So damn terrifying. How close did she come to winning the last time?
[after checking Guardian] Phew! I thought I missed some bad news.
Nah, just anticipating the weekend chatter.
The second round of the election is Sunday the 24th. I don't want to be complacent about anything on general principles, especially not right-wing politics ever since Trump. That being said, Le Pen isn't within 10 points of Macron in polls (source), and I can't help assuming that recent news would hurt the more pro-Russia, anti-NATO candidate. So... worry, but don't despair?
Personal side, not like it's relevant to anyone else: I'll be at a wedding on the 24th, and while the wedding isn't actually in Europe, the wedding party includes a German reporter and several other people who work in news, so I think it's somewhat more plugged into European politics than the average Americans. If there's bad news from France, obviously the impact on this wedding will be the least important thing about it, but I can't help but think the event was cursed. It has had a number of problems. For one thing it was pushed back 2 years due to covid. For another, just last month the couple found out that the caterer they were under contract with didn't have ovens. So why not have to deal with weakening NATO too?
Long-term despair. Her father got 18% of the vote in 2002. She got 34% in 2017, and if the polls are right, she'll get about 43% this year. It feels like the long slow runup to the BJP taking over India.
Yeah, it feels like the long-term trend is that these far-right nationalist parties just are the rightward pole of politics even in countries that maintain robust democratic systems. You can see it in the US with the Trumpification of the GOP. It's scary because it means they will come into power from time to time, and when they do they'll try to dismantle the democratic system however they can.
And I cannot think of any way to reduce environmental damage, starting with atmospheric CO2 and working down to "fecal coliform in your drinking water yes/no?", that doesn't rile these people up and get them more voters. Despair.
This will always remain one of the best jokes of democracy--that it gave its deadly enemies the means by which it was destroyed.
--Josef Goebbels
I don't want to start canceling people, but it's good to keep in mind that a lot of people find his views problematic.
As is being recognized more and more.
Polls are closed and projections (apparently very reliable in France) are 58.2%-41.8%, no upset, Le Pen a little low end of polls.
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1518288659132342272?t=qeCG7K4m6iLfS0Ilq_4G4w&s=19
whew sigh of relief etc but there are some really troubling trends in that thread.
hopefully the france insoumise--pcf-greens coalition for the legislatives holds, grows & produces results but given the institutionally supine nature if the leg branch in the fifth republic it is unlikely to put serious pressure on macron from the left.
cole strangler is good on discontents with neoliberalism & hence macron, goldhammer sadly increasingly uninformative for any analysis.
here is goldhammer being obtuse: https://twitter.com/artgoldhammer/status/1517870119392792581?t=Cxv4lPoJTHSagbDSa6W0vQ&s=19
summary: the middle class as a monolith - no effort to differentiate by age, housing or professional stability/prospects, urban/rural - benefitted mildly in the aggregate from tax reform so why unhappy with the disproportionate benefits handed to the wealthy & large capital?
contrast e.g. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/19/france-regional-elections-national-rally-far-right-provence/ .