Still too early to tell the macro benefit. COVID hospitalizations in the UK increased 23% last Sunday 19 Dec. and another 16% Monday 20 Dec. (815, 1,004, 1,171).

The case rate in Florida looks absolutely asymptotic. This thing is really bonkers contagious.

But I bet after omicron, we have herd immunity, because it'll rip through absolutely everyone.

Ripping through everyone is likely to result in a new more resistant strain though, just like how we got omicron.

I think it will be far worse in the US than the UK. Here we do have pretty high vaccination rates, and they keep people out of hospital. This is just as well because the infection itself keeps the staff out of the hospital (see earlier comment about Ipswich). But I am now feeling moderately human after five days of symptoms, two or three of them very unpleasant. Weak, sleepy, stupid, but not in physical pain, And neither Ume nor the parents of the girl who presumably infected me have tested positive yet. So I think their boosters were close enough in time still to be effective -- as an officially vulnerable person I had an early booster, and much earlier shots before that, which gave them more time to lose efficacy. [off stage, a cough from Alanis Morisette. "You OK, Alanis?"]

The isolation rule has been modified to let you out after two negative LFTs six and seven days after the first positive test. That's an, uh 30% reduction in the period health care workers are off duty, which probably sucks for them but is good for public health.

The hospitalisations and still more the death rates are rising from a very low base, and the most recent figures I saw suggested that the strain on the hospitals in January will not be as great as it was after the last time Johnson "saved Christmas". And we got through that.

My impression is that there are fewer grounds for cautious optimism in the US. As much as anything, I blame that on private health insurance. but that's another story,

4: as far as we know, omicron emerged somewhere in southern Africa, where successive strains had already ripped through everyone. I don't think the outcome in the rich world will change the prevalence of horror in the poor one.

6: I'm confused, how is that inconsistent with my 4? If you mean that infection doesn't confer great immunity, yes, that's also true, and all else being equal it's better if we can slow mutation so our vaccines don't eventually need reformulation. If we rich US fucks had gotten off our butts and vaccinated the world faster, we might not have gotten the South Africa mutation.

Sorry. I thought you were talking about the US, which it seemed that Heebie was; and my point was that some kind of herd immunity in the US wouldn't stop the generation of new strains elsewhere. Which appears to have been your point all along. So, comity.

There are people who know a lot more than me around here, but my understanding is that omicron -- oh, fuck, brain fog: what I'd like to know is what are the selective pressures that lead to more dangerous mutations and what are the public health measures conducive to these bad outcomes. I know that with eg TB and HIV a lot of the problem is people taking half courses of antibiotics/antivirals. But that can't be the problem among the wholly unvaccinated.

Has anyone tried to bless the rain?

Which, to be honest, would take more ego than I have to attempt. Even leaving aside the whole history of colonialism, that's a big continent with a lot of rain.

I'm going to take some time to do the things we never had.

That's also bothered me.

On the topic, I'm a little optimistic that a bad January-February might buy us another period of near-normal even if it does not bring full herd immunity.

Animals also get it -- big cats in zoos, notably. So there's always going to be a reservoir

We're not have any kind of wave at all yet, but of course we well. With any luck, I'll miss getting Om between now and Jan 21 when I leave town. And then not have it when it's time to fly home.

And now Omicron can infect rodents. There's just so many reservoirs. Mink have been a big one for the whole pandemic. White-tailed Deer too. I think we should basically expect some version of covid in just about every major mammal group within a few years.

I keep expecting to see some headline about rats with Omicron in NYC, but it seems like nothing yet.

the case rate in sf is vertiginous climb, just straight up. hospitalizations haven't climbed yet, but if they take off here with our high vaccination (and i suspect boosted) rate, then the rest of the u.s. is going to be absolutely gold plated certified fucked.

i got a contract tracing ping from the swim club last sunday, luckily the sauna is on the fritz so i was never in there and was only briefly unmasked in the shower (can't take more than a tepid rinse when the water is 52f and below, it just messes with my head). but still, they gave me a 9 hour window!!! absurd, particularly bc we all have to tap our key cards on the way in (and if you haven't provided proof of vaccination they've turned off your key card). i did finally get my entry time and that of the person who subsequently tested positive and we didn't overlap, thank god. we've splurged on our rapid tests in anticipation of christmas eve dinner with my stepdaughter, her partner and their two year old and i am really, really looking forward to it.

much warm sympathy to lb, natilo, heebie (your mom's situation is heartbreaking) and everyone going through a rough holiday. i recommend the singing in the king's college service this year as particularly glorious. the soloist who kicks it off has the chops and the nerves, that kid. plays the air in that church like anything. my only disappointment is that they didn't broadcast all the increasingly wild organ pieces at the end - go big or go home, bbc!

uggh. My wife's been suffering through preeclampsia for the last 3 weeks in the hospital, and if there's an omicron wave coming I expect we'll be surfing it from either Labor & Delivery or the NICU. Which are across the street from the hospital for grownups, which might insulate the facility a tiny bit, and it's a renowned and well-resourced university hospital, which I'd think will provide more insulation. But I guess we'll be staring down staffing shortages here too, and a premature and growth-restricted baby with possible immune and respiratory deficits. In other words, I delurk to bring you all holiday cheer in this optimism thread :(

Yikes, sorry to hear that you're in such a tough situation, KM. Hope it works out well.

Jesus, km. Very much sympathies from here.

Oh man. Hope your baby grows strongly and sturdily. And that the hospital takes good care of your whole family.

oh kn! sending strong heartwaves!!! 💓💓💓

Kymyz, that's so scary. I'm sorry. Hi from 1-2 miles away, though.

At any rate I'm tentatively optimistic, but what I'd really like to see is some evidence that Omicron infection protects against Delta. We know Omicron is great at evading immunity to other variants, but I don't think we know if that's because Omicron is just very different or because it's doing something special. In the former case we should expect Delta to keep on going after the Omicron wave, but the more optimistic scenario is that Delta levels go down too. The annoying thing is we can't use SA (the only place that's past its Omicron peek) as a comparison because they had already gotten very low levels of Delta (probably by everyone getting it).

What a rough situation for KM, wishing you the best. Neonatal units have gotten really good at what they do.

dq, Wachter thread you might want to read. He thinks so far it seems plausible (and not too-early-to-tell) that SF's high vaccination rate is forestalling a hospitalization wave; with Delta it would have come by now. He quotes someone else suggesting the same for NYC. But also possible that people are getting tested earlier because of Christmas, increasing lag from case rise to hospitalizations.

Still, high rate of community spread: of UCSF asymptomatic patients (who come in for something other than COVID), 5% are infected in the last few days. So non-vaccinated areas are probably in for a tough time.

The hospitalization data out of Denmark right now is very good. All the way at the bottom end of their projections. Obviously high vaccination rates are playing a role, but it really looks like Omicron doesn't have the same high hospitalization rates that Delta has.

Sending waves of energy/fortune, KM.

JP, you were the one spending time on Herman Cain Awards, right? If so you'll probably like this (schadenfreude without the death part).

Thank you all. I guess this is one of the best neonatology units anywhere, and we're far enough into gestation that the calendar won't faze them, I'm sure. But man, buying time with pain is...grueling. I will accept waves of energy/fortune from 1-2 miles away (enjoy the lovely weather, Heebie!) and wherever else you internet people are.

We made it! My three year old is fine, none of her contacts have tested positive, We can leave the house again and spirits are lifted!

Oh, KM, I'm sorry. Gravid and non-eclamptic vibes to you.

27: I think Moby is the Herman Cain aficionado. Anyway it's not me.

We're here in The Villages so not overly far from ancestral heebieville (which we brushed past driving down). It's striking me as less dyspleasantopian than last time we were here.

I seem to have had a very mild dose. For days in bed but just feeling weak today.

We took another test and it came back negative, so it looks like we just have a weirdly timed mild cold. It's still a bit weird because the symptoms were a bit different than a normal cold, but I guess there's lots of versions of colds out there.

28: Best wishes to mother, baby, and you.

I was the Herman Cain reader, but I gave it to for Advent. Probably still stay away even though Advent is over.

Merry Christmas.

Our holiday travel plans blew up--one of the New Year's Eve party hosts has omicron, and we were already feeling trepidatious about the likelihood of being trapped on the West Coast due to a quarantine and Jane missing a week-plus of school -- but after the incredible peppering of contact notices from Jane's school last week we're still negative here. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate!

I just read a story about northeast Ohio hospitals. Stay safe.

The story was about how overwhelmed they were, in case the subtext wasn't clear.

36: The town I am moving to posted their case counts for the schools. They stayed pretty low for a long time and then it was a huge surge of like 40 per day, and they closed school early. This is a highly vaccinated town too.

37: Was that the one where the Timescdid a perfect self-parody?

CLEVELAND -- As a fast-spreading new strain of the coronavirus swarms across the country, hospitals in Ohio running low on beds and staff recently took out a full-page newspaper advertisement pleading with unvaccinated Americans to finally get the shot. It read, simply: "Help."

But in a suburban Ohio café, Jackie Rogers, 58, an accountant, offered an equally succinct response on behalf of unvaccinated America: "Never."

No. It was a Cleveland paper.

40 looking forward to reading his obit.

happy christmas everyone who celebrates & v warm seasonal good wishes to all! we scored neg tests all round so had eve dinner with stepdaughter, her lovely & beloved partner & absolutely delightful 2yr old who in my thoroughly biased opinion is all that & more 😍😍😍. got an excellent snuggly gorgeous kiss, so delicious.

Merry Christmas! We're watching football and ordering Chinese food, in accordance with tradition. I'm also making red and green chile stew for later.

On account of all the brunch restaurants being closed, we're having green chile eggs and potatoes for breakfast tomorrow, I was just saying it's too bad it's too late to try to get red chile too for christmas.

It's nice that green chile is so much easier to get these days outside of NM, but yeah, it would be nice to be able to get red chile too. The stuff I used this time was sent by my mom.

We just flew to Florida. Look for a spike in Cook county right around the new year.

I have successfully avoided going to Florida since 1987.

I know I went to Florida when I was very small (certainly before 1987) and can't remember going there any time since.

I'm feeling better; Ume tested positive this morning, with a scratchy throat and a general seediness., So bang goes our planned New Year with friends.

50: Sorry to hear it. Did you guy make any attempt to isolate from each other with masks Or is just impossible to do? I'm figuring that if Tim if I ever get it, there's no way the other will escape.

51: pre-omicron, I've been saying it's totally possible, on the basis that we masked up in the house and Pokey never spread it to anyone else, and Pokey's friend never spread it to his family. (The friend isolated in his bedroom instead of donning masks through out.) They're both in 5th grade, so not quite contagious like adults, but not nothing.

With omicron, all bets are off, though, I think.

49: I didn't say I was the best at it. Just that I'm doing well.

51: hard to say. My nephew never got it even with the rest of the household down and not isolating. And we've managed isolated cases of flu and strep here. But omicron is so contagious it seems more inevitable (especially with kids.)

Not every morning, but at least half of them, I wake up with a scratchy throat and feeling like crap. We really need some more specific symptoms.

51 and 54: We are moving to a 3 bedroom house with a couple of spare rooms, but we're in a 1 bedroom with one bath right now. The windows open but there's no cross breeze. A HEPA filter is just about our only ventilation, so I don't think we could have an infectious person take off their mask in the apartment (to eat, say) and not infect the other. Maybe people in proper houses can actually do it with Delta. Even pre-omicron I didn't think we could.

And omicron is just crazy. One of the towns near me closed the schools 2 days early for Christmas, because the cases in the schools exploded so much.

55: Or tests cheap enough to take every morning. Except that I've heard that some vaccinated people are getting symptoms a day before they test positive on a rapid antigen test. So, if you feel like crap and are infected with something, you should stay home. The problem is the allergies, generally feeling like crap with a scratchy throat issue that you raise.

I think they need to do like the arthritis people do and for some symptoms ask about what they are like a half an hour after you get out of bed.

57: ugh, the testing. Pebbles' school had rapid tests on site but our only option for the Calabat was to spend the morning waiting for the rapid test at the clinic and kids get sniffles all the time. Our personal "get tested" barometer was feeling unusually bad or any fever/cough, which seemed to work well enough pre-omicron, but a cold that's indistinguishable from allergies/air quality is going to be tough to catch.

FWIW, with Delta, the chance of household transmission, when everyone is fully vaccinated is around 25% -- https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59077036

That said, I don't know how much control one has. There's a strong element of luck in how contagious a given person is. If one of us tested positive, I don't know that we'd be able to isolate effectively, and I think it's likely (and unfortunate) that we'd probably both get it. But the evidence (pre Omicron) suggests that it's not inevitable.

My son just tested positive and has the omicron symptoms. My wife and I are both negative. We are boosted and he is merely double-vaxxed, because 15 year olds aren't eligible for a booster.

We are trying to figure out just how isolated we should keep him. It seems cruel to shut him in a room by himself over winter break, and if its inevitable that my wife and I are going to get this, I'd rather not do that. On the other hand, if we could avoid getting it, that would be even better.

If it were me I'd just all quarantine together. It's going to be really hard to avoid getting it, better to get it quickly and get it over with so that you can all leave quarantine around the same time. And then you've gotten your "Omicron booster," and should be home free in terms of being safe from covid for the foreseeable future. Assuming you're low-risk, since you're boosted there's not a huge public health benefit to you not getting it, and if you all stay quarantined you're unlikely to spread it outside the family.

I have no idea, but I'm guessing at some point in the next month, I'll be in the same situation.

At this point I'm thinking yesterday I spent prolonged time in close quarters with him when he may have been at the height of his virus shedding. So I'll either get it from that or I wont, in which case I probably won't get it from him now that we are aware of it and have the fans running.

You could already have it and it's just not gotten far enough for the test to find it.

WE didn't practice any sort of mutual quarantine, partly because we had both been exposed to the person we think gave it me; partly because Ume didn't think the risk of Omicron was worth spending Christmas passing me meals on a tray under the door. We did both isolate from everyone else all last week.

In this part of the country, lateral flow tests are free and mostly available. I got a PCR on Tuesday last week and the result the next day. But since we're both double vaxxed and boosted, the risk of hospitalisation or worse seemed very low.

I don't know what we'd have done a year ago.

62 makes sense to me on the limited information over got. Quarantine together is good for morale.

61:I'm sorry. I'd quarantine the house, but not the kid, on the perhaps faulty assumption that I'd already been exposed before the kid was officially positive. We're both boosted and otherwise lowish risk.

sticking a 15 year old in a room by themselves is inhumane - with boostered adults & no risk factors i'd just run an air filter to lessen the viral load & power through.

NW, best to Ume and I'm glad you're OK.

Spike, ugh, I'm sorry. That all sucks. I suspect 62 is right. The numbers on asymptomatic infection in boosted individuals are pretty high, so unless you're pretty dedicated to a testing regimen, you may never know whether you have had it or not.

We're (foolishly, maybe?) getting on a plane tomorrow to LA, assuming the flight isn't cancelled. The caseload there has tripled in the past week or so. At least the weather is nice enough there that outdoor activities seem like a reasonable option. I went looking for rapid tests a few weeks ago but everywhere is out, so now I'm trying to ration the one test I have left.

I do suspect this is the round we all get sick, but I'd rather not get sick away from home if I can help it . . .

71: My boss was really excited about EvuSheld, but that appears to be in short supply and some of the other monoclonals aren't working, and she's just terrified.

If it doesn't work, they should recycle the name for something related to birth control.

Holy moly, the Kennedy Space Center today; packed in rooms with a hundred people. Never removed our N95s, but it will be a straight miracle if we don't get it.

61, 62: guidance over here is that everyone in the household must quarantine if one person gets it - basically, making the same assumption as 62.

Which side of the border are you?

That's is it's not called the Kennedy Personal Space Center.

sticking a 15 year old in a room by themselves is inhumane

I agree with the consensus on this, but if I am remembering my 15-year old self correctly, pretty much all I wanted was to be left entirely alone.

Well I spent last evening miserable and passed out on the couch but I seem to be doing better now. Maybe that was it?

I will test again later today and see if it comes up positive this time.

Were you drinking?

Alcohol kills germs, right?

Speaking of drinking, last night one of my brother's got into a fight with the other brother and ended up pouring half a 1.75 liter bottle of Woodford's down the drain. It was a Christmas present from the brother he got into a fight with. (The night before he was fighting with me but I retired to the spare bedroom early last night so I mercifully missed this bit of family drama.

It's one thing to be mean to family, but that's just a waste.

I know, he was going to leave it here at the folk's place and I'd planned on having a drink or two.

it's not called the Kennedy Personal Space Center

A popular item there was a NASA "I need my space" t shirt.

I'd probably buy one.

I went to the Kennedy Space Center with my nephews back in July. A good time. My dad worked on some of those projects, notably the LEM.

Well, I scored another negative on this antigen test, which had been mailed to me for free by the government, thanks to our Democratic Senator running for re-election. I still think I had it, just maybe succeeded in fighting it off with the first volley.

My son seems to be doing better, very slight lingering cough. We have no idea who we are supposed to tell that he's had covid, it doesn't seem like information on positive antigen test cases like his is actually being collected either by the state or the school system. Maybe we will schlep him out for a PCR test in a few days, but why break quarantine to do that?

Get him tested before you take him to see Spiderman.

We actually took him to see Spiderman last week. Crowded theater, we were wearing masks but not many other people were. He could have picked it up there, although I think the timing works better with the "picked it up at school" theory.

Never shout "Covid" in a crowded theatre.

3 negative tests as we flee central Fla and head north. I think Fla county numbers still only updated once a week so not really sure of situation. Rapid rises already recorded in Orlando area (an hour or so south of us). More masking in The Villages than might be expected on just partisan lean (also vax rates) but still pretty casual.

And of course where we are going through and to are a mess as weii.

Omnibiquitous.

We left Florida without testing.

Excuse me . Omibiquitous. I *so* want that that 'n' to be there.

omnigod, how embarrassing.

(I like to sing "Omicron, yes omicron" to the tune of Tribe Called Quest's "Oh My God" in my head.)

I am at my computer and ready to post, but the only thing that I can think to post is on the new CDC guidelines, and that hardly seems worth yet another Omicron post.

I think I'll just post a check in thread, instead.

The state COVID tracker still hasn't been updated for data since 12/23, so four days and counting. Holiday weekend obviously, but the normal time to catch up would have been yesterday.

I tested clear this lunchtime, which is good. Another clear LFT tomorrow afternoon and I can go out to the shops

How's Ume doing?

No temperature this morning, but aches, scratchy throat, seediness. She did get up and do some work. The leftovers have run out, so I will be cooking.

101: What does "seediness" mean in British English. In the US, one would describe an area as seedy if it was a bit rough or a person as seedy if they were an unsavory character.

I have a seedy bagel.

I've gone to seed

I've gone to cede.

My antivax brother, his vaccinated wife, and their under-5 kid all got it before Christmas. One other brother and his three kids (adults boosted, two kids vaccinated, one under 5) are now at my parents having come from her family in Chicago and after two days there my sister-in-law just rapid tested positive. No one else in the house is positive yet, but presumably all 7 of them will get it. My other brother still hasn't flown in, not sure if he's still going. Feeling pretty solid about our decision to skip, getting home would have been such a pain.

Rapid tests are useful prevention for like a two-hour get together, but are pretty useless if you're going to go stay with someone. It'll often be too early when you take it before arriving, but by the time you test positive everyone will have gotten it. And you can't take them every two hours for several days.

The virus' presence in my house seems to have missed my elderly mother's visit by about 24 hours. Dodged a bullet there.

102 - physically decayed, like the neighbourhood, rather than seediness of character. Run down, blecch might be the US phrase, in some idiolects at least.

I imagine Texans are constantly storing out the door yelling "I'm going to cede!" Wait, no, secede.

We spent Christmas wwith the elderly and then saw Spiderman.

I have some congestion and sound like Thurl Ravenscroft, but tested negative both last week (before picking up my mother-in-law for Christmas) and today, so I think it's really just a cold.

111: Somehow that's not a Harry Potter name.

I imagine Texans are constantly storing out the door yelling "I'm going to cede!" Wait, no, secede.

No, concede.

I thought they never surrendered. (Heebie prepares to die on the hill that Taxans can, too, surrender)

Based on a very casual glance at the numbers Kevin Drum summarizes at the bottom of this post it looks like COVID prevalence has flip-flopped again, and now blue states are stricken while red states are lagging. NYC's prevalence 32x that of South Carolina's. Does anyone have an explanation for this?

I think right now the cases numbers are a combo of "connectedness" and weather (secondarily and probably still showing a lot of delta effects). And also reflect new omicron imposed on existing delta patterns.

During the delta wave, the hospitalizations/cases ratio (or deaths/cases) ratios looked to me to be generally correlated with red/blue (so even as the case numbers soared in the north with seasonal changes the ratio generally was a proxy for vaccination rate).
Now with the recent huge omicron upticks and lagginess of Hospitalizations/deaths (and possible "mildness") those ratios are kind of a mess. (Right now they are even *much* lower for all the high case rate growth states which are generally the most "connected" ones.)

We'll see how things evolve. I think cases rates will become eve less reliable with the uptick in home testing. A lot of things are iffy about the data in already of course. such as per a recent article some county coroners in (generally) red high covid areas not reporting any (or very few) deaths as being from covid.

Whatever, the data and patterns will be messy and require nuance to untangle.

Fortunately, the discourse in this country about interactions of politics, health and statistics is all about the nuance.

115: The vaccines still protect against severe disease with omicron, but there is more immune evasion, so even triple vaxxed are getting it. With delta a booster was 90% efficacious against *infection*. W/ omicron one or 2 shots ("fully"vaccinated) doesn't do much against infection.

The Northrast is cold, and people are inside.

116: I also suspect some folks in red states are not bothering to test if they have mild or moderate symptoms. Hospital admissions are going to require testing, of course, but I suspect we're going to see some meaningful differences over time. I mean, from a selfish perspective, there isn't really an upside to testing, is there?

115: My explanation is that transmission of Omicron is radiating out from major transportation hubs. It'll look like the first round geographically for a while. NY/NJ, Miami, Chicago, LA, etc.

118: I was wrong to say 90% efficacious against infection. It was symptomatic disease.

119: When Paxlovid is readily available, there might be an upside from a selfish perspective. Get tested, get your however-many-day course and feel better.

I had a very vivid dream last night that I had covid but was largely asymptomatic, and I kept finding myself in various public situations without wearing a mask and realizing "Oh shit! I can't be here!" and also not being able to leave very easily because I was putting a high priority on social etiquette and saving face, and so I was just sticking it out and squirming.

so I was just sticking it out and squirming.

Hawt!!!

120 is clearly what's happening. Same as the original outbreak. Delta spread much slower because vaccination was so effective and so it passed through the hubs into the rest of the country without visible spikes in the hubs.

I tested negative at the airport Friday morning, I still have to get another PCR test here though.