Hey, look, the federal government is shut down.
Did I miss an over/under on how long it would last? People seem sure it will last at least until Jan. 3; I haven't seen anyone put an upper limit on it. It seems like people are just giving up on predicting things. History is meaningless these days. Here's a Vox article about it. At this point I'd predict the Democrats will cave, the leftier-than-thou among us will be furious about it, and the moderates will point out that they had no options because a psycho was holding a gun to the heads of Democratic constituents. Honestly not sure which camp I'd be in myself. (Depends on details of how they cave, among other things.)
Honestly, I have a bit of impostor syndrome. I work in a government office and am unaffected. Same for everyone I know, except for a friend we got together with last night. This is partly because my office is user-fee-funded and partly because the shutdown happened the Saturday before Christmas. I.e. for me it's indistinguishable from the effects of vacation.
People seem sure it will last at least until Jan. 3; I haven't seen anyone put an upper limit on it.
I haven't read the Vox article. Last I heard, it lasts at least until Jan. 3 because Congress isn't reconvening until then. I figure the pressure isn't really on from the Republican side to get things going again until Jan. 11 because that's when the first paychecks for furloughed federal workers, and those working as essential personnel, are due. Forget where I saw that Jan. 11 thing explained the other day.
The Dem counter-offer should be that if he agrees to give up on the wall, they will agree to destroy the pee tape and the n-word tape.
It's possible the Democrats will fold out of general fecklessness and concern for the federal workers, but they do have all the leverage here and Trump is not actually a good negotiator. I think it's more likely he ultimately folds, but it could well take several weeks.
It is kind of remarkable how nobody seems to really be treating this as a crisis, in contrast to previous shutdowns, even though it's a lot less clear when and how it's going to be resolved.
That's what makes it a true Trump shutdown.
It's going to be a real mess for science postdoc hiring if it lasts more than another couple weeks...
Stupid question: why does it matter what the Democrats think about wall funding? The new Congress hasn't been seated yet.
The Dem counter-offer should be to put Trump on Mount Rushmore, but then write the bill so that Trump actually has to go live up on Mount Rushmore.
It's already wrecking havoc for the Federal government hiring economists -- interviews are usually conducted the first week of January at a certain conference, but agencies are cancelling.
Economists sound like people who would raise the interest rate to save the long term economy without even considering the president's adjusted-rate loans.
It is kind of remarkable how nobody seems to really be treating this as a crisis, in contrast to previous shutdowns, even though it's a lot less clear when and how it's going to be resolved.
I think in previous shutdowns and shutdown threats the Republicans convinced the media that they didn't want the government to be shut down, so it was a more exciting media story because supposedly both parties were trying desperately to avoid it and yet it might happen! Whereas now it seems more like the Republicans are happy to have the government shut down for as long as possible, so it's just another old partisan spat.
Kind of like how the issue of DACA immigrants having their lives ruined or not ruined was a big issue when supposedly both parties wanted their lives to not be ruined and that meant Washington might do something to help them, but it went away when it became a partisan issue with Republicans wanting to ruin the lives and Democrats wanting to not ruin the lives, meaning nothing was going to happen.
Of course it's different because the shutdown has to end at some point, so it won't disappear from the radar completely.
Trump and the true believers are happy to have it shut down. "Proud" was his word. The sane but sociopathic faction of Republicans probably don't want it shut down, they know it looks bad, but they don't care too much. None of them are up for reelection for another 22 months.
The funny thing is Trump apparently thinks he's saving money through the shutdown, and that he'll get to use the money on whatever he wants, and that he can use it on the wall- hence the "shutdown money" tweet. Honestly he seems so invested in this it's almost certain that there's some construction deal lined up for him to make a profit off whatever wall-like substance he actually plans to do. I'm also suspicious that Mnuchin bought some ultrashort ETFs the week before his, "Nothing to see here, remain calm!" announcement.
Personally we've already been screwed by the shutdown in a first-world problems way. We paid $500 for the whole family to get Global Entry because we're traveling abroad in Feb and June, and the interview was supposed to be this week but was canceled and can't be rescheduled until the shutdown ends, so we're not going to have it in time for the first trip (but hopefully the second). We don't really lose the money because we'll still have it for 5 years but it's annoying that we planned way in advance and Trump fucked it up. I'm not exactly clear why they need to interview a six year old in person anyway.
Oh I guess they need to get her fingerprints.
It's possible the Democrats will fold out of general fecklessness and concern for the federal workers
If the Democrats gave a shit about the federal workers they'd be marching behind their banners down Pennsylvania Avenue as we speak. General fecklessness sounds plausible.
10 sounds like a good idea.
11: I have a friend who works for the Federal Reserve. Are they funded independently in such a way that he's getting paid?
On the 'terrible negotiator' front, I guess this is the thread to note that Trump has whimsically annihilated US bargaining power in Afghanistan and Syria, in the latter case possibly in effect recognizing a Russian sphere of influence, and definitely shredding America's ability to set up important things that work, like the anti-ISIL coalition. Also that your new (acting) Secretary of Defense is a Boeing exec.
So, what happens when the new Congress is in session? The continuing resolution they are fighting over will have to be introduced in the House again, and we can assume it won't have border wall funding in it. If it gets a vote in the Senate - which I think it will - it will pass.
And if Trump vetoes that, are there 67 votes in the Senate to override a veto? Seems like maybe, maybe not.
I'm not exactly clear why they need to interview a six year old in person anyway.
There's a whole new section of questions regarding Santa Claus.
She's already ruined that for several of her classmates.
As usual, I have a couple of friends who are furloughed, and a few who are "essential" (i.e., working without pay). They're pissed, of course, but this happens frequently enough that AFAIK most of them have prepared with some savings. What's (especially) bullshit, of course, is that contractors (including, for example, custodians) won't even get paid retroactively.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but at least this time I don't believe the NIH has been shit down, so enrollment in cancer trials hasn't stopped.
I second 9; I really don't get it. the democrats don't matter at all right now. the republicans can give trump all the wall funding he wants. what gives?
9,25: The Republicans did get a bill with wall funding through the House, but it died in the Senate (as was anticipated) because the Republicans had already used their one filibuster-proof budget bill per year under the standard rules, and McConnell wasn't willing to blow up the normal filibuster rule just to get Donald his wall (the way he did when it was a Supreme Court nomination on the line). It's unclear if the House Republicans would have had the votes to pass the funding if they hadn't been confident the Senate would kill it, because it is a fundamentally stupid waste of money that is opposed by the majority of voters. Some marginal House Republicans may have figured that a show vote in support of Trump wouldn't cost them much if the wall never got built, but a vote for a colossally stupid project that was actually underway in 2020 might come back to haunt them.
9
Stupid question: why does it matter what the Democrats think about wall funding? The new Congress hasn't been seated yet.
I second 9; I really don't get it. the democrats don't matter at all right now.
The last day of the old Congress was 12/21/18. The money ran out and the shutdown happened on 12/22. On 12/27, Congress was in session, but only for less than 15 minutes (seriously, I heard a certain number of seconds.) The new Congress, the people who got elected and reelected in November, gets sworn in on 1/3/19. The current Congress and president chose to make it the Democrats' problem. I guess that makes it unusually unambiguous that they wanted the shutdown, and doesn't speak well of their intelligence, but it really does mean that how Democrats handle things matter, even though they don't control a house of Congress right now.
They don't want me. They want a fight over me to distract from all the worst things bring done by the administration.
The Wall itself has become a Fox News fever-dream fetish object. The only hope now is to spread rumors that walls themselves are actually a secret liberal-communist plot (cf. Berlin Wall).
Even Stanley doesn't see me.
I need some medicine. Maybe Wall Drug can help?
Ever since people figured out that containing the explosion of gun powder in a tube can propel a projectile at great velocity on a nearly flat trajectory, I've been having a bad time of it.
It would be in character for the Dems to fold in some ignominious way, but they got dealt an especially good hand (Trump preemptively taking the blame on camera)
I think there's a chance that once they're seated, the new Dem House passes a clean bill, meaning the barriers are both the House and the Senate, not just the Senate, and while that doesn't necessarily keep Trump from continuing to hold his breath and turn bluer, maybe it feels different / difficult enough that he finally gives in.
I suppose the last exit failing that is a veto override from both parties, but I can't imagine that happening without the stasis aging unacceptably (like, another month of shutdown).
Another reason for moving some federal offices to W Va and other deplorable places?
Anywhere but Ohio. We have to keep some decency.
||
Anyone ever heard of this?
Humpbacks, it is said, migrating up Africa's west coast will often move close to the coast specifically where the Congo flows into the sea, to kill their barnacles off in the fresh water . . . it is also said that sail-boats were taken there for the same reason.|>
I didn't know whales tried to kill sailboats.
He doesn't try. He succeeds.
Slightly OT:
I recommend signing this petition, from Social Security Works (affiliated with ActBlue), directed to Pelosi and the incoming Democratic House leadership, calling for a rejection of so-called PayGo rules in the House rules package to be voted on by the incoming Dem House majority. Apparently Pelosi is a fan of PayGo rules, according to which increases in federal government spending must be offset by cuts elsewhere (or by tax increases), rendering them thereby deficit neutral.
It's not something I had particularly paid attention to myself, but David Dayen at the New Republic has a good overview of the issues at hand, and a clear explanation of why PayGo is and has been a really bad idea.
NMM2 June Whitfield, not that most of you have heard of her.
42: That was only after extreme provocation.
Couple sitting next Thursday me on this flight are eating stinky sandwiches before takeoff. On topic because WTF!?
Thursday a/b next to me. Stupid autocorrect.
I drank a lot of beer at the airport bar and I'm sitting in a window seat so I will have my revenge soon enough
If you're can hold it in long enough I'll wait till they're asleep, because that's how I roll.
If I can hold it in long enough I'll wait till they're asleep, because that's how I roll.
That's a good thing to shout if an air marshal grabs you.
46 is a good link, and speaks very badly indeed of Pelosi.
Anyway, speaking of whales, I have a new favorite Nicole Kidman movie.
"a testis from a blue whale can weigh 100 lbs and be difficult to manipulate"
This shutdown is such a weird one. I suppose that's why it's not getting more press - only a few departments affected. NIH is still up and running, passports are being processed, FAA, TSA, basically everything is fine-ish for a low-information citizen. It's like a lot of policies of this administration in that it's awful and will do serious long-term damage to having a functional government/rule of law, but it's enough under the radar that no one cares. If you think about a long game, the administration is building a case that these functions aren't necessary since we went without them for weeks and nothing bad happened. Same as all the unfilled positions at State - guess we didn't need all those diplomatic corps, did we?
That's how I'm experiencing it, I guess. I have an open matter with one of the agencies, but mostly no effect on me, personally. Our national parks are mostly closed down in the winter, for example. If a loved one had gone missing on an Indian reservation, though, I'd feel differently.
What the know-nothings don't seem to understand is that these agencies aren't so much in the business of dispensing largess on the undeserving, but in keeping the wheels of commerce turning. Sure, you can get rid of DOT: just don't expect much in the way of infrastructure a decade or so hence.
I think that enough of them understand it but don't care because of either their expected death or being rich enough that they can be aristocrats in an America with no more middle class.
I keep thinking back to the Gingrich shutdown, which I think caused outrage over no USPS ("Fuck the government, drown it in a bathtub, hey where's my social security check?"). This seems to be the logical end of having people care about shutdowns.
I have a souvenir from the 1995 shutdown -- I'd sent a sweetgrass braid to a high ranking WH official, who was the wife of one of the partners at my firm, and she sent me a thank you note on WH cardstock. Anyway, the Wikipedia article on the shutdown is nicely informative: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdowns_of_1995%E2%80%931996#Event
(I gave a lot of people sweetgrass braids in the late 90s into the 00s. It's great having one just sitting in your office/living room/whatever. Try it!)
This morning we saw our senator and presidential contender at the dog park, is that a benefit of the shutdown? I guess congress would be in recess anyway.
I think even if they aren't getting paid, they should still pee inside.
67. Aren't most Social Security checks electronically deposited these days? Shutting down the USPS would hardly be noticed.
Y'all think Lindsay Graham is shooting for that open cabinet slot at Secretary of Defense?
ISTR commentary saying that he clearly is, but that he equally clearly isn't enough of a yes-man for Trump.
He seems to have talked Trump back in to staying at war in Syria today. We'll see if that holds.
Nah. Recep can call anytime.
He called and asked him to walk it back
Graham would be a total idiot to take a cabinet job. Seems to that Occam's Razor points to him working to placate the unhinged fringe -- which in South Carolina is saying something -- to stave off a primary challenge.
he equally clearly isn't enough of a yes-man for Trump
Doesn't that make him a great candidate for being completely humiliated when he fails, tries to resign on his own terms, and gets tweeted out? Seems like the kind of thing the president goes for. Yes-men don't get that kind of opportunity to be torn down.
Recep, Vlad, Bashir, Jong-un, whoever. Anyone the president likes.
What cabinet positions did they hold?
72: Shutting down USPS on December 22 would hardly have been noticed? I dunno, I was mailing packages to friends and their children. You're correct re: social security checks, which were the most important example in the 1995 shutdown, but I think this shutdown avoids the most visible signs of something being seriously wrong with the federal government. I think most people would notice a USPS shutdown, even those who get very little real mail. There are, of course, lots of examples of the phenomenon, but that one seemed like one of the most obvious.
I think many here would enjoy (arguing about), "IQ Cults, Nonlinearity, and Reality: a Bird-watcher's Parable", at http://simondedeo.com/?p=337.
I read that link (in Private mode) and then went to FB and an ad for the National Audubon Society was at the top of my feed.
OT: How big of a door dent does it take for a rental car company to notice?
A lot of people marveled at Lindsay Graham's especially abrupt turnaround on Trump, but given the National Enquirer and Michael Cohen sphere we're learning about, it's starting to feel not just conceivable but fairly plausible that he was literally blackmailed into switching. Since he had been one of the biggest anti-Trumpers among actual elected officials, it would have been an effective warning signal to others.
How big of a door dent does it take for a rental car company to notice?
A car rental guy once told me that a scratch needs to be six inches long for them to care. Not sure what the protocol is for dents, though.
It's not the size of the dent it's how you use it.
I think some asshole just doored me. The scratch is small, but the panel is clearly caved in a bit.
Hit it with some drywall paste and a sharpie... they will never notice.
I think this shutdown avoids the most visible signs of something being seriously wrong with the federal government.
Surely the answer is to federalize trash collection.
A natural disaster of some kind will kill a large number of Rohingyas in Bangladesh.