We still can't talk about politics without talking about Trump? I'm sick of this stuff.
It's especially interesting because I think the usual experience has been that off-year elections favor Republicans -- that our coalition included more lower propensity voters than theirs did.
(No I didn't click though -- I suppose they talked about this.)
Here, I would say that 2018 was as much an outlier as 2020: our overall 2018 turnout in the marquee races wasn't that different from 2016, and blew out 2014. That's all Trump, imo.
Isn't it more that he can't imagine relinquishing the income/adulation stream that being a cult leader brings? He has to act like he's running to keep people from attaching to someone else.
I'm kind of trying to ignore him as well, though. Present and future -- he's an indelible part of the past, and for the rest of all time, we'll be a country that actually picked that guy.
|| Our senate has passed the you-can-discriminate-if-you-say-it's-because-of-your-religion bill that Mike Pence shrunk away from back when he was gov of Indiana. I suppose there's no point in building that new convention center after all . . .|>
Moby: I guess it is pretty unavoidable to talk about Presidential elections 2 years out, but 4? God help us.
Yes, please. We're still in the same crisis as before, but on a better trajectory.
Nobody says you have to talk about Trump, but maybe in an election or two, you'll be required to post a picture of him on your wall. The failure to recognize Trump's importance was a foundational error that got us Trump in the first place.
But sure, yeah, Twitter and the NYT and the Washington Post and whatnot don't need to be supplying him with a microphone. I think they've done well so far.
My best guess is that he'll keep raising money toward a 2024 run, but at some point drop out. His health will continue to decline, and he'll enjoy being an absentee kingmaker much more than being in the White House.
I've barely had to hear Trump's actual voice for over a month, it's amazing.
That's certainly the calculation various Republicans are making, which very conveniently lets them do fuck all except seek voters who supported Trump over them.
We still can't talk about politics without talking about Trump? I'm sick of this stuff.
The PAC link at the end is gratuitous, sure. But redistricting and gerrymandering and how politicians are using the past two elections, which is inextricably bound up in Trump? Yes, I think this is a big, current concern.
9: Debilitating illness or being in prison might stop him from running. But under what scenario would Trump find not-running more satisfying than running? As for not wanting to be president, Trump has learned that if he screws up and gets elected, he gets to decide exactly how much president he's going to be. The not-fun stuff he can farm out or just neglect.
I think he already learned that from having kids.
12: I could be wrong. I feel like he got thwarted when trying to do actual things, sufficiently to find the experience degrading to his personal image. But hopefully my mental model of him is degrading.
FWIW, barring a serious medical event, I think he will run again. He hates losing. He doesn't think about the stuff after that.
15:. I think you're right. He enjoys the adulation and attention he gets when he's campaigning. He won't want to stop.
That's true, he certainly doesn't plan anything in advance, so if he gets caught up in the rallies again, that may be it.
The perfect solution for him is to keep the field clear so Ivanka can run. He'll try to stage-manage the whole thing, and if she wins he'll still get to have rallies and adulation, and won't have to deal with any of the unpleasant parts of the thing.
The one thing he can't abide is a post-Trump Republican candidate distancing from him and still winning his voters.
I don't think he's going to do anything strategic to help his kids. Their best chance is if he dies.
2: As education polarization increases Democrats are gonna do relatively better in off years.
Trump returns to the presidency today. Ivanka will have to wait.