Can I be first again? We're fine. Even survived sort of participating in the zeder. The singing! Oy!

I sure am sick of staring at my own face on zoom, and also my weight is creeping up.

(I almost made that into a separate post but decided it was too privileged and whiny for that status.)

Also I'm having trouble with my Adderall - it's always given me a headache after a few days, and so I'd skip a dose. But now it seems like I'm getting increasingly sensitized, and smaller and smaller doses are giving me a headache, and it's a major bummer.

And teaching online is all the things I'm terrible at without the meds.

You normally have a pharmacist in class?

Well the internet in my apartment went out a couple of hours ago so there goes my plan to Skype with family and then watch Kingdom on Netflix

I kind of hate my job, but I don't hate staying employed. In a non pandemic context my plan was to head for another career path towards the latter half of this year, though that might mean staying in the same position while taking classes for a while.

I do like my family and am glad we're all keeping alive so far. No regularly scheduled hospital visits for a few more weeks now. A few of those are unavoidable.

Nothing health related here.* We went into town for the howling -- parked across the street from friends, howled with them and their neighborhood.

CSKT have decided they don't want visitors at this time, so they've closed all outdoor recreation to non-members and non-locals. The right call, but this one stings. Also the National Bison Range closed -- all the indoor stuff was already closed, but I guess they really wanted people to go somewhere else.

* Well, I am getting alarmingly fat. Guess I should do something about that.

A city helper-to-helpee match program sent me someone nearby to check in on, make deliveries for, etc. Should be fulfillng.

And amazingly, Oakland just announced a program to shut off a huge network of neighborhood streets to car traffic, solving my jogging problem at a stroke. Now I just need to actually go out.

Signing in from Norf Lunnon. We're all right; knifecrime's down.

9 is amazeballs, am so thrilled. am drafting letter to the relevant powers in san francisco to harangue about this, we won't have a better opportunity for mass installation of bike infrastructure, and when we can go back to work everyone who can bike needs to so that muni isn't too crowded for those that can't bike. the before-time normal amount of riders during the morning commute would restart the plague within 24 hours.

the pictures of los angeles without all the crap in the air are beautiful and sort of shaming. they graphically illustrate why a 48 hour or more trip there always fucks up my lungs.

continue to improve but god it is slow going, the slightest "exertion," like trying to work a normal day, brings back the fever and exhaustion. who knows what the hell i had but dammit it is sticky sticky sticky.

I'm getting low on weed, and the pot shops across the state line are all closed.

I've been drinking more but snacking significantly less, so I think it's roughly net even for me so far.

Everyone is having a metabolic adjustment right now, right? Apart from you dedicated exercisers? I would estimate that I could get by, pretty easily, on about 500 quality calories a day, with a few more after a vigorous game of tag. (Sincere apologies if this glib remark is triggering for anyone -- feel free to say so presidentially or otherwise and I will happily STFU about it.) We have not been compounding the problem by baking, however, because the oven broke.

If/when the island finally closes my diet is going to be horrifically boring.

To be honest, I was getting alarmingly fat before the pandemic. I'm going to have to get the bike out today -- we're getting a blizzard tonight, and I don't know when it'll next be this sunny and warm.

Tragically, a quarantine disincentivises shoveling.

I fucking prepped this whole class today centered around a cartoon of myself as alarmingly fat person, then realized I was prepping the wrong book. And you thought you had first world problems.

Everyone is having a metabolic adjustment right now, right? Apart from you dedicated exercisers?

My dedicated-exerciser-self is, alas, one of the casualties of coronavirus. I got a Fitbit for Christmas, and was surprised at how effective the feedback was at keeping me motivated. Now my resting heart rate and weight are drifting back upwards.

Time management has always been a struggle for me, but I had a system worked out where I'd find time to exercise. My work situation really isn't bad at all -- but it's different, and it's really throwing me off.

The need to apologize for your First World Problems is a First World Problem.

Yeah. Me too. I had a lifting schedule and was making gains. I'm bummed about the setback, but not enough to do bodyweight exercise or anything.

I'm not having trouble exercising. I'm just eating too much.

Gov Bullock has just issued an order deeming the Easter Bunny, and other magical creatures, to be essential.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10161754711323682&set=a.10151830622013682

The one part of Christianity I miss is the service the night before Easter (?) that ends with the stripping of the altar and somone reading the Peter betraying Christ (?) passage, and everyone leaving in silence.

When I was a kid I used to have six or hour vespers vigils every Holy Saturday. Mostly standing.

I've been biking almost every day as we've had a span of good weather and otherwise I spend all my waking hours in my basement office. Still a metabolic adjustment as I'm not walking much at all and also my office is near the pantry with the snacks.

24: I think that's the Holy Thursday service where the alter is stripped. The Peter betraying Christ passage gets read Palm Sunday, Holy Thursday, Good Friday, and probably Saturday, but I've never been to that.

I was going to see a doctor about some shin and possible knee problems that put a halt to my hiking but maybe later for that now?

I'm not walking much at all and also my office is near the pantry with the snacks.

That's my experience as well. I'm walking a reasonable amount, but not much more exercise than that. I have much less focus for exercise because focusing on anything takes more effort.

I like Scalzi's joke that the resulting weight gain should be called the "Quaran-fifteen."

I'm not a Christian but I found Rev Coles's Stations of the Cross profoundly moving. This is the second station, worth looking at his feed and seeing them all https://twitter.com/revrichardcoles/status/1248518197743104001?s=21

Fourth Station https://twitter.com/revrichardcoles/status/1248535478690820097?s=21

Still doing fine here. We ended up going to four Zoom seders (one the first night and three the second), but our participation was increasingly marginal.

Like Senor Chang, I am a man who can never die.

I've eaten an impressive amount of Sour Patch Kids during the pandemic. Did you know they make a huge "family-size" bag?

Still healthy out here; as a years long stay at home worker, not a bunch of adjustment. (Though I used to start work a little earlier, in compensation for coworkers who had to commute -- I'm starting right at 8 these days.)

The weather was rainy earlier this week, but it's warming up nicely now. I will grill some Mahi Mahi this weekend -- maybe even as Easter dinner, though that sounds a bit weird to me.

We're doing our annual Good Friday ritual today of eating filet of fish sandwiches from McDonalds and watching Jesus Christ Superstar and getting drunk. It's also M's birthday. His gift didn't arrive, because I think the store I ordered it from is shut down, but I made a chocolate peanut butter cake which I'm congratulating myself on because it took so much preplanning with our limited grocery runs.

Richard Coles's Stations are really something, yes. Cannot too highly recommend.

Ume and I are, or at least I am, eating too much as well. This is partly because she has baked the most delicious hot cross buns; also cake for her mother's birthday. I have been tweaking my crispbread recipes (I think earlier blogged) to fit her slightly smaller oven. So that means making several batches to be cut into different shapes. And we're not taking as much exercise as we should. And we discovered that spinach, bacon, walnuts and mascarpone make a great sauce for the pasta once hoarded for Brexit.

Probably eating less (since I have to do all the cooking instead of having a great work cafeteria) but drinking more. Slight weight loss could easily be lost muscle mass from no longer going to the gym; like Megan I was doing lifting and getting better and liked it, but haven't converted myself to doing anything at home.

Starting to feel seriously bummed out, which is mostly manifesting in getting to the middle of the day and thinking "I don't really deserve food today."

Also, in a mood of despair because I have been asked to blurb a book which is frankly no bloody good,* I resuscitated my Python script from the dear dead summer of 2016 which quantified the right wing propaganda by counting up the mentions of "migrants" and members of the Kardashian family on the Mail front page and fed the results into a spreadsheet. Civilisation was at risk whenever the M/K ratio approached or even exceeded 1.

Right now there are 31 Kardashians, no migrants, 5 mentions of Brexit and 6 of the EU. Also 16 references to breasts; 4 women 'displaying' their bodies; but none are 'revealing' anything, though two are 'Showing Off'. Nine women are 'VERY' something or other. Sadly, none are 'enviable', though 8 are 'braless' and 3 'topless'.
[These figures may not be completely accurate, since they are obtained by scraping the raw code of the site, and some of the Kardashian mentions may be invisible dog whistles aimed at Goohoogle]

* But I cannot, for political reasons, quote my pseud-sake in a similar quandary: "Poet! whoe'er thou art, God damn thee: Go hang thyself and burn thy Mariamne."

See also "Cibber! write all your verses upon glasses / The only way to save them from our arses"

39.1: "Honestly, the book isn't very good, but now isn't the time to be picky."

Also, I'll be thinking of all you guys but I absolutely have to spend less time online and more time with my daughter. I might even try unplugging for the weekend.

Some cheering news: the army field hospital that was set up in Seattle to help with the expected covid19 patient surge was dismantled and returned to the DoD because the anticipated demand never materialized.

I suppose maybe it's only really cheering if you live in Seattle.

Due to a stroke of scheduling luck, I spent last week working at home putting together written documentation of various things. I had vacation scheduled yesterday and today and figured I might as well not work at all. We had the most successful shopping trip today. We got wheat flour, cannelini beans, yeast, AND toilet paper! It only took three stores. We donated blood yesterday. I had pleaded with AJ to go with me (he had a bad experience years ago but is otherwise qualified). After all my hard work convincing and explaining that blood banks were short, the phlebotomist told him there is plenty of supply in our region and that the cancellation of all elective surgeries outweighed the lack of drives and donations!

Maybe 30% of people I saw out at the stores are wearing masks, a mix of cloth and construction. The rest seem unfazed. Detroit's major hospital chain ran out of body bags yesterday. The death rate looks like 5% of those tested, but testing is very limited. It feels like a world away, though, from here. Being home let me see how much people here seem like their quality of life has somehow improved. I'm anxious and unsettled, but the neighborhood (lots of retirees and young families) seems to have so many folks happily walking, playing with their kids, gardening, etc. that it's a bit surreal.

The stay-at-home order has been extended until the end of April, with new additions. Apparently, folks were allowed to visit neighbors before? And folks are no longer permitted to go back and forth to second homes; they have to pick one. Probably a good call given the amount of travel as the weather gets nice and school/work are so flexible.

Oh I've a good family recipe for cannellini beans made tonight

I made it tonight. Sorry, drunk and no WiFi

43.2:

Just went shopping this afternoon, and compared to my last trip (10 days ago) it's gone from about 1/3 of people wearing some kind of mask to more or less everyone.

44 . . . Share? Mine are going into this: Sausage, tomato, cannellini bean sheet pan bake (Vegetarian sausage)

It was funny that there is a clear hierarchy of beans at the grocery store. Cannellini>Black>Pinto>Great Northern>Red kidney>Garbanzo.

Garbanzo beans and pinto beans are about the only ones I eat.

the phlebotomist told him there is plenty of supply in our region and that the cancellation of all elective surgeries outweighed the lack of drives and donations!

This makes me feel a little better. I've been feeling like I should go donate, but I'm too worried about bringing something home to Kraabniece #1. I know the risk is small, but the potential consquences are too great.

Our zoom seder was ok. Not great, but a very close facsimile of the real thing on the other side of the camera: they were running 90 minutes late; one of the teenage twins refused to even come to the table; the other sat out of camera range and wouldn't read anything; the divorced-but-somewhat-amicable parents did some sniping at one another. On our side of the camera, we did no sniping and the food was pretty good.

I found out our local gourmet shop has same day curbside pickup. I ordered a case of wine and a case of beer and a box of wine. Pickup was a total mess. They're in a residential area and have no parking lot, cars were lined up blocking the street and people were crowded on the sidewalk way too close together. Took 25 minutes before I got stuff loaded.

True gourmets have butlers.

Given up trying to order groceries online in NYC. Even if a site shows an available pick-up or delivery time, it'll turn out that half the stuff you ordered isn't available, and you'll find out only 20 min before the slot. I just try to go to the bodega at less busy hours and have changed my diet to suit whatever is available there.

After all my hard work convincing and explaining that blood banks were short, the phlebotomist told him there is plenty of supply in our region and that the cancellation of all elective surgeries outweighed the lack of drives and donations!

Ah, this makes more sense. I made two appointments to give blood and they were both canceled by the Red Cross side. And more appointments for my crappy old A+ blood aren't available for weeks.

(Annoyingly, even when I'm logged in and they have my blood type in my profile, the appointment booker aggressively pushes donations only ABs can make.)

I am not eating all that much because I'm constantly cooking for other people, which feels like it should count, but I know I have to so I can stay healthy and so I'm working on it. The doctor's office has to write that I'm BMI-obese on my paperwork but they didn't even bother saying anything about it and I hadn't gained any weight since my last appointment a year before and then lost three pounds in a week of sickness, and I guess holding steady is plenty good enough given the year I've had. Haven't been overdrinking because I've been sick, but it sure sounds nice. I'm still just totally exhausted all the time and feeling pretty frayed. At some point it will get better and I'm doing surprisingly little blowing up at the kids, but I know how cranky and angry I am. I'm very grateful the pharmacy 24-hour drivethrough has stayed open and you can even order some groceries and other items through that, which is fantastic for the absolute basics. I'm going to call the doctor tomorrow because Nia is still having sinus headaches almost daily and stomachaches (possibly because she's stress-eating absolutely everything in the house, which is understandable but incredibly annoying for the person who purchases things and wants them to last or be available for ingredients) but the other two seem okay healthwise. Lee keeps amping up Mara's anxiety when she thinks she's improving things. She's a big believer in the idea that telling people not to worry is the most effective response and is slowly picking up evidence that it hasn't actually solved the problem, which I'm sure she believes is my fault. See? I'm a total grouch.

49: It will probably make you feel even less guilty if I tell you their procedures for sanitizing things and masks were not really making me feel very comfortable while we were there. We had to remove our masks for two temperature checks, and they were kind of wiping down donor info sheets and computers and kind of wearing masks (but taking them on and off when they stepped away), plus still expected us to have snacks/juice. I would not rely on that in an area with higher infection rates than here (very, very low even if assuming only 5% of sick people are getting tests).

I ordered beer from a local microbrewery and it arrived about 90 min after (web) order. I'm impressed.

So mostly good. Definitely have to do something to replace exercise I'm no longer getting - past the "eh, see what happens" point I think.

I bought an exercise bike. My parents mocked me for this, but honestly the ability to get a little exercise without leaving the house is much more palatable than the leave the house variety and I've been doing it some. Having typed which, I'm sure I'll stop completely. Also yeah I am drinking more. We have gone through a surprising amount of gin, I have to say. It's kind of hard to be indifferent to gin right now. Gin, you minx in time of tsurris...

The main thing nagging at me, other than MAYBE WE ARE ALL DOOMED, is that I don't want to go out for quarters but I'm going to need to do laundry soon and since we live in this stupid place where nobody who didn't personally invent a way for phones to take credit card payments can afford to live like an adult, laundry requires quarters.

"The perfect book for covid era reading."

"When one thinks of covid reading, what can one say but 'This book'"

Not dead yet. Today was awful, but only for stupid work reasons combined with the fact that I don't talk to humans outside of work meetings anymore.

I keep having these dreams full of intense shouting hatred for my family. Which is strange, because they are blessedly far away. I wake up and say to myself "You live alone". Hatred no longer required.

I'm out of pot and it's too late to bother getting drunk. This was poor planning on my part.

I was thinking about going hiking, but there's some naked guy running around stabbing people. Doesn't sound like good social distancing, at all.

Now that work is a bit more calm, it would be the perfect time to try edibles but it turns out they are illegal.

62: Yikes.

61,63. Gil Scott Heron's "I'm New Here" has incredibly rich-sounding organ and orchestral backgrounds. Also lyrically really rich, quite a record.

What's really frustrating is that weed doesn't come with seeds anymore.

That's what happens when you let Big Agro into your weed, man.

Jeez if there's a naked guy stabbing people I'd have hoped for a picture but WHATEVER, Missoulian.

It may be time for that moment every other year where I try 50/50 CBD or whatever they tell me is not going to make me feel like time is moving uncomfortably and everyone is waiting til I'm out of the room to say something mean about me. Honestly drinking is just so much better but drinking is (part of) why I'm fat.

Gin, you minx in time of tsurris...

New mouseover

One of the consolations about sheltering in place as part of a progressive religious community which has had to move to online worship the last few weeks, is that I can offer the opportunity to share in our worship to imaginary friends anywhere in the world who may not be able to worship as usual this Easter season. If you are missing an opportunity to be part of an Easter service this week, you are welcome to watch ours, pre-recorded at home or locations with social distancing by our clergy and staff, at https://www.edenucc.com/sermons. Each sermon starting with March 22nd should have an embedded link to that week's service, a link to the online worship bulletin, and the text of the sermon. The Easter service should be up by Sunday morning, Pacific time. There's also supposed to be an Easter egg hunt link for the kids.

As far as who we are, from the web site home page: Eden Church, founded in 1865, is an LGBTQIA+ Open & Affirming Congregation and a Sanctuary Congregation of the United Church of Christ.

There's a lot more info about the church and what we are doing around the web site, including our work with the local Hispanic community over the last several years.

Meanwhile, the service described in 24 & 27 is a Tenebrae service, from the word for "shadows" or "darkness", of which our Maundy Thursday service is an example. Normally it would be done from a big table near the altar, with each participant extinguishing a candle after their reading, until the sanctuary is left in darkness. This year, we had to do that part on a Zoom meeting, which you can see from the Maundy Thursday sermon link if you are interested.

On that projections website, the estimated deaths by August 4 (for Maryland) is now 1/4 of what it was 2 days ago. Hopefully the modelers know what they're doing.

The new types of glue don't make them loopy now.

I'm old enough to have put together models using the sniffable glue. Is it still sold?

Probably, but I'd rather not google it.

We're having a howling blizzard this morning, so probably no naked stabbing.

the ability to get a little exercise without leaving the house is much more palatable

If you have 500 bucks or so to spare a trap bar and a set of plates doesn't take much space. Maybe the single greatest lift you can do for overall strength. You can also do farmer carries with it.

https://www.amazon.com/HulkFit-Olympic-Lifting-1000-Pound-Capacity/dp/B07FCFK2R3

https://www.newyorkbarbells.com/rubberplates.html

70: I had forgotten that you were UCC. My sister's church is doing online services too of course, but even though she continues to improve, I don't think she'll be leading it. I think it's been three weeks since I left the 2nd floor of our house. But someone was nice enough to cook me a patty melt earlier this week, so I'm not craving the red meat quite as much. Man alive, though! I really, really wish I could still drink. And that I could drink at a bar too of course. Yesterday I had to "call in" because my right foot was in excruciating pain. I don't think it was gout this time, just over-relying on that foot. Even with the considerable amount of weight that I've lost, it still is probably too much to put on one ankle all the time.

I'm feeling very lucky in that hardly anyone I know seems to be in truly desperate straits right now. A lot of my friends are helping with free food deliveries, etc. Thankfully, our public health system is a lot more up to the task than in some other states we could mention. Working from home is still kind of annoying. Thankfully, I've been getting mostly internal calls, 'cause the baby boomers are not acquitting themselves very well when it comes to speaking respectfully to customer service people. I understand that everyone's under a lot of stress, but that doesn't excuse being a total dick to people on the phone. In fact, it's the people who are acknowledging the COVID19 stress who are usually the nicest, while the no doubt Republican virus denialists are sublimating it all into anti-customer service rage.

70: at the churches I've been to that do Tenebrae, they usually do it on the Wednesday of a Holy Week and not in place of the Maundy Thursday liturgy.

I think I would feel like a real jerk making delivery couriers deliver weights. Tempting, though, I was doing trap lifts in the gym before this started.

All well with us over here - and looking at the numbers, it seems that the UK has finally peaked. Day-to-day increase in new cases per day and deaths per day has been gradually trending down in percentage terms, and should dip into negative territory from tomorrow (new cases) and from Tuesday (deaths). But of course this is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but at most the end of the beginning.

Do it! Their gyms are closed too. They need the workout. Having a trap bar and a set of these has been a lifesaver.

https://patmcnamara.myshopify.com/

This is the middle of an interminable middle.

This is promising.

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-COVID-19-treatment-shows-100-percent-survival-rate-preliminary-data-624058/amp?__twitter_impression=true

83: Six patients seems like a pretty limited sample size, and to say that they survived so far is a rather qualified success.

Not only have all the patients survived, according to Pluristem, but four of them showed improvement in respiratory parameters and three of them are in the advanced stages of weaning from ventilators.

On the other hand, the results -- and the credulous article in the Jerusalem Post -- have led elsewhere to some genuinely dramatic results

I can't get a handle on all these optimistic predictions. I know this wasn't easy, but I'm still braced for it to get much worse, and this makes it sound like that's not going to happen?!

Fingers crossed, don't be a big debbie downer like pf.

I'm also curious about the antibiotic thing. Trump got mocked a bunch for bringing up antibiotics but the clinical trials starting here are hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. I wonder if anecdotal evidence is coming in or something.

https://attheu.utah.edu/facultystaff/researchers-from-intermountain-healthcare-and-university-of-utah-health-launch-two-vital-covid-19-clinical-trials-to-test-effectiveness-of-drugs/

87: Trump got mocked because he put the weight of the presidency behind a treatment supported by insufficient evidence. There is general agreement that hydroxychloroquine is an appropriate subject of study -- because of, yes, anecodotal evidence.

"What have you got to lose" is the motto of con men promoting bogus treatments for grave illnesses, and Trump was rightly roasted for saying it -- even if, down the road, hydroxychloroquine turns out to be a miracle cure. Science is superior to bullshit, even if a bullshitter coincidentally comes up with something correct.

85-86: I try not to be a big ol' Debbie Downer, and I, too, am surprised by the optimism coming from credible sources. But let us remember that the optimism is a measure of the effectiveness of the drastic measures taken, and not evidence that we are ready to relax those measures. (Okay, so maybe I am a Debbie Downer. I hope it's not contagious.)

Yeah, it's really easy for me to go down a mental rabbit hole of what it would be like if social distancing has been really effective, and somehow instead of feeling good about that, I'm feeling paralyzed about:
- conversations about which businesses should reopen and who gets to go back to work
- how the vast majority of us still haven't gotten it
- rightwing cries that we shut down the economy for nothing

I somehow want everyone completely safe and for it to be just scary enough everywhere that everyone agrees that it's genuinely scary and real.

conversations about which businesses should reopen and who gets to go back to work

Nate Silver made a good comment recently that putting in the initial social distancing / isolation rules was a fairly straightforward decision, despite all the unknowns, because it was the appropriate response to a fairly wide range of scenarios (e.g., if the base R0 is 2 or 3, of if the number of undetected cases is 5x or 25x the confirmed cases social distancing works and is appropriate for either case), but deciding how to relax the restrictions is trickier because those judgements will depend more on what estimates one uses for those unknowns.

Plus a disproportionate fear that history will somehow hold Trump's response to be competent and sufficient.

OT: I went for a walk and I found $11, which I didn't pick up because it was $6 too many. When I passed the same spot on my way back it was gone.

I WAS WORRIED THERE FOR A MINUTE

92: Eh. People mostly recognize that Bush was an unbelievable disaster. Seems like Trump reputation will end up about like Bush's.

Do they?

Well, he seems to have turned an entire generation off being Republican.

||

John Conway has died, apparently from the coronavirus.

|>

Oh, shit. That's really sad.

I somehow want everyone completely safe and for it to be just scary enough everywhere that everyone agrees that it's genuinely scary and real.

Exactly. (Well, not everyone. I'm perfectly willing to sacrifice Dan Patrick.)

I've ended up with far more rye flour than any other sort, and am furious briefly disgruntled to discover that both the recipes for pure rye bread in my book have the proportions of liquid completely off, though in opposite directions. One would produce a crumbly mass; the other, which I made, a gritty sludge. By the time this one became a usable dough I had kneaded enough to last a fortnight. Here's hoping it tastes all right.

The Conway news has really upset me. I wasn't even really Conway "fan" -- I don't care about recreational mathematics and his professional mathematics wasn't that close to my own interests -- but it just seems so arbitrary.

Arbitrary indeed. How can Tim Brooke-Taylor die and Johnson survive? As a friend just tweeted, it's taken the comedian and left the clown.

Me too - I had weird Conway dreams all night, as though we were friends. I was sick, and wandered out in a delirium and ended up at his house, and he took me in kind bemusement.

I know this wasn't easy, but I'm still braced for it to get much worse, and this makes it sound like that's not going to happen?!

IHME is still showing Massachusetts, Georgia, and Texas two weeks out from peak resource use and peak deaths. That doesn't square with Drum's "By the end of the week, however, pretty much every state should have peaked and should start declining."

I think this is a wise point, and I haven't seen it made elsewhere:

but I think a confounding issue in making these sorts of projections is that we have adapted our response, essentially moving from one curve to another.

If you try to fit everything into one curve, it will look like that curve was flattening organically.

If we moved, essentially, to "flatten the curve," the flattened curve has a later peak than the original curve. Trying to fit everything onto one curve will tend to make it look like we're getting to an inflection point where rate of increase in the number of new cases each day is declining, but that might be an artifact of the adapted response rather than organic progression.

It's from the comment section of the Kevin Drum post.

That clarifies something that's been confusing me: You can't simultaneously have a quick peak and flatten the curve. Flattening the curve delays the peak.

So these articles about a smaller, sooner peak than expected are implying that the entire outbreak is more mild than it should be, or they're wrong and falling for the fallacy that the commenter in 106 describes.

I wonder if there's going to be an Easter Bump in cases from services being held, or if precautions taken with seating and wiping things down will be sufficient.

No. The Bump is associated with Christmas.

109 Not blackouts?

I don't think I have enough alcohol in the house to black out. I'm drinking hardly anything I don't feel better. That's an enormous relief.

110: No. Other sources of light may appear to be extinguished in my presence, but are in fact unaffected. This is merely an effect of contrast, rather like the apparent dimness of a car's headlights when seen in full daylight, for instance.

I knew Conway reasonably well, and have been a surprised by my emotional reaction. I understand all the positive things people are saying, he was brilliant, he produced a lot of truly beautiful things, and his curiosity into everything no matter how complicated or simple was admirable. I spent weeks programming Life on an Apple IIc, and his book "The Symmetries of Things" is one of my favorites. I think before Trump I would have been quite sad. But now my immediate reaction was just "Good, one fewer misogynist racist bully who went through life ignoring all the messes he made because he could rely on other people to clean them up." I'm just so done with that generation of powerful white men who act with complete impunity. I thought maybe that was just a weird initial reaction, but a day later (and several social media feeds full of tributes), nope I'm still basically happy to see him go, even though that's fucked up.

Huh! I had no idea he was that kind of dick, although I 100% recognize that kind of description and feel the same way about that kind of person. That may negate my feelings of sadness.

Euler? Euler? Euler?

It's a football team.

Conway is a little different than some in that his behavior was less premeditated and more just unfiltered. If he were a 13-year old I think I would have really liked him, and a lot of his charm is that even as a grownup he still in many ways was more like a 13-year old. But I just don't have a lot of patience for men who refuse to mature beyond 13 any more.

"Good, one fewer misogynist racist bully who went through life ignoring all the messes he made because he could rely on other people to clean them up."

The set of misogynist, racist bullies who went through life ignoring the messes they made has one less member. And one less member.

Like imagine a 13-year old who doesn't yet understand that you can't just interrupt the speaker during class all the time and make the class entirely about you, but now imagine he's a Princeton professor and the class is being taught by a graduate student.

I have one of those 13-year olds quarantined with me.

There's a prick in my FB feed who is posting a bunch of anecdotes about him and Conway, and this is sort of snapping them into focus for me.

105: MA cases are still accelerating. Today's numbers had a peak percentage of positives from a peak number of tests.

Apropos of nothing in particular, the companion to "Friends don't let friends read David Brooks" is "Good night, sleep tight, don't let the bedbug write."

The Bretbug?

Heh.

123: Hurtful.

Unrelated, this afternoon I had an off duty gig near a Popeyes and decided to get the sandwich that was the supposed end all of chicken sandwiches. What a load of overrated bullshit. Wendy's is better, and the mashed potatoes and biscuit were inferior to KFC. GTFO Popeyes.

Now that work is more calm, I'm thinking that out of an abundance of caution, I should steal a dog.

Hey, what's this "cutting your bangs" thing I hear people talk about. Should I try it?

The rate of taxation varied from 40 to 60 percent, depending on whether peasants provided their own oxen or relied on oxen loaned by the state.

129: I always pictured your hair more...spiked.

Spiked hair is way too high maintenance for my lifestyle.

I use a face wash that seems to have a slight bleaching effect and it means I can't really grow a beard and prevent acne at the same time without looking like my hair is turning white in an unnatural-looking pattern. I'm fine with my hair turning white or gray or whatever, if that's what's really happening, but the effect goes away if I wash my face with regular soap for a while.

I have been thinking about shaving my head on the assumption that it won't look that strange by the time I go to work again. But I'm pretty sure that would look bad too. I got a hair cut one week before the shutdowns began and normally get one every eight weeks, so I guess it's all fine for now.

124: Thank you for the improvement! Will amend in future uses.

I am determined to cut my own bangs within the next week or so. No, it won't be pretty, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Btw, a hair stylist from Brampton, Ontario (Brampton, ON! not exactly a style and fashion hub in the first place...) violates ogged's analogy ban in the most egregious, most delightfully ridiculous, way: 'Did you try to do your own root canal?' Okay, sure. Because attempting to trim my own hair with a pair of nail scissors is just like attempting to perform dental surgery on myself without benefit of anesthesia...

Is it just my biases or can you tell the Chinese curves are cooked just by looking at them?

Those are impossibly flat lines, yes.

Also that really makes it look like New York is clearly the worst hotspot in the world.

127. What kind of defective pays for boneless chicken?

Popeye's is the best nationwide fast food chicken choice, hands down. There are better local options lots of cities, but as far as chains go, Popeyes. The mashed potatoes are on the menu solely to silence the mewling complaints of people who don't know to order dirty rice or red beans and rice.

Popeye's is the best nationwide fast food chicken choice, hands down.

Preach. Also in New Orleans, I learned on my visits there, there are all sorts of other delicious Popeye's items that you don't get nationally. Bring the shrimp po' boys to New York! We are suffering and deserve it.

My checkin: for a few fleeting hours yesterday I thought I was getting a temporary roommate I knew, and was so happy, but now that seems like it's not going to happen. I also found a possible temporary roommate I didn't know, but then my roommate accurately pointed out that doing this with someone I didn't know was just too risky, because no matter how clear I was that it was temporary, I couldn't legally ask them to leave for three months. My concentration is terrible and I may need to drop both classes if I can't address it soon. I am supposed to hear from NYC Health and Hospitals today or tomorrow. I am getting some exercise but not as much as I was and my normal life also included three miles of walking a day. I have maybe gained a pound. I accidentally flashed my unfettered armpit hair at a bunch of people on a call.

It's rainy here and I am kind of unhappy with my work life. The network of worthwhile colleagues seems pretty tenuous in the face of management's recent hires, who aren't bad people, but have completely pointless and limited outlooks on what's worth doing, which is the reason they were hired. It could be worse of course.

Are you taking your ADHD meds??

I quit taking mine over the weekend because of the headaches and it's making my homelife significantly more miserable. I get so cranky and restless and unable to get anything done.

143: yes, but it's not doing anything. I mean, the underlying problem is that I am very lonely and it's hard to do anything but look for distracting stimulus via the internet or television, or go out on a food delivery run. I enjoy work that involves solitary concentration *when I also have sufficient social interaction in my life*. I could try to increase the dose, but I hear via the other place that there are supply chain shortages. I should really try to make a telehealth appointment with a primary care doctor for a renewal now. I also found this online psychiatry place that maybe could prescribe me antidepressants (though not Adderall because they won't prescribe the controlled substances over the internet) but in three weeks I haven't been able to get it together to do the application.

I hear you on it not being the principal problem. That all sounds intense and awful. I'm sorry about all of it.

On one hand it is nice that this happened when I had a rich tech worker roommate (my last roommate was a hostess at a restaurant) and I didn't just have to swallow losing all this rent. On the other there is a nearby universe where my roommate is still living here and I am about 1000% happier and more functional during this period.

I never liked Popeye's until they had the sandwich. Taking a bite and ending up with nothing but an efflorescence of breading doesn't appeal to me. Now that the sandwich exists I recognize how much better the flavor is than KFC.

It's better than the Chik-fil-A sandwich but mainly because it's bigger and has a spicy option. But the Chik-fil-A sandwich is only 4 dollars. Chik-fil-A's waffle fries are good but ordering always disappoints because there's always a few droopy ones. Popeye's fries aren't good either, but they have the better rice-based options. But you can't eat those in the car.

I ate a Chik-fil-A sandwich once because I was curious. The sauce is good, but they had let the bread sog. I have never had that problem at Popeye's.

I should have popped this in here

Dirty rice is for dirty commies who don't know to eat their meat with potatoes like a real God fearing American.

148: Argh, Barry. So sorry. I drink barely anything at all, so ignore this if you want, but I would not really be able to function at all if I drank that much.

I am with Tim so not completely alone in the same way. Really want to go for a walk and think I must have gained weight, but maybe exercise would help? I've us3 Johnson and Johnson's 7 minute app. Gswif5 would probably scoff, and there have been a bunch of criticism that it's not HIIT, but it gets the blood moving, and I even that tiny bit of exercise helps my mood.

What? There's loads of stuff you can do with just body weight. If you're into that kind of thing maybe check out this guy's instagram.

https://www.instagram.com/brotherfaris/?hl=en

I was just trying to suggest that aerobic exercise helps with mood.

That's why I walk. Also to catch Pokemon.

Oh definitely. Something else anyone cooped up can try, get on youtube and learn some shadowboxing workouts and get a set of these.

https://www.amazon.com/Egg-Weights-Dumbbell-Handheld-Kickboxing/dp/B07FT7WF4H

Just saw that Ohio has joined the effort to prevent Pennsylvanians from getting drunk -- no sales to out-of-state customers in counties bordering Pennsylvania.

I could still drive to the next county after that. Or go to the beer distributor which is still open and four blocks away.

Big deal, they were going to Weirton anyway.

Steubenville is too fancy.

148: I'm sorry to hear that, Barry. No balcony and no view must add to the sense of social isolation.

Have you seen the casting on the new Dune movie? Holy shit. I haven't been in a movie theater in years but this might get me back.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1160419/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

158: So fancy. I haven't bought alcohol there, but I have done it in Weirton.

Barry, you might be the only person I'd suggest should play more video games. A lot of them have good views.

I keep thinking I should download a new PC game, but my PC is so old. I can't even run Minecraft on it.

I was almost arrested in Weirton many years ago.

Naked stabbing guy charged.

Naked "stabbed" guy. One of the victims stabbed him.

163: That's about as good as you can do there.

Oh, right. The first versions of the story had him doing some stabbing too.

They also caught the Toronto feces attacker.

Now I feel safe again.

Montana dude got off easy. Running around attacking people up there is a good way to get shot.

Was he stabbed with, like, a taxidermied grizzly paw, or just something non-awesome like a knife?

Well, it is Missoula.

This is some nice news. I think Stern is a little excessively optimistic in suggesting that voter suppression backfired -- the result is more likely a function of interest in the Democratic primary, I'm thinking -- but it's still nice.

(And props to Bernie for sticking with the race long enough for Wisconsin to vote, but getting out before the vote was counted. Looks smart and decent of him.)

Minivet was on it first, but I'm still cheered.

Why is this an issue? Does Minivet have fleas?

Just trying to keep things in the same thread.

A boy from my son's high school graduation class (Class of 2019: So many adventures await you!) just committed suicide. I am absolutely gutted; and I don't like 2020 at all, at all.

161.2 I've started replaying all the Halo games. And rewatching the Wire on Amazon Prime because streaming Netflix sucks so bad here I couldn't make it through even the beginning of the second episode of Kingdom without it constantly rebuffering.

The Segway inventor just scored my state a planeload of PPE. Glad to see it didn't get confiscated by the Feds, because somehow that is a thing that happens.

barry, i can't offer you any advice re: moving, bc i don't have any way to understand the risks/trade offs in your options, it seems really complicated in the current circumstances. and re: your day to day, there are a bunch of resources available, including online, if you want to try just not drinking for a bit - dare i say, a day at a time? sorry! or - maybe just figure out how much you can drink so as not to have a horrible hangover in the morning, and do that, just as a kindness to your morning self, and see how it goes. then you could enjoy your morning tea or coffee as a daily thing. and maybe in the afternoons or early evenings you could find a low-key online yoga or exercise video option on you tube to give yourself another break. giving your self reliable times of enjoyment can make a big difference. i treasure my early morning tea *by myself* much as i love my 24/7 companions.

sending you many warm wishes and solidarity from san francisco!

Thanks dq and everyone else. I think the solution is walks, and I'm going to reach out to friends here (and I have been) and suggest that maybe we can meet somewhere and take a walk together but keep our distance? I have one good friend (someone who I've been interested in romantically) who is an ecologist here, she's still going out to the desert. My car can't travel in the desert but maybe we can meet somewhere I can drive to that we can walk 'together'.

If you can still get out, that's obviously better. I pine for the days when I could walk a block without coming into contact with someone who doesn't know what six feet means. Jonesing for the awesome cemetery a quarter mile away from our Pittsburgh house.

But if you can't, and you're sick of Halo, uh, I dunno, get Breath of the Wild or Skyrim or something. Or an MMO. Or Animal Crossing, everyone's having a shared moment playing that now. Or, if you like the pixel art aesthetic, Stardew Valley, that's on everything now. You'll be more attuned to the rhythms of time in that game than in real life.