Indeed, if he had so-called "rational expectations", Saddam shouldn't have let the inspectors in (allowing the most official spying operation ever...), and disarmed to top it all. On the other hand, had he done that, he would be dealing with France, Russia, the UN and all the rest. His final option would have been to accept extradition, and to be seen as a coward by the Arab people, and probably die assassinated within a few years...
