people live and you don't have to go to Ohio or some shit! Looks like the 10th district of Illinois is super-competitive and literally exactly right where Ogged lives. If you're around here I suggest CA-25 or if you're up North CA-10.
That's "what would a useful person do" advice. I'd always wondered what I'd do if there was a for-real threat of fascisn in the US. For myself, turns out the answer is mostly "go to work, go home, sometimes watch videos of skateboarding dogs on the internet."
5 is a really good idea. We have problems at the state legislative level and that's a good way to have an outsized effect. Maybe I'll make a donation to the challenger's campaign; obviously everyone who elects me from dog catcher up to US Senator (non-inclusive) is going to be a Dem, but our suburbs are screwed up representationally.
7 - yeah, I was going to mention Brad Schneider/IL-10.
Dold and Schneider were both in our July 4th parade. Dold is short, Schneider is shlubby. News you can use!
I'll vote for Schneider, obviously, but one problem with living in a district that's so solidly Jewish is that both candidates are hardcore Israel supporters, so I can't muster much enthusiasm for helping Schneider beyond voting for him.
Wisconsin. Do anything you can. Seriously considering a few trips back to... try to register Milwaukee voters maybe? There is a Nation article about their voter id laws that made me ill to read. Family friends just moved to MN in part b/c WI went off the cliff so fast. Finally time to quit not-thinking about it for me.
For the sake of argument, if the main thing one's fighting is a potential fascist president, wouldn't it be better to devote time or money to swing states? Am I reading the math right that flipping the House is not likely unless Trump is already losing badly? (Not that Congressional control is not incredibly important, but weighing the different risks.)
This is why I'm less inclined to do work in California cong districts, tbc.
I know there are lots of Vietnamese-born people in California, but I'm pretty sure they mostly ARVN.
The tone of appeals from the area's suburban Dem reps—Bustos, Schneider whether in or out, Foster—is really dispiriting. Of course I'd vote for them if I had to; Schakowski, my rep, is easier to like.
I was sent to WI in 2012 as a legal poll observer. The most useful thing I did all day was fend off and reassure the gangs of liberals who kept arriving during the day, reminding them that the officials in working-class Racine were doing a really good job and to leave them alone.
And watching ORCA crash on my counterparts was fun.
I don't think Trump doing terribly will result automatically or magically in a changed Congress unless people put some work into elections in close districts. And if rhetoric about wanting actual policy change and something more than a defensive Democratic presidency is serious, that's where the action should be.
10, 11: The US rep for IL-11th looks like he matches the Unfogged Lurker profile.
I agree with 17. Unless something changes, the risk of fascism in the form of an actual Trump presidency is pretty low (20% per Silver, a bit higher in some other estimates/projections; this may be lower than the odds of the House flipping in a 54-46 HRC win). BUT, the risk of fascism as a going strain of Republicanism is much higher, and much more contingent on a thorough repudiation of the GOP this fall.
If Trump loses by a McCain margin, Dems take the Senate 51-50 or 51-49, and the House retains a 10+ seat GOP margin, I think the Republicans proceed as if nothing happened, blind opposition with an added frisson of fascism. But if the Dems gain the Senate by a clean margin and either take the House or make it within 5 seats (at which point the balance of power shifts from the craziest to the least-crazy Reps), I think there could be a backlash against the extremists.
I'm not convinced there are enough non-extremists to form an effective backlash, but it could be enough to actually split the party. And if that doesn't do it, then perhaps nothing will (which is the most likely case, of course).
17: Yes, I don't mean to say that Trump doing badly would automatically mean a House flip, my point is more limited. Trump's chances are low but even 20-30% is scary, which is why I'm inclined to seek out congressional/Senate races in Nevada.
Maybe NV-03. Tossup for both House (open seat) and Senate (Reid), plus swing state.
If you go there to do field, you can stay in the strip (I did just that in '04 and '08. Vegas is weird, even/especially real Vegas).
the risk of fascism as a going strain of Republicanism is much higher
Given that such a strain has already existed for my entire life, I'm putting that risk at 100% with a 0.1% MoE to account for a possibility of a global extinction event.
Silver's model is going to increase Trump's chances as he gets a convention bump, and starts advertising with the money he raised in June and will raise from here on out, now that the uncertainty among Republican donors is snuffed all the way out. (And now that he's shown he's not going to actually be any sort of populist on economic issues.)
It's still Clinton's to lose, but no one should be complacent about the presidential race.
That said, I'll be concentrating on our governor's race. Which we can only win with big turnout in my county.
the risk of fascism as a going strain of Republicanism is much higher
You mean like David Duke running for the Senate?
I guess the OP did specifically mention GOTV, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned giving money. It's way easier than volunteering (if you're financially secure, of course), and just as important.
Maybe everyone else already donates and I'm just late to the party on that one.
Yes, but to who? HRC has enough, I'm personally not that crazy about the DNC. I guess I can look at polling and positions of house races within a few hundred miles...
28: Competitive Senate races are probably the highest priority. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada. State legislative races are very important in some states too, and a little money goes a long way in those.
Also, one of my most politically plugged-in friends pointedly posted on FB that he was donating to HRC in response to Trump's speech last night. So not everyone thinks she has enough.
Cow-orkers at my plugged in political consultancy report that volunteering to knock on doors in a competitive race is the best thing you can do, and recommend the NYT Upshot tracker as a good public source for which states are swingy: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront
Actually, mineshaft advice-- a biker got killed at a nearby intersection, second guy in 2 months at the same spot. Someone claiming to be his roommate posted to a local biking forum, soliciting donations to send the poor guy's body back to his family in Colombia. How to assess legitimacy?
I'm not interested in a hopeless presidential candidate from the green party-- the Sierra club seems more effective as just a lobbying organization.
33.1: Is there a local biking advocacy group protesting about his death? If so, someone there would probably be familiar with details about him.
Does the Green Party field local candidates? State- or even county-level?
In some states they do field state-level candidates. Not sure about county-level, but probably somewhere.
The intersection is the focus of longstanding attention, but is controlled by the state rather than locals. The dead guy, no, and actually the money goes to a roommate (who yes, has an address on the right street) who says he'll hand the money over to decedent's mom. There's a wake/fundraiser for the poor guy, but I can't make it there. The gofundme actually is over the goal.
Maybe a nearby school supplies drive instead.
In some states they do field state-level candidates who lose. If you're into supporting the Green Party, you are either contemptible, an idiot, or a contemptible idiot. "Objectively pro-fascist" is actually an apt moniker.
Does anyone here actually support the Green party?
I can barely remember to only pour used motor oil down the storm drains that aren't marked "no waste, drains to river."
Didn't we settle on Morally Reprehensible Fuckwits For Stein as the official name for the Green part PAC a while back? MRFFS is a much better acronym than CIFS (Contemptible Idiots For Stein).
38
What is wrong with the Green Party? Serious question, not that I'm gonna waste my vote on them. "Objectively pro-fascist" seems like smashing a fly with a sledgehammer.
The Green Party or other minor parties could be good at a local level. I have never heard of any minor party candidates that actually exist at a local level though, except the occasional right-wing maniac from the Libertarian Party, and people who have no party and just run as a cult of personality (and actually get elected, in Maine).
Minor parties could in theory be good at the local level, although local elections are officially non-partisan lots of places, in terms of purely addressing local issues and needs. The problem, though, is that local politics serves to develop a pipeline of people in the major parties who use that experience to move up into state and national politics, and minor parties would weaken that system.
44: Isn't the Working Families party in NYS usually pretty good? I thought that it supplied much of the support for Truthout in her race (I know, Dem primary) against Cuomo. I live in NH (plenty of competitive races here, so I am keeping my bucks and time in-state) so not really up on NY politics, but both sisters live in NYC and that's my general impression of the party.
46: Nevermind - just checked wikipedia. My bad.
New York is unique in that minor parties can endorse major party candidates and get credit for some of their votes that way. This means they play a very different (and more productive) role in state politics than elsewhere.
My TX family's been doing stuff with Battleground Texas, registering folks at mosques etc. I guess that's longer game. I was gonna head down if they needed carpetbagging nieces.
40: Sometimes I feel like I ought to, but (a) don't believe in electoral politics, (b) don't wanna reform capitalism, (c) with a very few exceptions, most of the serious Green activists are wankers.
18:
received the Particle Accelerator Technology Prize from the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
I am deeply glad to know such an award exists.
Rush Holt is no longer in Congress, but he's also a physicist. It doesn't look like he won any cool physics prizes, though.
I don't really consider this news, but no one has told me to fuck off and die yet today so: http://usuncut.com/politics/dnc-email-leak-exposes-bias/
Sorry to hear Rush Holt is no longer in Congress. More like him please.
His replacement is a black woman, so there's that.
Rush Holt bought me Japanese Monopoly
53 So, DWS called Weaver a damn liar based on what he was saying to the media about Nevada. In an email to her staff. In May. There's only one thing to do: Let's throw out all the votes and declare Sanders the winner.
Shoot that wasn't the link I'd meant to post. This one is better: http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/
And they've read the one about I/P wrong. Staffer circulates a WaPo article about the platform compromise, and they discuss that HFA is looking at I/P as an issue to marginalize BS. Which they apparently learn from the reporter who wrote the story.
Still, it's enough. Burn the witch.
The Rhode Island one, from the second link, is even more ridiculous. Can these people fucking read? There's an issue with polling stations in RI, and, knowing that if HRC wins they'll be accused of stealing the election, they talk about trying to get the RI government to fix the problem.
What would Boss Tweed do?
So angry at HRC? Why bro?
I can't imagine that they rigged the election against Bernie. Maybe they would have if they thought they had any chance of losing. They probably never thought that because he had no superdelegates anyway. Maybe they started thinking they might lose at some point, but I doubt it because she won all the African-Americans in all the early states (though he won a lot later). And if they did start thinking they might lose at some point, well, at that point it was too late to rig the election.
I've never said she should be jailed. I've always said I planned to vote for her. This stuff is all over my facebook. So I'm glad if you have a good account for this stuff, really. But if I say burn the witch on facebook close to half my friends will agree, which I doubt is what you want.
TBH, the religion one looks tacky, and the sort of thing that shouldn't be going on.
Say, have I misremembered, or is the release of these emails part of an effort by a foreign government to influence our election?
Who cares, burn the witch anyway. Let's just declare Trump dictator for life right now.
People have claimed Guccifer is Russian, :) Wow red baiting really IS making a comeback. Trump is the Manchurian candidate!
People keep quoting the 20% Nate Silver gives him, but I read the whole article linked here, and IIRC Nate gave him close to 30% with all factors included.
538's forecast (which is updated continuously and changes all the time) currently gives Trump a 41% chance of winning. HRC does not at all have this in the bag.
Wow that seems like quite the post convention bump. Wasn't it in the twenties a week ago?
Yeah, more or less, but it's been trending upwards since. It's still early, though, and we haven't yet had the Dem convention.
Looks like it was more like two weeks ago that it was down around 20%. There's a chart on the page.
So it does. At least 10 days ago. I wonder...it seems like Trump got some mileage out of having a convention where not everything went his way. If the Dem convention is a snooze fest will we get less of a bump?
I think the convention bumps don't tend to be very persistent. The fundamentals do still seem to favor Clinton, though not overwhelmingly.
Right now is probably Trump's peak. I'm surprised 538's model doesn't have an interconvention penalty to "correct" for that. I thought they were all about ad hoc model tweaking.
I hope you are right. This seems plausible to me though http://www.ianwelsh.net/donald-flannel-moth-larvae-head-trump-to-lead-gop-in-general-election/
It is a little unfair I think because I expect Trump to be exceptionally good at mud-slinging phase which I think is going to characterize the rest of the campaign.
The 538 number is not a prediction. It's a probability for if the election were held today. This will be noisy until a couple weeks from now when the DNC bounce settles out. I suspect this will be a very stable race through the fall.
After the fall, it will be really stable.
What Trump is good at in dominance politics. Clinton and her friends (including the killer bees -- Bill, Bernie, Barak, and, I guess, Brown) have to keep painting him as the Wizard of Oz. The Dem freakout is useful to get fence-sitters to take this thing seriously -- because it is serious -- but has the downside of convincing Trump and his minions that they are drawing blood. It's a balance.
I agree with 79. Especially the "dominance" part. I'm always afraid I'll under estimate that because it has never had the slightest appeal to me.
You know one thing that bugs me? There used to be some fairly classy Republicans. The ones who went to the symphony or bird-watching or whatever -- there were Republicans who read Classics, ferchrissakes. Now they're reduced to hiring washed-up third-rate bands from the State Fair circuit, and even those guys despise Republicans and make fun of them at every opportunity. Why, I'll bet there are some of these contemporary Republicans who've never even seen a violin!
I guess an unhinged wizard of oz is the right way to go. Charlatan wrecking shit through incompetence.
You know one thing that bugs me?
I know lots of things that bug you, but that's the first one I ever hear that bugs both you and David Brooks.
82- That seems like a good frame, it ought to work. I'm starting to think it isn't good enough though. Too many people I know seem to think that ordinary politician levels of dishonesty are as bad as an outright con artist. I'm worried the low information types will go with the better showman.
I forget what state you lie in roger -- but there's no doubt Trump will get into the 40s nationally, and there's not much end to the demand for snake oil. We can't reach people who won't pay attention, so we just have to make sure the people who are paying attention make the reasonable choice.
Here in Hillbilly Heaven Trump's going to win if he wins anywhere, I hope you have better luck with your neighbors.
Unhinged Wizard of Oz is probably better than manifestation of a thousand year old trickster god.
Though his base is definitely more Flying Monkey Brigade than Lollipop Guild.
Yep. I'm worried about "If America is going in a different direction than I want, let's blow the whole thing up rather than lose." It fits with how people expect Trump to accomplish things by "negotiating".
What I find confusing about right now is that while material standards are not nearly as bad as the 30s, people everywhere are still going crazy.
I'm not totally convinced they have good enough reason to, but there are some substantial reasons. Things are pretty hopeless if you fall out of economic viability. That's easier and easier to do. And things have been getting worse for most people for forty years now.
Christ, there's a Jacobin piece on Kaine out. Is it as bad as I think it will be?
And DWS is no longer convention chair.
92 Oh god, it's Corey Robin, isn't it?
Here's the other Jacobin piece I read today: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/david-harvey-neoliberalism-capitalism-labor-crisis-resistance/
I didn't think it was that good, but I know I'm not the only person interested in the topic here.
Oh man, I finally replied to the Bernie Bro that's been dominating my Facebook feed for weeks. I asked him whether there was anything Trump could do or say that would make avoiding a Trump presidency more important than sending a message to the DNC. He essentially said no. Then he said "And there's nothing more tired and old than repeatedly parroting "do you want Trump?" to people who don't plan to vote for him."
WTF???
I believe, though, that the cake is taken by the BOBer in my feed who complained about Sarah Silverman being "disrespectful."
Yes, the cake is taken AND eaten. That's wonderful.
I've never liked that expression. It's always seemed to me that if you eat your cake, you still have it. Internally.
96. But he doesn't plan to vote for Trump, he plans to vote for Stein or whoever; functionally equivalent to abstaining anyway. Fuck him. As I said in the other place, in support of SEK, some people need to have Lenin quoted at them, if they want to play at ultra-leftism: "After the competent bodies have decided, all of us, as members of the Party, must act as one man. A Bolshevik in Odessa must cast into the ballot box a ballot paper bearing a Cadet's name even if it sickens him."
100.1 Yes, of course. He's being an idiot. I would use your Lenin quote on him if I hadn't given up on convincing him of anything. Very frustrating.
We in the US will have our very own Brexit moment if these numbskulls get their way.
To be fair, most of Sarah Silverman's act is that she is disrespectful.
Kids today are so respectful, they can't handle Gen X's cynicism.
101: Against stupidity, the gods themselves are helpless.
There seems to be an element of deliberate masochism to this Bernie or Busters thing. All the polls indicate that there really aren't many of them (fewer than there were Clinton dead enders in 2008, by most counts).
Is there any reason to include them in your social media feeds other than to stay pissed off? The lineup of speakers last night was awesome and inspiring, but it seems like everyone would rather snarl at each other.
The Democrats had a speaker who blamed black people for killing Jesus and everybody says the Republicans are the racists. Fire Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Imprison Clinton. Impeach Obama. That is all.
In retrospect, I think your brexit moment was GWB's spurning of the invocation of Article 5.
105. I did indeed unfollow my Bernie Bro after the exchange described above. Last night's convention speakers were inspiring, and I would not rather snarl.
I have a very pro-Bernie guy in my FB feed whom I was afraid was a Buster, but he came out for Hillary today. Quite happy about that. It still came with some ranting about how the revolution has been started, but that's just the price of freedom.
So, the BOBer above has a new pro-Hillary post up. Says Silverman was right. Ok, then.
The tree of liberty must be watered with the bloviation of patriots.
95: I read the Jacobin piece on Harvey, and it was okay. He has a reasonably clear definition of "neoliberalism" -- the Reagan/Thatcher one, not the Clinton/Blair one. Though he does sort-of inflate it into "everyone about the modern world I don't like" by the end.
Just blocked BoBer #2 from my feed at the other place. Phooey. The convention was really great today; Bill Clinton gave an excellent speech. And the mothers's speeches were extremely moving.
Augh. Mothers's should be mothers' .
I think the BoB types are just unreachable at this point.