401, 54-44. 9:15 EST. 23 seats in the House, 10 in the Senate. Approximately one pm.
max
['The leaked exit polls will do it.']
Ron Paul will win Montana. For Obama, I mean.
269-269, Wednesday morning around 5am. The Dems will pick up 20 in the House, and 7 in the Senate.
My guess is we won't know the final tally until middle of the day tomorrow, while Colorado and Indiana finish counting all the mail-in and provisional ballots. 393-145, Democrats end up with 57 Senators (+Lieberman and Sanders for 59) and the Georgia seat goes to a runoff. 32 seat pick up in the house.
If we don't need Lieberman for a 60 seat majority, can we just throw him out? That would be a nice consolation prize
I'm wondering when they'll call states like VA and PA, given that there will still be people in line to vote when the polls close who may take hours to finish.
Definitely going to need Lieberman. Reid has already signalled that they are going to strip him of his committee chairmanship.
8: I find it hard to believe that a state the size of Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting. That's an awful lot of people to try to punch through in one day.
Shorter apo: "I will punch anyone that needs punching in PA."
396 EV, 59 senate seats (w/ Joementum and Bernie the SOCIALIST!), 267 house seats.
60 doesn't really matter as much as 50 does because it's 60 on many different votes so each time you have a chance to peel an R. The organizing resolution, on the other hand, is the definition of what it means to be D or R so that's a much more fixed number, and it only happens once.
I find it hard to believe that a state the size of Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting.
Previously explained. Also see 37.1 in that thread.
Electoral vote: 343-195
Popular: 52-46-1-1
House: Plus 30
Senate: Plus 8
1980 was a tragedy not just because of Reagan, but because some very fine Democrats got tossed out of Congress. With the exception of Ted Stevens, nobody unusually vile is going to lose this year - Coleman and Dole are pretty much run-of-the-mill lousy Republicans, and McConnell is going to win.
But it's still shaping up to be a pretty sweet election.
I predict that I will not get to sleep before 3 AM. Even if the basic shape of the results are clear by my normal 11 o'clock bedtime, I'm still going to be too jazzed and nervous to sleep.
Let's just get to the backlash already.
After telling AWB I didn't love her bet of 350+ E.V., my entry into a betting pool was 353. Fortunately, everyone else in the pool does not read polling aggregators, so I push at 333 and win at anything higher.
Does PA still have the voting machines with the curtains? I'm in Scantron Country here.
Does PA still have the voting machines with the curtains? I'm in Scantron Country here.
"She Left Me When The Scantron Came to Scranton."
Obama wins 52.4% of the popular vote and 349 EV's.
Dems win Senate seats in NM, CO, AK, VA, OR, NC, and NH. The GA Senate race goes to a runoff, with Chambliss ultimately prevailing. In MN, Franken loses in a heartbreaker after a recount.
Dems win 34 GOP House seats, but lose 3 incumbents, for a net gain of 31.
Prop 8 fails in California by a suprisingly large margin.
I'm in Scantron Country here.
I read this as Scranton County first and thought "Wait, I thought Scranton was in Lackawanna County."
Does PA still have the voting machines with the curtains?
Don't think so - my impression is that they've all been replaced with electronics. Certainly Allegheny County now just has the touch-screens. The lack of a curtain weirds me out.
I read this as Scranton County first and thought "Wait, I thought Scranton was in Lackawanna County."
Why on earth would you know this, apo?
"She Left Me When The Scantron Came to Scranton."
...with thirty thousand pounds... of bananas.
(If any unfogged commenter gets this allusion, please speak up, because it will make my day.)
Stop jinxing it, you optimists.
OMG I cannot stand the suspense. I should prepare for a migraine tomorrow morning.
Why on earth would you know this, apo?
I'm full of useless knowledge.
I find it hard to believe that a state the size of Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting. That's an awful lot of people to try to punch through in one day.
To go with Witt's linked explanation, we have a bazillion precincts - we've never had the kinds of lines you see in OH and FL. At my current polling place, I"m frequently the only voter at ~7 pm. May have something to do with population loss - same number of precincts as in 1950, ~1/2 the population.
Does PA still have the voting machines with the curtains?
I know I sound like a broken record, but it really, really is very localized around here. There is almost nothing that is true of "PA" as a state -- it's at the county level (we have I think 67) or even lower. So yes, there are some places that have curtains -- I used a booth with curtains this morning. Unfortunately, my county now has electronic machines. I really miss that big red lever. It felt like you were actually having a vote counted when you had to tug that thing back and forth.
You might want to turn the sound down to prevent head explosion, but has Chuck Grassley never stood on a stage with someone before? He's just awkward there.
Popular vote O+7. Electoral vote 379. 57+2 in the Senate with GA going into a runoff.
It felt like you were actually having a vote sexual encounterd when you had to tug that thing back and forth.
Nate Silver has a good post at fivethirtyeight about why you should ignore exit polls. Interesting fact:
in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election.
25- I recall that banana song (just the line you quoted,) although I don't remember there being a specific connection to Scranton or Scantron.
I'm going to bed early and setting my alarm for 5am, by which time you guys had better be able to tell me:
(1) Obama won by a landslide! Now Bush has 11 weeks to break everything he hasn't yet broken and pardon everyone in his administration, then resign in the last week and have President Cheney pardon him.
(2) The Republicans rigged the election. Again. Long live President McCain! (Because President Palin comes next.) Rest in peace, democracy in America. Carve a nice tombstone.
Whoever wins, I'm changing my handle to Tobyzeigler: I'm tired of having a nom no one can spell, and right now I'm channelling him like crazy. Also, I want to hire his dad.
In 2000, whatever network I was watching called Florida for Gore, and I told my wife it was over; that Gore had won.
In 2004, the exit polls showed a Kerry victory, and I told my wife it was over; that Kerry had won.
I keep telling her that it's over, and that Obama has won, but for some reason she remains skeptical.
38: but for some reason she remains skeptical.
It's clearly because she's a racist!
38: At some point I stopped being concerned that I'd have to start making plans to leave the country tomorrow and started worrying that the republicans won't get spanked badly enough to learn anything. Won't I be laughing if that was all based no bad polling?
I predict you will find his pronunciation of "indivisible" ADORABLE.
I'm thinking a little closer. I hear there are some shenanigans in Virginia, and plenty of challenges already.
My precincts are going perfectly smoothly.
erm. "based on bad polling." period, no "?"
What the heck, I'll stake out the ultra-optimistic 406 EV, 60 (59 + 1*) Senator position.
*Bye-bye, Joe.
Ahmadinejad is having internal problems that don't bode well for the election in 8 months.
I think it would be extremely good for Obama if both Ahmadinejad and Dear Leader (the other one) are gone within his first year in office, even if it has nothing to do with us.
Is there a viable left/populist opposition in Venezuela? He could hit the trifecta.
While I'm browsing the Times, can someone please explain to me why Tierney still has a job?
Ahmadinejad and Chavez are both boogey-men of the American Right. If they go, they will be replaced by somebody else with brown skin and political interests that diverge from the U.S. Republican Party line.
With Kim Jong Il, on the other hand, you gotta figure the world will be improved by his departure from it.
Ahmadinejad and Chavez are both boogey-men of the American Right.
What's surprising is how many people buy the bullshit the GOP has be shovelling on this. Particularly in Venezuela. That doesn't mean it's all sunshine and roses down there, but the US, and the US Right in particular, have approximately zero credibility when it comes to South America.
zero credibility when it comes to South America.
Yeah, if only the U.S. had the same credibility in South America that it does in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia ...
49: I disagree with the implied equivalence.
47.2 is a damned lie. Our Glorious Leader gave us KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY of DPRK, which brings us such hard hitting headlines as "DPRK's Stand on S. Korean Puppets' Anti-DPRK Confrontational Racket Clarified" and "Kim Jong Il Provides Field Guidance to Goat Farm and Plastic Tube Factory."
In other news, "[o]fficers and men of the three services danced to the tune of songs "glory to dear leader", "to uphold leadership of party with loyalty" and "let's uphold our supreme commander with arms", expressing boundless reverence for the respected supreme commander who brings the heyday of the Juche-based army building with his outstanding military idea, unparalleled courage, diversified stratagem and unremitting leadership. "
My official prediction in June was Obama 271 (Kerry-04 + OH + CO + IA - MI), but I'm going to revise that to 291 (McCain GOP voter suppression efforts take OH and FL, Obama retains PA and VA). It's very comforting to know that Obama can lose any three of OH FL PA VA and still win as long as there are no other surprises.
Senate, I'm predicting 58 seats not counting Lieberman, because fuck Lieberman. Actually my fond dream here is that it ends up 59 seats and Reid says "I'd rather publicly humiliate you than have 60 seats" and we all get to watch that smirk fade away over and over and over on YouTube.
44: What the heck, I'll stake out the ultra-optimistic 406 EV, 60 (59 + 1*) Senator position.
My ultra-optimistic postion is 426 EV, plus bonus house seats. (401 EV is based on GA, NC, VA, FL, IN, MO, WV, AR plus Obama states. Of course MT and ND could switch and WV can go hang, or AZ could flip and AR and WV can bugger off, etc. A wide win should surely bring in PA, VA, FL, OH and MO, so getting GA, WV, IN and AR or moral equivalents shouldn't be a big deal.) Also, I should note I modified my early September call of 52-46 to 54-44.
I don't expect a full count to be finished until early tomorrowish (actually some days as always), but I expect to see 270 no later than 11:15 EST, and you oughta know when OH, PA, VA, and GA come in, which should be no later than 8 EST.
max
['Things would need to be going a lot more wrong than they seem to be to do worse than that.']
or AZ could flip
God, that would be great.
54 is when unicorns start appearing, right?
53: my methodology in 44 was basically to take the realclearpolitics "make your own electoral map" toy and flip all the toss-up states (which included AZ) to Obama.
watch that smirk fade away
Neocons and smirking. What is that all about?
54 is when unicorns start appearing, right?
More like that's when the Secret Service puts McCain on suicide watch. Seriously, though, post-defeat McCain is going to be a pathetic creature.
You know that McCain is going to blame someone post-election, and will be publicly acting out, the way he publicly acted out in 2001. I can't figure out who he's going to blame, though. Obama? Palin? His shitty Rove-lite campaign staff that caused him to not only lose but destroy his national reputation?
as opposed to the last few weeks?
57: smirk = "i feel like i should be happy because i got my way, but for some strange reason i still feel empty inside, so i'll just try to make you feel worse than i do."
59: I hope someone catches it on video when he calls Palin a cunt.
60->58
actually, on that note, post-election does the secret service even cover the loser? If so, why?
My ultra-optimistic scenario is 364 (OH PA VA NC FL).
I'm sticking with the prediction I made at Unfogged 2.0: Obama with 538.
Wow, ben, you win at optimism.
I was going to say 538 to 0, but I think Oklahoma could be close. So, conservatively, it could be 531 to 7.
66: BAH!
OBAMA WITH 600 FTW
68: Uhh right! Exactly. One of those.
You can't chop up the voters that way Walt, you might not be able to put them back together again
Wow, ben, you win at optimism.
Or he's secretly masterminded huge voter suppression in UT, ID and WY.
a good sign for obama? my son's kindergarten class held an election today for favorite cookie. oreos won in a landslide.
What's surprising is how many people buy the bullshit the GOP has be shovelling on this. Particularly in Venezuela. That doesn't mean it's all sunshine and roses down there, but
My take on Chavez is that his basic policies are fine, but he really does want dictatorial powers, and the longer he's in office, the better the odds that he gets them. Note that I specified a left-of-center replacement - I wouldn't want to see him replaced by the fuckers who tried to take him down.
Since Ahmadinejad is a figurehead, there's no harm in being pleased at his replacement during Obama's administration. While you're right that the Right will concoct new boogeymen in their places, that takes time, and in the meantime Obama will succeed where Bush failed, by Bush's own terms. Cure Nelson from the Simpsons.
Final fivethrirtyeight.com simulation: 98.9% chance of Obama win.
Ahmadinejad may be a figurehead, but he's not a very helpful figurehead. I think everybody knows what the outlines of the Grand Bargain are going to be; it's just a question of how much face is going to be sacrificed in getting to it. Going to the table with a different, less disingenuous Iranian president would be a lot easier.
a good sign for obama? my son's kindergarten class held an election today for favorite cookie. oreos won in a landslide.
Which cookie is Mccain? Pecan sandies?
I was going to say 538 to 0, but I think Oklahoma could be close. So, conservatively, it could be 531 to 7.
No way Obama wins the western Nebraska congressional district. I say 537 to 1.
I don't think the Secret Service is tasked with preventing politician suicides. What is this, the Vatican?
Which cookie is Mccain? Pecan sandies?
Old, stale shortbread. With chocolatecarob chips (mavericky, innit?)
Which cookie is Mccain?
Fig Newtons.
15, do you think that Inhofe is insufficiently vile?
Inhofe isn't going to lose, is he? Much as I would love to see that happen, I think the polls are pretty clear.
I had a long dream last night about refreshing electoral vote maps over and over again. I'm pretty sure it was prophetically sent to me by my future self, so predicting things would be unfair to non-psychics, but here's a hint: Montana was blue!
Cecily is really from Montana, so she must be right!
84: Inhofe measures up admirably for vileness, but alas I fear essear is correct that he fails the other necessary condition for making me feel avenged for 1980.
Obama 345 +- 30, McCain 193 -+ 30. Senate, 59-41. Don't know about the House margin.
The basis for my prediction is a guess that the aggregated state polls over the last week will not have enormous systematic errors. All the aggregation sites converged on something very close to my number over the past couple of days.
I'll be happy with 385/200 EV, +20 in the House, 57 Dems in the Senate (including Lieberman and Sanders). That's conservative, and anything less would be very disappointing.
I do have a list of especially obnoxious Republicans I want out of there.
I do have a list of especially obnoxious Republicans I want out of there.
Without knowing, I would guess that the more obnoxious they are to you, the safer the seat.
So will we know early-voting results as part of the regular reporting? I'm a little worried that in, say, NC, where so many already voted, Election Day-only results might scare us by going Republican.
Coleman is obnoxious without being especially conservative, and it's touch and go.
My prediction: by 8:30 Jonah Goldberg will be offering to trade a lovely cup of hot, fresh coffee for electoral votes.
Coleman is a dirty hippie. Or was, before he found Jesus. (Actually he probably was a hippie just for the sex and drugs. The socialism and environmentalism is just baggage.)
96 sounds suspiciously like the voice of experience.
Without knowing, I would guess that the more obnoxious they are to you, the safer the seat.
probably holds. You can only get away with being really obnoxious in a safe seat.
91, 99 - the counterexample being Michelle Bachman, I guess.
I predict that everything that Rob Farley says here about the liberal "blogsophere" will come to pass:
http://lefarkins.blogspot.com/2008/11/joy-and-depression.html
Also, I'm feeling strangely sad about the end of McCain Blogette. I liked that kid, that site, and the bizarro name!
86 -- Spirits are pretty good. Even in Havre (Hill County won't be blue, but it won't be deep red either). Just think where we'd be if somehow Dem primary voters hadn't chosen none-of-the-above.
101 is right, and it's a good thing. I myself look forward to the day when I give up on reading Jim Henley's site because I can't find anything to agree with him on any more.
for Congress.
Actually that's not fair to None-of-the-Above. They nominated Hey-I-think-I-like-the-Republican.
90. Will you people stop saying "N Democrats in the senate (including Lieberman)?" He's not a member of the Democratic party. He's not an "independent Democrat". He ran against the Democrat.
"N Democrats in the senate (including Lieberman)?"
But since he caucuses with the Dems, how else would you denote it?
What's so difficult about "N Democrats + one asshole who caucuses with them (+one socialist)"?
101 is heartbreaking, but not unexpected. Those of us who care more about policy than symbolism and sentiment, who wanted an end of war and a start toward UHC despite Obama if necessary, understood that people like Farley would become flacks, shills, hacks and cheerleaders when they got their Leader into the WH.
And he even admits it. I think he's proud of it.
108 -- Wait, you want to work towards ending the war in Iraq and promoting universal health care? I thought you just wanted to freak out about young people and burn shit down.
110 - the one is the means toward the other.
The only question is which is the means and which the end. I could see it going either way.
I myself look forward to the day when I give up on reading Jim Henley's site because I can't find anything to agree with him on any more
This is weird. I'm the exact opposite.
I'm the exact opposite.
But you're in special circumstances, Brock. Speaking of which, someone on LGF relayed this comment from a PUMA site:
I am driving hubby batty this morning, I am dancing around the house cheerleading- PUMA! PUMA! PUMAs ROAR! PUMAs POUNCE! PUMA! PUMA!You could have it worse.
But since he caucuses with the Dems, how else would you denote it?
With my middle finger?
115: If that doesn't work, try that calabat. Repeatedly.
What we're seeing in Maddow and Obama, I think, are public figures who combine high seriousness and all-purpose unflappability with flashes of scary-smartness and moments of dismissive snark. This M-O m.o. is qualitatively different from the 80-to-100 percent snark content of the Stewart/ Colbert demeanor, and vastly more effective than John Kerry trying to tell a "joke" about being born in the West Wing. And it seems, for now, to be exactly what the public sphere needs.
No, Berube the "public sphere" needs health care and energy policy and redistribution and peace and demilitarization.
The New Improved Kool Kids like you are the only ones that will be completely satisfied with a waycool snarky President.
Goddamn, the moral vacuousness of the blogosphere role models is astonishing.
114 - I'm pretty much incapable of reading a reference to "PUMAs" without substituting "cougars".
DAMMIT BOB, MOCKING CHENEY IS A PUBLIC GOOD.
108 - Jesus Christ, Bob, I'd hate to think about the weight of moral approbation you'd drop on Rob Farley if he were disagreeing with you.
Here's Dennis Perrin I wish I could write like that.
40 fucking years, and my last Democratic President is JFK- The-Sequel, Best & Brightest Pt II. Right-of-Center asshole worshiped by the hipsters for his witty press conferences.
Parrrtttyyyyy!!!! I'll leave ya to it.
Have fun at the barricades, bob.
McCain is an orange circus peanut.
124 is really all the election commentary you'll ever need.
