Nobody knows! Polls are too bad and turnout too low. Not unlike Brexit.
I think with everyone panicking now, hopefully we'll get a wider range of public figures putting in effort, maybe Bernie Sanders will do a TV spot, and we'll eke it out.
if only there was some enforceable mechanism whereby we could vote to reject the recall in exchange for newsom leaving public life forever. spectacularly shitty retail politician & pretty crappy on policy too. & feinstein squatting in the senate, bats flapping about her belfry. behold the pinnacles of the ca democratic party! 🤮
I just checked and impeachment/removal procedures in California are mostly the same as at the federal level (majority of Assembly, 2/3 of Senate), except grounds for impeachment are much broader/vaguer, "misconduct in office". So they couldn't impeach Elder for prior acts of violence, but a wide range of things once he's in office. Maybe.
I forever hate Newsom b/c he shut down the thriving outdoor chess scene on Market Street to placate people who were scared of Black people. But yeah if he gets recalled it's gonna be Terminator 2.0.
The Dems are freaking out and telling me that I have to do the boring responsible thing and FINE I WILL but I won't enjoy it.
But it is also true that the unknown Democrat Kevin polls higher than any of the Republicans. Elder was at 23% and Some Kevin Guy Who Isn't The Other Two Kevins was at 29%. I'd be fine for that outcome except that he's a real estate developer.
But if this either (clears out all the appointed at Resources and DWR) OR (gets us Betty Yee or Fiona Ma) next year? I'm fine with it. I could live with a lunatic for a year with the legislature and the civil servants slow-walking everything he attempts.
Governor Fingerguns should give some real thought to how we've arrived at this position and how it is that no one fucking cares about him.
Do not tell me the potential bad consequences. I understand them.
5: Yeah, I came to the same conclusion as elsewhere. "Precisely because he's 29, not a Republican, and all over the place [on policy], I think he is likely to be the least effectual and therefore least damaging. The amassed forces of the state bureaucracy, legislature, and all the interest groups will be able to pressure and corner him, prevent him from doing that much that rocks the boat. Whereas a Republican with an actual base of support would have more ability to spurn reality and wreck as much possible. Famous last words? Maybe. But it's bad options all around."
Basically, vote for a less competent Jim Hacker (but always, always NO on the recall).
I've not heard of any of the replacement candidates except the ones who are obviously terrible.
So...Angelyne?
i may vote for angelyne bc of her name recognition in largest conurbation & her positions not terrible even if not fully baked policies.
I'm a no and probably real estate Kevin. The official democratic "vote no and leave the replacement candidate blank" position doesn't make sense, does it? Why do they want the replacement candidate blank -- do they really think that one of the republicans will actually be chastened if they sneak into office with 12% of the vote instead of 18% of the vote? It feels like the typically weak attempt to boycott an election, but among people who are already voting.
Do not tell me the potential bad consequences. I understand them.
You say this now, but when you actually see ten new dams made entirely of almonds...
The official democratic "vote no and leave the replacement candidate blank" position doesn't make sense, does it? Why do they want the replacement candidate blank
It might be a miscalculation, it creates tail risk, but it's not nonsensical, and it's part of a whole strategy. They wielded pressure from the beginning to make sure no credible Democratic candidate stood as a replacement. They think they're most likely to win if it's a black-and-white "stop the Republican takeover" proposition, that if there's a credible Democratic alternative that will give the recall a better chance of succeeding. That's the lesson they took, rightly or wrongly, from the 2003 election when the lieutenant governor campaigned on "No on the recall, but then vote for me."
And the recall winning and us getting a governor out of the the replacement candidates would be a very risky process even if there were a credible Democratic candidate in there.
Now, was this strategy partly influenced by Newsom seeing another Democrat replacing him as a bad outcome in itself? Can't rule it out. But again, not nonsensical.
It is especially tempting to vote for Angelyne if you primarily know her as a fleeting image in the opening credits to Moonlighting and don't care about California but I guess I'll be grown up about this.
Any CA people know what it would take to change this idiotic system? E.g., make it a normal snap election with the governor on the ballot, use preference voting or a top-two runoff for the big field of candidates, or just abolish recalls and leave it to the legislature to impeach.
17 Constitutional amendment. It's the dumbest fucking thing on the planet.
17 Constitutional amendment. It's the dumbest fucking thing on the planet.
So a ballot proposition, basically? That can't be THAT hard. While we're at it can we make it harder to put things on the ballot? I don't like homework.
It might be a miscalculation, it creates tail risk, but it's not nonsensical, and it's part of a whole strategy. They wielded pressure from the beginning to make sure no credible Democratic candidate stood as a replacement. They think they're most likely to win if it's a black-and-white "stop the Republican takeover" proposition,
It may make sense as a marketing strategy, but it is nonsensical as a voting strategy, which I think weakens it as a marketing strategy. Nobody who is selling this message is actually going to leave the 2nd question blank, are they? I'm dubious of attempts to shift the understood meaning of an election that depend on selectively ignoring how the election actually works. I just want to know who to vote for in order to minimize the potential damage. That shouldn't be so hard, and it's one of the things that parties are for!
But yes, what Yawnoc said in 20.
They call it the 'Principal-Agent Problem' because it's the main problem with having someone else represent your interests.
That's a weird name for a politician.
One of the better ideas on the table IMO is that the LG automatically takes over without an election if the governor is recalled, since they've already been elected as the backup person, and on a separate ticket. (That doesn't work for most other offices, as there's no line of succession; recall is universal in California, though rarely used.)
If the Legislature gets its shit together to refer a constitutional amendment to the voter, it just needs 50%+1.
It may make sense as a marketing strategy, but it is nonsensical as a voting strategy, which I think weakens it as a marketing strategy.
I agree it's flawed; but it's not like the alternative is unflawed. Judgment call.
Press not through wilding yet. They are insane.
I voted NO and for Kevin Paffrath for the second question. I'm not particularly thrilled with the guy, but he's the only Democrat polling in the top 6, which means I think he's the only one with a somewhat realistic chance to win if the recall passes. I was concerned that he might be a DINO, but he has pledged to appoint a Democrat if Feinstein's seat becomes vacant, and I think I can count on him not to oppose public health measures on COVID, which I don't think is true for the rest of the top 6. Those are the two biggest things that could really cause irreversible damage if a new governor got them wrong, and he's on the right side of them. Other than that, I expect he will probably screw up a lot, but I will be happy to be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't.
If the recall somehow passes and Paffrath doesn't win the second question, then I think we are all staking the rest of Biden's first term agenda on the continued health of an 88-year old woman. I think that makes him the right choice for all Democratic sympathizers to unite behind at this point, even if he is a political amateur. We should still hope that the recall itself is defeated.
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