I guess that's on the irreversible side.
I am a little bummed that the funding freeze order was halted. Trump and his administration try to do horrible things and the left gets them blocked or abated and the people think that Trump's policies aren't so bad. They're never going to experience what is at stake, that there are even stakes, if they don't get what they voted for.
There's two camps of Trump voters:
- die-hards
- low-information
If you let the freeze go through, the die-hards will celebrate and low-information won't connect the dots. I'm very pessimistic.
The only thing that works is that Americans always sour on whoever is in charge, without any deeper considerations.
3: We've got four years of this coming. I am not worried about the possibility that Trump's policies will do too little damage.
Hard agree with both 4 and 5. Fundamentally the way democracy works is that low information voters will vote out the incumbents if things are bad (sometimes for reasons that are objectively incorrect, see Biden and inflation), and although they're stupid this check does make things better than other forms of government.
The real problem with 3 and the US, is that our governmental design is dumb. The founding fathers did a pretty decent job with what they knew at the time, but no one nowadays would design a country with 50 states, with a senate, with the filibuster, with a president, with such a high bar for constitutional ammendments, etc., etc. A normal parliamentary system where the representatives choose the PM and a majority can basically do what they want, but do it by passing laws instead of playing calvinball, is just much much better.
I'm reading the Oxford history of the French Revolution, which is hard going but which gives a good idea of the number of other possibilities that were kicking around out there... the various constitutions they tried before Napoleon took over make interesting reading.
Biden missed the chance to do the funniest pardon ever.
By saying "Exsqueeze me? Baking powder?"
I am a little bummed that the funding freeze order was halted. Trump and his administration try to do horrible things and the left gets them blocked or abated and the people think that Trump's policies aren't so bad.
It's just for a few days - lots could still happen.
and low-information won't connect the dots
Their thinking seems to be that the president personally is responsible for whatever happens at the time. No reasoning about delayed effects or policy. I think "my social security checks stopped coming while Trump is in office" would actually register even with Trump voters.
That's why I'm personally trying to increase demand for eggs. That and I'm tired of oatmeal.
Sure, but I would like more of an overall ethic of letting them experience what they voted for (or didn't vote against). We certainly don't seem to be winning people over with "it would have gone so wrong for you had we not blocked the bad thing and they're the people who tried to do the bad thing you didn't experience."
Yet somehow Trump was not personally blamed for COVID! Or if he was, it flipped no more than 5% of the voting public.
3: heightening the contradictions has never gone well for the left, but maybe this time will be the first.
The funding freeze order accomplished the immediate goal of getting headlines, scaring the left, and making it look like he's doing what his followers want. Actually going through with it would have been a disaster in a highly visible way. It's been delayed by the court. My guess is that in 6-12 weeks, the Supreme Court will issue a ruling that gives Trump a lot of what he wants if they just do the paperwork better next time. By that point they'll be able to target the cruelty better and the mainstream media will blame any problems on the Deep State who are trying to make Trump look bad because they don't like the end of telework.
Their thinking seems to be that the president personally is responsible for whatever happens at the time. No reasoning about delayed effects or policy. I think "my social security checks stopped coming while Trump is in office" would actually register even with Trump voters.
This is their thinking on October 20th of an election year. Right now their thinking is "Here's 100 things that I spend more mental bandwidth on than anything remotely political." The menu at the local diner is higher up than any politician.
15: What do you mean? He lost! And by popular vote margin he lost in an unusually large landslide!
I should have read 15 all the way to the end... Anyway, 5% is a pretty large number of people. But yes democracy would be healthier if the voters were swingier like they were in the past.
Yet somehow Trump was not personally blamed for COVID! Or if he was, it flipped no more than 5% of the voting public.
He probably kind of was in 2020? Just by 2024, it was too long ago to seem real anymore.
18: and interestingly this paper suggests that COVID was what did it: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7809554/
What's interesting is that 2020 was probably his best year for approval rating, showing once again that polls are unreliable.
12: The funding freeze didn't affect direct payments to individuals, so SS checks would have been unaffected.
More importantly, yesterday's brouhaha absolutely created a firestorm of panic and awareness among nonpolitical people in dozens of industries. I'm on numerous listservs and part of several national networks, and literally thousands of people in my professional universe alone were terrified and shocked at the far-ranging implications of the freeze. There is zero danger that this isn't getting to "low-information" voters. Zero.
On a semi-related note, the calm and levelheaded Ask a Manager blog has a doozy of a post up right now, recapping some of the hundreds and hundreds of panicked inquiries she's getting from federal employees.
Can you say more about why this would be reaching low-information voters?
Like, if there are a low number of federal employees in your circle of acquaintances, I'm not sure how a low info person would notice any of this.
18: That's... precisely what I referred to in the second sentence of 15. He lost by 4.5 points, sure, which is meaningful, but his percentage of the total vote increased by 0.7% from 2016, and the absolute number voting for him increased by 18%. Even accepting that the equivalent increases Biden got over Clinton were 3.1% and 23%, that still seems a very muted blame effect for, you know, all of COVID. I think there's some IOKIYAR effect in the median voter.
Re: low-information voters, it reminds me of these clips from The Daily Show about undecided voters from 2004, 2008, and 2012. "I'm just going to go drown myself in a bucket."
The federal employees piece, not so much. The funding freeze, absolutely. Some hypothetical-but-closely-adjacent-to-real-life examples:
1) You work for a local school district as a crossing guard or secretary. Your co-workers are gossiping about the news and someone says Trump has frozen all of the Department of Education funding. You have only a vague notion* of where your school gets money, but this sounds really bad and you start worrying about your paycheck.
2) You teach a GED class at your local library. Your boss's professional association sent three urgent emails in 24 hours, linking to federal memos and news stories, and trying to predict whether your program's funding would be cut off. Your boss forwarded all of those emails to staff with little context or explanation. Your stress levels are through the roof.
3) You are a small business owner who provides supplies to the big businesses with federal DOT contracts to build roads and bridges. You see a headline on social media about the frozen funding and then you get an email from your local chamber of commerce. You suddenly realize that it doesn't matter that the feds don't pay you *directly,* your cash flow could be jammed up if payments are delayed for even a few weeks.
4) You are a low-level staff member at a nursing home and you overhear someone saying that the Medicaid portal is down and they can't process payments. You immediately start worrying about *your own healthcare,* because your job is so low-paying that you are on Medicaid yourself.
I want to be clear -- a lot of members of the public have *no idea* that their jobs are paid for with federal funds. Sometimes this is because state leaders deliberately obscure the source of money because they want to suggest that "our state takes care of its own". More often, it's because employees who don't have direct responsibility for financial operations (writing grant proposals, submitting reimbursement requests to the feds) just don't *need* to know, and they don't really care, so they don't ask. So when something like this happens, people start flailing around and getting frightened emails from their national association and half-accurate information funneled through social media or their friends, and they panic.
On RFK, Jr, I was really disappointed to see that Sheldon Whitehouse took the "calm down, don't get so emotional" response to people concerned that he might confirm a malicious nutjob who happens to be his personal friend. "Chill out, I haven't made up my mind" misses the fact that not having made up his mind to vote no is exactly the problem. There's no information the confirmation hearings could provide that could justify a vote to confirm.
||
The Brutalist, y/n? It's really fucking long, guys.
|>
I'm all for movies going back to ninety minutes.
29 haven't seen it so take it for what it's worth but my impression from the various film critics and enthusiasts I follow leaves me thinking I'll probably skip it or at least not be in any rush to see it (some liked it but on balance there was nothing that made me want to rush out and see it)
And the memo has now been rescinded.
I am hopeful that some Democrat somewhere takes the lesson from Trump about American politics and gets mean and crude. The idea that the Medicaid portal has gone down is an outrage, and ought to be treated as such in graphic terms. "That dumbfuck Trump has killed the Medicaid website" in exactly those words, in a public setting. "He has no idea what he's doing." I think if Schumer said that, he'd actually break through to both his constituents and the New York Times.
"Fascist" turns out to be a weak insult among Americans. "Asshole" is better.
Trump has honed bullshit as a technique in a way that is unavailable to Democrats, but the truth, correctly presented, can be tremendously powerful. Dukakis ran on "competence," but the message didn't land because he didn't get people pissed off about it. (For one thing, Reagan was nowhere near as rich a target as Trump.)
It is insufficient to say that RFK wants to kill people by bringing back polio. You need to add that if some parent of a dead child gets pissed off and acts on that rage, well, RFK deserves what he's got coming. And then, of course, deny that you're calling for his assassination, or would dream of even hinting at that. There are lessons to be taken from Trump.
Anyway, I'd like to see someone try it. I can't think of any Democrat who could adopt Trump's mojo, but it seems like there ought to be someone out there.
33: All this stuff about the rule of law and violating the Constitution is all well and good for the intellectuals, but they've already got the message, in part because Trump himself delivers it every day. The right message is that Trump is weak. He's a pussy! He gets a little pushback and backs down!
Trump personally was notably absent from the whole fuss over the freeze, which is interesting.
37: I mean, I'm not going over his Truth Social feed to see what's on there. He wasn't giving orders by social media, to be sure.
Yeah, I think if he had posted or said anything about it anywhere it would have spread. It's definitely not his kind of thing so not surprising exactly.
Trump doesn't care about any of this stuff. If it were left up to him, he'd take credit for widespread vaccination. But he knows who his allies are.
Regardless of his disinterest, this can still be hung around his neck by someone who can get the message to break through.* And if you can get him to deny involvement and blame his subordinates (a favorite move of his) that's golden in the right hands.
*Or so I theorize. I need to get a job as a political consultant, but for whom? Fetterman is a blockhead, but I don't think he's enough of a blockhead for this moment.
36 I agree with this messaging (I use it myself with my Trumpy relatives because it drives them crazy) and it will likely have the effect of Trump doubling down on the dumbest shit ever which will hurt him even more
I saw something on Bluesky that was purportedly an overhead conversation of people at a grocery store saying "He stopped that? What? We need that!" "And I voted for him!" "Yeah, me too." Possibly referencing SNAP. It was from an account of no provenance, but I could see that kind of thing breaking through (if repeated).
36/41: No objection to the messaging, whatever works, but it can create some cognitive dissonance.
JFC also LOL https://x.com/presssec/status/1884672871944901034?s=46&t=nbIfRG4OrIZbaPkDOwkgxQ
He wasn't giving orders by social media
I thought that's what the Executive Orders had become?
Cognitive dissonance is only a problem for smart people and non-hypocrites. I'm talking about messaging for Americans and the New York Times. (The linked cartoon is great and exactly on point.)
36: Trump is literally a pussy, in its original sense: he is a teetotaller.
45: Those were about as professional but had more detail / a veneer of officiality. They did copy-paste his TS posts into press releases.
JFC also LOL https://x.com/presssec/status/1884672871944901034?s=46&t=nbIfRG4OrIZbaPkDOwkgxQ
WTF?
50: You prove this Trumper correct:
The democrat brain can't comprehend this
It's funny that the press secretary is just about the only one talking and acting with the level of authority they claim to have.
I am hopeful that some Democrat somewhere takes the lesson from Trump about American politics and gets mean and crude.
I don't actually think this is true, but you do have to be charming and commanding.
I mean, it can be true that you hope it.
My possibly unfounded impression is that when Democrats get mean and crude it's historically been directed towards their left.
Ha, now two judges (so far) have used the Press Secretary's tweet as justification to impose a TRO.
This utter sloppiness and chaos is one of the things that should be emphasized by Dems. It's just total crap execution aside from the stupid attempted substance.
I recall just after the Afghanistan withdrawal Ashley Parker* saying about some of the chaos from the administration that it was like "the Trump administration for a week" and how bad that was. So Biden got permanently dinged for one week versus a whole term of it.
*Another Maureen Dowd alum. They are a malignancy in the press corps.
Oh, I guess it's just the one judge who did it specifically in response to the tweet. (The other is the judge that issued one yesterday.)
So you're (almost) all fantasizing about the next election, huh?
I got an urgent fundraising request from one nonprofit to help make up for frozen federal funds. It feels like they're just passing on a ransom note, and while one always understands why people want the ransom paid...
Last questions for the room: 1) How high is your general awareness of the anti-trans executive orders? 2) How high is your awareness of any significant opposition to them so far?
59
So you're (almost) all fantasizing about the next election, huh?
It's not that I think it's a good plan, it's just that I don't have any better one. I'm thoroughly defeatist at the moment. My plan is to see who on the left does well in the next election and then focus my money and advocacy energy as they direct. But the people who have been leading the left so far have done such a bad job of it it (or been outclassed, or unlucky, or whatever) that I figure there's no point.
Last questions for the room:
1. Medium? I'm aware that they're happening, along with a lot of other things. There was an anti-trans E.O. theoretically aimed at kids but with a cutoff of 19, which legal scholars in comment sections said increased the odds that it would get judicial review.
2. Low.
I'm aware of the anti-trans orders because of Bluesky. I don't know what the coverage is like in the news.
i unexpectedly spent the last 4 hours connecting trans folks to legal representation bc their passport & other documents (including birth certificates) are being withheld. or a new passport issued with the wrong gender. in the course of scrambling to get people represented, had soooo many colleagues email me in panic about their trans kids.
blew off steam by leaving an irate vmail for padilla. schiff's apparently decided to never clear out his vmail again.
if you haven't yet applied to change the gender on your passport, for god's sake do *not* do it now. people cannot get their old passports or the birth certificates returned to them.
if you have ever had a passport showing your aab gender & you now have one showing your new gender or x, think long & hard before letting any federal official get their hands on your new passport.
if you are in the para 2 circumstances & currently outside the usa, before you try & re-enter make sure you have legal representation & a very very good plan.
heebie has my email.
64: Yikes!
60: I'd like to know more about non electoral activism as well so that Dems feel heat. Walz was on Maddox last night, and he made the point that somebody like Trump is likely not to obey/respect a judicial order.
What's the best way to get more Dems elected? And is there any benefit in primarying some Dems in safe seats to get better (smarter, more responsive to their constituents, whatever) house Reps. Mine is pretty bleh, but there were 7 candidates the last time the seat opened up, and now it's a safe Dem seat with no opposition. I don't think there's any appetite to go after her, but I'd like to see a stronger group of legislators. AOC is a uniquely talented politician, but she's also more responsive to her constituents and a better organizer than her predecessor was.
I have a dumb brain-teaser and absolutely no one who could possibly care:
I'm born year of the snake. Zodiac calendar is 12 years long. This will be a new year of the snake. But I'm only 46 years old!
(Also I literally was discussing the reason why here the other day, so it's unlikely the brain teaser is unspoilt.)
Drivers' licenses are state-issued, but do you know if the RealID system is affected by these orders too?
Are they really going to make people use RealID this time? I still don't have a drivers' license that meets RealID.
People have been hypothesizing that RealID could be leveraged by the federal government, but as far as I know that's only speculation at this point. The logistics are different given that it's not an actual federal office doing the issuing.
Here's the latest targeting social transition at schools - pronouns, bathrooms, etc.
69: All states are certified compliant now, the question seems to be if they will start rejecting non-compliant IDs at airports this May like they planned. If so, you'll need to go replace your ID to fly.
I could do Amtrak too. At least until my birthday a few months later.
In the time it took to leave those last couple comments, OPM announced, among other measures, a bathroom ban in all federally run buildings in the country: https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3lgw7ow7ilc2q
We all knew this was coming, and guess what, I still hate it!
I don't have any changes to make, but I'm still regretting not renewing my passport under Biden. Mildly concerned about my mom's passport too since she was not born in the US (but has been here over 50 years).
74: Ensure that all applicable agency policies and documents, including forms, use the term "sex" and not "gender." . . . Ensure that intimate spaces designated for women, girls, or females (or for men, boys, or males) are designated by biological sex and not gender identity.
Man, given that rubric I would for sure take the opportunity to designate a lot of "ALL SEX RESTROOMS" until someone made me stop.
They should separate into peeing and pooping.
You can pee in the poop one, but not poop in the pee one.
I'm quite aware of the trans EOs but waiting until I see a couple of folks in person tomorrow to learn about what activism I should be engaging in. I have some ideas but am waiting to hear their thoughts (they're all activist types, I'm not randomly accosting trans people and expecting them to tell me how to activism).
Based entirely on the emotionally moved response I have gotten from total strangers vis-a-vis my subtle Ukraine pin, I'm wondering if I should also get a trans flag pin. It feels weirdly appropriating for a cis lady to wear it, but much weirder to wear the one that says "Ally". Ugh.
I think allies are allowed to wear a pin! I guess you might confuse somebody, but many people could stand to have their confidence shaken around their ability to tell at a glance who's trans and who isn't.
People are really good a recognizing others. A bartender I hadn't seen in at least ten years not only recognized me, but remembered my order from ten years ago. And my name and where I worked.
Wear a pin that says "allez" to identify the francophiles. Or phobes, I guess.
Anyway, I think my sister was able to get some paperwork in for her trans kid before the inauguration. At least I hope so.
I'm disappointed that no one has yet mentioned eggs in the RFK context, given that a) they're vital to the production of vaccines and b) he may well have had some laid in his brain
SEN. BENNET: "Mr Kennedy, can you tell the Committee whether you have ever encountered a psychneuein?"
MR. KENNEDY: (agonised grunting noises, muffled sound of skull sutures spreading apart)
Update:
I hope someone's keeping track of all the pardoned January 6 coup participants. So far:
one has been shot dead by police: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/indiana-man-pardoned-jan-6-crimes-killed-traffic-stop-shooting-deputy-rcna189502
one has been rearrested for a firearms charge
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested
one is on the run accused of CSA
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-pardoned-jan-6-rioter-190927630.html
and one has just been sentenced to 17 years because she killed a woman and crippled a man while drunk https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/what-i-did-was-ungodly-jan-6-rioter-who-caused-deadly-dui-crash-while-driving-drunk-on-wrong-side-of-highway-goes-from-pardon-to-prison/
Update:
I hope someone's keeping track of all the pardoned January 6 coup participants. So far:
one has been shot dead by police: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/indiana-man-pardoned-jan-6-crimes-killed-traffic-stop-shooting-deputy-rcna189502
one has been rearrested for a firearms charge
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested
one is on the run accused of CSA
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-pardoned-jan-6-rioter-190927630.html
not to be confused with the other one who is also facing a CSA charge but is not on the run
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ncwd.117596/gov.uscourts.ncwd.117596.14.0.pdf
one has just been sentenced to 17 years because she killed a woman and crippled a man while drunk https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/what-i-did-was-ungodly-jan-6-rioter-who-caused-deadly-dui-crash-while-driving-drunk-on-wrong-side-of-highway-goes-from-pardon-to-prison/
Stupid Fed tricks:
"Obviously it is not standard to have aircraft collide. I want to be clear on that."
--Former MTV Real World star and current (Confirmed 97-0) Secretary of Transportation of The United States of America.
89: I've been thinking about that. 5 incidents in 8 days is a pretty spectacular rate. In the old days, it'd be a solid bit for a blog that would eventually get known everywhere as the definitive source.
89: NPR has a rundown. (Most ly pre-pardon)
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/30/nx-s1-5276336/donald-trump-jan-6-rape-assault-pardons-rioters
Via Bluesky:
https://bsky.app/profile/ajaxsinger.bsky.social/post/3lgweuyt7l22f (I think you need to be logged in to see it):
Everything they do can be sorted into 4 categories:
Nazi impulse/Toddler execution
Nazi impulse/Nazi execution
Toddler Impulse/Nazi Execution
Toddler Impulse/Toddler execution
Update:
I hope someone's keeping track of all the pardoned January 6 coup participants. So far:
one has been shot dead by police: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/indiana-man-pardoned-jan-6-crimes-killed-traffic-stop-shooting-deputy-rcna189502
one has been rearrested for a firearms charge
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested
one is on the run accused of CSA
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-pardoned-jan-6-rioter-190927630.html
not to be confused with the other one who is also facing a CSA charge but is not on the run
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ncwd.117596/gov.uscourts.ncwd.117596.14.0.pdf
one has just been sentenced to 17 years because she killed a woman and crippled a man while drunk https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/what-i-did-was-ungodly-jan-6-rioter-who-caused-deadly-dui-crash-while-driving-drunk-on-wrong-side-of-highway-goes-from-pardon-to-prison/
and one pointed a shotgun at a couple of guys who were serving some sort of summons on her, and as a result got shot dead
https://mynorthwest.com/crime_blotter/woman-killed-in-west-seattle-shooting-was-being-served-documents/3993987
Oof. I was recently listening to this live performance of "Broken English" which is great.
Marianne Faithful covering a Jackson Frank song (I first learned about Jackson Frank when ogged posted about him. I think this is the first mention).
There is a construction that the media has been using for eight years now that has become increasingly ridiculous as time has gone on. Regarding Trump, it's saying that something is bad even by his standards. So today we see in Slate:
Trump's Plane Crash Press Conference Was Unbelievably Vile, Even for Him
Well, no, it wasn't. It was entirely believably vile. Other things he's said have not been stupid or crazy or incoherent "even for him." They have been that way entirely in character. Surely his response to Jan. 6 -- or his behavior on that day, for that matter -- was the last opportunity we had to say "even for him."
What could Trump do or say that would be so awful that people could properly consider it bad "even for him"?
What could Trump do or say that would be so awful that people could properly consider it bad "even for him"?
The n-word? Actually shooting somebody in the middle of Fifth Ave?
100.last: As sailsegY likes to say, yes he could come out in favor of slightly higher taxes on people making over a million dollars.
What could Trump do or say that would be so awful that people could properly consider it bad "even for him"?
Refuse to give a Palestinian-American a speaking slot at the next convention?
104. That sounds just about par for the course. If someone proposed a Palestinian American as a speaker at the next convention I would regard it as about 50/50 whether he would veto it. Of course he might not notice because he wasn't paying attention.