The worst part is, I don't have any easy way to watch it. First, I'm still at school. Second, it's blocked on NPR.
Do I have to watch this debate? I mean, I guess so.
I'm kind of curious too. Maybe we're in for a total Hillary meltdown.
Sorry. Got the Piano Trio in B-Flat Maj Op 11 to listen to and Hippolyte Taine to read. Can't spare the time for a debate.
Oh, cool. Thanks for the reminder, now I can listen via cspan online.
(Also the post wasn't sexist, but 4 was.)
Implying that women are powered by nuclear energy is sexist?
(Also the post wasn't sexist, but 4 was.)
Don't be retarded.
If I were powered by nuclear energy, Tweety, I'd so totally nuke you.
Maybe we're in for a total Hillary meltdown.
Gawd, that's my nightmare. Better that she shoots him.
9: settle down and boil me some water.
Don't be retarded.
Don't be differently-abled-ist.
Speaking of boiling water, how long is this stupid debate supposed to be one? B/c at some point I'm going to have to cook dinner.
Ooh, today is Barbara Jordan's bday? Cool.
Oh, boo on not meeting with Raul Castro.
Insert the carbon rods into Hillary to prevent a meltdown!
Erm.
I am not watching any debates.
I love the references to Kennedy to back up their points about how to deal with Cuba.
Hmm...Clinton is expressing her disagreement with Obama in a fairly moderate way...
Not going negative, then?
People watch the Superbowl, for chrissake.
Not going negative, then?
Give it time, give it time.
how long is this stupid debate supposed to be one
For its entirety, I would think.
Though it would be great if it spontaneously turned into a dance-off.
If Obama really does succeed in getting some reforms to the business tax code passed (his campaign site talks about this too), that would be amazing.
I just can't bring myself to watch debates.
Tomorrow morning, however, I will be sitting at 3 separate computers waiting online to buy Cubs tickets.
I'm funny that way.
People watch the Superbowl, for chrissake.
I didn't.
20: Yeah, but they reward you for that with commercials.
Keeping it boring is the thing to do for Obama, I guess. Frontrunner can't win a debate, they can only lose. If it's mind-numbingly dull, he keeps momentum on his side.
*Totally* racist.
I didn't say a dunking contest, B.
30 - Superbowl commercials pretty much suck at this point. There wasn't a single worthwhile one this year.
The golden days were during the dot com boom, when any pair of stoners with basic computer knowledge could afford to buy a superbowl commercial. Ever since the demise of pets.com, it's been all downhill.
32: Dunking would be sexist, not racist.
how long is this stupid debate supposed to be one
Ommmmmmmmm
Hillary's doing well, but one wonders if it'll be enough.
38 - Enough to reverse Obama's momentum and win her massive victories in Ohio and Texas? Doubtful
Dunking would be sexist, not racist.
I've seen black women dunk (Tarheels, baby!). Not one white woman ever.
The moderator with ovaries has nice legs.
She's coming on lively and strong. Her Presidency is slipping away...
Great, there's finally a debate open thread for a debate, and once again, I'm waiting for the debate to air on NPR, on a two-hour delay. (gggooooobama!)
Superbowl commercials pretty much suck at this point. There wasn't a single worthwhile one this year.
Yeah, I didn't actually watch this year, so I have to take your word for that.
40: I was implying that dunking was a euphemism. Keep up with me here, slowpoke.
Those of you who want the debate on npr, try it on Cspan. Here's the audio feed.
The border fence question is soooo interesting politically. Hillary's trying to finesse it...
Until comment 40, I was reading 'dunking contest' as something to do with water. As in, they'd each be sitting on dunking stools facing each other and throwing balls at the target to dunk the other one.
Keep up with me here, slowpoke.
Don't make me dunk on you, lady.
Man, it is boring. I may have to wait for subsequent reporting to tell me whether either candidate managed to articulate a substantial difference between the two of them. Between their policy proposals, that is. Right now it appears to be a likeability contest. Also judging the quality of the moderators' legs.
They're both playing both sides of the border fence. Impressive bullshit powers!
JM, did you notice 44? You can actually *see* it on CNN.com. I've switched over. CNN's feed is harder to listen to, though, so I'm going to switch back when I go start dinner.
50: That's because you're a girl. See? I was right about Apo being sexist.
Until comment 40, I was reading 'dunking contest' as something to do with water.
Need some way to find out which one's a witch.
50: dunk tank dance off debate-a-thon!
I've listened to almost all the debates on the radio so far, why watch it now? Also, I too should be cooking dinner.
54: I really think (from Obama's website and his comments in this debate) that it's pretty important to him to look at the business tax code; that's at least one difference.
56: I thought it was my rural country fair roots.
54: yeah, nobody's attacking despite being invited to do so. Obama's ahead anyway and Clinton has likely concluded that attacking doesn't really help.
41 - Campbell Brown is indeed hot.
56 - Yea! Somebody listened to me.
The question about becoming a bilingual nation is interesting. Not the kind of question you'd get in a debate not sponsored by Univision, I think.
I was right about Apo being sexist.
Sure, but that's a no-brainer. You have to correctly identify why.
Campbell Brown is a cutie with the VU banana tattooed on her ankle. She is, however, married to a wingnut operative. This is problematic. Is her husband RNC employed right now, or not? He was CPA employed for a while.
63: Yeah, good question. They both had lame answers. How cool would it be to have someone come out for making the US bilingual?
64: I'll have you know I have a PhD!!! Sexist!!!
I really think (from Obama's website and his comments in this debate) that it's pretty important to him to look at the business tax code; that's at least one difference.
Nahhh. He's highlighting it, but it's been a standard Democratic talking point for a number of campaigns for a while, and before that around DC. There really is a pretty unifed Democratic agenda right now, which is actually a strength. There would be differences in what they'd do, but at the level of generality you get in the campaign they are too small to be spotted.
Biggest difference I've seen is that Clinton's foreclosure/mortgage plan is much more radical than Obama's. Surprised she didn't highlight the difference. But lots of economists have questioned her plan.
66 - Wikipedia suggests he's working as a Fox News analyst and for his own consulting firm.
Oh good, a political thread. Can this article about names that include punctuation marks possibly be true?
Even if the computer system is sophisticated enough to welcome an O'Brien or Al-Kurd, the name must be stored in the database, where a hyphen or apostrophe is often mistaken for a piece of computer code, corrupting the system.
That's what happened during the Michigan caucus in 2004, when thousands of O'Connors, Al-Husseins, Van Kemps and others who went to the polls didn't have their votes counted.
"It was a real slapped-together computer system the party put together and a lot of people were left out who were registered to vote, it was a real pity," said Michigan political consultant Mark Grebner.
Does anybody really hate the emo relief worker video conference ad? That guy is so annoying.
How cool would it be to have someone come out for making the US bilingual?
yuk.
Now, they're going to try to make them fight.
LOL, the questioner is channelling Ogged.
70: fuck those mick towelhead uh... tulip eaters?
Man, she's resolutely avoiding going after him.
Wow, she's not going to go negative. Her polling shows her doing better? Shows it's not going to help anyway? They're counting on delegate shenanigans?
Wow, Hillary's doing a great job of answering this question in a classy but pointed way. Great job.
77, 78: She slipped in the knife with those last few sentences.
That turned a bit negative at the end.
Um, yes, Tweety, I think that's the general problem. How is it, mumble-mumble decades after we started storing people's names in computers, that programmers (or their bosses or clients) don't view this as a problem big enough to care about?
As a Punctuated American, I demand an answer!
My pal the superdelegate is officially for Obama now.
70, one of the front page posters would be a good person to ask about that. I'm not going to name names, but it starts with 'B' and ends with 'cks'.
It's really interesting that they're both struggling to define what's different about them.
82: blame Microsoft. Okay, just kidding, blame the programmers. Okay, just kidding, blame the people who didn't allocate enough time or money to build the Michigan voter registration system.
Aw, fuck it. Blame the victim!
Obama loses the w-lfs-n vote by saying "the reason is because."
Great exchange. Like to see Hillary get a chance to respond.
I like how Obama deflected the "Obama supporters are all delusional googly-eyed idealists" attacks.
ugh, Hillary must hate this plagiarism junk. That stuff is for surrogates, bad to have it directly connected to the candidate. Change the subject immediately, Hill!
Pending Clinton's response, Obama rocks the plagiarism question.
90: well you would, Cadre 793829.
Jeezus. Hillary brings up that plagiarism crapulence and finishes with just "How do you respond?" like a press conference bottom-feeder.
I gotta say, his explanation about why his inspirational ability *matters* is a really good one.
70.---Oh lovely. Yet another reason for my honey to change his last name from "ahmadi-tehrani" to "ahmaditehrani."*
*Some names may have been changed.
Wow, she's not going to go negative.
I like to think that both candidates are thinking more broadly, that a unified Democratic front is better for the country in the long run (in the general), regardless of who the ultimate Dem candidate is. Of course, I'm idealistic.
Jesus, I can't believe Hillary personally behind that plagiarism charge. So dumb.
The health care difference is substantial, now she's highlighting the mortgage plan differences too. That's better.
98: Yeah, she does. Her voice fell apart a while ago. Reminds me of when Bill was running.
95: Did Clinton bring up the plagiarism thing? I thought that was the questioner. (A problem with listening and cooking at the same time.)
101: Disagreed--I think she was trapped for a moment by the plagiarism question, knew she couldn't say "I never said that", but changed the subject quickly back to "differences between us" rather nicely.
Did Clinton bring up the plagiarism thing? I thought that was the questioner.
questioner brought it up, but Hillary went along with it by repeating the plagiarism criticism.
That was his best answer on health care so far during the debates.
103 - the line about xeroxing was surely unnecessary.
103 - the line about xeroxing was surely unnecessary.
Yup, and sounded rehearsed and made her look bad.
Clinton just crashed and burned.
Obama kicked ass on the health care question. Turning to her mismanagement of the 1994 health care effort to reinforce his basic themes was just brilliant. With the added benefit of being sort of true. And right before the commercial break so she can't respond!
Obama rocked pretty hard in that segment, I think.
107: It sounded like the kind of thing one says when caught by surprise. She was trying to get away from the plagiarism issue for the reasons PGD gave in 91, I think.
110: Why do you say that? B/c of the plagiarism thing juxtaposed with Obama's very good remarks about health care?
Obama rocked the plagiarism question and the health care question, and Clinton got booed.
I like that there are standing ovations after every commercial. I don't remember the Republicans doing that.
Clinton just contrasted "philosophical" with "substantive." Say goodbye to the academic philosopher vote, lady.
Were they booing her, or booing Obama briefly interrupting her? I couldn't tell. (I also couldn't hear what he said.)
That's two shout outs by Clinton to John Edwards in her last two responses.
Obama was fucking ready for health care tonight. Sweet sweetness.
117: so it's w-lfs-n for McCain, now? Wouldn't'a thunk it.
119: Ah. Well, that explains why she's not going negative in the debate, then, doesn't it?
The general quality with these two is just so high. Makes you proud to be a Democrat.
Obama is being a little demagogic on the penalty issue -- all you need to do with people who don't purchase is charge them with the cost plus ten percent and then give them health insurance.
This is an important set of issues and a very complex set of tradeoffs.
Awesome how they're just ignoring the moderators.
Obama is wrong on healthcare, but he sure sells it well. Hillary wrong on plagiarism, and she looks like a nitwit when she tries to sell that argument.
(Am I missing something, or does the CSpan radio page not have a link for Mac users?)
Mm, I'm finding that the hair-splitting about requiring *parents* to get health care for kids, but not requiring adults to do it for themselves seems weak to me.
Do you know what? Clinton's statements there about why she says Obama's not ready are the clearest indicator of the difference between them: her sense of America as besieged, and his sense that it really isn't.
127: This link is working just fine on my Powerbook. I'm using Firefox, though; dunno if that makes a difference. Don't see why it would.
Yep. And boy is her attitude dangerous.
131: Yeah, that's why I pointed to that particular moment--it did a lot better job than all the "but she voted for the war!!" arguments of showing that difference, to me.
her sense of America as besieged, and his sense that it really isn't.
she definitely has a sense of herself as besieged. I think if she'd seen America as besieged she would have shown more urgency in opposing the Iraq war earlier.
So far: she's so good, he's just a little better.
I think this is the best I've seen Obama deploy his argument regarding his 2002 anti-war position.
she definitely has a sense of herself as besieged.
Yeah. Which is really too bad, because it doesn't help her.
I think if she'd seen America as besieged she would have shown more urgency in opposing the Iraq war earlier.
Disagreed. Especially if you factor in her own defensiveness about her original vote.
So far: she's so good, he's just a little better.
I think that's what it boils down to, yep.
Perfect Iraq answer by Obama. Tactical steps are fine but the strategy is wrong, segue to the opportunity costs of the war. He's just so good.
Obama's opportunity-cost argument re: Iraq is a powerful one. I don't think I've heard him make it so clearly as I have tonight.
On the surge: "This is a tactical victory imposed on a huge strategic blunder."
Perfect.
Look how happy the audience is at the great choice they have.
Can I also say that the questions in this debate are good ones?
Somebody needs to point out that earmarks are tiny compared to the waste involved in the tax cuts and the Iraq war.
Obama's really good at developing his schtick. I think he hasn't even peaked yet. If Clinton has a tactical problem, it's that she peaked way too early, and although she's still doing well, people aren't hearing as much good new stuff from her at this point in the process. It's hard to get excited about a candidate who doesn't have a lot of room to grow. McCain has that problem too; he peaked in 2000.
Whoops, pwned by Hillary.
She should have added a number -- about $3 billion annually in earmarks vs. hundreds of billion for tax cuts for the wealthy and Iraq spending.
134:I told ya I thought he was gradually intensifying his anti-war argument...I think this is going to be the centerpiece of the general:bad war + bad economy = opportunity cost + withdraw now
It is so much better than simple "peace candidate"
Okay, her getting back to the tax cuts thing is what's starting to bug me about the Clinton campaign. It seems like she has a few issues--including the mortgages and foreclosures thing--that are designed to appeal, but not a lot in the way of larger vision or pro-active *new* ideas.
Can I also say that the questions in this debate are good ones?
I was ridiculed when I said this before, but I'll say it again: I think he ought to offer her the vice presidency, and I think she ought to take it.
her getting back to the tax cuts thing is what's starting to bug me about the Clinton campaign. It seems like she has a few issues--including the mortgages and foreclosures thing--that are designed to appeal, but not a lot in the way of larger vision or pro-active *new* ideas.
New ideas are overrated. There are a couple of big old ideas we really need now. The Bush tax cuts are huge -- there's enough money in those tax cuts to plug the Social Security funding gap plus do health care reform plus probably have a little left over.
Get out of Iraq successfully, make tax policy rational, do something on health care and global warming, and address the financial crisis with mortgages and bad debt would make the next presidency one of the most successful ever. All old ideas, but who needs anything else?
How come no one's mentioned Hillary's futuristic space collar?
How come no one's mentioned Hillary's futuristic space collar?
Because that would be superficial.
Who says Hillary can't be inspiring?
Because that would be superficial.
Fair point. That was a pretty good answer.
All old ideas, but who needs anything else?
Right, except people vote because of narrative structures. And Obama is really good at pulling actual policy issues into the narrative of his campaign. He's preventing the narrative from being built around his personality as much as is possible by repeatedly telling a story about the need for "new" ideas.
How come no one's mentioned the tiny tim space to the left at their desk? Did they build it before Iowa?
With Hillary, the narrative about her personality is in conflict with the stasis of her message about policy positions.
That sure sounded like a concession speech.
166: And a very graceful one. I repeat 154.
And, to make another contrarian but seemingly obvious point: Hillary's daughter is hott !
Even if you like Obama better, the level of vituperation directed against Hillary has been unfair and sexist. She's certainly flawed like all politicians -- like everyone -- but the caricature of her doesn't have much to do with her. It's like all the vicious poison in politics of the last fifteen years has focused and centered on her somehow.
160, 165: Hillary and Obama have basically the *same* policy positions. There is a unified Democratic agenda. That's precisely why the campaign has focused more on the style and implementation differences between the two. Obama isn't saying he has new policy ideas, but that he will use a new way to make policy ideas happen.
He even said it the other night after the Wisconsin primary -- "The problem isn't that there aren't good ideas, the problem is that Washington is where new ideas go to die".
160 see 155
New ideas or old? We'll see in a year from April.
I'm not saying they actually are new or different ideas. I'm just saying he's really good at responding to the narrative of his personality by using it to develop the way he talks about policy, to make it look fresh each time he speaks.
Yeah, 169 to the world.
Hillary's closing statement made me verklempt. Her story is so wrapped up with our national political story, there's part of me that doesn't want it to end now. She's been so unfairly demonized. I want the soap opera to conclude with her triumphant over her enemies, as President. That would be the right and fitting thing if it were a novel.
The novel wouldn't have a charismatic white knight emerging to stop her right before she reaches the mountaintop. So strange.
This novel doesn't have a charismatic white knight.
(Oh, like you weren't thinking it.)
174: Absolutely. 100 percent correct.
154 and 167: I'm not ridiculing you, but that's a ridiculous idea on about sixteen levels starting with: by all acounts, they don't like each other. Move from there to: why would President Obama want Bill Clinton maintaining any claim to leadership of the Democratic Party. And then add: I can think of nothing that energizes the Republican base in this election other than having Hillary somewhere on the ticket. Plus there's more.
either one would be so much better than McCain.
155: True, but it's still a problem in terms of her appeal, I think.
I think they're both great candidaes, and that Clinton--and it's a real pity--has been beaten down by her history to the point where she just doesn't come across, as a politician, as well as she ought. It's the flip side of her "experience" argument.
But she was great tonight. And in the last debate. A total master of policy. As has been said before, she'll be a great Senate majority leader once freed from the shackles of presidential ambition.
177: I absolutely hate to say it, because it's so very "aw, honey, you're runner up, and that's something," but I do in fact hope that, if she doesn't get the nod and Obama does get the presidency, that she stays in the Senate and pushes hard on some of the issues she's made central to her presidential campaign.
Yeah, I think her history is actually a strength. It's helped her bond to the public. I don't think this primary has been about her weakness, but about Obama's strength. He's just a rare and charismatic political natural.
I agree with Ari. You should not have someone with such a significant independent power base in the VP's office. If Obama wins the nomination, and he wins the general, then he's going to fuck up--a lot--as President. They all do. But you can't have someone many would have preferred in the number two position on those occasions. Same reason Obama shouldn't have Gore as VP.
It's always the economy.
The "opportunity costs" narrative (phrased in less jargon, maybe dependent on exogenous events) is a way to run against the war, but also a safely ambiguous way to frame a radical resource reapportionment after January...a radical reduction in defense spending. Do we need that new fighter? Don't answer during the campaign, just boilerplate about security and "opportunity costs"
It may be a stealth "run to the left" in the general. If it works, you might have a re-alignment.
The transition of America to neo-Sweden will be insanely expensive, economically and politically. Who pays the costs will determine who rules after.
Trading Hillary for Reid could be a winner. She's too centrist, but (I think) tougher than Reid. Reid has baggage, too.
That would be the right and fitting thing if it were a novel.
OTOH, in the novel, she would have been on the right side of the major issue at the heart of the novel.
And it's still not over. People keep counting chickens.
177: I'm not ridiculing you, but that's a ridiculous idea
Oh, well in that case ...
When is the last time you've seen a long, tough campaign where two candidates were this simpatico?
As for Bill Clinton, the idea that Obama's candidacy is a repudiation of Bill Clinton is simply incorrect. And the idea that Bill Clinton can't play second fiddle has been proven false by his role in Hillary's campaign.
As far as energizing the Republican base, you are dreaming if you think that nominating a black liberal Democrat won't do that. But the Republican base is demoralized, regardless. The key is energizing the Democratic base, and the rest o America, and there are a lot of people who really like Hillary, and even the media are going to be compelled to admit that before it's all over.
187 is completely right. About counting chickens, that is. It's pretty easy to map out her comeback, even given the disarray in her campaign. All it takes is two big(ish) wins in OH and TX, and she'll say: "See, I told you all along that this was what we'd do." Then PA -- Pittsburgh and Philly with Alabama (minus the huge black population) in the middle -- will really matter. And then we're headed into the convention. Sorry, Apo, I forgot the quick stop in NC. Regardless, for the first time, odds she's gonna lose. But still: no counting of chickens.
188: The idea that Bill can't play second fiddle has been *entirely* proven by Hillary's campaign.
a black liberal Democrat
Don't forget Muslim.
It's pretty easy to map out her comeback
183:Charisma is mostly something one is born with, but is dependent on the mood and composition of the audience. Under different objective conditions, McCain would be the charismatic candidate.
And for those who have charisma, the use and application of charisma is very calculated. Like a fine stage actor or stand-up comedian or jazz soloist, the spontaneity comes from massive prep.
Obama is very smart and cold as ice. I like that.
(continued)
It really isn't, though. She'd have to win all the remaining contests by the kinds of margins Obama has rolled up elsewhere. Mathematically possible, but not real world possible.
When is the last time you've seen a long, tough campaign where two candidates were this simpatico?
Ideologically, right? Who cares? If not HRC, I assume he would pick one the other million Democrats that broadly agrees with him.
And the idea that Bill Clinton can't play second fiddle has been proven false by his role in Hillary's campaign.
Um, what? Cripes, the story about Maggie Williams made clear that one of her strengths was that she had ties to both the HRC camp and the WJC camp that had been bitching during the campaign.
Under different objective conditions, McCain would be the charismatic candidate.
Like a debate held in a Boca Raton retirement home, let's say.
She'd have to win all the remaining contests by the kinds of margins Obama has rolled up elsewhere. Mathematically possible, but not real world possible.
Wait till Michelle Obama gives her dramatic reading from Soul on Ice.
196:Like multiple domestic terrorist attacks where the "strong daddy" is comforting
196: Oh not likely. I can think of like 7 more feisty and entertaining oldsters in Boca off the top of my head. Trust me, bubeleh.
194: Dude, stop counting chickens! But yes, it's a hard road.
You should not have someone with such a significant independent power base in the VP's office.
This is not a foolish view, but it flies in the face of conventional thinking about VP candidates. Every conventional VP argument is about what that VP adds, independently, to the ticket. John Edwards allegedly added Southern credibility to Kerry's ticket, and Lieberman added whatever the fuck non-Goreness Gore was looking for on that ticket.
HW Bush, Mondale, Cheney, Agnew and Johnson all represented important wings of their parties that allegedly weren't represented at the top of the ticket. This is also true of all of the recent losign VP candidates.
Gore was an exception as Clinton's VP choice. He really was redundant.
I argue that Hillary as VP has the message-reinforcing benefits that Gore's vice presidency had, along with the independent-power benefits that almost every other VP candidate had.
You know, I like them both, but I think an Obama/Clinton candidate would really be dumb, actually. I, personally, would love it, but it doesn't seem to gain any voters who wouldn't also vote for Obama/anyone else.
Clinton is over.
Both Obama and McCain are now running the general campaign. Both are taking risky, no compromise approaches. Obama running "butter-not-guns" is gambling, and I don't know how he turns on an "Event"
I wish we had a different President.
Johnson was the only VP in the modern era who had power even remotely comparable to Bill Clinton/the Clintons. And Johnson had never been president. Still, he was a giant pain in Kennedy's ass and a choice much regretted by JFK once he was in office.
Hillary's closing statement made me verklempt. Her story is so wrapped up with our national political story, there's part of me that doesn't want it to end now. She's been so unfairly demonized. I want the soap opera to conclude with her triumphant over her enemies, as President. That would be the right and fitting thing if it were a novel.
Definitely. If we were a nation of 50,000 people it might even work.
Cheney was a minder, and is the single best reason for Obama not to pick someone with an independent power base, and someone who may well be perceived as the "grown up." Unless you liked the last eight years.
Assuming that Obama is the nominee, the VP has to be someone consistent with the rhetoric of change. That's not Clinton.
201: The conventional wisdom is that you want someone who can deliver a state or region that you couldn't win, not a competing power base. What would Clinton add to an Obama ticket that he wouldn't otherwise have? She has good policies, but she's been running on a message of 'bring back the 90s competence' and he's running on change. He needs someone whose message isn't contradictory.
The conventional wisdom is that you want someone who can deliver a state or region that you couldn't win, not a competing power base.
That's the CW, but I have yet to see it actually pan out.
207: I agree, if Obama/HRC picks Cheney as VP s/he's making a mistake.
208:Edwards for the white males? JFK thought he needed a Southerner.
The conventional wisdom is that you want someone who can deliver a state or region that you couldn't win, not a competing power base.
Yeah, I think that is the conventional rule of balancing the ticket, but I don't think Obama should do it. Pick a woman, lock in the fucking white female vote, and wreck the fuck out of the Republicans for the rest of my life. If HRC is/was going to pull white women across the line from the Republicans, you can't tell me Sebelius won't.
JFK thought he needed a Southerner.
And then they shot him out in your neck of the woods.
213:Sebelius isn't ideological change.
I think you're looking for somebody who could possibly flip a large purple state, which makes me think Ohio and Virginia.
215:top of the ticket sucked. Nothing against Kerry, but a Nor'eastener need not apply.
Obama needs an actual Muslim. You know, for contrast.
So who the fuck would appeal to Ohio or Virginia??
The idea of balancing the ticket never works. And by "never works" I mean "always seems logical but as soon as someone does it we forget why it seemed logical".
What you want to do is reinforce whatever your narrative is. Not with someone just like you, but with someone who is an example of the sort of person you are going to be looking for to give you advice.
220: The governor of Ohio and/or Virginia.
Hell, go got it. Another progressive, a black or Hispanic woman from the South or Southwest. Lock up Florida.
I seriously cannot imagine a Democrat winning Kansas. Even with Sebelius as VP.
Ted Strickland is a pastor. I'd say "He would be a good choice", but I don't know anything else about him. I keep thinking he's a great progressive but then I realize I'm thinking of Ohio's new senator, not governor.
I seriously cannot imagine a Democrat winning Kansas. Even with Sebelius as VP.
I just don't get this. She just won there. Twice.
Elaine Holmes Norton. You heard it here first.
Ron Dellums blew his shot at VP by endorsing HRC.
I do not want the possibility of Sebelius becoming President. Sorry.
I just don't get this. She just won there. Twice.
There are places where state and national elections turn out very differently.
213: Right, I don't have a problem with him picking a woman, should he get the nomination, but Clinton paradoxically is too good. She's presidential material, not second fiddle.
What's Sistah Soulja doing these days?
There are places where state and national elections turn out very differently.
For the same person, in such close temporal proximity?
North Carolina
2000 Bush wins 56% to 43%
2004 Bush wins 56% to 44%
That's the kind of big swing a good VP candidate can make in his home state.
Kansas went for Bush by 22 percent in 2004, SCMT.
237: Mark Warner is worth more to the Dems as a second Democratic Senator from Virginia (which he will almost certainly become) than he is as a Vice Presidential candidate. The same criterion rules out any Democratic Senator whose replacement would be appointed by a Republican Governor (sorry, Chris Dodd).
Yeah, Sebelius is very popular in Kansas. She might very well help carry that state. Plus she completely rocks.
Tim Kaine seems like a real possibility. He was an early and enthusiastic supporter. He speaks Spanish. He could put Virginia in play.
I know next to nothing about his positions, though.
I do not want the possibility of Sebelius becoming President. Sorry.
Your best shot at Sweden is, on a bet, to get what amounts to a women's party to form. Eggs, omelette.
240: FUCK! That's Apo's fault. I want a woman candidate, or I want Jesus. Warner leaves me cold.
Alabama would go Democratic before Kansas would. You people are nuts.
238: Cynthia McKinney
Right in your fucking face pink boy!
I'd actually love to see Clinton willing to take a VP role to an Obama presidency. Call it a combined power base. In terms of a ticket that stands a better chance of winning the general against McCain? If we think that McCain's strength among swing voters is his foreign policy chops, a VP to balance Obama's alleged weakness there makes sense. But if McCain's strength lies elsewhere (where? trustworthiness? whiteness? conservatism in general?), I suppose the conventional wisdom, a balanced ticket, is at least arguable.
Of course Hillary seems quite unlikely to share a seat with Obama.
Colin Powell?
C'mon, let's show a little forgiveness here, a New Politics of bygones be. Good soldier, him.
242: Sebelius might be good. Forget Kansas though, she helps more nationally and cements some closer midwestern states.
Of course Hillary seems quite unlikely to share a seat with Obama.
That's enough about Hillary's fat ass, sexist.
Maybe Stephanie Herseth, to drive home the point about the black man poaching white women.
Alabama would go Democratic before Kansas would.
See, there you go. Apo says Sebelius would deliver Kansas and Alabama. I defy you to find another candidate who does that well for us in the Deep South.
Who gives a shit about carrying Kansas? I say that as a Kansan. We're unreliable, contentious, bitchy, violent, irrational people, and we're not worth a hell of a lot in the big picture. Winning Ohio, Florida, and Virginia would be far more worth a candidate's time.
Ohio is a tough bird, too. It's divided against itself, on both local and state levels, on every possible issue, and, unlike Kansas, which is easily distracted, it's divided in a deeply entrenched and immobile way. It's a toss-up because it's geographically a toss-up. I say fuck Ohio too.
That's enough about Hillary's fat ass, sexist.
248: Colin Powell
Yeah, like he'd stand up and stop the Obamapocalypse. Consistency, Bib, that's all we ask.
Sports threadjack! Apparently, China's soccer team thinks Shaolin Soccer was a documentary, and their refs are only too happy to look the other way. The Beijing Olympics should be... interesting.
What's with all the quoting people and then not actually responding to them tonight?
Crap. The rest of that should have been: As long as we're there, Hillary's makeup and outfit looked kinda Madame Butterfly tonight.
Both [Obama and McCain] are taking risky, no compromise approaches. Obama running "butter-not-guns" is gambling, and I don't know how he turns on an "Event"
Like a major terrorist incident? He shows leadership and moderation, declares his support for a sane and proportionate response rather than for invading Iran, and then, unfortunately, it's up to the media.
Okay, so the Unfogged consensus is we need a young Muslim white woman from Florida who speaks Spanish.
258: Apparently the <?i> tag does something weird to the next paragraph. Like eating it.
Clark hasn't gotten any less likely, folks.
It's not about turning some purple (or red -- you people are dreaming if you think Kansas can be had in anything but a 40 state blowout) but about either turnout (Quayle & Bush, for example, to bring out disappointed wings of the party) or reassurance (Cheney, Gore, Bentsen) where the top guy lacks federal 'heft.' We're really past regionalism, I think, except for the South's prima donna refusal to support New Englanders, regardless of their positions.
I like her outfit. But her voice makes my throat ache in sympathy.
261: And served in the military and has foreign policy experience.
I think, except for the South's prima donna refusal to support New Englanders, regardless of their positions.
I don't like it, but I've gained a certain sympathy for their diffidence.
And again I saw Max Cleland winning would make Rove cry.
I like her suit too. But I admit the collar was somewhat distracting for television, like a patterned tie. It wasn't, however, "space-age" or operatic.
her voice makes my throat ache
I remarked to Roberta during the debate that a presidential campaign must result in vocal cord polyps more often than not, what with all the shouting for two years.
I liked her outfit too, just was surprised at the choice.
I also say forget Kansas. My sister lived in Kansas for 25-30 years, and everything I've ever heard about Kansas is bad. Even the people who were nice to her were unappealing.
It wasn't, however, "space-age" or operatic.
Lies.
The key to Ohio is keeping the megachurchers at home. This where the whispers and demonization of Barack will be targeted. (Hillary comes pre-demonized.) I expect Barack to stay with the religious rhetoric to depress this very bloc; this will undoubtedly piss off and worry a lot of us "White People" during the campaign.
263: Don't kid yourself: The South fails to support Northeasterners for substantive reasons. They were more than happy to vote for HW, and they never for a second bought his Texas schtick.
260:I vote for going for surrender. At some point somebody's gonna have to say we can't afford to be the worldcop, gotta pull back and show our strength a different way, let the world work out it's own destiny.
Okay, bomb just a smidgen, but mostly bring all our troops home.
If not Obama, who? If not now (bankrupt America), when? Is Obama that skilled politically?
The parts of Kansas I've been to have giant portions of food (baked potatoes the size of my forearm) and nice people. Still, they're not likely to go blue except a case where all the other states are blue and we don't need 'em anyway.
I also say forget Kansas.
Music from Kansas 1971–3 has a pretty good tune called "Hegemonium".
Snake men dance in a fiery pile
Wizards make their time worthwhile
Bodies burning in a pit
Boiling oil and sizzling spit
Aww yeah.
Kansas is a long, long, long and boring drive east-west.
In any event, as Ygles likes to point out, the important objective is not appealing to the South as such (i.e. in the sense of trying to win actual southern states), but rather appealing to the parts of the Midwest and border states that are culturally southern (i.e. the Ohio River Valley). If the Dems can do that, they will win in a walk and needn't worry about the Old Confederacy.
I liked Clinton's outfit too, once I figured out that those weren't antennae coming out of her neck.
273 -- I meant Northeastern Democrats. I don't think it's particularly substantive wrt the candidates, at least not in significant part. I think the LBJ - Richard Russell conversation was prophetic, and haven't yet seen anything from white southerners to disprove it.
HW's bit with the pork rinds was exactly the same as the tobacco companies' fake science in the 60s and 70s -- no one was actually fooled, except people who wanted some small fig leaf of deniability.
Kansas is my birthplace, haters.
277: This is true. Plus, all our heroes are shotgun-wielding Bible-thumping murderous incoherent maniacs. And those are our liberals.
Kansas is my birthplace, haters.
OK, so Sebelius is out. Then who?
276:Thanks. I have been trying to forget Kansas for 35 years. Next you'll mention Styx, or Boston. and I'll get radical.
Hillary's outfit, the collar, was refreshingly different, actually, as far as these things go. It's not like you're going to see someone with dreads long hair running for office. One step at a time.
281: noted. But that's really inconsequential in light of the many other much, much worse things about the place.
John Brown was not an actual Kansan.
278: All they need to do is flip Virginia. The demographics are there.
It would be awesome if Clinton started wearing P-Funk outfits on the Senate floor.
You want John Brown on the ticket, John? He'll certainly energize the Puritan base. I think predestination is a message that sells in 2008.
It's not like you're going to see someone with dreads long hair running for office.
We've come so far, but we've gone backwards in some ways.
277: The Flint Hills section of Kansas is one of the greatest (and relatively unknown) landscapes in the country.
286: We don't care. We painted his crazy-ass mug all over our capital building. Guns? Bibles? Good intentions mixed with murderous glee? We love that shit.
291: A very good friend of our family made a breathtaking documentary about the Flint Hills. Totally intense stuff. Gorgeous place.
290: That page of results contains one of my favoritest pictures ever.
Tim Kaine seems like a real possibility. He was an early and enthusiastic supporter. He speaks Spanish. He could put Virginia in play.
When that dude gets on tv, The Eyebrow comes out to play. It ain't pretty.
289:Isn't Toto the band that shared Rosanna Arquette with the Police?
Trying to think of the only good American prog band of the 70s. Starshine?
Also, foe Tyler Cowen, ttrying to remember a good Spanish progressive band of the 70s. Saint Just was Italian.
ttrying to remember a good Spanish progressive band of the 70s.
The Netherlands are part of Spain.
We've come so far, but we've gone backwards in some ways.
No fucking shit, huh? You know why Gore can never run for office again? That beard he was seen sporting that time. Kaput.
Clinton strikes me as nearly the living embodiment of the classical notion of the tragic flaw. In her case, it's that she can't actually work with organizations.
She certainly didn't sink Bill's health care plan single-handedly - I expect nothing would have survived the Republican opposition - but accounts of her micro-and-mis-management seem consistent. She's surrounded herself with awful advisors, and it appears that her current campaign is suffering from the same basic combination of micro-management and mis-management. We simply can't trust that anyone close to her is telling her anything like the truth - she's not walled off to the extent that, say, Cheney is, but she's a lot closer to that than anyone sane should be. She makes some awful choices and then feels unable or unwilling to back down, in the midst of a world situation very often characterized by the need for fast reappraisals.
I can't quite think of a position of real power or influence I'd trust her in, because I don't know when she'd drift from being the Clinton who is excellent on (for instance) access to abortion to being the Clinton who thinks a mathematically incompetent union-busting pollster is a good campaign manager. And once she hits the latter, she seems to have a very hard time ever getting out of it. I'd worry about any cause that mattered to me suffering for that.
It would be awesome if Clinton started wearing P-Funk outfits on the Senate floor.
Would you support her if she did?
298: Okay, that puts Kaine right out of contention.
298: Your intolerance is an affront to Eyebrow-Americans everywhere.
302: I would quit my job and go to work for her gratis. God, it would be so great if the mother ship landed in the Russell Building.
Okay, that puts Kaine right out of contention.
Y'know, I had that reaction during the first Democratic debate I watched when Edwards went all crazyblinky.
299:w-lfs-n, you need to help Ned
Hell, Earth & Fire is only a decent progressive band
307: And clearly you were right.
306: Man, poor Clinton--if she'd only known that the key to the nomination was getting some Bootsy glasses and a pair of platforms....
I think the explanation of her campaign is not incompetence (or not just incompetence), but money. She was banking on Super Tuesday because she can't match Obama's fundraising prowess. She opted for the Ohio/Texas strategy because she couldn't afford to contend in the other ten primaries.
That's no explanation, Walt. You can buy Bootsy glasses and a pair of platforms for less than $100.
Would you support her if she did?
Yep yep yep. And be cast out for a fool, if her outfit this evening was so dubious.
Wasn't Edwards all crazyblinky in every debate? It was sort of painful, and I didn't understand when some people said he'd ruled the debate. Oh. No.
John Brown was as Kansan as anyone else at the time. Except for the Kaw, of course.
Interestingly enough, we have actually had a Kaw vice president.
314 is as right as rain. Speaking of which, what does that mean?
312 - You can? Then I'm announcing my candidacy for the office of the President.
310: The explanation of her campaign is the war vote. Which has to be killing her.
Wasn't Edwards all crazyblinky in every debate?
Yeah, it's weird. I didn't notice it in 2004, and it doesn't seem like the sort of thing you'd miss.
Has Edwards been ruled out as VP? Taint of the loser, or what?
291 / 277: The Flint Hills section of Kansas is one of the greatest (and relatively unknown) landscapes in the country.
Do they vote? No. How many battalions do they have? None. Screw 'em.
310
"I think the explanation of her campaign is not incompetence (or not just incompetence), but money. ..."
But part of the reason she is short of money is that she wasted something like $40 million on her 2006 Senate campaign. And I suspect a lot of money has been wasted on her Presidential campaign as well. It is common for campaigns to attract a lot of leeches.
317: I think name recognition might be a particular problem for you.
Taint of the loser
Toto!
319: He hasn't endorsed anyone; it would seem that his moment has been lost.
319: I think so: taint of the loser. Obama has a dynamic power-player thing going; Edwards looks slightly flabby and limp-wristed by comparison (no untoward disparagement meant, but that's his cast now). And word from people who know the south is that trial lawyers are verboten.
SUSA has Clinton down 24 to McCain in Kansas & Obama down 6.
I doubt he can win it & I don't think it's worth picking the VP in the attempt to win KS. I think the regional strategy only makes sense if there's a realistic possibility of someone swinging his own state.
Clark does make some sense to me, but mainly all this talk makes me nervous.
It's the taint of the loser, it's the chill of defeat
Plunging down in obeisance to our rival...
1. Witt's apostrophe/dash issue upthread is a real concern. I have an apostrophe in my real surname and it has wreaked havoc on many a database. Typically I either get a message back saying my name has an invalid character (to which I say, "The fuck it does!") or I get a page of garbage in return that is likely the result of the apostrophe being treated as an unclosed quote.
Yes, in this day and age, people really fucking ought to be aware that there are names with non-letter characters, and that you should check for those in your input validation routines, and then just escape them. But they all too often still aren't and don't. So I am a bit surprised that the Michigan election could be screwed up in this way, but not that surprised.
A couple years ago I wrote a blog post about this issue, but curiously, doing that didn't seem to affect much change. Perhaps starting a PAC and/or Facebook group would help move this crusade further along.
2. Re Kansas, O's only back 6 pts in SUSA KS-Pres polling. I'm not holding my breath, though.
Well, if John Brown was a Kansan, the people he was killing were Kansans too. And I heartily approve of that! Exterminate the brutes (except for a limited number of individuals vouched for by AWB).
the end to this clip has the xerox line:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mftuZFzS3Tc
332: Yeah, I saw that when it came out. Thanks for reminding me, though, as I enjoyed it heartily and had forgotten about it.
Oh, and "affect much change" should be "effect much change."
people really fucking ought to be aware that there are names with non-letter characters
You and M/tch M/lls should burn some shit down.
His name is really M/tch M/lls? I thought it was Mutch Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeells.
Yes, in this day and age, people really fucking ought to be aware that there are names with non-letter characters, and that you should check for those in your input validation routines, and then just escape them. But they all too often still aren't and don't. So I am a bit surprised that the Michigan election could be screwed up in this way, but not that surprised.
People also ought to be aware that you should always use bind variables, never read arbitrary variable length data into a fixed-size buffer, and never write arbitrary user-entered text to a web page. Yet we still have SQL injection attacks, buffer overruns, and XSS attacks. Computers are complicated.
The Tranax default ATM password incident was a particularly amusing one, if you are into that kind of thing.
Not enough info for an alarmist post just yet, but what the fuckity?
I suspect a lot of money has been wasted on her Presidential campaign as well.
Apparently so. (Maybe someone can fix that link to get past the reg. page.)
338: Well, shit. It's only Dallas, what could possibly go wrong?
You do realize that if it was a campaign decision, it's going to get picked up as evidence that he doesn't care about security as much as he cares about his cult of personality.
And for those who have charisma, the use and application of charisma is very calculated. Like a fine stage actor or stand-up comedian or jazz soloist, the spontaneity comes from massive prep.
Obama is very smart and cold as ice. I like that.
So true. He is not a sentimental guy, he sees things clearly. And he's so charismatic he doesn't even really have to pretend to be sentimental. Which I find refreshing.
I think that's one of the things that makes him feel weirdly genuine for a politician, even when he's spouting cliches -- he's so self-possessed and has such natural presence that he doesn't have to obviously fake emotions.
Not unless it's established that he makes the security decisions, and no one is going to establish that.
342: You might even say that he has sprezzatura.
Have you guys been following Hilzoy's post about McCain and the federal funding thing? Check out this article in the WaPo:
If the FEC refuses McCain's request to leave the system, his campaign could be bound by a potentially debilitating spending limit until he formally accepts his party's nomination. His campaign has already spent $49 million, federal reports show. Knowingly violating the spending limit is a criminal offense that could put McCain at risk of stiff fines and up to five years in prison.
343: Eh, he'd have to fire someone, at least, to demonstrate that Security Matters, etc.
344: he has gravitas!
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-iraqpol2feb02,1,4486515.story
Tony McPeak for VP! Gaffes a'plenty!
young Muslim white woman from Florida who speaks Spanish
I think I'm the closest y'all got. Young, check. I'm arab, so I might as well be a muslim. Florida? No, but I went to school in Texas. Which is large and southern, like Florida. And everyone thinks I'm a Mexican, so I might as well speak Spanish.
Now if Barack will come 'round and ask nicely, I will serve...
343: Eh, he'd have to fire someone, at least, to demonstrate that Security Matters, etc.
Nah.
Not enough info for an alarmist post just yet, but what the fuckity?
Didn't Jeb Bartlett get shot in just this way? Campaign staff (or Bartlett) tells the Sec. Service to ease up a bit so he can see the people, and everyone (nearly) dies. And Jeb Bartlett served two terms!
I'm arab, so I might as well be a muslim.
I think the Muslim plan was for *contrast* with Obama Hussein. That the whole point was to get away from the "might as well" formulation.
Now, if you wanted to convert. And maybe join the military, that would help too.
353: I think the Muslim plan was for *contrast* with Obama Hussein
So it would have to be a Shia right?
342: he's so self-possessed and has such natural presence that he doesn't have to obviously fake emotions.
Let me put this together: lacking charisma, a politician has to fake emotions, resort to sentimentality (faked or genuine)? Is that the idea? What does charisma provide that these other things are a sorry substitute for? I don't dispute the analysis, just considering the more general question.
On preview: gravitas, eh? Charismatic gravitas. Just like all the best professors! And actors: Sam Waterston, here we come.
356: charisma provides connection with the audience. If you can't get it by stage presence, you need to resort to naked emotional appeals that feel faked.
Of course the question then is what exactly connection with the audience is.
357: Right. Connection with the audience isn't a universal. What works now wouldn't work in some other circumstance. I'd like to maintain that charisma isn't universal, then. But. I think, oddly, of Prince.
359: Probably for the "doesn't represent real change" issue (Sec. Navy for Reagan). Frankly, I can't think of a candidate from Virginia that doesn't jeopardize one of the red seats we've flipped recently. Maybe Kaine as VP and L. Douglas Wilder for governor (again) to replace him.
But Kaine's boring and technocratty. Successful at wringing compromise, but we probably need to shore up the foreign policy cred. I'm not convinced on that last point, though.
Oh! I know. Obama picks McCain for VP.
Talk about awkward.
IANAUniformedGuard, but my understanding is that the Secret Service doesn't usually take their marching orders from the campaign. This doesn't entail a great Washington conspiracy to get the black guy assassinated, but I don't think this could have been the Obama campaign's call.
Hillary's closing statement made me verklempt.
By the way, has everyone seen this Josh Marshall post? Did Hillary really pull out that flaming turd of a "Xerox" dig, and then turn around and use a closing line taken right from her husband's '92 campaign?
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/179614.php
Kaine'll only have a year left after December 2008, and he's term limited. I agree that he's dull, though.
Of women, what about McCaskill? Missouri is a lot more in play than Kansas. (It's worth noting, though, that Sebelius might help somewhat in Ohio, where her father was governor in the early 70s.)
Other than those two, I can't really think of any plausible woman running mates for Obama.
Let me add, as someone who had Mark Warner give his commencement address at the University of Virginia way back in 2002, that Mark Warner is also very, very dull.
McCaskill would mean giving up a Senate seat.
Stop all this Kaine talk. The Eyebrow must be caged.
I had a dream early this morning that Hillary bowed out very gracefully. I have a good record with predictive dreams.
Probably for the "doesn't represent real change" issue (Sec. Navy for Reagan).
Are you kidding? Webb is basically morphing into a white male working class populist radical. That is real change. Problem is, A) you may lose the Senate seat, and B) he's a bombthrower, not really want you want in a VP. What you want in a VP is not embarassing you, so boring is good.
257 good clip, civil commenters
not cursing and all, i used to watch soccer during platini-maradona-gullit times, then lost all tracks
i wish i could watch chibi maruko sometimes, can you post it?
I should have know that Wry was a wahoo from the brilliance of Wry's comments!
368- The Clintons are laying the foundation for a graceful exit. The campaign message is Texas and Ohio, or out. And they know Texas is against odds.
In an Obama administration, she'll be a leading senator. There are worse things.
You DO want a bomb thrower for VP. Nominating Webb would allow Obama to preserve his Mother Theresa image.
And charisma doesn't make fakery unnecessary, it's the most successful form of fakery.
On the daily kos, I just read an post predicting a huge Obama win due to his volunteer ground campaign.
Oops. A huge win in Texas.
Is it true that Heebie is leading her students in Obama chants at the beginning and end of every class?
And are Sir Kraab and M/tch really leading regular Obama-girl karaoke nights?
I do not think we can afford to give up Jim Webb or Mark Warner from the Senate. It would be too easy for it to turn into a Republican seat.
And charisma doesn't make fakery unnecessary, it's the most successful form of fakery.
Exactly my point -- it makes obvious fakery unnecessary. Visible fakery is the substitute for not having charisma, the more effective variant. Most politicians are strained, visible fakes because they are not all that charismatic. You can see the flop sweat with them.
It's actually an interesting and somewhat metaphysical question whether charisma -- the ability to make other people spontaneously *want* to believe you -- is a form of fakery or just a kind of animal influence that is prior to truth or falsehood.
377 et al:Y'all could check out Wikipedia, which has articles on charisma and charismatic leadership. I have linked them here before. For modern management and organizational purposes, they have come a long way since Weber.
Suggested Qualities of Leadership
Distinguishing between effective highly trained & skilled leadership and charisma could be difficult
It's actually an interesting and somewhat metaphysical question whether charisma -- the ability to make other people spontaneously *want* to believe you -- is a form of fakery or just a kind of animal influence that is prior to truth or falsehood.
Leave aside truth or falsehood. And "want to believe you" isn't quite right: the ability to get people to drop their defenses and allow you to influence them is a better formulation. The relation doesn't go just in one way; the charismatic isn't just acting on the audience, the audience also generally harbors a desire to trust people, and someone who's compelling enough to cut through skepticism is welcomed. It's a variety of love affair. Someone who attempts to influence but fails can become a target for resentment.
That's all pretty generic. Is charisma a kind of animal influence, which I take it means not socially constructed? Need more examples of charismatic people. It's difficult to separate sexiness from charisma.
the audience also generally harbors a desire to trust people, and someone who's compelling enough to cut through skepticism is welcomed.
Nobody listens to me, or reads me cut-and-pastes, but demagogues & dictators are made or found as often as born.
The social judgement that leadership is important and necessary is the necessary & sufficient condition, and can be nurtured with years of bad leadership. Blaming George Bush or Dick Cheney (or Harry Reid) for our troubles instead of the Republican Party makes you want the benevolent, competent leader.
Do you always get a Caesar when the people want one? I suspect so, it is just a question as to whether somwone is around who can consolidate power & popularity.
Bob, your wikipedia link in 378 is interesting. Thanks.
The Clintons are laying the foundation for a graceful exit
Is charisma a kind of animal influence, which I take it means not socially constructed?
Human beings are social animals, so don't make the distinction.
It's difficult to separate sexiness from charisma.
There's one difference between male and female sexuality right there.
Since I'm banned already for out-of-control gender generalization, may as well follow up with a LOL.
383: Meaning, I assume you are saying, that charisma isn't a significant factor in men's assessment of what is sexy?
No, I don't make the distinction, which is why I didn't understand the question.
I don't see any cause for banning. I actually have only a vague idea what you're talking about with respect to the sexiness/charisma divide. I have trouble thinking of people I find charismatic who aren't thereby sexy to me; that doesn't mean that sexy people are charismatic, which is possibly what you're talking about. Hot chix aren't necessarily charismatic. Or possibly I have no idea what you mean.
This charisma question interests me, though, obviously, and I wish it were a separate thread at some point. The classicists could weigh in.
Well, it's probably a factor, but sexiness and charisma are nowhere close to being synonyms in men's minds. As Parsimon was implying they might be for women.
386 gets it right.
Therefore it all depends on whether Parsimon's implication reflects women's brains en masse.
That is interesting. I'm still trying to decide if it's encouraging....
I have trouble thinking of people I find charismatic who aren't thereby sexy to me
But the reverse is not the case? So charismatic is a subset of sexy?
I guess I'm saying that for men they are more like two overlapping sets, and it's quite easy to think of women who belong in either one but not the other.
Of course, I only know my own thinking on the matter, so I am inferring to my Internal Universal Assumed Maleness, and also inferring from your statement to a grand generalization about women.
(387: You can add me as a data point for Parsimon's theory.)
I guess I'm saying that for men they are more like two overlapping sets, and it's quite easy to think of women who belong in either one but not the other.
Agreed.
I can think of several physically unattractive guys that I found sexy because of their charisma. I can also think of several physically attractive guys who I could not find sexy at all because of either lack of or anti-charisma.
Here's a vote for not all charismatic men are sexy -- I can think of a couple I know who are charismatic and aren't sexy.
I would also add that one might theorize that for men charm, as in being charming, overlaps significantly more with being sexy than charisma does. Charm is also a social influence skill, but not necessarily a leadership one.
Not sure about this, but I might have some of the same difficulty Parsimon was referring to in separating "she's charming" from "she's sexy". Although I can think of a number of cases (maybe with significantly older people) where it wouldn't overlap.
not sure about 394.
But the reverse is not the case? So charismatic is a subset of sexy?
Correct, you got it. No, sexiness and charisma are not synonymous.
Of course I don't pretend to make a general statement about women's minds. For me, if I find a guy charismatic, I will likely also find him sexy. What I'm having trouble envisioning is someone who's charismatic who I don't find sexy. (Male or female, actually.)
People say that Bill Clinton is/was charismatic. Never saw it myself: a skilled politician, yes, but otherwise, no. And not sexy in any way.
Charisma and sexiness are overlapping, okay, but perhaps I want to say that there are far more seemingly not-very-hot guys I find sexy than there would be, in reverse, for men with respect to not-terribly-hot babes.
It looks like someone's alter egos are at war.
PerfectlyGD, care to mediate between the two?
I can think of many men who are charismatic and not sexy (Marlon Brando in The Godfather, Jack Nicholson in anything but Reds), but cannot, off the top of my head, think of a man I find sexy who I don't also think of as charismatic. I'm pretty sure sexy is a subset of charismatic for me.
My last sentence in 396 was a hell of a grammatical construction. Nevermind.
PGD in 394, about charm as sexy: I understand this for men as a response to women. Which is odd, because I recognize charm in both men and women, and while it makes me warm to them, it's not yet sexy. This may be a personal difference, or it may be generalizable to gender differences. Charm, after all, is usually pretty non-aggressive and inviting, appropriate to women's behavior, therefore possibly sexy according to that calculus.
Not sure.
398: According to report, hundreds if not thousands of women have found Nicholson sexy. Perhaps you are a lesbian or a pervert of some other kind (I recommend bestiality).
Surely Aristotle has addressed the question of charisma in the Rhetoric.
Reading group! Orange post titles!
Those were teal, thank you very much.
Okay, actually, I have a hard time distinguishing between charisma and charm. And, jumping from the example of Brando in GF as charismatic, maybe it's charm rather than charisma I find sexy.
400: Nicholson was sexy at one time. I just watched that one with him and Diane Keaton and Keanu Reeves the other day and it appears pretty conclusive to me that Nicholson is no longer sexy.
I never did know what orange post titles was supposed to mean.
Do not confuse charm with charisma!
Yeah, this is one discussion that's going to break down irretrievably on varying definitions of 'charisma' and 'charm'. People I think of as charismatic tend to be people I think of as very bad people; it's not that they're more likely to be charismatic than anyone else, but I notice the charisma because I get out of range, come to my senses, and start thinking "What was I just nodding along with?" If what the charismatic guy is selling isn't a problem when I think about it rationally, I don't pay attention to the fact that the salesman was charismatic.
I wasn't claiming that no one found Nicholson sexy, just that I never did, except in Reds, but I always find him charismatic. But I'll consider the bestiality suggestion, as long as I don't have to have sex with both the chicken and Jack Nicholson. Present day Nicholson still works as an example of someone I think many non-chicken fuckers would find unsexy but charismatic.
it appears pretty conclusive to me that Nicholson is no longer sexy.
There's a sad period in the career of many leading men when they can still convince Hollywood executives that they are virile and sexy, but not so much an audience.
Charm is seducing the individual, charisma seducing the masses, perhaps?
this is one discussion that's going to break down irretrievably on varying definitions of 'charisma' and 'charm'. People I think of as charismatic tend to be people I think of as very bad people;
That's really interesting. I think I would say charm is a subset of charisma, and those who are charmless but charismatic are those who are bullying or rude or what have you, yet still compelling. But good/bad doesn't enter into for me.
I would draw the distinction as being that charm produces liking, charisma produces attention and agreement. I find bob mcmanus's posting style charming; as internet loons go, he's entirely my kind of guy. Doesn't mean I'm going to agree with anything at all because he says it. Someone charismatic, on the other hand, I'd be convinced, even if I couldn't remember what about the argument was so convincing.
410: I don't think only bad people are charismatic, just that I notice it on bad people because it's apparent to me that their personality is overriding my judgment.
I would draw the distinction as being that charm produces liking, charisma produces attention and agreement.
That's a pretty good distinction; certainly there are charming people I never come near agreeing with.
"Charm" I take to mean someone who is deft with social graces, saying just the right thing at the right moment, being thoughtful to everyone in the room, talking without taking up too much of everyone's listening energy. I happen to be somewhat repulsed by charm, sexually, though I can recognize its worth socially.
"Charisma" I'd think of in terms of, frex, a certain professor of mine who is a famously unattractive little guy, but who opens his mouth and suddenly seizes the attention of everyone in the room. People who are not charismatic tend either to worship him or resent him horribly. My girlfriends and I have long conversations in which we try to figure out what it is exactly that we're in love with about him. He can be rude and blunt, and then suddenly magnificently gracious in a moment. Plus, he's a fucking genius and a remarkable speaker. Being around him feels like being in love. We all agree that he's not sexy, that it's not sex we want from him. We just want to, like, be near him. Very creepy feeling.
"Compelling" is my favorite.
I really do feel stupid talking about this when I know Aristotle says all sorts of insightful stuff about it in, NEVETHELESS, charm and charisma seem quite different to me. Charm is akin to likability and is in some ways akin to being ingratiating, so it's a non-threatening, person-to-person trait. Charisma, on the other hand, is a kind of magnetism that draws you to someone quite apart from whether they're likable or non-threatening; often they're decidedly not.
I see now that I've been Weiner-pwned by 411, and of course I would have taken a completely different position if I'd known that LB was going to draw the distinction in this way. My apologies.
Charm is seducing the individual, charisma seducing the masses, perhaps?
A good start, maybe, but I'd say no: Obama is speaking to each and every one of us, you know.
Nah. Charm is also problematic because it can be turned on and off: I can be devastatingly charming with (or to) some people and turn it off with others. So there's "she's charming" and there's also "that was charming." It might work to say that charm is a behavior, while people seem to want to say that charisma is a personality trait, can't turn it off.
Really the terms here are a mess.
I met a guy once who talked about "charmism". He knew it was a mistake but he liked it anyway. He was a black gay opera singer, IIRC.
Hmm. You people are making me doubt that I find either charm orcharisma sexy. AWB, the way you define "charm" is the Ugly Naked Guy to a tee. Works the room, lets everyone know just how thoughtful he is. Likewise, my arch-nemesis at the firm, an obsequious snake-oil salesman who does virtually none of his own work but postures like he owns the place with such confidence that the powers-that-be apparently assume it must be so. I hate, hate, hate him, perhaps no more so than when he pops by to ask in that caring tone how things are going. Unbearably deft with the social graces, the little toad. And also almost precisely what I read in LB's description of charisma, too.
I don't think I've ever known anyone with the sort of charisma AWB describes. Which is sort of sad, because that sounds kind of pleasant.
So is Obama charming or charismatic according to these rough definitions? I'd go for charismatic, complete with the not-sure-I-like-it discomfort, but I believe others disagree.
Meanwhile, agreed with ogged's 415, complete with mispelling:
I really do feel stupid talking about this when I know Aristotle says all sorts of insightful stuff about it in, NEVETHELESS
Di, they sound like my sociopath brother-in-law, the one who's lucky that I don't have death-ray superpowers. In his youth he had tremendous vitality, good looks, and charm.
He was also a workaholic and a self-made man, up to a point. (His parents fronted him some money. He also may have involved himself in crime at one point when he had a cash-flow problem.)
they sound like my sociopath brother-in-law
Yeah, which is making me wonder if there is some form of "good" charm distinct from that wielded by sociopaths, or whether all charm is just a big red flag for blood sucking vermin.
Also, I'm a little moody, so, grain of salt...
That's not a misspelling, that's my New York accent, for emphasis.
To be fair to charmers (I've been teaching a lot of Jane Austen this week), charm does serve a wonderful social purpose that is ethically sound. The ability to make people feel comfortable is a wonderful talent, and is not always a sign of neediness. Sometimes, one meets a truly charming person who really doesn't "need" to be liked in that weird psychotic way some people have. They're just kind and watch out for people really well.
I have a friend like this who helps me run our softball league. He's not duplicitous or disingenuous ever, but he is deeply friendly and kind unless he has a really solid reason not to be. He makes sure everyone has a say, even though he's good at stating his own opinion, too, and he's a wonderful listener who gives great advice. We share a lot of students, and his students rave about how much they enjoy the environment in his classes.
So I guess I feel like the kind of charmer you mean, Di, doesn't really strike me as charming. My buddy is still not "sexy" to me, just really admirable.
Well, I've thought somewhat the same way you are for decades, so don't assume too quickly that it's just a phase you're going through.
just know that someone is going to pipe up and tell everyone how charming I was at UnfoggeDCon.
421: Oh, I don't think that charm, or charisma, are the mark of the beast or anything -- you get people with the same sort of compelling personality who don't do anything evil with it. It just pops out really visibly when the charmer is evil.
423: Hmm, and I guess the "good" charm you are describing is what I would think of as "just being genuinely nice" rather than "charming."
424: I have realized for some time that this was a possibility. Tell me, honestly Doc, how much fun-but-misguided-relationship time do I have left before the No Relationship Virus takes over completely?
425: Exactly. Just like charisma is a power that can be wielded by evil megalomaniacal types as well as good-hearted motivational people, charm is a force that breaks in a lot of different ways.
426: Yeah, but lots of people are nice without having the social power of charm. It's a skill, to put people at ease. Plenty of genuinely nice people lack that near-magical grace that a truly charming person has. My buddy is the sort that I can sit down with him at a table with my worst enemies and have a good time, because he puts all of us at ease.
Buck's got some of that -- he's god's gift to hostile committee meetings. You put him in a room and everyone forgets they hate each other for long enough to get through the agenda.
(pause symbol)
Meanwhile, my local college radio station is going through the top 500 albums of all time, as voted by their listeners, and I'm amused to have heard over the last week that early Stones, Elvis Costello, U2, and King Crimson were around number 250 or 225 or so, then Nirvana and The Band up further in there, and now Cat Stevens and AC/DC around 100. I can't wait, really. It makes for good radio.
(end pause symbol)
Exactly. Buck is a perfect example of magically charming and good. I don't think he's "charismatic," from what I can tell, at least not in the senses I'm used to, but he's at the height of charm.
Sometimes I have charm and sometimes I have anti-charm. My anti-charm turns on especially when I'm supposed to be making a good impression on someone important, but I have no control of it. It must vary with my blood sugar / caffeine / alcohol degradation product levels.
I was totally charmed by Buck. Has his psychopathy expressed yet?
Nope. Sweet, kind, responsible, and generally delightful. Not charismatic, AWB is right, but charming.
426: how much fun-but-misguided-relationship time do I have left before the No Relationship Virus takes over completely?
Infinite. You have infinite fun but misguided relationship time left.
(Also, Purple Rain is top album of all time number 99 or something. Cool.)
Fun relationships are cool with me, actually. Try to avoid sociopaths and the like, even if it means being relationshipless. Relationshiplessness can be a good thing. Relationshiplessnessism takes both absolute and relative forms.
People I think of as charismatic tend to be people I think of as very bad people
Hitler! Stalin! Hott or not?!
Actually, Stalin doesn't seem to have been all that obviously charismatic. Just really smart, really patient, really tough, and really manipulative. Before he reaches power he's always slinking around the edges of the Bolshevik circle, working hard and quietly amassing power. Trotsky was the charismatic one.
Stalin was however extremely successful with women in his younger days, long string of seductions. Must be the manipulative thing. Plus he wrote poetry and stuff.
(Yes, I just read a biography of Stalin).
Parsimon loves Prince! Cool. I saw him live once. Charismatic, sexy, charming, and a great dancer and guitar player to boot!
Stalin was however extremely successful with women in his younger days
It's the moustache.
One of my shy young boy students has recently grown a very striking southern-trailer-park-style mustache, and I keep wanting to tell him I think it's cute and a good move, ladies-wise. (He's nice-looking, but doesn't particularly stand out on personality alone.) Then I remember all the sexual-seduction advice I give my classes has to be in the context of poetry.
Just say "Nice stache. I'd hit that!"
Stalin was also very gangster when he was young. While all the other Bolsheviks were hanging out in European cafes arguing endlessly about politics, he was running around Southern Russia in disguise robbing banks. Daring capers, thrilling getaways, car chases, etc. That's got to pull in more ladies than writing "What Are Classes and The Class Struggle".
It's the moustache.
I'm not so sure about this. When I stopped shaving mine, my sex appeal went straight into the gutter.
Charm and charisma often go hand-in-hand, because they complement each other well. But they are different skills. I would describe charm as having a deft hand with interpersonal relationships, a kind of prudence. Charisma overwhelms others with sheer force of personality. People can be naturals at both, and my sense is that charm is easier to learn than charisma.
When you have charm, you bring someone around to comity by carefully changing your words and actions to fit the situation. When you have charisma, you bring someone around to comity by changing them.
