There will be specific attempts to get it to the House by not having valid state elector slates or at least "questionable" enough to allow the Supremes/Congress to get it to the House. Main mechanism will be by mucking up county certifications (re: Wayne County Michigan for a short time in 2020). I expect this even if not close and in that case major Rs will not weigh in. But if close, it will be nearly all in.
Mechanism: County X (or however many) do not certify their results. D state officials provide electors but those are challenged (if an R can block at state level they will).
Another thing will be more attempts to stop vote counting. Succession fire type of thing.
There are a lot of other exploitable holes but I think that is the most likely.
If it is close and they can do it with moderate cover, male Rs on Supreme Court will do it this time. They were allergic last time (other than Alito/Thomas of course), but I think are increasingly red-pilled.
I think if it is not close any attempts at violence will be scattered and sporadic.
If it is real close I think the collective security forces at various levels will be helpers in delivering for Rs.
I may be being overly dramatic, but it does not end quietly. And media will help Rs (maybe not purposefully) if close (see 2000).
You keep your feet moving until you hear the whistle and the whistle is inauguration.
1 is my take as well, more or less. There's a reason Trump keeps saying people don't have to vote.
You keep your feet moving until you hear the whistle and the whistle is inauguration.
That's my mood at the moment.
4:: did he say people don't have to vote in this election? I thought he was telling people that they need to vote in this election, but once he's back in as President, he'll fix everything, so they won't need to vote again.
The only thing football is good for is having someone yell at you to keep your feet moving until you hear the whistle.
6: I originally thought that was his implication, but on fuller reflection I think there's a good chance he was reveling in the ambiguity. I mean, "You won't have to do it anymore" (direct quote) is a really strong statement; even he isn't blind to the implications. He followed it up with "Four more years it will be fixed, it'll be fine," but that was partly, I thin to have a plausible out.
The military doesn't want him to be president, I don't think. I don't think there's much threat of violent takeover. Scattered mobs can't do it themselves if the military doesn't back them.
He believes he shapes reality with his mind. So he'll project the reality he wants; that he won and will be inaugurated when the real votes are revealed.
Agree that the military was a big brake in 2020/21. I think many of the security services are very Trumpy, less so at the leadership level.
Agree that the military was a big brake in 2020/21. I think many of the security services are very Trumpy, less so at the leadership level.
I think dissent from a dodgy procedural/court Trump victory will be stomped on pretty quickly. Media will finger in the wind and end up supporting the "winner" for the most part after a some really nasty inter-organization battles. Most will stick with the paychecks.
I really hope there is enough daylight in a D victory for the institutions to stick together.
I want him to just implode mentally/psychologically/physically/whatever. But I fear there is instead a portrait of a totally decrepit Trump in some golden bathroom somewhere.
I do hope I get to look like a total crank in mid-January 2025. Everyone is welcome to come back and pile on and ridicule me. Or do it now.
I very much doubt that Trump will lose badly, his floor is probably something like 44%. So I think the more interesting question is, if it's close overall and the Dems can mount ballot challenges in states with close fuzzy outcomes, will they for once take their own side in an argument. In the courts and in Congress if they have a Dem majority in the House. And tell the Seditious Six to go fuck themselves when they say that Trump has been elected by a 6 to 3 vote.
Relevant: https://www.theguardian.com/film/article/2024/aug/02/january-6-coup-war-game-documentary-simulation
Someone in NYC should watch it and report back.
Counterpoint: The Trump coup failed despite Trump being president and commander in chief of the armed forces*. This time around, he will not be president or commander of anything until inauguration, providing that he wins. It should be obvious that the potential for malarkey is much less if your lot are literally in command of the forces of the state.
*This is really something! It was in his power to have Pence droned! He could order the Marines to storm the capitol and arrest everyone! Hell, shoot everyone! He managed to fail at coup even though he was already commander in chief! What a loser!
17: Yes, acknowledged. What is different this time is that almost every Republican official involved in elections at every level understands how it might work with certifications etc. And most would be willing to do it if they thought there was a chance of it working. So a different focus. Just need enough doubt to get it to Congress's by-delegation vote which is locked R.. you know the "Constitutional solution.". Biggest impediment to that working is regular House/Senate votes (why down ballot matters... a lot!)
14: I very much doubt that Trump will lose badly, his floor is probably something like 44%.
Agree that is the case for anything other than an utterly undeniably unhinged/damaged Trump that even the worst person in your life has to acknowledge. Which even then would only knock him down to the crazifaction level (28% right?).
Not sure if people recall, but that number is the percentage that Alan Keyes got against Obama in the Senate race after the original candidate dropped due to a sex scandal. Logic was that Keyes brought nothing to the race other than the crazy: not from Illinois so no real local support, two black men so no race/gender difference; just the crazy.
14: I very much doubt that Trump will lose badly, his floor is probably something like 44%.
Agree that is the case for anything other than an utterly undeniably unhinged/damaged Trump that even the worst person in your life has to acknowledge. Which even then would only knock him down to the crazifaction level (28% right?).
Not sure if people recall, but that number is the percentage that Alan Keyes got against Obama in the Senate race after the original candidate dropped due to a sex scandal. Logic was that Keyes brought nothing to the race other than the crazy: not from Illinois so no real local support, two black men so no race/gender difference; just the crazy.
Not just a sex scandal. A Star Trek sex scandal.
18: yes, for Harris to be sure of winning she needs to win a majority using D-run states only. Biden won because the R officials of states he won were willing to admit it, which may not happen again.
From what I've seen, Georgia Rs seem like they are still going to play it straight. But a lot of opportunity for county level rat-fucking, and who knows under the pressure of circumstances.
Oh we decided that it was too pleasant enjoying the wave of Harris optimism? We needed to re-activate everyone's sympathetic nervous system and tizzy control?
24: Unfogged has to maintain its record of predicting 218 of the past zero US military coups.
I am not that familiar with the ins and outs of various prediction markets, but have been noticing a pretty consistent 10-point difference between Predictit and Polymarket (the former more bullish on Dems). Right now they are split on the favorite. I assume it is just in the pool of bettors they attract (or I guess in a quickly changing race, methodology could lead to a split).
Ah wait, Polymarket is the Peter Thiel joint that Nate Silver now works for. And I think it is crypto only.
Tbh the impression from here is that the US Army in particular would dearly love to be handed a solid reason to transfer the orange one to the stockade. All those civics classes at West Point, maybe.
8: The funny thing about "you'll never have to vote again" is that the most charitable interpretation is really shitty for Republicans. I.e., he's saying, I don't care if you vote Republican, this isn't a movement I want you to join that's going to yield ongoing policy wins into the future, all I care about is that I get my narcissistic validation, and then you can do what you want because it doesn't concern me. The "I'm going to shut down democracy and install a permanent authoritarian oligarchy" interpretation is better for his team!
The US military has such a better culture than the police do! Not necessarily good for its own purposes or people, but supportive of civilian control and rule of law.
The post-Lafayette Square memo Milley sent out was about as full-throated as they could be short of naming names.
Yeah, I think the military is the security service least likely to go Trumper.
FBI also really hates Trump, no?
The military is of course huge. The Marines and Air Force are much more conservative than the Army and Navy. But perhaps more importantly, with education piolarization the way it is the officer corps are anti-Trump. Plenty of enlisted who would happily do a coup.
FBI also really hates Trump, no?
I think that's less consistent. Apparently the NYC FBI office is in the tank.
34 you'd think they would have been purged by now. I'd be interested in reading a recent follow up about that.
35: Maybe from top leadership roles? But they're so insular. Does the President officially appoint anyone but the Director?
Not to mention the director, Wray, has served continuously since 2017.
Only Republicans can direct the FBI.
36 just scatter the suspect field agents to small regional offices in places like Nebraska (sorry Mobes) and Alaska (sorry teo).
We've got enough problems with the federal justice system already.
Lincoln is a nice place to live, but there aren't many good restaurants. Omaha has more traffic, but better eating.
There are probably moments that beat the FBI lab whacking an evidence gun with a mallet hard enough to break it into three pieces, but they're not coming to mind at the moment.
34,35. I'm also interested in reading about that, either the problems or any resolution. NYC FBI was packed with Giuliani guys for many years is my understanding, often in conflict with Washington office.
It looks like a Black guy from Massachusetts was appointed to head the NY office last year. (After someone else new in 2021, with more history in the same office, though broken up.)
Wow, I didn't hear about this. From the Dec 2023 press release after this guy was sentenced:
As an FBI official, MCGONIGAL helped investigate Deripaska and other Russian oligarchs. As an SAC, he supervised investigations into sanctions violations. Yet at the same time, he began building a relationship with an agent of Deripaska, in the hopes of doing business with Deripaska after he retired from the FBI.
In 2021, MCGONIGAL conspired to provide services to Deripaska, in violation of U.S. sanctions imposed on Deripaska in 2018. Specifically, following his negotiations with Deripaska's agent, MCGONIGAL agreed to and did investigate a rival Russian oligarch in return for concealed payments from Deripaska.
Also, Driscoll, the deputy director for NYC during 2021-23, had previously led the NYC Counterintelligence and Cyber Division. Whiffy, with the other stuff we know.
And McGonigal had himself led the NYC counterintelligence division 2016-18.
The allegations against McGonigal shocked the hush-hush world of his fellow top U.S. intelligence officials, and forced an extensive damage assessment by authorities given his depth of knowledge about U.S. espionage practices and extraordinary access to sensitive information.
Maybe enough to prompt even Chris Wray to clean house?
Yeah, like Trump and a lot of other NYC institutions they were in the pocket of the Russian mob.
Kenny Logins ruined Danger Zone by not having cellos and singing.
Africa has just the right amount of Kenny Logins, but still sounds pretty good with only cellos.
30: I wonder if some of Trump's beloved Christians are interpreting this as a prophecy of Rapture or some other apocalyptic event.
45. thank you! I now remember reading the story, but didn't realize how directly important his responsibilities were-- definitely not just an informant. Wikipedia doesn't say much, but he started by working for James Kallstrom.
A good survey of the current state of the race: https://countdownto2024.substack.com/p/three-months-out-enter-kamala
DOJ IG Horowitz (sp?) did a leisurely and ultimately fruitless review of the NY office and the Comey stuff* which basically concluded "can't do nuthin' cuz they used their own phones to text" unlike Strzok and Page (Strzok just got $1.2M for privacy violations. No word on whether any investigative methods that predated the advent of texting were used. Contrast with his role in complying with the sped up "investigation" of Andrew McCabe for his "leak" for which he was fired (also got an undisclosed settlement) and for which they attempted to freaking indict him (I think that utter assclown Durham).
Horowitz is viewed as a total straightshooter, and has been unwilling to be go along with a lot of stuff (unlike Durham) but he has been quite uneven in his work. Grassley** has been his main supporter (he fended off attempts by Trump admin to ouat him for a true believer).
*Apart from his big more comprehensive review of the whole FBI stuff which did briefly mention issues--I think the more focused probe was spun off of that.
**Several Grassley moles in the government IG offices played key roles in the HRC email debacle (not Horowitz, however).
53 is pretty incoherent, needs a much longer explanation.
TLTR is that just as with the media, official Washington is wired* for Republicans and has been for years. Most are not full Trumper but are easily exploited by him and his minions.
*Josh Marshall's phrase.
52 I think our coalition gets underpolled in general, and that turnout doesn't seem to get polled very accurately at all. The Impending Red Wave election of 2022 tells that story. Abortion is going to be on the ballot in some places, and that also messes up the polling.
It's undoubtedly sound that Harris should be focused on WI, MI, and PA. Or, to be more exact, on Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philly. Among voters where the choice isn't really between Harris and Trump, but between Harris and staying home.
There may also be voters where the choice is between Trump and staying home: I'm not sure Harris can really do much with those people, but the way 'weird' has gone viral this week suggests that there might be some room for that. (I kind of think this is where the Lincoln Project lives: it's a fairly limited goal, but things are close enough that any net increases for staying home over Trump could be material).