Great post.
So what do you propose we do?
-Magik
I think it's perfectly clear that he says we should support dissident media and internal opposition groups and not these Iranian exile types like the Monarchists and the MKO.
Thanks for sorting it out. I'm very hopeful for Iran, but I stopped making any serious effort to keep track of its's internal affairs on January 21, 1981. (And of course, even in 1981 I was too young to really make a serious effort.) That's unforgivable, I know.
Thanks for the cautionary notes. I'm very suspicious of Reza Pahlavi's motives. I just don't see how in any way can he be accepted by the Iranians in Iran as a legitimat leader when when he's not been on Iranian soil since the revolution. I think he should accept that the throne is gone for good, and find some other worthy cause to get behind, or better yet, get a real job.
I've always been suspicious of exile groups (a la the Monarchists or, in Iraq, the INA) vs. internal groups, but thanks for making the point here with some knowledge behind it rather than gut feeling.
Out of curiosity, are there any internal groups in particular that are decent and supported by the Iranian people? And how supported is the US, generally?
My husband and I are in Iran now and writing about our experiences here. From here, it is very difficult to say what the mood of the country is. One thing I can say for sure is that it is nothing like what I read before coming to Iran. Iran is much more complex and diverse than anything that ever gets presented. I hope for the best here, but I cannot read the future.
BTW, If you want to read our blog it is at www.viewfromiran.blogspot.com
Will there be an armed uprising? Are the Iranians capable of civil war to achieve their democracy or is their society as disfunctional as Iraq's? Will the current rulers use whatever means to remain in power. Do the militant mass have a structure from which to oppose the rulers? Good luck Iran.
the problem is that the opposition is not united, and they realy dont know what they need, so until such time it seems that the west can do very little except watch the situation unfold and wish the young students good luck. they have a very long way to go before they will see any change
I've been looking at a lot of the Iranian blogs recently and I've come to a conclusion. If the pro-democracy bloggers spent as much time trying to bring down the Khamenei regime as they did complaining about the monarchists, Michael Ledeen and Amir Taheri, they'd really be making some progress.
so how do we combine this blog based information sharing revolution with real action and change?
sustained and growing attention being paid to iran from within and without, will at the very least have the impact of letting the world know much more about what is happening with iran, and let iranians know that they have our support. but what would it take for there to be an end to this thuggish theocracy?
if this marathon of blog attention being focused on the subject of iran includes discussion of making this change happen and not only on spreading information about iran, i think we could see the change we are all hoping for much sooner than would otherwise happen.