Boy I really broke the blog. I'm struggling with this news cycle because everything seems manufactured and overhyped.
I think the stuff will get interesting after the election is over. I heard one of the Congressional Reps from my State, Ayanna Pressley, one of the Squad Members, say something pretty wise when she was questioned about the election and Gaza. She said, "we know that we elect partners, not Saviors". And that Trump's America would be a pretty dark place. I think the interesting part comes when we see what coalitions come together after the election and what our elected are willing to push for.
I was talking to my mom about the sense of optimism and progress that had sprouted up quickly around Harris and she said, "That sounds like the feeling around Obama." And I reflected that it was pretty similar, but the Obama administration collectively threw a lot of cold water on that sense during its time in office, except for the stimulus and ACA (and even there there was a lot of self-negotiation, as frequently documented on this website). I like to think the Democratic coalition and leadership class has overcome some of that "we can't possibly do what we promised to do" instinct; obviously the judiciary and possibly the House will still be a big stumbling block even if they have.
"I like to think the Democratic coalition and leadership class has overcome some of that "we can't possibly do what we promised to do" instinct; obviously the judiciary and possibly the House will still be a big stumbling block even if they have."
These strikes me as utterly delusional about how the US government works. Obviously the next administration isn't going to be able to accomplish anything substantial, because Tester is likely to lose and we won't control the Senate, and even if we did we wouldn't have enough votes to get rid of the filibuster in a 50-50 tie scenario. And you can't do anything substantial with executive orders anymore because the Supreme Court has made it clear that they'll strike down any executive orders that are substantial liberal accomplishments.
Maybe the Obama administration really could have done a lot more (I'm not sure though, the fillibuster-proof window after Franken got seated and before Kennedy died was really really short, and Lieberman was a fucking asshole), but if you're expecting a Harris adminstration to do much beyond appointing a cabinet you're delusional (and even appointing a cabinet will be tough).
I have extensive thoughts on this matter but I don't particularly care to share as long as your starting point is calling me "utterly delusional".
5: I think Obama should have asked for a bigger stimulus and probably could have gotten more but how much more I don't know.
6: I've known you a long time and you strike me as someone with sufficient lusions.
Re: the OP, I've only skimmed it and some of the interesting bits are just paraphrases or links to sources I can't/don't want to follow, but even one part jumped out at me.
Scattered throughout Asimov's clippings were hints of our future -- the first woman on the moon in 1994, the last tiger in the wild in 2018, and "over 99% of the computer programmers who ever lived are alive now."
The first two, fine. What could the last thing have possibly meant? Was he forecasting the population shrinking such that there would be fewer people to be programmers, or simply computers that would think for themselves without programming needed, like his "positronic brains"? Bizarre.
That thing about computer programmers seems like it is probably true now and was also true in in 1974.
11: ugh. Duh. I don't talk (or write) much but I manage to do so without thinking too often anyway.
7: that's my memory of the stimulus and ACA. That Obama was constantly kneecapping himself out of some weird fetish that preemptive compromise would bring Republicans around and produce something bipartisan.
Since this is the politics thread, let me report on my informal poll of my two favorite 13-year-olds (white suburban kids):
+ They report very little political conversation among their respective friend groups and sports (swimming, soccer, baseball) team.
+ They report nonstop exposure to Trump ads, and some Harris ads, whenever they watch TV, streaming services, play games on Poki, or browse the web. E.g. "I was just trying to look at a recipe on Pintrest and there was an ad!" They both spontaneously quoted several anti-Harris ads in detail.
+ They report 5-6 texts a day on their phones related to the election, voting, or fundraising for candidates. "It's really annoying! There should be some way I can just tell them that I'm THIRTEEN."
They understood the concept of "swing state," but not the details behind it. I explained Pennsylvania's relative population size to them and they were both surprised to learn that we are the 6th largest [ed: apparently 5th; somehow we passed Illinois]. They already understood that California would go for Harris and Texas for Trump, but hadn't realized how knife's-edge close PA can be, and thus why they are getting utterly bombarded with ads.
That's a many texts as I get and I've given money.
I only get 1-2 texts a day and I've given money too!
I can only imagine it's detailed geotargeting given their neighborhoods (my immediate 3-4 blocks are probably 80% Democratic, 20% Republican, while their neighborhoods are closer to 60/40 or 55/45 D/R).
OTOH, I'm getting a US Postal Service mailer 3-4x a week from the Pennsylvania Republican Party at this point. Today's was headlined: "DONALD TRUMP DID NOT WRITE AND DOES NOT SUPPORT PROJECT 2025"
Yes, we get Republican mail close to daily.
If vast numbers of Trump online ads are being seen by 13 year olds, that doesn't say much for his targeting - or maybe they just have unusually mature browsing habits.
My DONALD TRUMP DID NOT WRITE AND DOES NOT SUPPORT PROJECT 2025" t-shirt is raising a lot of questions already answered, etc.
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I think they changed the interstitials to sell more plushies. This is annoying. OTOH, I want a plushy.
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So, I went to my town Democratic committee meeting last week to learn about Harris/Walz volunteer activities. So, now I'm going to do some useless canvassing for local candidates, becaus3 I want to meet my Senior Senator.
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Pennsylvania sounds stressful.
Also I hope Pennsylvania saves the world.
21: I'll ho to NH or PA too. I guess people are going to PA colleges to register students to vote.
I know America is exceptional and all, but pimping out your volunteers seems a bit much.
I take it back. They did a bang up job on those plushies. Have to recognize game.
A plushy is just the fursona for a toy.
Interstitial? Breakbumper? I guess it isn't streaming native in Japan.
I have no idea what it is so I figured it was a Pokémon.
There is probably cross-branding potential.
Eisenhower's putting green is looking a bit ragged.
Eisenhower only commanded troops in combat in Europe that one time.
Apparently, my grandparents shopped at the same housewares places as Eisenhower.
They have the same pot we still use.
Pots can be highly durable!
Yeah, Revereware is really made well.
If vast numbers of Trump online ads are being seen by 13 year olds, that doesn't say much for his targeting
Honestly, I'm starting to suspect their targeting is fairly crude. My guess is that it is 80% geography and 20% format/platform. I don't have the sense that the ads are being targeted any more precisely than that. In a 60/40 D/R Pennsylvania zip code/mini media market and watching sports? Here's a Trump ad!
Pennsylvania sounds stressful.
It's definitely intense. I have had three flyers left on my doorstep in the last couple of weeks and one in-person canvasser already. I can't remember if it was this bad in 2016. Back in 2020 we were all trying to bend the curve and not do things in person.
Also I hope Pennsylvania saves the world.
You and me both, heebie.
My oldest niece is in college in Ohio. You'd better believe she is voting absentee in PA.
Online ads are still cheap compared to TV right? So when a campaign with a lot of cash goes that route, they're probably going to blanket it within a geographical area, not bother too much about microtargeting.
Back in 2020 we were all trying to bend the curve and not do things in person.
I don't remember when we started doing things in person for the campaign, but probably in September. We'd get training outside and they'd say "stay outside for safety" and give me a list of addresses that included apartment buildings, so I went into the apartment buildings where I could.
I'm not great with subtext, but the subtext I got was, "It's too close to worry about death."
That was more October than September though.
That is, October was definitely canvassing and talking to people. September was leafleting where I was supposed to stay outside but didn't if I could get into the building.
Would be great to catch up with Pittsburgh folks if I do *go* to PA. I'm not sure where they send us.
I think people are going to be going to N.H. pretty regularly. I don't really see that as a swing state for the presidential election. Ore even necessarily for the other Federal office, but right now their legislature and governor are all Republicans, so getting Dems out could help with that.
In the local paper, there's a photo of a few kids called "4-Hers". This was not at all self-explanatory for me. It turns out to be what our paper calls members of 4H. Heh.