November 2020. Arizona turns out to be the tipping point state. Per almost every recent election, Reps have a decent lead in counts after election night which steadily erode as counting progresses.
It would be a very normal time with calm, rational discourse.
It still boggles my mind that that the issue is whether he won by more than 10 points and it still led to the resignations.
(And to apply my usual provincialism, it reminds a bit of the way that something like the ACA is viewed as being and impossibly close vote (and in the end insufficient without reconciliation) when it was nearly 60 to 40.)
The OAS is known to be politically motivated.
They tried to kill de Gaulle because they thought he was too far left.
Balanced compositions were very important to the New Wave.
I don't know who it was that decided that if you don't know the results of an election within an hour of the polls closing, something is seriously wrong, but unless there's a 1972/1980/1984 type blow-out, you're really not going to know. The second most fucked up thing about 2000 -- after 'greens' thinking that a loss to Bush would help matters -- was the insistence that the media call as early as possible, and then act as if their call had some sort of significance. And then fucking Scalia acting like that call needed to be defended, even to the extent of ordering that vote counting cease.
Other accounts attribute the shutdown to an "enormity of technical fuck-ups"A neologism that deserves to live.
The audit team, which was separate and independent from the OAS's electoral observation mission, began work on November 1. The audit team published their preliminary report on the morning of Sunday, November 10. The report found secret servers, falsified tally sheets, and a deficient chain of custody for critical electoral material -- as well as a "highly unlikely trend in the last 5% of the vote count"And before that, repeated constitutional changes to extend Morales's term limits. None of which is to deny there was a coup (there was) or vindicate the OAS or US (I don't know), but I think it is context that can't reasonably be ignored.
I have no idea, but it's not like the United States doesn't have a history of things in Latin America.
Latin Americans have a longer history of things in Latin America.
10 points
10 points matters because it's the threshold for having a runoff or not under Bolivian rules. I found this interview with Brian Winter really helpful for background-- his main focus is Brazil, but I found this informative and correct on the points I checked afterwards. tldr: Yes, coup, but Morales had reached his exit date in Bolivia and wasn't leaving on his own.
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/brian-winter-slate-evo-morales-just-didnt-know-when-leave
I suspect 3 (David Weman) is referring to the real-life events that are behind the movie _The Day of the Jackal_. Don't really know the history, but ISTR a french historian friend telling me a secret cabal of French Army types tried to assassinate de Gaulle b/c he was too soft on the Algerians. Or something like that. They called themselves the OAS ("organisation armee secrete").
I don't think so. I made the joke in 4 because I enjoy deliberately missing the point.
Bolivia had its best years under Morales. Maybe he was sticking around a bit longer than one would like but, given what we now see is the alternative, its hard to blame him.
It appears, more relevantly, sticking around a bit longer than most Bolivians would like.
I found this interview with Brian Winter really helpful for background-- his main focus is Brazil, but I found this informative and correct on the points I checked afterwards.
I would be careful of any interpretation by Winter or anyone else associated with AS-COA (Americas Society - Council of the Americas), which is basically the voice of organized US big business in Central & South America. More here.
13: Yes. I understood the 10 point thing. Similar to the cloture threshold. The point being that things like MC's glib " sticking around a bit longer than most Bolivians would like" are quite overstated. Even in the total "fraud" scenario it was essentially a tie, and the referendum on allowing to run for another term was defeated 51.3% to 48.7%.
And per X.Trapnel it is quite the thing to get on board with someone like Winter's arrogant "Just Didn't Know When to Leave" assessment.