You know, I've never been exit polled, or even seen an exit pollster. I feel a bit left out.
What issues would be a bad sign for Democrats? Seriously, I can't think of one. Maybe immigration?
There is no way I'd answer an exit poll.
All of those issues except corruption could cut either way.
2: Underappreciation of the God-like qualities of the current President of the United States?
2- Nope. The loons are spitting mad at the Republicans about that one, because of the Bush/Senate support for "amnesty".
I actually don't there are any issues that would be a bad sign for interests. Other than if a lot of people were saying their primary concern was their lingering disgust with the Lewinsky blowjob scandal. Maybe not even that.
True, although I'd say Iraq is a probable R-, D+. I guess what I meant is that I can't formulate a thought along the lines of "If they're talking about the economy, great! If it's about terrorism, we're screwed!"
I think 'terrorism' means R+, 'corruption' means D+, 'economy' means D+, and 'Iraq' means D+.
What makes you think terrorism means R+?
I would think that people who identify "Iraq" as the key issue are picking up the Democratic frame and people who identify "Terrorism" as the issue are picking up the Republican frame.
Also if anyone listed "respect for our troops" that would be a Republican issue.
Because Democrats are perceived to be weak on terror, and the Republicans polled at the exit polls have to give something as their reason for voting Republican, and being a manly man on terror's about all this administration has left. No one seriously wants to say Iraq is going well.
10: Usually has in the past. I'm not sure that it's still R+, but it's not a ridiculous guess.
I've never been exit polled, or even seen an exit pollster. I feel a bit left out.
I've never even gotten a summons for jury duty, and I've been registered to vote for 20 years. It pisses me off, to be honest.
Sure, okay, it has in the past. 12 is convincing - Republicans have to say something -- what else is there?
15: Buck just drew grand jury duty, and they ran wild. A whole bunch of ham sandwiches are walking the streets of NY unindicted on the basis of his bad influence.
have to agree with Cala that terrorism is still R+, despite all the evidence that the R's are hopeless on T.
I heard an interview on npr the other day with a young mother in Bucks Co. PA who was talking about how she is just terrified about how the islamic terrorists are going to get us. She watches tv all day, and if she turns off the tv for long, she just gets worried thinking there has been another attack.
It was a pretty stunning testament to how fucked up Fox News makes you (and I'd lay good money on it that's what she watches). Osama induced three quanta of terror into the American psyche. Fox has induced three hundred quanta of terror since then. Far more efficient terrorists, they are.
So: If someone has an irrationally distorted sense that terrorism is the biggest deal in the world, then there is a good chance they get their news from Fox. If they get their news from Fox, there's a good chance they think that Republicans are competent. Ergo, people saying terrorism is a big deal are more likely to support Republicans--the two forms of disconnection with reality are closely related.
12 is convincing - Republicans have to say something -- what else is there?
I don't think a lot of people who cite "moral values" or "traditional values" or "moral decay" or "family values" or "values" or "WWJD" are Democrats . Democrats have their own terms that express moral disapproval for Republican governance, like "warmongering" (this would be a subset of the "Iraq" category) and "monumental assloads of corruption".
Buck just drew grand jury duty, and they ran wild.
"they"?
Or 'privacy? rights? oh, those weren't important amendments, move along.'
If they get their news from Fox, there's a good chance they think that Republicans are competent.
I get all my news from Fox, and I don't have that impression at all. (Not that this disproves your "good chance" statement, which is surely correct, I'm just saying.)
I get all my news from Fox
For Gods' sake why?
I mean, its like hearing someone casually announce "I get all my dietary fiber from eating wood."
20: They=the grand jury. They're expected to compliantly indict everyone they're told to; while, in consideration of grand jury secrecy, I didn't get full details, Buck apparently stampeded the bunch of them into refusing a number of indictments.
23- it's fair and balanced, why else?
Honestly, I don't know why I do. I realize it may not always be the highest quality news source, but it's what I go to every single time. I like to watch O'Reilly claim straight-facedly that he's in the "no-spin zone." Bullshitting at that level is really something of an art form. I think that's the attraction.
I have a sneaking suspicion that when I was last called for jury duty, I wasn't selected because I scared the prosecuting attorney.
Did he also tell you that he saved a few kids from drowning on the way to jury duty, and that he never touched the blonde you guys met at the party last year?
yeah even though Ds were polling ahead on "who's better on the Terrorism issue, D or R?", the framing aspect and what you think is a bigger risk/more pressing will make people who self identify as "concerned about terrorism" as more likely to be GOPs.
I've pretty much stopped getting news from television at all. It's really just awful top to bottom.
30: Today's radio ads for the local news here are - I swear -
"First, our reporter goes undercover to snare an online teen predator!
Then, our reporter tells you about a sex offender in your town. How did he get there? Why is nobody doing anything?
And finally, the dog everybody loved...except the man who shot it in the face!"
It has just been pointed out to me that Huffpost is posting exit polls. I was, at first, exceedingly confused by the map coloration.
Raw Story has unconfirmed exit poll data showing the Democrats with six pickups. The Tradesports contract is already moving fast...
okay, stupidest cheap laugh I've had all day.
Teresa NH points to a page of palindromes ("do geese see god?"), of which my favorite was a variation on an old one:
A man, a plan, a butt tub: anal Panama!
28: Of course he touched her -- how else could he have saved her life by giving her mouth-to-mouth when she'd nearly drowned? I was so proud of him. (Although I still can't figure out how she came so close to drowning in an eighth floor apartment.)
35: I killed the brevity of my own joke specifically to keep you from making the blonde-was-one-of-the-drownees comeback, and you make it anyway? You fight dirty, LB.
LB can't help it if she's funnier than you, ogged.
Honestly, I don't know why I do.
I like to watch what Fox is up to. It's a form of "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer".
LB can't help it if she's funnier than you, ogged.
But she could try harder not to be, SJ.
3: I try to answer all political poll questions on some sort of random basis. If their numbers become sufficiently unreliable the pols will be forced to take positions on issues instead of dancing all around them as the numbers keep changing.
By the way, the Corner's reporting those numbers too, and I must say, panic can be highly entertaining sometimes.
Pretty off-topic: reading these comments on Jim Henley's site, I have to say I'm really glad libertarians don't matter in the real world, because these people are assholes.
Man, SO glad to see these poll numbers. I was ready to jump out a window after the thread this morning with all the horror stories from polling places. Allow me to say, for the first, and perhaps last, time ever, Come On Tennessee...(we even let little Peyton win one, how bout some get backs?)
Do not let exit polls raise your hopes above whatever they were pre exit poll. Remember 2004.
Do not let exit polls raise your hopes above whatever they were pre exit poll. Remember 2004.
They just got my hopes back up to where they were at the start of the day. After the morning thread, I was fearing something like +8H, +2S...
Do we know if these exit numbers are weighted or raw? Because part of the problem with the 2004 numbers, if I remember right, was that they weren't weighted, and exit polls tend to skew Democratic as it is.
I like watching Hannity sometimes but i don't think of myself as getting "news" its more like watching reality tv.
Probably raw, considering how early they were leaked.
The numbers are both cooked and raw.
re:43
Why? It seems like the majority of them voted for the Dem's and their was a good deal of castigation of those who didn't. Not as good as everyone voting a party ticket, but what do you want?
49: I think that members of the consortium got the information earlier in the day, and have been playing with the number is a locked room, until the embargo was lifted at 5:00 pm.
The numbers are both cooked and raw.
Yes, but the panic's juicy and delicious.
People are Google-mad and tetchy tonight. I've already gotten a hate-mail from something I posted less than 15 minutes ago. How's that for awesomely bloggy interactivity?
54: I just used the same page to look up NC 11, as that's where I grew up and I saw Taylor speak when he was running the first time (my reaction then: what a sleazeball). Only the very earliest results are in, but my initial reaction is that if Shuler is ahead in places like Rutherford and Yancey counties then Taylor is well and truly fucked and the Dem sweep is on. That may be my hopes unwisely outweighing my cynicism.
No, no, no, John. Bauerlein doesn't blog with me anymore. You can put away your viciousness and out-of-control anger.
the Virginia race is gonna make me climb the walls, going back and forth.
It looks like Chocola and the guy who's vying for Foley's seat are going down, tho'! The house races are so far (with little returns i admit) looking good...
the Virginia race is gonna make me climb the walls, going back and forth
It's close but it looks like Webb's doing pretty well so far in Southwest Virginia, which makes me optimistic.
Not only have I been summoned for jury duty twice, I got picked and made foreman, once. Take that, civic-duty-haters!
Kaufman, you got my email already?
I don't believe those numbers at all. Rhode island so stark? Improbable. We're trying not to get our hopes up here at the NYC drink-the-returns-center.
CNN has called 1 down, 14 to go in the House takeover (Ellsworth in Indiana, which was expected).
Did y'all write up the service newspapers' editorials asking for Rumsfeld's resignation? E. g., in such a way that I missed it?
and CNN called Menendez holds that scary NJ senate seat...
Hey kb at 34: You need to see this. It helps if you're familiar with the video for Bob Dylan's "Subterranean Homesick Blues," but in case you're not, that's on YouTube, too. (Biscuit conditional. Whatever.)
Now, back to our regularly scheduled nailbiting.
61 - You got my response, you "pussy-whipped limp-dicked Republican motherfucker"?
Wait -- CNN called it for Menendez already?
I never even saw any returns. They pulled back from an intereview with Frist to announce it
Huh, no. The Internets must be running slow tonight.
Did y'all write up the service newspapers' editorials asking for Rumsfeld's resignation?
Nope. My thinking was, 1) I don't feel like hearing that the Army Times is owned by Gannett and 2) Rumsfeld isn't going anywhere, no matter what.
That does it. I gotta go somewhere with TV. And drink.
Rhode island so stark? Improbable.
I don't know. I expect the numbers will tighten, but I've expected Whitehouse to win all along--most everyone has. In the past couple of weeks there's been talk of a swing toward Chafee, and I definitely got that feel driving around on the weekend. I saw many more Chafee signs than I expected, and significantly where he should have had them in the primary (Warwick, where he was mayor, and is a key city) and the southern suburbs. But I don't think Chafee ever sealed the deal with the state the way his old man did. Not entirely his fault; the times have changed. Anyway, I won't be surprised if he goes down by a small but definite margin. Sad, in a way, but necessary.
71 - I wonder why. Could it be...
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5
Shit, I've always used Ctrl + R. I could've been doing this twice as fast! F5 F5 F5 F5 F5!
Not that it's any surprise, but... Senator Bernie Sanders! Awesome.
74 is pretty much exactly how I feel about ol' Linc.
NPR says that white evangelicals said that corruption was an important issue for them.. and that 1/3 voted democratic.
Also, Dick Armey was on, and he predicted 20-25 seats would go to Dems. Dick. Frickin. Armey. (He did NOT sound happy, unsurprisingly.)