Upset alert: Man leading by 4.2 million votes unexpectedly declared winner of election.
Some dude on Twitter:
So the race ends as the President golfs--and his pathetic aides stage a shambolic press conference at a landscaping company next to a dildo store. I couldn't have precisely predicted this, but it seems inevitable really.
Also Jason Isbell:
America just got dropped off at rehab.
My WhatsApp is on fire with my overseas cow-orkers and friends expressing joy and congratulations at this news
My mood in two videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSP3UvM62Ds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6c0Je8020Y
I love you beautiful people and I am almost ready to sleep more than two hours a night.
I saw pictures of that landscaping place and thought there was an outside chance the press corps was going to get whacked. Just real Layla energy right there.
It feels surreal. I wish I were surrounded by people having reactions.
It's going to take me a year to loosen up. I'm not even remotely close yet. Thank you all for sharing the last four years with me online, though, and Moby in particular gets a big virtual hug from me. Take care of yourself, man, and thank you so fucking much for the GOTV work.
6.2 Goodfellas Layla energy I'm assuming
Your welcome, not that I'm at all sure what my work accomplished beyond making me feel better by hearing a few dozen people assure me that they really had already voted or were going to vote.
Seconding all the love for this place. Unfogged is generally great, but particularly appreciated this week. Nice to have a sense of community.
10 You don't look at individual efforts in isolation, when you're thinking about movement building/having, but at the collective achievement. You built this!
I just got back from the gas station. There were two black guys about my age shouting back and forth to each other things like "But he's still got his finger on the button" and "He's got time to blow up the world". They were laughing and it was very cheering.
Seriously, was there a different thread that disappeared? Not complaining. Worried about my memory.
I was in a playground when the news broke. People across the street started cheering. I assumed they were impressed by Atossa on the swing. On the way home there were people driving through the neighborhood honking their horns. It really makes up for a wasted trip to the DMV.
16: you saw it! I decided to save it. It was pushing the results thread too far down, and I honestly didn't feel like a distractions thread when I stopped and thought about it.
I wish I was still in a city so I could walk outside and see something going on.
Which was called first- Nevada or Pennsylvania. (I realize that Nevada alone would not put the over the top.)
I just drove by Four Seasons Landscaping on my way home from a nearby park where I was enjoying the beautiful sunny morning when my phone blew up with messages announcing the win, and wondered why on earth there were so many people with Trump and Biden signs, and so many police around on this normally desolate stretch of road! Bizarre! Bad-ass things happen in Philadelphia!
9: Oh, absolutely. It's just the venue with the transition to the bust-out that gives it that vibe.
20: PA
22 was me, and I also wanted to let you all know how grateful I am to all of you - you've kept me ion an even keel in these turbulent times.
America, you'll feel better now you've thrown up.
Did you see that Franklin Graham is claiming g the election isn't over. Why?
Hey, where did everybody go?
Conservatives Outraged After Finding Hundreds of Votes for Trump Spray-painted on Jewish Graves. I laughed.
why can't I make links work on my phone anymore?!
On my iPhone it began putting in "directional" quote marks so they don;t get picked up right in the tags. So I just leave the link as is rather than trying to embede it.
Probably a fix, but I am too lazy.
This was great news to wake up to. AP has the count at 290 now, so any state getting reversed isn't enough.
30/31: I have to manually add "target" HTML for mine to work, so I've also given up and just paste them. It's ugly but I'm too lazy to re-solve exactly how to do it each time I want to add a link.
My sister the Trumper insists that Trump is going to win after all the lawsuits.
Guess I'll have to hide her on Facebook again.
This is such great news. Congrats, guys!
https://slate.com/tag/goodbye-trump-admin
I biked around the lake and through downtown, where I thought spontaneous stuff might be happening. Many distant whoops, one or two cars honking and prompting pedestrians to cheer. One party of two cheering roadside with flags and champagne. There was going to be a protect-the-vote rally at noon, so maybe more will be happening then.
37 is great for people like me who learned way too much about the personal dynamics of the White House courtiers.
37 is great for people like me who learned way too much about the personal dynamics of the White House courtiers.
People locally are setting off fireworks in celebration.
I think I'm going to drink tonight again because drinking last night wasn't satisfying without a called election.
I think I'm going to celebrate by thinking about something other than national politics for the first time in weeks.
I was going to try thinking about my neglected revise and resubmit, but totally failed.
Honestly, that probably would have happened regardless.
I can't really celebrate. Relieved that an absolute travesty has been averted. Mediocre to good is a huge step up from worst President ever but a Senate in Mitch McConnell's hands is still pretty bad.
48 - not necessarily still in McConnell's hands - the GA run-off will determine that.
49: How likely to you thin it is that they will go our way? Also if it's 50/50 with Harris being the tie breaker we are relying on Manchin to not break ranks.
Ha ha, I was wrong about the election, this is great! One thing about being extremely pessimistic - you may suffer a lot from your very own brain, but when you prove to be wrong that feeling of rocketing from the depths to the heights is pretty sweet.
Mitchell still has unexplained death hand.
50: BG, you're right, of course, that everything will continue to suck. But, for now, let's enjoy the win.
Frowner gets it right -- I've been so preparing myself for the last week, and for months really, for another Trump term that I'd been assuming it would be the case. I'm only now, hours after hearing the news, letting it sink in. It's going to take a while.
Can you imagine ordering at a deli and seeing the death hand spread the schmeer on your bagel. No thanks.
NickS's link in 37 is appreciated. As a Walking Dead fan, I recognize the formula.
Thanks, everybody. During the key 48 hours I admit I only looked at news as it was filtered through you guys.
My podcast queue is routinely 30 days behind the present, so I get things like Jeffery Toobin on Fresh Air, last week! But also today was one more interview with someone writing about a particular horror show of an appointment in the Trump administration, doesn't even matter which. I am going to be so much happier not having to deal with that kind of shock practically daily. I mean, I heard the word kakistocracy probably within the first two months of Trump's term, but having a word for it never made it any better.
I skipped right past that episode. Onward!
Ohio's long reign of terror is ended.
View from down the street. Fun fact: The camera operator is standing right in front of my usual.
Holy shit I suddenly seem to have drunk a whole bottle of Prosecco.
Anyway what's this rumor about Putin stepping down because he has Parkinson's? Is that just a joke related to Trump losing?
So, is it better to give to a candidate in Georgia or to the Georgia Dems Federal account? Do we have any commenters who live in Georgia?
People boarded up a bunch of shit in downtown Pittsburgh.
I was just going to give to Stacey Abram's organization, fair fight.
I can't really celebrate.
Not even a little bit? This is a real victory!
62/63: Fuck yeah, Squirrel Hill!
We were out on a walk, only finding out about the news as we came back. The landscape place thing is hilarious. (I wish I could tell my mother this all ended right near the neighborhood she grew up in.) I choose to believe that all the fireworks being set off tonight--boom, there goes another as I write this--are related.
Things are going to be hard and bad, but it's something.
Seconding 67. What to donate to? What about Fair Fight, or is that too late to be effective?
Don't flood GA with money, you guys. These races are going to get a squijillion dollars from non-Georgians who shelled out for Amy McGrath and so on, and you're honestly better off hedging and donating to orgs that can be tactical if the Senate doesn't flip. That's my free advice. My other free advice is to start early on turning Florida purple again.
I'm still weirdly not happy... I think because I had tamped down a lot of negative emotions for four years and the first thing that's happening is not euphoria, but the end of that tamping force. Plus lifelong cynicism about the American presidency, tbh. Seeing tweets about how families separated by the Muslim Ban will be reunited is genuine cause for celebration, though -- I'm not such a curmudgeon as all that.
65 may explain why I don't have any Prosecco.
We have a very nice domestic sparkling. Probably won't open tonight as I'm drinking beer, or as I now call it, Scranton Champagne.
I'm hoping that the low Unfogged posting rate is a sign you're actually celebrating.
I actually have some ideas in the queue, but I couldn't bring myself to post about anything else. Sorry about the myopia!
I think everybody is exhausted anyway.
50 et al.: before getting too pessimistic about Republican obstructionism in the Senate, just think about how miserable they're going to be for the next few months. Trump is going to be shitting on anybody who isn't loyal to him. He'll call into Fox and Friends and hype OAN. 20 Republican Senators' terms are up in 2022, how much are they going to want to help McConnell? Two from purple/blue states are retiring, what do they have to lose?
I realize that McConnell will still have a lot of power, but he won't have a lot of fun.
72: Warnock is a good guy. I'd like to give to some organizations that will help with organizing the Dems in the Southern States - turning North Carolina, Florida and Texas into blue states.
My wife now thinks I'm snobby because I questioned whether anybody would loot a Burlington Coat Factory under any circumstances. Still, weird what was boarded up downtown.
75: don't let us interrupt you! dance the giant inflatable unicorn down the street!
72: Lurid - do you know of good organizations that are working on turning Florida purple?
Like politically or with pollution?
84: Politically. I would prefer blue of course. Politically, that is. A blue haze would not be appealing.
84: Get all those pythons in the Everglades to give it a good hard squeeze. Seriously, I have no Florida informants and am completely out of this loop except for the Rights Restoration Coalition to which Bloomberg donated a ton of money. This is surely not a clear proxy for bring a bunch of Democratic voters into play, and I kind of agree that it's a bit cynical to think of it that way, but it does benefit democracy in Florida.
I'll do some more research and see what I can find. Republicans did a ton of in-person voter registration for this election and it clearly helped them. Maybe it's inevitable that the true will of Florida voters is to be ruled by idiots and criminals, but I like to keep hope alive.
72 (lurid): There's lots of reasons to not be happy that there's no reason to get into now. As for where to be donating, I feel like your suggestion violates the categorical imperative (assuming you think GA is still in play; if it's not, who cares; but if it is, it's life and death). But I'm too drunk to try to come up with a numerical argument where we can show our bayesian priors to each other, so I'll concede you have a good point before more sober and wise commenters west of me chime in.
81 (mobes): Luxury goods above to the city's worst RiteAid, right next to possibly the most heavily trafficked bus stop in the city. And there was a murder there last year, literally right in front of a cop. On every dimension it'd make rich people nervous.
89.1 -- the question is the marginal value of each contribution to that life-or-death electoral victory. If these guys get anything like the contributions that McGrath/Harrison/Gideon did, it will be far more than enough to move whatever it's going to move, and also contribute to the "coastal elites are trying to buy elections in our state" narrative that may ultimately (I suspect) be damaging. People are laser-focused on the Senate, and that's great; but holy shit, look at what Georgia was able to do so far. I'm not 100% sure they need all that much of our dumb money. But maybe!
I forgot the building has so much else.
Hi everybody! Sorry to chime in late; I really WAS out celebrating. When I heard this morning, I was driving back from the (outdoor, socially distanced and masked) farmers market. For those who know the area, I was going from Cheltenham (Montgomery County) to Mt. Airy (northwest Philadelphia). As I drove, people were honking and cheering and waving madly. As I got deeper into the city, there were and more people out.
When I got to the friend's house where I'm staying, all the neighbors were out in the middle of the street. People were pouring champagne, cheering, crying, dissing Trump ("Philly takes out the trash!" was a common one), showing each other texts and videos from friends across the country cheering for Philadelphia.
I was very emotional. All I kept thinking about were the 230,000 people who aren't here to see this moment, and the many many thousands of immigrants who have suffered and died under this administration. I said all along that I would crawl on broken glass to vote for the Democratic candidate, and then work like hell to force them left once in office. That's still true. Biden/Harris was far from my first choice ticket.
But, wow, the relief in knowing that at least some of the horribleness truly will end is just amazing.
Later in the day, when I went for my run, everybody I passed was cheering and waving. Dogwalkers, elderly folks, drivers. It was a cacophony of nonstop honks. Cars were cruising around with huge signs -- one had a hilariously huge "Ridin' with Biden professionally printed banner" -- and drivers of all races and backgrounds* were shouting and pumping their fists in the air. People were beating drums, pots, pans, you name it.
On one of the granola-crunchiest streets, a shopkeeper was blasting opera. I thought it was just generally celebratory until it ended and I realized it was the Scalia/Ginsburg opera (!).
There were multiple impromptu dance parties, block by block. Lots of middle-aged ladies and kids dancing around, some men. A lot of tears, some happy and some grieving. (No one was grieving Trump that I could see, though.) I wore my "VOTE" mask, which I got from making a donation to Fair Fight earlier this year, in celebration.
*This is the most integrated neighborhood in the city, and one of the most genuinely integrated urban neighborhoods in America, so not terribly surprising to have lots of white Biden supporters.
My current fantasy is that as Trump descends into utter frenzied frothing center-cannot-hold territory, he burns down as much of the Republican party as he possibly can on the way out. Thus the Trump trains of Georgia are all left with the impression that the party is the enemy, and they don't bother to turn out in January. Simultaneously, our heavenly Stacey Abrams who basically art in heaven doth move mountains and turn out voters, and gives us all the Senate that we need but don't deserve, in January.
I think Stacey Abrams is awesome and I have been giving to Fair Fight for a while, so I do endorse the idea of giving them more money (either to the 501c3 arm if you need to deduct it, or the c4 arm, Fair Fight Action, if you want more direct political giving).
My Georgia friends really like Warnock. They are lukewarm on Ossoff, though of course supporting him for the sake of the Senate. I'm not sure about donating to campaigns directly given the "outside money" narrative, but I am 100% on board with giving to the grassroots orgs that will get a vote across the finish line.
Also strongly support the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition. I gave to them a few months ago because it seemed like a good cause, and then I happened to hear their founder, Desmond Meade, on two podcasts in quick succession and was immediately moved to do more.
He is an incredibly inspiring speaker and storyteller. Strongly recommend listening (here he is on In the Thick, and here he is on Politically Reactive), and buying his book Let My People Vote if you are so inclined.
That's more like it. Visiting the same lakeside Avenue later in the afternoon, it was teeming with celebrators, and an endless parade of cars blaring their horns, many with signs. The mayor apparently came through earlier in her Burning Man-y rig.
Two more things before I stop hogging the thread. One other funny thing from today: Walking down the sidewalk, overhearing a young African American woman on the phone say with glee: "As an AKA...."
And this priceless Philly sign.
If the Democratic party ever rewarded success, it would make Stacey Abrams its chair.
I wonder if she'll tell people where to most strategically donate.
My favorite thing about the Biden victory rally is so many American flags and not a single one of those fucking fascist blue line flags. Let them keep that shit and we'll take the real flag.
I mean there's some dude on top of his truck at the front with like a 15 foot flagpole going full Gavroche waving it and it looks awesome.
As I was saying at the other place, it's hilarious to see all of the celebration at the Wilmington Riverfront, which is just this big parking lot that I associate with the disappointing annual Polish Festival and its mediocre pierogi.
our heavenly Stacey Abrams who basically art in heaven
Right?! She's like Our Lady, the Blessed Virgin, come down from heaven to earth to get scrappy, and to show us all how it gets done...
Someone claims they're moving the Caspian Sea Monster.
95.2: That was what I got from my Georgia acquaintance who was a huge Abrams booster.
Also mediocre pierogi at a festival sucks. You can get them from the freezer section at the grocery. A festival needs to bring it or just not bother.
I get my mediocre freezer section goods from Costco: it's not particularly good, but holy crap! what a bargain...!
Oh, also, there's a pretty great pierogi h
festival in Whiting, IN at the end of July. We rarely get to go because it almost always conflicts with my mom's birthday. But it was a damned good time.
The problem is that the people who do the cooking are all like 3rd-generation Polish Americans who have never had an authentic pierogi.
In one of my genealogical forays, I traced lourdes' Polish forebears to Michigan City, IN (and Posen/generally near Bydgoszcz before that; it was kinda fun). I don't know if they have any festivals with decent pierogi, but possibly?
Fair. The pierogis on tge train from Berlin to Dresden were also amazing (and the vodka cheaper than water).
112: Had pierogi in Poznan three weeks ago, and they were lovely. Five different kinds for a quick afternoon snack. Sadly my only pierogi during the visit, but it was a quick one. We went to Bamberki the first night -- uniquely Poznan place that draws on the traditions of the Franconians who were invited to settle up there after some war or another had depleted the countryside. Second night we had Georgian (Tbilisi not Atlanta) because mmm have you had Georgian? Anyway, I'll have to go back to Poznan for more pierogi.
More topically, French champagne makes a splendid pairing with victory. (And if it's not from the Champagne region, today it's just sparkling schadenfreude. Sparkling, sparkling schadenfreude.) I woke up from a champagne-inspired nap just in time to catch Harris and Biden's speeches. Yay!
90: I dunno, like, life-or-death means marginal utility calculations largely don't matter. This is the same reason people buy as much health care as they can afford, the negative coefficient on death is so high as to outweigh everything else. And it's not like Georgia's not going to have the same issues with voter suppression next time, same as Florida (which, don't get me wrong, I also desperately want to go blue, partially for personal reasons), so having extra money in the bank is not going to be a bad thing--and having it preferentially distributed in a state that has more of a chance is also not bad. So you've convinced me not to donate to the campaigns, but instead to donate to Fair Fight (as Witt said, either the 501c or PAC as possible) or the state party to distribute between the campaigns and the future as necessary.
Having a lot of emotions and mixed feelings after watching the Biden thing, but I'm trying to be optimistic, for now. Don't think it'll last, but, hey. Good times.
Can Biden put us back in the Paris accord without action by the Senate? I'm fantasizing about the first 50 or so executive orders Biden will sign, many of them retracting existing executive orders.
Yup. He can sign back up for Paris. The WaPo has some details.
I will relax when they nail the coffin shut. Some family friends are watching horror movies right now but I didn't need the reminder first you make sure the serial killer is really dead
Are we ever going to find out about the Four Seasons thing?
By ever, I mean in the next 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/chrispydog/status/1325320662123081729/photo/1
Oh okay, HERE is the Spanish-language-disinformation article I read a few weeks ago. Took forever to find it.
In countries such Peru, Brazil, and Colombia, conservative groups have gained potency amid a backlash against the political progress of women and the LGBTQ community. More recently, a growing number of their supporters have been linked to QA/non, an online phenomenon that features anti-Semitic tropes and whose adherents believe Trump is trying to save the world from a cabal of Satanists and pedophiles.
Piscopo had her own brush with what she calls these transnational forces when she participated in a short interview this month with a news site in Spain over why women prefer Biden to Trump. A two-minute clip of her comments shared on Twitter was quickly retweeted by accounts peddling QA/non conspiracy theories in Spanish. At first, she thought they were bots. Soon she realized they were real people -- and avid supporters of the ousted Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori.
Thank you, America, for once again doing the right thing after exhausting every other possibility.
I drank an entire bottle of bourbon in celebration and just woke up with one hell of a hangover
And thank you, good people of Unfogged, for talking me through it.
120.last: https://twitter.com/nanglish/status/1325242917519233024
"I do know that your poor planning is not my emergency."
I see that Kanye West got 60,000 votes. I wonder if any of them would have made a difference had they gone to Trump. The sight of the poor mad creature tweeting already about his run in 2024 is a kind of comic re-enactment of the genuinely dangerous madness of Trumpism. He's the touch of ridiculous that attends every tragedy.
127 Another of failson-in-law Jared's brilliant moves.
I've spent my day looking at all of the videos posted on Twitter of spontaneous street celebrations breaking out all over the US of A. I wish I was there for that and just cannot get enough.
I wonder if any of them would have made a difference had they gone to Trump.
I'm not going to do the math in every state, but I doubt it. He was only on the ballot in 12 states. Pennsylvania vote numbers:
Joseph R. Biden Jr. Winner Democrat 3,350,534
Donald J. Trump* Republican 3,313,236
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian 77,415
Write-ins 7,990
West was among those write-ins. If he had been on the ballot there he probably would have done better, but five times better? Not enough to make the difference there, and that was the biggest close state.
What are the odds that Joe Biden will actually be the next US President? I mean, Trump isn't well and the events of the last few days can't have improved his general health.
130: So you''re saying we get 2 months of Pence before Biden takes office. Trump is still tweeting that the election was a fraud.
Yeah, potentially. Or Trump might ragequit?
Thanks, Cyrus.
Why is everyone sure that Kanye West was Jared Kushner's idea? I'm sure JK is stupid enough to have it, but what's the evidence that he picked this one out of the whole universe of stupid ideas he had open to him?
And, of course, it's not like advancing this stupid plan prevented him from advancing other stupid plans.
If Trump ragequits, he'll manage to do it so informally that nobody knows whether he's still President or not, and I don't see the current crew figuring out the knobs on the 25th Amendment in time to deal.
132 I really don't see giving up on presidential immunity or ongoing fundraising opportunities before he has to.
He should turn his attention to the Trump Resort Hotel & Presidential Library he needs to start planning for Orlando.
How much campaign debt does he have?
I do expect some rage firing. What is even the point of Barr if he couldn't either get Hunter Biden arrested or get an election case to the Supreme Court?
He's going to shit in the well. Nothing do stop it and easier to do from office.
I'm sure it was Kanye's idea but Kushner took it up and ran with it. A lot of GOP lawyers and operatives worked on the campaign trying to get him on the ballot in various states.
Trump ragequits interviews, but does he have a history of ragequitting anything of this scale?
I stand by my theory that he will just try to burn down all relationships and individuals that he possibly can. I'm really hoping/expecting his wrath is aimed at the Republican establishment.
Which isn't to say that I think his anger will be NBD. I think he will also incite his supporters to violence and it could get incredibly scary and volatile.
Stacey Abrams tweeted a request for funds to this ActBlue page which divides the donation evenly between Fair Fight, Ossoff, and Warnock.
Done. I wonder if they need out of state canvassers. I could take some time off at the end of the month.
142 The Rep establishment is afraid of this, and will spend as long floating that river in Egypt as Trump wants them to.
I decided to take the option to redistribute my donation, split 80/10/10.
Show respect. What is NMM to Alex Trebek?
It doesn't matter if national donations flood Georgia or not, the Republicans are going to claim that George Soros and his globalist elites are personally funding the campaigns. They don't need evidence. Haven't we learned this by now?
I think Fair Fight is a more important recipient than either campaign, legit, but I trust Stacey Abrams.
I'm really hoping/expecting his wrath is aimed at the Republican establishment.
I saw some tweet that narcissists take it out on their enablers first. Hope so.
I think it also helps that his Power of Positive Thought ethos means that he can't contemplate and prepare for bad outcomes in advance. He won't be strategic or grateful.
God I hope they all get tried and convicted. I am, unusually, fairly frightened of DonJr in 2024 and a good way to prevent that is for him to be in prison.
Following the link in 37, here is the twitter equivalent. https://mobile.twitter.com/harikunzru/status/1325129548325933056
You may want to mute this account for a while because I feel I may have to individually insult every member of the outgoing administration in crude and personal ways . . .
I think the impulse to want to see one's political opponents imprisoned is generally unwise. But if I could pick the one member of the administration I would most enjoy seeing behind bars it would be Stephen Miller.
As I've mentioned before, I don't have a Twitter account, and occasionally browse feeds that I am familiar with. I have ended up reading more Twitter this past week -- in part because stress reduced my attention span for anything meatier-- and it has been been the right thing for the circumstances.
I'm not convinced reading more on a general basis would be good.
the impulse to want to see one's political opponents imprisoned is generally unwise
Yeah, it's really insufficient. People eventually get out of prison.
There's an exception when the politicians are actual crooks. In case I'm not clear enough, I'd be happy to have every last person benefitting from the presumption against prosecuting white collar crime tried and convicted. Democrats, Republicans, politicians, rich fuckers. All of them.
I'd be happy to have every last person benefitting from the presumption against prosecuting white collar crime tried and convicted. Democrats, Republicans, politicians, rich fuckers. All of them.
I'd be in favor of that. Practically speaking I think it's unlikely that a prosecution of Donald Trump would happen as part of a broad assault on white collar crime, but I'd certainly enjoy either or both if they happened.
Slight clarification of my comments on the Georgia runoff:
- if the campaigns clearly need funds, obviously give;
- giving to Fair Fight is completely unobjectionable;
- there was clearly a point where giving money to Amy McGrath was useless -- she raised almost $90M and it never really moved the needle. I don't think withholding another $100 donation from that campaign meant you weren't serious about wanting to flip the Senate or get rid of Mitch McConnell, nor do I think anyone here has said that. But I do think it is worth asking yourself where that $100 might go further, and given the state of the country, there are about 90 million options. In this respect I don't think it's fair to say it's "life or death" -- we're probably going to live through another 2 years of GOP-controlled Senate if it happens, and I'd like to have some money left over at that point, so to speak.
My second point is also about money: I like to think the most effective way to go after Trump & co. is to focus on the swindling-taxpayers angle. There has to be some point where the response of Trump supporters to being parted with their current and future earnings is not "I'm happy to have had this criminal genius rob me! An honor, sir!" Right? Right...?
Also I just looked at opensecrets.org and both Ossoff and Warnock each had only a few million cash on hand as of mid-October.
I wonder what Trump's debt is, the campaign debt. The internet says that his fundraising emails for the "legal" challenge say that 50% of the money will go to retiring campaign debt. But the internet won't tell me how much that debt is.
158 Yeah, there's definitely a diminishing marginal utility with money. Yes, you have to hav enough to get your message out. No, saturation by both sides doesn't make a difference. A ton of money was spent on our Senate race, but ultimately, I think scaremongering about antifa and the Squad -- basically free to the Republican campaigns, since it came from Fox -- was enough to decide the race. And love of Donald and everything he stands for.
But I've already moved on. One of our state senators just resigned. So the central committee has to pick 3 candidates to recommend to the county commissioners, who then fill the seat. Meeting is by zoom on Friday. Are we having drama? Do you even need to ask?
I looked them up on FEC with a report submitted 10/22 and to my surprise only found $1.3m. Maybe that's only the main campaign committee and there are others.
It would certainly be nice if the custom that it's a breach of etiquette to prosecute felonies committed by an administration once they leave office and we should all just let bygones be bygones were to disappear.
I doubt it though. They'll probably prosecute Trump, but if they do it will only be because establishment politicians in both parties agree that he isn't one of their kind.
BTW the latest Maricopa drop was smallish (only 7k) but it was 55.6% Biden. The hurdle for Trump is now quite high as there are only ~100k votes left and almost half are provisionals or like this mote Biden-y. Local guys comfortable saying they've seen enough.
And then like clockwork a decent size rural county dump comes in at 59% which is right at Trump's target. But prior analyis probablt still applies. Only 80k votes left.
If Trump gets banned and all the worst MAGA people move to Pallor (sp?), I might go back to tweeting.
My son's comment on Trump's nuisance lawsuits, and refusal to concede: "Thankfully, this administration seems far too incompetent to start a coup."
(We are chuckling over the Four Seasons debacle, naturally).
In celebration, I bought one of Stacey Abrams pseudonymous romance novels. In the first ten pages there was already a treasure map to a Depression-era safe full of gold made up of seven butt tattoos on seven different bank robbers.
Credit where due in Georgia, via old friend in Atlanta.
Such a trove of meme generation. One for the science nerds:
Submitted: Nature
Accepted: Nature Total Landscaping
OMG I have been thinking this for YEARS.
165 doesn't alter the conclusions in 164; those rural counties were in everyone's priors and Trump has nothing else of that size outstanding. AZ will stay blue this round. Credit where due.
Yes. Which is why the next sentence reads But prior analy[s]is probabl[y] still applies.
175: Best (to me) of that set of tweets:
Our Navajo code talkers helped America beat Fascists in WW2 fighting in the pacific front. Of course we would do the same to beat fascists here.
And the freaking freaks (vast majority of Republican politicians and Admin members) seem to be getting their talking points straight and signing up for the No Concession Express.
Not that it would change anything, but the irresponsibility of the Nevada non-call (and for a shorter period of time, PA) is becoming clearer. Nevada at 2.7% now, larger margin than 2016, and it was very, very predictable since Wednesday AM. But to me symptomatic of just one more fucking thing helping obscure the absurdity of Trump/Rs position on this.
176 probably reads a bit too snippy because I did Kornacki it up a bit about those returns. (In partial defense I typed them surreptitiously while we were having dinner in our friends' backyard. Don't invite me anywhere as I am likely to be rude and inattentive.)
I am, unusually, fairly frightened of DonJr in 2024
As I think everyone here knows, I gave up making political predictions after having been resoundingly wrong in the 2008 primaries. That said, I'm not remotely scared of Don Jr. or Eric based on the simple grounds that neither one of them seems to have the genuinely impressive instinct their father has for reality TV-esque staging.
The one I'm for-real scared about is Ivanka. She's just clever enough to figure out a vapid but tantalizing sales pitch, and just competent enough to execute it. I've been horrified by the number of centrist-Dem women I've encountered who actually LIKE and make excuses for her.
All I can think to blame it on is pretty privilege and the eternal appeal of white-lady innocence (tm) to the American public. I'm trying to be as loud and blunt as possible about her evildoings so as to inoculate at least a few folks with doubt. But I fear that by the time 2028 roles around she will have pulled a Chuck Colson or the like.
I mean, Biden's been in the WH before, but will anyone be arranging a fruit basket?
Jews who were raised Presbyterian for Jesus.
181.2: With Maggie Haberman as her spokesperson. (Yes, completely unfair, but still ...)
180: Oh, no worries! I probably came in a bit too Arizona-splainy because I've just spent so much time reading tweets from people who got Pinal County confused with Pima County, and didn't realize that a given percentage coming in from one had very different implications than from the other.
184 is a horrible new wrinkle that had not occurred to me, but is all too plausible. Echhhh.
The Navajo Nation turned out and was crucial in flipping Arizona blue. Now they are going back into lockdown because of Covid. Don't just thank us. Help.
I wore my b. yellowtail mask (on top of the heavy-duty mask) while I was observing the polls! (Negative covid tests for the whole family today, thank goodness.) I do not remotely have the bona fides to wear a mask that says "decolonizer," but maybe you do. Cash donations obviously far more useful, but masks have utility too.
I have a mask that says, "Not nearly as bad as you'd expect for a middle-aged white guy who sold out to big business."
I also have a mask that says "Adidas."
I have a mask that says "Live + Laugh + Signal Virtue".
I'm not scared of the rest of the Republican field. I myself don't get Trump's charisma, but I can see that he has it. Pence/Cruz/Rubio clearly don't. But I worry that Don Jr does (to people who like Trump). I mean, maybe he'll take too much coke and lose control. Or get caught for tax evasion and money laundering. But if not, I'll worry about him and worry about Tucker Carlson.
Massive debt is owed to everyone who went out in stood in interminable lines and overcame unprecedented obstruction to vote Tump out. And to the vote counters who braved unprecedented circumstances to make it all happen. Especially: Native voters in Arizona (hard-hit by COVID but turned out 97% for Biden) and POC voters basically everywhere (much love to Stacey Abrams, who is also a Trekker for Extra Cupcake Points), but I'm profoundly thankful for ANY American who turned out to end what has been a global nightmare as well as an American one.
I'm troubled by the amount of success that alt-right ops had in luring elements of the "left" into spouting crypto-fascist talking points and conspiracy theories. There's work that needs doing, there. I literally had to block people on social media who sleepwalked into regurgitating Trumpist talking points using supposedly "leftist" rationales. Fortunately that kind of disruption was far lass successful than in 2016, in part because the Dems were much more educated about what it looks like this time around.
Happy for America. Happy for us all. Biden and Harris have a long road ahead.
My brother sent me an "Abolish Prison" mask. I wear it because I enjoy the contrast between my frumpy self and the bold mask. Baristas seem to like it. It took me a while to train myself to respond to "I like your mask" with "Vote yes on Prop 17", but I eventually got the hang of it.
193: Been a while. Hope you are well.
195: Good to see you, too, buddy. Doing okay, hope you're staying safe.
I'm scared of any Republican in 2024. I assume the census is going to shift some electoral votes to from states Biden won to states he didn't (FL, TX) or states Democrats won't win again soon (AZ, GA). Like every presidential election from now on, it's just going to be an uphill climb.
We went to the bookstore yesterday and I bought a new mask since my old ones from early in the pandemic are getting lost, breaking, etc. It's pretty nice.
Rod! It has been a while. You know my younger kid is in the process of gradually turning Canadian? At University of Toronto undergrad, and has formed a plan to stay indefinitely.
Hey Liz! That's cool, I'm sure they'll be most welcome! My niece is going to uni not far from there, at Western in London.
197: I am so mad about how the census was managed.
I'm watching some guy on the train watching Star Trek Voyager on his phone. Be your best selves, America.
Speaking of, fuck this new Gmail logo.
Mossy!
Yeah, fuck the new GMail logo. Fuck all the new google services logos. Bring back skeuomorphism, down with flat design.
I don't really worry about the logo, but I'm thinking of switching back to Samsung because of the keyboard. This phone doesn't get me.
Also, the battery sucks in the cold.
Mossy!
201 Pulled me up short as that is where the job I didn't get is.
What's the caveat on the good vaccine news?
It's one of the ones that needs to be kept at super cold temperatures so it will be a challenge to manage distribution.
Is Bill Gates trying to freeze my arm off? Time will tell.
209: Still just a press release. They are not part of Warp Speed and took no federal funds, so 8 wonder how that will affect the price.
OK, it's a press release and "early data". Still, heartening.
Man this Four Seasons Total Landscaping story just keeps getting better.
First witness Giuliani had on to make accusations of electoral fraud is a perennial candidate for the state legislature and a convicted pedophile.
They prefer the term "Hastertian".
i'm at the landscaping business, i'm at the four seasons, i'm at the combination landscaping business four seasons
https://twitter.com/Kristen_Arnett/status/1325199777324179457
Between the crematorium and the dildo store
Yes the current theory is that the landscaping company was used because it is at least 500 feet from schools and playgrounds.
210 is correct. No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved for any infectious disease. It is used for bespoke cancer vaccines.
It's one of those perennially "promising" technologies. I don't know if that's because no company wanted to be the first to bet big on the technology until we had the current situation where most people on earth are going to need a brand new vaccine, or because of concerns about RNA stability and the kind of extreme cold chain that is needed.
222 was me. Also I would have liked this to come out maybe in December for reasons of political credibility.
Also I see a lot of claims that this vaccine is not part of the US government's Operation Warp Speed. What am I missing? Here's a press release. http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/fda_fast-tracks_pfizerbiontechs_covid-19_vaccine_candidates_1344818
Look, it's in a bar graph.
https://www.bioworld.com/articles/496695-moderna-receives-1525b-in-covid-19-funding-as-costs-per-dose-drop
223: You could be right. Some higher up at Pfizer (Kathrin Jansen) said they didn't take any money.
223:
"Expanding Operation Warp Speed's diverse portfolio by adding a vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech increases the odds that we will have a safe, effective vaccine as soon as the end of this year," said HHS Secretary Alex Azar at the time, per the release. A Pfizer spokesperson told Newsweek that while per this agreement Pfizer's vaccine was tied to Operation Warp speed, it had never taken government funding for its research and development. "Pfizer has not taken federal money for R&D," Sharon Castillo, a spokesperson for the company based in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek.
https://www.newsweek.com/pfizer-covid-vaccine-operation-warp-speed-trump-pence-1546024
States and hospitals have been talking about how to get the needed cold storage equipment, last month I remember, maybe earlier.
Onion Joe Biden has lots of coolers.
All Pfizer has is an agreement for the government to purchase 100M doses at $20 each. That was entirely contingent on the vaccine working. If it had failed they get nothing, and so far they have gotten nothing other than whatever financing might be helped by having a guaranteed market. Other companies such as Moderna received R&D funding grants at risk- if their vaccine fails the government doesn't get the money back.
OK, another science question: suppose that a vaccine comes out that really is 90% effective. It takes a few months at least to vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated. How quickly does that actually end the pandemic? Do we keep wearing masks through the end of 2021?
229.last- yes
Still no data if vaccine stops asymptomatic transmission
Not everyone who can be vaccinated will accept it
It takes a month from starting vaccination until protection
They estimate production as 1.3B doses by end of 2021 but don't know how that's split globally
Herd immunity estimate is 60-70% of people need to be non-spreaders. 80% uptake of a 90% effective vaccine gets you there but I don't see it happening until the end of next year.
I better get some moisturizer if I'm going to have to keep washing my hands all winter.
Ben Carson has covid. Is that the first cabinet member?
Another science question: How do they measure "90% effective"? Are high-level officials in the Trump administration being exposed to the virus in order to test the effectiveness of different vaccines? If so, which vaccine did Ben Carson have?
If Trump gets banned and all the worst MAGA people move to Pallor (sp?), I might go back to tweeting.
Oh come on, there's no way the elves would grant them passage there over the Straight Road.
It was being reported that interim analysis had 94 cases and for them to make the claim "90% effective" meant that at most 9/94 could have been in people who had vaccine. If you take that split- 85 people without treatment got COVID and only 9 with vaccine did- and assume that 85 in the vaccine arm would also have gotten COVID but for the treatment, it means vaccine prevented 76/85 cases or 89.4% (round to 90).
Not everyone who can be vaccinated will accept it
Once the vaccine is available to all, I do not care one single bit about the fate of people who will not be vaccinated.
235: Ah, I get it, thanks. I was forgetting about the existence of the whole "control group" thing.
236: I don't care about them, but it affects the timetable for the rest of us.
Back to armbands so businesses can discriminate?
Or perhaps, once everyone who wants the vaccine is vaccinated, I do not care one single bit about people who will not be vaccinated.
Or perhaps, once everyone who wants the vaccine is vaccinated, I do not care one single bit about people who will not be vaccinated.
So with some selective vaccine application, kids could be back in school for Fall 2021?
Someone who is a legit physician scientist on twitter linked to Natalie Dean who provided a primer on the difference between efficacy and effectiveness.
219 doesn't scan right, but it still made me laugh.
So since losing the election Trump has fired the person in charge of nuclear weapons and the secretary of defense. Where are we going here?
The missiles are flying. Hallelujah! Hallelujah!
239 and 240: Some vaccines protect against disease and others against infection. That's relevant for herd immunity. If you don't get the disease but can be infected and transmit with the vaccine, then it's a personal choice. If it prevents the infection and your ability to infect, then it's not a personal choice. People who can't get vaccinated or whose immune system will produce a less than robust response can still be made sick my jackasses who refuse to get vaccinated.
244 is what I'm also wondering. Trump is definitely one of the people you escort out immediately after he's been fired.
Thread from Natalie Dean (who is a legit expert on vaccine study design) about the Pfizer news. The upshot is that it really is good news, but we have a long ways to go yet.
Donkeys don't get COVID so I wouldn't worry about them. Your mink on the other hand...
Georgia's two Republican senators have turned on the Republican secretary of state.
JFC they're just going to straight up try and steal it
They're asking to throw out all mail ballots regardless of date because the result wasn't close enough for "throw out late arriving ballots legal under state law" to work. I'm sure there are many judges who want to be known as the person who agreed to throw out 2.6 million votes.
Which as someone pointed out means every election since who knows when is invalid. But I'm sure that it will be "limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities."
Although maybe it's only a few hundred thousand they want to throw out, possibly just Philly mail ballots, under the well known legal principle of black blackity black black ooga booga.
They must be about done with Georgia.
These motherfuckers are making me feel tense and anxious again. Lose an election? Don't accept the results; try to change the results via courts, legislatures, etc. Whatever it takes because at root the Democrats are illegitimate. I worry about the extent of Whatever.
Also, this could well be a new norm.
Yeah, I think this will be the new norm even if the Republicans don't intend it to be. Once you start doing this stuff, it's hard to stop.
Richard Pilger, who was Director of Election Crimes Branch at the DOJ has stepped down in response to Barr's memo. I have never heard of this guy before now but this doesn't seem great.
As a side note, I love that the NYT got the puff piece on Maggie Haberman out in the brief window after the election was called and before this coup-like behavior started. Way to show their own ass.
Top DOJ in charge of investigating election fraud resigns over Barr's memo. Apparently Barr met with McConnell this morning and they've both gone deeper in since then.
Probably just placating the "Big Guy*". But finding out is half the fun!(I'm sure at least part of McConnell's take is that he thinks it helps in Georgia.)
*As Jeff Zucker referred to Trump in spring 2016 while opining that he would love to have Trump on every week.
CNN is worse than the NYT by a lot.
These motherfuckers are making me feel tense and anxious again
Yeah, they're going full-on banana republic here. It's all so sad and silly and shambolic ("Four Seasons Total Landscaping," and etc.) that you think, 'Well no, that couldn't possibly work, that's just too bloody stupid.' And then you remember that moment on the night of 8 November 2016 when you realized, much to your horror, that Trump had just won the presidency (which was also too bloody stupid to ever actually happen...).
I mean it wasn't even 12 hours ago we were being scolded about not working with Republicans.
It doesn't matter so much if even it's just going through the motions of a legal coup (!!) to placate the big baby if an unstable and prone to violence cohort decides to take it seriously.
We should try to look on the bright side. Really, America had a good run.