There's not a lot of dramatic action recently. As expected, Russia has pulled back from the north and regrouped in the east, where it's been moving forward and capturing territory but very very slowly. There are some signs of a Ukrainian counter-offensive further south around Kherson, but it's hard to tell the scale of that or what difference it's likely to make. It's likely to continue like this for a while. It's not quite a stalemate but changes are incremental and it's not clear which side is doing better at any given time.
Severodonetsk, or what's left of it, is now falling to the Russians in large part because Ukrainian forces seem to have decided not to fight to the last the way they did in Mariupol, but instead to save resources for counteroffensives elsewhere. This seems like a good decision, but media will probably make a big deal out of it because that was the last holdout in Luhansk and once it's down, Putin and/or the fake republic will be able to claim control of the entire oblast.
I'm most interested in the counteroffensive around Kherson but as teo says it's not clear what's actually underway.
Thanks for 2. I've been able to determine the fall of Severodonetsk isn't a strategic setback for Ukraine, but lacked any other real context.
Seems like Ru is still suffering severe losses and the medium-term the balance will tilt in Ukr's favor. Longer-term seems more risky since I would guess that Trump will work hard to undermine NATO.
3: I'm also thinking not a strategic setback, because the place the Ukrainians have fallen back to is on the other side of a river on higher ground that's difficult to approach.
Hard pounding through the summer, it will probably be difficult to tell much of anything for a while.
Any ceasefire, though, is likely to just be a pause to re-arm. The present Russian government seems to have defined the existence of Ukraine as a problem; that won't change until the RF government changes.
Gah. I really prefer living in a Europe that isn't fighting (much) over ownership of territory.
I'm late to this thread but wanted to post a link:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/how-western-heavy-weaponry-can-make-a-difference-in-the-war-in-ukraine/
TLDR version:
"As Austria-based warfare expert Tom Cooper said on June 1 that "by July or August the Ukrainian army is going to have one of most potent artillery corps in Europe, at least by standards from before Feb. 24, 2022."
So retreating to a geographically favorable site for a bit does not look like a bad idea.
6: Potentially we're going to learn this summer whether the latest & greatest in firepower is a different-in-kind upgrade over the previous generation, or just a bit more efficient. The tank corps will remain near parity, but it's at least possible that the artillery edge will be (locally) decisive.
Putin just fired five more generals so things can't be all bad:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-axes-5-generals-russian-060253648.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF05pFFCPKfqEBknYV5CsygdKGN8as1gJT5Yorb8hYDnAZh28W_ykX-29nG_KCjHc8jf3LZNAAi16d1uRJQB7G5iEehZh6_WzYHjvBsNRKHPkxXUh4cQPrC6Uumc2WJMhYFekMwzHgEvQD9v02OwCK4nnbve0-AIw33zTDrd3C_l&guccounter=1
Putin just fired five more generals so things can't be all bad:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-axes-5-generals-russian-060253648.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF05pFFCPKfqEBknYV5CsygdKGN8as1gJT5Yorb8hYDnAZh28W_ykX-29nG_KCjHc8jf3LZNAAi16d1uRJQB7G5iEehZh6_WzYHjvBsNRKHPkxXUh4cQPrC6Uumc2WJMhYFekMwzHgEvQD9v02OwCK4nnbve0-AIw33zTDrd3C_l&guccounter=1
Putin just fired five more generals so things can't be all bad:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-axes-5-generals-russian-060253648.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF05pFFCPKfqEBknYV5CsygdKGN8as1gJT5Yorb8hYDnAZh28W_ykX-29nG_KCjHc8jf3LZNAAi16d1uRJQB7G5iEehZh6_WzYHjvBsNRKHPkxXUh4cQPrC6Uumc2WJMhYFekMwzHgEvQD9v02OwCK4nnbve0-AIw33zTDrd3C_l&guccounter=1
Putin just fired five more generals so things can't be all bad:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-axes-5-generals-russian-060253648.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF05pFFCPKfqEBknYV5CsygdKGN8as1gJT5Yorb8hYDnAZh28W_ykX-29nG_KCjHc8jf3LZNAAi16d1uRJQB7G5iEehZh6_WzYHjvBsNRKHPkxXUh4cQPrC6Uumc2WJMhYFekMwzHgEvQD9v02OwCK4nnbve0-AIw33zTDrd3C_l&guccounter=1
It can be really hard for a senior person to find a new job when they are over 50. Everyone assumes if they were fired they must have been bad at the senior level and also that they will sooner or later be spiteful and ineffective at a less senior position.
omg. What just happened? This is bad, even for me. Apologies times 5 or 6 . . .
The site does that a lot lately -- it's not just you.
lily, I think it's canonical to blame Moby's phone.
Further to 2, it now seems likely that the Ukrainians are already mounting a counteroffensive and have, rather to my surprise, taken back large bits of Severodonetsk.
What's interesting is what's happening with artillery aid; Russia has completely lost control of escalation there. Putin keeps posturing and warning about how the latest batch of aid, whether that is guns or rockets or whatever, is very dangerous and could lead to a wider war, and gets ignored, and then... doesn't do anything. He simply isn't able to plausibly intimidate anyone any more.