I spent a fair bit of time in early October talking to unlikely D voters.
That is, people who if they voted, were unlikely to vote D.
Are you planning on becoming invested in voter suppression?
I am really hoping for some blog chattiness to help the hours pass today.
Before going too far down that trail (about how the Dems will behave following partisan realignment and educational sorting) keep in mind that this phenomenon is not unique to the US but widespread throughout the developed world.
Piketty turned to this following his famous book.
Long working paper documenting this here: http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Piketty2018.pdf
abstract of published article here:
https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/137/1/1/6383014
ChatGPT here with some suggestions:
Sure! If you're looking for some fun and light conversation topics for a blog about time-wasting, here are a few ideas:
The Art of Procrastination: Explore different ways people procrastinate and share funny anecdotes or tips for how to make the most of "wasted" time.
Binge-Worthy Shows: Create a list of shows that are perfect for when you want to kick back and do absolutely nothing.
Mindless Apps and Games: Review some mobile games or apps that are perfect for a quick distraction when you need a break.
The Joy of Doing Nothing: Write about the benefits of taking time to relax and how it can actually boost productivity in the long run.
Social Media Scrolling: Discuss the phenomenon of getting lost in social media feeds and share funny memes or trends you've stumbled upon.
Books You Can Read in One Sitting: Recommend quick reads that are perfect for when you have a few hours to kill.
Creative Ways to Waste Time: Share quirky or unusual activities people can engage in when they just want to zone out--like doodling, coloring, or building with LEGO.
Time-Wasting Conspiracy Theories: Dive into some of the wildest conspiracy theories people get lost in online, and why they capture our attention.
ChatGPT must be really fun at a party.
Sure! Here are some fun conversation starters you can use at a party:
Food & Drinks: "What's the best dish or drink you've tried so far? I'm looking for recommendations!"
Music: "What song always gets you on the dance floor?"
Travel: "If you could hop on a plane right now, where would you go?"
Movies/TV: "Seen any good shows or movies lately? I need something new to binge!"
Hobbies: "What's a hobby you're really passionate about?"
Fun Facts: "What's a random fun fact you love to share?"
I don't understand how GOTV and voter suppression are opposites. You could do both, or just one, or neither. I don't see the Democrats doing much different in the future while Republicans continue to do voter suppression and maybe re-emphasize GOTV, or at least get more competent operations than whatever it is they're doing this election assuming the reports about a terrible ground game are accurate.
I guess it's true that Democrats could benefit from voter suppression of their opponents votes, but that's always true in any election in the sense that if fewer votes come in for your opponent, you do better. But the Democrats haven't engaged in widespread voter suppression, don't have a strong ideological preference for restricting the vote, and aren't changing in that direction.
But if you were basically a Republican who might be voting Democratic now, I could see how you might think that the Democrats will adopt Republican strategies.
I wonder what the Republican capacity for GOTV is now. The strongest Republican demographic groups don't seem to be those that are big on volunteer work.
But high on that sweet, sweet grifting energy.
Stimulants, steroids, and squirrels.
To be a fly hovering around the ex president when musk shows him the closing argument his top memegeneers came up with.
Do I even want to know what this squirrel thing is?
Republicans are the party of lazy grifters, they're not going to do GOTV!
My suggestion for voter suppression is to limit the number of voting locations based on population. As in: on a county basis, there be may no more than 1 (one) voting location per 10,000* inhabitants. So all those Red voting rural residents in big, sparsely populated counties will have to put up with inconvenience and long drives just to vote in person. It would discourage some from voting and annoy the rest, plus build support for vote by mail and other improvements.
* 10,000 might not be the right number, perhaps 5,000 would work better
MAGA has squirrels, just not the way we understand them.
20: There are plenty of counties without 5,000 people.
Tim Walz went to high school in one.
20, 22: Along those lines, you could even announce the reduction in voting locations (1 per 5,000 voters with one per county minimum) as a cost saving measure -- fewer poll workers and sites, less equipment, etc. I wouldn't want to go that way, but that's a plausible path forward that could read as non-partisan, while quietly discouraging rural not mail-in voting.
If you want a steady stream of distraction, you can try this light fare via Firefox reader:
https://www.curbed.com/article/trumps-childhood-home-feral-cats-abandoned-neighbors.html
News outlets jockeyed (unsuccessfully) to find the buyer behind "Trump Birth House LLC." Michael X. Tang, a lawyer in Flushing who specializes in overseas real-estate investments for mainland Chinese buyers, facilitated some of the paperwork, but Tang wouldn't talk. The next summer, it became an Airbnb at $725 a night. A wave of enterprising features writers booked rooms to write ruminative "In Search of Trump" pieces while staying as guests in the house. In less than a week, the city issued a partial vacate order for the cellar, which had been illegally converted into an apartment. In 2019, it was put up for sale again with a can-you-guess-the-price gimmick, drawing no takers. The next year, a GoFundMe attempted to raise $3 million to purchase and donate the house to Trump as a monument to his presidency. It raised less than $8,000.
And now? "Where to begin?" said Ayala-Braun, letting out an exasperated sigh and rattling off a list of complaints as she scrolled through her phone pictures. "There was the pipe that burst, which flooded our basement and other neighbors." Because the houses share some old-fashioned circuitry, a problem at 85-15 knocked out her power, and thus her and a number of neighbors' air-conditioning, for a week one summer. "We were dying," she said.
Below is a map of counties with fewer than 5000/10,000 residents. Given my expectations about voting preferences in those locations, I would like to revise my previous proposal and make it "0 (zero) voting locations in counties with fewer than 5000/10,000 residents (or maybe even make it registered voters). Voters in those counties will have to go to the county seat in the neighboring county to vote" It's a disgraceful idea but given what the republicans are doing to suppress votes (e.g., one absentee drop box for millions of voters in Harris County, Texas), fuck 'em.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1fq9c4d/us_counties_with_fewer_than_10000_people/#lightbox
That positing is too-clever-by-half nonsense, apart from the educational polarization bit. People looking for ways to feel aloof by inventing Democrats whose hypothetical vote-suppression is as bad as the GOP's actual.
My home county is completely surrounded by counties with less than 10,000 people while it is a sophisticated place with just over 10,000.
Though that will likely not be the case after the next census.
Texas has 23 counties with fewer than 2,000 people each.
A bunch of probably-Democratic-aligned outfits over the years have been dedicated to voter registration and mobilization in nominally nonpartisan ways. "Rock the Vote" being one of the older examples I can think of.
I expect those to get less popular and get less of a kick into existence from lefty orgs as it has become clear that the marginal non-voter is not generally D-leaning.
That's not "voter suppression" but giving up on broad-base voter mobilization in favor of targeted mobilization could easily be a thing.
In re: GOTV vs. voter suppression, I suppose one of the things it depends on is the answer to questions like this.
One of my students wore her "Voting is sexy" shirt to the polls, and someone there got confrontational with her about whether or not it was a partisan shirt, and how she wasn't allowed to wear it within 100 yards of the polling place. (My student wasn't sure whether the person was a poll worker or not, but my guess is not.)
Probably an asexual for Harris voter.
I just voted. I'm feeling very hopeful! I put a bottle of bubbly in the fridge, although I probably won't get to open it for a few days because Pennsylvanians count so slow. (I'm not interested in hearing how delusional I am.) I'm looking forward to being as angry at Harris as I was at Obama.
I like having my dreams crushed, so I'm continuing to hold out hope that the poll interpretation that says most pollsters have been weighing things too heavily towards Trump voters - either an overcorrection from previous elections, or a decision based on thinking close to 50-50 sounds "right", so something must be wrong if that's not the end result - turns out to be true.
But what would be considered decisive in this era? Something like the Obama 2012 margin (both popular* and electoral college)? No popular vote win has been above 53% since 1988, though Clinton got a lot higher EV percentages than I'd remembered given he never got 50% popular.
*I hadn't noticed until now that Biden 2020 had a greater share of the popular vote than Obama 2012.
36: Meanwhile here in Ohio our Secretary of State has decided that Maga hats and other such clothing are permitted at the polls.
Guidance issued by the state this week says: "Slogans that can be associated with a political party, candidate or ballot question or issue, but do not display the name of the political party, candidate, or ballot question or issue are not prohibited."
Much as I hate Frank LaRose, the Ohio Secretary of State, I think this might be a good decision. My sense is that if the goal is to avoid conflict, making people take off their Maga hats (and other such) is most likely to be a source of conflict.
40: Meant to link to the news article -- https://www.wcpo.com/news/state/state-ohio/ohio-secretary-of-state-maga-hats-not-going-back-shirts-allowed-at-polls
38: put a bottle of bubbly in the fridge
Looking for and not finding a picture I saw on some social media of a champagne bottle with a post-it saying "Harris" next to a "Trump" post-it on a bottle of Drano.
42: Back in 2016 I was at a watch party optimistically named "Champagne or Cyanide." It did not feel as funny as the evening progressed.
Just able to park at the rally, so I'm not sure we'll get out of Kennywood.
There's still a steady stream of cars arriving.
An old guy took a huge leak in the middle of the parking lot just as the cars started coming again.
He was standing in the dark and no one knew what he was doing and then "Showtime!"
With a Pomeranian that I'm pretty sure isn't supposed to be here.
How Bismarck ever got one to hold a musket, I'll never know.
The one for Harris. What kind of an asshole goes to the other one?
I've already missed Eugene DePascalli.
I just drove through our hillside East Bay neighborhood to pick up Elke from school and on one particularly forbidding corner lot, seven or eight (?) signs had appeared that said "Common Sense DEMOCRATS for TRUMP," each one with an attached "PRIVATE PROPERTY: KEEP OUT" mini-sign. I'm wondering if the property owner had been trying to give them away for months, didn't find any takers, and finally decided to stick them all up in one yard so as to seem maximally unhinged.
We all assume he voted a straight Republican ticket, right?
Maybe he ordered them directly and the smallest package was ten?
Eugene DePasquale and my dad played basketball together at the Y! (And went to the same college but like 25 years apart.)
By contrast, Beto used to play pickup Ultimate Frisbee with my brother.
If only I'd left hundreds of flyers with his name on porches.
Anyway, it doesn't look like those signs are the result of any particular initiative, but my search for more information returned this result:
The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, "This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country."
Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, "I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much." The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.
Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, "i really am going to have a hard time doing this" but then offered that Republicans "are morally right as in values, ... going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, ... going to create jobs."
I've had to do this "put yourself in the mind of a Trump voter" several times with Elke and I find it a mildly interesting exercise. (In one case, the persona was a Tibetan immigrant; in another case, the father of her other friend who was in a hardcore band and works as a chef.) But I did end up saying something about how this isn't ever 100% rational.
Very on brand for the Republicans to rule out even pretending to think there could be any good in voting for the devilcrats, while the Democrat "struggling" is someone clearly trying to come up with a charitable view and conceding too much on basically everything in the quoted sentence.
I'm hoping that link also has juicy quotes about, I don't know, "rethuglicans" wanting to shit all over the country while calling it fertilizer for a renewed America.
From Ace's homework:
Mexico is a newly industrialized country, therefore when compared to other Latin American countries, Mexicans enjoy:
a. Longer access to education
b. A higher standard of living
c. A traditional economy
d. The right to vote in elections.
I assume the answer is B. But the question is very weird. The first clause doesn't say that the other countries aren't industrialized yet - what if they industrialized earlier? or at different times? or simultaneously?
And also, is the whole implied claim even true? Mexico is newly industrialized? Compared to when?
Also I preserved the punctuation of the sentence.
MSNBC is carrying Kamala's Pittsburgh rally live. I keep looking for Moby in the crowd shots, them I remember that I never have no idea what he looks like. Any, there are a lot of middle aged white guys tehre.
Maybe the guy in the " ,-la " t shirt?
I see now that "newly industrialized country" is a specific term, and Mexico is one, whereas say Brazil is not. Ok then.
66: and we are shamefully not there...
64: "Newly Industrialized Countries" or "NICs" was a new concept in macroeconomics when I was in college in the 1980's. Mexico was in the group then, so I think by now it's more of an "Industrialized a while ago, but not as long ago as some other countries Country."
Pomeranians are indeed useless with a musket. Hence the grenade-collars.
"put yourself in the mind of a Trump voter"
Give me like twenty minutes for the pills to kick in, then punch me hard in the temple.
I'm still trying to get out. I feel we disrespected Katy Perry by sprinting out as soon as Harris left.
I LOVE YOU UNCONDITIONALLY.
76: The event proceeded normally without incident.
This is such a depressing summary, leaving much unsaid. Good for Bosnia for hosting, though. (That's really not such a low bar.)
I thought this, from Experimental History, was some combination of interesting and dispiriting. It was also interesting to take the quiz myself.
https://www.experimental-history.com/p/ideological-turing-test
Basically, of the people who responded, the Ds and the Rs were equally good (bad) at pretending to be each other and at identifying who was pretending and who was for real.
I don't know quite what else to think of it at the moment, but maybe it'll be distracting for a bit.
That was more or less in response to 61, I guess.
I have never seen so many buses in my life. Still took over two hours to get home.
That was the first time I've seen a major presidential candidate. Or a sitting vice president.
So anyway, Tuesday's my day off, and I expect yinz to make it a good one for me. Cool? Cool.
I have never seen so many buses in my life.
Must be a lot of antifa.
Ugandan lawyer sues DR Congo govt over Makala Prison atrocities
Kalali contends that the respondent's alleged acts and omissions, committed through various state organs and agencies, fall within the jurisdiction of the East African Court of Justice for interpretation and determination of compliance with the EAC Treaty, to which the Democratic Republic of Congo is a party as a Member State of the East African Community.
"The respondent's failure to provide security for female inmates during the September 1-2, 2024, prison break, resulting in sexual violence, constitutes a dereliction of duty. This violates the EAC Treaty and the African Charter on Human and People's Rights, which protects human dignity and life," reads in part the court documents.
It adds that: "... the use of live ammunition by DRC security officials, causing loss of life among unarmed inmates, breaches Articles 7(2), 6(d), and 5(3)(f) of the EAC Treaty, infringing upon the right to life and human rights."
Mpox cases in Congo may be stabilizing. Experts say more vaccines are needed to stamp out virus
In recent weeks, Congo has reported about 200 to 300 lab-confirmed mpox cases every week, according to WHO. That's down from nearly 400 cases a week in July. The decline is also apparent in Kamituga, the mining city in the eastern part of Congo where the new, more infectious variant of mpox first emerged.
While doctors are encouraged by the drop in infections in some parts of Congo, it's still not clear what kinds of physical contact is driving the outbreak. Health experts are also frustrated by the low number of vaccine doses the central African nation has received -- 265,000 -- and say that delivering the vaccine to where it's needed in the sprawling country is proving difficult. WHO estimates 50,000 people have been immunized in Congo, which has a population of 110 million.
The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated Congo needs at least 3 million mpox vaccines to stop the virus, and another 7 million for the rest of Africa. So far, WHO and partners have allocated 900,000 vaccines to nine African countries affected by mpox and expect 6 million vaccines to be available by the end of this year.
Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, an infectious diseases expert at South Africa's University of KwaZulu-Natal, said mpox outbreaks typically peak and disappear quickly because of how the virus spreads. This time, however, he said there are two complicating factors: the virus' transmission via sex and the continued spillover from infected animals. "We're in new territory with mpox this time,"
Seismic change in Botswana as party that ruled for 58 years loses power
Masisi conceded defeat even before final results were announced, with his Botswana Democratic Party trailing in fourth place in the parliamentary elections in what appeared to be a humbling rejection by voters and a landslide victory for the main opposition party.Americans may remember Botswana from 2018, when your ambassador was summoned to clarify whether it was a "shithole country".
[...]
Hours later, Chief Justice Terence Rannowane announced that the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change party had won a majority of seats in the election, making its candidate, Boko, the next president of the southern African country
[...]
"I concede the election," Masisi said in an early-morning press conference two days after the vote. "I am proud of our democratic processes. Although I wanted a second term, I will respectfully step aside and participate in a smooth transition process." "I look forward to attending the coming inauguration and cheering on my successor. He will enjoy my support."
61 was extremely interesting - thank you! But I wonder if it's the best test of understanding because the Writers' job was "write something that will persuade both Republicans and Democrats that you are a Democrat" and the Readers knew this. So you might end up with a very anodyne piece that really just says "I am a Democrat saying typical Democrat things".
I think a more devious, and therefore better, test would be to say: "write something that will persuade Republicans - but not Democrats - that you are a Democrat" and set up the rewards scheme accordingly. Now, if both sides truly understand each other, that'll be impossible. But I suspect that in fact you might get a loy of very interesting results as each side tries to guess the other side's shibboleths.
For example, if the two sides really don't understand each other, you might get a Democrat writing "I'm voting Trump because he will protect America from the daemonic forces which lurk in the warp, and will fight to preserve the purity of our Anglo-Saxon bloodlines" and all the other Democrats going "yes, definitely that man is a Republican, that's how they all think" while all the Republicans go "no, clearly a fake, we're in it because we want tariffs and more power devolved to state governments".
You could even have half the sample doing the reverse: "write something that will persuade Democrats, but not Republicans, that you are a Democrat".
Even if you don't run the actual experiment it's interesting to consider how you personally would answer each prompt.
https://acleddata.com/2024/10/28/expert-comment-evidence-suggests-low-risk-of-organized-political-violence-ahead-of-us-election/
Our data show that political violence in the run-up to the 2024 elections is a fraction of what we saw in 2020. The indicators for organized political violence, measured by the participation of extremist groups in demonstrations and political violence, are lower this year than popular narratives surrounding the election might suggest.
[...]
our data do not show the kinds of pre-conditions of already-simmering extremist activity that might lead to a sudden spike in organized political violence. Overall extremist mobilization is barely half as prevalent in 2024 compared to the same period in 2020. However, this year we have seen twice as much mobilization by a subsection of these extremist groups, namely openly white supremacist and neo-Nazi organizations
61 was extremely interesting
61 *was* extremely interesting, but I was actually replying to 78.
91: The longer ACLED piece has much of interest.
Today's crazy poll - Harris 28 points ahead in New Hampshire.https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Pres/Graphs/new-hampshire.html
||
Bleg, (as used to be said), a couple of months ago a major scholarly study was published establishing that the necessary condition of intent in re genocide was in fact present for the Holdomor. Does anyone else recall this? Any links?
|>
91 matched my experience! The air has not been tangibly electric with the threat of violence like it was in 2020. No Trump trains. I remember pulling over and getting my phone out when a Trump Train passed a black jogger, It just felt like danger could be imminent.
89/90- Ajay did you try it? I did much worse than I thought I would. 7/10 the first time, and then 6/10 the second even though I had a better idea of what to expect. (They show the actual political affiliations with brief blurbs after you complete it.)
I started thinking about the kinds of gaming that were probably happening for both readers and writers but then I got too stressed out thinking about the whole thing and switched to an illustration project instead. I'll probably revisit the issue later.
There's some violence around. NYS Department of Environmental Conservation has gotten a whole lot of bomb threats, and threats of violence against particular employees, over that stupid squirrel. No actual injuries I've heard of, but people are very nervous and upset.
97: I did! And I was terrible at it! Specifically I was far too ready to believe real entries were fakes, because they seemed so ludicrous. There was one "why I am a Republican" that finished "Merica!" but apparently it was real.
re: 99
Me too. I got 2 out of 10, for exactly the same reason. Plus there were a load of intrusive grammatical errors that kept putting me off, as I kept thinking they'd been added deliberately to throw me off in some way.
Direct link to the thing.
https://ituringtest.com/
I got 7/10 right. I got things wrong essentially by overestimating the basic literacy of Americans.
Everyone put on all your lucky clothes.
I got 5/10. Felt like I was just guessing, they all seemed reasonable enough.
I did notice that they collect a bit of your information, including country, before they display your results, so I look forward to the follow up finding "85% of non-Americans cannot believe Americans are actually like that in reality".
Facebook thinks I'm an Ohio voter, which is so embarrassing.
We all know that in reality Moby is The Ohio voter.
there were a load of intrusive grammatical errors that kept putting me off, as I kept thinking they'd been added deliberately to throw me off in some way.
Same - I assumed that those were a sign of a Republican writer thinking all Democrats were illiterate morons (or vice versa) and so deliberately introducing errors into their "why I am a Democrat" piece, for verisimilitude's sake.
94: Today's crazy poll - Harris 28 points ahead in New Hampshire
Looking at the internals of that poll and it is a great illustration of some issues in poll weighting and interpretation.
Any way you slice it, it is a good result for Harris but:
1) Poll is D+ 28.4% but for 2020 vote it is D+23.7 while the actual result was D+7.4. So a straight 2020 vote recall adjustment would be to reduce it to D+12.1%. Which would still be good for Harris>
2) However, the recall vote from 2022 from the governor race was R+15.0 while the actual result was R+15.5%. So pretty close on that one. So there may be some winners bias in recall which would indicate that a full 2020 recall adjestment waould be too much.
3) There are other indications that the poll has a non-representative sample. For instance has Biden at +9 in job performance which is wrong. However, the Party ID is pretty normal and not D heavy.
So bottom line, probably indicates Harris by double digits but nowhere near 28%. But demonstrates how pollster choices can introduce big swings.
I'm canvassing about six blocks from where I started on election day in 2020.
101, 108 etc: I try not to talk shit about entire countries, but this particular country has seen a 25-year-long war between guns and schools in which guns are clearly winning. Basic literacy (and numeracy, and knowledge) has been crashing hard.
I admit I'm feeling less grim than I have over the past few weeks. It's a pleasant sensation.
Does anyone here wait until election day? Have we all uniformly voted already?
It seems dumb to start up yet another election thread.
I was waiting to see how this squirrel thing played out.
I try not to talk shit about entire countries, but America is exceptional.
My wife specifically waited until today (even though she received a mail ballot) because she wanted to help reduce the Red Mirage given how PA cannot count mail-in votes early (although they got to them much faster in 2022 than 2020--reduced volume may have been a factor, however). As an election worker (not this year--boo!) I pointed out it makes a small amount of extra work for the poll workers* in that they have to spoil your ballot and make you sign a declaration (but much less extra work than a provisional ballot). The PA hopium is that per some campaign folks we talked to is that there were a number of Dems doing that. Wwhich along with Trump being more encouraging about mail/early voting this year is hopefully why mail-in margins in PA are not as lopsided along partisan lines. I had actually noticed that in my precinct during 2022 and 2023. so a trend even before this year.
After she votes we are going on a moderately long hike to remove me from the competing rivers of doom and hope on my devices.
*I may have mentioned here before, but at HS talk for the LWV, my co-presenter and I talked about being poll workers and encouraged the students to do the same. Received with titters; teacher revealed the kids were laughing about it being pole workers.
So, Grave of the Fireflies is pretty grim.
It seems dumb to start up yet another election thread.
There's still Chad and Georgia to go this year, both of which are legitimately fairly interesting and set to be tense.
And Gh[a]na.
And I for one will be up late watching the exit polls come in for the Maharashtra Regional Assembly.
Both hopium and the pole workers bit are cute.
I voted! Voter #180 out of 700-some in my precinct at 9:20 a.m. It was my first time in this precinct, and my first time using a paper ballot that I then scanned myself. No line.
Family voting in West Chester reported a long line at 7 a.m. when the polls first opened.
My SIL in NY was surprised that we waited until Election Day to vote, until I explained that PA isn't allowed to count the early votes early (or even open the envelopes to prepare them for scanning, sigh) and I want my vote counted IMMEDIATELY when the polls close tonight.
They're claiming that PA results will take 1-2 days this year instead of the 4 days that it took in 2020. I'm optimistic that that will be the case, if only because more people are voting in-person than the pandemic year.
The PA hopium is that per some campaign folks we talked to is that there were a number of Dems doing that.
I can personally attest to at least 6 PA voters who did exactly that.
Setting up my new site with Ghost. Nervous energy redirection.
Let's get started!
Welcome! It's time to set up Fuck the Fucking New York Times.
I voted early, because it's easier to go to Town Hall than my polling place which is at a school gym. The whole town goes there, and the parking is annoying. There was one office that wasn't super obvious, the Register of Deeds. Otherwise, it was just the ballot questions. Those will take a while to count if they're close.
123: wait, really? It's finally happening?
Well, we'll see if i add any content....
Yeah, I voted early because the only early polling place for the whole county happens to be twice as close to my house as my normal voting place (one of thirty for the county). .4 miles instead of .8 miles. Also the early polling place is near the delicious bakery so we went and got delicious baked goods afterwards.
Also when you earlier referred to it as FTFNYT, I had assumed it hewed more closely to FTFY.
Also I am still getting a wild number of Dan Osborn texts.
We used to have a voting place that was like one block away, very grumpy that they moved out into what feels to me like the suburbs. Though it's only barely the suburbs, with the right route it's a pleasant walk for all but the last block.
I walked three blocks to my polling place. I'm trying to think, and I don't think in five addresses in PA in my adult life I've ever had to drive to the polls. Unless I just wanted to use my car to go onto other errands after voting. I love living in streetcar suburbs. And Chris
Not sure how my brother-in-law's name ended up in that post.
I mean the scales are different here. It's only a mile from the courthouse square to this voting place, it's just that it's just past the transition where it goes from feeling like a town to feeling like the burbs. Like you have to walk through the parking lot to get into the school, whereas the old place a block away the church is next to the sidewalk and the parking lot is *behind* the Church, like God intended.
I voted today and not early or mail-in. The location is very convenient to me - much more than the early voting location - though I could have done mail-in. But I enjoy the ritual.
I always feel torn when I do it, but I'm exercising blue-state privilege and not voting this year, as I did for Obama's second term (over the extrajudicial execution of al-Awlaki). It's just so many dead babies, and so little care for non-white lives. In a solidly blue state, my vote feels like more of an endorsement than a determinant, so I'm relieved not to have to check the box.
Are you voting down ballot? Or skipping the whole thing?
I admit I'm feeling less grim than I have over the past few weeks. It's a pleasant sensation.
Over the past couple of weeks I've gone from feeling like the odds were slightly against us, to feeling like the odds are slightly in our favor. It's a very nice direction for the trend, but this morning I'm reminding myself that I think the fundamental odds are still fairly close (I recently read a post in which the author gave a long list of reasons why they were feeling optimistic and then ended up at 64%/36%; that's fairly close to my thinking).
137 though I want Harris to win and Trump must lose, I did the the same for the same reasons. If my vote is needed in NY we got much bigger troubles.
137: You don't have any local elections? If you vote for Dow ballot races (even minor ones) and leave the Presidential line blank, woulfdn't that make more of a statement?
Until I get, the domain name, a link to the About page, where I out myself. Since retirement, I no long care about the pseud stuff, but kept it for continuity's sake.
https://fuck-the-fucking-new-york-times.ghost.io/about/
(I did not realize it was all set up around "subscribe" stuff, but it appears stuff is visible without that.)
I always feel torn when I do it, but I'm exercising blue-state privilege and not voting this year, as I did for Obama's second term (over the extrajudicial execution of al-Awlaki). It's just so many dead babies, and so little care for non-white lives. In a solidly blue state, my vote feels like more of an endorsement than a determinant, so I'm relieved not to have to check the box.
You have good reason to do that. Not trying to convince you personally, but that made me think of this post that I read recently.
Around this time in 2016, I had a number of tense conversation with friends and family members who thought Hillary Clinton was destined to defeat Donald Trump. Some of them lived in my home state of California, where most people understand that their votes for president are symbolic. A few lived in swing or swing-ish states. But they all viewed their options through the lens of Hillary Clinton's inevitability. Electoral college or no, she couldn't lose--why not do something expressive or emotionally satisfying, abstracted from the binary choice on offer? Why not cast a harmless protest vote?
In each of these conversations, I made the same basic point. Most of these people weren't particularly fond of Clinton, and they all thought they knew her pretty well. There was little to be gained from trying to convince them that their impressions were wrong, or overheated, or that they'd been lied to.
I tried instead to persuade them of the symbolic importance of Donald Trump's margin of defeat.
Trump was a fascist even then, and I stressed (because I believed it) that a country that just barely beats a fascist will remain on the brink of fascism, while a country that resoundingly defeats a fascist might stave off another stare-down with the abyss for years or decades.
skipping the whole thing
I'm skipping the whole thing. My congressional district has a whole lotta Jews--50% of some of these towns, Israel flags and "We stand with Israel" signs all over the place--and they don't need my vote. Outside of that, it's things like water commissioner and various judgeships that are a completely foregone conclusion here.
140: not even for local elections? Were you NYC? We need more House seats in other parts of NYC?
the symbolic importance of Donald Trump's margin of defeat
Yeah, this was my wife's argument to me, and it has merit.
144: I actually voted in my primary this year. There was only one competitive race: Governor's council. But I care about preventig anti choice judges and appointing judges who understand substance use treatment, so I voted.
God I wish Allred could take down Cruz so bad. I would be floating in the ether if we manage that.
I'm kinda shocked that turnout seems to be up from 2020. I really thought enthusiasm was down on both sides from 2020.
149: Older women are pissed about abortion.
And January 6th hadn't happened yet last time. I think that was a new level of violent lawlessness that intensified some Trump opposition.
A big part of my motivation to vote has often been what I suppose you could call the "and what did *you* do in the Great War, daddy?" factor.
Even though I know perfectly well that my single vote will never make a difference, I still don't want to have to say "ah yes I remember when we got rid of the most incompetent and criminal government since 1945. Well, I say 'we'. I didn't actually vote because I was still grumpy over some issue now lost in the mists of time."
148- I hate the Montana congressional races so much. It's embarrassing as well as critically harmful. Every time the R candidates get redder and more cartoonishly evil and every time people vote for them anyway.
Also the state government but I'm more resigned to that at this point. The shame is less public.
My polling place was much more crowded than I have seen before, even more than 2020.
With all due respect, I don't know that "the genocidal destruction of Gaza" is going to be lost in the mists of time. (Some-- many? all?-- of the political motivations of the 1920s, on the other hand...)
Oh wow, I guess it really is democrats sending the texts then.
I'm voting for Harris in California because, among a thousand other reasons, I want it to be really fucking clear that I don't consent to putting Netanyahu's bff back in power and I'm not going to indulge in fantasies of how Trump's mendacity, treachery, lack of appetite for armed conflict and demonstrated willingness to burn Israel for no particular reason are actual virtues that we can count on to save lives. Also, fucking Ukraine.
Not voting is acquiescing to the worst possible outcome.
In a non-swing state its fine. Good on you, ogged.
I still feel deeply grieved over having to vote for (campaign for!) Hillary Clinton despite her Iraq war vote. I loathe major chunks of Harris's immigration policy. And I'm heartsick over the horrific human cost of the US foreign policy machine under both parties.
I don't blame people who live in completely safe states if they opt not to vote on the presidential ticket, although everyone i know personally lives somewhere where there are down ballot races that still do matter.
What I can't wrap my mind around are the people living in consequential districts who are so angry at the Democrats' foreign policy positions that they are going to effectively vote for Trump. There is no universe in which putting that administration in charge of foreign policy will lead to less death and misery
I hope that Trump not being able to fill his rallies while turnout may be up is a good sign, but it could also be a sign that he's a true media candidate whose support doesn't rely on a whole lot of in-person campaigning.
It really is hard to compare mail and eday poll crowds from 2020.. Covid. different campaign and voter strategies. etc. For instance Dems winning Eday turnout in Clark (Las Vegas) which they have historically not done, but Rs won early unlike historicall.
Even Fox seems to concede that Trump is a better candidate when he's not actually appearing live but instead is packaged with soundbites a whole lot of surrounding BS about the bad things that supposedly exist and supposedly Trump will stop. (Plus a few bad things that are actually real.)
I've wondered about 162 recently too.
161.1 Absolutely agree. Biden, and certainly Harris, are *much* better on Middle East (including Gaza!) policy than Clinton. What's happening is bad, but the role of the adminstration in it is very small and mostly neutral to positive (though they've certainly done some things I disagree with).
Just like 2020, I have knocked on a door and been told to stay back because they have covid.
162: I think it may be a minor signal, but I think he has turned them into regular voters (if he is on the ballot). As I wrote on Bluesky:
"I fear many will reflexively vote out of a grim sense of duty to quench any spark of hope or joy that may lodge in the breasts of those they do not perceive as being of their clan."
So it's grim duty vs. a joyous "Fuck you!" So maybe helps on the margins.
166: I think we shouldn't be selling them so many arms, because I think it's in violation of the Leahy law.
I agree with 169.1, I just disagree about how big an impact it makes. A relatively small portion of it is in violation of the Leahy law, which requires a specific unit-by-unit assessment and likely only applies to a relatively small number of units. (Not that other units aren't doing bad things too, just that the law is only applied to particularly egregious specific units.)
I've been (naively) assuming that we will curtail arms sales significantly once the dust settles on the election. How naive am I being? It certainly helps with the cognitive dissonance.
Also isn't it wild that time continues to tick by at a steady pace, regardless of my mood?
Arms gifts, maybe, I hope so. Arms sales, almost certainly not.
140 LI, I'd moved out of NYC to my folks' place there about 6 months before moving overseas about 10 years ago so I'm registered there. There's a congressional seat that's important so I voted down ballot.
Because there's no difference between defensive weapons and aggressive weapons and we're not willing to let Israel be demolished?
158 that has merit too but I couldn't bring myself to do it even though I donated to her campaign two days after Biden stepped down. Guess I was just grumpy.
Apparently, you can still get sry cleaning left at your front door like it's 1987.
What's happening is bad, but the role of the adminstration in it is very small and mostly neutral to positive
This is...not in the least bit true.
Now I'm off to watch the second movie of the night, thematically appropriate. I just watched A Face in the Crowd which is tremendous and now about to start All the King's Men(1949)
I had planned to vote today, my polling place is literally just a block away, but on Saturday I suggested we go for a bike ride just to get some fresh air and Cassandane said that if we make it to a certain rec center then she'll vote then, and we did, and rather than just stand around outside I voted too. If I had put it off I might have done a bit more research first about certain candidates, but I'm happy with how I voted on the ranked choice voting ballot initiative, and that seemed more important.
151
And January 6th hadn't happened yet last time. I think that was a new level of violent lawlessness that intensified some Trump opposition.
Agreed. I canvassed in PA on Sunday, another last-minute decision. It's the first time I've canvassed since 2008, and I had to go a lot farther to do it this time. When trying to describe why, Jan. 6 was one of the two big reasons. Abortion was the other one.
The guys with the "gay Jews for arms embargo" sign were 100% for Harris.
I find it hard to believe there are people here that are not going to vote. I think it is important to run up the popular vote just to demonstrate how terrible the electoral college is and provide more incentive to do something about it.
Maybe is safe state voters stay home in large enough numbers, and swing state voters turn out for Harris, she can win the electoral college without winning a plurality. A Democrat winning without getting the most votes is probably the shortest path towards eliminating the Electoral College.
Re: the Ideological Turing Test thing, I admit I haven't evaluated the statements yet but I feel like this kind of thing is one of those things polls would be bad at measuring. Like, "X doesn't believe in democracy" seems to me like a reasonable shorthand for any of the following:
1. X is an 17th-century aristocrat for whom democracy would both upset the established order and personally ruin them.
2. X likes the idea of democracy in some sense, but doesn't care about it nearly as much as preserving the social order, or religious morality, or something else that's orthogonal to it at best.
3. X likes the idea of democracy in some sense, but thinks that extending the franchise to anyone other than white male patriarchal landowners was either an unfortunate pragmatic compromise or actively bad and should be reverted.
4. X likes the idea of democracy in some sense, but their ideas about how it works in real life, and what the problems with it and threats to it are, are so different than mine that we should probably be using different words to talk about them.
The first isn't relevant in most modern contexts. I feel like if you examined Republicans hard enough, you could sort almost all of them into one of the other three categories. Does that mean that they actually don't believe in democracy or not? Maybe!
I'm sure they'd sort most of us into complementary categories. If you go back and forth like that long enough, you could get each side to concede two or three inconsequential points and maybe reexamine some of their assumptions. Today, though, fuck it.
The guy with the "Stop the Genocide, Free Palestine" sign is voting for Harris too.
Swap your safe state vote with swing state votes.
Swapyourvote.org
Like Nader trader in 2000 but more organized because technology.
187: SP- if you don't mind sharing, how did you vote on the ballot questions?
8/10 on the political Turing test -- both the errors were calling a real statement fake, one D, one R. Probably luck, because I was going on vibes, mostly. My one thoughtful rule was that a Democrat who mentioned immigration was fake: not that Democrats don't care about immigrants, but it is a much much more salient issue for Republicans.
Holy shit, Seltzer's poll is on track so far
There was a rapid drop in DJT stock price a while ago and I think trading briefly halted. Up a bit and now back down since.
Acquiescing in a Trump victory is acquiescing to Russian conquest of Ukraine, and invites more wars of conquest in Europe.
Just in case anyone felt like closing their eyes to the global impact of this election.
191,192 https://x.com/richardjg_/status/1853846107513598294?s=46&t=nbIfRG4OrIZbaPkDOwkgxQ
Source https://x.com/richardjg_/status/1853863079198482547?s=46&t=nbIfRG4OrIZbaPkDOwkgxQ
My Latvian friend is sending me WhatsApp messages from a bar in Berlin. Lot of tense European folks there watching English language CNN and doing their own informal audience polling on anticipated election results.
It's kind of weird to see my own state's name in a screenshot from a bar on the other side of the ocean, knowing that so many people around the world are hanging on our results.
Of course, that's always true, or we wouldn't have the expression "when the United States sneezes the rest of the world catches pneumonia." But somehow getting it as a text message from my friend live in the moment makes it feel more real.
This from the Guardian made me laugh:
If you're based in the US, interested enough to be reading this and still not sure how to watch it on TV, you may be beyond help, to be honest. In the UK, it will be covered across the BBC (including radio), ITV, Channel 4, Sky News and various others. You can get CNN's US coverage by signing up on its website; it's also available on Sky. Mark Brown has more information on the broadcasts here - and the Guardian live blog will also be running, obviously.
I ended up yes on all. My kid thought shrooms was a bad idea but it seems pretty regulated so I said yes and canceled out his vote. Audit I was indifferent. Unions of course, fuck Uber. Eliminate MCAS my teacher wife had the say and voted yes. Tip minimum I wavered a bit because I got to know a senior state legislator this year who used to be in the restaurant business and he made some reasonable arguments against it but it's phased in over such a long period I decided it was probably better than not.
195: Nice, but mail vs. e-day probably has a significant partisan split. Gender split encouraging.
196 claims that Texas is breaking 55/45 women to men in early voting. That's pretty wild.
I mean, I'm scrolling around and seeing a lot of dramatic states. But I'm in Texas!
200: same NBC link shows that of the 600,000+ early ballots cast in Iowa, 39% to registered Dems, 39% to registered Republicans, 22% to other.
So we really have no idea. Because I'm sure Iowa, like most places, has voters labeled "other," who nevertheless almost always vote for one party. And we just don't know which party that is.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
199: I wish I'd asked earlier the thought on 2.
Tim voted for the first time, and he voted against psychedelics because he was concerned about private equity.
I voted for audit, for Uber union, for shrooms and for minimum wage. It's not just restaurants. The hotel baggage people are also sub minimum. I left the MCAS blank.
Because I'm sure Iowa, like most places, has voters labeled "other," who nevertheless almost always vote for one party. And we just don't know which party that is.
To have a point of comparison, I looked up the 2020 results in Iowa. I can't find 2020 early voting numbers (to get a sense of how that compares to the full election), but the total was 26% Dems, 36% Reps, 38% Independent. So the early voting has more Dems and fewer independents. -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa#Edison_exit_polls
I'm trying to follow the principle of waiting for actual votes to be counted but also I'm refreshing various pages way too often.
I was trying to figure out 2016 early vote gender breakdown, but gave up.
I thought a lot of the attacks on Biden's age were unfair, but I can't imagine him campaigning in the past few weeks like Harris has been doing. Not just because his age, but also all the commitments he still has as president.
Massive turnout at the precinct I'm working at. Tons of college students registering to vote.
My kids' stepsister just turned 18 yesterday, and voted. It's nice when the timing works out well like that.
Both Pokey and Rascal will turn 18 just a few weeks after a presidential election. :(
"Acquiescing in a Trump victory is acquiescing to Russian conquest of Ukraine, and invites more wars of conquest in Europe."
But for some people that just... doesn't matter very much. The world extends to the sea coast, and there's a little outpost of reality in the eastern Med, but the rest is just tourist destinations and ethnic jokes. It can be ignored.
Heading to the MassDems/Warren Election Watch party.
209: What's up with that voter ID law Sununu just signed?
re: previous discussions in the comments here, from the Guardian's live blog:
Abbas Alawieh, one of the co-founders of the Uncommitted movement, which as a national group declined to endorse Kamala Harris for the White House, has just told interviewers on MSNBC that he's voted for the vice-president in this election. He said this "is a moment of deep pain and frustration" over the war in Gaza and the ongoing sale of US weapons to Israel and yet he was "trying to do the politically savvy thing."
214- where's that?
210- I had one turn 18 a couple weeks ago and he voted early. At the other place I posted a before/now pair from 12 years ago and I let him help color in the bubble during Warren's first Senate run.
Anyone want to claim 213? (I'm just going to assume it's not referring to Palestinian-Americans in particular, although those would be curiously novel stereotypes.)
Well my FIL who used to be a reasonable person but the started dating a racist Trump supporter just told us he voted for Trump as the "better of two bad candidates". He still has FB posts up from 2016 about how Trump is a bully and what will we tell our kids if he's an example and I kind of want to ask him that now. Because of her he watched Fox all day and said Kamala "sidesteps every question and can't give a good answer to anything." At least he's in CA so it doesn't matter how he votes except on a personal level.
She died this summer before she could vote.
215: I'm not sure because it doesn't go into effect until next week. So far everyone we've checked in had id's except one elderly woman who was allowed to vote after having her photo taken and signing an affidavit.
215: I'm not sure because it doesn't go into effect until next week. So far everyone we've checked in had id's except one elderly woman who was allowed to vote after having her photo taken and signing an affidavit.
213 wasn't me, but I agree Gaza will be lost in the mists of time.* Far worse things** are totally forgotten, including multiple things that are happening right now.
*In the sense that hypothetical grandkid will have no idea what you're talking about, unless maybe they're a history major.
**Even if we limit "things" to US foreign policies.
217: SoWa Power Station. I got a link to the RSVP for doing GOTV with a group sponsored by MassDems.
220 and 221: it looks evil though. Seems un-New England.
223 and 224 are incomprehensible to the mind of man.
217: I can share the Invitation if you're interested. Doors open at 7. Event is 8-11.
Thanks for the offer, I'm coaching hockey until 8:30 which should be a good distraction.
I knocked on about 400 doors today. But fewer steps than Saturday, when I barely knocked on 120 doors.
228: I appreciate so much that you're doing that.
218 since when did Brianna Wu start commenting here?
I put up a proper election night thread. This one didn't feel sufficiently grandiose.
222: when you put it that way, the whole thought experiment tends to collapse into self-cancellation. Everything will be lost, except bullshit! Lots of bullshit will survive. (I am, disturbingly, still completely sober.)
232: I'm now slightly caught up on what's been going on with Brianna Wu, I guess? Type, delete, type, delete, delete delete delete, post.
Everything except bullshit about world-historical* events. I'm confident that Trump 2 would be world-historical, and that Gaza, to this point, isn't.
*Or, more pertinently here, American-historical.