Re: Risk

1

The risk of each roll of the dice doesn't change, but there's a difference between rolling the dice 100 times and rolling the dice 3 times.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:05 AM
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My routine is somewhat less hermetically isolating now than it was back in March/April/May.

Most of that comes from deciding that getting takeout is probably safer overall than spending up to 30 minutes inside a supermarket to stock up for 10 days at a time.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:18 AM
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1: But the idea that you can drastically reduce rolling the dice after you've rolled it 100 times is hard for people to grasp. As well as the idea that getting lucky for 100 rolls or getting lucky for 4 rolls doesn't affect your risk tomorrow.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:22 AM
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This thread is giving me a flashback to a scene in The World According to Garp (the film adaptation with Robin Williams) where he decides to buy a house after a plane crashes into it, on the theory that the odds against something similarly disastrous happening twice to the same house must be enormous.


Posted by: AcademicLurker | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:27 AM
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To be fair, risk perception is probably skewed in for a guy who accidentally caused his wife to bite off the dick of the guy she's cheating on him with.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:39 AM
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I'm willing to roll the dice on occasion (not very much) but what concerns me is my ability to identify the people who think they are at the craps table in Vegas. Like, for example, the person who died of covid on a United Airlines flight.

Havn't had a sense of smell or taste for four days? Sure, get on an airplane....


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:51 AM
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Food will suck anyway.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:02 AM
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Oh wow, mutation panic has arrived:

Alarmed by what he called a faster-spreading variant of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson abruptly reversed course on Saturday and imposed a wholesale lockdown on London and most of England's southeast. The decision, which Mr. Johnson announced after an emergency meeting of his cabinet, came after the government got new evidence of a variant first detected several weeks ago in Kent, southeast of London, which the prime minister asserted was 70 percent more transmissible than previous versions. Cabinet ministers were told that in London, cases had nearly doubled in the last week, with the new variant accounting for 60 percent of those.

The article says "Viral mutations are not usual," but surely they mean "unusual"?


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:04 AM
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I get takeout, and I've been to doctors offices. With people wearing masks, I'm less freaked out about people walking near me outside. Tim got his snow tires put on his Outback. I haven't been driving my Prius C, and I decided not to get the snow tires out in, because the Toyota dealership people were not as careful about masking, and I didn't want to be inside with all of those people.

Tim's brother visited his Mom and then stopped by again when he and sil went to pick up a new puppy, but they did not go inside and wore masks the whole time. I'm not traveling until I get a vaccine or can test every day. Honestly, I have to be able to trust other people to be honest about their behavior if I'm going to take a mask off inside even with a lot of testing.

Are you fibbing about going to Denver?


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:05 AM
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The duke's Denver.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:21 AM
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Are you fibbing about going to Denver?

No. I'm entirely serious.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:33 AM
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As in, this is risky and we're doing it and we might all have covid this time next week, and that will suck, and I'm walking into this with my eyes wide open. If one of us ends up in the hospital, the toll we put on the overstretched health care system will be the result of our irresponsible behavior, and I know that going forward.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:35 AM
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Hi, serious.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:37 AM
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14

Stop calling me Shirley.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:37 AM
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I don't know what you're talking about.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:47 AM
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Anyway, I should probably feel smug about how good I am at not going places, but it's pretty easy when they keep pushing more work my way and tell me to stay safe so that they can give me more work next month.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:51 AM
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Anyway, I should probably feel smug about how good I am at not going places, but it's pretty easy when they keep pushing more work my way and tell me to stay safe so that they can give me more work next month.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:51 AM
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Stupid phone. I'm just waiting for Biden to get inaugurated before I buy a new one.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:56 AM
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Also, post-holiday sales.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 11:06 AM
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Anyway, I've only been to one wedding in Texas and it resulted in a pretty quick divorce.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 11:16 AM
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8: "not unusual", but the numbers are going up at a frankly horrible rate, and there's some evidence of more viral load with the latest release-candidate bug, which is just fucking dandy. Still, I got to watch Boris Johnson cancel Christmas, which is just the purest schadenfreude experience going.


Posted by: Alex | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 12:33 PM
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I suspect, though, that the new variant is mostly the excuse they need for doing too late what they should have done a fortnight ago. This is going to be a really quite horrible January.


Posted by: NW | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 12:55 PM
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I'm skiing with Newt. We're eating lunch outside, dinner takeout in our AirBnB, the skiing itself is all outdoors. I can't see how it's worse than staying home, jogging in parks and grocery shopping. But I feel as if I'm doing something dumb.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 12:56 PM
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I mean, you're sliding down a mountain with planks strapped to your feet.


Posted by: Eggplant | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 1:38 PM
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Over-burdened hospitals don't need to treat milder cases of Sonny Bono Disease.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 1:46 PM
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23: Vermont? I was on a walk today and thinking I would love to go ski-ing even though I am not a good skier and as an adult I have only skied out west and would need to take lessons, but there's nowhere I can go without some combination of testing and quarantine, so I don't see how I could swing it.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 1:48 PM
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You just go down the hill in an 'S'-shape and when you get to the bottom of the hill, fall over.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 1:51 PM
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I'm only doing one risky thing every two weeks so at least if I get sick I'll know who to blame.
Two weeks ago I went to get takeout in NH and no one at the restaurant was wearing masks and the cashier kept answering the phone so I had to wait 10 minutes indoors with just to give them my name and tell them I'd wait outside until it was ready. Survived that.
Yesterday I went to a tmobile store because they said my PIN was wrong or expired so I had to go to a store with ID to reset it and instead just ended up doing what I needed to in the store. I still didn't end up with what I had planned because their deal online was misleading and it took them 15 minutes to figure out I couldn't have it.
Can't imagine what exciting adventure I'll try in January.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:19 PM
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I went to three stores yesterday in search of an inessential item and felt bad about it. I suspect that skiing would just be SO GODDAMN FUN that I would be completely distracted from covid risks and just glide down a slippery slope of dopamine-fueled rationalization all week long, so that's out.

||
Apropos of nothing, my daughter has gone for more than 9 years without me coming up with a code name for her, but I just remembered that "Elke" is a real name, her actual name is vaguely Germanic, and she loves deer, so there it is for the next time lourdes or I need to tell stories about her.
|>


Posted by: lurid keyaki | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:20 PM
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26- if you're a beginner just go to Nashoba or Wachusett. They have online ticket sales and ski rentals are set up under tents outdoors.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:21 PM
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8: This doesn't strike me as panic, but a necessary course correction given how lackluster the previous regime was. The government was intending to loosen restrictions for Christmas, because R was around 1 and gosh we'd all love to take a break from this! That's insane! London's the worst it's ever been, and the nation as a whole has rebounded after the fall in cases from the last lockdown over November. This is absolutely called for.

But to focus on the mutation, what we know is that it appears to spread more easily but is similar in symptoms. That changes the calculation on what is a reasonable amount of lockdown relative to the financial and psychological costs. Throw in that we know it's spreading faster, but not how much faster, so being more cautious is sensible. This is the first reasonable thing the Johnson government has done in what feels like months; of course, the right thing would've been to do it three weeks ago so I can't give him too much credit.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:48 PM
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I know a couple of Elkes and they're both terrific.

We'll go XCing tomorrow, which isn't very risky at all. Our local hill is doing pass distribution in person on weekend days, before opening. I just know if I drive up there I'll end up standing in line getting breathed on. We can as well pick them up the first time we go up to ski. The lifts they have are all two-seaters, so if you go with someone in your bubble it'll be pretty low contact.

It's supposed to be La Nina, but she's getting a slowish start.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:49 PM
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31 before reading 22. NW's absolutely right.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 2:49 PM
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A friend who lost a lot of weight on the hackers diet (book by John Walker) said to me once that the human system of weight control is a very simple feedback control system with one output two inputs and a lot of noise and delay. Humans have great trouble managing the system, and he remarked that he could only imagine how hard it would be for humans to manage a more complicated feedback control system. I might add: like an Airborne pandemic where newly infected spend two weeks asymptomatically contagious.
Everybody has to make trade-offs: housing food raising children (And their proper development) -- these can all be more important than protecting oneself fully from covid. But it's very difficult for me to imagine the social disapprobation of the parents of one's children's friends being on that list. we all make trade-offs: During this pandemic I suffer recurring bouts of what might be side effects of medicines I'm taking or maybe something else. It's all pretty damn painful and debilitating at times but it doesn't rise to the damage that covid might do. so I continue to avoid the medical system until I'm vaccinated.

Which, today, means using voice typing because my left elbow is too painful to move. This will probably pass; losing a kidney to covid-19 would not.

I return to the story my friend told me: we are all very bad at judging the bad knock on effects of small decisions in the face of this pandemic.

it is also worth considering that video Rachel Maddow did about when her partner Susan got covid-19 and how it made her feel.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 3:00 PM
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35

It might not be me, but "I follow the John Walker diet plan" sound like another way of saying alcoholic.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 3:27 PM
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35: its actually really simple: (1) weigh literally everything you put into your mouth; (2) no prepared foods whatsoever; (3) daily weighings go into exponential backoff spreadsheet.
1+2 == can calculate caloric intake accurately
3 == can track actual non-water-weight
So you can maintain a 200-cal deficit consistently over months. that is, if you have the discipline to follow it. Which few humans have. me neither.
as my friend put it, you're not starving, but you *are* hungry continuously for *months*.

Maybe compare it to how extroverts feel under lockdown.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 3:45 PM
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37

needless to say, the point of weighing is to list it all, and calculate daily calorie intake.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 3:46 PM
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Endorsing 30. A friend who's a good skiier has gone a few times to Wachusett recently. He's enjoyed it. It's not Stowe, but it is also an easy daytrip from Boston's subrban northwest. The return seems fair for the cost. Nashoba can be fun too; though my buddy lives one town over from Nashoba and still heads to Wachusett, so the latter could well be worth the longer trip.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 3:53 PM
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39

Your paragraph about statistical risk is exactly right and why I'm somewhat sympathetic to the college kids who are partying. Odds are pretty good that a lot of them spend the school day wearing masks, work at a place that requires masks, etc., and figured one party wouldn't hurt. And... that reasoning isn't bad for most things that aren't viral pandemics.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 4:10 PM
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We're at Gore Mountain, in NYS, precisely to avoid quarantine. Sitting waiting to pickup a takeout order because our AirBnB has no phone service and only very erratic internet.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 4:15 PM
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36: "it's pretty simple...if you have the discipline to follow it" is the "2. ???" of dieting. I don't think hysteresis and measurement issues are the biggest problems with dieting most of us have.

39: It's pretty bad reasoning outside of viral pandemics, too. Some things where everyday "I spend all day carefully not doing X, what's the big deal if I slip up now and then" reasoning is both fallacious and massively harmful: unprotected sex, committing murder, closing your eyes while driving.


Posted by: dalriata | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 4:48 PM
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30: I haven't gone in 5 years, but I was going to Colorado and getting lessons every year for 4 or 5 years and I do own skis - k2 something advanced beginner. Tim stopped liking East Coast skiing after he went to Steam Boat. I think he used to go on trips to Tremblant when he was in Ottawa and J Peak in VT when he was in Kingston. There was a memorable one when somebody on the bus trip was asked if he had ever been arrested. He said "yes, for possession". Turned out he had a huge bag of marijuana in his bag in the bus with a scale.

I *might* be able to get him to agree to practicing at Nashoba but it's pricy for what you get.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 4:51 PM
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43

Why did the bus have a scale?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 4:55 PM
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41: I think my friend's point is, that even when one completely eliminates measurement issues it is *still* insanely difficult. And the idea in Walker's book, is to do precisely that, and in a manner that allows you to carefully control for the calorie deficit you wish to endure [that is the best word for it] -- so no need to *fast*.

I meant it only as a metaphor or analogy: what we're .... enduring ... is much worse than that, b/c the control system has such larger delays and the multiplier for bad output effects is so harshly nonlinear.

And I've only reckoned with the duties we owe to our future selves, and our immediate family members, ignoring all duties we owe to our countrymen: our civic duties.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 5:00 PM
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His bag was in the luggage compartment. The customs guy found his bag of pot with a scale in his luggage, so he was going to get charged with possession with intent to distribute.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 5:00 PM
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Why did the bus have a scale?

Not everywhere is fancy like Nebraska with its weigh in motion equipment.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 5:03 PM
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People are not very good at living with statistical risk.

Because most people (myself included) are not very good at understanding statistical risk. We think in terms of narrative/stories/anecdotes: But my grandfather smoked like a chimney, and he never got cancer. But I never get the flu shot, and I've never missed a day of work due to the flu. But I went Christmas-shopping without a mask, and I didn't get COVID...

Anyway, I really appreciate heebie's paragraph about statistical risk, which seems spot-on to me.


Posted by: Just Plain Jane | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 5:06 PM
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In another thread Spike was talking about someone dying of Covid on an airplane flight. I thought it was just the one from the summer and only now realize it happened again and that's what he was talking about.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 5:55 PM
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I can understand "I'm sick and I must get home" as a thought process, but I kind of figured that somebody close to death would get checked-out pretty carefully by the airline.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 6:01 PM
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The analysis of risk is a good one, but neglects an important dimension: the risk of getting only asymptomatically infected, and spreading it to others. This is clearly a massive factor in transmission, from schools and daycares, to people meeting socially in small groups.

In a way, I'm lucky: I have enough comorbidities that the chance of my getting merely asymptomatically ill is pretty low. So the Venn diagram of my civic duty and my duty to my future self .... is a circle.

More reason why inessential social activities are not merely risky, but wrong. As in: "It's wrong to drive drunk" wrong.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 6:14 PM
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On the asymptomatic transmission, my logic goes that since there are six of us in the Geebie household, it's fairly unlikely that we could all be asymptomatic, so we're likely to know if it passes through our house.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 7:32 PM
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52

I guess if you plan to quarantine for 14 days after this outing in Denver, maybe it'll be alright.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 7:40 PM
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who journeyed to Denver, who died in Denver, who came back to Denver & waited in vain, who watched over Denver & brooded and loned in Denver and finally went away to find out the Time, & now Denver is lonesome for her heroes


Posted by: Opinionated Allen Ginsberg | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 8:26 PM
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52: we aren't. If anyone has symptoms in the extended group, we will.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 8:52 PM
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I would be remiss if I didn't note that this, this, is precisely why the public health recommendation is not "symptomatic people should refrain from meeting others in groups", but that "all people should refrain from meeting others outside their immediate domestic unit". Because a two-week asymptomatic incubation period means that unless everyone you plan to meet has already quarantined for two weeks (including you), there is still the risk of transmission. If there were no community spread, this would be a different story: but with community spread, you have to assume some percentage of the people you randomly interact with, are infected, and perhaps asymptomatically.

You yourself wrote that you are living in a covid soup; this is why all nonessential social activities are strongly discouraged. This is the precise difference between what we owe our future selves and our children/immediate family, and what we owe the other members of our society.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:05 PM
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I've been skiing.... 11 days this season? Perks of location. (This would be more impressive if I weren't such a lousy skier.) The resort hasn't been too crazy. We're avoiding indoors as much as possible (easy to do on half days) and everyone is so bundled up and masked I'd be surprised if the lifts or slopes themselves were a risk.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:13 PM
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41: well, one of those is also a virus. I was thinking more along the lines of "I've been budgeting frugally since March - it's okay if I go to Starbucks this once" or "It's okay to have cake on a special occasion even though I'm usually counting calories.". But to be clear, I'm not endorsing it, but understanding why someone can feel like they're being responsible and careful -- they might well be 99% of the time.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:21 PM
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I'm not surprised that someone would fly with actual covid, but even by United's standards it's shocking that all they did was wipe down the seat and carry on with the journey after the dead person was taken off. No deep cleaning, no plane change.


Posted by: Ponder Stibbons | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:35 PM
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I bet the crew was changed, emotionally.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:39 PM
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Cala: Or maybe "I haven't had a drink in weeks; it's OK if I drive home from the pub tonight after shots."


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:43 PM
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i'll say it baldly - this denver trip is a shitty thing to do. hospital staff are having to decide which patients get the icu beds, bc there aren't enough. hg or anyone in this denver group or someone they infect gets sick enough to require icu and get that care (bc younger, started out healthier) rather than someone older? that is shitty.


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 9:46 PM
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I don't know how bald that is, when I said the same thing upthread, but yes. It's irresponsible and risky and the price may be paid by someone innocent person.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:05 PM
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DQ: I'm not a gentle guy, but was trying to be, b/c .... well, hg is a good person, and I don't feel like yelling at good people. I can't say that I would go as far as you, but ....

We're all tempted to make bad decisions under duress: my mom has chided me for eating too much and not exercising enough during this lockdown. I reply that I have only so much willpower to spend, and I'm spending every last iota on staying indoors and away from all the things that make life worth living (which are precious damn few since I'm a natural introvert to begin with).

It's really tough to remember our duties to our countrymen, when we're under a shit-ton of pressure and life sucks, just sucks, just sucks. I yelled at my sister when she IMed me this AM, b/c my elbow hurt so much I couldn't *think*, not to mention deal with her cheery "oh, you should go out and drive around, it'll make you feel better". Just yelled at her. Not her fault at all. We're all under a lot of stress.

But we need to remember that our actions might kill others, and that there's a reason public health directives are written the way they are. And that if we live in a jurisdiction where the bug is rampant, and the authorities are cowards, we might want to be more-than-punctilious in following those rules, and go beyond the call: because lives are on the line.

I see my mailman every few days (me at my door, he on the sidewalk) and all I can think about is: "I don't want to be responsible for Nelson's death".


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:11 PM
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At the same time, it sounds like you both have lives that have allowed you to be punctilious. I don't - we breach the seal every day. So I'm very used mitigating but not eliminating risk.

The 48 hours of masks means that it will have been 4+ days since Geebies were in school. So it's less likely that we'll bring it to them, and if we can get tested, we will. Now, they could give it to us, certainly, and we could wind up taking up a bed in a hospital needlessly, it's true. So yeah, the bottom line is we're being unsafe.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:22 PM
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Immanuel Kant's ethical system tells us that we should act according to a maxim that we could will to be universal law. Are you saying that you're OK with everybody who has any sort of people-facing job, then going to pubs, dances, gathering in groups indoors? Sure, masked, but hey, people remove their masks, etc, etc. Maybe they share food dishes (as at that performance). More generally, in the society your maxim would promulgate, each person would make their own rules for what is and is not required for the public welfare. Rich people with well-armoured SUVs could drive drunk, because they'd be well-protected against collisions.

Would you really want everyone around you acting in this manner? Perhaps everyone already is -- in which case, well, I guess I can understand it, if not condone it. There's a thing that I've noted with a shit-ton of disappointment - that we're slowing becoming a low-trust society, where nobody trusts or looks out for anybody else. And it really, really pisses me off, because once upon a time, we weren't.

P.S. it's true that I'm not compelled to perform a people-facing job. Even if I were, I still wouldn't go into a foreign building except for strict economic necessity. I stopped all my "foreign interactions" long before any lockdown orders, and didn't resume any sort even when lockdowns were lifted, when everybody else was going to restaurants, etc.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:36 PM
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Heebs, one thing to consider is that it's unlikely that you're going to manage significant distancing and masking at all times on the trip. Not saying that you haven't thought of this, but from my experience traveling in September to a family gathering I couldn't avoid, even with precautions (own hotel room, rental car, masks) if anyone I visited had COVID we all would have had it. Just too much time together. And NoVA at the time was at 1% positivity. I'd get a test if you can. (You're driving?)

I'm generally on Team Mitigate but the shared space would drive me batty.



Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:41 PM
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64: hg, I'm assuming that this outing is not strictly necessary for your job, nor critically necessary for the development of your children. At that point, your argument is .... pretty similar to the argument that

a poor person ought to be able to rob others, and be punished less than a rich person

[more disgustingly] an incel ought to be allowed to rape, and be punished less than a married man.

But these are just as false as your argument: what should matter is the status of the victim. In this case, it's the status of the person you might infect, for not having followed public health directives to the letter. That possible victim is the relevant moral subject, and the person whose outcomes matters.

Look: sure I don't have to go out for my work. But I have literally been in foreign buildings three times since March, and will not do so again until there's a vaccine. [partially b/c the concern in the voices of my relatives convinced me it was pretty damn dangerous.] The idea that somehow you're alone in being deprived is simply erroneous: every civic-minded person is doing their utmost to keep others safe.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-19-20 10:53 PM
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Well, that's true. It is not strictly necessary for anyone's job or developmental wellbeing. I mean, I realize this is shitty of us.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 4:36 AM
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one thing to consider is that it's unlikely that you're going to manage significant distancing and masking at all times on the trip.

I'm sure you're right. The kids are used to being masked up at least, but I should definitely be clear - no one will be masking besides us. We'll eat separately for the first two days.

The 48 hours thing came as advice from my cousin, who is a nurse. She said basically that they use it as a rearview mirror - basically, anyone developing symptoms over a two day window gives you a snapshot of their life in the 4-5 day window prior. So we can also spy on them, unmasked, and see if any of them develop symptoms, before being fully exposed ourselves. We've also been reassured that they all wear masks when they go to public places. There are two families and my in-laws living there, in two total houses, a mile apart -They've all been merged this whole time. The remaining brother and his fiance are also coming in. They're on the better side of understanding risk.

But seriously, I'm not trying to shirk the problematic thing we're doing. Of course I have a billion rationalizations in my head, but they don't change anything. It's shitty.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 4:57 AM
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I feel as if I'm piling on -- I am piling on -- but it's shitty on a kind of different scale than most things people do and call shitty. Usually I think of "it's shitty but I'm doing it anyway" as something appropriate for kind of social or emotional harms -- not risking death for family and strangers.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 5:06 AM
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And the vaccine is here, this will all be over in just a few months. Why risk it now?


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 5:16 AM
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72

I wish you weren't going.

I've been struggling with what to write here, because I don't think anything is going to change your mind and I'm not regularly a part of this online community any more and I don't know what I'm even hoping to accomplish.

Perhaps you could at least reconsider your plans for quarantine when you get back. As someone whose "seal is breached" by having my kids in group settings (older kid in a remote learning pod, younger kid in daycare), I'm relying on other families to heed public health guidelines around exactly this sort of thing. I really hope they're not all jettisoning those recommendations and making up their own personal mitigation protocols when it's about the risk of exposing others.


Posted by: Blume | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 5:25 AM
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73

If you bring back enough edibles, it might qualify as a necessary work trip.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 6:55 AM
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74

I hate you all.

Jammies and I went for a long walk a few hours ago and talked about it from every angle. The permanent rift that he'll have with his family. How if we were going to cancel, we should have done so three weeks ago when we knew the exact same amount that we know now. How much Jammies misses his family. There's been a lot of crying.

Anyway we cancelled. We're staying here. You are all a bunch of reprobates.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 6:56 AM
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75

So, 73 was poorly timed.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 6:59 AM
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76

74: Really glad to hear it. If somebody had died, it would be an even more permanent rift. Cancelling 3 weeks ago instead of now probably would have been better/best, but second best (now) is all you have.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:05 AM
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77

Jammies and I were joking about how great it would be if one of us really does have Covid right now and we end up looking like heroes.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:18 AM
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78

thank (from someone with a 71yr old spouse living in low-grade terror until he is vaccinated).


Posted by: dairy queen | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:24 AM
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79

Probably one of the kids will get a fever anyway. One of us always did every Christmas break.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:32 AM
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80

I'm glad you decided not to go. Based on no actual evidence, I feel confident that it won't cause a permanent rift with Jammies' family. And if it does, you will always have us.


Posted by: peep | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:35 AM
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81

At least I have the moral high ground now, until the next ethically dubious decision comes along.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:40 AM
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I still feel bad/conflicted. We got ourselves into a situation where there was no good choice remaining. Also I'm angry at Jammies' family for putting him in this situation. But it'll be fine.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:43 AM
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83

You did the right thing.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:02 AM
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84

They're definitely in the wrong, and here you are protecting them from your breached seal exposures.


Posted by: CharleyCarp | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:06 AM
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85

You did the right thing. The thing that's going to cause permanent risks is when someone kills their parent. My brother who lives in my hometown and his wife are not responsible, and if they kill my parents... At least at 65 the odds my parents would pull through are very good.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:08 AM
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86

You totally have done the right thing. Completely understand being angry at being put into that position, and also the overwhelming desire to see family.


Posted by: Parenthetical | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:13 AM
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87

Mr. Robot and I also had a big argument about going to Denver for Christmas. When I said I was staying home, his family basically shamed him into not leaving me alone. I'm sorry this is such a shitty situation, but I'm relieved you aren't traveling.


Posted by: J, Robot | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:15 AM
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88

We really should have some kind of official vacation week for people to get together with their families once vaccinations are done. It's be easier to get people to skip Christmas if we all knew we'd get a week off for Christmas in July.


Posted by: Unfoggetarian: “Pause endlessly, then go in” (9) | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:24 AM
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89

I agree. I'm thinking I should send Jammies and his mom on a fun vacation weekend, just the two of them, after this is over.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:26 AM
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90

We're all sick of the people in our own house.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:32 AM
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91

Heebie, that sounds tough. If you want moral support for the decision, this is good (you may have seen it before): https://twitter.com/DKarol/status/1334634451117232129

The premier of Manitoba encouraging people to not see family for the holidays


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 8:47 AM
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92

Manitoba is the Texas of the Canadians. Unless it's Alberta.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:01 AM
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93

Kudos to Heebie and Jammies for making a tough decision out of good ethics. I wasn't nearly as hard on them (in my mind - I'm always hours late to the conversation here) as others were, maybe because we just went through a similar dilemma (we only just yesterday decided not to visit/kill grandma, disappointing her greatly). I see the travel decision as part of a bigger picture for the family. And of course her family is part of the bigger ocean of people and decisions we're all swimming in.

If you control the avoidable risk as much as possible and that keeps you on the side of the angels (i.e. r would be below 1.0 if everyone were like you), I'm not going to judge you for being imperfectly below 1.0. If your unavoidable risk, like teaching and schooling, puts you at (an imaginary) personal r of 0.65 and you're able to keep it to 0.7 with some choices or 0.78 if you throw in a trip to Denver, I'm OK with the trip to Denver. Especially where your neighbors are seeking out avoidable risks to boost their personal r above 2.0 to 3 or 4 or 6.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:16 AM
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94

I am so sorry you got stuck in this position. But I think you're absolutely doing the right thing.


Posted by: LizardBreath | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:25 AM
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95

I think planning for Jammies and his mom to have a trip together sounds really nice, and would be something for them both to look forward to while they're sad about missing this trip.


Posted by: J, Robot | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:26 AM
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I feel like 12 years of Catholic school was good preparation for feeling guilty about wanting to do something where I can't quite see how any harm is very likely.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:42 AM
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92: Alberta is Texas. Manitoba is more like it's neighbors the Dakotas.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:46 AM
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98

Everybody in the Dakotas is getting sick.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 9:47 AM
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Good call, heebie. (Even though I was too chicken to get involved in the discussion) I feel like we've all hugged and learned. It truly is a Christmas miracle!


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:16 AM
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100

I didn't learn shit.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:18 AM
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101

You're just [checks notes] afraid that people will see the kind heart you hide away beneath your gruff exterior.


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:26 AM
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102

I was going to say that I don't have a gruff exterior, but I just noticed there's syrup down the front of my shirt.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:27 AM
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103

99, 100. Didn't hug either.


Posted by: chill | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:29 AM
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104

Gruff, sticky - comes to the same thing in repelling hugs.


Posted by: One of Many | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:31 AM
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97: Exactly so. It's all relative.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 10:37 AM
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106

Adding to 91, the thing he does well in the video is communicate (a) that he is confident this is the right decision, and that he isn't conflicted but (b) it's hard and he feels remorse.

It's good communication, and it felt like the right mood for making a tough decision.


Posted by: NickS | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 11:15 AM
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107

Thanks, all. Clearly I do not have the most clearest moral compass in the world, and the chorus of validation does make me feel better.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 11:32 AM
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108
we end up looking like heroes.
You -are- heroes, and heroes *now*, by doing your part to stymie the bug, at a time when it is rampant. And Jammies' family will one day see the importance of what you did. People are dying all around them, just as they are around you. And one day, they will see that you did your part to try to keep them safe.
Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 12:25 PM
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41, 57, and everything really -- the metaphor that works for me is that COVID risks aren't like littering, they're like leaving sparks. The former is only *about* as bad as the trouble you get out of, the latter can be millions of acres bad.

heebie fam, you really are heroes to be cautious for your families BECAUSE you can't stay isolated for weeks in your normal lives. You don't know if there's an ember somewhere in your breath waiting for the right breeze, a particularly dry tuft of grass.


Posted by: clew | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 12:58 PM
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110

So, one time my brother and I were shooting bottle rockets out of our backyard and started a grass fire but we didn't notice. Fortunately, a friend noticed and put it out before it grew bigger.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 1:09 PM
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111

The moral of the story is that I can go to Denver.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 1:09 PM
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112

Depends on how many friends you still have.


Posted by: clew | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 1:19 PM
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113

That particular friend is between my house and Denver, so we're good.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 1:23 PM
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114

I didn't learn shit.

Risk: always start in Australia.

Heebie, I'm glad you and Jammies are refraining from going. It's a hard thing. Even in my family, where there was no disagreement at all, everyone feels rotten about not getting together. (Since my younger sister treats Covid patients, it really was not happening.) This is the Christmas of unfestive brown cardboard as wrapping paper.


Posted by: md 20/400 | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 3:01 PM
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115

I just saw a tweet that said "The real stimulus package is the friends we made along the way" and I thought of Moby.

(That is, I thought of Moby's shtick, not Moby as a new friend.)


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 3:52 PM
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116

Honestly, I picked it up from somebody here. Maybe you?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 3:54 PM
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117

The real shticks are the ones we steal from our friends along the way.


Posted by: heebie | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 4:04 PM
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118

I guess it was a group effort.


Posted by: | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 4:10 PM
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119

That was me.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 4:10 PM
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120

Apparently I never completed my thought on the thread Moby linked to. The urtext for "friends you meet along the way" is The Wizard of Oz.


Posted by: unimaginative | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:24 PM
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121

I thought the real treasure there was knowing that you had courage all along or the phoney university degree.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:39 PM
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122

My sympathies to Jammies for what sounds really hard for him. I hope it ends up being more restful for all of you, and that his family comes to understand it. You have been under a tremendous amount of strain.

I have noticed that the density of my calls between me and my sister has been rising sharply ever since we broke the previous record for longest time without seeing each other in person a couple months ago. We were plotting for her to come out here, quarantine at a motel and then stay, in late January, under the idea that this peak might fall by then, and the CDC will be issuing more trustworthy guidance. But after reading about this guy: nope, nope, nope. She needs her two jabs first. Nevertheless it discombobulates me that she has gone more than 9 months without getting a hug from anyone.


Posted by: Ile | Link to this comment | 12-20-20 7:56 PM
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123

Atrios linked this one. Seems germane to the conversation.


Posted by: politicalfootball | Link to this comment | 12-21-20 8:17 AM
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124

Heebie, that sounds like the right call and a hard call.


Posted by: Cala | Link to this comment | 12-21-20 10:06 AM
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89: That sounds like a terrible dilemma; you made the right call, difficult as it was. I think that your plan to send Mom and Son on a trip together sounds like a beautiful Christmas gift to them both.

Sorry they mousetrapped you into a corner without good options.


Posted by: Mooseking | Link to this comment | 12-21-20 12:24 PM
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126

I fear this isn't helpful at all, but ....

Your willingness to publicly discuss this decision you and Jammies had to make, and your making the right one, and describing all the consequences, is educational. I know that Unfogged has lots of readers (or so I have read), and perhaps some of those readers, upon seeing your grappling with this issue and coming out with the right decision, will be further impelled to do the same.

What I'm saying is: just as politicians and celebs (esp. older ones) getting the vaccine is a good thing, just as them wearing masks is a good thing, b/c it models behaviour for others, so too is your grappling with this dilemma (truly, horns of a dilemma) and coming out with the right decision.

Your willingness to discuss it, might save other lives besides the ones you directly influence.


Posted by: CHETAN R MURTHY | Link to this comment | 12-21-20 10:52 PM
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This is the first time I've ever seen someone change their mind on something consequential because of what people said on a comments thread. Outside of here the internets universally work to entrench opinions rather than change them.

I've lurked for years but feel compelled to comment on how remarkable the Unfogged community is. I welled up when I read about Heebie's change of plan. And it's 10.30am where I am and I have not yet had a drink today.


Posted by: SP (UK) | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 3:26 AM
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128

127: SP(UK). Comments much appreciated, but I think LizardBreath might like to have a word with you about your pseudonym.


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 5:39 AM
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129

127: Shoukd have said Welcome!


Posted by: Bostoniangirl | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 5:39 AM
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130

Don't listen to her!


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 6:04 AM
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131

SPUK?


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 6:31 AM
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132

128 Seconding, please stick around and comment.


Posted by: Barry Freed | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 7:07 AM
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133

Nobody changes their behavior based on what is said in a comment thread.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 7:18 AM
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134

Let's all list our SAT scores and times we've been persuaded to avoid Colorado.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 7:51 AM
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135

Anyway, it's going to be just the three of us for Christmas. And instead of seven fishes, we're having crab cakes on Christmas Eve.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 8:30 AM
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136

Maybe I'll open a can of anchovies too.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 8:46 AM
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127: aw, thanks.

IIRC, there was one precedent, circa 2005, when someone was compelled to actually haul off and read Betty Friedan's The Feminist Mystique.


Posted by: heebie-geebie | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 8:47 AM
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138

I've bought books recommended here. I don't know if I've read them.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 8:49 AM
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139

To be fair to the book recommendations from here, I've not been very good at reading books recommended elsewhere either.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 9:04 AM
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What have I done at the recommendation of the commenters? Went to meet said people in person; decided to take a job opportunity (TBF probably would have anyway); book recommendations. But some people have kids with each other as a result of the comments.


Posted by: SP | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 10:09 AM
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141

We're like a cult. No unprotected heterosexual intercourse until we sign the approval.


Posted by: Moby Hick | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 10:11 AM
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142

I sold a bitcoin on recommendation of the commenters. I got $700 for it!


Posted by: Spike | Link to this comment | 12-22-20 11:28 AM
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