I heard that Biden is waiting to see how the Supreme Court rules on presidential immunity, because he could win right away if it says presidents are immune.
I'm interested to see how Trump's shtick lands without an audience of broketooth cretins to whoop and holler. I suspect/hope without the laughtrack, it's going to come off poorly.
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I ignored it here first!
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-war-25m-people-could-die-hunger-september-2024-new-report-warns
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Also, I think it's 50/50 whether Trump shows up at all or says the format is unfair and bails at the last minute.
Maybe 70/40 with the 70 being he shows up? I don't think it's even money, but I agree Trump wants to find a way out.
There's only $8k riding on this at p0lymarket, but betting no DJT showing is only 2.6 cents a bet against 98 cents to bet yes he will show. There's a symmetric Biden noshow bet that's pretty close for both odds and amount, and a nonspecific bet on whether debate happens at 2.9c against, 64k bet volume. The odds seem unreasonable (that is, betting against seems cheap to me), but I basically do not gamble and I try to avoid acting on hunches.
That's why I never take a Richard the 3rd role.
Since this is the Africa thread, I will mention that police in Kenya are shooting protesters who are storming the parliament building. Weirdly, Mike Pence is inside.
Things are blowing up all over Kenya. Vehicles on fire at the Supreme Court, City Hall is on fire, etc. Meanwhile, a contingent of 200 Kenyan police officers just arrived in Haiti. Hard to say which would be the worse assignment.
So I knew shit was bad in Sudan, but what's going on with Kenya? I really don't think I'd heard a single thing before today.
I hadn't either. I just saw a skeet.
In case any doubts remained as to Obama's Americaness.
5: He's not really the "give 110%" type.
Apparently Biden is going to do well because he will be jacked up on Mountain Dew. (Just the craziest among a whole slew of expectation-setting enhanced Biden takes.)
Who the fuck knows. I will watch if I am captured and bound to a chair with my eyes taped open Clockwork Orange-style.
I think Trump will do "best" if he just sticks with migrant killers, inflation, and "me strong, him weak." Especially the first, which is reprehensible, but a resonant hard-to answer thing (think Willie Horton).
Re: heebie's previous post on crime report coverage, As expected very little notice in the media and active sabotage by the information terrorists at Fox News.
jacked up on Mountain Dew
See? Old and out of touch. The Democrats need a candidate jacked up on Bang! energy drinks and ELF bars.
I guess that would be Vivek Ramaswamy, though, so maybe not.
The thing about how Biden is senile and he's going to be on a drug that keeps him from being senile during the debate, is weird. Why, if anyone really believed both of these things, aren't there hoards screaming for that drug to be made available to their parents, grandparent, whatever?
Exactly no one who is taking care of someone with dementia has thought giving them meth would be a good idea.
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Does anyone understand what is going on with the French elections? I was at a gathering of Tim's former co-workers and a French guy who lives in Germany was visiting, and he said that in the LePen family, the niece is terrifying, because she has packaged her far right views in a way that is really attractive.
There was another guy on a green card who is a naturalized Canadian citizen. He was thinking about leaving this country in a couple of years but said "Europe doesn't look so great right now either." I asked Tim where that guy grew up, because his accent was not Canadian. It turns out he grew up in East Germany and left right after the Berlin wall fell. Now, when a guy who grew up in East Germany is worried enough about the political situation in Europe that he hesitates to move there, thatj sounds bad to me. Especially if the alternative were Trump.
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We are at the end of an era of relatively easy migration ("relatively" being a key qualifier.) The question is how violently it ends.
I don't think even the French know what is going on with the French elections. Macron certainly scrambled things, and nobodyquite knows how they will unscramble.
I've not been following closely enough to be able to guess whether not joining up with the Popular Front (an all-left grouping, echoing the 1930s when the French left managed to do what the German left did not) will leave the Macron people as the last right-of-center anti-RN group standing, or whether it will wipe them out.
Two-stage voting means that Le Pen's RN could get the most votes in the first stage (around 1/3, polls suggest) but then not end up with many seats if they lose a bunch of runoffs. Over in Thüringen, something similar happened with mayoral elections. In May, the AfD qualified for numerous runoffs, sometimes coming in first. In June, they lost them all.
I mean, it's not great that a third of the populace is voting for modern shiny fascism (tho see the canonical 27% Crazifcation Factor), but at least it's not a majority.
Maybe I'm just optimistic because the sun is shining and the Georgians were glorious last night to make the round of 16 in their first tournament appearance.
The fascist-descended government in Italy does not seem to be as awful as it could be, so consolations where you find them. News this morning had the Italian PM being snippy because the grandees putting together the next European Commission did not include her anti-EU people in the list of commissioners. Funny thing, that.
Most comprehensible thing I've seen so far:
https://www.ft.com/content/58e546b4-476f-4441-b64f-8bac4b964775
22: The thing about how Biden is senile
Because the MSM is relatively sophisticated they have generally backed off the straight "concerns about his age" stuff, and come up with more nuanced ways to keep the concept going.
So the NYT in the last few days has had:
I'm a Doctor and a Voter. Here's How I'm Thinking About the Health of Trump and Biden.
Age and the Image of Capacity
President Biden's toughest opponent may not be his predecessor. It is the cultural meaning, built up through centuries, that we assign to being old.
What Joe Biden Could Learn From Betty White About
How Misleading Videos Are Trailing Biden as He Battles Age Doubts
Aging in Public
(I really love how rather than focusing on the lies and disinformation of his opponent and allies, the spotlight is on Biden and grants passive voice to the creators of the videos. They just happen to be out there and getting prominent play,. How very interesting!)
Trump Suggests Biden May Use Supplements to Get 'Jacked Up' for Debate
And the New Yorker enters the fray with:
The Duelling Incomprehensibility of Biden and Trump in the 2020 Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joseph Biden on a debate stage.
One of the many asymmetries of the Presidential race is that incoherence helps Trump and hurts Biden.
When the debates were first announced, I was sure Trump was going to make up some excuse, not go, and blame it on Biden. But with only six or so hours to go, I'm pretty sure I was wrong about that. He believes his own hype. His courtiers do too or just can't countermand him. They'll say Trump won the debate as long as he doesn't collapse on stage and come up with a conspiracy theory explaining why it's Soros's fault if he does.
I'm not sure if I'm going to watch it or not. I don't have anything better to do, but at the same time it's hard to imagine anything worse. I'll probably watch it or read commentary on it shortly afterwards with an eye to lowering Cassandane's blood pressure. She's going to a concert with a friend and not me tonight and I'm sure she'd be glued to screens until midnight otherwise.
Oof, Biden's voice sounds very raspy to begin the debate.
ACK. I turned it on. Biden's voice sounds a little off.
So far Trump is staying on talking points. This is stressful. I need him to rant about sharks and tornados.
So far Trump is staying on talking points. This is stressful. I need him to rant about sharks and tornados.
Exactly what I'm thinking right now.
I started listening to it less than 4 minutes ago. I came in to Trump talking about covid when the chyron was talking about tax cuts. I'm disappointed that when Biden got his turn to talk, he didn't immediately say, "are you listening to this bullshit?"
Trump is coherently spewing lies which is probably the best way to win an election. Every single person wanted it back to the states! Of course!
He's being a little incoherent on this abortion pill question.
He literally just said that the governor of virginia was advocating for abortion after birth. I shit you not.
And yet, he sounds more coherent. (Unfortunately)
This is painful. Trump sounds confident (and wrong, but confidently wrong) and Biden seems hesitant.
37: I think I'm a few minutes behind you. Watching this on Max, streaming.
37: That's not him raving. That's a common Republican talking point.
I think Biden won the abortion topic. He sounded forceful.
But Biden's stage presence is not great.
Ugh. Trump just lies so seamlessly. He's so fucking untethered that he can believe any sort of stream of consciousness he wills into being. There's no mental cross-checking whatsoever.
Moderators just completely ignoring lies (immigrants going on SS? It's the opposite, they it but don't get benefits!). Trump just completely ignored a question about rounding up 20 million people. Now he's lying that his quote about soldiers was made up.
Moderators just completely ignoring lies (immigrants going on SS? It's the opposite, they it but don't get benefits!). Trump just completely ignored a question about rounding up 20 million people. Now he's lying that his quote about soldiers was made up.
I'm turning it off for a while, but this is a discouraging start.
Trump just called Biden a weak Palestinian? What the fuck am I watching?
He called Biden a Palestinian, which is weird. Twice.
God I wish Biden was ten years younger.
Tapper finally calling Trump out for not answering a question. Moderators have completely lost the plot. Trump just lied that he offered national guard troops and they'll just let it go by I'm sure.
Nancy Pelosi is responsible for 1/6 because she turned down 10,000 troops?
At least no one will think Biden's on adderall.
The more he pisses off Biden the better Biden does. I want to see him rip off his shirt like Hulk Hogan.
I have to say I laughed at "morals of an alley cat"
I do appreciate how much Biden just absolutely hates Trump and lets it show.
Calling him out for having sex with a porn star is definitely on the offensive. Watching Biden's face when Trump started talking about Hunter was intense. Trump's rambling was practically word salad. This is worse than 8 years ago.
Have opportunity zones benefited other communities? It seems like they haven't done jack shit here.
I'm appreciating the follow ups by the moderators.
Biden is getting repetitive on this "The idea!" construction.
Trumps default when he has nothing to say is just say "we had the best (insert topic)". He just said he had perfect H2O and that's his climate plan.
Biden stumbled a bit while .talking about HBCUs.
This "use all your time" moderator thing is really annoying.
Apparently he does actually have a cold, according to some random person online who quoted anonymous sources.
What he says is mostly good, but the old man yelling at a cloud delivery is tough to overcome.
Never mind. Jesus says he turned it off twenty minutes ago.
I can't imagine uninformed voters appreciate Trump just ignoring every question.
Fuck you Trump, talk about opioid treatment
I want to know more about this most incredible dog ever that he bought.
I'm pretty skeptical of Biden's plan to solve fentanyl by using special machines, though.
I don't know how to underestimate the American independent voters anymore. I have no idea what they think when they watch this.
WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS GOLF FOOD FIGHT?
on 1/6, no one ever talks about the size of the crowd. Even bigger than his inauguration. Everyone just focuses on the smaller group that went to the capitol.
Biden should have been laughing when Trump was talking throughout this, rather than staring into the middle distance with his mouth open.
The mouth open thing is driving me crazy.
Crap they went to commercial right when Biden started calling him names which is what would make Trump completely lose it.
Omg Biden landed a beautiful speech on Trump being a whiner who can't accept a loss, and they cut to commercial instead of letting Trump lose his shit. Goddamnit.
I'm glad we're all having the same experience here.
Next we will all share the experience of convincing ourselves that debates rarely matter.
I'm hoping this convinces old geezers that Biden is just like them and Trump is a squirrelly evasive fucker. But maybe Trump peddles enough xenophobia to wreck this democracy. who the fuck knows.
Well, I absolutely cannot abide these talking heads. Everything is the worst, goodnight.
That was the worst debate in the history of this country. People say we've never seen anything like it- like you wouldn't believe.
That could go in the driving thread too.
This recap seems, sadly, mostly correct: https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/six-2024-presidential-debate-thoughts
I missed the first 30 minutes and maybe I that's why I didn't find it as bad as the CNN people are saying it was.
Apparently I watched the worst part, and I was already feeling like this was going to be white knuckle election.
I don't know that the debate changed my impression of the overall election, but it was definitely a bad night.
The first 30 minutes were painful. Biden was borderline incoherent at times, and when he did make sense, it still just sounded like the teacher from Charlie Brown.
Sample from a transcript.
BIDEN: He had the largest national debt of any president in a four-your period, number one. Number two, he - that $2 trillion tax cut benefited the very wealthy. I - what I'm going to do is fix the tax system.
For example, we have a thousand trillionaires in America - I mean, billionaires in America. And what's happening? They're in a situation where they, in fact, pay 8.2 percent in taxes. If they just paid 24 percent or 25 percent, either one of those numbers, they'd raised $500 million - billion dollars, I should say, in a 10-year period.
We'd be able to right wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do - childcare, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our healthcare system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the - with - with - with the COVID. Excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with - look, if - we finally beat Medicare.
TAPPER: Thank you, President Biden. President Trump?
TRUMP: Well, he's right. He did beat Medicare. He beat it to death. And he's destroying Medicare because all of these people are coming in, they're putting them on Medicare.
Well, I went to bed expecting to wake up to headlines like BIDEN COLLAPSES ON CAMERA and similar and it was nothing like that. Your incumbent there mainly seemed weary, and in terms of expression during reaction shots, it was mostly 'can you believe I have to deal with this guy?'
Trump for his part seemed able to match the Biden senior moments 1-1. He often talks nonsense; it's baked in, maybe even priced in. Obviously you don't want to be drawing in some performative stage event with Trump, you want to be wiping the floor with him.
In terms of what to do, no idea. There are costs to every alternative, I'd think.
What to do is campaign in swing states however we can, and Dems up and down the ballot. Which I'm sure some/most/all of us (who are legally allowed to do so) are doing anyway.
Also listen to the Black aunties in your life, to the extent that you have them. In my various social media, it's only white people panicking, and a bunch of those folks really want permission to vote R but just can't stand Trump. So they're not exactly stalwarts.
Yuck. At least I did not watch or read anything until this morning so I got a good night's sleep.
Against ny better judgment I clicked on a "who won the debate" article and just incredible that it was completely theater criticism. Not even a hint of substance.
"Trump lied with confidence and verve." But I guess that's been the playbook of demagogues and authoritarians throughout history.
I am going out of my way to not listen to clips, but there is one of B post-debate being quite forceful with commentators noting the difference. Sigh.
My random Moby Dick Quote being a little too apt this morning:
one most perilous and long voyage ended, only begins a second; and a second ended, only begins a third, and so on, for ever and for aye.
Krugmqn on twitter said that he is writing a blog post reluctantly calling for Biden - the best president of his adult life - to step aside in favor of Harris. I'm really not a fan of hers. Bernie and Warren look so much more alert than Biden does. But being President drains anyone.
Biden seems so plasticky and brittle. I'm so depressed. It's RGB all over again.
Another reasonable debate response (and yes, the decision overturning Chevron seems much more important than the debate): https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/our-debate-wraps