I feel the same way. I have enjoyed feeling _more_ hopeful than I was two months ago, but still quite worried.
The one attempt at optimism that I would make in response to the tweet in the OP, is that I've seen several articles quoting Trump supporters who saw it as a positive that he mostly didn't do the crazy things he talked about in his first term*. So, hopefully it's three votes for pizza, one vote for, "kill and eat you" and one vote for the Kill And Eat you falafel stand** which has a concerning name but usually the food is okay.
I'm not claiming that is great reason for optimism.
* I am aware of the several notable exceptions to this statement.
** Israeli
Eh. A win is a win.
I don't know how to feel about 45% of my fellow Americans being OK with this shit. I think back to 2004 and that was discouraging as well. But Al Qaeda was real. I could sympathize with people who wanted an authoritarian response to a very scary external threat. The stuff Trump talks about is total nonsense! Even the economy... it's not great. But it's fine? I can't see any meaningful way to the conclusion that Biden is destroying America and Harris will continue doing the same.
Also, remember, the debate was on the evening of the 10th, and here we are on (in the US) the late morning of the 13th. The first post-debate polls are only just starting to come out because it takes a couple of days to do the polling.
And, too, it takes a while for events to affect polls. Biden's polling didn't move for almost two weeks after the first debate - neither did Trump's. They only really started to shift immediately after the Guardian wrote an article saying confidently "no, the debate hasn't really affected Biden at all" and the day after that Trump doubled his lead.
At the local grocery store a few days ago, there were some old folks *very* loudly discussing how, obviously, nobody could have been so stupid as to actually vote for Biden in 2020, the results were entirely fabricated, etc. I piped up, all friendly-like, "I voted for Biden, actually!" Their very next question was, "Did you get the shot?", and when I said I did, they laughed and told me at least I'd be dead soon. It's not like I didn't know there were such people around--north Florida, man--but still, to get it right in the face that way. So, also morose.
According to 538 there have been three polls conducted entirely after the debate (there were a couple where they called some people before and others after) and those are Harris +5, +5, +4. The most recent polls that were conducted entirely before the debate were Harris +4, even, +2. So maybe a bit of a boost?
But I agree with 4 as well.
Definitely agree with you, hg. I was deeply disappointed by the republican primaries-- his power comes from people who work themselves into a rage by watching Fox, and fundamentalists too I guess. That party and those people need a path back to reality, and to choose to go that way.
I think this came up in the debate thread-- KH is the daughter of two immigrants, and she chose not to say that either her own family's experience or the demographics of who commits crimes in the US support the true claim that immigrants are a net benefit. Not saying that was a calculated decision, because it's apparently an unpopular truth.
I come back to that pizza v. Kill you and eat you tweet a lot. I have lost all ability to understand what Trump voters want and why except in the very broadest of strokes.
On the one hand, there are a lot of Americans - including non-naturalized immigrants, the previously incarcerated in most states, etc. - who are not part of the denominator for 45-47%. Trump voters in 2020 were 29% of the adult population.
On the other hand, considering all the eligible voters who don't vote, that's another 31% of adults who mostly are just apathetically acquiescing to Trump, although a slice of those had their vote suppressed by inconvenience or other weapons.
And then there's the safe-state phenomenon... I may try to recalculate these percentages for just swing states, but I bet it'll be similar.
Sure, I can say racist, sexist, they just want to hurt people, but that's what I mean by broad strokes. Trump's specific incompetent lunacy still doesn't make any sense.
Okay, I did the calculations. In the eight states where the 2020 Biden-Trump absolute margin was less than 5 points, 32% of adults voted for Trump, 26% were eligible but didn't vote.
So supporting Trump, plus the indifferent, plus the suppressed adds up to 58.6% in swing states, 59.8% in the other 42 states plus DC. Not that different.
It's not like I didn't know there were such people around--north Florida, man--but still, to get it right in the face that way.
I have a kinda deep existential sadness about Florida. It was basically a democratic state when I was growing up! It's got so many amazing natural resources that should not be destroyed! It's got so many fragile communities that need help!
Where as Texas is incrementally moving bluer (and of course Abbott's shenanigans are getting more unhinged to keep it red) but on the whole it's not as upsetting as Florida because it hasn't upended itself with quite so quick the whiplash. Well, differently upsetting. It's still a mess here.
I'm worried about Florida because I had an older relative there who needs some medical care and I'm going to go visit him to help. This will be either right before or after the election.
13: Why are you lumping the suppressed in with the indifferent? The suppressed aren't necessarily acquiescent.
I'd agree it's depressing, but several caveats come to mind.
1. The baseline human level of support for "kill and eat you" in any given population is around 1 in 5. Witness that old class blog post about the crazification factor, or countless literal or figurative witch hunts and pogroms throughout history. People suck.
2. The floor of either party in America's presidential race, post-Southern Strategy realignment, is around 2 in 5. The Electoral College can make this look much closer than it really is, or alternately, much more lopsided. (1984: Mondale got 13 electoral votes to Reagan's 525, but his percentage of the popular vote was... 40.6%!) First-past-the-post systems suck.
Admittedly those aren't reasons to feel any more optimistic about what will happen in November, but they are reasons to feel less bad about the American public. We aren't in this position because Americans are uniquely assholes. I'm not saying Americans aren't uniquely assholes, I'm just saying that's not why we're in this position, we're in this position for systemic reasons. However, I will attempt to offer two reasons to actually be optimistic about November:
3. Democrats have been unusually smart for the past few months/years. I can't think of a thing under their control they've screwed up while Biden has been in office. The Israel-Palestine conflict, I guess, and I'm sure someone more plugged in than me can think of some more examples, but it seems much better than previous administrations.
4. Trump is a known quality and has nowhere to go but down. He's not the incumbent and also not the outsider, just an asshole out for himself and everyone knows it. Harris still has room to make her profile bigger and better.
I got a text poll of some kind from Emerson college polling, but I didn't answer, because I refuse to engage with unsolicited text messages, and I reported it as junk. I will answer the phone if caller ID is accurate.
16: Because the data won't let me split them, and I think 90% of them are probably the indifferent.
||
Does anyone understand what the issues are in the Boeing strike, particularly with regards to AI?
How much of their production is in non-union states? This is not completely off-topic, because I worry that how it goes could influence the election.
|>
I wish I could envision a scenario where the fever breaks and the crazification factor recedes back to 27%. I can't.
I am very much the OP but too morose to elaborate.
I'm more..... Nevermind. I misunderstood.
Boeing and AI are two things that should never go together
AI could probably come up with better explanations as to why the door blew off.
Me in dentist chair yesterday.
Dentist (young black woman): I'm so behind on the new, I even missed the debate the other night.
Tech (older white woman, hiking enthusiast): You didn't miss anything --just a lot of he said, she said.
Other tech from beyond partition (woman): Yeah, just a lot of bickering.
Dentist: Was it as bad as when they were bickering about golf scores? [JPS-- Did that happen some time?]
Me (silently): Just go ahead and drill into my frontal lobe if the Novocaine works that far up..
I know it's just "neutral" office talk (dentist and one tech were fill-ins and di not seem to know each other)
Boeing and AI sitting in a tree
K-I-S-S-I-N-G
First came the code
Then the unwary
Very big day for the mortuary
I am also this tweet from digby (other then he's not in my backyard today):
I just can't listen to him today. He's practically in my back yard and I feel sickened by it.
He's a monster and a psychopath and I can't believe that almost half the people in this country admire him. It's so depressing.
I think he's at his golf course, which is a very short distance down the road from the Portuguese Bend Landslide.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/zVmAtiFusUfapjDk7
[JPS-- Did that happen some time?]
Answering a question about his fitness, Trump, who would be 82 at the end of a second term, bragged that he was in "very good shape" and had recently won two championships at one of his golf courses. "To do that, you have to be quite smart and you have to be able to hit the ball a long way," Trump said.
Biden, he said, "can't hit a ball 50 yards."
Biden then touted his his own golf abilities. "I got my handicap, when I was vice president, down to six," Biden said. He again challenged Trump to a golf match, but only if Trump carried his bag of clubs himself.
"Think you can do it?" asked Biden, whose handicap is listed on the United State Golf Association's website as 6.7, with the last update in July 2018. Trump's handicap last updated in June 2021 is listed as 2.5. Biden would be 86 at the end of his second term.
He again challenged Trump to a golf match, but only if Trump carried his bag of clubs himself.
That is some first-rate trolling.
https://www.ft.com/content/f0a6d5a8-63b0-41f2-9c96-9991b3060f82
District 751 leaders announced on Sunday that they had reached a tentative deal with the company. The agreement included a 25 per cent wage rise, increased input on safety issues and, critically, guarantees that a new commercial jetliner would be built in Washington if it is launched in the next four years. That commitment was seen as essential to preserving jobs in the Puget Sound area after two decades in which Boeing has expanded work at its non-union factory in South Carolina.AI not mentioned.
[...]
But for the past eight years the machinists' pay increases have been capped at 4 per cent while inflation eroded their buying power.
[...]
District 751's membership approved that [2014] deal in a 51 per cent to 49 per cent vote that the union's North American leadership scheduled over a holiday period when many opponents were out of town.
I read the headlines. I'm also wondering if this is going to look like Labor unrest that will spook moderates.
I wish I could envision a scenario where the fever breaks and the crazification factor recedes back to 27%. I can't.
I mean, whatever. I'm perennially naive and I live in a bubble. So my predictions/assessment are no good.
But I think that Trump losing again, and then all the trials happening and him finally going to jail would break the fever. Losing an election could happen to anyone, but lose two elections and that guy's a loser. I think Trump losing twice would get the electorate back to where it was pre-Trump because I don't think anyone else can bring out the crazy that boosted him over Clinton.
Then, I wish to god that Harris would do shit that would actually help Democrats. Reintroduce the Fairness Doctrine. Have the IRS go after churches that campaign for a candidate. Make DC a state. All that shit that the super-olds won't do because they don't fight because it doesn't look neutral or something.
It is a little soon for an aside, but I will anyway. There have been a few articles about how Newsom is sad because his path to the presidency is blocked for the foreseeable and I have enjoyed the thought of that immensely.
re: Nate the Bigger Asshole:
🇺🇲 Presidential Election Forecasts (Sept. 13) - Chance of Winning
• @FiveThirtyEight - 🔵 Harris 56-43%
• @RacetotheWH - 🔵 Harris 56-44%
• @DecisionDeskHQ - 🔵 Harris 54-46%
• @CNalysis - 🔵 Harris 52-47%
• @jhkersting - 🔵 Harris 51-48%
• @NateSilver538- 🔴 Trump 61-39%
Then, I wish to god that Harris would do shit that would actually help Democrats. Reintroduce the Fairness Doctrine. Have the IRS go after churches that campaign for a candidate. Make DC a state. All that shit that the super-olds won't do because they don't fight because it doesn't look neutral or something.
Pass that goddamn fairness-in-voting or whatever it was called bill. Like that should have been priority #1 for the past four years. Put a highspeed rail between me and everywhere I want to go.
Per OP, it is all too fucking close, but Nate is:
1) Still downgrading KH for no convention bounce (I think it was pre-bounced)
2) Apparently weights pollsters quite differently from most--such as Trafalgar
40.last: I JUST WANT TO GO TO THAT STORE OVER THERE BUT THERE'S THIS FUCKING HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINE IN THE WAY!
40.last: I JUST WANT TO GO TO THAT STORE OVER THERE BUT THERE'S THIS FUCKING HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINE IN THE WAY!
I'd be curious to see Silver's explanation, but not curious enough to pay him for it.
I'm becoming prejudiced against white people, which is awkward because my wife and son are white.
45: I think It's mostly in 41 but I don't pay either. I cannot believe the bounce adjustment is still in play, however, so many weeks on. (and dubious to begin with given this year's timing).
6: Old White dudes from the midwest are the worst.
6 s/b 46, but almost works for 6.
45, 47: I think his economic fundamentals are not as positive as others--in fact may be negative for "Incumbent."
This is a weird election to try to model.
37: I was musing about how he can possibly sustain his profile enough to run after Harris. He's termed out of the governorship in two years, and if Harris serves two terms that comes to six years in the wilderness. Maybe he superglues his lips to her ass and tries to maneuver so she appoints him to something federal - or better, appoints Schiff or Padilla so he can jump to Senate.
Even if he wangles something so he's a plausible candidate in 2032, I can't imagine the Dem primary voters going for two Californians in a row.
In the nightmare scenario that he runs against an incumbent Republican in 2028... well, he might have a shot, but the California problem would be if anything more severe.
41,45 Nate Silver has a business arrangement with Peter Theil paying him-- apologies if it's common knowledge, but aside from flaws stemming from his gambling perspective, he's being paid by someone not interested in honesty. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
This is slightly old, but this post from Nate Silver seemed like an important set of considerations https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-electoral-college-bias-has-returned
And with political gambling markets better developed, Thiel's only one of those, he gains a lot of conflict of interest just from the potential to frontrun his model updates - also conceivably a big payday from actual result bets (is it possible to hedge on both sides and come out on top if the true odds were 60/40 and your counterparties thought it was 50/50?), but that may be riskier.
It's not just betting on the eventual winner, it's buying and selling contracts, right? So if someone knows that a well known model is going to move in Trump's favor you buy Trump at 40 and sell at 50 and short Harris 60 cover 50.
Seems like a risky move when one of the candidates is trying to start a race war in Ohio.
58: Yes, that's what I mean at front-running. But maybe bigger paydaysare possible actually betting on the winner.
OT: Christopher Lloyd now looks like Uncle Fester when dressed regular.
This Weibo comment is quite something: "When I was born they said there were too many. When I gave birth they said there were too few. When I wanted to work they said I was too old. And when I retire they say I'm too young" From Alan Wong on twitter.
A volcano killed his girlfriend, so now he's going to try to kill a volcano called Dante's Peak.
I don't know who Alan Wong is. But people seem fine with my age.
If you show an abandoned mine entrance in the first act, you have to have the protagonists shelter from the pyroclastic flow in the mine in the third act.
I'm talking about narratives, not science.
(For those not following along.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-legislature-approves-draft-proposal-raise-retirement-age-2024-09-13/)
I doubt it would make any difference, but I do wonder how things would be politically if there was a more general and explicit acceptance reflected in the discourse that a serious worldwide disruptive epidemic unlike anything seen for a century does in fact make things worse in a lot of different ways for a fairly long time. And recovery from those issues (some easy to anticipate, others hard) is difficult and fraught with problems and prone to over*- and undershooting. Not excuse-making, but yes, if you are on a fixed income and it gets harder to make and distribute goods and services, you are going to be a bit poorer. Your fault or not. In the 2024 context (and historically) this is probably only a quite marginal thing, but elections are decided in the margins.
It was in fact a tough four years, we did fairly well comparatively, especially considering opposition politicians and media doing things like undermining public health measures in pursuit of political gain**.
*See New Zealand and its current severe political and economic struggles, plausibly triggered in large part by backlash to draconian Covid measures which were admired at the time. (and may have been "right"!)
**This is one of my biggest pet peeves of political coverage of the early days of the Biden admin--Rs, Fox and their ilk explicitly trying and succeeding in making things worse re:Covid response and it really not being discussed as such in the media. Instead at the NYT you got the likes of David Leonhardt showing his whole ass every few weeks with quibbles and bitches about good faith attempts to navigate the complicated and harrowing crisis.
72
One negative side effect of how politicized Covid became was that I felt like it made it impossible to have a realistic conversation about risk assessment and balancing long term social goals.
We had the conversation, the idea that certain levels of risk were too high to ask someone to face in order to support themselves decisively lost to the idea that workers are expendable.
Moby is right.
I was kind of hoping we could get improved clean indoor air standards, but not so much.
My neighbor works remotely in HR for a mutual fund company that was bought out by Morgan Stanley. Most of their workers are back in the office, but they spent a ton of money upgrading ventilation and filtration in their buildings. The rest of us aren't worth that.
72: Yeah, bad faith politicization in particular generally destroys reasoned discussion . See climatr change.
74 is unfortunately right.
14: Texas was blue when I grew up there. Southern strategy yes, but also the lesson drawn (apparently) from JFK, that millions of people think of government as something that happens on TV, so why not have movie stars, or "reality" show stars as your front men. You can spew all manner of bad faith and folks will buy it.
I'm also sad about Florida--but not enough to move back to try to change things.
17.3: The biggest thing Biden has unequivocally screwed up has been the FAFSA roll-out, and it looks like it's going to hurt colleges and annoy HS seniors and their parents for yet another year. Providing this level of "government doesn't work" evidence to a group of anxious likely voters two years in a row strikes me as a healthcare.gov-style own goal. I get that Congress and appropriations make it all more challenging, and most of the Dept of Ed energy has gone to student loans, but it's so bad that I'm surprised the media hadn't made more of an issue of it.
72: But also what is going on with Republicans in NY and NJ who want to ban mask wearing? Like, that's crying out for Walt's "Mind your own damn business."
Folks who are mystified by folks backing Trump, are, I think using the wrong frame. You're thinking "how can they see what I see and come to such different conclusions?" But they're not seeing what you see, and what they do see is pre-interpreted for them by bad faith propagandists. I realize everybody knows this, but it's still hard not to think that we share a reality. We don't! They live in a different fact universe. The characters have the same names, but the villains and heroes are all flipped. Propaganda works.
My own theory of the election is that a lot of conservative women are lying to pollsters with their husbands around but will vote for Kamala in the booth and it's not going to be close. I will believe this until then results roll in.
I am much less of a vote by mail booster than most Democrats for reasons like that.
But it would be ludicrous to be that optimistic.
but will vote for Kamala in the booth
But if they vote early...
81: Walk-in early voting is definitely a blessing for this reason.
I take that Florida State is starting the season 0-3 as a sign that evil might be past its high water mark. But I am really not wanting to let myself get hopeful enough that I don't canvass.
80.2 : this would mean that already huge gender gap in the polls is actually underestimating it. Also it could explain why the gap is largest among the young- the young women are least likely to be married.
Has any polling been done to find out what percentage of married couples cancel out each others' votes?
I just made that up out of whole cloth.
Out in the wilds of FB, I have seen an apparently good-faith argument that Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris was Bad, Actually. Or maybe the phrase was "a liability for the Harris campaign."
My gast was so entirely flabbered that I just snarked at the guy, and he came back with more, that he was a Data Scientist and had advanced degrees and whatnot. Apparently he thinks that searching on "Swift Harris" produces links to a previous Swift boyfriend whose last name is Harris, and that this is going to confuse voters.
Just had to share -- I'll report again if there's more in the morning. I guess it's good news for John McCain's campaign, too.
Even the most casual Swifty knows she only dated Calvin for like a year.
Hobbes is cuter anyway.
He's also not even eligible to be president, not being American.
About to go talk to Jewish people about the election. BRB.
Another Trump-adjacent shooting, says the NYT. Should I be morose that they keep missing? I'm morose that I don't even know the answer to that question. [I know no details, just saw a NYT alert email].
Oh, never mind, just two Florida Men shooting at each other.
Its hilarious to me that it happened when it was out golfing. The guy is down in the polls like 2-3% nationally, and instead of touring swing states he's out playing golf at his club.
Vance doesn't have the juice to start a race war all by himself.
Still, he's giving it the old college try.
Ohio State is a big school, some students can slip through her cracks.
Seems to be a crackpot old white guy.
Mixed political background Trump 2016. Wanted Gabbard 2020. Haley-Vivelk iin '24.
I think registered as independent.
From the Washington post:
Per the witness, Bradshaw said, the individual was also carrying two backpacks full of ceramic tiles.
So, he's probably in the flooring industry.
From limited info, specific political "positions" aside, the profile he seems somewhat similar to was the dude from Iowa(?) who shot up the Congressional baseball game.
Iowa is just a myth. He was from Illinois.
Leon Musk out here encouraging both sides assassination attempts.
Actually even worse than "both sides" of the presidential ticket; he references "Biden/Harris" rather than "Harris/Walz."
OT: I'd forgotten that "Le Pacte des Loups" has a "let me use my strong hand" moment.
One stupid debate and suddenly I'm not even worth shooting anymore.
Via Kelsey Atherton on Bluesky:
Trump is now experiencing a kind of Dickensian reckoning, where attempts are made on his life and instead of succeeding they merely rob him of the ability to find joy in what once motivated him.
So far we have:
Assassin of rallies past
Assassin of golfing present
An Assassin of Futures must
be up
106 is deeply puzzling. Maybe they were ceramic armour plates, like in body armour, and the WP has just got confused.
Probably. But maybe The Bradford Exchange is behind this.
Apparently the shooter tried to volunteer for Ukraine. The conspiracy theories will make life harder for them.
80: That was exactly what felt so striking about my grocery store experience up top, meeting these mirror-universe freaks face to face. There's absolutely nothing interesting about "old white bozos from Starke (or wherever) support Trump," and yet. I already knew I was surrounded by them, but I guess I hadn't *really* known it. When they told me how great it was that the COVID vaccine was going to kill me soon, I tried to guilt them with "this is how you talk to people in your community? this is how you feel about folks you pass in the bulk aisle?" and it kinda worked? One said at least *she* hadn't been the one to wish me dead, no, that was the other one of them (it was both). Not much to build a shared reality on there, though.
The thing about a reality where the covid vaccine is a leading cause of death is that it means the medical community is an absolute force for evil. Are these people going to doctors?
I'm know some people have better genes and smoked less, but men in my family rarely reached 65 before cardiologist became a thing.
I bet "my doctor is fine, it's Anthony Fauci who is a demon lizard" works okay for them. When I walked away, they were grumbling that their children had gotten vaccinated and thus had "no immunity left at all."
||
Are the white ones just dead or what?
|>
115: the Wool Exchange in Bradford is fine being a splendid Gothic landmark and both a giant bookshop and a hideous dive bar:
I don't see that any of those qualities preclude involvement. If anything, the reverse.
115 was addressed to people who watched the less popular American cable TV channels in the 1980s.
If it weren't for morose I'd have no rose at all.
Hey, I've got a question...
My kid's teacher has corrected his homework, saying that "raise in my allowance" is incorrect and there's a different, correct preposition. But I can't think what it could be and I'm not finding a dictionary answer.
Any thoughts? I'm bridling a little bit at this teacher, but the real lesson here might be "let jerks with authority think they are right."
Yes, that's probably the lesson. But maybe "raise o' my allowance"?
https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/hes-jumped-the-shark
Our local January 6 rioter/Republican state senate candidate apparently got sober in when he was in prison, so he decided to reject Trump and now just endorsed Kamala. Seems like Trump may be starting to lose his base.
In 8th grade, our science teacher asked "What is the name of the organization that oversees space exploration in the U.S.?" One kid says "NASA," pronounced the way it usually is as if it were a word. Teacher says he's wrong. Next kid says "National Aeronautics and Space Administration." Teachers says he's wrong. We all start defending the other kids' answers, because they were obviously right and some of us have the book open to the page where the answer is. The teacher scowls at us and says the answer is "N.A.S.A.," pronouncing each letter separately as I have never heard in my entire life before or since. That taught us about life. When the space shuttle blew up a few years later, it was probably her fault some how.
Our state capital grounds just got a new Christa McAuliffe statue.
My kid's teacher has corrected his homework, saying that "raise in my allowance" is incorrect and there's a different, correct preposition. But I can't think what it could be and I'm not finding a dictionary answer.
BrE rather than AmE speaker here, so aim off for that, but I would say that the error is not
raise *in my allowance
but
*raise in my allowance.
I wouldn't talk about a raise in anything. "I got a raise" is fine, but "I got a raise in my allowance" is not. That's why you can't think of the right preposition; the preposition isn't the bit that's wrong.
137.last: So would "raise in pay" also be inappropriate? "Raise in salary"? Google advises me that "rise in pay" is how folks from the peculiar side of the Atlantic would say it, but that ain't how we do it here.
132: Even after that watershed moment, the Fonz could have won the electoral college. And I've been hearing for a long time that "this particular set of outrages finally crosses a line." We'll see.
128: I like that one.
In my idiolect--educated Scottish standard English, more or less--"raise" is a transitive verb, as in "The government plans to raise taxes" or "The telephone call raised doubts in my mind." or "You raise me up."*
But I would never talk about a "raise" _in_ something. If you are using the prepositional phrase** "in my allowance", you'd ordinarily expect the intransitive form, "rise". I don't know if "raise in" is wrong, technically, if one was going full grammar pedant, in fact, I suspect it's not technically wrong, but it definitely smells funny in my idiolect, and I'd never use it.
* I'm thinking of the god-awful song here.
** there's probably a better or more specific term here.
139 reminds me of the Australian goddess of finance, Naomi, as in "Naomi this, naomi that, naomi sixty-six thousand dollars for fiscal 2023 alone..."
So would "raise in pay" also be inappropriate? "Raise in salary"?
I would think so - yes, all of those are incorrect. As are "raise in unemployment," "raise in temperature", etc.
Interesting! So the phrase "I got a raise" is a complete sentence in US English, and unambiguously refers to pay. Does UK English allow for "I got a rise"? Or does one need to specify further?
143: UK English does allow that but it is ambiguous because getting a rise out of someone means, basically, trolling them successfully. (the reference in both cases is probably to fishing; idea of a fish rising from the bottom of the river towards the bait). So you'd normally say "I got a pay rise".
the reference in both cases is probably to fishing
I totally buy that, but as a kid I remember the image in my head was much more literal: someone rearing up from wherever they had been sitting, minding their own business, to swat you for being annoying.
means, basically, trolling them successfully
Also true in the US.
Also true in the US.
Indeed, but not ambiguous, because you don't talk about pay rises.
I join everyone who thinks "I got a raise in my [salary/allowance]" at least sounds odd, but I can't rephrase it with a different preposition that sounds better. "A raise of my allowance" hits me in the same not-quite-right place -- not very wrong, but awkward somehow. I think I would have to rephrase it with raise as a verb: "My mom raised my allowance", because "raise" as a noun without an explanatory prepositional phrase applies only to salaries for me. A kid saying "I got a raise" would be strongly implying that they were actually employed.
Yeah. I think the problem is like you say: that it is more natural to use the verb form and say I asked my parents to raise my allowance.
But "raise in pay", "raise in salary" both sound fine to me.
There are lots of meanings for "raise", but the one that is closest in meaning is "increase". Increase in my allowance/pay/salary are all fine to my ear.
Anyway, I am pissed at the guy for circling the "in" and answering my kid's very sincere question about what is better with "figure it out", because I am near certain that he did not figure all this out. But it is too soon for a big grammar fight! It may never be time for a big grammar fight. The lesson of this year, difficult for me and my kid both, is to pick our battles.
Also, I named the new dog Steady because I always wanted to use that name. Now it is weird to call my kid that on here.
If I were going to guess about the teacher's "figure it out", it's that he had the same reaction that it sounded a little funny, and couldn't figure out how to fix it without putting in more effort than he felt like doing. I kind of agree with his ear, but he's a clown for not telling your kid what he would accept as correct.
Or the teacher is pointing out that Megan has only given her kid a small raise in nominal allowance and the real value, adjusted for inflation, has fallen.
re: 151
Yeah. I also doubt he has the vocabulary to explain what's wrong with it using grammatical terms. I'm not even sure it's that big a deal if teachers go all in on grammar terminology, although it has had a bit of a revival here in the UK (in both good and bad ways) over the past 10-12 years for primary aged children and teachers.
There are lots of grammar terms that I only learned in Spanish class. That is, the English word for the grammar we were learning in Spanish. Fortunately, I've forgotten them.
I learned from Pink Floyd's song "Money" that Brits talk about a rise instead of a raise. But it was firmly lodged in my brain in 1973. I don't know what that teacher is on about. It's definitely not the preposition that's off, as nearly everyone has observed by now.
Going back to this:
"raise in my allowance" is incorrect and there's a different, correct preposition
What's the correct preposition to those who think there is one? A number of objections to "raise in" seem to rule out any form of "raise [preposition] my allowance."
"I got an idiocy in my teacher"
I had a roommate who married his former high school teacher, if that's what you mean.
A couple friends suggested "raise to my allowance", but google trends says that is used about half as much as "raise in my allowance".
I don't think there's a better preposition. It is just that the phrase sounds weird and should take the verb form of raise instead.
What's the context? What's the full sentence being critiqued here?
I don't have it in front of me. It is a sentence to use the Word of the Day, which was not part of the corrected phrase.
So he pointed out an alleged error in a part of the assignment that was not the main point and then refused to explain what the error was or how to fix it? That doesn't seem like great pedagogy.
"I got a raisin in my allowance"
I think "not great pegagogy" is going to be the theme of the year. I have heard mixed things about him. Some good upsides and some critiques. I am hoping it turns out net positive.
It was funnier before. And still accurate.
"Día" is one of those endlessly annoying words that end in a but are masculine: la palabra del día. Palabra de "la palabra del día" del día.
I'm doing Language Transfer (https://www.languagetransfer.org/) as a Spanish refresher, and the premise is that the more you can make sense of a language, the less you have to memorize. I've really enjoyed all the linguistic connections that I hadn't known. One of the ones today was that -ma nouns like systema, problema, aroma, tend to be masculine because they're imported from Greek, and while they're neutral in Greek, neutral words resemble masculine words more than feminine and so they were imported as masculine.
I also learned that Usted is a contraction of two words that roughly mean Your Honor, and so conjugating it like he/she has a parallel the way we might say, "Does Your Honor want to sign this?" instead of "Do you?"
We're in the second row so I have to worry about getting splattered by watermelon.
Let us know how the Gallagher show goes!
The teacher scowls at us and says the answer is "N.A.S.A.," pronouncing each letter separately as I have never heard in my entire life before or since.
On this note, I'm reminded of how the kids' teachers were super neurotic in 1st or 2nd grade about how to read numbers outloud, and you are absolutely positively not allowed to use the word "and" until you get to the decimal point. Don't you dare read "1020" as one thousand and twenty, that would be appallingly confusing and no one will understand you. It's "one thousand twenty".
one thousand and twenty ones
one thousand and two tens
one thousands and zero hundreds and two tens and zero ones
Maybe the watermelon is in the second act.
IS THE WATERMELON ON THE MANTELPIECE
That's just a bad place for a melon. Too narrow and a disaster if it rolls.
If the melon is that soft it's way overripe anyway.
I also learned that Usted is a contraction of two words that roughly mean Your Honor, and so conjugating it like he/she has a parallel the way we might say, "Does Your Honor want to sign this?" instead of "Do you?"
And in Italian they had something similar, but instead of abbreviating it they pronominalized it, and because it was a feminine noun, the pronoun is the same as "she". So the same becomes "Does She?"
In German, "she" and "they" are both "sie," so they are spelled the same but take different verb forms. As opposed to the formal "you," which is "Sie" and takes the same verbs as the "sie" that's "they."
That said, it's still the easiest of the several languages I have lived among.
"Día" is one of those endlessly annoying words that end in a but are masculine: la palabra del día. Palabra de "la palabra del día" del día.
Presumably because dies is masculine in Latin, also anomalously.
Czech is really hard. I've been exposed to it for 20 years, but have only made periodic short attempts to really learn it. But ...
* 4 grammatical genders (masculine animate, masculine inanimate, feminine, neuter) -- which is 1 more than most gendered European languages*
* 7 noun cases (nominative, genitive, dative, accusative, vocative, locative, instrumental) -- which is 3 more than a lot of European languages.
* Pronouns are complicated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_declension#Pronouns - e.g. what's the first person plural instrumental form of "I"?
* there are loads of verb prefixes, like "v-" (in), etc http://cokdybysme.net/pdfs/czechprefixes.pdf
So, my basic noun vocabulary is decent, and I can do basic things like buying things or whatever, but constructing sentences with the correct grammar that aren't very basic is not good. My pronunciation is much better than my grammar, so people often assume when I talk that I will understand them as I'll get the stress on the word right, and pronounce the ř , and I probably won't understand them at all.
I have the same problem with French, where my basic pronunciation is quite good (I think, and have been told) but my grammar is very poor. We were in France at a camp site in August, and when the friends we were travelling with spoke to the people in the campsite bakery in French the staff replied in English, but when I spoke to them in French, they immediately replied in rapid French, and I don't look any more French or have better French grammar and vocabulary, so I assume it's just pronunciation.
* fucking _numbers_** are gendered.
** OK, one and two are gendered.
4 grammatical genders (masculine animate, masculine inanimate, feminine, neuter)
Good lord. This provides scope for bitter arguments between pedantic Czech authors of novels about zombies.
And I thought Russian was bad with three genders, six cases, and verbs existing in two moods - each mood takes the same set of suffixes for tense, person and number, but they mean different things, so if you use the present-tense endings on the imperfective mood it means present tense, but if you use them on the perfective it means future tense. (I think. It's been a while.)
ttaM, have you been exposed to enough Russian to have an opinion on whether it's more or less aggravating to learn than Czech?
My own reaction was "Whew, Russian is a nice well-behaved Indo-European language," but I gather that this is not usual and surely happened because I was coming to it from Georgian.
The other thing that happened to me, and I may have told this story here before, is that years-previous efforts to learn Polish had left some pattern in my brain's language centers that went "Slavic language -> stress on a word's next-to-last syllable." One of the elements of Russian that learners tend to complain about is its seemingly random stress. My unconscious just ran roughshod over that and imposed the very orderly pattern of Polish. Problem solved!
Anyway, during one lesson my Russian tutor exclaimed, "My God! You speak Russian like a Warsaw aristocrat!" A dozen years later, I'm still amused, and I like to think that if I ever got the chance to tell the story to my Polish teacher, she would have been amused too.
Re: 188
No idea. I did a couple of terms of Russian in high school but it was a decade or more before I was first exposed to Czech, and the Russian was super-basic stuff to give us a tiny flavour of something not French or German.
Czech stress is generally first syllable and quite consistent/fixed.
I came to Russian from Kyrgyz and felt very much "Whew" about it, like Doug did coming from Georgian. Kyrgyz hasn't got gender or too much other complexity as these things go, but it's not Indo-European (it's Turkic) and that bedrock commonality turns out to be super helpful when you're flailing around out at the edge of your language skills.
190: Is there some internal connection between Krygyz and Kymyz? I've always read your pseud as Kimmy's Mustache and pictured you helping some lesbian stay closeted.
191: Some! Peace Corps in the hinterlands, language study in Bishkek, various flavors of research back out in the countryside. I haven't been in a decade and I miss it very much. Have you spent time in Bishkek?
192: Heh. There is indeed a connection, in that kymyz is the Kyrygz word for fermented mare's milk, usually spelled kumis in English. The Kyrgyz language is big into vowel harmony, so the visual rhyming of "kymyz" and "Kyrgyz" is not really very interesting--there's only so many combos of vowels a Kyrgyz word can have. In any case, the pseud is just a riff on milk mustache.
It's not that I am against helping some lesbian stay closeted. It's just that uh I guess I wanted instead to build my online identity around uh lightly alcoholic milk that is on your face.
193: Alas, no. When we were getting ready to leave Tbilisi, my better half was in the running for an OSCE position there, but she was not chosen. She did visit back in USSR days, I think. (She made it to 14 of the 15 SSRs, and I believe Turkmen is the one she missed.)
I've only been as close as west-central Mongolia, which it turns out is not very close at all. Just across the Altai, right? Um, no. Asia is big; who knew?
In fact eastern Georgia is actually closer, as the Tupolev flies. Driving, though, means you have to go around the Caspian, so it's a good bit further that way.
196: It's a lovely town, or was 10 years ago. When I first visited in 2003, it was still very Russophone and I had only Kyrgyz. Then more of the old Russians left and lots of the rural population moved in and flipped things completely around. My main research skill, once I'd been in country long enough, was being a doofy white guy speaking mystifyingly competent Kyrgyz, and that went from being completely useless in the city to working okay.
Absolutely living up to the eclectic web magazine label today. Quality content. My 87 year old mother spent some intermittent time in Kyrgistan 10-20 years ago and I can't wait to casually drop into conversation how different it is now.
Eh, if your mom was there 10-20 years ago, chill, then she's roughly as current as I am. Though I guess if she was in a Russophone bubble, you can tell her *from me* that that was increasingly unrepresentative, sure. (Also, what was she doing there? My mom is in her mid-70s and it'd take some real doing to get her to Kyrgyzstan, even intermittently.)
187 threw me because Russian has the animate/inanimate distinction as well-- I remember learning the rule about which form of the accusative to use for people-- and I don't think the two languages differ in this respect? This blog post gives a brief rundown of how it works in Russian: among singular nouns, only masculine nouns reflect the animate/inanimate distinction when you decline them, so that's basically what ttaM describes as four genders in the singular. Disclaimer: the Slavic case system helped to ruin my college GPA and I'm absolutely hopeless with plural nouns. No hope.
"My God! You speak Russian like a Warsaw aristocrat!"
That's absolutely fucking hilarious.
My mother, not a native speaker, learned Russian and made many trips to the USSR starting in the early 70s and is quite fluent, but never picked up the vocabulary changes and imports post-1991, so she sounds like a Soviet time traveler to them now. (Also, despite no Russian ethnic background, somehow when we visited Prague in 2015, Russian tourists addressed her in Russian at least twice.)
201: Thank you! I treasure the moment, I do.
It's also perfect, because the lady I learned Polish from was teaching at the USDA courses in DC when I was there in the mid-1990s. Much earlier in her career (I think she was semi-retired by the time I was learning from her), she had taught US diplomats who were going to be posted to Poland, and indeed taught the professor (and former diplomat) from whom I took Comparative Communist Systems when it was a poli sci course and not, as he later joked, one he sold to the history department. Anyway, she was definitely Warsovian educated bourgeoisie -- what the Germans call Bildungsbürgertum -- so it was an exceptionally accurate description of the accent I apparently have, and I like to think that Pani Krysia would have been pleased.
203: Comparison is running dog thief of glorious socialist joy, comrade. #me-volution
186: how often does the instrumental case get used? Do you have an example? That's just wild, tbh.
200: if I ever knew that, I have forgotten it in the 32 years since my last Russian lesson.
"how often does the instrumental case get used?"
It's similar to the ablative in Latin. If you put something in the instrumental it means by or with that thing (plus appropriate preposition): so if you travel by car or with your mother, you put them in the instrumental.
Learning Latin before I started Russian was surprisingly useful!
Czech instrumental With is in the instrumental, so constantly.
whoops. With me, with them, with {any noun} is usuallly in the instrumental, so constantly.
If there's an interest in the corners of Czech grammar, there's a vanishing verb tense to indicate simultanaeity-- English uses the gerund (Noticing that his hair was on fire, he jumped into the water), but that's overloading a verb form that has other uses. In English, the Czech tense is called the transgressive form of the verb.
Like Russian, perfective/imperfective is usually indicated with a prefix to the verb, and also like Russian, but less prolifically, related verbs share a stem and have different prefixes.
199: after my mom retired from academia she had a series of contract jobs to work with universities and help them, I guess, do some planning/beaurocratization/help them be more smoothly functioning universities. Consultant stuff. That included multiple trips to Kyrgistan but also other places, and I'm pretty sure she did brush up on her Russian for those trips, and never heard a mention of any other tongue being used. I think the Kyrgyz university in particular but also maybe others she worked with were funded by Soros so I could legitimately call her out for being on Soros's payroll, though I'm not sure if that joke would hit.
212: American University of Central Asia, I'm guessing? Cool. Definitely Russophone back then, honestly probably still mostly Russophone, for solid practical reasons. I wonder, actually, how many students they draw from the really-weak-Russian population in the countryside. More than they did 20 years ago, I'm sure, but maybe still not many.
My favorite thing about the Polish instrumental case is that sometimes the forms are declined identically to the nominative. So "jestem samochód" without context seems like (nominative) "I am a car" but in certain contexts might be understood as (instrumental) "I'm traveling by car."
Or no, that particular example is wrong. I'll have to look it up later, it was something funny on that order.
OK right, "jestem samochodem" is the instrumental. So distinguishable from the nominative, but confusing for people who aren't used to Slavic cases. Supposedly it's a handy way to say no when Poles are trying to ply you with alcohol. Yes my job is dull today.
Everything I know about qumys I learned from Gravity's Rainbow.
It ain't much.
I thought nobody actually read Gravity's Rainbow.
You say that, and yet the scene in which qumys is mentioned is part of a broader story about a Soviet initiative in Central Asia having to do with languages and culture. Clearly a foreshadowing of this very subthread.
210: So, it's not just "by means of the car" but "accompanied by my spouse" as well.
There's good Polish vodka if you like vodka (I don't really). The beer brand Żywiec is fun to say and was the last entry in our encyclopedia growing up but is not very interesting as beer. The last time Gravity's Rainbow came in for a drubbing on-blog (because of depicting limes in WWII London?) I feel like it had a half dozen partisans or so.
Is the qumys section the one with the special Central Asian military unit idenitifed by a letter that's impossible to remember because it only exists in some specific Cyrillicization of a Central Asian language?
I need someone to write a summary of the Wikipedia plot summary of Gravity's Rainbow.
It's just another long American novel about a white whale; you've read one, you've read them all.
Supposedly it's a handy way to say no when Poles are trying to ply you with alcohol.
One of my Russian teachers suggested that if you don't want to drink and you're in a group of Russians, point towards your liver and groan and people will nod in understanding.
If you drink enough, your liver gets puffy and you can find it more easily. Which isn't good.
223 -- To summarize the summary of the summary: People are a problem.
there's a vanishing verb tense to indicate simultanaeity-- English uses the gerund (Noticing that his hair was on fire, he jumped into the water),
I don't think that is an example of simultaneity. The most logical reading of that example is that he noticed that his hair was on fire and then as a response he jumped into the water. First one thing happened, then the other thing. What you want is "Jumping into the water, he noticed his hair was on fire". So he's already jumping into the water for some unrelated reason and then mid-jump he feels a burning sensation and thinks to himself "that's fine, I was jumping into the water anyway".
Relevant because Russian:
Here is a story about the divorce proceedings of the founder of the largest online retailer in the US. Main issues: large scale philanthropy, voting rights in stock.
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/amazon-founder-bezos-divorce-final-with-38-billion-settlement-report-idUSKCN1U1016/
Here is a story about the divorce proceedings of the founder of the largest online retailer in Russia. Main issues: Chechen militiamen, shootouts in the centre of Moscow, nine casualties.
https://www.rferl.org/a/bakalchuk-wildberries-attack-shoot-out-wounded-people-kadyrov/33124947.html
Any questions?
||
Anyone - especially, apo- have any guesses about what the breaking story with Mark Robinson might be?
|>
Just going off of the fact that it's hard to top what he's already done and said, and the fact that Donald fucking Trump is treating him as radioactive, people are saying kiddie porn.
229. Appreciating your detailed correction, I thank you for your careful reading. Really a shame that this tense is falling into disuse.
"Activity on adult websites" reads to me like he was a performer. Anyway, it is not clear to me that there is any behavior by a Trumper -- and especially this guy -- that would cause sufficient shame for him to step away. SP has it right in 232. That might do it.
George Santos is the only counter-example example that comes to mind, and it seems to me that was only because he understood he was clearly going to lose.
especially, apo
On first read, I was thinking that BG was invoking apo's expertise in an area other than NC politics.
The Carolina Journal story was written and edited in an unfortunate way. It refers to "sources" right up until we get here:
Also according to the anonymous source, earlier this week leaders in the Trump campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Trump or vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
But "the" anonymous source indicates two things: That the source was referred to earlier in the story, and that there is only one of them. My best guess is that "the" source is a different source from the ones previously cited in the story.
I'm hoping this involves goats. I don't want children to be involved and I do want a good, recent example for " ... but you fuck one goat...."
His campaign consultant, while decrying CNN's story as a hit job, recalls that the allegations are that "he made some extremely racist comments about Martin Luther King, referred to himself as a Black Nazi and used antisemitic language referring to Jews" in an online forum in 2009.
I feel like he's already done those things a lot more recently than 2009?
I thought those were his qualifications.
And everybody already knew he was Black.
Given what just happened with RFK Jr., I'm hoping this isn't another attempt to ratfuck by making sure ballots can't be printed and distributed much before Election Day itself.
244: I assum you are referring to the bear thing. I have to add that RFK is really delusional and credulous because he's convinced that he's going to have a role in the Trump admin where he gets to pick the heads of the NIH and FDA. Tucker Carlsonstarted laughing midway through the interview. I think he couldn't keep up the acting, and the real Tucker broke through for a minute.
Well, I suppose the bear is not what caused him to leave. But, I also was worried about that.
He's referring to how NC courts have used RFK's dropping out to fuck up early voting.
That being NC fucking with election law to help Republicans make the ballot more favorable to them.
So it seems to just be calling himself things like "black Nazi" on a porn forum. And bringing back slavery. Very similar to stuff he's said before. Although I think sayiing hr was Ok with trans porn may be new. The sin from R point of view is that he is losing and theoretically jeopardizing Trump.
The comments... were made under a username that CNN was able to identify as Robinson by matching a litany of biographical details and a shared email address between the two. ... They were made between 2008 and 2012 on "Nude Africa," a pornographic website that includes a message board. ... Robinson listed his full name on his profile for Nude Africa, as well as an email address he used on numerous websites across the internet for decades.
The last sentence there seems the most perverse.
"It takes the man out while leaving the man in!"
What a koan.
I haven't read the whole article so I'll assume that's from something he posted and try to speculate what it might refer to.
I really hope he doesn't have time to drop out.
249: Wishing he could be a peeping Tom again is also new, I think.
Well, this gives the media something to talk about for a day or two.
252: Oh, it's from something he posted, alongside a slur that I thought was generally understood not to be printable at this point? I guess CNN's style guide is lagging a bit.
Andy K who is good at muckraking but quite the asshole posting on the last day he could still withdraw from the ballot.
Nice to see that CNN believed his open political transphobia made his fetishes fair game. (They contrast his comments on trans porn with his general transphobia, and his voyeuristic comments more specifically with his trying to feed the trans bathroom panic.
Oho: this site's discussion board is still around (or archived??) and now that CNN has disclosed his username, other people are digging up all his posts they can, there and elsewhere. In one he describes having sex with his wife's sister in detail. (Not persuasive detail, Penthouse-letter fantasy level, but still.)
@HarrisHQ: "Trump: We have to cherish Mark Robinson. You have to cherish him. He's like a fine wine. He's an outstanding person. I've gotten to know him so well"
Apparently the real value of the CNN article is they posted his username and email so people can go digging in more places for things he posted.
Actual public post by NC governor candidate:
By minisoldr on Saturday, April 19, 2008 - 2:50 am:
Fellas, let your girl think she is in control and you can do what you want.
I've been married 18 years and have been fucking whoever I want when I want including my wife's fine ass sister who does 3-somes with me and another girl we know. They both love that ass to mouth thing and there is nothing like having your balls sucked and asshole licked while deep in some pussy!
Also he hand-crafted custom Nazi uniforms for his action figures. But I figure that's a plus in the Republican Party and not why they're abandoning him.
"I was really pumping that dooky chute good"
Not only is this website "Nude Africa" still up, looking very vintage, its archives are available to subscribers going back to 1998 and it advertises its function to search all posts from a given member.
261 is WHOA and I can't tell if 263 is satire or not.
263: It's not. From another comment in the same vein October 2011.
267 to 266, of course.
Also, posted Sunday 11:24am.
Shouldn't bragging about having threesomes with your wife's sister be squarely in brand MAGA?
Real Republicans insist on actual incest.
He was just trying to covet his neighbor's wife and ass at the same time.
He was just trying to covet his neighbor's wife and ass at the same time.
High-quality comment.
273: Jesus started right next door, so they've got a head start.
NC GOP out with statement giving full-throated support. Calls it all lies.
In political media news, Olivia Nuzzi on leave from NY mag for allegedly having an affair with RFK Jr.
She was repeating a lot of Republican talking points about Biden, wasn't she? Are brain worms an STD?
And Trump speaking to a Jewish organization saying it's their fault if he loses. I think someone broke the Matrix, glitches everywhere.
277: I genuinely can't figure out if this means they knew all along, or just don't care. Don't parties vet candidates anymore?
I hope, if he's not in pain, Carter lives to piss on Trump's grave.
Olivia Nuzzi on leave from NY mag for allegedly having an affair with RFK Jr.
That's kind of hilarious, whether or not it's true. Although I'd forgotten about her beyond being on my personal "do not read if this name is on the byline" list.
279 I'm sure big city party machines vet candidates, but my guess is that mostly they're like ours here which doesn't vet a damn thing. Anyone can run for anything: you file the papers to run for office, and check the box for which party primary you want to compete in. If you win the primary, you're the nominee, and not party functionary can tell you different.
Sure you might have trouble with fundraising, but that's mostly independent of the party: you build and exploit your own network.
"Also he hand-crafted custom Nazi uniforms for his action figures."
I suspect the only problem here is that handmaking little toy clothes is a bit effete.
Good god you weren't joking. 1/6 scale models of SS troops. That's like a foot tall. I was thinking little lead soldiers, like toy soldiers. These things are huge.
Meanwhile in the UK, "prominent black conservative politician admits to collecting little models of the soldiers of a genocidal fascist empire" is viewed as, if anything, a point in his favour. https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1811339260550627795
Cleverly must be such a heavy name to bear.
re:Nuzzi, I don't recall many specifics of her writing just a vague sense of her being a minor league sloppy, gossipy reporter with a bit of a young Maureen Dowd vibe. Did not like her back in 2016. I know she is on the record fangirling Ann Coulter and Bari Weiss.
NC GOP out with statement giving full-throated support.
I know this sounds like hyperbole, but it isn't: with a vanishingly tiny handful of exceptions, North Carolina Republicans are shitty, degenerate people, from the top of the party to the last voter.
283: Our state party convention of activists routinely endorse a candidate for State office, but the money lines up with someone more moderate, and either because of the money or because the voters's policy preferences are more moderate than the activists, the endorsed candidates lose. Now when Warren ran for Senate the first time, her support at the State convention was so high that there was no primary, but I don't get the exact procedures.
An ally of Nuzzi, or Nuzzi herself, is telling people that the RFK relationship was just sending messages, not physical but "emotional and digital in nature". Phrasing, people!
If covid can spread through 5G so can brainworms.
286: he was a media sales guy at the company I work for during my first stint there in 2005-2007. I don't remember him but I do remember that team being a band of degenerate rogues who would do anything for money and then do anything with it.
It wasn't in the least surprising when this happened (at a reception with copious free drinks): https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/24/james-cleverly-facing-calls-to-resign-after-joke-about-date-drug
His email was in an Ashley Madison leak -- the adultery website.
288: The Teamsters have a long tradition of disloyalty to labor politics. They are sitting this one out, but in the past they have endorsed Nixon, Reagan (twice) and GHW Bush. They also issued no endorsement in 1996. Local Teamsters entities in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and elsewhere have endorsed Harris. I don't think any of them have broken with the overall union to endorse Trump.
And hey, Teamsters President Sean O'Brien addressed the Republican National Convention -- so the non-endorsement is arguably a win for the Dems (as it arguably was in 1996).
It certainly matters. There are a lot of Teamsters, and a lot of union members listen to the voice of their union. But the Teamsters have always been fascist-curious.
290 Our party rules preclude endorsements in primary races. Saves a lot of heartache and lets the voters make the call. As individuals, we can decide to support one or another -- this cycle, I donated (modestly) and talked up quite a bit a candidate in the state senate district just north of mine, but she ended up winning the primary handily, much to the surprise of party establishment folks.
Are they as mobbed up as the stereotype?
298: Supposedly that's been cleaned up, but you fuck one goat ...
Genital swabs or it happened.
My genitals are under Giants stadium.
Can I just make this today's post?
As if I didn't have enough weighing on me already.
303: it's not on the front page. It would be easier to access if you put something new up.
AIMHMHB, The Irishman is actually worth all the three point whatever hours it asks of you. Respect Marty and he respects your time.
291. Digital and manual have become antonyms....