If they're planning a big action right out of the gate, then meeting it with equally big resistance will help. The Rs want to show power; anything that gums up the works is good. It's my impression that the mass demonstrations and resistance at airports made a big difference on the Muslim ban in January 2017. Took the wind out of their sails, and showed that we weren't just going to roll over.
"Mass Deportations Now" is an invitation to an American Holocaust. Fucking that up in any way possible as early as possible is the best way to make sure it doesn't go further than an invitation.
Not gonna lie, there's real risk involved. ICE is a pretty lawless organization; things framed as border enforcement means that the law will be on their side for a lot of things anyway; Trumpy judges will have their whole entire hand (left one anwy, the right one will be making a salute) on the scales of justice.
It's probably just Berlin November that's giving me this cheery perspective, right?
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Doug, what say you on Merz and Pistorius?
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OP:
1. Guess: mass deportations (actually massive, as opposed to a couple of buses for the cameras) would dislocate logistics such that consumer shortages start within days.
2. Where are these deportees going? Mexico will take its own citizens, but doesn't have to take anyone else. It can also stop catching and deporting Central Americans like it's been doing for Biden.
I think it would be wise to expect consumer shortages.
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2: They'll need Harbeck, but CDU-SPD-Green ("Kenya") is my prediction for the next coalition. Merz is old and oily, but you can't always get a conservative leader who's trained as a physical scientist and also a pastor's daughter who grew up in the East. I had kinda hoped the CSU would decide it was time again to test the "a Bavarian premier is too conservative (and too parochial) to become a German chancellor" thesis. No such luck.
The SPD honchos are still saying they'll stick with Scholz, but I gotta think they'll change their tune. Pistorius and Harbeck will bring some fresh life to a new coalition, and also make Merz look past his prime.
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4: Mot related to the deportations, I'm planning to make a list of stuff that I've been meaning to buy that I think could be more expensive with tariffs. For example, sheets from Target and possibly some French cookware from Sur La Table.
To the OP: I also have been thinking about how to resist the deportations and the Trump administration quite a bit and don't know where to start. I've been wondering if places of worship should start offering to house/hide them.
2.2 The Nazis said they would send Jewish people to Madagascar.
And actually sent them to Poland, which they were obliged to conquer beforehand.
6.1: Literally everything will be more expensive.
First Trump may not actually be pro-muslim, and now he's making prices go up??
6.1- Yeah, of course. But I can't buy a year's worth of food or fuel. And there's no reason to spend money I wasn't planning to already. Just thinking of accelerating some purchases.
Yeah, it's kind of terrifying because as stated it's the worst ethnic cleansing in American history, and could take us down the spiral where resistance triggers more crackdowns/arrests of dissenters, and vice versa. It seems like there's a good chance it only brutalizes, say, tens of thousands before it all falls apart for a variety of reasons, but I have no idea what mass protest is going to emerge / is likely to move the needle.
I do think that while everyone who voted Trump is morally culpable for this if it happens, but in practice a large chunk of the low-information ones on the margin did not think they were voting for it, thought they were voting for "(handwaves) fixing things", and are therefore turnable.
That said, I think we'll come up with something. 13 days after the election, this is where I am, cringe though it may be.
Maybe the only new observation in this comment: at the very first sign it might really be happening, won't Uber/Lyft prices go through the roof as people leave or hide? That might get through to the asshole professional class the fastest.
I think the low information voters, at least the white ones, are the ones who most believe Trump's deportation promises and are going to get what they want.
I'm going to visit this week. Florida too.
I know this regional organization is doing good things.
There are things like the decline to answer campaign about Abbott's requirement to have hospitals ask about immigration status, state level advocacy, etc. Texas ILC and Texas Civil Right Project are both good sources of info, I'm sure there are others
There are things like the decline to answer campaign about Abbott's requirement to have hospitals ask about immigration status, state level advocacy, etc. Texas ILC and Texas Civil Right Project are both good sources of info, I'm sure there are others
I have no idea why everything is posting twice
Because it's the second time 'round.
20: Thank you! I'm actually compiling a list of resources for my local politics blog, so this is very helpful.
I think the low information voters, at least the white ones, are the ones who most believe Trump's deportation promises and are going to get what they want.
Many of them, probably. But they think it'll make things better for them.
Trump and his voters just want some photo ops. If it's not on TV it might as well not be happening for them.
Stephen Miller really does want to do terrible things, but I expect him to get thrown under the bus for Trump's personal profit like [checks notes] every other ideologue who made the mistake of thinking that Trump was the mark.
Trump wants an unconstitutional level of control over the military, to strengthen those branches of law enforcement that are most friendly to him, and to punish liberal cities. Deportations are a path to all of those. There is going to be much more than a few photo ops.
12: BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY!
There is going to be much more than a few photo ops.
This is what I think, too. The most consistent features over his lifespan are grift, revenge, and racism. The grift isn't totally relevant here, though.
Plenty of grift in prisons and transport logistics. Wasn't the DeSantis circus moving people to blue cities/states found to include shady payments to supporters for overpriced bus rentals?
This feels like the question of the early days. There's no doubt about what Trump/Miller want and what Homan is prepared to deliver. Maybe this is simply cope, but I think it's an open question how much disruption business interests are willing to tolerate, and whether they can act as a brake on the worst outcomes. At the very least, I expect lots of horrifying actions in the early days, with maybe a retreat and then running on they-tied-our-hands immigration again in the midterms (and beyond). But without a serious effort to stop them, this could be very grim.
It's selfish of me, but I keep wondering about the personal impact(s) of it.
Precisely because protesting and the usual forms of activism are ineffective, it's relatively unlikely to be really cracked down on, so we can go on waving signs and donating money to causes all we want. Project 2025 seems like the most important thing to watch out for. It's maybe not necessary for all the totalitarian stuff, but very helpful for it, plus a one-way shift to general kakistocracy. Even that is a selfish concern, because Cassandane's job would likely be impacted by Project 2025. Trump has said he's opposed to it, which of course means less than nothing. I believe Trump is disorganized and incompetent, but given that he just won reelection again, I find myself doubting what "organized" and "competent" mean or how important they are. Maybe he's lying about being opposed to it, and will try to do it, but will be so incompetent about it that it won't amount to much? Maybe he'll do it by accident rather than intentionally?
If we get through the first few months of next year without any change to how protests go, and without boring bureaucratic functionaries getting fired en masse, then I'll expect the next four years to go like 2017-2021 did. Which of course is bad, but my family and most people we know personally will survive. Sorry to think of it in those terms. Conversely if not, then my family and I will probably have bug-out bags ready at all times, for all the good it'll do.
My kid goes to a bilingual school in one of the most recognizable liberal cities and my wife works with recent immigrants in a neighboring city and I can't decide how much of this shit we're actually going to be personally experiencing. Like will the Texas National Guard actually show up to arrest my kids classmate or my wife's student? Is it crazy to even think that could happen?
Didn't Miller survive all four years of the first Trump administration? There's no reason to expect he won't last the coming full term.
The worst stable outcome would be that after deporting enough to give the impression of action, they give most undocumented immigrants some special status in lieu of deportation that ties them to employers with close to labor standards than today. I don't know that they're with it enough to figure that out, though.
Do all states have state guards of some sort? The scenario in 32 seems like the beginning of a civil war.
Or just put them in massive camps and rent them out to employers like prisoners.
I know It Can't Happen Here is neither particularly good nor particularly prescient, but I keep coming back to bits of it.
It could now be published to the world, and decidedly it was published, that unemployment had, under the benign reign of President Berzelius Windrip, almost disappeared. Almost all workless men were assembled in enormous labor camps, under M.M. officers. Their wives and children accompanied them and took care of the cooking, cleaning, and repair of clothes. The men did not merely work on state projects; they were also hired out at the reasonable rate of one dollar a day to private employers. Of course, so selfish is human nature even in Utopia, this did cause most employers to discharge the men to whom they had been paying more than a dollar a day, but that took care of itself, because these overpaid malcontents in their turn were forced into the labor camps.
Out of their dollar a day, the workers in the camps had to pay from seventy to ninety cents a day for board and lodging.
32- AFAIK yes, but I'm guessing there will be a lot of resistance from blue state governors using their own NG against their residents. Miller has explicitly talked about this scenario of red state NG being sent in to blue states.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/trump-2024-immigration-policy-mass-deportations-stephen-miller/
"You go to the red state governors and you say, give us your National Guard," Miller explained on Kirk's podcast. "We will deputize them as immigration enforcement officers...the Alabama National Guard is going to arrest illegal aliens in Alabama and the Virginia National Guard in Virginia. And if you're going to go into an unfriendly state like Maryland, well, there would just be Virginia doing the arrest in Maryland, right, very close, very nearby."
At least in California, most State Guard servicemembers are concurrently National Guard.
Whither the Jade Helm of other states?
Is there any roll for local city councils in this deportation businesses? Safe cities or anything like that?
Sanctuary cities I mean. And yes, Google tells me there's quite a lot that can be done.
We've been a sanctuary city for 40 years but it wouldn't surprise me if a Hoogle search for "sanctuary cities" is the starting point for where Miller goes. Fortunately Google sucks now so he'll end up in some random town with a church that's labeled as a sanctuary.
32: Like will the Texas National Guard actually show up to arrest my kids classmate or my wife's student?
Maybe. Not being sure is one of the things they are counting on.
Is it crazy to even think that could happen?
No.
The "revenge" quality of this administration is really a buzzkill.
34: Yes. I think any deportations will be a combo of some show stuff and vindictive ones for political (blue states/cities) or personal gain. A good possibility for some guest worker program to not really hurt food and construction industries.
And I think Moby is right in 26. Will use it to create something out of the usual order. State of emergency/martial law, or whatever.
Is anyone trying to figure out who is whispering to Trump about the transition to authoritarianism? He's clearly following a playbook. Or do we just assume it's the Russians and move on, not thinking too hard about the fact that the Russians are successfully dismantling the government from the top? Or is it the various Bannon types in his orbit? I'd genuinely like to know!
The Kremlinology shit drives me nuts. It's Trump.
I'm wrong about lots of stuff, so I don't like to make predictions. But "there won't be mass deportation because X" sounds like something a Trump appointee would say when they are trying to get a normie to take an mid-level administration job in their department. And then the normie spends Christmas working out plans to nationalize Greyhound so that they can run 150 buses a day to an isolated border crossing a dozen miles outside Yuma.
51: Not that I know anything, but I'm assuming it's straightforwardly instructions from Russia. Not that it particularly matters -- they're not worse than the homegrown loonies, although plausibly better organized.
52: you just say that because you never got your pee tape.
It's going to come out soon. Too late, but soon.
could be more expensive with tariffs
Now's probably the time to upgrade your phone and computer.
7 Wir lagen vor Madagaskar und hatten die Pest an Bord It's a jaunty little tune.
The Kremlinology shit drives me nuts. It's Trump.
I can't bring myself to believe this. He has tactical animal cunning, but I can't see him coming up with these complex long-play strategies.
We're going to sign up for rooftop solar before the end of the year. Tax credit and tariffs are relevant. And PSC approved rate hikes.
The Trumpers really want deportations, and I think they'll do more than a little. Revoke TPS for Haitians, send people notices to depart: that's a step so easy even incompetent people can execute it. There probably are the votes in Congress to make asylum tougher.
Is the current judiciary going to enforce limits in using appropriated funds for different purposes, and the limits on acting appointments? I kind of think not.
62: The whiplash of what the courts think a Biden admin could do on its own vs. what a Trump admin is likely to be staggering. (Or will Roberts/Barrett get a bit scared?)
63 I just don't think they're going to stop most things. The Muslim ban decision set the tone.
A lot of the action will be shadow docket -- refusing to grant cert from ridiculous 5th Circuit rulings, that kind of thing.
I guess the other thing with deportations is how far normie Republicans chamber of commerce types think they can go in resisting. I don't know, but wouldn't be surprised if there is some way to penalize employers of undocumented people. The government knows perfectly well which employers are sending in money to fraudulent social security accounts. It can tell them to cut it out, can tell employers that whatever enforcement tools they have on the books are going to be used. Which employers are going to engage in open defiance once they've been notified?
Immigration is largely about demand for labor. These people aren't coming here to beg or starve: they're coming because we have jobs for them, and the authorities have largely been willing to look the other way because of employers' interests.
Miller can get rid of a lot of immigrants 'legally' and then do some deportations for the cameras, hoping to provoke a reaction that discredits the opposition.
The topic reminds me of this raid from Trump's last term.
They tried to replace that football stadium in the 1990s, but failed. I don't think the town will ever have the money to propose it again.
There are a lot of things that ordinary people can be doing now to prepare, and in the future if (when) the new bad things happen. Most of them I won't put in a blog comment. Heebie has my email if anyone wants to talk offline.
I don't make political predictions. But one thing I can say with total confidence is that every evil aspect of the EXISTING immigration system will be dialed up by this administration. Here are some things that it is helpful to do now, under Biden, and will still be helpful to do come January:
1. Court accompaniment. Immigration courts are open to the public. Nonprofits helping people with their asylum claims often need friendly faces to simply show up and be a presence. Reach out to and ask what kind of help is helpful.
2. Money. If you can afford it, start monthly donations NOW to national groups like Mijente and United We Dream, and local immigration groups in your area.
3. Smart people who can read and comprehend legalese. Immigration law is ferociously complicated and NO ONE should try to practice it without serious training. But there are a zillion administrative tasks that can be done to support someone's legal case. And supporting those cases is incredibly effective. Throwing sand in the gears of the immigration legal process indisputably BUYS PEOPLE TIME. Buying time lets them plan, lets them hand off important things like child custody, lets them sell property. Even if you can't stop a deportation, you can slow it down, make it slightly less catastrophic.
4. Speak up. Be brief, be sarcastic, be heartfelt, be honest. Just make comments in passing all the time, in front of every friend and acquaintance you have. Whatever your personality and natural phrasing is, use it. Push back against the reframing of reality. "He wants to deport people without papers -- good thing my grandfather is dead! His whole family came without papers." "Deporting all those people? What's going to happen my Social Security without all the billions they put into it?"* "I dunno, i just think instead of deporting people who are living their lives and minding their business, we should be building some new housing that people can actually afford."
*Undocumented people contribute roughly $11 billion a year to Social Security via invalid SS numbers. The department sends "no match" letters to their employers and everyone just pretends it isn't happening.
More Border Chronicle: Q&A about the role of sheriffs in deportation, with details about the status quo. I can excerpt quotes later for those who never click through.
61: My house is in a woodsy area. It would flunk a shade study.
58: yeah, ai have an iPhone 12. It looks like I can still get money back and would not be able to next year. Purchased when we had news that Trump was not re-elected. The new ones have eSIMs which would be handy when traveling abroad.
Every evil aspect of the EXISTING immigration system will be dialed up by this administration.
The distinguished gentlehuman from the City of Brotherly Love speaks the truth.
72: Every evil aspect of the EXISTING immigration system will be dialed up by this administration.
Did see someone speculate recently about a world where Bush pivoted to immigration rather than cutting Social Security after the 2004 election. I think there was enough support for something better to get through (probably still somewhat sucky). In fact Boehner sat on a Senate bill when Obama was in hiding behind The so-called Hastert* rule. Boehner is now a retired , jovial Republican from the "sane" era but did a lot to muck up basic governance during the Tea Party era.
*Just irks me no end that the atrocious pedophile who was Republican speaker of the House is memorialized this way. And the press/discourse treats the Hastert Egregious Pedophile Rule just like they do the filibuster--as a fact of nature and not an arbitrary convention designed to duck responsibility.
Did see someone speculate recently about a world where Bush pivoted to immigration rather than cutting Social Security after the 2004 election.
?? There were major bipartisan immigration bills in both 2006 (McCain-Kennedy) and 2007 (can't recall sponsors, but I think Harry Reid and Lindsey Graham were both supporters) that Bush strongly supported. As in, making personal phone calls to legislators.
Those bills were demolished by Lou Dobbs on Fox every night proclaiming that immigrants were bringing leprosy, and a "grassroots" revolt of conservative phone calls to Congress. The latter was IIRC triggered in part by alarmist cable news coverage of Latinos protesting the enforcement-only immigration legislation of House Republican extremist James Sensenbrenner.
2006-07 was the high water mark for bipartisan agreement on immigration. After that, there was a vehement and LOUD minority of immigration restrictionists that found a home in the Republican party and eventually took it over. A 2013 immigration reform bill passed the Senate with a two-thirds majority but died in the House due to aforementioned extremists.
Sorry, Dobbs on CNN. Fox was airing other anti-immigrant bigots.
Didn't even get to 50 votes in the Senate, let alone 60. 47 votes with 14Rs and 34Ds in favor (counting McConnell as a yes, but he switched once it was losing for the usual procedural reasons).
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/28/washington/28cnd-immig.html
74: OK. I did not recall that Bush pushed it that hard.
And it must be the 2013 bill I recall Boehner sitting on.
Convoluted/depressing/interesting story about the economic interests involved. ProPublica profiles a Florida legislator and rancher who for a long time was "look, we need these people for our businesses" but at some point switched to the brainwashed-sounding party line. Then he voted for a bill designed to hound undocumented immigrants out of the state to the extent that it pissed off every business in his district, and he went on an apology tour. But he's made himself relatively immune to any crackdowns by making his business instead exploit immigrants legally through an ag visa program!
And he was termed out for re-election this year, but he is running for State Senate in two years.
Here's the start of a bluesky thread about who's most likely to need help from the coming immigration crackdown:
https://bsky.app/profile/mattcameron.bsky.social/post/3lbeb42eqdl2t
It's good stuff. One of the larger points the writer makes is that truly mass efforts will require a lot more resources than ICE has and will take time to spin up.
I sure hope that's true. I guess we'll find out if Trump is aiming for what VV Putin called a dictatorship of laws, of whether he and his people are willing to shed the veneer of law. The Nazis were rounding thousands of people up within days of the "Reichstag Fire Order."
For what it's worth, I don't disagree with the single thing in that Bluesky thread.
The only thing I would add is that I think he will reinstate his practice from his first term of trying to get ordinary members of the public to call a hotline to report so-called immigrant criminals.
The chilling effect of this sort of thing is much broader than its actual effect. Back during the Obama years, I remember taking a terrified phone call from a schoolteacher whose coworker had told her she was obligated to report the minor child in her class who was undocumented, because he was a "crime in progress." Nothing about that was true, but she absolutely believed it to be true.