Back when it first came out, one of my least-favorite book club members picked Hillbilly Elegy for that month. It already had enough bad press for me to read the first half with scorn and never finish it. What a POS he is.
Also I've been vaguely hoping that Biden was timing his announcement of a Harris-handoff to maximally suck the media cycle away from Trump and the RNC convention, but all signs point away from that.
Said lickspittle statements of support for Trump over the past couple of years being preceded by statements calling Trump America's Hitler and the like. He was also a participant in some groyper group chat; expect leaks. This should be fun.
It's going to be fucking awful no matter what and you know it.
And that's just on the domestic front
Aside from being a craven piece of shit, he's wildly underprepared for the job he currently holds, let alone the one he aspires to. Born 1984, BA 2009, JD 2013, one book, a very short time practicing law, and an only slightly longer stint in venture capital. Never managed anything, never stuck to anything professional or philosophical for a nanosecond beyond the arrival of the next opportunity, no commitment to anything except his own advancement. Yuck.
Hey now, there's nothing wrong with being born in 1984.
Not saying there is, but a little more life experience would be useful before serving as VP to an almost 80 year old overweight rage fiend.
A lot to pick from but my god https://x.com/gavinbade/status/1812950510372012246?s=46&t=nbIfRG4OrIZbaPkDOwkgxQ
This is not fair and balanced reporting, but the Thiel connection worries me. Actual Bond villain. https://sfstandard.com/opinion/2024/07/15/with-jd-vance-as-vp-peter-thiel-would-finally-have-trump-right-where-he-wants-him/
We're going down in flames. Also Musk is pledging to spend $45 million per month getting Trump elected.
The arc of history is really strained here.
I'm going to have to stop consuming any media to avoid the ads. I may want to learn how to use my phone to play music.
How is Trump getting elected good for Tesla?
He has about as much claim to Appalachia as I do, and his book read like what his Ivy roommates would believe.
13: I am, of course, naturally prone to doom-and-gloomism, but everything feels particularly apocalyptic right now.
On the plus side when has anything Elon Musk says about future events been true?
Yeah, the sudden Cannon dismissal citing the Thomas concurrence, and the few glimpses I've had of the media's generally fulsome coverage of Milwaukee has pushed me to a new nadirs of despair on the hope and joy scale.
Gotta see Vance now as a kind of human shield, dead hand, doomsday device. Need to keep the orange one alive. (From when? Inauguration day, or sooner?)
If it's any consolation, things never go as planned for hard right wingers, especially not ones as a chaotic as these. They seem fairly inefficient in government.
20: somehow weird for me to see Charlie W as a handle here because that's my name!
You know, in 2016, I truly didn't think Trump would win. In 2020, I was terrified, but in my heart of hearts I thought Biden had the edge. So this is the first time that I've felt like I'm staring directly into a semi barreling down the highway at us all. Kinda sucks a lot.
JD's kind of an amazing success story. His Senate campaign was going nowhere (not even in the top 3 in the Republican primary) until Trump endorsed him. With the endorsement he barely won the primary, and then he won the general election with a significantly lower percentage of the votes than the other Republicans running statewide. He's been Senator for less than 2 years, and his main accomplishment is a few trollish tweets.
Vance seems to be the son Trump wishes he had.
Anyway, I'm feeling like I'm going to largely succeed in ignoring the Republican convention this year -- I've done pretty well at this over the decades. Join me!
I'll be interested in seeing the Republicans' ratings. It surprised me that the debate was relatively little-watched -- but I watched. I'm normally a convention-watcher, but I can't imagine any reason to tune in to this one.
Vance's main selling points to Trump were the guaranteed blind loyalty (reacting to memory of Pence) and the connection to money (Thiel etc.). Of course he's also enough of a shitweasel he would sell out Trump given the opportunity, but the opportunity probably wouldn't come.
Also possibly being able to cheap out on signs, just change two letters in the old stock.
Google pushed me the fucking app for the RNC. I may have to get an iPhone. Mostly so I can "like" texts, but also because Android is pissing me off.
"Gotta see Vance now as a kind of human shield, dead hand, doomsday device. Need to keep the orange one alive."
They'll never assassinate me, James, to put you on the throne" - Charles II to his much less popular brother and heir
32: That's really unforgivable.
For more google-adjacent good vibes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/technology/eric-schmidt-affair.html
If Trump wins in November, I'll be right there all doom-and-gloom with everyone else. Obviously the big-picture stuff is horrifying, but Project 2025 would probably cost Cassandane her job, so we'd be in trouble personally as well.
But a lot can happen between now and November. Biden can have a run of good interviews, rallies, etc., and the conventional wisdom can shift from focusing on his age a bit. Or he might announce he's endorsing Harris (or whoever) and there could be a surprisingly seamless transition. Trump's criminal cases will return to the news and won't make him look good. The fundamentals still matter, and they're good right now.
And there's no way of knowing what will happen until it does* and there's nothing I can personally do about any of it**, so ignoring it seems harmless and good for my mental health. I'm having fun with Cassandane and family, trying to stay fit despite some lingering plantar fasciitis, trying to stay cool in this ridiculous heat, and changing the subject or just playing games on my phone when politics comes up.
* Obviously if Trump or Biden has a massive stroke, that changes things, but anything else is hard to predict or plan around.
** Except some low-grade donations and activism I'd probably do anyway.
35: What's the low-grade activism? I've been trying to figure out how to volunteer and am at a loss.
I should find someone to do GOTV work for before the election.
36: a href="https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/">Postcards to Swing States. I've done it in at least one previous election and Cassandane has done it in more than that. Given where I live, it seems like the only option except phone-banking, and fuck that.
Do either of those have in-person meetup campaigns? I do better if I have community accountability.
25: He has three! Does none of them measure up?
The link in 34 is interesting. I like the part where she gets fired from the one company so she creates a new one with the same name and uses it to receive millions of dollars in investment profits.
Vance's statement that the UK is an enemy of the US because of its Islamist government must have come as a surprise to the Prime Minister, who only yesterday was being denounced by MAGA nuts all over the Internet for being an atheist.
42: I think CC left that question as an exercise for the reader.
I don't think Trump is getting enough credit for overcoming his lifelong aversion to men with beards.
42: Well, Barron isn't old enough to be veep yet.
Vance doesn't seem to provide the ticket with any advantages at all, and has many potential vulnerabilities. This seems like a strong indication that Trump himself was behind the pick, unlike in 2016.
48: Yeah, one of many factors (as in any tight race) that swung it in 2016 was Manafort manipulating so he picked Pence rather than Christie which I think would have almost certainly resulted in a loss.
I'll need to see polling shift substantially and stay that way before I start worrying that the race won't be close. Leaving aside the Electoral count, it's never looked like either could win by a lot, if you use the measure of how close the closest states end up being. IIRC, Trump has tended to do best when he isn't reminding people of who he is.
In 2016, it seemed like he gained every time he was either not in the news quite as much or pretending to be a regular-ish Republican. Vance, confidence, and big media buys from similar people might not work in his favor, but probably won't lower him beyond the high-40% baseline.
Probably useful to view Trump's strategies through the lens of pro wrestling narratives. Getting shot gives him the perfect opportunity to do face turn and let Vance play the heel. I 100% guarantee this has been discussed explicitly.
New Trump will be the good cop to Vance's bad cop, which Old Trump played last season when "normal" Mike Pence was the good cop.
51: I don't think Trump will allow himself to be upstaged by Vance. Trump has always leaned into his villainy, and will do so again here.
Trump is a bullshitter, but he isn't an actor. This is what his fans are talking about when they talk about his integrity.
I know people are ignoring the RNC and coverage. And you're smart!
Katy Tur on Trump's supposed pivot towards unity: Is this really going to be different, IDK, but I will tell you even just looking at his face in this video, I've never seen Trump with a look like that on his face, not once
Jansing: Looks almost pensive
Tur: Serene
On polling, it is worth noting that the UK had one of the worst polling failures in decades. No one noticed much because the polls said "Labour landslide" and that's what happened, but the polls were seven points away from the actual result, and they haven't missed that badly since 1992 - they hugely underestimated how many undecided voters would end up voting for the incumbent.
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I don't even wish I had the mental whateverness to fully appreciate my brother's epic poem, but here's a review for those of you who do, or know someone who does. https://www.frontporchrepublic.com/2024/07/the-epic-england-never-had-a-review-of-ethandun/ A perfect holiday gift for that hard to buy for person on your list.
I imagine that his next one will be set during the English Civil War, so stylistically maybe even dumbed down enough that I can get it. Actually, who am I kidding . . .
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This is good news for John McCain.
Biden positive for Covid...
Didn't I see a headline this morning that Biden said he'd only step aside for a medical issue? 🤔
57 is awesome...congrats to your brother, CC
What Barry said. How long was he writing it?
You can organize your own meetups for writing postcards if you think you have enough interest among your personal contacts. I've been meeting up at a coffee shop to write postcards with people from my knitting group. The group organizer got the postcards and has been announcing the meetups on the Meetup.com platform we already use for the group. Some participants have been buying stamps for them as needed. We seem to be able to do about 25 each in two hours. Longer than that and errors start to creep in.
You can organize your own meetups for writing postcards if you think you have enough interest among your personal contacts. I've been meeting up at a coffee shop to write postcards with people from my knitting group. The group organizer got the postcards and has been announcing the meetups on the Meetup.com platform we already use for the group. Some participants have been buying stamps for them as needed. We seem to be able to do about 25 each in two hours. Longer than that and errors start to creep in.
57 et seq: Congrats to the other carp, and cue my habitual shoutout for The Ballad of the White Horse.
My signs keep getting stolen so I'm thinking of putting together a meetup to paint more signs. Its a good project, if you know someone with a basement full of old campaign signs. And if you know anybody in politics, there is a good chance you do.
57 is amazing. And what better present for the "hard to buy presents for" person than a hard-to-buy present? "Hi, I'm looking for a book whose one-word title includes two (2) letters which are not present in the modern English alphabet. Ethanthun? Equandun? Something like that."
Spike, serious question: the signs. People keep talking about them in the context of US elections, and they're obviously important, but what do you actually do with them? Do people really just stick them in their lawns as a sign of support? Or are you putting them in other places as well, like on lamp posts and shop windows and so on, where lots of people will see them?
Not Spike, but the intended audience is drivers. Most Americans don't spend a lot of time walking past lampposts and shop windows, but they do drive by all the lawns and other little bits of roadside grass that line the streets and roads in their town. So the signs have really big letters, but they're also identifiable just by color and shape: if you can get signs up on a lot of people's lawns it conveys an impression of overwhelming support to drivers.
I don't know how important or effective this all actually is, but that's the idea.
65: I don't have enough personal contacts. Part of getting involved is that I want to meet more like-minded people.
The lawn signs are a big thing here. Like Biden didn't have enough of them for the olds in 2020 and they complained.
Spike - is there anything useful for Mass people to do in NH? I worry that we're just perceived as MassHokes?
There's some guy who is running to unseat Elizabeth Warren trying to distance himself from the national Republican Party. He seems to be getting funded by crypto enthusiasts.
He lived in Rhode Island on the border and just moved here a few months ago, he's also written a book about the trauma of violence in his Detroit childhood and sexual assault. He was interviewed on the radio and mentioned that his daughter went to U Mass and tat when he lived in Rhode Island he did his shopping in MA. The host said that he should mention that in his ads. I suppose for a NH transplant that would be useful, but looking it up now, it appears that Rhode Island sales taxes are actually higher than Massachusetts'.
74 does remind me of one tangible effect of yard signs. They show you a challenger has money behind them.
Lawn signs are a big deal here, too. It also shows which kind of person supports the local candidate, since local people don't have partisan affiliations. For ex, do they show up at fancy houses? predominantly working class Hispanic neighborhoods? Houses with other signs that are partisan? etc
Ah interesting. So it's not just about awareness - "hey, there is a Labour candidate running here, this is their name" - or about direct persuasion - "Vote Labour for broadband windmills and warheads on foreheads" - but more about signalling "this is Labour country, so if you want to fit in, vote Labour" or "people who live in houses that look like this vote Labour, if your house looks like this then you should too".
It is about awareness for unknown candidates and lesser offices. You vote for so many things and most of the candidates are not known to nearly all of the voters. The signs here are very thick around the polling places. But it's not signaling that you are a real candidate because you can print and distribute signs.
Where I am, most campaign managers will tell you that lawn signs are a waste of money, too expensive for low impact. But they're still the norm as candidates (and volunteers) tend to want them. Veblen goods?
I've been putting signs up for some years, but kinda wanted to skip it this year; the past 2 and 4 years, there's been a notable uptick in people yelling things as they drive by (I'm in a 50/50 mixed locale), and I'm a little worried about a bigger altercation/someone shooting me.
They might have an impact in terms of increasing the likelihood of your supporters actually remembering to vote. Sunk cost. If you see the sign on your lawn every day as you come home for four months, then when election day comes round, maybe you're more likely to turn out?
81: Squirrel Hill isn't really mixed like that.
There's scholarly work on the effectiveness of "visibility", as you might imagine. That study finds an effect, you can find others that don't.
Where I am, most campaign managers will tell you that lawn signs are a waste of money, too expensive for low impact. But they're still the norm as candidates (and volunteers) tend to want them. Veblen goods?
Yeah, this is the constant back-and-forth about yard signs. Supporters love them because they don't require doing any work; campaign staff hate them for the same reason. The sides debate whether they're effective but that's the underlying dynamic.
84: And that study is about nonpartisan signage where the goal was to improve voter turnout. May not translate to signs on how to vote.
In MA, we have something called the Governor's Council. They approve judicial appointments and pardons. It's a very part-time job and pays $35k a year with no benefits. Several years ago Ingot a mailer from a lawyer ai knew who was running. Once I looked into it, I realized that the current incumbent was a total hack who had been endorsed by Capuano. She's 85 and has had the position for 23 years and criticizes others for not treating it as a full-time job. In 2007, she was accused of assaulting a clerk with a curling iron.
The person who lost last time is running again. She would be the first public defender and is talking a lot about understanding juvenile brain development and addiction when reviewing judicial nominees. She is actively running, holding fundraisers and going to community events. I wonder if she sees this as a political stepping stone, but I don't care because I always vote against the incumbent. I see her signs up. I never saw signs up for that office before. I'm guessing that some people might pull out their phone and google "what is the Governor's council"
I had a sign up in my yard about opposing private jet expansion. The other ways to volunteer would have led me to risk getting arrested, and I wasn't cool with that.
I think the tax override to support our local public schools probably drove up turnout. That was a close vote; it passed by 35 votes.