Are you exaggerating for effect? So great, either way.
I am not making this up. I skipped blogging this in my first writeup because I thought the assassination angle was depressing but I told this story over dinner the other night and was told I MUST BLOG IT.
Great story, better t-shirt.
In my neighborhood today: a homemade bumper sticker, reading VOTE OBAMA in heavy stencil lettering. But the B was thin, red, and backwards.
Too awesome. I was in too big a hurry to snap a shot.
Last 4 words of 2 get it exactly right.
||
The hard rain is trying, right now, to wash away DC.
|>
The hard rain is trying, right now, to wash away DC.
When Bob Dylan and Travis Bickle agree, they're always right (eventually).
I wonder what the reaction in Pittsburgh is. My mom & sister haven't mentioned anything, but I figure a city that hasn't yet forgiven Bradshaw isn't going to take kindly to being played for a fool.
I should actually write this up someplace outside of comment threads, but it would take research and stuff:
What are the police prepared to do to protect us from a likely spate of serial killings in the event of a McCain defeat? After all, serial killers are mainly white males, and white males are likely to be the only demographic group that will vote for McCain.
Are the police prepared to keep a careful eye on the white men out there and protect the public from this menace?
7: Unfortunately, there's no longer even approximately non-partisan radio left - there used to be a few talk hosts who would take calls from whoever, and weren't afraid to make their own calls. But it seems now that everyone is officially in the tank. So I can't turn on the radio for a take on general response.
My general sense is that, given that even Scaife's Trib expressed skepticism from the get, people will be more annoyed than outraged. Maybe if the story had been taken as true for more than 12 hours.
I don't think anyone views it as an attempt to fool "Pittsburgh". More an attempt to fool the entire world. But there's no real way to find out "what the average person" thinks" anyway.
More like an opportunity for an almost plausible suspension of disbelief. Like tobacco "science" from the 1970s. Any port in a storm on that big river in Egypt.
I don't think anyone views it as an attempt to fool "Pittsburgh".
No, but your city making headlines for some dumbass College Republican can't make anyone happy.
As Nate Silver, put it, "It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes . . . ."
must not count chickens, must not count chickens, . . .
he's voting for "that colored fellow" even though he knows he will be assassinated and, when he is, there are going to be riots in the street and black people around the country will BURN SHIT DOWN and random white people will be pulled from their cars and murdered in retaliation.
There was an odd NPR manperson-on-the-street type of segment a day or two ago with a number of people, black and white, in -- ? Don't remember. In which several people, both black and white, voiced this concern quite seriously, and at length.
Concerns differed as to whether it would be black people burning shit down if Obama loses, or white people attacking blacks if he wins.
I don't want to say that we're avoiding this issue, but we're avoiding this issue. I can't decide how realistic a concern it is; it does occur to me that we might inject some cautionary language into political discussion here and now, speaking of, or to, the aftermath.
President Obama's bodyguard should be selected very carefully.
I'm not talking just about assassination; rather, civil unrest.
civil unrest
I don't know if it's true, but I was told that the one city in the US that did not experience rioting on the night of MLK's assassination was Indianapolis, where Robert Kennedy had made a rather extraordinary extemporaneous speech.
I'm not sure what cautionary language is going to do for us. I too am not sure how serious a possibility any of those scenarios are, and that's exactly why discussing it isn't likely to be very productive. We're not avoiding the issue, we just don't know. How absurd would it be for me to speculate about whether black people would burn shit down if Obama lost?
Also, Becks' grandpa is deeply affecting not least because (reading into it what Becks seems to be suggesting) it seems to say that it's time for the US to get over itself, work through its shit, come hell or high water, for the sake of -- well, here I'm not sure.
Why is McCain really bad, worse than a race war? Foreign policy? Domestic policy?
I don't actually think McCain would be a worse president than Bush. When people say this is the most important election in our lifetimes, I demur; the last one was more important, and we lost it. The one before that was perhaps more important, though we couldn't have known.
This is the most exciting election of my lifetime, fer sure.
18: I know. We don't know; I don't exactly propose that we speculate at length (there lies danger, in an important way). I do think it might not be a bad idea for people to at least have the possibility in mind, and be prepared for cautionary talk.
Hell, my sister in Atlanta is voting for McSame because she believes there will be a race war if Obama wins, no assassination required. Why? Because 'he's an elitist and a racist'.
And she probably approves of Palin's youngest toting a Louis Vuitton bag, as she bought similar things for her daughters when they were 7 years old. [I once admired one of my niece's handbags - when my sister brought me to the boutique where she had bought it, I discovered that it was waaaay above what I'd willingly part with for a purse. And I buy Coach bags, so it's not as if I haven't laid out hundreds on a bag.]
Blume has it right in 18.
Also, it bears mentioning that some people in our country live amdist civil unrest every single day. I find it exhausting enough to read about a new murder or five every single day in the newspaper; it gets worse when I am actively worrying about the safety of friends and colleagues, and worse still when something bad actually happens. And I don't even live at ground zero in one of those neighborhoods.
I don't actually think McCain would be a worse president than Bush.
Are you counting Supreme Court appointments?
And how about the likelihood of the VP having to step in? Cheney is a more politically savvy and dangerous adversary than Palin as far as my policy beliefs and values go, but Palin's a lot likelier to end up President.
24: Witt, I don't quite understand. Are you saying that because our country already experiences class- and race-based strife, we shouldn't talk about it possibly becoming more pronounced if Obama becomes President?
Witt: Life is easier when you don't watch or listen to local news. Also, you may actually have a more balanced picture of the world and the neighborhood you live in.
26: Yeah, sorry, I was more muddled than I meant to be. I'm saying that a) I don't know how to talk about potential "civil unrest" in a productive way, and b) I feel kind of uneasy doing that given that it could be read as implying that we don't have civil unrest going on now.
I'm not articulating this very well, and it's probably because I feel emotionally pretty incoherent about it. I'm coming off a couple of weeks of disturbing ethnic clashes and frightening violence among the young people I work with, and I'm feeling worn out with how much I worry and grieve over them (and my colleagues) already. It's awful to imagine the chaos and uncertainty that they live with every day becoming more widespread.
I love watching the Obama "hope" videos because I want to appreciate the best and most hopeful sides of my country, but they almost always make me cry.
OK, we know that himself looks like his grandfather. The problem is that his grandfather looked like Dr. Strangelove. Forget race riots. We're facing a mineshaft gap. (And we're just the people to fill it.)
Life is easier when you don't watch or listen to local news.
That is totally, emphatically, true with regard to local TV news, which I have voted with my feet and not watched in 15+ years.
Unfortunately, it actually is useful to me to know about specific community issues and trends, and for that reason I do still read the local paper. The gory details of all the crimes, no.
28.last: I want to appreciate the best and most hopeful sides of my country, but they almost always make me cry.
Funnily, or weirdly, or something, I've been trying to decide whether I want to participate in some coordinated election night gathering, and it occurred to me today that I was resisting it because I will probably cry.
As for talking productively about potential civil unrest, people who have experience with public protests know a few things.
The 2004 election turned out to be less important than I expected. Since this election will apparently decide the form that capitalism in America will take for the foreseeable future, it seems like a more important election to me.
32 is strong enough for a man, but made for a woman.
32 is arguably fair. But only arguably so. It also reveals that Walt's principal concern is with the future course of capitalism in this country (really, globally). This should not be a surprising revelation. It also really is arguably the most important issue on the table.
It's more important now, anyhow.
38: Not exactly. We're worried about war with Iran? See globalized capitalism for the structure of middle east relations.
I'm trying, god knows why, to make Walt's argument for him: but I confess, it's not quite working for me.
but I confess, it's not quite working for me.
Perhaps your most perceptive comment of all time!
I really am expecting a scene like the one in Paris when France won the World Cup for the first time. Impromptu brass bands on the street corners, young people dancing in the baroque fountains, and little ol' me climbing up the Bastille monument and smooching some random guy on the top. Brooklyn, at least, is going to par-tay when Obama wins.
Yes, I said "when" not "if." Yes, we can.
Since this election will apparently decide the form that capitalism in America will take for the foreseeable future
Nah, not yet, maybe 2012.
Not enough creative destruction or civil unrest. The social relations of capital still remain untouched.
Little ol' me climbing up the Bastille monument and smooching some random guy on the top.
We demand a photo.
I'm trying to figure out what the Brooklyn equivalent of the Bastille monument is.
We were all way too drunk to be taking photos.
There's the Grand Army Plasa Arch, but I doubt that any decent party would end up in that neighborhood.
In my Red State hellhole I'm having a party of liberals for Election Nights. Most of them are parents, so I'm having trouble figuring out how the drunkenness and the children will fit together. I figure that losing a few children is a small price to pay for the End of the Bush Era.
Dystopian Perspective on the Coming Global Recession
The IMF only has $200 billion for Keynesian stimulus for the 80 countries outside the G-20. But 40 of those countries are essential to the globalized economy. Vietnam has feeder and parts factories.
The sucker is goin' down. Even Krug can't see it yet.
Even Richard of AL, who thinks the elite will hold on. It won't.
When we look like Pakistan above, the new social relations will begin to form. Cheers.
I'm not worried about Pakistan. They have nukes and will be able to defend themselves.
Dystopian Perspective on the Coming Global Recession
so I'm having trouble figuring out how the drunkenness and the children will fit together
Shouldn't be a problem; kids don't need much.
OT: 46: M/tch, I don't know what went on there, but I'm not yet inclined to shut up around here in general, so let's just avoid each other. Apologies to everyone else.
You wanna pitch in for a new laptop, W-lfs-n?
For thirty years, we have been moving peasant farmers to the city, where they make carburators for Toyotas.
Now they have lost their jobs, and no longer have the land or skills to farm. The farms have been changed to factory farms to ship tangerines to San Diego. San Diego ain't buying.
It's an old story, now completely globalized. I don't know what's gonna happen. Probably war.
Walt, I was just this evening at a party (well, an event) that had a bunch of drunk people, a bunch of little kids running around, and a bunch of art, some of which was being sold and taken down off the walls and waved around. Went fine. The kids just needed enough room to run around in and some crayons (and a designated place to use 'em).
It would be hard to argue that the 2004 election was more important than the 1932 election. Or the 1964 election. Or arguably even the 1980 election, which if it has gone the other way we might have been spared most of the worst aspects of the past 38 years. The past four years have been pretty awful, but not as awful as I was expecting. I'm pleasantly surprised we never nuked any suspected nuclear weapons sites in Iran, for example. Social Security was not abolished. Iraq did not collapse as completely as I expected.
The thing that's hard to judge is the economic collapse. Would things have unfolded differently under a President Kerry? I currently think probably not.
the past 38 years
28 years. For a second I thought I was a lot older than I am.
Au contraire. This election has aged us all an extra 10 years.
You wanna pitch in for a new laptop, W-lfs-n?
You can't imagine how much I want to.
I really am expecting a scene like the one in Paris when France won the World Cup for the first time. Impromptu brass bands on the street corners, young people dancing in the baroque fountains, and little ol' me climbing up the Bastille monument and smooching some random guy on the top. Brooklyn, at least, is going to par-tay when Obama wins.
Obama il va marquer?
I would totally pay a metric shitload of money to see Obama headbutt W, or Cheney, or McCain, or Scalia or . . . .
Also, this is what the coming race war will look like.
I can't figure what my neighbors are going to do. I have the only, forlorn, Obama sign on my street, but there are only four McCain signs. One of my neighbors used my sign as an opening gambit to ask me who I was voting for (!), but I couldn't tell from his affect what he thought.
As a side note: there's no really good way to speculate about a race war without sounding like an insane bigot. Hence why I imagine most people aren't working themselves up wondering whether cities will riot.
Unless it's M/tch's 65 because that is truly brilliant.
Of course it's not about immediate riots, but incremental resentment and acting out. But it'll be however it is. Hopefully the xenophobes are in the extreme minority.
Now one of us has to giggle and snort, Sifu.
||
Hey so who can lay some Lakatos on me? The Walt-Someguy-baiting cognitive-theories-of-mathematics types are apparently building some models based on his theories.
|>
I must disclose that I know about the cat race war video via The Editors at The Poorman, PBUH. I couldn't find the original post or I'd link to it.
Sort of on topic, I was struck (again) while watching the Amy Poehler "Sarah Palin" rap from last week that it's almost impossible for white people to rap without yelling and looking angry (Cf. Natalie Portman's recent performance).
That said, I just saw an ad while half-watching SNL that, while it mined the same "white people doing black things is funny" vein, actually had the white guy rapping in a relatively calm, flowy, non-angry-seeming manner. I think the product being sold was Holiday Inn.
And then while I was typing this the "Ras Trent" white Rastafarian bit on SNL came on. It also fits squarely into the "white people doing black things is funny!" genre, but seemed funny out of the corner of my eye.
Doomed to failure, Sifu. It's the new Cyc.
Everybody should know about the cat race war. You performed a vital service, M/tch.
75: hey now, that's just uncalled for. I should have used this link, though.
As a side note: there's no really good way to speculate about a race war without sounding like an insane bigot.
"You know, I think, when the race war happens? I'll try and be neutral. I'll be like racial Switzerland.
Oh, here's that Holiday Inn video.
I think the product being sold was Holiday Inn.
Holy smokes, I actually saw this ad. I thought it was unbelievably dated -- would have been clever and fresh in the mid-90s, might still be in less BlueState Cosmopolitan areas, but...yeah, I was wrong, because the 60+ crowd in the theater really liked it. Puzzled the heck out of me.
(The movie was pretty good, though. Those of you who like Westerns ought to see Appaloosa. Just ignore Renee Zellweger.)
Still watching SNL, and oh my fucking god of little green apples do I hate Coldplay. MUST. KILL!!!1!!
81: But see the thing that struck me as different about it is that in the 90's the white guy would have been yelling and acting all crazy bustin' a move, yo, whereas in this case he just stands there and calmly delivers some pretty decent rhymes.
I'm watching the World Series with the sound turned off. Ugh, Fox announcers. Actually I'm mostly just listening to the radio.
Fun trivia: Carlos Ruiz's Wikipedia page was updated with tonight's HR just after he hit it. Gotta love Wikipedia.
JM, I'll be in my apartment with a bottle of champagne and a bottle of bourbon from whenever I finish doing whatever election protection stuff I end up assigned to until a winner is announced, but my plan is to wander the streets after that, maybe I'll try to get in touch with you.
84: Yeeeeeaaaa.... ::doubtful:: I dunno, it just seems dated. Maybe it's the clothes, not that I usually notice stuff like that.
(I'm not rewatching it. This is all memory.)
Lakatos' Proofs and Refutations is an incredibly interesting book, and an easy read (or at least skim). It's a Socratic dialogue about different proofs of Euler's formula, V - E + F = 2. Each proof has something wrong with it. What's missing from Lakotos' book is that this process was only typical of a brief window of mathematical history, and is by-and-large at an end.
Personally, when I think of a theorem, the first thing I do is try to come up with a counterexample, but my impression is that this is somewhat idiosyncratic. I'm unusually bad at noticing flaws in my own logic.
Dude, are you kidding? I would LOVE to have gone. (The family tickets were fiercely debated, and ultimately went to my aunt and cousins.)
You're not even going to invite JM over for some champagne, w/d?
I got my daughter all exciting about watching the World Series tonight, and then she asleep during the rain delay.
It's a Socratic dialogue about different proofs of Euler's formula, V - E + F = 2. Each proof has something wrong with it. What's missing from Lakotos' book is that this process was only typical of a brief window of mathematical history, and is by-and-large at an end.
A guy in my program recently formalized someone or other's proof as part of his diss.
My parents figured out that my mom was pregnant when she kept falling asleep during postseason games. No other reason for a diehard fan to keep fading like that.
Yeeeeeaaaa.... ::doubtful:: I dunno
That's the weirdest analogy I've every seen.
But yeah, it's not really a good commercial, and the concept is definitely dated, I just noticed that they didn't have the white guy act all "black" while he performed the typical "white guy doing black stuff" routine.
Huh. It's the world series. I knew it was coming up. Not sure who's playing.
You live closer to PA than FL, parsimon. You have to support the Phils.
96: Why, I'll bet you don't even own a TV.
It doesn't matter where you live. Approving of baseball in Florida (after April 1) shows a character defect.
Approving of Florida shows a character defect.
Approving of baseball in Florida (after April 1) shows a character defect.
I knew I liked you, CC.
You're not even going to invite JM over for some champagne, w/d?
I've previously insisted without much of a reason that I won't watch the election results with anyone, wanting to sit around nervously by my lonesome. Can't change my position now.
97: I suspected that the Philadelphia team was in the playoffs, or rather the series. I support them, of course. The other team is Florida -- so no way, no support.
I have a TV. I watched it for 3 hours last night. It was great: Bill Moyers Now, and then something with Hugh Jackman (Wolverine!) and John Travolta, which turned into shoot-em-up. That couch time is needed sometimes for back therapy.
103 -- Parsi, just to be clear, it's the Tampa Bay Rays f/k/a Devil Rays.
The Holiday Inn Express ad is also unique among the White People Parodying Rapping genre in that it has a slightly more sophisticated rhyme scheme than AABB.
Bo Burnham ("what the hell's a G-Spot?") manages to get past it. Also throws in a few triplets, which are rare in WPPR.
89: well, I think the Lakoff/Nunez axis would probably argue that you could have that back-and-forth happening internally, instead of as an honest-to-god socratic dialogue; the incremental reasoning steps could be the same even if the distribution across brains was different.
"what the hell's a G-Spot?"
The boyfriend of the girl who lives next door to me seems to know. It's rather loud over there right now.
I need to move somewhere with actual walls.
104: Charley, it's not clear to me what this means.
Parsi, I understand that you don't follow the sport; the following is not meant to be patronizing. There are two major league teams in Florida. One is the Tampa Bay Rays. They used to be the Devil Rays. They play in an indoor stadium in St. Petersburg, on a pretty ratty looking field. The other team is the Florida Marlins. They play in Miami.
parsimon everybody gets it, you don't understand what this "baseball" thing is. Really, bully for you.
110 may have been uncalled for.
"Uncalled for" is kind of a weird phrase.
I'll tell you what's uncalled-for, Werth getting thrown out even though I yelled at the television for him not to get picked off. Bah.
Hyphenation, of course! Witt, you're a genius.
109: Okay. That's not remotely patronizing.
110: Hey, I'm not trying to make any personal point -- it's not about me. I obviously don't follow the sport at all, nor does anyone else I know, and I occasionally tease those who do. I'll stop.
Parsi, the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth. It's pretty exciting. Switch it on, give it a try.
No, really -- switch it on now! WOW.
Still tied. Bases loaded. No outs.
Phiilies won. Witt has to go burn shit down. The rest of us can head for bed. Night.
Oh, fuck. Is this like football games, where 2 minutes on the clock = fifteen minutes of play?
(I know it is not. My dad had season tickets to Red Sox; I know the game a bit.)
YES!!! Go Ruiz! Go Phils! Go fireworks! Go October baseball!
Weirdest baseball game ever.
Yeah, did you see Moyer's sliding grab and throw to first? Umpire made the wrong call, obviously, but what a play.
HUZZAH
Jamie Moyer may sound Canadian, but he's not. Does living in seattle for a decade do that to you?
Congratulations to the Phillies! World series, no small thing ( I mean that).
Wait, Ned, you're not a Pirates fan? Or you're just being all PA-loyal and stuff?
No congrats yet...we've only won two games in a best-of-four, so there's still plenty of time for heartbreak. I expect it, but at least we've had some thrills along the way.
There are no Pirates fans. I meet people who say they used to be Pirates fans, but they are dormant now. Even people who grew up Pirates fans are no longer Pirates fans, so nobody who just moves here for college or work would become one.
I lived in eastern PA until age 18, so there you go.
My parents figured out that my mom was pregnant when she kept falling asleep during postseason games. No other reason for a diehard fan to keep fading like that.
A true fan would have been kicking her feet to keep her mother awake.
My parents figured out that my mom was pregnant when she kept falling asleep during postseason games. No other reason for a diehard fan to keep fading like that.
A true fan would have been kicking her feet to keep her mother awake.
Here I am!
Late in elapsed time, but timely in comment time.
But yeah, seriously, a Pirates fan. The team of my youth is the Mets, and I still root for them, but even though it has never mattered for the Pirates in the entire time I've been a fan, and has often mattered for the Mets, I can't help but hope for the Pirates to beat the Mets when they play.
There are only a few thousand of us at this point, and another ~10k semi-active fans. The rest are, as Ned says, dormant.
Also, way un-timely:
There was an odd NPR manperson-on-the-street type of segment a day or two ago with a number of people, black and white, in -- ? Don't remember. In which several people, both black and white, voiced this concern quite seriously, and at length.
I'm pretty sure what you're talking about was York, PA, and I couldn't listen, because the promo clip was a woman saying that Obama being elected would result in "chaos." Because, well, you know. Those people.
44: Bob McManus
Not enough creative destruction or civil unrest. The social relations of capital still remain untouched.
I've gone on record that the big one will come in thirteen years. I figure eight years of Dems doing the best they can in a losing cause, four of Rep, and then a little less than one more year of a stolen Republican presidency and kablooey.
The US is so high on the materialism scale that we have no idea how far we can fall. We think a ten percent drop is bad, but we are nowhere near miserable enough to revolt. Not even close.
When previously middle class kids start dying then we will be there. My question is this: When the time comes who is gonna be with me and who steps up to be my lieutenants? I put stock in loyalty and a long existing relationship. Anybody willing to sign on early?
I've gone on record that the big one will come in thirteen years.
By that time the Mayan apocalypse will have come and gone.
Yeah, for the record I claim the Mayan's were wrong. Also, I'm not predicting the apocalypse, I'm predicting a US political revolution.
Part of my prediction is based on the premise that the current casino capitalism will *not* be significantly reformed and regulated. I predict once the current crisis is over the drumbeat will start again for more deregulation, probably in some other area of finance.
Because global fortunes will diminish when cheap energy becomes constrained the pressure to 'make more money' will become even greater.
In short, I'm betting that greed trumps wisdom. That's based on history since WWII, but who knows, maybe I'm wrong about that.
I hope so.
for the record I claim the Mayan's were wrong.
The Mayans beg to differ.
for the record I claim the Mayan's were wrong.
The Mayans were amazing. I'm not knocking the Mayans. But foresight was not their strong suit.
Way late but I will also second the Lakatos recommendation on Proofs and Refutations. Very interesting stuff, and I think more so on general establishment of belief, not necessarily how Mathematics (big M) has progressed. ( And I swear that I suggested it to the cogsci types near the end of a recent thread where the conceptualization of mathematics had come up. But I can't find it now (or even the thread it is in) so maybe I never did actually post it, but trust me, it was very prescient.)
I'm not knocking the Mayans. But foresight was not their strong suit.
Oh sure. Put them down a thousand years after their civilization collapses. Real tough. I'd like to see you say that to their collective face.
Thank you, JRoth. It's very easy to play Monday morning quarterback.
Meanwhile your cowardly bloggers like Kevin Drum are acting like air travel can be sustained at its current levels for the indefinite future, and claiming that that is a reason why the SF-LA train should not be built.
your cowardly bloggers like Kevin Drum are acting like air travel can be sustained at its current levels for the indefinite future, and claiming that that is a reason why the SF-LA train should not be built.
For serious? Come the fuck on, KD.
144: he's been pretty silly about it. The financial considerations make sense, but he seems to be unaware that the rail line will be competing with cars as well.
Which, actually, for a man as attuned to peak oil as he is, is odd.
The SF-LA train shouldn't be built because those sumbitches need to walk.
They just arrested two people who planned to assassinate Obama, so becks' grandfather isn't just whistling dixie.
In white tophats and tuxedos, yet. Does anyone know if the tuxedos were supposed to be some sort of reference to something, or just that the braindead thugs thought it'd be cool?
