I dunno, I thought the quote Drum pulled was pretty amusing. It's not that often you hear retired generals calling the President stupid.
Amusing in that "We're all gonna die" kind of way, sure. I don't know that anything in the roundtable is news, but hanging the label 'best case scenario' on it makes it kind of depressing.
I wish Bob Graham hadn't been laughed out of the 2004 Democratic primary so early.
Also, an alarming number of the experts were predicting the downfall of the Jordanian monarchy; it was in the "worst case scenarios" category, but the experts seemed fairly resigned to it as a very real possibility. Not that I'm all in favor of the Jordanian monarchy, but its fall would not exactly promote regional stability.
I think that the 655,000 estimate is excess mortality, not casualties.
It is excess mortality, but is that a sharp distinction? (He's certainly misspeaking in his use of 'casualties' -- he clearly means 'deaths only' rather than 'deaths and injuries'.)
Scheuer is a bit of an alarmist, though what he said isn't unreasonable.
If I may delurk for a moment, does anyone else think it's weird that all the experts are American, and more particularly, none of them are Iraqi?
Not that I'm saying they're wrong (Juan Cole is always worth listening to, I'm guessing the CIA guys - maybe not so much!), just if I was going to ask a bunch of experts about a country I'd want some of them to be from there. They might have agendas to push, but so does everyone.
On the wryer hand, maybe it was a bit hard getting the email through.
This comment is going to make me look like the worst kind of concern troll. But here goes anyway:
Isn't the surge going better than Henley, Yglesias and Ackerman predicted it would? Sectarian killings are down. More surprisingly, Sadr is cooperating. His party rejoined the government and he's permitting US troops into his enclaves.
I guess what I'm saying is that for the first time since 2003, there are signs that Iraq may stabilize.
Mark Kleiman seems to have registered this, but not Yglesias or Henley.
8: True, but it's a roundtable sponsored by an American magazine, and not one particularly noted for its international affairs coverage. I'm actually pretty impressed by the kinds of people they got to do it.
Isn't the surge going better than Henley, Yglesias and Ackerman predicted it would?
Didn't everyone think it would get peaceful while the various Iraqi factions waited us out? That's my recollection; I'd be surprised if Henley didn't say that, as he's made similar points before. And that's the general in RS's description.
I don't think this changes anything.
Actually, what many people said is that violence would lessen somewhat *as it has every year at this time*, surge or no surge, and that people would mistake that for progress, rather than the standard seasonal fluctuation.
teo, you're right enough, it just glares out at me.
Rolling Stone seems to have been getting way better with their political coverage lately, which is great, reviving a tradition that's been lost over the last couple of decades.
Matt Taibbi has been doing fantastic stuff for Rolling Stone (check out his column, "The Low Post"). He's the new Hunter S. Thompson, only better cause he's young and not ruined.
He's the new Hunter S. Thompson, only better
If Taibbi wants to be as awesome as Thompson, he need to get out and shoot some propane tanks.
13 and 14 get it right. Taibbi is one of maybe four political writers in the English language who have a distinctive style, as far as I can tell.
Also, it does seem like the Iraqis in the affected areas are happy with the surge's first few weeks, but the "waiting us out" issue has not been put to rest at all. More heartening to me is the fact that some influential mullahs are taking sides against their own sects' death squads and possibly coming close to maybe almost forming non-sectarian political alliances of the type that have hitherto existed only in Bush's imagination.
Didn't everyone think it would get peaceful while the various Iraqi factions waited us out?
Gilliard and others keep pointing it out, that when we deploy a bunch of guys in this fashion and the opposition melts away, it's a sign of intelligence and discipline, not that everyone was vaporized by the giant swinging cocks as we traveled through.
Hey, let's all respond to the concern troll!
Man, the weather is FUCKING AWESOME today. The absolute most perfect weather possible.
I actually know very few annoyingly cheerful people. Maybe it's my destiny to become that person, despite my monotonous voice. Maybe it'll happen if I have a child.
Kotsko, you troll, the weather in Chicago is never perfect; it's always too humid.
More heartening to me is the fact that some influential mullahs are taking sides against their own sects' death squads and possibly coming close to maybe almost forming non-sectarian political alliances of the type that have hitherto existed only in Bush's imagination.
I don't think that's going to matter either. There's always some less popular mullah willing to attack the one above him as complacent and harmful to his own people's interest.
I've been pretty cheerful for the past few days, though it's starting to wear off a bit. I can't really judge how annoying it is.
You're right -- it is too humid.
Thanks for ruining my day, douche-cock.
In a not-actually-democratic society like today's Iraq, people are loyal to the forces that bring them security. If there was a force like that that wasn't a sectarian death squad, like for example the Iraqi police force that exists in Bush's mind (rather than the one that currently consists of Shiite death squads), it would inspire some loyalty, which could lead to support for non-sectarian political parties.
This all depends on people's security, though. Look at how fast people fell back into supporting Hezbollah after Israel started destroying parts of Lebanon and the secular government seemed powerless.
22: If you were ever going to find a life partner, it would have happened at this convention, and it didn't! Never again will people look up to you as such a godlike figure! Never again will women want you and men want to be you! Your life has peaked, LOL!
If there was a force like that that wasn't a sectarian death squad, like for example the Iraqi police force that exists in Bush's mind (rather than the one that currently consists of Shiite death squads), it would inspire some loyalty, which could lead to support for non-sectarian political parties.
Only if the people felt that it could be trusted over the long term, even after individual bad actors, inevitable tragic mistakes, etc. See, e.g., the long troubled history of the African-Americans and various police forces.
25: Remind me not to piss you off. Them words'r dangerous.
(Interestingly, in the relevant dialect of English, I believe "them ... are" is actually ungrammatical, that you have to have either "those ... are" or "them ... is".)
Plug for spackerman's dispatch today at TAPPED about the Iraqi police.
Maybe watching some football would cheer you up.
John Waters is on The Daily Show, and is speaking for Emerson's no-relationship policy. (I think indeed that he may be Emerson.)
31: Perhaps the most jarring sentence in that article is "Mr. Wenzel receives a monthly N.F.L. pension of $925."
OT, except that maybe the end of civilization doesn't seem so outlandish, but they're showing this movie for PBS pledge week. More here.
6 - It depends what Scheuer means exactly. It's a sharp distinction in that the Lancet study was estimating the change in death rates. I assume Scheuer means deaths by violence.
31: Recently, I watched a Friday Night Fights where the guest in the studio with the announcer was Iran Barkley, who had held pieces of the middleweight, super middleweight, and light heavyweight titles during the late 80s and early 90s. If you paid attention at all to boxing back then, you know who he is. This was an electrifying guy I had watched in his prime taking out Thomas Hearns twice, seen interviews with over the years, etc. And while he was still lucid, he was slow. Talked slowly, responded slowly, seemed to take a while to process questions.
I was glad to see him getting work, but it was sad to watch, all the same. And he's in good shape compared to the guys in that article.
Please don't make me feel bad about watching pro football. There are so few sports left for me to enjoy.
Remember the last days of the Vietnam war? People clinging to copters, desperation, chaos? That is what our soldiers may experience in the last days of Iraq.
Last night, I received the last call a father would want. "Dad, I am leaving earlier than expected." My daughter telling me that she deploys to Iraq within the month. The worst of all possible deployments.
A strengthened Al Qaeda? Bush, in his infinite stupidity, delivered the best possible training ground for terrorists when he started this misadventure. Then he accuses the loyal opposition of aiding and abetting terrorism for not supporting his war. Truth is: I have met the enemy. He is not a terrorist. He is our own incompetent administration.
Sorry to hear about your daughter, swampcracker. That really sucks.
Oh man. That must be horrible to hear. I wish her (and you) the best.
Jesus, swampcracker. I'm sorry. All good mojo to your daughter for a safe deployment.
Agree with 40. Best wishes to both of you.
All the best to you and especially to your daughter, swampcracker.
Thank you, everyone. This too shall pass.
Let us hope, and best of luck to your daughter and you in the meantime.
Man that sucks. Still, remember the odds remain vastly in favor of her coming home fine. Best of luck to her.
Good luck to you, her and everybody. Doesn't sound like they're going to call off the surge early.
Swampcracker; saddened to hear that. Best luck to you both.
38 - 49: Again, please accept my thanks.
Last night, I was kinda tired and disheartened with all the bad news when I left this comment (#38). Better words always come later when trying to fall asleep. I should have said: "I have met the enemy. He is not a Sunni, nor a Shiite, nor Iraqi, nor Iranian. The enemy is our own incompetent administration."
After 6 years, I think the only accomplishment to be claimed by Bush/Cheney is the polarization and radicalization of people. Even in our own hemisphere, our country is reviled. I means I'll have to become more politically engaged ... for change.
As so many have said before me (but I mean it wholeheartedly nonetheless), sorry to hear that news, swampcracker, and best wishes are being sent your and your daughter's way.
Best wishes and best of luck to your daughter, Swampcracker. And you, take care. Write her a little something every day if you can.