I'm hoping they will turn on each other. What does the CIA have on Comey?
Evil as they may be, the CIA and NSA deal in facts, and facts are not Cheeto Benito's strong point. I think there are people within the intelligence community who are genuinely scared of Trump because of his detachment from reality. He could easily stumble into a major war through simple incompetence.
OP.3 describes real life checks and balances in most governments most of the time, add some bankers or foreign influencers also.
IMO, this very visible demonstration that the US is no different than anyplace else is healthy. American exceptionalism is definitely poisonous.
I am undecided about exactly when generalized faith in the quality of US institutions is a good thing-- this faith spurs many public-minded people to do their jobs well and honestly. On the other hand, it makes certain assessments of public institutions difficult, because saying the institution itself (say the SEC or FBI) is not meaningful beyond the will and action of the people in it today sounds like an attack to people who have this faith.
the unaccountable deep state sucks in normal times, but it provides an important check on a crew of berserkers like the ones currently in the executive branch.
I suspect this may be the noise made by an American (or a 19th century Brit) who is realising the benefit of having a professional permanent civil service.
To quibble, it appears the Flynn leaks came from the FBI and/or DoJ, based on NSA intercepts.
#2
Are you misremembering WMD's re: Iraq and all that jazz?
Yeah, they deal in facts; as well as lies, half-truths, propaganda, and distortion. The IC generally and the CIA in particular seem to "stumble" into armed conflict on a regular basis. I'm sure they have our best interests at the very forefront of their hive mind.
6: Huh? The CIA report said that Iraq had effectively no WMD and risible capabilities. Bush & Cheney took that report and blacked out enough words so that it read "Iraq had WMD and capabilities."
It's frankly astonishing that somebody in 2017 doesn't know this, given that the report was declassified a decade ago, and that it remains a major piece of evidence that Bush & Cheney deserve to be in jail.
I don't remember that specific thing on the blacking-out, but I remember the Bush administration cherry-picking intelligence as they saw fit, without regard to overall IC conclusions, including pulling together a special committee for this exact purpose (I wanted to say Iraq Survey Group but looks like that was something different).
I have a crackpot theory that faith in institutions is self-fulfilling. The difference between Germany and Italy is that Germans don't assume their politicians are all crooks, and Italians do. Objectively, the Italians are probably right, but it means that when a German politician gets caught plagiarizing his Ph.D. thesis he has to resign, while Italy elects Belusconi because they're probably all just as bad, right?
9: Yes! I have the sneaking suspicion that a lot of government employees in this country fundamentally believe that government is and must always be inefficient and plodding and full of deadwood, and they want in on the scam. And by believing, they make it so, even if they could do a lot better.
So most government employees are Ron Swanson?
10 is very true in my experience. As is 9.
There's huge variation among agencies and departments in how much the staff values and believes in the mission, and it shows very clearly in their work ethic and morale.
I have found 9 to be very true as well. It makes it hard to talk politics with Italians.
Italians, or at least Italian Americans, are hard to talk to because they criticize my drinking.
17:
Perhaps you should drink more red wine-and-Coca Cola cocktails.
9 and 10 are both interesting remarks. But American liberals who believe in the institutions of government are not like Germans... Hmm, maybe that's a really superficial assessment.
Many French also believe strongly in their institutions, and in the value of doing well when you have a chance to, Brits, Czechs and Poles by and large believe the latter as well if we're stereotyping.
Food for thought, thanks Walt.
I feel like one way in which my family is not American is the strong belief in the noble principles of bureaucracy. My parents were both at one time or another government bureaucrats, which they saw as their calling (in the Protestant sense). Cheating the system was incredibly frowned upon as a antisocial and a moral wrong.
With bureaucracy, my boyfriend always assumes the worst, and either gives up before trying or gets so anxious as to not be able to cope. He is incredibly bad at navigating bureaucracies and freezes up at answering even straightforward questions on forms. Most of our fights are about him refusing to do paperwork and/or messing it up in kind of stupid ways.*
*Most recently I gave him an ultimatum over going to dentist, which means he has to sort out his Czech health insurance, which he should get under EU reciprocity rules, except he let his old medical card expire.
As a bureaucrat, I've seen plenty of ppl who are super into doing a good job. And then some others.
12: I was twice your age before I figured out that working is for chumps.
Czech dentists are cheap, not worth the trouble to fill out paperwork which in any case is recreational antagonism there. Jiri Grusa's entertaining novel "questionnaire" is maybe relevant to the discussion-- there are attitudes distinct to both sloth and to faith.
Here's a question: Chinese people believe in something when it comes to institutions, only Chinese ones though. What is it they believe in?
For values of things that include human faces.
They do indeed stamp things forever. But not my face. Probably they do that on the mainland though.
Earth benders can stamp on the earth and make it move.
The earth moved for you? Or was it just the drinking?
32 makes one suspect the true power of earth benders lies in the possession of lawyers.
9 is basically the concept of social trust, the stuff that makes Germany and Sicily so different.
Meanwhile, 21 is very familiar and so is this:
With bureaucracy, my boyfriend always assumes the worst, and either gives up before trying or gets so anxious as to not be able to cope. He is incredibly bad at navigating bureaucracies and freezes up at answering even straightforward questions on forms. Most of our fights are about him refusing to do paperwork and/or messing it up in kind of stupid ways.
32: IMHMHB the unintentional hilarity of this film to a culture where "bender" is a (slightly rude) slang term for "gay person". "There are many powerful benders in the north of this country", etc.
A (gay) friend of mine took her daughter to see it and was taken aback to be asked "what kind of bender are you mummy?"
35
I remember reading a (New Yorker?) article maybe 20 years ago written by a wealthy Sicilian woman, and after her granddaughter badly cut her finger, her first thought was "who do I know who's a doctor," not to take her to the emergency room.
China is interesting because there is very little broad social trust but at the same time there's a firm belief in bureaucracy. It's the sort of system where bureaucracy works, but you can show off social status by "going through the back door." People will try to seek out connections even if it doesn't actually make the process faster or easier or even change anything at all. Also, I've found bureaucrats also seem to function on wanting life to be easy, so the way to get things done is to make not doing their jobs harder than doing their jobs.* Then people can be quite competent.
Stamping is huge. Everything has to have a stamp, and often the more stamps the merrier. It's changing, but shopping in a department store China used to be hilariously Byzantine, where you had to get a receipt in triplicate, take it somewhere else to pay, then get it stamped a whole bunch, then take two of the copies back to the person who has your purchase.
*Most bureaucrats I know are actually very nice people but bored and underpaid, and many are assigned to their work unit somewhat randomly and thus have no innate interest in their area.
Stamping is huge. Everything has to have a stamp, and often the more stamps the merrier.
IIRC same in Japan; there were stories in 2011 of companies which had evacuated from the exclusion zone around Fukushima and left their official company chop behind, without which they were incapable of doing business. It has a pleasantly epic-fantasy sound to it. "There is naught else, young Kazuo. You and your band of junior accounting managers must journey into the poisoned heart of the Exclusion Zone and brave every danger in order to retrieve the Seal of Fiscal Probity and return it to us. We place the fate of Watanabe Stressed Cardboard and Packaging Products, Ltd. in your hands. Do not fail us."
Americans would never be as silly as those inscrutable Asians.
41: Adding "design roleplaying game scenario set in a world where legal instruments have magical force" to the to-do list.
39 is delightful. I would watch that anime. Probably wouldn't make a full series out of it but it could be an OVA.
Legal instruments are already the closest thing to magic in this world, with code coming second.
That's those Max Gladstone books, right? I actually found the first one, about reanimating a dead god, a little offputting because the BigLaw feel of it was so convincing.
44: They were recommended here the last time I brought up that I'm totally into the fantasy/sci-fi accounting sub-genre, but I decided to try the other recommendation first, Daniel Abraham's Dagger and Coin series. Good fun, although I enjoy the running-a-bank part of it more than the political machinations. Well, except that the made the bullied, bookish nerd protagonist into a utter villain, which was nice. That led me to read a book he mentioned in the afterword on the Medicis, and then I got seriously side-tracked since the kindle version of the first book in the series also included the first book in The Expanse series as a bonus.
There's a Niven short story in that vein. "Transfer of Power"?
44, 45: thanks, will look those up.
"Transfer of Power" has the idea of contracts and promises having binding magical force, but there's no actual litigation involved...
No litigation, but it is playing around with the idea that the person who comes out ahead does so not by superior force but by knowing more about what is in the contracts.
And there is a rather splendid short story by Daniel Abraham online here
http://www.lightspeedmagazine.com/fiction/the-cambist-and-lord-iron-a-fairy-tale-of-economics/
48: true. It seems more similar to all the stories about selling your soul to the devil and finding a loophole, though.
49: Oh, I like that. Very Lord Dunsany.
The link in 49 is very good. This conversation reminds me of Jack Vance but my brain is failing to come up with a specific example from his work. I want to say the Lyonesse trilogy, maybe?
44 etc: I feel compelled to note that all five books in that series are currently on sale at Amazon for $2.99 each, or $12.00 the lot.
They're very good, or at least the first three are.
I too like Max Gladstone's books! I was meaning to reread them in story-chronological order rather than published order to see how they work like that, but stalled out early, which is not his fault.
In non-reading life, kiddo is home as of last night and back in school today. The school hasn't called me, so I'm guessing things are going well enough. The reentry is going to be an adjustment for all the girls, but I think we'll manage and I should be able to keep them busy through the weekend without entirely destroying myself.
54: Thank you! Just bought the entire set.
Between this, the rest of the Daniel Abrahams books, finishing The Expanse (or at least enough to be ahead of the TV show), a biography of Cixi I'm reading, and my new subscription to the WaPo, I think I'm pretty much set for reading for the next few months. No clue how the hell I'm going to read Hugo books.
58: Yay for return to normalcy! Or normalcy-adjacent calm! Glad she's okay.
49. Good, old fashioned, story. Thanks!
44 etc: I feel compelled to note that all five books in that series are currently on sale at Amazon for $2.99 each, or $12.00 the lot.
What the? These are Abraham's Dagger and Coin books, right? Amazon wasn't & isn't showing me option at all. Instead I bought the first book at regular price. I'd have picked up all five at that price. (I also did a quick check to see if this might be the Gladstone books. Nope.) Grrr.
Ah. Cleared some cookies. Found the deal for Gladstone. Got it.
58.2: Glad for things going well, and good luck with the long weekend ahead. Hope it's enjoyable!
62: He meant the Max Gladstone "The Craft" series, starting with "Three Parts Dead." I think that's what he meant; at least, that's what I got for cheap. I just checked and it's still $2.99 per book; FWIW I'm USian, but I think you are, too?
Not all is lost, as The Dragon's Path is still a good book and you still get a deal: the Kindle edition of Abraham's first book includes Leviathan Wakes, the first book in The Expanse series he writes with Ty Franck under the James S. A. Corey name. It's a fun space politics/classic noir/body horror/zombies romp.
Yes, Gladstone.
I read the first book in Expanse and it was quite readable, but hard-sf-y to an almost fetishistic extent.
Thanks, pals. My one other hospital story is that when we had the meeting where we agreed on what her discharge plan would be, they asked if there were any spiritual needs/beliefs our family had that they should be aware of or something like that. I said no, not really, but she piped up, "Yes! I believe unicorns are real!" (I don't know that that's true, but fine. Go for it!)
I haven't read the expanse but the TV series is enjoyable. Also The Magicians tv series on Syfy is very good indeed.
Love me some Lord Dunsany but it's been awhile. Thanks for the link upthread.
#7
I recall the wave of high profile resignations, the flood of leaks demonstrating how manipulated the intelligence Cheney et al were pushing was, the sheer number of IC analysts who called out the bullshit that was Powell's dog and pony show at the UN--wait, no I don't. Was there some isolated pushback? Sure, a little. Was there open revolt or even clear conflict with the executive branch? Not even close.
Yeah, I believe in institutions and institutional knowledge too. But, pray tell, on balance what exactly has the IC done over the last 2 decades that convinces anyone that, despite the glaring clusterfucks, these institutions are fact based dispensers of truth serum? And the CIA? I mean come on.
she piped up, "Yes! I believe unicorns are real!" (I don't know that that's true, but fine. Go for it!)
That is lovely. It's important to be able to self-advocate!
69: The CIA literally warned the Bush administration about the possibility of a major al Qaeda terrorist attack in the months before 9/11. One of the many facts that were inconvenient for Republicans, and were therefore flushed down the memory hole.
I remember thinking that the expanse series was crap, but I don't remember why. It was among other things forgettable, I suppose.
69: I recall hearing all manner of leaks from the IC about how information was being twisted in the runup to the Iraq war, but even if not it doesn't change the fact that the IC deals in facts. They may get them wrong, but they are not generally in the business of making statements that are at odds with easily verifiable facts. When they do just make shit up it's for disinformation purposes and they try to make it plausible. Trump, on the other hand, just says whatever sounds good to him at the time. It's only a matter of time before he blows some intelligence operation or other by spouting off things he should keep quiet.
"But, pray tell, on balance what exactly has the IC done over the last 2 decades that convinces anyone that, despite the glaring clusterfucks, these institutions are fact based dispensers of truth serum? And the CIA? I mean come on."
Found bin Laden?
Or do you believe he's still alive?
"After all, explain the 'burial at sea'. They wouldn't have done that if there had been a body."
This is part of a more complicated conspiracy theory. During the Bush administration, she believed that Osama was living safely on the Bush ranch in Crawford, as a useful political ally.
Once Obama came into power, he obtained proof that Osama was alive and being sheltered by Republican political figures, and declared that he'd successfully killed him because no one could safely contradict him without being exposed.
Prove her wrong.
That's not an argument. That's just contradiction.
She's almost right. Actually, "Bin Laden" was Bush in a fake beard and a very racist nose. They were recovered by SEAL Team Six from the Bush compound while the ex-president was in the bath. The so-called "burial at sea" was performed in the toilet of the Oval Office.
#74
Bin Laden? I think he was likely whisked away to an elite resort/nudist colony on Mars.
What does Bin Laden have to do with the veracity capacities of the IC anyway? He was executed a decade after the fact. Bravo. Next time I need a globally recognized terrorist figure rubbed out I know who I'll turn to.
Bottom line, I find the emergent goodwill, trust, and faith in democratically unaccountable elements of the IC fairly remarkable, Trump or no Trump.
77: I buy it. Trump will blurt out the truth any day now.
"What does Bin Laden have to do with the veracity capacities of the IC anyway?"
Well, they got his location right.
". Next time I need a globally recognized terrorist figure rubbed out I know who I'll turn to."
No, it was actually JSOC who did the rubbing out. Not the CIA.
67 last is so lovely. ❤❤❤
I find myself overcome regularly these days with an imperative need to hang out with a toddler or equivalently absorbing person, just to blot it all out temporarily.
67 just made everything about my day. Thank you. And so glad she's home.
I'm concerned that 39% of the people know in their hearts that he collaborated with Russian cyber-attacks on American democracy and seem to be basically OK with it.
I expect most don't, thanks to their airtight filter bubble. If they do though, I think you're right. Not just "My party, right or wrong" but, "My party, especially when wrong."
"It's my party and we'll lie if we want to."
If Miley is a Trumpist I'm just giving up right now.
So Harward didn't want any part of what he told a friend was a "shit sandwich." This would be funnier if it weren't so serious. It sounds like the stumbling block was (Bannon?) insisting that K. T. McFarland stay on as DNSA.
If he would have been stuck between Bannon and McFarland that makes him the shit and they're the bread. Or is he saying Bannon was coming between him and Trump, more appropriately making Bannon the shit? These metaphors are so confusing.
I always thought "shit sandwich" was a bad metaphor anyway. I've heard it used for two completely different things:
1) the classic appraisal structure good-bad-good. "Well, I've been really impressed with how quickly you've got up to speed on our archiving here. [good!] I think you need to work on not stabbing any more co-workers with pencils. [bad!] But if you can cut down the bloodshed I think you have excellent prospects for promotion next year. [good!]"
2) just an emphatic way of saying "something really shit".
I thought a shit sandwich was something deeply unpleasant that you had to eat publicly, or by extension a repulsive situation in which your involvement is inescapable either because of your formal position or because of what you've done before.
I've always taken it to mean 93.1, with the additional aim of trying to conceal the shittiness of the shit. In this case "You can be NSA!--In the Trump administration!--It's very prestigious!"
85: Toddlers and equivalents definitely help, though they know how bad things are too. Mara was sad on the way to physical therapy yesterday (why yes, I do spend all my spare time at Children's Hospital, why do you ask?) and said that she knows I love her but she's still hurting because it feels like Donald Trump is squeezing all the love out of the world.
The child who's out of the hospital volunteered on her first day back to school to be the spokesperson in the pitch some classmates are making to start a garden club. She brainstormed with my mom last night, got my mom to promise some seeds and me to agree to be a parent volunteer and she dressed professionally today to make sure she makes a good impression in trying to get this approved!
So, comity on: the "shit-sandwich" metaphor is irritatingly multivalent and should be eschewed; the expression of a constitutionally protected belief in unicorns is charming and should be appreciated.
94 is my understanding. A shit sandwich is a situation that sucks balls but you have to just deal with it.
I like the "shit sandwich" metaphor. 95 is my main read of it.
What truly baffles me is that when people say, "It's the shit!" that means it's good.
Neoliberalism really moved the Overton Window on the shit sandwich metaphor.
Also, I'd just like to note that my phone auto-suggested "sandwich" after I typed "shit".