Hungary is officially a dictatorship!
Speaking of Saudi Arabia and the oil price, I was wondering how Aramco's newly IPOed share price was doing. Remarkably well! Only about 10% down from before the price war with Russia and the global collapse in demand for oil. Handy to have an investor base that the government can compel to hold on to their shares, which they were compelled to buy in the first place.
Fucking the aristos is kind of a necessary step in state-building. But I don't think that's what this is.
So the Johnson government is all "Nah, it's nothing, pull your socks up" but also postpones local elections a year?
Re: the stimulus bill. I'm surprised at how little discussion I've seen in the US about doing what the UK and Germany and some others have done, namely subsidising furloughed workers. It all seems to be about bolstering unemployment insurance or otherwise getting money into the hands of the unemployed, rather than keeping people employed in the first place. Hence, in part, the unprecedented new jobless claims last week (and presumably this week and many weeks to come). It doesn't really bespeak a strategy to put the economy on ice during a relatively short lockdown of a few months to bounce back quickly after.
There is a part of the bill that aims to keep people employed: a few hundred billion in loans to small businesses, which are forgiven if the business maintains its level of employees. This will take longer to go into effect than the unemployment benefits.
Apparently a major factor shaping the kinds of relief offered by the U.S. was the existence or non-existence of data. $1200 per person, plus enhanced unemployment benefits, is easier for our government to do quickly than funneling money through employers, since it doesn't have sufficient data to determine how much to each employer.
Also, the ridiculous-looking unemployment chart is completely accurate: The economy fell off a cliff inside of one week when everything shut down. The total loss of jobs, so far, is much less than the 2008 recession, although that will change. Anything that made the numbers look less severe would be a sop to Trump's call for making the numbers look better. We's already doing that with the diagnosis numbers; credit to the economics team for apparently not going there.
Happy to see the fall of KSA over this, less happy to see that Iraq based their current budget on $56 a barrel with a still projected deficit of $45 million.
Wonder what their projected deficit is now.
I was going to post 1, with the same description even.
The bill is good in some ways, much better than it might have been, will help significantly, still has some bad parts, still not enough, but room to build on. Some help for individuals, decent help for state and local governments, small businesses, hospitals, the needful research agencies like NIH, too much help on too easy terms for big corps.
This bill has been cast in the framework of stimulus, so like ARRA but more so, get lots of cash out so people can spend and governments don't cut, whereas I suspect Tooze's framing is better, that we should be putting the economy in deep freeze, keep the skeleton food-and-utilities functions going, substitute for all payrolls with debt. Very different concept.
Does anyone else keep reading the fourth link in the OP as "Prostrates are fucked!"?
. $1200 per person, plus enhanced unemployment benefits, is easier for our government to do quickly than funneling money through employers, since it doesn't have sufficient data to determine how much to each employer.
Ah, because the US doesn't do PAYE, right?
We do pay taxes every month, if you are getting paid by a company that's run professionally. Then at the end of the year we do our taxes again because it might have been a misestimate based on misestimating your number of deductions or dependents or income. However a lot of people, more and more nowadays, get paid semi-randomly and have to estimate the taxes on their own and we are supposed to pay those estimated taxes 4 times a year/
those of us over here are provincial and small-minded
Do we need to have an actual discussion of this topic? I sure am tired of the sniping.
My mind is the consistency of hobgoblins.
No no, I'm serious. This has been a source of low-grade tension for quite a while and I'd like to know if there's any way to resolve it. This may be a sign of my own small-mindedness.
The resolution is me leaving.
Wouldn't it be great if there were a benign liberal hegemon with the resources and moral credibility to deal with all this?
I think this is a reference to the role the United States played in the international system from 1947 through 2016. I think we are at the start of an unfolding disaster, but this doesn't processed well in America for sound reasons (e.g. becausethe problems faced by groups in America right now are pretty consuming and because as bad as things are likely to get after, America's period of hegemony was objectively shitty for lots of peoples) and less sound reasons (e.g. wishful thinking about after Trump when no result of the 2020 election will put us back to where we were in October 2015). There's no getting around the fact that the collective 'we' of the American electorate has gone for "America Firsterism" and that dictatorships have very correctly taken this for a green light.
|| What, you wonder, did the US Supreme Court do today? One decision; opinion by Sotomayor, dissent by Thomas. A maritime case, deciding who is liable for the clean-up of a 2004 oil spill in the Delaware River. More particularly, the question is about what duty the standard maritime contract's 'safe berth' clause imposes on the charterer: can they just exercise ordinary diligence (to avoid there being things like 9 ton abandoned anchors in the path of the ship) or are they basically just on the hook if the berth ends up not being safe. It's the latter!
Also they accepted cert in a case involving a strange twist of procedural law. Guy gets abused by FBI agents. Sues under the federal tort claims act. Court finds that the agents are immune under state law, which is how you figure out liability under the FTCA, and dismisses the case. Here's the twist: failing to meet an element under the FTCA means that the court never had subject matter jurisdiction. Ordinarily, a dismissal for lack of subject matter jurisdiction isn't going to be preclusive if you can find a claim you can bring in a court that will hear it. So the guy pursues a Bivens claim. District Court says 'nice try but no.' Sixth Circuit says 'hey this checks out -- reversed.' Tune in next fall? |>
The German and EU governments were all austerity scolds when it was Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, but not Germany that were suffering.
And I guess the resistance to mutualizing the debt means: we're still not going to help Greece, et al out. If the EU unravels Germany will be one of the primary causes.
This has been a source of low-grade tension for quite a while and I'd like to know if there's any way to resolve it.
Oh, well I do just think it's a situation where, given where all the FPPs and most of the commenters live, the United States has sort of home court advantage in all the conversations. For Americans, we're less provincial than most. For commenters, I'm probably more provincial than most. But I certainly can understand that my cast and framing would cause sarcasm abroad on occasion.
(But I also don't take it very seriously when Mossy gets grumpy because I know he loves us.)
The resolution is me leaving.
I'd be sad if you left, Moss. I hope you don't.
5: Ginger, I think that US employers were opposed to a pass-through to employees to keep them on the payroll because they don't want to have any obligation to keep them on after the crisis passes. They would rather lay them off and rehire afterwards, preferably at lower wages and higher work loads. They are no doubt anticipating a buyer's market for labor when the US Senate jerks the rug out from under workers at the earliest possible moment. Right after the November elections would be my guess.
Plus, employer-paid health insurance.
Seconding 24 / 25, I very much appreciate MC's comments, even if I don't always read the links.
I like having Mossy around, and like the presence of ex-US perspectives in general.
It seems that there's a lot less argument and sniping here than some years ago-- some disagreement and mockery is fine with me.
I think as a general rule, we should all own our less-than-optimal tendencies and not be defensive. (Or, alternatively, we should acknowledge our flaws and work on fixing them.)
So LK should therefore be comfortable with their alleged provincialism, and Mossy should be okay with the perception that they are a scold on this subject.
I myself am fine with my provincialism, and am completely comfortable with my tendency to regard my interests as superior to all of yours.
"And I guess the resistance to mutualizing the debt means: we're still not going to help Greece, et al out"
How much Greek debt was forgiven in 2012, do you think? Percentage of total or an absolute amount, either will do. Don't Google it. I'm interested to see what you think actually happened.
31.2: I think that's the wrong metric. Greece was unable to pay its debt, while Florida (for example) was able to cover its debt because of direct transfer payments and reasonably responsible monetary policy. Greece was fiscally and monetarily strangled to the point where it wasn't going to pay its debt in any event -- wanna buy some Greek bonds at face value in 2008? -- so debt forgiveness was not some great act of charity.
For the sake of playing along -- and not because I think I have a clue as to the answer -- I'll say that something more than half of Greek debt was forgiven, but I'm not persuaded there is a real distinction here between "forgiven" and "would have been defaulted on regardless."
12: To expand on what ned said in 13: the biggest part in the US failing to be PAYE-like is that if a person has multiple employers or income sources, there's AFAICT no communication from the taxing authority back to the employers of how much tax the employee has paid through other employers. It's even worse if they have investment income. So there's estimation all around, and hence Americans being so excited/dejected by an end-of-tax-year refund/bill. If you're sufficiently bad at estimating in your favor, the IRS and some state governments will force you to pay "estimated taxes," where you have to pay a certain amount of your tax bill (determined as a function of last year's) quarterly.
The PAYE system is nice, and while I'm new at this, I'm getting the impression the bigger take-home paychecks early in the tax year have a similar psychological effect to getting a tax refund.
Anyway, with some effort, I've figured out how to be provincial and small minded, but for two places. Mossy is great and a boon (except when he gets too exasperated for the rest of us failing to meet his high standards), I didn't think heebie was sniping because she doesn't really do that but sometimes we're a bit shitty unnecessarily here, and quarantine makes everybody tense.
Oh jeez, my thoughts in my am when I'm not drunk but we need to be kinder to one another and LK's not wrong and MC please don't leave. I love and cherish you all, you fucking reprobates.
Sorry for being a dick, everyone. I only just now got 16, which is good.
30.1 hard agree, don't wish mossy gswift or others with whom have tangled/whom i've displeased to go away, but dammit i'm not going to type properly on my phone for you lot 🤣🤣🤣 will continue on generally as before, all will hopefully either ignore or engage with me as their desires and better natures dictate.
I've been thinking for a few days that I should drink myself silly one of these evenings. Maybe later in the week. Instead, having finished Picard, I've been watching ST: Discovery. I've seen worse. And reading The Mirror and the Light. And worrying about our step-grandniece, who has found a place to perch in northern Saskatchewan.
I think I was envisioning a discussion about whether the balance of content -- more personal, more wonky, more geopolitical, more cock jokes -- could/should be tweaked at all, and whether some people were frustrated, many people were frustrated, only one person was frustrated, whatever. To me it does seem like a legitimate question to raise, rather than irreducibly pointless bickering, hence my invitation to talk it out. I value Mossy's posts across the board, and I have no big complaints. I kinda feel this derail was not productive, and so I'm sorry. We can now move on to talking about how alarming the petrostates article was.
Any other enthusiasts for the new Jim Carrey/ Michel Gondry show Kidding? I'm absolutely absorbed. Vicious depiction of student housing in Columbus.
It seems that there's a lot less argument and sniping here than some years ago
You have a gift for understatement.
Even if you discount Halford, we had a lot more really stupid arguments.
39: I'm online friends with the actual kid's mom but have been hoping it will show up on some streaming platform where I won't have to pay. I'd like to think I'd maybe do more for a real-life friend but dunno.
30.1 hard agree, don't wish mossy gswift or others with whom have tangled/whom i've displeased to go away
Do we even really tangle that much? I definitely don't have an impression or memory of you being shitty to me or anything.
I try not to make disagreements personal. I might occasionally lapse and give some snark if I'm getting accused of being a troll or racist.
I guess I don't remember that. It's been a while.
I've been thinking for a few days that I should drink myself silly one of these evenings. Maybe later in the week.
Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today.
42: I don't know if you were around, but the arguments used to be much stupider. There was a 200 comment goalpost-mover over whether it's elitist to dress up for the opera.
48: Gilded Age.
39: Yes!
38: I think that's totally a conversation worth having. A FPP even.
37. Please no spoilers for the latest Mantel! On order but hasn't arrived yet. We watched "The Stranger" the last couple of nights. I have rarely seen such a thick plot. Really liked it though. Also following "Dispatches from Elsewhere."
We just started watching the BBC "Wolf Hall". Really pretty good.
50: actually snorted with laughter, thank you! ha! have not yet been able to read it, yesterday was first day i could concentrate enough to read something not work-related, work keeps on eating up all my available mental energy not otherwise consumed by fever-headache-feeling generally crappy. but last night i read a super enjoyable short article in the lrb about 16 c roman infrastructure.
51: i loved it! may watch again. rare instance of adaptation being wonderfully related but not slavishly so to original, adding its own texture. randomly - saw rylance once at the market here, two summers ago?, better half spotted him, i added a silly mushroom top hat onto him mentally and indeed it was him! contemplating the fruit at a sadly no longer extant farm (they retired, had excellent citrus). i particularly loved claire foy, she is extremely good at nervous energy.
We just started watching the BBC "Wolf Hall"
I was mildly interested in reading this book but concerned that it had a lot of words.
But I could totally watch it as a TV show. Good to know that exists.
Unhinged Anne Boleyn is the best Anne Boleyn.
55: Head and shoulders above the Anne Boleyn in The Mirror & the Light.
Well, head at least.
||
using a child as proof in an adultery case is more common than most people think|>
I would have thought it was very common. I mean, there's an entire genre of TV built around paternity tests.
It's really unusual for gay couples.
Even more common than that, GY.