Heh, I see that whether the military hates him is the subject of some dispute. First, set aside the Air Force and Navy, which aren't going to be involved in the coming Trumpist Insurrection, and I'm pretty sure (don't make me google it) that the rest of the military is something like 40% black or hispanic. There's just no way a group composed like that is going to side with the Trumpists.
No. Violence never discredits, except in the mild-mannered, well-behaved, financially and socially secure* minds of people who write for Slate or the Atlantic. Time and again, reactions across the political spectrum reveal that people love violence. Love it!
Right-wingers love violence because they love "winners," with all their "Hey terrorist/underclass person/Poindexter, argue with my fist/gun/SUV" posturing, and they think associating with the "winner" of a violent event imbues them with some fragment of victory's essence. Left-wingers love it for the embarrassingly similar reason that they are ashamed of the left's long history of defeat, setback and compromise, and believe that notional leftists willing to use violence excel them in sincerity and dedication.
* Though, of course, spongiform with the corrosions of status anxiety and other diseases of affluence.
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The thing about Trump is that he makes Veep look like a serious political documentary, instead of a crazy, anarchic, over-the-top political satire.
May be resonating more just because of the current polls, but two journalist tweets:
John Harwood: "longtime ally of Paul Manafort, Trump's campaign manager: 'Manafort not challenging Trump anymore. Mailing it in. Staff suicidal.'"
Ali Vitali: "A Trump campaign source, in reax to this, tells me 'it's all true' and 'way worse than people realize.'"
I'm open to offers on odds that Trump has either dropped out, found a medical excuse, or otherwise in some way not seriously contesting by election morning.
Ha! This is much closer to the argument I was making in the other thread than how it got interpreted, though not exactly the same.
I'd say more, but I'm just killing time at a bar waiting for my date to arrive so I don't have time to get into it.
I don't really understand what "also gin up some violence for the military that hates him to put down" has to do with the thesis. The simpler thesis is: (a) Trump embodies a lot of the shittiest aspects of the Republican party, mostly naked racism, in a particularly blatant way; (b) Trump is a self-sabotaging buffoon; (c) Trump will lose big time; (d) therefore some of the worst parts of the current Republican party will be discredited.
That actually seems sort of plausible. Though one issue is "what does discredited mean"? Trump is a loser and will lose big time, but he's also basically practicing identity politics for uneducated white morons. It turns off everyone else, including educated white morons. But if there's anything this election has taught us, it's that uneducated white morons who feel threatened in their status by women and minorities will believe almost any horseshit anyone wants to throw at them as long as it seems like they might have their status maintained/enhanced.
8: I'm not dating anyone anymore, but I'd still rather do that than argue about Trump's support among our troops.
The violence is important, because it gives people a "let's not go down that road again" cudgel against white nationalism.
Let's not just focus on the down side of white nationalism.
12: Say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos
I think it's been clear for a while now that Trump's (planned ahead of time) strategy for what to do when he loses the election is to scream about vote rigging and voter fraud and so on. I don't know if that will discredit anything, unless it sparks a big enough blow up that the army literally goes into places and starts shooting mass numbers of people, and then afterwards everyone agrees to keep going after those people and not forgive-and-forget like we did with the civil war. That seems unlikely to me, if only because of the kind of coordination involved.
I mean, in the '90s we had the militia movement, and they did some real violence and then went away when Bush showed up and didn't come back the same. But whatever kind of discrediting they did get when stomped on didn't stop the same conspiracy theory/bigotry/right wing fever dream stuff from showing up again, and Trump is only going to encourage that stuff win or lose.
I'm concerned that Obama and the convention in general have been leaning too hard on the "Republicans are OK, we love Republicans, except for Trump" theme. They need to win elections other than the Presidential one!
9.1: It has to do with the Slatepitch part of the thesis.
10: I meant dating instead of commenting here, independent of the topics of the comment.
Oh. Well obviously I'd rather comment here, but I'm not a big fan of dating. I'll probably still make myself keep trying, but I'm coming up with excuses to put it off.
They really are working up to trying to intimidate the country into throwing the election to them by violence after they lose the election. I do seriously hope there's a plan in place for dealing with that, because it will get fugly.
10: oh boo! I'm sorry to hear that. What happened?
20: I know better than to ask what exactly. Her imagined version of me was more appealing than the real thing, which is always the danger.
It's fine, really. Better to get it out of the way after a couple of dates, and I get to feel reassured I wasn't just being paranoid she was pulling back. I'm glad I asked and I appreciate her honesty and now we can just go on with our lives.
I really was and sort of still am upset about how the girls behaved when I was out with her, but once we're moved, I'm hoping to leave them with babysitters so I can do non-date things and see how that goes. I do probably need to stick with trying okcupid, but if I'm having an ablation in the fall that sounds like an inauspicious time to start something new. Dunno.
The problem with this ending well by this blogs standards is that by discrediting authoritarian rule it discredits Halfordismo which ruins the retirement plans of some of you contributing to this web zine.
Sorry to hear that Thorn. 23.2 sounds like a smart plan.
Plus what's shitty is still Lee and her stupidity. Probably I shouldn't date anyone while that means dragging them into it, but it could be an awfully long time. I hate dating but maybe not that much.
Every single day brings like 5 or 6 fresh Trump outrages. It's almost too much to handle.
Someday this election's gonna end.
I would gladly agree to continue the campaign indefinitely if it meant no chance of Trump becoming president. Can we keep Obama in the meantime?
That would be perfectly acceptable.
That would be perfectly acceptable.
I stared for a while at "diffusing tensions," doubting that it was correct usage. lurid was more inclined to approve it. I think the takeaway from https://jeremybutterfield.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/1861/ is that it's an eggcorn, but an unusually strong one on semantic merits, so people give it a pass.
What's Slate house style is the real question, of course.
I mean, in the '90s we had the militia movement, and they did some real violence and then went away when Bush showed up and didn't come back the same. But whatever kind of discrediting they did get when stomped on didn't stop the same conspiracy theory/bigotry/right wing fever dream stuff from showing up again, and Trump is only going to encourage that stuff win or lose.
But the demographic trends are against those people, and nothing they've done recently compares in level of violence to the militia era. That may well change when Trump loses, but I seriously doubt they have the numbers to mount any kind of credible effort to seize power unless they had active support from the top military brass, which seems very unlikely (and which was my point in the other thread). There just aren't that many of the really hard-core crazy Trump voters compared to the ones who don't actually like him but are grudgingly voting for him out of partisan allegiance. They may still do a lot of damage, and are definitely super terrifying on that count, but I think the country's institutions are actually robust enough to survive anything they can realistically do.
(The date went well, though obviously not well enough to still be going on, and we are definitely going to see each other again soon.)
They really are working up to trying to intimidate the country into throwing the election to them by violence after they lose the election. I do seriously hope there's a plan in place for dealing with that, because it will get fugly.
Good question! Are there people in professions to call for this kind of thing? How are the lefties relating to those professions lately?
Jesus, I'm not even (very) drunk, I'm an idiot for posting 34. Nothing good will come of it. Run away!
We were probably just going to mock you for it anyway.
Oh dear I got pwned by drunk gswift. I was going to say that the issue won't be military mutiny, it will be the racially disproportionate local police forces. Joe Arapio (which appropriately autocorrects to Arabia) has been waiting for this moment his whole life. Do you send in the national guard to fight local police?
which appropriately autocorrects to Arabia
Probably because you spelled it wrong. Arpaio.
36: Think happy thoughts! Have you even caught single fish yet up there? Probably not. Get with the program already. I'm heading back up to Yellowstone soon to see America and try and catch some trout. I recommend the same to everyone. Not everyone can get to Yellowstone but get the fuck outside and do something fun instead of being on the internet.
Hey, I had a date tonight. I'll leave the fishing to others.
Such as SP, accusing you of being pro-Trump.
it will be the racially disproportionate local police forces
Is there a commenter here that holds a job in a career more integrated than your average large metro city police force?
It's a hundred and ten fucking degrees out and it's only 9:30 in the morning and you want me to go out and catch fucking trout ?
I don't even think they have trout in Arabia.
It's not a hundred and ten fucking degrees in Alaska.
43: Get back to AMERICA already. Or failing that, some other trout friendly area like western Europe or New Zealand.
40 You usually have to wait till the second or third date for that.
Trout are weaksauce. Salmon or GTFO.
I'd like to visit New Zealand and I'll be going to western Europe in the fall.
49: Salmon are delicious but they're dumb as hell. Bears catch those idiots just hanging out in the rapids with their mouths open. Trout just don't just show up at your door like a BJ, teo. You have to put some effort into it.
51: I continue to fail to see the appeal.
I'm with teo. Why learn to use a rod and crap when you can just hang out with your mouth open?
Or just buy some fucking fish at a grocery store, and support our hardworking commercial fishermen?
Crapping not recommended when on a date.
Well, that really depends on the date.
Overnight shift at the Mineshaft.
I don't even think they have trout in Arabia.
Nor, despite Ewan McGregor's best efforts, salmon.
teo and his lady can hang out, in a scenic rapid, pausing in their sparkling repartee to savor the salmon that occasionly fall into their open mouths.
While crapping from time to time. So romantic!
I really wish Obama had kept quiet about the Republicans needing to disavow Trump, "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake" and all that.
Well, it's not like they'll listen to him. Him saying it might even make it less likely they'll do it.
Maybe the idea is to tie him to them and let him drag them all down with him. Insert comments about 11 dimensional chess here.
teo and lady could decorously separate for the crapping. I hear bears use the woods.
I'm thinking of cities where the racial makeup of the force is drastically different than the community it's in. St Louis or places in Louisiana for example.
Obama is perhaps making a last effort to preserve the faith and credit of the United States with your increasingly terrified allies.
Erdogan's example makes clear Clinton needs to get people on the street right quick if any shit even looks like being pulled.
It's dumb bluster. Maybe someone will do something stupid but they will be crushed.
Trump sure whines a lot for a so-called "alpha male"
NYT headline "Trump campaigns in Virgina" I scanned quickly as "Trump complains in Virginia."
See? How long before he becomes a laughingstock?
Is 75 ironic? It's clear by now that laughter just consolidates the tribe.
He's got to expand way beyond the tribe if he's going to win.
I don't think the '90s militia were suppressed by forceful response, they were discredited by OKC and slunk away for awhile. Then, post-9/11 and under Bush, they didn't really have a role to play. Why they didn't revive under Obama is an interesting question. One theory would be that they became Tea partiers, because they were too damn old to play Army anymore (if you stipulate that the average militia member in '96 was in his 40s, by '09 he was in his late 50s, which is maybe a little young).
I suppose Dave Neiwert is the one to ask about all this.
Obviously Malheur shows that they didn't vanish, but there's a big gap between vanishing and being as prominent as in '96.
77: depends what the tribe is. As far I'm following, Trump isn't polling much behind a typical R candidate, and that tribe was still big enough to win solidly in 2004.
I read (wrongly?) 72+75 as "tribal support will dissipate in the face of widespread mockery", which it doesn't. Take GWB 2004 just for one.
The election gets decided by low information still not paying attention undecideds in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. It's maybe fair to assume that such people aren't really being fully picked up in the polls
On reflection I retract 5.last. Dropping out would be a lot more humiliating for Trump than losing even in a landslide, especially since a modern-standards landslide would still be closer than 1964, 1972, or 1984.
If it seems certain in late October that Trump is going to lose badly, some columnists need to do their part to save the country by providing Trump a soft landing -- writing (essentially true) articles about what an incredible achievement it was for someone with no previous political experience to have gotten this far, etc.
78: The Militias stuck around a while after OKC city, though. My suspicion is that they mostly just faded out and drifted apart because Bush was everything they ever wanted in a God President (right up until he wasn't). We haven't seen anything as newsworthy/effective since then, but you're right that a lot of that probably is just older adult white people becoming old white people and not having the energy for it anymore.
I do think the last few years have seen a rise in hate groups nationally, though - the Patriot Movement people, the SovCits, and so on. But a lot of the slightly less extremist people who used to end up falling into those groups have the Republican party apparatus right there for them at this point, so the draw isn't as strong either.
They faded out because 9/11 gave terrorism a bad name.
When I looked it up it turns out there really was a huge increase last year (14%), especially among the KKK and black separatist groups(!). It looks like we're really getting retro about hate groups these days too.
Although actually down the page on that link in 85 there's a bar graph that makes it look like OKC really did have a big effect because 1996 (where the chart starts) is huge and it plummets right afterwards (the last two years of Clinton looking almost exactly like the Bush administration.)
the SovCits
Comrade, I am a One-Nation Socialist, and that one nation is Me.
A Union of Soviet Socialist Republicans.
In Soviet Sovereign Citizen Nation, government illegitimizes YOU!
that tribe was still big enough to win solidly in 2004
An incumbent president in the middle of an active war winning 50.7% to 48.3% is a pretty unimpressive margin. And Ohio was 51-49 Bush; a 1% swing there would have given the Electoral College to Kerry.
Best news I've heard in a while.
Yeah, white supremacist terrorism is far from having "faded out." Quite the opposite. It's just been small-scale and opportunistic. (Black separatism making a comeback is likewise not surprising given the crisis of police violence, and especially of racially-motivated police violence, which itself is a side effect of having a bunch of Klan and other supremacists dug into law enforcement like ticks.)
The real "new Civil War" scenario is if the next demagogue to try riding this particular tiger is a) actually politically competent and b) tries to organize the disparate bits and pieces of the racist militia movement into his own private army (which would be doable). This time out I have a feeling the Trumpist bluster about blood in the streets won't amount to much more than a smattering of riots marginally more violent that what white people do when their hockey teams loses. Next time, though?
So some bright spark realized Trump's hand size is quite public, because of Madame Tussaud's. 15th percentile for men - but that's less than 1cm shorter than median.
96: Somehow it only just now occurred to me that this is something Trump and I have in common. Actually I think my hand is even smaller.
The T.Rex had small hands but wasn't to be fucked with, mich like you, peep
The T.Rex had small hands but wasn't to be fucked with
Trump the T.Rex.
97: I feel the need to clarify that I do actually have two hands.
I'm not a big fan of dating. I'll probably still make myself keep trying, but I'm coming up with excuses to put it off.
Ha, but dating is so non-mandatory. If you're not a big fan, why not, as the little girls sing, let it go?
I don't know, Smearcase! Mostly because I haven't given it a fair shot. And I'm ludicrously lonely, which will be ameliorated more by spending time with/making new friends, but dating is one way to respond to that too and try to be like a normalish person.
outside and do something fun
Assumes connections not in evidence.
It looks like we're really getting retro about hate groups these days too.
It's like Mad Men, but for lynch mobs. I wonder if hate groups have marketing departments.
I'm conscious that this might not be normal, but even casual friends go a much longer way toward making me feel less lonely than dates or spouses.
Yeah, the dating thing is basically separate from friends. It's not exactly that I want to be in a relationship but that it seems like I should get plenty of practice so that I'm able to manage it by the time I do want to be in a relationship. (I should probably put this in ogged's thread about how people are insufferable, though I'm insufferable in different ways.)
The two people I've gone on dates with are great people I'm glad I've met and all that and I wouldn't have run into them otherwise, plus the dates themselves were fun. It's the winnowing that's painful. Not only am I incredibly judgmental about how people look, I then read their profiles for reasons to be sure I'd hate them. This is probably not optimal!
I do have some casual friends and can think of ways to make more who might actually have something in common with me. Just all of that has required babysitting and more freedom of movement than I've had this past year. That's a much bigger priority than dating, but also a bigger time commitment.
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I didn't know you had a movie career, ogged!
|>
I promise I'm nice in person! Just not in my heart.
I like 113.
Maybe I should add that to a dating profile.
Please do! Mine needs to be scrapped and rewritten completely and it will be a long while before I get to it and even when I do won't want to confess to being nice. Or I can use it too and well-actually anyone who's able to claim I stole it from some guy in California.
I considered stealing slolerner's "Persifleur seeks flaneuse", appropriately regendered, when I put up a profile, but I figured my plagiarism would be too easily googled.
116: Plagiarism is not a crime in personals. That's covered by the "All's Fair in Love and War" doctrine in Article XII of the Constitution.
I definitely used "persifleur seeks flaneuse" back in the day on craigslist. Maybe I'll use it again! God knows what my profile really needs is more off-putting pretentious stuff.
Yeah, mine is intentionally off-putting and has a photo that's not all that flattering. The long-term goal is to change that for the better.
(It'll still have to be off-putting and pretentious to be accurate but not just that.)
Of course, there's nothing you can say that's offputting to people who don't read the damn thing.
I can't be the only one who's curious about LB's profile.
It has been deactivated -- I was not enjoying the process. I'll probably go back to it at some point, but really unfun.
(And honestly, putting up a profile was completely premature. I was mostly just curious.)
I forget how much people annoy me, generally, when I haven't been interacting with ones I don't know much. (Not that the ones I do know don't annoy me too, but I don't hold that against the species generally.)
It's hard out there for a misanthrope.
It's hard out there for a misanthrope.
New mouseover text.
Yeah, my instinctual response to flirtation is to think, "This won't end well."
Wow, Eggplant, that's an amazing gift!
It's hard out there for a misanthrope.
[Fist bump.]
Will this end well too? It's good theater if nothing else.
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At the driving school waiting for a test appointment. I hope this ends well.
Huh, my pause symbol keeps disappearing.
My early morning confusion not a good omen for this test.
And by here I mean in the driving school waiting room. I had my huge ass mug of black coffee earlier when I woke up.
Well I usually follow it up with a lot of coffee at work.
When landing, keep the gear down and locked.
146 Will pass that advice along when I fly to Dubai next weekend.
I have something truly marvelous to say. If only Barry would push play.
Alarming that none of my credit cards worked to pay the fee.
Now I wait. Fucking roundabouts are my bane.
I am licensed driver of sandworms.
USUL NO LONGER NEEDS THE WEIRDING MODULE L-PLATE.
So my boss has just been surprise replaced by the board while he's away on leave and his predecessor, a seriously connected dude, has been announced as his successor.
This has the potential to go wrong in so many ways and I'm nervous as all hell about it.
At least 2 of my cow orkers worked for this connected dude before and one is very close to him. And I'm close to the cow orker. But damn, I'm worried. Before I was worried mainly about this promotion I think I'm due (and should have had pretty much to start just based on qualifications alone). Now I'm worried about keeping my job under the new regime.
(I was going to move my desk to elsewhere but as that would take me away from my cow orker who is close to the connected dude I think that will have to wait)
And I just skipped out on a dinner a bunch of my cow orkers were having tonight, most from other sections, because I just don't want to deal. Also as I know myself too well and can't trust myself not to blurt out my fears and reservations that had best be kept to myself. Or to the Mineshaft.
So my boss has just been surprise replaced by the board while he's away on leave and his predecessor, a seriously connected dude, has been announced as his successor.
The "Dune" analogy seems to be going a bit far now.
I presume that you started there after the departure of connected dude? Even so, I would not worry unduly. You're doing (one assumes) a good job, and connected dude's cronies will tell him so.
159.last I did indeed start after his departure and I've never met him though I've long wanted to (careful what you wish for...). And thanks.
Not at all. Best of luck with Beast Rabban.
Yeah, feel free to vent the worries here and I hope you get through the changes quickly and comfortably.
Thanks. This is on top of the other American in my section leaving us, someone who's been here about 5 years and who has become a really good friend and someone I can rely on for good advice and backup. We would do regular weekend lunches and shopping. Fortunately he's staying in the country (moving on to another institution, and a really good job for him). I hate this kind of change.
Didn't you land some tremendous thing recently? Or was that not job-related?
I must not politic.
Politic is the joy-killer, the little-death that brings total immiseration.
I will face the politic.
I will permit it to pass far over my head.
And when it has gone past I will turn the Mineshaft to comment on its path.
Where the politic has gone there will be nothing.
Only my desk will remain.
Also congrats on leaving your childish palanquins behind you.
Congratulations on the license, Barry... and good luck with the changes. We just went through a minor round of changes in my department and I'm not happy. (A few good people moved on; fortunately, nothing worse. Still, I'll miss them.)