I'm averagely worried. Not super, much less duper.
If Trump ends unable to hold rallies, or only in front of small crowds, I'd like to think that would hurt him significantly. That semi-improv interaction with an energetic crowd seems to be one of his chief strenghts (aprt from just being, you know, the Republican candidate).
OTOH, maybe it only mattered because it won him the primaries.
Probably, considering the margin in the general.
Never mind, worry away.
We're all going to die.
Eventually.
A historian told me recently that if the election isn't held, Trump's term expires on schedule and power moves down to Pelosi. It's inconceivable to me that this would happen smoothly and democracy-preservingly. At that point I think it's whoever controls the military.
What with the GOP shutting down polling places in Democratic districts so people have to wait in long lines for five hours or more? No, I'm not worried at all.
Also, frenzy against the Chinese (Communist Party) is long overdue, on many things. Everyone killed by Covid will have been killed in large part by CCP fuckups at the outset. And not forgivable, only-human, shit-happens fuckups. Totally predictable and predicted fuckups, exactly like the SARS fuckup (which HK and ROC and SG remembered and learned from but the PRC itself didn't).
7: The US is fucking up about the same, maybe more when the dust clears. I don't see how this isn't a failure mode common to governments democratic and non.
I saw this thread saying that it wouldn't go to Pelosi, it would go to Patrick Leahy.
5: Without an election, Nancy Pelosi's term expires on January 3, 2021, three weeks before Trump's and Pence's. One third of the Senators' terms also expire that date. The next person in line is the President Pro Tem of the Senate, currently Charles Grassley of Iowa. Grassley's term in the Senate does not expire, although his term as President Pro Tem arguably does expire.
Cancellation of elections won't happen. If corona virus, or a 9/11-style hit on the United States, cancels elections on election day, there are almost two months before the terms expire to reschedule voting. Most of the governors and state senators also have expiring terms, so they have plenty of incentive to make elections happen one way or another.
8.1: Hence "in large part". Lots of other people are fucking up.
8.2: I don't see how this isn't a failure mode common to governments democratic and non.
Here's how. Comparison. And why is the US responding so badly? Because it's run by an authoritarian who hires for loyalty and fires for being told bad news. Trump fawns over dictators because he wants to be one and acts like one wherever he can.
Whether coronavirus and responses will help or hurt Trump for re-election is too soon to call. All of the fuckups to date and in the future will have no electoral effect if, some time before November, Trump is the president who presided over the end of the worst of coronavirus in the United States. That was W. Bush's position in relation to 9/11 and the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars in 2004: His fuckups caused lots of death and destruction, but the worst seemed to be past by election day.
No one but me is ghoulish enough to say it, but it does seem like COVID 19 will differentially kill Republican voters. Both because it kills the old and male and also because Republicans aren't taking it seriously.
I was that ghoulish like, at least 24 hours ago.
The next person in line is the President Pro Tem of the Senate, currently Charles Grassley of Iowa. Grassley's term in the Senate does not expire, although his term as President Pro Tem arguably does expire.
I think Grassley continues to be the President Pro Te unless he himself expires, what with being a full 8 years older than Bernie Sanders (McConnell then has seniority), or the Republicans lose the majority.
I was thinking it would have been nice if this had hit Italy while Salvini was still interior minister. But maybe he could have played the hero, who knows. It's been pointed out that the first quarantine in the north was sort of what the Liga used to say it wanted.
12: There's a doctor whose twitter feed I follow who said. Yay on Telehealth reimbursements. BUT watching them all stand so close together and touch the podium in the same place made him want to take a hand sanitizer shower.
No one but me is ghoulish enough to say it, but it does seem like COVID 19 will differentially kill Republican voters. Both because it kills the old and male and also because Republicans aren't taking it seriously.
Have had this thought.
The flu already hits Republicans disproportionately because they're less likely to get the vaccine.
9: Interesting. It's only a tradition that the most senior senator of the majority party is elected President Pro Tem.* They don't even have to elect a Senator. In the unlikely event that there is no election and the remaining Senators, majority democratic, elect a new President Pro Tem, they will be in the unique position of knowing they are choosing the President of the United States. Leahy, born in 1940, may not be interesting in taking on that job. Whatever Leahy's preference, I hope the senators would have the sense to elect someone younger. Maybe Joe Biden if he is in good health, or his VP choice. But if they might want to pick one of their own, why not Warren?
*And a potentially disastrous one. If the 9/11 attack had taken place a few months earlier, and the planes intended for the Capital and white house had hit their targets while W., Cheney, and speaker Hastert were on premises, the President Pro Tem would almost certainly have survived since he was in a nursing home for most of the year and rarely got to the Senate. That was Strom Thurmond, then 98.
It's only a tradition that the most senior senator of the majority party is elected President Pro Tem.* They don't even have to elect a Senator.
I believe Prince Harry is not otherwise engaged.
I think Grassley continues to be the President Pro Te unless he himself expires
President Pro Te, President Pro Me...
Compare Kerala's handling of Nipah, another bat virus; compare China's handling of African swine fever.
Also, what is it with bats? And all those well-meaning naturalisty people who told me bats aren't dangerous, that's just superstition, they won't try to bite you or anything were fucking lying. They won't bite you but they will piss on your food and condemn you to slow horrific death.
Loads of people are ghoulish enough to say 14, but I predict there will be at most zero net effect harming Republicans in the election, and a lot of downsides I can imagine. It's just not worth fantasizing about how Covid-19 is going to kill your enemies, ffs. Maybe if you truly don't take it seriously. I'm a humorless grump today.
27 The only reason I haven't entertained that thought isn't because I wouldn't take ghoulish joy in it, I totally would. It's because I am beyond all optimism.
And also, I'd like my foolish parents to live.
I don't know what number Nate Silver would say but still a significant chance Trump dies from it. If 50% of the country gets it he almost certainly will. Whether all the extraordinary medical interventions he has access to will save him, I don't know. So then does Pence win on the sympathy vote?
It's not the disease which will finish him. It's the economy, stupid. That is going to be so fucked.
30: I would think so, but there have been a few forecasts of high catch-up growth, like 8% or more, in the third quarter of this year. I doubt that will happen, but if it does, I'd expect the incumbent party in November to do very well.
Leahy, born in 1940, may not be interesting in taking on that job. Whatever Leahy's preference, I hope the senators would have the sense to elect someone younger.
Elizabeth Warren.
Oh, I see you already had that idea. Sorry, was excited at the possiblity.
31 I suspect the idea that any forecasting for Q3/Q4 is meaningful today is laughable.
I should imagine that even if there is high catch-up growth, that will be 8% (or whatever) growth off a base reduced much more than that, and millions more people will be struggling and angry in November than in January.
An all mail election favors Trump.
That's my thought. I don't want men to see their wives vote.
23. Disqualified by not being a citizen. His missus might step up if asked.
I thought she was born of the moose. That's the only reason we haven't had President Shatner.
Historical footnote: One of the reasons for The "natural born citizen" requirement for presidents in the U.S. Constitution was to make sure that none of the nine sons of King George III tried to run for the post. Still applies to Harry.
I think they also wanted to fuck Alexander Hamilton because of the future earworms.
He just called it the Chinese virus! Jeez.
41: I did not know that. Shows a commendable degree of caution about the loyalties of Americans.
43 I wonder if their research shows that this is necessary to get cultists to take it seriously. It's not the common cold, it's an attack!
There's also the question of whether Fox nation will be deader than the rest of the country . . . .as much as I dislike them, I find this upsetting to think about.
Someone got a picture of the script he was reading yesterday and it has "Corona" crossed off and replaced with "Chinese" on the page. I wonder if anyone has checked if the handwriting looks like Trump's or Miller's.
47: it looked like the typical Trump sharpie script.
All so utterly disheartening. I did not sufficiently leave enough room in my personal rage reserve for an event of this magnitude.
The Saudi-Russian rage war has pushed prices way down, so you can stock up cheaply if you move fast. At a profit, even.
Given US inequality, my guess is lack of access to adequate health care among poorer and less white communities will outweigh in terms of actual impact whatever differential rate of initial infection there might be along political party lines.
OTOH, if the hospitals are swamped money won't help the people late in the queue.
Of course, in an efficient market, you'd auction off the ventilator places every morning and people who couldn't keep up their payments would be evicted. Wait! That's twentieth century analogue libertarianism. We're better than that. With smartphones we could hold the auctions hourly. We could open a futures market! And it would be great for unemployment, too, because of all the people who'd be needed to plug in and out the patients at the end of every auction, and the security guards to keep the relatives under control ...
And the top 5% of the guards and porters could be rewarded with safety equipment!
Of course you'd have to evaluate their performance afresh every day.
Or run it like broadband. Your flow rate gets artificially throttled back unless you upgrade to the premium plan.
The mask has a chip in it which can regulate its efficiency as the central servers decide?
Or were you thinking ventilators? Thought leadership demands that we pursue both strategies
No chips available, they're all imported. At first the nurses will object to closing the valves, but they'll get used to it.
In the latest iteration of "we are living in a J. G. Ballard novel" apparently a bunch of rich folks from LA and Seattle fled to their vacation homes to Sun Valley, Idaho which is now a coranavirus hotspot. They have a single ICU unit.
JPJ, I hope your son remains safe whether he gets to Canada or not. Though I too would rather he be in Canada than greater NYC.
I'm not worried about myself. I'm keeping to myself fairly easily. But my worries are (perhaps) displaced into worrying for my younger sister. She's a physician at a public hospital. Her specialty is infectious diseases and she's been busy planning and prepping across the hospital's departments. I know she's very competent, with experience with epidemics, but I do worry.
59: Somewhat similarly see this on Colorado ski country. In that instance the rich people are now gone but the virus is roaring along among inhabitants many of whom are service workers in tourism industries. (The resorts closed all seasonal housing and kicked out their large temporary workforce which is another kind of problem.)
Also see this from NYC : As U.S. authorities scrambled to ramp up the nation's capacity to test for coronavirus last week, at least 100 executives and other New Yorkers of means had easy access to testing, according to two sources familiar with the activities of a little-known medical service catering to the affluent.
Georgia seems to have had an effective response
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1241037820124372997?s=21
My USian-centric first thought was: "No way!" And I was partly right.
Disqualified by not being a citizen. His missus might step up if asked.
Forgive me if I'm 'Muricansplaining -- you all are so shockingly well informed about American politics that you may well know this -- but the requirement isn't just citizenship, it's "natural born" citizenship,* which is perhaps justified by having saved us from the specter of President Schwarzenegger during the height of his popularity.
*With a founding fathers loophole for those who were already citizens when the Constitution was adopted.
The other Georgia's entire legislature should be self-quarantining.
Anyway, I think I have worked out the ventilator plans, because it is important to segment your market properly:
Premiership level -- 99% uptime guaranteed; unlimited oxygen.
Championship level -- 90% uptime guaranteed; technical support from a real person within 2 hours.
League One level -- 80% uptime guaranteed; technical support guaranteed within 24 ; add on packages available.
Gold Exclusive -- technical support by email. Add on packages available starting at $100/litre
Value plus -- 50% uptime GUARANTEED. Add on packages from as low as $350/litre
... and so on.
90% uptime guaranteed; technical support from a real person within 2 hours.
I laughed at this (and then felt slightly guilty about laughing).
*With a founding fathers loophole for those who were already citizens when the Constitution was adopted.
Literally grandfathered in.
If a time traveller had come to at the height of Arnie's popularity and said, "Kraab, me old mucker, it's up to you: in 2017 the new President will be either Schwarzenegger or Trump. You have 30 seconds to decide." I don't think you'd have had a problem choosing.
Schwarzenegger is obviously the far better choice for any responsible office. But if a time traveler comes and gives me any message that involves Schwarzenegger, I'm grabbing guns and food and getting out.
71: Vote for me if you want to live.