For this version to be true, Trump would have to believe that the National Guard had placed loyalty to Trump above loyalty to country, and the generals and officials would also have to believe that to be true.
In theory, yes, they're supposed to disobey illegal or unconstitutional orders. In practice, they're so devoted to hierarchy such disobedience would not be natural or expected - especially for rank and file, who aren't politicians like generals are.
I suppose one thing that would make version (1) a sniffable decision is if they knew Trump to have overtly said he wanted to militarily assault, imprison, or intimidate members of Congress. Then it would have been exchanging a current bad situation for the strong likelihood of one far worse.
1. I do believe that various people in the military leadership had all sorts of feels of feels and thoughts. And the hacks installled after the election (which includes Miller the main source for newly-reported info in this article--more on him below) understood in general what they were there for but a) were not clear on the ever-changing specifics* (nor was Trump of course) and b) had different degrees to which they were willing to go (fluid and undoubtedly self-serving based on assessments of likely Trump success). So a lot of confusion, miscommunication, and lack of trust. So yes, I'm sure the concerns related in the article were "out there" to some level.
2) But Miller in particular has been reputation washing like mad from starting from January of last year. So boulders of salt.
3:. Do you mean that is the possibility you would like to be true or the possibility you believe to be true? Or both?
The more I read the story, the more I think it holds up.
It seems like a lot of senior people in the military/intelligence world were worried that Trump would try to pull off a military coup and their first priority was to ensure this did not happen.
Getting the military (even the DC National Guard) involved in restoring order in the Capitol would have, at the very least, created a situation that could have been exploited by an outgoing president who wanted to use the military to stay in power. He could have used the military to prevent Congress from re-convening to certify the election result. He could have wildly exaggerated the scale of the insurrection that was taking place, lied about who was actually doing it, used that as an excuse to declare martial law or purport to suspend the constitution, and when this met with resistance from citizens, the previously false claim that the left was committing insurrection would then become partly true. In turn, more Trumpers would engage in sporadic violence all over the country, manufacturing more justification for martial law. Most ordinary people would just not know what the hell was going on. The overall chaotic situation could make it seem more politically possible to take extreme actions like having state legislatures send competing slates of electors and having Pence purport to throw out the duly elected electors.
Hopefully none of this would have worked, but clearly Trump was crazy and stupid enough to try it, so I can see how the uppermost priority of anyone high in the military, defense, or intelligence bureaucracies would and perhaps should have been to prevent him from having any opportunity to pull it off.
So, when the insurrection happened and the Capitol Police were overwhelmed, there were probably some furious arguments going on behind the scenes at the Pentagon, between those who wanted to prevent the military being used for a potential coup, those who wanted to put down the actually occurring insurrection ASAP, and those who were in on the potential coup attempt. All of which looked like dysfunction and paralysis from the outside. So yeah, I'm buying this.
I don't think any of us can really say what would have happened if Pence had rejected electoral votes. There's a ready mechanism to correct this, and maybe all hell would have broken loose, giving Trump the kernel of an insurrection from the Left that he so badly needed.
I've been saying that the Q Shaman saved democracy. So did making Gen. Milley participate in the Lafayette Square photo op.
7: This thread by Josh Marshall (and for TPM members the article being discussed) sre a good read and somewhat summarize my evolving position. When I first read about it I was convinced it was just Chris Miller reputation laundering bullshit, but coming around from reading here and elsewhere.
I do think CC in 7.2 may have it right. I would more like democracy temporarily reprieved.
Oops, link.
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1474054721509859328?s=21
It is kind of impressive in retrospect that in his last yearbTrump was almost certainly looking for completely servile minions to run the military, and had stopped being influenced by people like Kelly, but the people he got like Miller and Esper, while they may have been servile, were almost certainly not anticipating his needs like he wanted.
TBH this has always been more or less my take on the Nat'l Guard stand down.The 1/06 attack was scarier than I'd expected, but it never stood a chance of accomplishing its goals on its own--there always needed to be another element, whether antifa getting into scraps that complicated the public perception of what happened, or a better plan for Pence to execute*, or, indeed, the military getting involved.
We know, and surely the generals know, that (some) active duty soldiers are involved in rightwing/antidemocratic shit. So it's not as if there's uncertainty on whether 100% loyalty is assured--it wasn't. It's not that I really think the Guard shows up, T calls on them to occupy the Capitol, and they get to work ending democracy. But I think it's a chaotic situation, and there's little evidence that introducing the Guard eliminates the chaos.
I do think that reinforcing the Capitol Police in advance would have been an unalloyed good, but ISTM that inadequate prep for 1/06 was a widespread failure, just a refusal to admit where the evidence is taking you. But once shit got ugly, I'd have hesitated as well.
PS - Hi, guys! All is well, no news here, just checking in.
*I'm really ambivalent about what would've happened if Pence had acquiesced to the Meadows PPT plan, but it was still a plan based on 1. We break all the rules, 2. Our opponents follow all the rules, 3. We win. Which isn't implausible, but certainly isn't bulletproof. So to speak.
I see that my take was unassailable and, indeed, the last word on the subject.