Ah, I was just writing a post about this. Atrios asks the right question:
So, are we really pissed at him or is this just part of a grand plan to let Chalabi distance himself from us so that he can become the face of the moderate opposition so that we can install him as a friendly strongman who pretends to not be friendly?
There's a certain level of conspiracy to which I will not sink. First, it's not very plausible to think that the US gunpointing will give Chalabi enough of a boost to matter. Second, it's hard to wrap my mind around the conjunction of two claims: (a) the decisionmakers are dumb enough to botch so many parts of the Iraqi adventure, including, say, totally missing the mood on the street re the Sadr shutdown, yet (b) they're verrrry subtle when it comes to manipulating Iraqi public opinion.
Josh Marshall agrees with you. I'm almost convinced, but how successful we think a plan will be has no bearing on whether the administration has undertaken it.
Good point: the inference from "that's almost certainly going to fail" to "they won't try it" works only with some additional premises that we don't have in this case.
It would be completely hilarious if the conspiracy theory turned out to be right. If a movie had that lame a plot, I'd walk out.