The Needle is ready.

something something on your mind something
something something peach something
something something midnight train something

1: Thanks but I'm freebasing.

2: Thanks but you're freestyling.

I try to think how I'd vote if the shoe were on the other foot, so to speak. I think Alabama Republicans got it right when some of them refused to vote for a child molester. That would have been too far for me, too. But a brain-damaged Democrat? I'd vote for him, no question. So I think Walker has a shot!

But it's certainly easier to stay home when the fate of the senate isn't riding on your pro-life vote for a serial abortion-facilitator.

That was less convoluted in my head.

A brain-damaged Democrat who had proven conclusively not to embody their ostensibly core values? (Serious question. I think the answer is probably "yes" for me, but I'm not sure. A brain-damaged union-busting Democrat who claims that being pro-labor is a core part of their political identity? Would I vote for that person? I hope not, but maybe so.)

8 to 5, obv.

who had proven conclusively not to embody their ostensibly core values

Is this a reference to Walker's continence issues, abortions, etc.? If so, "ostensibly" gets it right. What could be more in their core values than hurting women you got pregnant?

"Walker's continence issues"
The pee tape is real.

What's the best tv or radio coverage that I can stream while working? The tv is in a different room.

NYT is saying that walker's chance of winning is growing.

Pretty incredible how lopsided some of the early vote/absentee counts have been this year. Not an original observation but when I was younger it was taken as fact that absentee votes skewed Republican.

13: But still less than 25%, Bright Side McGee.

But a brain-damaged Democrat? I'd vote for him, no question.

I campaigned for one.

So far it's looking very close but Warnock has the advantage.

14: True continuously pre-Trump, I thought! Not super lopsided, but usually more R than the electorate.

Dave Wasserman thinks that Walker is hitting about the numbers he needs in the very rural parts of the state, but in the small cities and other not quite metro areas, he's doing worse than before.

MSNBC said Walker was doing better than before in the very red, rural parts.

The needle has been paused to investigate a "data issue"

Well that is scary.

Great, now we are going to get a whole "it was rigged" narrative built around the needle.

We were going to get that around something or other anyway.

And they paused with Walker up by 4k.

that was me.

19- almost every tweet from him in the last hour has been "great readily for Warnock" with one exception.

Great result

Warnock's back up, phew.

The needle supports Warnock in emails:
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1600317229153030145?s=46&t=Uem6DAuH1qrmJI00rfAcHQ

Wasserman said the line. Calls for Warnock 51-49.

Oops never mind the 51-49, I misread that as his projected margin but he was just saying the final senate balance

Ooh, there's a WaPo needle now too! Weirdly it's way more confident in Walker's vote count than Warnock's, but it still looks very good.

THEY HAVE 20,000 NEEDLES FOR 20,000 MULES SISTER SARA TOLD ME ABOUT IT IN A DREAM

33: At a guess, I'd bet they estimated Walker as having more chances to break out in the small rural counties that in the big metro ones. Whereas Warnock's vote total would mostly depend on turnout levels in the big counties.

The needle is back and it's pegged. >95% chance of Warnock win. Everyone's talking about it like it's over even though there's no official call yet.

Walker is ahead by 8k of almost 3M but almost everything left is Fulton and DeKalb. Warnock could end up winning by 100k if he's held level without his strongholds reporting yet.

Georgia Republicans seem less completely batshit than Republicans in many other states (my low bar, let me show you it), and yet they're voting in large numbers for a guy who's been hit in the head so many times he makes Tommy Tuberville look like Churchill.

Aaaaand Warnock just jumped into the lead by 15k. It's over.

Nate Cohn has apparently put the fear of God in the needle.

yaaaaaaaaaay.

32: That does seem to be about what the final margin will be. Pretty much in line with most expectations.

Five more years before I get a text from him?

43: no, I'm sure he'll be texting you about other races next cycle.

I had a spreadsheet for taking the Georgia results by county and then summing them by regions. Interestingly, it looks like Warnock improved on his general-election margin in almost every region except northeast and northwest - which so far is good because turnout in Metro Atlanta, where Dems depend utterly on running up the numbers, dropped more than the rest of the state. (Although that could be them taking longer to fully report.)

Metro Atlanta: 68% Warnock 32% Walker (general election 66/32), Warnock margin +547,233 (general +602,372).
Rest of state: Warnock 37% Walker 63% (general 36/62), Warnock margin -491,502 (general -564,697).

Ok, redoing with this morning's data Metro Atlanta turnout dropped only a little more than average (12% vs 11%). The patterns of change are still the same.

Pretty impressive that 89% of people who voted in the general also voted in the runoff, I imagine.

43 and 44: How do they get the cell phone numbers? I try to give out my landline only to these kinds of groups. But the Bloomberg campaign was texting me like crazy. I just hit STOP.

I have no idea. Everyone has my cell phone number. Some guy called both the home number and my cell with an unsolicited offer to buy my house. Every political poll calls my cell.

We tend to give our number to a range of businesses for reasons specific to our being their customers, right? They can't all be trustworthy. Could even be the telecoms being sneaky with permissions.

I gave my cell the various Democratic campaign organizers because they needed to be able to reach me while I was volunteering.

50: This is why I've stopped volunteering for campaigns. They all want your cell and they want you to use it. I went to phone bank for an issue once here, and I showed up to the WeWork site that was hosting it and was supposed to have brought nit just my cell but my laptop. I was expecting a room full of phones.

49: if it's a business, I try to give my landline do that I won't get texts.

I feel irrationally strongly that bill texting is intrusive spam in a way that e-mailing isn't. I also really dislike it when people under 40 use texts for things that would be better suited to e-mail. Like, do you really need a response now? If you can't wait for me to respond to e-mail, then call. Note: I'm not encouraging calls, but I feel that other than one's spouse and very dear friends, people should only text if a call would be appropriate. For example, if you are meeting up with someone and you are trying to figure out where they are, texting is useful. But I know somebody who is on the disability access committee for her town, and people text her spreadsheets.

I wish they'd just set a number you could donate and get out of all texts. Like I'll happily donate $1k every election if it mean getting rewarded, rather than punished.

BG, to your 12: Josh Marshall just sent in his email newsletter his ever-firmer conclusion that following election night on TV is worse than useless - a lot of artificial drama fed by the random swing of precinct-reporting. Well-curated Twitter will probably inform you more, but that creates other problems. Best is probably to keep the news off until you wake up next morning.

As a compromise, I read this thread.