Of all the things in Larry Niven novels that could have entered reality, we get "flash mob" and "organ trafficking"?

I wanted Pierson's puppeteers!

My computer doesn't even support Flash anymore.

The mob to steal sledgehammers seems like the preparation for something bigger.

I think it's a real phenomenon. The murder rate already jumped a bunch (Philadelphia set a new all-time high, higher than the 70s, which amazes me). There were already viral videos of people shoplifting whole shopping carts worth of stuff over the summer, so it seems there's an escalation in criminality.

Moral panic also seems like a weird category for it. Having multiple stores get ransacked by mobs out of the blue is a clear and spectacular breakdown in the social order. Even if the overall consequences are small, it's still viscerally shocking.

A "flash mob" in Niven's universe is unplanned, IIRC. The suspicion about the organized retail thefts is that they are planned by criminal gangs, and the beneficiaries (the actual thieves) get a pre-defined cash payoff. The items stolen are sold on eBay, Amazon, etc. by third parties. "Moral panic" is getting stretched here.

A diagnosis from a local thinker:

So what are these flash burglaries? An innovative new criminal scheme? No, flash mob burglaries are just dumb shit kids do to get their favorite clothes or re-sell things for money. It's been happening since forever; go open up Newspapers dot com archives and find endless stories of young people gangs looting stores en-masse throughout the 20th century. It wasn't too long ago that some teenagers flash robbed BART passengers at Coliseum station and people got all hysterical too. I'm certain the incident traumatized people and it's absolutely inexcusable, but it wasn't some sinister scheme cooked up by highly organized crime rings. No, it was just some kids from Oakland's poorest neighborhoods trying to steal phones.

These mob burglaries aren't very smart either. I'm certain the organizers of these loosely held together mobs explain in their group chats that strength in numbers decreases their likelihood of arrest. Which of course is bullshit. Any good thief will tell you that having more than like three or four people who aren't very close friends doing a burglary is a terrible idea. Let alone 80 people. Not only were there certainly numerous snitches in the group chat, but even if miraculously there weren't any, the ones that got caught will snitch others out.

Stating the obvious here, but crime really freaks people out, and pointing to historical trends reassures basically no one who is freaked out about it. I have no idea what the short-term fix is, but Democratic mayors don't seem to do a hell of a lot about long-term fixes when they're in office, either. I guess this is what we get for electing fucking Rahm, but my impression is that Lightfoot hasn't been particularly effective, either.

I wonder if the CPD doesn't have a strong desire to see crime increase as a counter to BLM.

4.2 seems intuitively right to me, but that may just be because much bigger things are going on that make me worried about societal dysfunction and breakdown. Obviously, shoplifting, even organized in this way, is no big deal in its own right.

"A "flash mob" in Niven's universe is unplanned, IIRC."

It is, but there is a story called "The Permanent Floating Riot Club" about a gang of professional thieves who take advantage of the flash mobs to loot.

Sounds a lot like this to me https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ram-raiding

Here the permanent floating riot club rides dirt bikes and ATVs on city streets and sidewalks in groups of dozens. I can't tell if the police have decided it's too dangerous to stop them or if they figured that Darwin is taking care of the problem.

A pack of those dirt bikes and ATVs emerged through traffic and the street-lighted steam clouds at me the other night, à la the oeuvre of John Woo, and I was briefly overjoyed by the thought that a pack of John Wick-level assassins was about to attack me. Then they drove on to do noisy wheelies or some such old lady scaring nonsense.

I hadn't been so specifically happy since I briefly had reason to wonder whether a foreign billionaire was going to have me followed. Please, please, please.

Are you really trying hard enough at whatever irks them that they should pay for your assassination?

I'm not asking them to pay a lot. A token amount would really go a long way towards buttressing the old self-esteem.

If they scrimp on your assassination, it makes them look weak.

What if their assassins work on retainer for a certain number of assassinations per fiscal year?

I'm not in tune with human resources.

Cyborg assassins? Yes, please.

The murder rate already jumped a bunch (Philadelphia set a new all-time high, higher than the 70s, which amazes me). There were already viral videos of people shoplifting whole shopping carts worth of stuff over the summer, so it seems there's an escalation in criminality.

Moral panic also seems like a weird category for it. Having multiple stores get ransacked by mobs out of the blue is a clear and spectacular breakdown in the social order. Even if the overall consequences are small, it's still viscerally shocking.

But this is a bunch of assertions that don't actually lead to a conclusion. The whole concept just falls apart to occur on any sort of scale and regularity: You can have trends on TikTok, ie looting middle school bathrooms, but you can't really organize on TikTok. You can organize dance flash mobs, but there's nothing secret or criminal about them. A large scale organization of criminals who all stand to make $10-30, depending on what they loot, and they all cooperate and it all stays secret but can also scale up to be worthwhile? And it happens repeatedly? This is a nonsensical criminal business model.

Or what 6 says.

Stating the obvious here, but crime really freaks people out,

This. And also, we like to imagine criminals as complicated masterminds that we can't relate to. We're scared of roving gangs of teenagers who hold our etiquette in utter contempt and might hurt us with their cavalier ways. Teenagers can be hurtful and cavalier, and can certainly hold etiquette in contempt, but the idea that it manifests in these shoplifting sprees is either:
1. it happened once or twice, or
2. the flash-theft definition got diluted to the point where 2-3 kids after school counts as flash-theft.

20: It's better than most e-commerce business plans back in the late 90s.

we like to imagine criminals as complicated masterminds that we can't relate to.

I can totally relate to complicated masterminds. What's alien to me is dumbasses who give their kids access to guns and don't sweat it when the school expresses concerns.

That might be off-topic.

You're saying billionaires are underwriting the flash theft mobs? Plausible.

Also the availability bias is a killer. In my city, 2021 YTD vs. 2016-2019 same months average:

* Murder up 60% (from 1.25 to 2; spiked at 5 in 2020)
* Rape down 9%
* Robbery down 5%
* Aggravated assault down 6%
* Burglary down 43%
* Larceny down 19%
* Auto theft up 14%
* Arson up 33% (from 11.25 to 15)

So guess which one goes all over the nightly news - auto theft, especially catalytic converters.

It would be really annoying to go start your car any find the exhaust system fucked.

25: I am saying that I am intrigued by your suggestion that I take up a new hobby.

I am intrigued that you have billions that you need to park somewhere. May I be of some assistance?

So it's possible that all of those crimes are down, and it's not a result of a change in reporting, despite what people say. And yet, for the last 30 years, people have nodded wisely and said "you know, the murder rate is the most reliable crime rate, because it's less affected by changes in reporting.

Catalytic converter theft has intruded on lots of people's lives. My friend has had hers stolen four times. It is the perfect news topic, because it taps into something people have experienced.

It's a great crime because after you've had your fourth one stolen, you're probably looking to but a cheaper replacement like you get when you buy a stolen one.

My neighbors and I have an in-house ring where we just rotate catalytic converters among ourselves every months. It helps keep overhead down.

I really wish those kids on dirt bikes would go electric. It would be so much cleaner and quieter.

I had mine stolen once; Ume once, and one more attempted, which has left her car with a permanent rattle at low speeds, because the thieves were defeated by the cat lock. But if you park a hybrid on the street here it will get done sooner or later.

and it's not a result of a change in reporting, despite what people say

Who is saying reporting declines every year enough to account for the long-term decline? On what grounds?

Most serious property crimes spawn a police report for insurance purposes if nothing else, I should think.

Nextdoor exists to remind people to call the police.

Murder up 60% (from 1.25 to 2; spiked at 5 in 2020)

With six weeks left in the year, Durham has already recorded 44 homicides, making 2021 the deadliest year in the city since authorities started keeping records. Durham's previous record for homicides in a year was the 42 that were recorded in 2016. Two homicides last weekend pushed the city past that mark. Most of the deaths were gun-related. Durham police report 38 fatal shootings through Nov. 13, a 52 percent jump from a year ago. The total number of shootings in the city is down by 15 percent this year, however.

Good news is, shootings are down. Bad news is, the folks left are much better shots.

More proof of the breakdown of the social order -- stolen food trucks -- https://614now.com/2021/news/another-columbus-food-truck-was-hot-wired-stolen-the-same-night-as-la-pablonita

Hell in a handbasket, I say

The murder rate already jumped a bunch (Philadelphia set a new all-time high, higher than the 70s, which amazes me).

My son is at Temple, where a student was recently fatally shot, about a block or two from the campus. In that same week, a 14-year old and an 18-year old were also fatally shot in the same area. The increase in violent crime (carjackings, armed robberies, murder) is real. I'm not sure about flash theft mobs.

I wonder if all the laptop-theft cartels in the Bay Area had to switch to catalytic converters last year due to people not leaving the house with their laptops?

Less sawing the old way.

Every time this comes up Kevin Drum shows statistics that say murder is up and violent crime over all is not. They almost always move in tandem but diverged for unexplained reasons in 2020 (38 last is at least a hypothesis).

https://jabberwocking.com/an-american-crime-mystery-why-is-murder-up-while-overall-violence-is-down/

https://jabberwocking.com/5838-2/

Better shots? Bigger magazines. And I wonder if stranger murder is up, or whether it's mostly DV that accounts for the increase.

All the doctors busy with covid?

I fear the answer is "domestic violence" and property crime drops when people are home more.

47 was exactly my thought.

The DV part anyway.

The DV is murder. The IV is the question.

Jesus Christ, you Americans, whether left, right, or centre, are just so sanguine about gun violence: it's apparently just sort of normal to you?

"It's a great place to visit, but it's a violent society," is what my dad used to say of the USA.

Sure, it's as American as cancer, heart disease, opioid overdoses, and getting hit by giant pickup trucks.

Gun violence obviously is terrible, but since neither protesting nor voting nor litigating are effective against it, what can we do but get on with our lives?

I keep meaning to take up archery.

I'm pissed off that our local gun ranged wormed its way out of paying property taxes by being a not-for-profit with an "educational" mission. Because teaching people how to use guns is education.

They do like taking their guns to schools.

The important distinction between education and training, and the governments at all levels that don't understand it.

I may be imagining it but I'm thinking there is movie quote along the lines of "Prepare to get educated!" (or "They're about to get educated!" or something similar) used in a manner similar to "Say hello to my lil friend."

Probably imaging it.

I didn't see Stuart Little.

I read Stuart Little to my son. It just sorta ends, like the author just got bored of it.

I love it truly, but no one could call Stuart Little a well structured book.

I guess that's why Al Pacino did the movie? I really should see it sometime.

I'll be over here in the corner snarling "he wouldn't know a mast from a mist! A deck from a dock! A luff from a leech! But hold on now, no more of this," to myself.

It never made sense to me how a human could give birth to a mouse.

The reverse seems harder.

A human absorbing a mouse up the vaginal canal and into her uterus?

Maybe I meant "inverse"?

A person crawling up the vaginal canal of the mouse? I feel like you're suggesting some sort of mouse-human-birth-moebius strip, but I want to be sure I'm hearing you correctly.

Contrapositive?

Contraception?

It never made sense to me how a human could give birth to a mouse.

Through the magic of compound interest.

I guess I should be careful even if the mouse says she's on the pill. Having to pay child support or find a hungry owl would be awkward.

If you give a mouse a child, she's going to ask for child-support payments.

We clearly don't need to discuss the obvious unit of measurement here.

I'm not saying she's a gold digger.

She just wants some cheddar.

After 15 months of support, you find out it's Kanye's.

She ain't mousin' with no broke hamsters.

I don't think mice are sufficiently different from gerbils that you can claim to have invented a novel sex act here.

That of which we cannot squeak we mice be silent.

OT: Should I get a 3rd Pfizer this week or Moderna booster at a date to be determined?

80: What was your first vaccine course?

Pfizer-Pfizer.

I can't book a Moderna appointment this weekend, though I may find a walk in.

Getting my booster (a thing d Pfizer) tomorrow

I have no idea when to get my 3rd shot. I went rogue.

I'm already eight months after my second shot.

I suppose I'm four month after my second shot. Which was four months after my first shot.

87:. I think Saiselgy says that is optimal.

The best substack is sub-optimal.

You could go retro and demand the J&J as a booster.

There's no way that makes me magnetic.

I just got my shingles vaccine today, but I have to wait for the second dose before I can safely walk on a roof.

92: I should probably do that. Let me know how it goes.

You just make sure your foot is gripping before you move the other.

And wear the right shoes.

On the shot, they said the second one usually has the side effects and I've got nothing but a minor sore arm so far. I probably should have put it off but I had already rejected the butt camera because of covid and not wanting a camera shoved up my butt. This seemed like a way to make the doctor think I'm compliant.

First shingles shot (which I got during the pandemic) was the one that laid me out. (Does it matter that I got a flu shot simultaneously?) Second was ok. Second Moderna was also a pretty big problem, and third sucked somewhat less.

Before that, I'd never had a problem with a vaccine. Must be the microchips they're inserting now.

The first warning was Nicki Minaj's cousins's friend's balls.

As it so often is.

Neither shingles shot bothered me other than some arm soreness that wasn't that bad itself.

Neither shingles shot bothered me other than some arm soreness that wasn't that bad itself.

Double posting is an acknowledged side effect though.

It's a mental thing, because it's the first experience I've had with getting healthcare for the elderly.

I mean, butt-camera should have been first, but what if there's covid on the camera and I get colon-vid?

Colona-virus?

OT: For Christmas, should I get my sister an embroidered "Please Don't Do Coke In The Bathroom" sign or caramels made from the milk of locally hand-stretched goats?

I think maybe I should have said "cross-stitched".

If you can cross stich a goat you should show off this talent, obviously. A cross, stiched, goat may not be the easiest present to house, bit it's one she'll never forget.

+t
-i+u