But you guys scared away all the new bloggers.
You tricksy bastards.
If they scare that easily, I don't think they have the disposition for this job.
Not that they exist.
"new bloggers" is going to be the unfogged snuffalupagus.
And just like that [poof] the new bloggers are gone..
Those are good omens, but we are indeed a long way from November, and I still view McCain as inevitable. My prediction is that McCain will win a relatively close election, but honestly I think a McCain landslide is more likely than an Obama win.
Blogging is a killer. I used to be in a blogging quartet in Skokie, Illinois. The new blogger was this guy named [ ], big fat guy, I mean, like, orca fat. He was so stressed in the morning...
6: expectations management is good for the heart, Brock.
The new bloggers are in the fruitbasket.
expectations management is good for the heart, Brock.
I'm expecting great things of these "new bloggers," assuming they actually exist. No pressure, though!
Nobody believes in these supposed new bloggers anymore, Apo. We're a shrewd bunch. I curse these new bloggers, their antecedents, and their descendants unto the third and the fourth generation.
Is Brock serious? Has he expressed/explained it before?
I'm a natural optimist, but sheesh, even stras thinks it's in the bag.
If you're feeling more pessimistic than stras, you might want to consider pharmaceuticals.
24 percent of the voters who supported Clinton in the primaries now back McCain
I must say, this is a higher %age than I would've guessed - I probably would've guessed 10-15%, topping out at 20. It'll be interesting to see how it trends - inevitably downwards, but whether it drops below, say, 10%
I'd assume that the higher Clinton -> McCain numbers in Ohio and Pennsylvania than Florida is due to Appalachia.
I curse these new bloggers, their antecedents, and their descendants unto the third and the fourth generation.
They are like Obi Wan Kenobi: your hatred only makes them stronger.
The election depends mostly on Obama running a stronger campaign than the last two Democrats, which he seems capable of doing. He has more money than McCain, for one thing.
"A better campaign" will depend partly on a less inane and toxic media, which is also possible. Obama may be the establishment candidate by now -- he's really quite "moderate". The crazy tools in the Republican party have been a bit too crazy recently, and the big players don't want to be identified with failure.
I expect big gains in Congress and a pretty decisive Obama win, after which I can join Sirota, Stoller, et al as the left opposition within the Democratic Party. It's quite possible that the Republicans will be crippled for a few cycles, and let's hope to keep them that way.
However: have no definite information, but it may be that the new Dem Congressmen will be disproportionately Blue Dogs and "moderates", in which case I still might be fucked.
My personal goal for next January, if all goes well, will be to bounce Steny Hoyer.
My sister is a fanatical Clintonista who's hostile to Obama. I think that the rest of the family can bring her around, but as of right now she won't vote for Obama and maybe not for McCain either, and she's been talking to my other sister.
She's a very, very weak Democrat who may have supported Bush in 2000, so it's not surprising that she's not supporting Obama. I think that there are a lot like her, apolitical centrist career women who just loved Hillary.
a McCain landslide
Barring a discovery that Obama killed a tranny hooker for drug money, I can't come up with any scenario looking at the electoral map where McCain wins a landslide.
It's not just one tranny hooker, Apo. There are three to five of them cued up ready to roll.
I used to be in a blogging quartet in Skokie, Illinois.
That's funny, you don't look Korean.
"Had I know that I would be running for office one day, I would never have killed them. Political candidates are put under a magnifying class, and their tiniest mistakes are are puffed up into major scandals."
I have explained it before, but the short version is that I just don't think America's ready to elect a Muslim Marxist who can't bowl. Especially not against a non-partisan Maverick war hero. The truth or falsity of these descriptions makes little difference.
People seem to think Iraq is a problem for McCain ("100 years"!), but it's a much bigger problem for Obama. The Democratic base might liove the idea of withdrawal, but it's not going to go over well with the rest of the voters. We couldn't even get out our of Vietnam until we had some plausible way to characterize our withdrawal as Victory; the idea of withdrawing and conceeding defeat is a non-starter McCain will claim that he was right about the surge, and that he knows what we need to do to win. And people will buy it.
Also, far too many projections of an Obama victory seem to depend to some extent on depressed turn-out among the hard-right base (due to dissatisfaction with McCain). I don't think that's even slightly likely. There're going to hold their noses and vote for him en masse.
Barring a discovery that Obama killed a tranny hooker for drug money America really doesn't like black people, I can't come up with any scenario looking at the electoral map where McCain wins a landslide.
There's a new blogger in the garden. It's eating a tulip.
Behold, Emerson will rebuke these new bloggers, and spread dung upon their faces.
Don't count your boobies until they are hatched.
22 and 23 are funny, in how thoroughly misguided they are in their depressed pessimism.
the idea of withdrawing and conceeding defeat is a non-starter McCain will claim that he was right about the surge, and that he knows what we need to do to win.
Only if he can make it all the way through the speech making those claims without drooling, dropping off for a quick nap, or wetting himself. I'm not sure that's a 50/50 proposition.
25: Yea verily, but the new bloggers are a stiff-necked people...
What Brock just described is the dominant psychology of an appreciable part of the electorate, and a factor in the makeup of much more of it, perhaps a majority. The question is whether that will control.
My guess is: not this time. The economy is too down, and the war is too unpopular.
Emerson's money point is really my big hope. I think the hard right will vote for McCain, as I said, but I don't think they'll be sending him a lot of money in the meantime. His campaign may limp along half-broke all the way to November. Whereas Obama is rolling in it. If I saw more predictions emphasizing this point, I'd feel a lot better.
Also, far too many projections of an Obama victory seem to depend to some extent on depressed turn-out among the hard-right base (due to dissatisfaction with McCain).
I don't think turnout will be down much, but dollars might. Didn't a lot of W's support come from churches doing fundraising?
I don't think Obama will win on the Iraq war, but the economy is in the toilet, getting worse, and while I think McCain's a stronger general election candidate that many think, it's an uphill battle to convince people that there's any reason he or his party should be trust with running more than a minimart.
expectations management is good for the heart
I like the Celtic's chances in game 7...
I just don't think America's ready to elect a Muslim Marxist who can't bowl. Especially not against a non-partisan Maverick war hero.
Holy shit that's funny. And perhaps even truer when one remembers that the Muslim Marxist cares about the price of arugula.
the short version is that I just don't think America's ready to elect a Muslim Marxist who can't bowl.
That's possible, maybe even likely. But admit that at this point that it's more an article of faith than anything else. If you want Obama to win, repeating it over and over sounds pretty damn self-defeating. Maybe wait until Obama actually loses the election to chalk his defeat up to racism, eh?
Never mind who's going to be president -- what to do about a blog named after Unf and Ogged, neither of whom actually blogs at it?
"Unfogged" should appear at the top of the page sous rature. "Inadequate, yet necessary" -- truer words were never spoken.
The economy does also give me hope, in a depressing sort of way. That and money are the big pluses for Obama. I hope they're enough, but I don't see it.
16:However: have no definite information, but it may be that the new Dem Congressmen will be disproportionately Blue Dogs and "moderates", in which case I still might be fucked.
No "might" about it. Obama's job is to get elected and use the bully pulpit and raw power to generate a new kind of Republican in swing congressional districts. More libertarian, probably. As the majority party with incumbency, Democrats will not be able to really change their own marginal ideological makeup.
18:Ten cities hit by al Qaeda nukes + the Very Bad Thing That Must Not Be Imagined for Obama = McCain vs very shaky Sebellius? All sorts of scenarios are possible.
But most probably a Quiet Desperation & Sorrow for 12 years or until I go.
So am I really the only who feels like McCain has -- to this point -- been running just a terrible, terrible campaign? Obviously there are a lot of institutional barriers that a Democratic, especially a black one with a funny name, has to overcome, but look, people hate the GOP, the war, gas prices, everything right now, and the GOP nominated a weak-ass candidate. The guy fucks up like every day, he can't raise money, he gives terrible speeches, he can't remember what he's supposed to support, he doesn't know how to use a computer; if ever there were a time for cautious optimism this seems like it.
Knock on wood, obviously.
"Had I know that I would be running for office one day, I would never have killed them. Political candidates are put under a magnifying class, and their tiniest mistakes are are puffed up into major scandals."
"Those hookers were obviously taken out of context."
I'll concede that McCain has been running a terribel campaign. (And Obama a good one.)
The Democratic base might liove the idea of withdrawal, but it's not going to go over well with the rest of the voters.
Brock, these are national, not Democratic numbers:
"All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?"
Worth it - 34, Not worth it - 63, Unsure 3. These numbers are essentially unchanged since January 07.
"Do you think the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties; OR, do you think the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there?"
Keep forces - 41, Withdraw forces - 55, Unsure - 4. Again, almost no motion in these numbers *at all* in a year and a half.
Right, also everybody hates the war. That's a key point.
Are the "new bloggers" the lurkers who used to email ogged and tell him how right he was?
Oh, c'mon people. Barring craziness, it will be a landslide for Obama. Read yesterday that the Obama campaign is seriously targeting resources to Georgia and Montana (SD? one impossible Western state). Landslide strategy.
Pocketbooks, bad war, great candidate vs loser . Don't worry about race or smears.
The Democratic base might liove the idea of withdrawal, but it's not going to go over well with the rest of the voters.
Then why do consistent majorities of the American electorate poll in favour of setting a withdrawal deadline since at least the beginning of 2007?
45: Heh. The new bloggers agree with Brock.
45: Look, if they reveal all the bloggers at once, they'll have nothing for the November sweeps or the series finale.
Then why do consistent majorities of the American electorate poll in favour of setting a withdrawal deadline since at least the beginning of 2007?
Because nobody actually wants to be put their neck out on the outcome. That's why we elect leaders. How do you explain away the numbers in 42?
Not wholly OT. The artist plagiarist known as Box Turtle Ben has an op-ed in a not-so-major newspaper, explaining why wayward conservatives should prefer McCain to Obama. It is quite bad, but the comments are IMHO interesting.
So am I really the only who feels like McCain has -- to this point -- been running just a terrible, terrible campaign?
No, not at all. He's running a terrible campaign. Not unlike the campaign he ran for the GOP nomination. Remember when he was written off as out of the race, because he had almost no money and had to lay off a bunch of staff and was driving around the country in a bus because he couldn't afford to fly? Romney outspent him by how many millions, but it's McCain who got the nomination.
I think Obama can win. But I also believe McCain is a stronger candidate than many want to realize. It's going to be a tight race. No landslide victory.
The economy is key. People KNOW the Democrats are more likely to help them when times are tough. And they know Obama is a Democrat. The wedge-type stuff loses its power in those circumstances, especially with the Republican brand so fucked.
Was anybody else loving Obama's instant smackdown on McCain when the Repubs tried the old red-baiting, pro-terrorist line? I'm not going to be lectured by the people who let Bin Laden get away! Obama really learned from Kerry -- supposedly they met and Kerry told him to respond same-day to everything. Did you notice McCain had no response that made the news? Every time McCain says boo about anything, tie him to Bush's fuckups on that issue. I love it.
On Iraq, I'm not worried about it hurting Obama in the election, I'm much more worried he gets convinced to continue the occupation after he gets elected.
We've been through a long primary where campaign strategy mattered a great deal, because the candidates were fairly close on the issues, at least viewed in the broad terms of the electoral aggragate, however many fine-grained differences we observed between them.
From here on to November the election will be about the situation, a referendum as always on how things are going and feel. Either Democrat would have run about the same campaign, although the results might differ somewhat—new states in play vs. Appalachia. It matters of course how big the margin is and how many seats are picked up in Congress, but the general result will not be a consequence of campaign strategy and tactics to anywhere near the same extent.
I'm familiar with the polling in 42, and of course it's encouraging. I'm just not sure I believe it. Maybe I've just spent too much time talking to crazy people recently, I don't know. But it seems every moderate-ish "swing" voter I know is leaning towards McCain this year.
I've confirmed the existence of a new blogger who said "whitey" from the Unfogged main page. They're withholding it till October.
I meant, Obama learned from observing Kerry's mistakes, I'm sure he didn't need Kerry to tell him how to be aggressive. But I thought that meeting was cool -- Kerry learned from his mistakes too.
I actually think it would have been extremely tough for a Dem to win in 04, I don't think it was all Kerry's fault.
But it seems every moderate-ish "swing" voter I know is leaning towards McCain this year.
That's a really depressing thought.
We need to be careful not to believe our own press releases. I am cautiously optimistic but since we hang out with people who share our beliefs it is easy to start thinking that everybody feels the same way I do.
The hard-core Republicans we've been talking about are the authoritarian followers. They are about 25% of the population, and they usually can be counted on to vote.
The real key to this election is the ultra-rich, the powers behind the scenes. They are backing both parties, of course, but usually they back the Republicans more.
If they are smart they will back Obama this time - to forestall the revolution for another four to eight years. They know what to do when the Democrats are in power - start carping about how the government needs to cut back and balance the budget. David Broder, for example, has already started that.
The bell-weather for this election will be the actions of the shills for the ultra-rich. If Limbaugh gives only mediocre support to McCain you'll know which way the wind is blowing.
The guy fucks up like every day, he can't raise money, he gives terrible speeches, he can't remember what he's supposed to support, he doesn't know how to use a computer ...
... his new logo is even duller than the old one.
McCain = Hoover 32, Nixon 60, Ford, Bush I. He has nothing, nothing. The weakness of the Republican field vs the greatness of the Dems, the mess of the McCain vs the Obama machine.
Look, I am a weird kinda determinist, in which I think we have Obama because it was time for Obama, and we have McCain etc. Base determines superstructure in a very vulgar way. The base ain't gonna get us a progressive, but will get us a landslide.
And then the base may get bad enough to force Obama to be more progressive. But I think the technocrats are too good, they will manage to postpone the catastrophe.
It's going to be a tight race. No landslide victory.
I've thought that too, but the electoral-vote.com poll map is currently at 317-221 Obama, and that's with McCain taking Florida.
56 is right on.
The interesting campaign strategy stuff is all on the Republican side. I think they need to wake up and pull HARD away from Bush to win. Almost position themselves as a new, third alternative to played-out Republican and Democrats, go for the Perot vote. But it looks like McCain might be too locked in on policies to do that. On one key populist issue where he could distance from Bush -- immigration -- he's completely stuck. Extending tax cuts for the rich and cutting domestic government spending is a terrible place to be right now too.
64: Wow, that's a really terrible logo. I kind of liked his old one once he stopped using black and white.
64: It's amusing to me how much importance they must ascribe to the candidate's logo if they're changing themes this late in the campaign.
Who was it (Becks, maybe?) that felt so strongly last year about Obama's logo being to weak?
Florida: "19 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain ..."
Ohio: "25 percent of those who backed Clinton in the primaries now support McCain ..."
Pennsylvania: "24 percent of the voters who supported Clinton in the primaries now back McCain ..."
If those hardcore Hillary supporters were aware of this story or perhaps this story, they might have second thoughts. Here are testimonials from those who knew McCain:
Ted Sampley, who fought with US Special Forces in Vietnam and is now a leading campaigner for veterans' rights, said: 'I have been following John McCain's career for nearly 20 years. I know him personally. There is something wrong with this guy and let me tell you what it is - deceit.
Ross Perot, who paid her medical bills [referring to McCain's first wife, Carol] all those years ago, now believes that both Carol McCain and the American people have been taken in by a man who is unusually slick and cruel - even by the standards of modern politics. 'McCain is the classic opportunist. He's always reaching for attention and glory,' he said.
A hat tip to Echidne and her followers for these links.
60.2: It was more the fault of a party that was still in the throes of DLC-style thinking and campaigning, a mode of thinking that dies hard even now.
I'm much more worried he gets convinced to continue the occupation after he gets elected.
Are you kidding? When Obama looks at $200 oil during a recession in 2009, he is gonna take a chance on $300-400 oil? Declaring an intention to withdraw would spike oil $50 overnight. We are not leaving Iraq for 6-12 years, until we get some demand destruction like early 80s.
70: I wouldn't take anything Ted Sampley says seriously. The guy's a nutcase and a complete douchebag, besides. But, you can find other, less loony Republicans who will say the same thing.
Declaring an intention to withdraw would spike oil $50 overnight.
Very short-term, maybe, as a manifestation of dumb panicky stock-trader herd behaviour, but since it's mostly the occupation that has spiked oil prices to begin with -- since it plunged one of the world's top oil-producing countries into constant war at a time when global production on the whole is plateauing -- I don't see how that would last. Unless one actually buys the assumption that American presence is reducing chaos, which one shouldn't.
64: The new one looks like a logo for a tractor company.
You can't imagine how humiliating it was to me when I learned that this blogular institution would be hiring new bloggers and I wasn't even approached. I could compete with any of your so-called "new bloggers" in terms of underproduction -- indeed, I've only done one post at the execrable Weblog in the past year.
Expect to hear more from me in coming days, perhaps even coming hours. I've got nothing but time.
This made me laugh very hard:
It's not just one tranny hooker, Apo. There are three to five of them cued up ready to roll.
Declaring an intention to withdraw would spike oil $50 overnight.
Everything spikes oil. Risk premium! Risk premium! There's a new risk now! We can't rely on those people's short-term decisions to tell us what things are worth.
It's amusing to me how much importance they must ascribe to the candidate's logo if they're changing themes this late in the campaign.
McCain admitted to (the odious) Charlie Gibson that the Republican Party has "brand problems." It's even more amusing if the campaign changed logos because they think that's their candidate's biggest problem.
77: It's probably racism, Winston. You're Jamaican, right?
My mother was Jamaican, but my father was Hungarian, as indicated by the surname "Codpiece."
Don't worry about Obama losing. Worry about how much he'll suck once he wins.
(Though that's funny, I always thought "Codpiece" was Romanian. The more you learn.)
Yeah, Brock is wrong. This is in the bag. Obama will probably get around 350 EVs. The evidence is that people vote on "what have you done for me lately". The Republicans have fucked everything up for everyone lately.
What do we mean by landslide? A big electoral vote win seems plausible; a huge popular vote margin less so. Are we talking about 1996, or 1984/1972/1964? The latter seems impossible; the former seems like a best case scenario but not nuts. (Of Clinton's 1996 states, only WV, KY, TN, & AZ seem unwinnable--maybe also Arkansas--but Obama conceivably could peel off Virginia, Colorado, maybe North Carolina or Montana if things go really well. Though I think that leaves him with a smaller electoral margin because of population changes).
Ted Sampley. Not one of North Carolina's finest.
85: I get that all the time! I wish people would get better at identifying the provenance of various surnames, because I get tired of snapping the left pinky fingers of all those who make that mistake, carrying out the standard punishment for misidentifying a Hungarian as a Romanian.
Are you trolling? Everyone knows that there's no difference between Hungarians and Romanians. Insisting there is a difference is Hungarian nationalist propaganda.
75- You're right that CW on withdrawal consequences has been way too presumptuous. But two questions. Would Obama be willing to take the outcome risk? I don't think so. Also, has the rise of oil prices itself raised the chaos possibility?
The evidence is that people vote on "what have you done for me lately". The Republicans have fucked everything up for everyone lately.
No, Bush has fucked everything up for everyone. That's why tax-and-spender liberals like Bush need to go, and conservatives need to finally be allowed some say in where this country goes.
Don't laugh! It could work!
75:What do the Saudis and OPEC do when Shia Iraq comes back online (as big an assumption as the opposite)? Go into a price war? Whoops, many think there is no more excess capacity. If I am the Saudis, I leave mine in the ground, get as high a price as possible, and finance 4th gen in Basra & Kirkuk.
Only thing gonna bring oil down is demand destruction.
sorry, F. we love you, but we just don't think the blog commenters are ready for a black blogger.
90: Everyone knows that there's no difference between Hungarians and Romanians.
I think Codpiece is going to have to snap something much more painful in recompense for that insult. I don't envy you.
The political thread seems like a good place to link this guy's recommendation that the media should drop out.
Also, has the rise of oil prices itself raised the chaos possibility?
Hard to say. One worrisome possibility is that in the face of extended high prices a couple of big players (e.g. Saudi) promise to up production (already done in that case) but in the end can't deliver it. This is plausible, and would gut faith in the industry and lead to all sorts of crazy, I think.
Insisting there is a difference is Hungarian nationalist propaganda.
All part of an insidious plot to increase enrollments in Hungarian languauge classes. 'No, really! It's like, a Romance language!'
Only thing gonna bring oil down is demand destruction.
AKA the complete collapse of the world economy.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Well, not until things get much worse. Petroleum trade press wonders - gasoline - $6-7/gallon?
Well, yah! The only real question is how soon.
87:1980?
I don't know, experience tells me that when a win looks pretty certain, and it does, people tend to underestimate the margins and coattails. The last weekend motivation for Republican turnout will fall precipitously, and the polls become irrelevant.
This is plausible, and would gut faith in the industry and lead to all sorts of crazy, I think.
You mean like extreme price fluctuations as minor disruptions meet inelastic demand? You mean like the US using military force to make the oil producers "share" more of their production with us? For the global good of course?
Seems to me predicting that kind of crazy is what earned me my nickname.
You want Obama to win? Dress him up like Tiger Woods and send him to Nascar races throughout the land to explain how the hajj is just like a car race (everyone goes in circles for a while and the TV highlights are the crashes).
Only thing gonna bring oil down is demand destruction.
There's some oil futures speculation in current prices, but otherwise this is very true. Alternate fuel sources is too costly to implement such that oil will be the least expensive energy option for some time.
Also, with alternate fuels have considerable consequences such as ethanol on food supply or wind energy on land use. So conservation is the only viable option in reducing oil dependency, short-term or short.
That said, the market still depends on the American consumer and certain major suppliers still depend on the US for security, so oil prices will still need to be within some market capability, although I have no idea what that over/under is.
The real key to this election is the ultra-rich, the powers behind the scenes.
There are reasons I'm encouraged. The rich know what side their bread is buttered on, and even they have hearts when they feel confident about a candidate's intellectual and policy bona fides. Obama's extremely academic, well-known and center-left economic advisors help him enormously here. They give anyone who is intelligent, rich, and legitimately concerned about government mismanagement (and at least somewhat credentialist, which most are) reassurance that someone at the top is thinking very seriously about unintended consequences and the existing empirical evidence before they implement something.
AKA the complete collapse of the world economy.
Electric cars, re-urbanization, mass transit, conversion from carbon. I mostly meant demand destruction in the US, and I mentioned the early 80s, which hurt like bloody hell and had catastrophic political consequences, but did not involve the destruction of the world economy. It meant the rapid rise of Japan.
China may be ok, as they sell us the electric cars, trains, and solar panels, financed as before with the purchase of dollar debt instruments that we will use to rebuild infrastructure. China still has the flexibility to retool.
Anti-Hungarian sentiment gave Iliescu, Tudjman, and Mečiar an easy platform for demagoguery. Had it not been for the Yugoslav wars, which provided a cautionary warning, Hungarian-Romanian spats would be no joke now. Even today, a Hungarian accent makes it hard to find reasonably-priced lady companionship in Timisoara.
I supported FWC3 for "new blogger", but Lizardbreath and Apo shouted me down.
105:by "catastrophic" I always meant radical change, not necessarily bad and this time, unlike the 80s, it would mean the good guys grab the long term trendlines.
But don't care about Obama. Just as Norquist & Gingrich (and the DLC) used Reagan to build institutions and structures to surpass and outlive Reagan, use Obama to go more progressive than Obama would want.
Electric cars - powered by the same source as the water cars and compressed air cars and flywheel cars I presume. So we build huge new power plants for electricity and run them on, what, natural gas? There goes the fertilizer prices. Coal? There goes acid rain and global warming. How long does it take to double our electricity production and distribution?
Re-urbanization - how long will that take?
Mass transit - how long will that take?
Would any of these pro-Clinton career women who aren't fond of Obama listen to Planned Parenthood?
the good guys grab the long term trendlines.
Takes power to shape history. Who has the power?
101: Yeah, pretty much like that. Otoh, I've been saying that for ages, you managed to get an added moniker pretty quick after coming back ... so maybe that was for something else.
107- The ruckus over new bloggers means what about the satisfaction for the current ones? Hmmm.
Yeah, look to Gingrich. Don't attack Obama, attack Republicans, but with language more strident and partisan, and ideals and goals more progressive and less moderate than Obama uses. This will actually help Obama enact whatever moderate measures he has in mind, and build a left for 2012-2016.
As I said, I don't think the base is there yet, is not yet to the left of Obama. After 28 years of bad news, they will settle and accomodate with gratitude for quite a while.
109:Damn there are depressing gloom & doomers around today, burning my mellow.
112:
Why Tripp the Crazed? I think it was for more than peak oil. I think it was for peak oil and my view that it has been the ultrarich since at least WWII shaping world events and I don't see that changing until the Revolution. Well, that plus my prediction that the sustainable world population in the post-oil era will be about three billion.
I think that was it.
I was harshing the Obama buzz. I've become more quiet about it but it still is gonna happen.
The Earth moves.
Would Lizardbreath and Apo happen to be... ROMANIAN?!
91: Would Obama be willing to take the outcome risk? I don't think so.
He doesn't have much of a choice; Iraq is a disastrous financial and military power-sink for the US in ways that have already become obvious. (For all its carnage, Vietnam never sapped at core strengths of the American superpower in anything like the same way.) The political risk of leaving is smaller by far than the manifold risks of staying. And since the rise in oil prices is mostly an artefact of the short-term chaos, no, I don't think it constitutes a closed and inescapable loop.
93: What do the Saudis and OPEC do when Shia Iraq comes back online (as big an assumption as the opposite)?
Actually it's not that big an assumption, and the Saudis and OPEC are probably smarter than to tank their entire relationship with the broader global economy in order to keep the current shortage going. This is particularly true of the Saudis, who face the stark question of what happens to their regime when foreign governments are in too much of a crisis mode to spare them the military aid that keeps them afloat. It's clear even now that if they could up production, they would; they just can't.
103: Actually, the world already sports one viable alternate-fuel economy: Brazil (which has managed it without considerable consequences for crop production, unlike other ethanol producers that could be named). There's reason to believe that oil will remain the least expensive energy option for maybe the next decade.
Holy crap, I think that with Tripp and McManus and a slight input of demand prognostication, Unfogged has now created a Perpetual Comment Machine.
109:Damn there are depressing gloom & doomers around today, burning my mellow.
Sorry for harshing your buzz bob. Toke on.
I'll keep the uncomfortable questions to myself.
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I'm not a huge Olbermann fan, but I am enough of one to be excited to find that his show, in its entirety, is now available on iTunes for free.
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116:"Harshing my mellow" was what I was looking for.
Tripp, the temporary General Election Bob M is trying to be at least a little bit constructive, since the Revolution doesn't look imminent anyway.
I think it was for peak oil and my view that it has been the ultrarich since at least WWII shaping world events
I think it was for an extended peak oil-related rant in the "Timing" thread, which didn't at that point involve any discussion of what role the ultra-rich do or don't play in shaping world events.
Actually, the world already sports one viable alternate-fuel economy: Brazil (which has managed it without considerable consequences for crop production, unlike other ethanol producers that could be named). There's reason to believe that oil will remain the least expensive energy option for maybe the next decade.
Damn you are making my vow of silence hard. Please don't do any in-depth research into the Brazil ethanol topic. For your own peace of mind.
Tune in, turn on, drop out.
Sampley is so bad that the Swift Boat people shunned him. A con man, a fraud, and nuts.
Just for fun I think that I'll also curse the present Unfogged bloggers unto the third and the fourth generation. They were party to this whoredom.
124: Tripp, another thing that earned you the extra moniker was this ugly habit you have of assuming that nobody who disagrees with you can have read anything about the topic.
I suppose if I am to force my way into this so-called "blog" "community," in which w-lfs-n is my only ally, I may as well address the topic at hand.
If Sens. Obama and McCain are truly competing for the much-desired "woman vote," I propose a simple contest -- both are to appear on national television and use their most advanced techniques to give their respective wives orgasms. Scoring will be based on time to first orgasm, total number of orgasms, and variety (clitoral, vaginal, squirting, etc.).
Then women will know which of them really understands their needs. I mean, sure, McCain can call his wife a cunt, but does he know what to do with her cunt?
120:Yu weren't here when I was using the oildrum analysis to not only predict 2 billion in 2100, but to predict the start of population decline, and not in a pretty family planning way, within a decade.
But Obama is the best we got for a couple months. and we might as well take a break from reality.
118:I think you are wrong. What I think the Saudis have realized is that PO has arrived, and that the market can bear a whole lot of demand destruction in certain areas (SUV's) while the developing nations will take up the slack. Iraq will come online at $200, and it goes up from there.
There will be no peace dividend. None.
They were party to this whoredom.
It ain't a party if there ain't no whoredom.
(I brought my own mashed potatoes, thank you very much.)
Again, very funny:
(everyone goes in circles for a while and the TV highlights are the crashes)
Soon I will only post LOLs. Because Ogged is not around to ban them.
Bob is right, Tripp. He's way crazier than you.
There are reasons I'm encouraged. The rich know what side their bread is buttered on,
Rupert Murdoch has basically endorsed Obama.
Obama's extremely academic, well-known and center-left economic advisors help him enormously here.
Obama's economic advisors are center-center, not center-left.
Bob,
Tripp, the temporary General Election Bob M is trying to be at least a little bit constructive, since the Revolution doesn't look imminent anyway.
Ah. Carry on then.
DS Tripp, another thing that earned you the extra moniker was this ugly habit you have of assuming that nobody who disagrees with you can have read anything about the topic.
Oh, sorry to assume. I was just having trouble reconciling your citation of Brazil as a model for the US without mentioning the relative sizes of their economies and ecological concerns such as deforestation and global warming.
FWC3's liberal ameliorism betrays him when he calls for the candidates to use their "most advanced" techniques—he wants only the flash of the new, the high-tech, as if that can solve our deep-seated problems. No, I say, if there is to be a fuckoff, let it be a traditional fuckoff: then we will see the real core strengths of the candidates. We will not bar advanced techniques, but we will not be taken in by their false promise, either.
(I brought my own mashed potatoes, thank you very much.)
Always the safer bet.
it has been the ultrarich since at least WWII shaping world events
Ah, the good old days. Back when the rich were idle and there was leisure to ride to the hunt.
Tripp, when and why did you take a vow of silence?
134: Sex is and always has been a meritocracy, w-lfs-n. If she brings a knife, you bring a gun.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
This doesn't square neatly with the fact that demand destruction is already occurring in the UK, does it? Gasoline demand is highly price-inelastic, but about 18 months of higher prices seems to be doing it in the U.S., too, although not to the extent one would like to see.
OK, I'm going to sleep. there better be some new content when I wake up, motherfuckers, or I'm throwing my lot in with ben and f. winston codpiece III. change you can believe in!
F. Winston, you're not going to be a front-page blogger here no matter how much you suck up.
I was just having trouble reconciling your citation of Brazil as a model for the US
Because it obviously follows from saying that Brazil has a viable biofuels economy either to saying that I think that economy is "a model for the US," or that I think it comes free of ecological consequences. Oh wait, no it doesn't, that would be your malfunctioning telepathy again.
132:
"Rupert Murdoch has basically endorsed Obama."
Amazing how little editorial control he exercises--he seems incapable of getting Fox NOT to say something horribly offensive about Obama or his wife requiring a public apology every single week. Poor Rupert.
God, what a crock. The primaries are over, PGD, not to mention that you occasionally claimed to support Obama for the nomination.
Obama's economic advisors are center-center, not center-left.
True. I think it says something about the drastic shifting of the Overton window when I consider Obama's economic advisers to be center-left simply because they're ok with an expanded government healthcare program and have actually bothered to do meta-analyses of the effect of higher tax rates on national productivity and tax income.
I dunno... I guess I'd consider them center-center according to me, but they're certainly left of current political discourse. They just advise proceeding in a way that does not contravene solid economic theory and/or evidence.
DS, isn't your token responsibility here threatening to burn shit down? What's this reasonableness shit?
Sampley is so bad that the Swift Boat people shunned him. A con man, a fraud, and nuts.
Woohoo ! And he's on our side this time ! That rocks ! Liberals are finally addressing the Conman/Fraud/Nuts Gap !
For all its carnage, Vietnam never sapped at core strengths of the American superpower in anything like the same way.
I think you have this backwards. The morale of the military was at it absolute lowest just after Viet Nam. Race riots in the barracks, etc. The morale of the military now is actually quite good, because we are "winning". Now other events such as the state of economy are not as bad as 1973, but just wait.
although not to the extent one would like to see.
The extend one would like to see is really difficult to imagine in the US. There is a small amount of elasticity that is currently being taken up, but that's tiny compared to the use we're stuck with unless there are major structural changes .
141: That's why I bring a gun!
I'd prefer demand destruction to be relentless, and unmistakable but slow enough to allow people to adjust, however painfully. However emotionally satisfying it is to imagine the hulks of SUVs pulled by starving horses, the impact on the defenseless will be far worse. Current trends, about a dollar a gallon a year, seem to be doing the trick without slaughtering the weak.
A big country like ours will need a lot more rail, even though it has more now than any other large country. MY had a good piece a few days ago explaining that high speed rail was not likely in the Midwest because there is so much freight usage of the existing track, which would need to be dedicated and upgraded. My daughter has sometimes been hours late on Amtrak because of the training having to wait for freight traffic to clear.
145: Well, I did consider threatening to burn shit down if I wasn't named a front-page blogger, but then I realized the only shit I could burn would be on the urban prairie and nobody would give a shit.
God, what a crock. The primaries are over, PGD, not to mention that you occasionally claimed to support Obama for the nomination.
One of the odd artifacts of the end of the primaries is the continued insistence by some Obama supporters to try to marginalize other Obama supporters.
The new bloggers are in the fruitbasket.
It puts the bloggers in the basket or it gets the in-joke again.
It's the thought that counts, DS.
DS, I believe I am detecting a conspiracy to silence our unique Hungarian voices.
132: PGD, you don't follow links much, do you? (hint hint, Murdoch's interview is in 104)
143: It is weird. I think Murdoch is also more resigned to Obama taking the presidency than he is welcoming it. Murdoch spoke very well of Obama, and gave some problems he personally has with McCain, but he may not feel enough of a preference to really root out all the institutionalized rabid anti-Democrat sentiment at Fox News. It would be a super-hard slog with those bigoted fuckers, it would damage ratings for sure, and he would probably still want to reverse it all and go lowest-common-denominator right-wing in just 4-8 years anyway. I can kind of see why, from the same sick and twisted point of view that first dreamed up Fox News as a good idea, it just wouldn't be worth the effort to help a candidate that's marginally preferred.
However emotionally satisfying it is to imagine the hulks of SUVs pulled by starving horses, the impact on the defenseless will be far worse.
I have to say that if anyone actually finds this emotionally satisfying, they're a dick.
Just wanted to get that out there.
151: What if you had a riot, and no one cared?
I was crossing the prairie provinces when the Iraq War started, and as I remember shit was burning down on the northern horizon the whole time.
OK, I'm going to sleep. there better be some new content when I wake up, motherfuckers, or I'm throwing my lot in with ben and f. winston codpiece III. change you can believe in!
In a Zombie Stras administration, we'd already have multiple comicsblogging posts up, complete with gratuitous robot drawings.
The extent one would like to see is really difficult to imagine in the US.
It's extra-specially difficult to imagine if McCain gets elected and guts passenger rail, which he's said is a personal priority. You're already starting to see some structural changes kick in as the exurbs are slowly abandoned by anyone who can afford to move; I kind of assumed that the gleaming monorail future wouldn't be accompanied by homeless squats in Orange County, but maybe we're just getting the Max Headroom future instead.
Also 150 makes the good point that outside of the East Coast, the fact that Amtrak has to share the rail with freight means Amtrak is a pain in the ass. Traveling between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh is something like a seven-hour trip that usually takes ten due to a) having to twiddle its train-thumbs at Harrisburg for an hour and b) any delay (weather, cows, breakdown) increasing the likelihood it'll get stuck behind another freight train.
I have to say that if anyone actually finds this emotionally satisfying, they're a dick.
It's dickish to do that to horses, sure.
Obama Foreign Policy Working Group
Bleh. I'll keep hoping for the stealth Obama until he starts making policy.
Depressingly, there is not a single innovative, controversial, outside-the-box thinker on this list. Where is the intellectual challenge and vitality? It appears the events of the past seven years, and the deep, systematic failure of the entire US foreign policy establishment during that time, have forced no substantive reevaluations of the broad direction of US foreign policy, have provoked no move away from complacent continuity with the past, and have not had the slightest influence on the thinking of government leaders....one of the very good guys. Better by far than me. Damn.Personally, I feel like all of the energy I put into thinking about and writing about foreign policy has been a failure, and an utter waste of time. Why even bother any more?
Posted by Dan Kervick | June 18, 2008 11:11 AM
Time to walk the dogs in the woods.
Nice little link in my inbox this morning: McCain's position on abortion is pushing a "critical bloc" of women voters towards Obama.
It is pleasing to see how unconvincing the Obama skeptics are. I worry about November, too, but McCain basically got the nomination by default - Romney was his major competitor, if you can believe it.
To the extent that this is a "base" election, McCain is going to be crushed. There's not much he can do to convince the evangelicals that he's one of them; and the money-cons, in the long run, know on which side their bread is buttered. They won't be enthusiastically backing him, either. He's got the war-cons, the overt racists, and whoever he can fool. I don't think he can get to 50% with that coalition this year.
In addition to all of his structural advantages, Obama has run the best campaign since Clinton '92. I expect that to continue.
And it's hard to see events breaking in McCain's favor. Even after the "victory" of the surge, people still want out of Iraq, and it's hard to see the economy turning around in a convincing fashion.
And unlike Obama, McCain hasn't really been, ahem, vetted. Wait until people find out his record on abortion, and get focused on the current status of the Supreme Court, for example.
I imagine once-upscale homeless families parking the SUVs they no longer can afford to drive in trailer parks with pay-by-the-hour bathroom facilities. And I laugh my hideous laugh. And I look at the ragged ex-suburban ex-princes and ex-princesses playing in the mud with little toys they made for themselves out of twigs and used duct tape, and I laugh more hideously still.
Ohio is in early planning stages of a passenger rail network. That was true 10 years ago too, but now the commission states that there's buyin to the cost:benefit analysis for linking the biggest cities, which was not true 10 years ago. Another 10 years for rights-of-way, and 10 more to build.
Also, does anyone know whether chips exist yet to adjust engine timing so that a big engine can be run with some cylinders disabled? Should be a cheap fix that would lower the cost of an SUV. Turning off the car AC is easier, though, and people don't seem to be doing much of that yet.
My mother was Jamaican
Whee, I'm Jamaican! Maybe now I can camp with DS.
McCain's position on abortion is pushing a "critical bloc" of women voters towards Obama.
It was always really surprising to me the number of people who just didn't believe me when I told them how anti-choice McCain's record was. The fact that talking heads were always suggesting that McCain was winking and didn't really mean it* is part of it, I'm sure.
* Which is true to an extent, I suppose. McCain doesn't seem to care about a great deal other than a more aggressive military posture, shaping kids up by having them do a stint in the military, and the greater glory of John McCain. This explains both why he flirted with becoming a Democrat and cheerfully threw his statements about the Christian right overboard. Also, why he doesn't understand his own climate change policy.
I'm not really worried about a McCain win (still, 2004 surprised me; a McCain win and I'll give up on the whole thing as a mugs' game). What's more worrying is an Obama win where he either cannot or does not do anything really effective to roll back much of the more egregious policy of the last decades.
OTOH, contra Kervick:
Iraq Exit Strategy Brian Downing, military-political pundit, at the Agonist
Obama must first of all assemble a solid, realist foreign policy team. He must avoid the temptation and the pressure from within his party and retinue to fill the positions of Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, the National Security Council, and Vice President with figures whose records indicate philosophical opposition to war and to military force. Such personnel will only hinder efforts to get out of Iraq and strengthen the backlash afterwards. Instead, most of those posts should be filled with realists whose backgrounds reflect experience in strategic analysis, the military, and intelligence - as well as strong opposition to neo-conservative interventionism
Ooooh, tricksy stealth Obama. Don't lose hope.
guts passenger rail, which he's said is a personal priority.
I love this. What a brilliant, relevant, and well considered priority to have.
they're a dick
I think so too, but there is at least a schadenfreude about distress presumed to fall hardest on suburbanites which you can detect in some writing about energy and urbanism. A satisfaction in long-predicted ruin finally happening. My problem is thinking whom the change will really fall hardest on, and I'm thinking it'll be the poor, already driving marginal and inefficient vehicles great distances. And the economic impacts will hurt the mere existence of employment opportunities, assuming you can get to them somehow.
The Kunstler faction insists the post-energy future will be a happier, healthier place, but "by the time the fat man is thin, the thin man is dead."
167: You can adjust the curves and cycles, but you can't make those engines really fuel efficient, to much weight being thrown around, too much displacement. Particularly in stop-and-go, you need to dribble a lot of fuel just to keep them turning over. They're also too heavy, and poor aerodynamics, so highway is always a problem.
For that matter, on top of AC, dropping from 70mph to 60mph and keeping your tires properly inflated will make a huge difference for most drivers (SUV or no)
I imagine once-upscale homeless families parking the SUVs they no longer can afford to drive in trailer parks
Already happening in LA, in the thousands. Exactly so, except an old stadium lot, IIRC. It's an official Hooverville.
Link was at Rittholz or CR, I think.
147: Though the military overstretch is non-trivial and the talk of "winning" as empty as ever, actually I was talking about "core strengths" like America's place at the uncontested summit of world finance (guaranteed by minting the world's reserve currency) which ultimately makes the phenomenon of the American military juggernaut possible.
155: There shall be a great snapping of pinkies, until our voice is heard!
What a brilliant, relevant, and well considered priority to have.
such is pretty much bog-standard for the current GOP.
170 speaks for me, also, in its entirety.
In case y'all haven't seen fivethirtyeight, it has become my favorite poll interpretation site. I haven't got that statistical chops to really judge its methods, but it seems pretty sophisticated.
It was always really surprising to me the number of people who just didn't believe me when I told them how anti-choice McCain's record was.
This has been my experience, too. I think a lot of people heard 'maverick, anti-Bush' and 'doesn't get along well with the religious right' and assumed that he must be pro-choice, because if he were pro-life, he'd get along fine with them.
In a Zombie Stras administration, we'd already have multiple comicsblogging posts up, complete with gratuitous robot drawings.
168: We can all have an Unfoggedtarian-Jamaican Self-Discovery Retreat in the Kananaskis Country.
Oh, speaking of Iraq: the mega-bases, that weird elephant in the room that the press seemed awfully reticent to talk about, are finally starting to come out in the open.
The Kananaskis is a great place to camp!
and assumed that he must be pro-choice, because if he were pro-life, he'd get along fine with them.
There is another complementary assumption that people make that is, I think, also highly suspect. Folks think that because McCain is such an anti-choice radical, the Christian Right will be okay with him.
people who just didn't believe me when I told them how anti-choice McCain's record was
I've had this experience as well.
Bitch: Whee, I'm Jamaican! Maybe now I can camp with DS.
I thought you were Hispanic. Will you make up your mind?
183: Also, a fabulous place to be camp. So Labs would have to come.
Bitch is a delightfully transracial category.
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Okay, so this is the most obvious setup to a punchline ever, but: a friend of mine wants to know if there's a blog out there that specializes in helping people get over social awkwardness. Anybody know of such a thing?
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I have to say that if anyone actually finds this emotionally satisfying, they're a dick.
Then my munchkin is a dick, I guess, because the thoughts of people reaping the consequences for their narcissistic decisions to purchase Hummers and similar behemoths comforts her in an age of $4 gas.
Hey! You were content to accept the consequences for the environment for the satisfaction of impressing the other 4th graders' dads? Aw, bummer, looks like there are some consequences for you now, too!
You may proceed with the pile-on.
(193 not actually intended as a punchline, though YMMV.)
96- Very interesting, Witt. Obama's platform provides some promise on media issues. In the 90's, McCain pushed through favorable media consolidation legislation. Is that one reason why Big Media reports what McCain means to say rather than what he does say?
In exchange for broadcast rights, broadcasters agree to an obligation to 'give the public public education campaign to include the public perspective and the public interest'. Obama proposes to better define that vague reg. Requiring the networks to televise debates without moderation might be a good start.
190: I was going to suggest this one specifically.
We can all have an Unfoggedtarian-Jamaican Self-Discovery Retreat in the Kananaskis Country.
Hott.
So, where are these new bloggers then, eh?
The world's only down-home, folkish, redneck Unitarians are Hungarians and Hungarian Rumanians.
Although. The fact that all of the new bloggers are apparently still feeling too awkward and shy to throw up a post suggests 193 may be incorrect.
They seem to be having a meetup at Standpipe's blog.
RE: Electoral prognostication, I think bob gets it exactly right in 100.
Obvs. there are unknown unknowns (I guess the tranny hookers now qualify as a known unknown - how many are there?), and Nov. is 4.5 months away, but all signs point to blowout.
Whatever you want to say about the primary, Obama's excellent organization made it a foregone conclusion early, despite its apparent closeness.
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I bicycled 35 miles yesterday, part of it under moderately unfavorable conditions. I stopped at three bars because the fourth bar was closed, but I only had beer at two of them. I saw a bluebird, a possible yellow warbler, and a bobolink, all of which are rare around here. I found a woodtick on my leg right afterwards, and a second one in the middle of the night. I was glad that I didn't have imaginary bigs crawling over my body.
My longest bike was 44 miles last yeat, but I'm aiming for 60 this year.
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It wouldn't have to be tranny hookers. Just white ones.
The yellow warbler is rare where you live? I see them about 500 times as often as the bobolink.
Minnesota is so weird. Even the aging alcoholics ride bikes.
(Come to think of it, that's true of Ventura as well.)
Don't know what the warbler problem is. Maybe too cold.
Our Senate candidates this year will be a comedian, a pro wrestler, and a closeted Hollywood homosexual whose father is an 80 year old sex criminal.
Is Coleman one of those? I don't know anything about him.
Go John!
Iris is back at school Downtown, where none of us works now, so I've been riding her in - other kids are always excited to see her. And I'm rounding into shape nicely.
Yeah, but it is *pleasant* to bike in a place like Ventura.
Coleman is the closeted one. His 80 year old father was arrested for having sex in a car recently. The lady did not meet the 1/2+7 rule.
About 6 months a year biking in MN is wonderful.
80 year old father was arrested for having sex in a car
All things considered, I find this impressive.
Well, it was a big ol' American car, Apo.
I was envying all the bikers last week. Next time I'm in town in the summer, I'm getting a bike somehow.
Also, bizarrely, MN is a much more bike-friendly place tha Ventura. Sad.
That has to be about the least family-values ticket anywhere.
Sure, now that Vito Fossella and Jim Gibbons are retiring.
Well, it was a big ol' American car, Apo.
I will attest that sex in a VW Rabbit, Honda CRX, Daihatsu Charade, or a Saturn SC-2 is possible, but challenging even for the young and limber.
You had sex in a Daihatsu? How did you keep from cracking up?
Honda CRX
... listens attentively
A super-glued helmet away from the big 3 sports sweep, eh Sifu?
22
"... The Democratic base might liove the idea of withdrawal, but it's not going to go over well with the rest of the voters. ..."
It goes over fine with me and I am hardly part of the Democratic base.
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Boy, Rocco's gotta be pretty annoyed about this.
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227: This James B. Shearer person seems interesting.
He beat you out for front page poster.
That calms my troubled spirit to some degree.
No it doesn't. Your troubled spirit is curdling milk way over here.
Our Senate candidates this year will be a comedian
Michael Gerson opwhines about Franken. He says Franken is vulgar!
The Kunstler faction insists the post-energy future will be a happier, healthier place
They do? Maybe I haven't read enough Kunstler, but he never sounds happy about the future when I read him.
Curdling milk shows that I'm calm. When I'm upset, I curdle blood in a way that even the most terrifying scream cannot do. It's an ability I relish, because blood curds are an important part of my diet.
Coleman is closeted? Tell me more . . .
235: blood curd is lovely in Menudo.
234: When things settle down; plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth before that.
DS,
Because it obviously follows from saying that Brazil has a viable biofuels economy either to saying that I think that economy is "a model for the US," or that I think it comes free of ecological consequences. Oh wait, no it doesn't, that would be your malfunctioning telepathy again
I think we are pretty much arguing over a topic we generally agree on. I think we both agree that world population post-oil will drop (maybe we don't agree on the amount) and you are focusing on the "but a sustainable population of people is still good" side of it and I am focusing on the "half the people will die" part of it.
When you bring up Brazil and ethanol I assume you mean that is how we can sustain our current lifestyle, but instead you mean something more like "Look, it's not the end of the world."
My problem is that I am sick of the "happy-talk" advertising that urges "Don't worry, go back to sleep" and I see that in your comments when it isn't there.
I'm tired of seeing advertisements about Iceland and geopower as if the entire world can make hydrogen the same way. I'm tired of hearing about "water cars" with no talk about how the hydrogen is created.
I've read some Kunstler and I think he overstates things but I am also frustrated that most people are being lulled by the other side too.
I see that in your comments when it isn't there
Here, perhaps, is the rub.
240: I think we agree that the transition from the petroleum economy will produce significant upheaval, which in fact is already in its early stages. Whether that in the longer term means an overall drop in population, none of us is in a position to know.
Like I said last time, I can understand (in a way) why conservationists are frustrated by the prospect that new energy sources might take peoples' eye off the conservation ball, but that isn't an excuse for artificially downplaying the realities of alternate energy sources. And like it or not, the reality is that many of these are closer to maturity than the oil industry likes to pretend. They all involve ecological trade-offs -- and the single leading factor will probably be solar, not biofuel or wind or geopower -- but collectively, to be honest, I think the smart money is that they will rule out Peak Oil being in itself the civilization-ending event that many Peak Oil futurists envisage.
Mainly, I don't care for what I've called "Peak Oil eschatology" because it provides -- relying as it does on avoidance of certain realities about energy, and petroleum not being the sine qua non -- the weakest case for conservationism. The strongest case comes not from energy shortage arguments, but from the mass extinction crisis that's killing off the food chain we rely on, and that will still be the civilization-threatening event par excellence no matter what alternative energy mix replaces oil. This is the most truthful and urgent case for conservationism IMO.
240.3: Yes, I've been sensing that. It's understandable.
i read today another funny yahoo news title
saying 'Huckabee urges fellow republicans stop to denigrate Obama' or something close, i cite from memory, forget the exact wording
Men, stop! Don't de-nigrate him! He'll no longer be vulnerable to our racism cloaking devices!
241, 243:
Here, perhaps, is the rub.
I agree. I was trying to figure out what I was doing wrong and I agree this is part of it. I'm sure there are other things I do wrong too. I contain multitudes (of things done wrong).
I know this thread is dead but I was mulling this over last night and I think in general my main frustration is that lately I seem to be out of step with my fellow citizens. I think I am more aware of some things and I am ahead of them on the concern curve, but I could instead be out in right field kicking over dandelions and not know it.
It is like I am a fish becoming aware of the water.
I think there is a huge problem facing us and nobody knows what to do about it and most people are powerless anyway and the people with the power have no solutions so they keep things quiet and make their own preparations.
Perhaps it is my experience with my alcoholic brother that has made me extremely sensitive to "the elephant in the room" that nobody talks about.
Yeah, I think that is it, and I really really hate avoiding problems and pretending they don't exist. My whole career has been built around solving problems and it is very hard for me to sit by and do nothing when I see a problem.
Acceptance will be the last virtue I learn.
And how about this from Georgia:
McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%
"As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr's numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.
"My view is that Georgia, the 9th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential 'swing states,' that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008."
Still think 300 electoral votes is out of reach?
Not if trends like these hold up, no. I'm just inherently pessimistic about the wisdom and open-mindedness of my fellow Americans. But I keep getting pleasantly surprised this cycle, which is nice.
246: There's nothing wrong about giving a shit, and I hope "acceptance" doesn't come to you, quite the reverse.
Though having said that, the problems of advancing genuine conservationism are more daunting by far than those surrounding alternative energy. How do you build a productive solar energy infrastructure? Engineering problem whose solution is already within sight. How do you get billions of members of a species that's generally bad at long-term risk assessment to engage in some long-term risk assessment, like right now? No fucking idea. I don't know, maybe I am somewhat resigned on the latter score.
I seem to be out of step with my fellow citizens.
I know I've been there. Anyone who's been any species of environmentalist or conservationist in the last 30 years should be quite familiar with the sensation of crying in the proverbial wilderness. Much of my obsession with alternative energy (and the ludicrous, destructive perfidy of the oil industry related thereunto) stems from having lived most of my life in the Canadian capital of Big Oil.
249: I agree with every clause in 249, just to be clear.
I mean, if you had said this time last year that the way to put Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina into contention was to nominate a black candidate, I wouldn't have been alone in asking whether you'd adjusted your meds recently.
the Canadian capital of Big Oil.
Calgary?
253: The famous City That Never Sleeps During Stampede, yes.
#247. Also: "McCain Calls Arizona a Swing State".
"In a clear signal that Arizona's 10 electoral votes are up for grabs, the McCain campaign has added Arizona to its list of 24 "battleground states" with their 242 electoral votes."
