Moby! Buy this ladder and report back if it's all it's cracked up to be.
I took a nap. It wasn't as exciting as it sounds.
I'm just going to buy a regular six-foot step ladder.
Did you even buy this one and try it out and return it, first?
As a concept. Pricing was reasonable.
It reminded me of the clever ways that strollers fold up and expand so that you can take them on the bus or throw them in the trunk of your car. One-handed design!
But I weight at least twice as much as a baby. That design just looked to have too many failure points.
What's the worst that could happen.
I could try to swing it at a masked wrestler and it folds without a mark on him.
Anyway, in honor of our county's voluntary stay at home week, I'm not going to go to the hardware store for a new ladder. Somebody said I had some shingles missing, and I will go to the hardware for that if it looks like the seal is broken.
I can't think of anything for a daily post besides Ghislaine Maxwell. Does it have an angle that's actually interesting? Or is it the whole Epstein ring of filth intrinsically repulsive-but-not-interesting, even if it loops in Trump?
Never mind, I found a better topic.
12 I find it bizarre that the right wing has been able to tie Clinton closely to Epstein when Trump was in his phone book 17 times and hanging out with him a lot more than Clinton ever did. I mean to be clear, fuck Bill Clinton, and I do find the Hilary had Epstein killed memes funny but we all know it was Barr at Trump's behest.
I'm sleeping all day long on the weekends after my walks. Not good. I'm not rested and I have nightmares and feel really fucked up.
I signed up to be a volunteer texter for Sierra Club's GOTV. It is super easy, very little time investment, but vaguely worrisome. There are a LOT of people who think Biden has dementia. The Right has done a fantastic job with this particular smear, and there's no easy way to rebut someone who thinks Biden has dementia but Trump is mentally fit . . . And this is a supporter list!
Jesus. I keep getting whiffs that that is a widespread rumor, but of course I live in my silo where I don't hear of it.
Hopefully 1-2 debates in the fall, to an empty auditorium puts the lie to rest?
I watched the Netflix documentary on Epstein and it was pretty dull. They skirted very carefully around all his hobnobbing with famous people.
Hospitalizations still declining here. Our 7 day averaged positive rate went up by ~0.1%, but it's still below 5%. Hopefully it's just statistical noise.
Barry, you sound like a man in need of meds.
18: Uh oh. Apparently it is 38% of all voters and 20% of Dems. Yikes.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia
16: isn't sleeping a hell of a lot a COVID-19 symptom?
Wait, does Biden not have dementia?
Kinda kidding, I guess. Trump's more advanced dementia doesn't look like what people think of as dementia, so he gets away with it; Biden seems like he's 100; it's mostly the mushed-mouth-ness (which is unrelated to his stutter).
I continue to think there is no pro-Biden convincing to do. The enthusiasm is anti-Trump and it is holding strong. Gaining even.
I continue to think there is no pro-Biden convincing to do.
I don't know if that's correct (emphasis mine).
At the beginning of June, two political scientists, David Broockman and Joshua Kalla, published a paper detailing the results of an experiment on messaging around Trump and Biden.
They took a sample of 291 messages -- some pro-Trump, some anti-Trump, some pro-Biden, and some anti-Biden -- and subjected a sample of 131,742 people to a random selection of two messages each out of the 291.
They found that "both positive and negative messages about Biden have significantly larger effects on stated vote choice than either positive or negative messages about Trump." What's more, even the tiny impact of the Trump messages may be a kind of statistical illusion. There are two other points of particular interest:Specific pro-Biden messages are more effective than vague messages.For Broockman and Kalla, this research shows that there is a kind of saturation effect going on with voters. It's not that you can't tell people anything new about Trump, it's just that telling them new things doesn't make a difference at this point about whether or not they support him. By contrast, new information about Biden shifts votes. Unite the Country, a Super PAC originally formed to support Biden in the primary, has embraced this message and recently started airing pro-Biden ads which had heretofore been rare in the Democratic independent expenditure mix.
Anti-Trump messages didn't shift voting intention even though they often were effective at shifting perceptions of Trump on the specific subject of the ad.
25: Glad you're optimistic. The steady stream of MAGA and KAG replies I am getting seem pretty enthusiastic, though.
You don't have to look too far into February and especially March to find people pushing for Sanders to be advancing the rumor. It should come as no surprise whatsoever that a solid group of Democrats believe it, and lots of Republicans are saying 'even the liberal . . .'
I'm not saying that people shouldn't advance their candidate and positions in the primary. There are real consequences to arguing that the opponent in the primary is no damn good -- as opposed to my candidate's policies are way better -- but lots of people just can't resist. And we all get to live with those consequences -- although hopefully this one is survivable.
I don't think Biden should debate Trump. What's the point of engaging in Reality TV with a reality TV star who will just make shit up? None of the performative bits of reality TV have a single fucking thing to do with the actual job. If the point is to have the opportunity to call Trump a liar -- who needs additional evidence, and is there anything that can happen at a debate (and its aftermath) that would convince them? The point is not to disseminate information about their positions -- their own speeches/interviews etc are way better for that. It really is just entertainment, and acting like it's important only reinforces the very pernicious myth that government is something that happens on TV. Can someone try to convince me that there is any upside at all for Biden?
We had a ton of debates in the primary, and they didn't mean a thing. Hillary Clinton debated Trump last time and it didn't help her. None of the Republicans who debated Trump in 2016 ended up with anything to show for it, although his manifest unsuitability for the job was apparent to all.
And to anticipate the objection combining both streams, there are way better ways to demonstrate clarity of mind than getting on a stage with a belligerent lying asshole.
Hillary Clinton debated Trump last time and it didn't help her.
That is completely the opposite of what I remember. The debates were great for Clinton, there was just a little too much time between the last debate and the election.
Granted, this article which talks about how effective the debates were for Clinton also says that, on average, debates don't change much.
As Nate Silver notes, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Clinton led by 1.5 points. Before the second, she was up by 5.6 points. Before the third, she was winning by 7.1 points.
...
This is not normal. As Andrew Prokop concluded in his review of the political science evidence around presidential debates, "There's little historical evidence that they've ever swung polls by more than a few percentage points."
She was great. She is great. It didn't move people off Trump.
The actual sequence of events is disappearing down the memory hole. Clinton obliterated Trump at the debates. In one of the debates she accused him of being a Russian puppet, to which he replied pathetically with something like "Not a puppet, not a puppet. No, you're the puppet". Already rumors were circulating that Trump was getting help from the Russians. Then the media and the FBI swung into action. The FBI announced they were reopening the investigation into Clinton's emails, based on some far-fetched theory that dic pic guy (I've genuinely forgotten his name) had secret copies of deleted Clinton emails from his wife, who worked for the Clinton campaign. The media immediately ran cover for Trump, running headlines on how there was no link to Russia, and at the same time they pumped up the email story. So they simultaneously downplayed Trump's genuine scandal, and played up Clinton's fake scandal. Even though they closed the investigation shortly thereafter, the perception the week before the election was that Clinton still had something to hide. Her polling moved steadily down that whole week.
I don't think Biden can afford to refuse to debate. It would be too close to admitting he can't handle it. I don't think his pride would allow him to refuse either.
33: Also I should say I'm not worried about Biden holding his own in a debate with Trump. It will be horrible to watch, but relatively Biden will do fine.
32 is right. She crushed him, moved decisively into the lead, and then Comey happened. I'm pretty surprised that there hasn't been (I could have missed it) some news org looking into what went on in the NY FBI office.
Weiner, his name was actually Weiner.
Lots of nice people are named Weiner. Don't judge on that.
25: with all due respect, um... you do remember the last presidential election...?
Every time people start talking about Biden having a decisive lead, I get nervous. Even if he's polling 20 points ahead, we should act like it's even. I think if everyone fights about 10 times as hard for a Democratic victory as they did in 2016, it might happen. Complacency is one of the most destructive forces in politics. (Well, liberal complacency is one of the most destructive forces in U.S. politics. Maybe it doesn't generalize.)
38 is why I signed up to volunteer. At least I'll know I did something. But gosh, it is tough to feign enthusiasm over Biden when at least some of the criticisms are valid.
When they debate, Biden should insist that each podium be on a raised platform, a single step high. That would keep that wandering fucker in place.
I'd bet I've done as much of the grinding political outreach as anyone here, 'cept probably CharleyCarp. Right, we all understand that a lead doesn't mean to be complacent. And also, don't refuse to recognize what is actually happening because you're traumatized from last time.
32 I know all that stuff. I still don't think Biden has much to gain from debating Trump.
It remains to be seen whether elite media will try as hard to help Trump out this time as well. Last time, they didn't think it would make a difference, imo, and din't think it would matter so much if he won. Neither position is remotely defensible at this point. Why'd they do it if they didn't think it would work? Clicks, and they like to be friendly with congressional Republicans, who might give them tax breaks.
I still think he can and should avoid debating Trump, but if he wants to make disclosure of the guy's tax returns a condition, well, that would be ok.
35 They know exactly who leaks to them and why. The divergence of interests between the journalists and the public wrt sourcing is something that gets way too little play. "Official" leaks should never be protected, period. Is maybe punching up vs. punching down the right frame?
Does Trump want debates? It shouldn't be that hard to lightly troll Trump into rage quitting the debates (it happened in the primary last time), which seems better than giving the media an excuse to call Biden a coward.
Or just hold the line firm on no audience and/or online only. Trump can't stand not having an audience and will flip out.
23 If so it's my only one. I went to sleep at 9ish and got up just before midnight and haven't been able to sleep again. Going to the west side of the country to the beach with Pola in about an hour. I guess I'll be sleeping all day when I get back...
It's a quarter past two in the morning and already 99 F out, but at least the humidity is just 32%
Constant sleeping is definitely a living-through-the-COVID-era symptom. I would love to do it if I had the freedom. Others in the household certainly manage.
In updates, Odile and I are zooming with two of my former professors, now early-retired, to read Antigone once a week. My Greek is ridiculously rusty but it's fun to be doing something new and challenging and my goodness is there a lot of close reading you can do, which I'm enjoying a lot. Can I manage to read 100 lines by next Friday after almost 20 years out of the classroom? Maybe!
16 sounds like something from The Arabian Nightmare
I guess what I meant is that Clinton wasn't able to convert the election from a referendum on her to a referendum on him. It should have happened, because there was, imo, no reasonable basis whatsoever for thinking that she had any issues at all. Emails, goldman sachs, foundation -- none of it meant a goddam thing with respect to the job.
This needs to be a referendum on Trump, not only because Biden has flaws, but also because Trumpism needs to be repudiated at every level. We need to win the Senate too.
Welp the beach is out, I misunderstood our plans and forgot to confirm (it takes about an hour to get there) so it's to the marina again...
Bring some bottle rockets and Miller Lite. The holidays are a time for tradition.
12: Does it have an angle that's actually interesting?
Maybe.
https://twitter.com/eliehonig/status/1278724724940509186
SDNY just announced the Ghislaine Maxwell case - like the original Epstein case - is staffed by the Public Corruption Unit.
I worked at SDNY and did sex trafficking cases. They do NOT run out of Public Corruption - unless there is some potential angle against a public official.
And back again, almost 4 and a half miles. Lunch and a movie later...
What kind of an asshole gets arrested in New Hampshire? It says "Live Free or Die" right on the license plates.
56 is interesting. I saw reports that Barr wanted to meet with her but her lawyer objected. I wonder how long she has.
It's going to take Prince Andrew at least a couple of weeks to have her killed.
59: I saw that too, but I do not think there is any credible source for it that I have found. I think that would (or should) be a big story if true, but right now I am skeptical.
The prosecutor was asked if the timing of Berman's (previous US Attorney for SDNY) recent firing was related but she said no.
50. Have you read Steiner's book on Antigone? I read the lecture it was based on and thought it was fascinating, but the book was o/p before I realised he had turned the lecture into one. I'd love to read it again, because I've largely forgotten the details after 40 odd years.
||
Tipping for personal care services question. I've been thinking about getting a hair cut and getting a pedicure.
The hair salon is requiring people to use Venmo to tip. The nail people have not said anything, but I've seen people use Venmo there before. I think I am ok with the nail place - temperature checks, plexiglass shields at all stations, and they've always autoclaved, used liners in the pedicure thing and disposable gloves for manicures, so I trust their hygiene.
Does anyone have experience with Venmo to tip? I prefer to link it to a credit card rather than my bank account and just pay a 3% fee. MasterCard and visa treat this as a cash advance which could be $10 or more each time. It looks like AmEx does not.
Are there other services people have used?
|>
I didn't know that it was now treated as a cash advance. I switched PayPal from a credit card to a bank account to avoid that. Thanks for the warning. Obviously, the best way to tip is to use dollar coins in a small plastic bag of bleach.
65: It depends on the card. Seems to vary by specific bank. Definitely true of Bank of America.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/your-money/fees-mobile-app-payments.html
61 I think that's right, I didn't see any credible, or really any source at all.
So the "W*lk Aw*y" guy showed up in my other place friend suggestions. I'm thinking of deleting my account for other reasons, but that doesn't help.
With the help of the ellipsis, I can support this statement from Trump's speech, "We are now in the process of defeating the . . . people who in many instances have absolutely no clue what they are doing."
If we'd have let Napster win, this kind of stuff wouldn't happen.
Trump and Pence should resign. So should McConnell, Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Kavanaugh, and even Gorsuch. Daines too. Also both Cruz and Cornyn. Collins! Rubio! Thune! Abbott, Scott, DeSantis.
God, it's relaxing and pleasant just to read that and imagine it.
Putin, Erdogan, and Blosinaro should reaign.
It's really hard not to view the Trump era through the lens of being in a TV show. I was thinking about his nutty speech yesterday, and I thought "Is this going to be the plot of the final arc of the season?" Did I think this sarcastically? I'm not sure.
78 He had what appeared to be a small seizure or stroke during that. And he's looking even more unwell than usual.
Well, we're actually going through with our probably-a-terrible-idea summer travel. Iberian Fury, the Infanta, and I just arrived in Lisbon via Munich (because there are still no Portuguese flights allowed in Austria). Here's hoping our flight to Boston in a week and a half doesn't get cancelled! And, especially, that our flight *back* to Lisbon doesn't get cancelled! And also that Austria has opened back up to Portuguese flights by late August!
Oh, and that none of us get sick in the meantime.
Boy, there are a lot of things that could go wrong with this plan.
If it's any consolation, we're still planning our p-a-t-i drive to Montana in two weeks, too.
I thought you guys had the 'rona already?
apparently not! Iberian Fury and I just took antibody tests last week, both negative.
But...but...how could it have been anything but it? Didn't you guys have textbook symptoms?
Kinda, yeah. But then, they were also basically textbook common cold symptoms. But who knows, maybe false negative.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I read somewhere that some who have recovered from covid have changes in their T cells but not the antibodies associated with it.
IMHMHB My Swedish ex has had it, and recovered. As a Swedish health worker, she thought it inevitable. She had all the classic symptoms except a temperature, and tested positive, along with three colleagues and four patients, all infected by one visitor to her place of work.
Most people can't manage the Scandinavian combination of dysthymia and social welfare.
I'm objectively doing well from the point of view of the virus, at least directly. But I'm just past the 1-year point with a relationship, which is hovering around a are-we-seriously-talking-long-term-plans or are we going to drift apart stage. One problem is they have two teen kids who are a) teenagers b) bored silly and frustrated with virus related things so c) being absolute little shits to their parent. Other parent is not local and not really a factor. I've been staying out of it as not my place, but honestly don't know if I can continue that tact. Any path out of or deeper into this just seems fraught, and it is stressful.
Ugh. The thing about teenagers, though, is that they're not going to live at home for THAT much longer, though. Would it be a slam dunk for you if the kids weren't a factor?
Youngest is nearly 14, so it's going to be 5ish years at least. Otherwise we do really well together, and so long as we don't live together it's mitigated. Not sure if that's a viable long term approach but might be. But also at times they have done things that really hurt; i know where it comes from but may be increasingly hard to bite my tongue.
Objectively, I think I know what's going on - the kids are (I suspect justifiably) angry at the other parent, but since that one is unavailable, they are taking it out on this one. That on top of regular teenage crap, plus this parent having to shoulder 100% of parenting & housework, etc. ... seems like something has to break. This one is letting themselves be walked over because they feel guilty about the impact of the split (not their choice) on the kids. But there's bound to be stuff I don't see/know too.
Can you send them in an apprenticeship with a silversmith or something?
I don't know what the new jobs are.
I don't suppose social stratification has gotten to the point where aristocrats are hiring pages yet?
Are you getting your needs met in this relationship? What I'm wondering is if you're thinking, "this person is wonderful, but frankly they're spread way too thin, and it's hard to get such a small portion of their attention, even if I understand the reasons why."
If you're getting enough of your own needs met, living apart, then I'd be tempted to advise you not to think of this as a make-or-break moment for the relationship, and rather think of it as "Am I okay with this pattern for the next five years?" and then look to move in together around the time that the youngest is settled near the end of high school, or heading to college. But if this current status quo is really hard on you, and you don't want to become more of a mentor/authority figure with these kids, then this might have to be an amicable separation.
In other words, my guess is that this parent may not have the bandwidth to become more serious, if by "become more serious" you mean move in together or spend more time together. So I think this is more about you reflecting on whether or not you're okay with the current situation, for the next five years.
I'm not saying you should make a unilateral decision without discussion. I'm just saying the ultimate decision may be need to be more introspective and less collaborative, the way it would be if your partner had more flexibility in their life.
Three words: Swiss boarding school.
Also, if you do decide to stay together, navigating step-esque family dynamics are what therapists are BEST at. This is not the navel-gazing therapy, this is straight advice from someone who can help you figure out which teenage behavior you need to comment on, and which behaviors you should absolutely not comment on and just look the other way.
Just feeding one is getting hard. He just ate an entire baguette. Not like spoiled dinner by eating one first, but ate dinner and then for a snack ate a whole baguette a couple of hours later.
I mean a teenager. I don't know what a therapist eats.
Therapists don't eat that well, from what I've heard.
I appreciate the input. Part of the problem is that my teenage years went sideways in a way that at least most of the posters here would have trouble understanding the scope of. Which leaves me with some conflict; on the one had I don't feel like I have any standing to comment on nearly anything. On the other hand, and for some of the same reasons, if you are hurting someone I care about I have trouble not overreacting.
understanding should probably be appreciate in 103.
and it occurs to me that , re:100, since I understand my internal compass is such a mess on these things talking to someone better calibrated might be a good idea.
I'm sorry, Jean. A lot of that hits really close to home. I'm really hoping I don't get physically hurt by any of my children while Odile is here because then I'll feel responsible for her (over?)reaction in response. And she definitely has thoughts on how I should put more demands on my kids, who are not always handling quarantine well. We've also talked about whether she'll want her own separate apartment the whole time I have children in the house or whether she'll still want to officially move in at some point. It doesn't help that I'm also dealing with quarantine stress by being overwhelmed and short-tempered, so I fully acknowledge that I'm being a crummy parent but that doesn't mean I want someone to feel hurt every time I neglect to stop a child from interrupting us either. Probably the answer here is and will be therapy but right now we're just muddling through because almost everything is very good. But we do need to figure out how to deal with the disconnects and almost all of those are related to kids (or to having to deal with Lee or to things I overreact to because I was with Lee so long and always expect to be judged and scorned.)
heebie - thanks. I think it's more like, they are drowning a little bit and I'm not sure if I can offer the right kind of help. Or if they are up for it, I suppose. And I really don't feel I have any standing.
And thank you Thorn, that is useful. I don't really know how to talk about this stuff. I'm a bit drunk now a bit, so I'll expand, 'cause I really don't know how to take this on. I flip between
"you little shit, what the fuck do you think you are doing" and "well, at your age I'd had a couple of people I know splashed on me, so this isn't so bad, right?'. I can't imagine that disconnect is easy to deal with so I just send it somewhere else, you know? But this relationship feels a little bit like I have to either get closer and deal with some of that - or back off. I'm not feeling like I'd over-react, just that my reaction comes from a place they aren't poised for. And that I don't think is right, it just is. Part of this is class I guess, they are UMC fallen on slightly tougher times, I'm coming from somewhere else in my understanding of teenage years (if not today). So it isn't so much that their parenting choices give me pause, but when the kids run roughshod on them I want to grab them by a metaphorical ear and have a little chat. Which is out of line, I know. But I don't know what to do with that.
I guess basically I think everything I know about successfully negotiating teenage-hood is blind luck at the very best, so I don't feel like I have anything real to offer. On the other hand, when what they are doing pisses me off, I have to do something (hopefully) useful with that energy.
108 sounds unnecessarily dramatic - I guess what I'm saying is my personal experience doesn't give me any useful model to deal with teens, and I'm at a bit of a loss because of it.
92 is fucking hilarious. Which timeline do you think you're living in, heebie?
re: 110 and 111
Plenty more where that came from. I recommend digging through his channel. He (Bill McClintock) makes the best mashups. He dearly loves mocking some of the more po-faced or pretentious metal bands, but also pretty clear has a deep love of both heavy rock and soul/disco.
I genuinely love this one, and push it on everyone repeatedly* -- Ozzy Osbourne, Tammi Terrell, Marvin Gaye and the Four Tops ("Ain't No Shadow Dark Enough"):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uzWkJByjCc
When Levi Stubbs comes in, the beat matching is perfect.
* probably here, multiple times.
Just back from another walk with Pola at the corniche, 3.75 miles.
I went for a late evening walk today. Weirdly, there was a couple, man and woman, both topless and looking at the view over the Mon. I'm a model of discretion, so I walked by without noticing and they started walking without noticing me.
And just last week on my walk I thought a man coming up was holding a gun. But he was playing a lute.
When the luting starts, the shooting starts.
116: Through a trick of topology, that trail takes a brief dip through enlightened Europe.
The Selkie and I went to the pub last night. Not many people in there so easy to keep 2m distancing - I think we were more like 6m distant from everyone else. Perspex panels over the bar so the staff were separated from the customers, and no drinking at the bar. But, still, pretty good. They'd taken advantage of the lockdown to renovate, so it was all extremely new and bright.
re: 120
Some friends and I talked about maybe going to the pub tonight. Specifically to do it a few days after the pubs open on a quiet week day evening. Our local pub has already been doing takeaway beer for a while, and their internal arrangements for that have been quite well-organised. Socially distanced and actually policed queues. Takeaway containers handled in a way that reduces possible contamination. Payment taken separately from the serving of beer in a way that keeps the payer distant from bar staff, etc.
I'm not sure how it'll work with non-takeaway sales. They do have a very large beer garden, so unless it's very busy it'll be possible to sit multiple metres away from anyone else.
121: my local restaurant was able to do take-out wine and beer but no liquors. - probably because they woukdn't give you a whole bottle. They were doing cocktails with everything you needed for 2 servings minus the alcohol.
108: Jean, it seems like you have a pretty good understanding of where you are and how you might fit into family dynamics. "I have some righteous anger and I really would like to express that energy in a way that helps the people involved" seems like a very positive place to start from. Some insights from a professional, as others suggested, do not sound like a bad idea at all. I hope you work it out.