I should have told Vint that he and Bob ought to drop the whole "internet" thing. (Vint did apologize for not including security but it was too late.)
There was a particular before-and-after most shared articles on Facebook image going around, which was not lying but was cherry-picked. Old people on Facebook don't need Russian troll farms to make terrible conservative takes and agitprop go viral; it's just a modest accelerant. (And my understanding is that Facebook troll farms and result manipulation sites have set up shop outside Russia now.)
No thank you, I'm looking for a more optimistic reality.
Old people on Facebook don't need Russian troll farms
They are bit players compared to Fox News.
5: ...which is surely praying for some black people to protest something so they can shift focus.
I've heard that there's less pro ivermectin stuff on Twitter, but I can't quantify it.
Ivermectin is a friend of mine. I like to drink it with some salt and lime.
The propaganda pipeline is two way. The Ukr bio labs garbage came from homegrown (anti vax? IMNRTC), amplified by some fringe waning, and then Russia. And then back here. Human centipede except it's a series of tubes.
2, 5: My understanding is that FB manipulation* really does accelerate the departure from reality, but that for the most part it doesn't drive overall position. But Fox does drive position.
IOW, watching Fox makes decent (old) people into asshole Republicans, but FB makes asshole Republicans into Qanon fantasists. From an electoral POV, FB probably doesn't matter much relative to Fox, but from a batshit people making the world worse POV, FB really does damage.
*the troll farms both create batshit content that gets shared and manipulate the algorithm into putting both those things and homegrown shit like the Virgin Ben into peoples' feeds. Pace 2, I'm a bit skeptical that they can seamlessly transition all of their function abroad, since at least some of the work is actually semi-skilled.
6: via Twitter
Antifa types are going to Ukraine and receiving training, probably from Ukrainian forces trained by the US. When they come home, they end up being the ones most likely to participate in BLM/anarchist stuff--
From a Chronicles magazine guy associated with the Charlemagne Institute.
Sorry if this is a cop-out contrary to the spirit of a predictions thread but it's too early to say. Three months from now Putin could be dead of natural causes (lots of speculation about health issues), Caesared by some of his generals, celebrating the aftermath of the successful conquest of Ukraine, in the middle of a radioactive crater, or in basically the same position he's in right now. Any of those would have a huge impact on the right-wing noise machine, to use the older/more general term.
At this point I'm assuming that the war in Ukraine continues to go badly for Russia for several weeks if not months longer, but doesn't directly involve NATO. If so, I'd forecast losing, I don't know, let's say 30 seats in the House and gaining 2 or 3 seats in the Senate, just due to gerrymandering, who's up for reelection, and general trends. If Republicans and Putin embarrass themselves enough, maybe Democrats would gain 4 or 5 seats in the Senate instead. Maybe the Republican House majority would be slim enough and/or internally divided enough that a vote to impeach Biden would fail in the House.
12: Also tens of thousands of dead Ukrainian civilians, not to make it all about the US political horse race.
Ukraine's been a real mixture of hope, sadness, and dread, and guilt for the hope amidst the sadness.
14: and anger! So much anger! Life-shortening levels of chronic anger! (I may see it in others more than I experience it myself, as I certainly do, but... wow.)