Krauthammer probably didn't mean this one seriously, but like your mother always said, never give a cripple a break.
Mine would say that he's not crippled enough.
In this forum last fall, I predicted that oil would be $100 by Christmas and $150 by summer.
My competition, noted reality-based economist John Quiggin, predicted a 3-5% annual increase in oil prices that would pose no significant economic difficulties.
that President Obama and the Chinese withdrawal from Tibet sounded nice, pity it was fake
As usual, I called all this shit in 07.
In a response to Krauthammer, I would say the delicate balance between demand destruction and dollar devaluation makes the price of oil a year from now less predictable. Cheers.
6: Not to worry, china will take up the demand slack, with a bit of help from india.
In this forum last fall, I predicted that oil would be $100 by Christmas and $150 by summer.
The last year has been glory days for catastrophists. Best time since the late 70s.
It's up and running... I'll add these, but of course you won't see them until November.
http://www.punditpredictions.com/
8 was tongue in cheek, but I think there is a possible monkey wrench in all such predictions in that we might see a significant supply drop in the next few years...
The next six months will be important for the future of predictions.
I predict that the Senate leadership will force John McCain to cast some votes that will hurt him in the campaign. Such are the awesome powers of my political predictive mind.
mrh doesn't mess around. Conception to execution, baby. Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.
Joe Drymala has forgotten his American Idol prediction.
I've been trying to keep an eye out for predictions, but I managed to read that one from Drum without noticing it.
As for Krauthammer, two observations:
1 - The column containing his "prediction" is actually sensible, if a bit obnoxious.
2 - This fact should in no way moderate the loathing that decent people feel for Krauthammer.
Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.
No kidding, right? I need to monetize this thing quick.
Of course, he'll abandon it as soon as his kid is born.
Unless it gets popular enough to generate decent ad revenue, and then it'll be a godsend.
See? I have kids. I know what he's thinking.
The column containing his "prediction" is actually sensible
Not really, insofar as he seems to assume that the "real" price of gas won't rise so much that an added tax would become punitive/impossible to pass. Not to mention that he recommends decreasing the payroll tax by as much as we increase the gas tax, instead of using at least part of the gas tax revenue to fund alternative transport.
21: Yep - my comment was just the Overton Window in action. Krauthammer writes a stupid column that isn't insane, and I get suckered into describing it as "sensible." Shame on me.
21: I'm not reading the column, but I assume the decrease in payroll tax is meant to make it less punitive. (And, I assume, shift the tax burden down the income ladder.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/05/AR2008060503435.html
George Will predicts that if HRC becomes BHO's running mate, she will unify the Republicans, and Obama will "define himself as someone who can be pushed around" and "reduce himself to a reflection of a reflection."
How do we submit to punditpredictions.com?
I think I'll put up a post tomorrow to see if folks can help fill out the site a little bit, mrh. When you have more predictions up, or more in the pipeline, you, I, We All can email Atrios, Drum, and Yglesias to let people know about the site.
"reduce himself to a reflection of a reflection."
Awesome. Because only White Guys are rilly real, see.
This is actually kind of cool; I wouldn't have the motivation to read an entire George Will column without the prospect of using it against him.
Awesome. I just did a little backfilling, as you can see, and there are a few Apple predictions in the pipeline that should pop up in a few hours.
I'll grab Minivet's as well... So far, a whole lotta posts scheduled for November 5.
I predict that I'll get a job by fall.
I predict that as pundits become aware of the existence of this site, they will make less predictions, and the predictions they do make will be less daring.
Overall a big win, really.
It's almost like you don't want my kids to be able to go to college.
Joe Scarborough Dec 22, 2006 being a jerk as well as very wrong: Like Peter Brady's Bravo, Obama's shot at the top will be short lived. But since BHO is young enough, dynamic enough and (just) black enough to whip official Washington into a frenzy, expect this stupid story to stick around for a while. Soon enough though, this year's model will be shouting, "Please give a warm Chicago welcome to the next President of the United States, Hillary Clinton!"
(Not that anyone really cares about Joe Scarborough's predictions.)
I predict that Ben will be along shortly to correct the usage in 31.
36: Please let me know what I did wrong, J. Alfred or Ben?
36: More predictions! Less Corrections!
I predict that this can of beer I'm about to drink in an unairconditioned apartment on a hot summer afternoon will be refreshing.
I'm reconsidering 31...Saiselgy has made a joke about his predictions (about politics, at least) always being wrong. Maybe bloggers will make more predictions hoping to attract attention from this new hot site.
39: Now you're just trolling ben.
Prediction goldmine from The Corner, late October 2004. Some good, some bad.
Michael Graham's is the best. The hilariously dumb Democrats try to run up the score in safe states in the popular vote and get all the way to 49%, but lose the electoral vote 367-171.
I think they're referring to "less" for a number, instead of "fewer." "Less" would be for a measure.
But not every good writer observes that distinction; Orwell didn't.
43: More scolding! Fewer trolling!
A contingent prediction:
if The Iraqi Government signs a Status of Forces Agreement before January 1 2009
then there will be a strike against Iran within two weeks after signing the agreement (either by Israel or the US)
Bush weighs in on 2/25/07:
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush predicted Monday that voters will replace him with a Republican president who will "keep up the fight" in Iraq. "I'm confident we'll hold the White House in 2008," Bush told donors at the Republican Governors Association annual dinner, which raised a record $10.6 million for GOP gubernatorial candidates.
Joe Drymala has forgotten his American Idol prediction.
peep, ?
I'm not sure self-interested predictions from politicians like the ones in 48 and 50 should count. What say you all?
50: Come now, I think any president in the same position would be obliged to say that.
10/11/07
Amateur freakonomist Stephen Dubner predicts Mitt Romney will win the White House
Yeah, 48 doesn't count. She was just making a joke.
I did predict the ticket would be Clinton/Obama back at the very beginning of the season. It's on my blog somewhere, I think, but my internet connection here is too slow for me to go dig it up. Feel free to do so, and to humiliate me accordingly.
I predict that the inflation adjusted price for gasoline in the US will never drop below 3$/gallon until the internal combustion engine is replaced as the engine of dominant mode of transportation in the country.
57: Here. However, in the post, I predict Clinton/Obama too. What's more humiliating, though, is my prediction that Giuliani/McCain will be the Republican ticket. Oops.
49 was an informative and useful prediction
59:I predict that last American gasoline will be used to BURN SHIT DOWN
I predict that more & more bottles will be made of plastic, ineffective as Molotovs. It's a plan.
I like 59 as a prediction a lot. It seems quite likely, but not a complete lock, and it would have very real implications for future states of the world and spending. Hooray!
61: See, I'm more moderate than that. I'd place bets, but if you win you are not really in a position to collect.
Uh, folks, nobody cares about your predictions.
What's more humiliating, though, is my prediction that Giuliani/McCain will be the Republican ticket. Oops.
Ain't over til election day, and anything can happen. And still wouldn't be over. Another 10-30 point drop in the polls for McCain, and the Republican convention could become exciting. And in any case, I think I have predicted here that McCain would not become President, and perhaps not the nominee. Was Kennedy's illness predictable?
Giuliani/McCain I would call unlikely, though.
El Wrongo, ogged. Once this site gets established, you can add Bob McManus and selected others to the list of recognized "pundits" who are being monitored. After all, what makes someone a pundit?
64:Ogged is undemocratic, and objectively pro-David Broder & pro-George Will.
64: Z Dieudonné Zoungrana of the L'Observateur, Burkina Faso predicts McCain.
As for him (Obama), given that some Americans view him not even African-American, but as downright African (his grandmother continues to smoke the Nyangogo pipe in Kenya), there is no question who will be the next tenant of the oval office.
JP breaks the Nyangogo pipe scandal.
I'm not sure if any of this fellow's articles contain testable predictions, but he is definitely a pundit worth watching.
After all, what makes someone a pundit?
Lack of common sense?
...and that's why Snoop Dogg will never be a pundit.
I will have the most recent comment on seven threads before I'm through.
Ogged, you need this site:
The intention of Long Bets is to encourage responsibility in prediction-making (by keeping a public roster of predictions), to encourage long-term thinking (by offering a opportunity to shape a long-term bet), and to sharpen the logic of forecasting (by recording the logic of predictions and bets.)
Yeah, someone sent me that, but I think they're doing something pretty different.