Hey, Movable Type, stop eating my comments.
But cute girls, surely.
Only the ones I went with.
Well, and a few others.
Ben posted this at 10:30 am local time - how bad could the club have been?
DNA?
That would be quite a haul from my current location.
Daytime goth clubs? What will they think of next?
Someone is grumpy this morning because he didn't get laid last night. Ben, the good news is that there may be a pickup artist "lair" in your area which offers "boot camps" teaching the seduction skills you need. You won't get anywhere by being a nice guy, that's for sure!
6 gets it right. What did you expect?
What did you expect?
I dunno, goth music, I guess.
Whenever I see someone write "actually, I rather like *", it gladdens my heart.
But cute girls, surely.
That hasn't really been my experience the times I've gone to goth clubs. Indie pop seems to have the highest percentage of good-looking fans out of the genres I follow, though I'll admit this is likely up to personal taste.
Overpriced drinks and bad dancing, sadly, are par for the course for virtually any social event.
15: You must've had bad luck. The high proportion of uber-hot women in the goth population is the main reason dudes of any stripe put up with going to goth clubs in the first place. (What exactly the women are getting out of said clubs I have no idea; there are proportionally, it's always seemed to me, far fewer attractive goth men.)
You say "bad 'industrial' music" as if that isn't redundant. What are some good industrial groups?
16: Well, admittedly I've never gone to the major goth clubs like Neo or Exit here in town, those may be different. I've just been to a few of the bigger goth nights with an ex-turned-friend who became a full-fledged gothic lolita after we'd dated.
Or maybe Chicago's just got a crappy goth scene. Wouldn't surprise me. It's always too cold or too hot for trenchcoats, and the salted winter sidewalks are an absolute bitch on boot leather and shiny metal buckles.
My primary shield against the cold for three and a half years was a bigass black leather trenchcoat, until in my last year and a half I started using a less ostentatious ... trenchcoat. Your claim, it is strange to me.
I miss the Victorian and Romantic gothim who used to be so abundant in my youth. I loved the girls in their fancy dress and the skinny boys in velvet waistcoats. I never see them anymore; I only ever see industrial/rocker variety goths. Boo.
Now you kids get the hell off my lawn.
What are some good industrial groups?
Einstürzende Neubauten, of course. NWW when the mood strikes them.
I recall liking some Wumpscut, too, in a hokey kind of way, time back way back.
19, 20: I'd far prefer something more insulated in the 20-degrees-or-less weather of the Chicago winter. A trenchcoat could work since it would provide an excellent windbreak, but it would require decidely un-goth-like fluffy sweaters for insulation purposes. Even the businessmen around here who are already wearing a full suit will switch to a greatcoat or overcoat for the winter months.
Then again, the hipster fashion strain that demands chucks, skinny jeans, flannel or t-shirt, and hoodie regardless of weather still holds strong around here. So I'm probably overestimating the effects of practicality on subcultures.
The high proportion of uber-hot women in the goth population is the main reason dudes of any stripe put up with going to goth clubs in the first place.
s/b 'put up with dressing in a corset'. Hot goth girls: tasty tasty tasty.
What are some good industrial groups?
If you need to ask, you're never gonna know.
max
['Why didn't you post the picture of the cutest goth girl in the world, young Ben? We coulda had a full ogged nostalgia attack while we were at it.']
Oingo Boingo's "Wild Sex (in the Working Class)" is decent song about industry, as are the sequence of "Industry", "Dig Me", and "No Warning" from Three of a Perfect Pair. (I uploaded those last three, in the past. Isn't "Industry" great? Yes it is!)
einsturzende are kraut-zeuhl
the original industrial culture handbook hymns: Survival Research Laboratories (battling robots, not music), Throbbing Gristle, Cabaret Voltaire, SPK, NON, Monte Cazazza, Johanna Went, Sordide Sentimental (a belgian record label), R&N (what was this?), and Z'EV
cabaret voltaire, SPK and (maybe) z'ev are the most likely to persuade unbelievers -- z'ev only if you see a show i suspect (he's a virtuoso percussion dervish)
the gristle are rawther hit-and-miss all told; cazazza and went i never heard, non are faintly amusing in a horrible-noise-stupid-provacation type way
Three 2008 Nobel laureates from the United States lined up with President George W. Bush on Monday for an Oval Office photograph to mark their achievements.Hey, I don't know how stable that link is - if anyone knows a better place for stable AP links, please provide.[...]
The third laureate at the White House was Paul Krugman of New York, who won the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on international trade patterns. Krugman, a frequent critic of the Bush administration who opposed the recent $700 billion financial bailout, is a Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist.
Z'ev? Huh.
Time back way back I had several Throbbing Gristle and Cabaret Voltaire mp3s and mostly didn't know what to make of them, I think.
wiki: "z'ev requests that people note either "Z'EV" or "z'ev" are acceptable typographies for his "brand name" (context depending), but that "Z'ev" most emphatically is not."
According to rfts, "wiki" is most emphatically not acceptable when referring to wikipedia.
The only goths I ever see any more are mall goths...and although I have a tremendous soft-spot for them (so many end up working as lab techs, which is just darling) I admit to preferring the fussier kind.
Goth always seems rather suburban to me, though. I've met very few city-bred goths. I suppose the romance of industry and urbanism declines a bit when you actually live down the street from, say, Bituminous Roadways Incorporated.
The thing is, I only like affected subcultures where everyone is ugly and weird and bad-tempered--that's how goths were, back in the day. Now it's all adorability and showing off and heteronormativity so it might as well really be anything else. That's really the subculture arc--it starts out being weird kids with chips on their shoulders and ends up being the cleverer and more easily bored of the popular kids. (That's how riot grrrl went, back in my young day.)
Sigh. I am so too old to care about this stuff.
Anyway, mall goths have those silly wide pants and they're just hilarious.
South Park had a pretty good "Goths v. Vampires" episode last week:
http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/137227/detail/
How did the whole Goth thing not blow over, like, ten years ago?
Because people enjoy the company of other people who share their interests and behaviors.
Ben, are you wearing pvc pants?
Actually, I rather like goth dancing.
The I-am-brushing-away-the-cobwebs-in-front-of-me kind or the I-am-hugging-myself-tightly-and-listening-to-music-only-I-can-hear kind?
The Rosemary Locale is a music blog that specializes in all kinds of gothy sub-genres. Personally, I'm delighted by the sub-genre called "depressive."
My Goth/BDSM scenester friend assures me that the scene is not the place to find the plain old hottest of the hot. The accoutrements are sexy in and of themselves, but it's a welcoming place for the fat and bald and don't-fit-in, and not the place to go if you're looking for pretty boys and girls with spidery makeup.
The I-am-brushing-away-the-cobwebs-in-front-of-me kind of goth dancing has an entire vocabulary of movement, none of which has ANYTHING to do with the music being played. It's actually kind of amazing, when you consider how bass-thumpy industrial music tends to be. Acknowledging the rhythm in any way was considered uncouth; I can't help suspecting racism plays a role here.
The only move I remember from my (very brief) goth phase was what was called "pick up the rose," which sort of looks like the kind of twee genuflection a herniated Elizabethean courtier might perform. I think there was a "twirl the rose over your head" coda involved.
I've long aged out of having a "scene" but I did once upon a time spend every Monday night at Goth Night at a local gay bar with a bunch of friends and still, when one opens the door to our shared closet, the light bends a bit towards my side as opposed to Rah's earth tones. I used to love going to goth night to make fun of people. It's a good ol' time for the catty sort, such as myself.
I can't help suspecting racism plays a role here.
Having observed plenty of that dance myself, that wasn't my impression. My data is only anecdata, of course, but the minorities I knew who were fairly goth danced the same dance and didn't seem to have any particular self-hate going on. These were rural and small-city goths, though, who were probably well behind the curve of whatever original intent came up with Screwing In A Lightbulb and Picking Up Loose Change as standard goth dances.
Yeah, that might've been a bit too strong.
goths, goths, hmmmm. It is hard for me to understand how anyone might talk of a "goth scene" or "goth clubs", "goth chicks" or whatever. I live in Camden Town, capital of the Goth world, so these phrases are like "let's go to a beer pub" or "she was dressed in clothes" as far as I'm concerned. We have goths working in the post office.
42: I definitely wouldn't agree with racism as the default explanation but neither would I say there's zero potential for racism. The goths I know/knew find skinheads abhorrent but there's a definite awareness that they like some of the same music. Generally, of course, my goth crowd acquaintances skewed to the left by virtue of it happening at a gay bar.
OT, because it's infuriating and because there's nowhere else to put it:
Before Hillary Clinton has been formally offered the job as Secretary of State, a purge of Barack Obama's top foreign policy team has begun.
The advisers who helped trash the former First Lady's foreign policy credentials on the campaign trail are being brutally shunted aside, as the price of her accepting the job of being the public face of America to the world. In negotiations with Mr Obama this week before agreeing to take the job, she demanded and received assurances that she alone should appoint staff to the State Department. She also got assurances that she will have direct access to the President and will not have to go through his foreign policy advisers on the National Security Council, which is where many of her critics in the Obama team are expected to end up.
That is infuriating. Too bad none of the bloggers here follows politics anymore.
46: I think the Josh Marshall rule of not taking seriously any reporting in British papers about American politics should be followed here. I mean, The advisers who helped trash the former First Lady's foreign policy credentials on the campaign trail ? Come one.
41:
Please don't neglect the important role that 'Kick the coked-out scenesters' and 'Oh God! The Spiders!' had in late-90s goth dancing in our small corner.
I support HRC's plan to kick out the coked-out scenesters from the State Department.
48 gets it right, and the hysteria in 46 is already undermined by the apparent selections of Jim Steinberg for Deputy SecState and Jim Jones for NSA.
46 is already undermined by the apparent selections of Jim Steinberg for Deputy SecState and Jim Jones for NSA
Both Steinberg and Jones are hawkish picks with not much in the way of policy disagreement between them and Clinton. How do they undermine the notion that the foreign policy team is going to be weighted-down with Clinton types?
While we are OT on politics stuff, I am really wondering if we will ever get to know why Clarence Thomas agreed to put a nutjob lawsuit about the eligibility of Obama (as well as McCain and the Socialist Worker Party candidate) onto the Supreme Court docket for conference.
Anyway, after Donofrio's case was rejected at the state level, he presented it to Supreme Court Justice David Souter who rejected it. Donofrio then presented it to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who put it on the court docket for a conference on December 5.
That is odd. Maybe from now on we'll just expedite the whole choosing a president thing by bypassing the election and submitting the question to the Supreme Court.
While having to deal with political enemies fatally undermined Colin Power,....
"Colin Power" was less successful than "Joementum". The movie, the TV series, the concept album, and the line of action figures have all been shelved.
53: Actually, the more I think about this the more pissed off I am getting. The effing thing will get dismissed, but it will give (has already given) renewed "legitimacy" to the eligibility narrative and brings yet more overtones of politicization (no matter how farcical, which is its own problem) to an institution already suffering from it.
Impeach.
Wait, what? How does that even work? So if I want to sue space aliens for beaming commands into my brain through my fillings, and only eight out of nine Supremes think I'm completely insane, all I have to do is keep presenting it to different justices till I hit the one who's willing to entertain my delusion?
55: But the licensed nutritional supplements seem to be doing okay.
My few friends in HS were generally on the gothic end of the spectrum, although, being a ciy HS, there were only a couple of really gothy ones, so they had to amalgamate with the LARPers, theater geeks, lefty punx and queers. As Frowner points out, there doesn't seem to be much of a goth scene around here right now. Even my two favorite goths, the tiny girl and the huge gangly guy (which could describe about 55% of all goths, I'm sure) who worked at the used bookstore are nowhere to be found. Alas, poor gothicks.
||
So an acquaintance of mine who's really rather an odd duck (and kinda gothic when you come right down to it) has a new girlfriend. And she seems almost scarily normal. Except! Both of them are grad students in a modern European language. And when she mentions anything in that language, it's the whole white-newscaster-overpronouncing-Spanish-names deal. Is there any term of art for that phenomenon? And does it indicate anything else about the person? And moreover, do people in other countries who are really into the study of English ever do it? read, any thoughts?
Because if that's her only eccentricity, I can scarcely credit that they're going out, much less living together. But if the over-pronounciation is indicative of a constellation of other weirdness, then it kinda makes sense.
||>
(as well as McCain and the Socialist Worker Party candidate)
The fact that Thomas put it on for conference after the election and he included two other candidates besides Obama suggests to me that he wants the Supremes to offer an opinion on what constitutes 'natural-born'. Assuming they find that the meaning of natural-born jibes with statute [two parents are citizens or one parent is a citizen and the child was born in the US, or simply the child was born in the US], the effect would be to quash any disputes in this area in the future...
max
['Then again, maybe he wants to get gothy with it.']
McCain and Obama shared a foreign policy team.
For those keeping score at home:
DSquared : Gothia :: Emerson : Wobegon.
Noted without comment:
On Wall Street, Bernanke's reviews have improved, especially at firms that have received assistance from the Fed.
Obama's CIA transition team is being led by ex-Bush officials tied to torture and cooked Iraq intelligence . It's very early yet, and I haven't at all given up hope, but so far he's looking like the Obama who cozied up to the bipartisan consensus around hte national security state as soon as he left Hyde Park and got real power. Glenn Greenwald has a long post on these and related issues, with a guest appearance from Digby, who says:
Liberals took cultural signifiers as a sign of solidarity and didn't ask for anything.
neatly summarized. Not that cultural signifiers are meaningless, but he was never your cool black friend, he's a pol who has to be lobbied.
But he is a smart guy and we really don't know yet how it's all going to play out.
I'm pretty sure this is OT..
||
It was early in the 1986-87 season, when the Boston Celtics got their first look at Dennis Rodman, the Pistons' precocious rookie. When Rodman came into the game midway through the opening quarter, his assignment was to guard Larry Bird. As per his personal game plan, Bird immediately took Rodman into the low-post to test the rookie's mettle.
However, before he could receive an entry pass, Bird suddenly yelped and jumped forward. When questioned by his teammates during a subsequent timeout, Bird blamed his unexpected behavior on Rodman's defense.
Instead of applying an elbow to Bird's back, or displacing Bird by putting pressure on the back of Larry Legend's lagging knee, Rodman had simply poked a finger up Bird's butt!
Thereby giving new meaning to down-and-dirty defense. ||>
receive an entry pass
...
poked a finger up Bird's butt!
I bet the dancing was bad only because you didn't get up and show 'em how, Ben.
Barack says no free money to the auto industry. Just to finance. OK.
Please don't neglect the important role that 'Kick the coked-out scenesters' and 'Oh God! The Spiders!' had in late-90s goth dancing in our small corner.
We need to go back now, except that I'd have to start smoking again.
Barack says no free money to the auto industry.
Trillions for finance, not one cent for industry! Because.... um, the creative class will be working in the fields and won't need things like dirty machines! Yeah!
That's ok, apparently the Cutest Goth Girl in the World isn't good enough for the scene, man.
max
['It's banks and chicks with skin like the orangish corinthian leather vinyl* in my granddad's '82 Imperial all the way down.']
* as seen on that whateverthatis with Paris Hilton on TV
Rachel Maddow makes lewd dog-whistle jokes on her show. Also, is she banging Dahlia Lithwick?
Also, she's really smart, and aggressive in apleasant way.
cyber goth they say
i liked the guy with a kitty face best and some of them look just regular people
Maddow is the goddess of policy wonks.
I have at least one Goth niece, probably two or three. They thin I look weird.
77: well, sure, it makes sense that they're thin. And that you're weird.
First time I did ecstasy was at a goth club. While wearing a black trenchoat! Boy was that a weird fit.
I tried to convince them that having all your teeth pulled is mega-piercing, but they didn't buy it.
Oh man, I bought some cloves earlier, and I couldn't figure out what the fuck inspired me to do that: it was totally this thread!
Unfogged: working on so many levels.
Unfogged is dying. Slowly, but it is. Sigh.
Like you're helping, Mr. Mom-said-I-need-to-scythe-somebody-while-I-still-have-my-looks.
79: Weird, but in the opposite direction. The first time I did ecstasy I was nekkid in a hot tub.
85: I imagine it is like hammer-ing someone, but with a scythe.
Sifu just can't stand the image of Larry Bird being sodomized by a black person. He's going to be haunted by that.
Beefo MeatyYou close 'em, you can't open 'em again! You can't change the world with one healthy fuel cell!
PGD: Tweety, Unfogged is *dying*. From my keyboard here, this is the last option.
There should be a gay porn niche for lookalikes of famous athletes. I would totally pay to watch fake Rodman slip one in to fake Larry Bird, and I'm straight.
karaoke, kara means empty, oke is orchestra
The first time I did ecstacy, it was the hands, or rather finger, of Dennis Rodman.
I know I shouldn't respond but I'd seriously do kraftwerk karaoke in a minute.
Also, the Dennis Rodman move in question has a name.
82 -- When I started commenting here Unfogged was busy being born.
Temptations page flies out the door. You follow, find yourself at war.
But even the President of the United States must sometimes have to stand naked. In a hot tub. On ecstasy.
101: ecstasy was available over the counter in Texas until 1986; I imagine it happened quite a bit.
No sweeping exits or offstage lines.
The machine just came around to a Larry Keel version.
102: I'm an awful person for wishing for a post-presidential bender come 20 January. But I'm a person nonetheless.
You know what are really awesome? Central limit theorems. I did a bunch of fun little calculations with all manner of ridiculous distributions with that sucky beast, MATLAB, last night while waiting for my infant to fall asleep.
It's SO COOL.
105: that is absolutely correct. I will be learning those in the one class next week!
You know what else is pretty great? Gaussian distributions. I don't care if the data doesn't fit! I want my commutative properties!
106: excellent. By the way, if you ever get a Peruvian and a Chilean in the room, ask them both who invented Pisco. Fun will ensue, I assure you.
Isn't it just the one central limit theorem, though?
107: I mean, I learned about it in my math methods class, but I didn't really get it until I tried it with a bunch of wonky-ass distributions.
110: yeah it's more than a little bit magic. The central limit theorem is Nate Silver's invisible 12" cock.
I had a Peruvian on my tour today. At least I assume he was Peruvian; he had an accent and kept telling me I should go to Peru.
107: I mean, I learned about it in my math methods class, but I didn't really get it until I tried it with a bunch of wonky-ass distributions.
Oops--I meant to say that apparently other convergences are possible--just of no consequence to us mortals.
112: you can never tell, though. He might be from space.
Some of his questions were a little odd, it's true.
Hey, we need some more math on the possibilities of 2.9 million coin flips. The Franken-Coleman spread started out at 700, descended to ?140? or so, and now is at about 180. There's reason to believe that the final spread will be in double figures. So what are the chances on that?
116: "Who wants to sex Mutombo?" is standard protocol for a meet-up start-up question. Man, you're really slipping in your sorta-hiatus.
My apologies to the Peruvian lurker (or regular!) on teo's behalf.
Oh wait, I did it wrong. Give me a minute!
You might want to get otto to check, though.
You might want to get otto to check get blotto in the grotto, though.
I...I couldn't help myself, Sifu. I tried.
Only 2.4 million of the votes were for Coleman or Franken. The number of votes for Dean Barkley's third-party candidacy looks like it was about 200,000% of the final margin of victory. Puts Nader to shame!
129: ooh, how many votes for barkley? I can put that in the model.
My imaginary internet friends are failing me. Cosma knows this kind of thing.
I stand by 4.73%.
Gaussian distributions are weird like that.
I can give you my matlab code if you want to check, emerson.
128, 130: I just went and reread that thread. Good times.
Oh whoops, I'm retarded. Thanks to Po-Mo, I can now say that it's a 9.3% chance.
Good! That's very good. Things are good here, too.
Any other news?
We could pretend to be lonely presidents who need dates, again.
Zombie Grant doesn't really check in that much anymore, does he?
I was actually pretty decent for the Suns last year.
I paid some poor schmo's tuition. He's probably going to study literature or something, though.
Who's that in my tomb?
Oh, like I'm some kind of punchline.
WHAT WE NEED HERE IS GOGGLE SCIENCE!
Actually, my father deserves a lot of the credit.
You can guess what I'm made out of.
I'll be worth a lot someday. You'll see.
YOU KNOW WHAT? SOMETIMES I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHY THE FUCK I'M HERE, RIGHT, POKEY? FUCK. POKEY. FUCK. RIGHT, POKEY?
Zombie Livingston, I presume?
I'm tired of scavenging for brains.
In some ways, it's impossible to really understand the brains that you're eating unless you're out there, with the brains in your face, cracking skulls as you need to, teaching your little boy that these -- these -- are the brains we eat in America.
For a little while, I was falling in love.
Oh, me? I'm just guarding this hen-crypt.
Hen-cryption h'is h'no h'laffin' h'matter.
Hurk.
Ironically, I am more human than a human.
I am the master of all Zombies.
176: my initial problem was considering only the values 50 on either side of 2.9M/2; in fact you should be considering the values 99 on either side of 2.9M/2. My matlab code:
sum(binopdf([2900000/2-99:1:2900000/2+99],2900000,0.5))
Try it!
176: I was out doing my 15 miler during the coin flip discussion (2 hr 15 min or so). Do your long runs on the weekend, kids!
Anyway, I get a ~5.1% chance of a 2.4 million coin flip (i.e., leaving out the Barkley votes; I suppose we could use a multinomial distribution with 3-sided biased coins, but what's the point?) experiment yielding at most a 99 vote margin:
>> Fvs = 1211375;
>> Cvs = 1211590;
>> N = Cvs+Fvs;
>> binocdf(N/2+49.5,N,.5)-binocdf(N/2-49.5,N,.5)
ans =
0.0507
Brains...I need brains to harness the power of the atom for the Reich...
But otto I think you're only accounting for half of the space.
181: But if we're doing, e.g., N = 10 coin flips, 3 H => 7 T. That's a 4 vote margin. So we'd want to integrate from N/2-2 : N/2+2. I'm no Cosma, but I think you had it right the first time. Po-Mo disagrees?
He does! Because the 4 vote magin is key, so you also want N/2 : N/2+4 and etc.
If you included N/2+4 (assuming, again that we care about 4 vote margins in this case), you'd be including the 9 H 1 T case, which would be an 8 vote margin. Reductio ad absurdum?
Ah, right. Didn't go far enough. To 100, right!
But it's not 10 votes, it's 2.9M votes.
The coin has to land on its side 14% of the time to account for the Barkley votes!
All I can do at this point is redump my matlab code.
I'm always embarrassed to find functions I've written already in the libraries. So dumb.
183,186: Yes, but it's a toy example that can help us think through things. If I'm understanding your183 correctly, you're proposing a series of N Bernoulli trials yielding N/2 votes for one guy and N/2+4 votes for the other guy. But that would be N/2 + N/2 + 4 = N + 4 votes. So right there you're proposing that N trials would yield N+4 results, which is crazy talk.
But again, I'm just a dilettante.
Okays so we have a total of 2.9M votes, right?
Given that those votes are divided two ways, what we want is the chance that one of those votes will total between 2.9M/2+99 (which is to say, 99 votes ahead of the opponent), and 292M/2-99 (which is to say, 99 votes behind the opponent). So the total number of possible vote totals we're dealing with = 199. So, we want the sum (over the 199 values) of the probability that the total votes for Y = [2.9M/2 - 99:2.9M//2 + 99]. Right?
2.9M/2+99 (which is to say, 99 votes ahead of the opponent)
This is where I disagree. If one candidate gets 2.9M/2+99, then the other candidate automatically gets 2.9M/2-99, which is a margin of 2*99 = 198. Because votes for one imply votes for the other, the margin grows as double the offset of the leading candidate from the mean.
otto is right. like our earlier selves. the max margin in your case is (2.9M/2+99)-(2.9M/2-99) = 198, which is not in double digits.
If you had a biased coin, only off to one part in a thousand, you'd expect the election to be w/in double digits
It's a definitional thing: Because each experiment can have only two outcomes, k successes => n-k failures. If k = n/2+f, for some offset from mean f, then n - k = n - (n/2 + f) = n/2 - f. Then the margin, which is k - (n-k), is equal to 2*f. So if we want a margin of 99, we need f = 49.5.
||
Some say it is wrong to make fun of the Chukchi, but one has to admit that they have some of the dumbest folk tales of all time.
|>
197: That is not dumb, but rather is awesome.
Oh, the people were quick to die.
I go to sleep and everything turns into zombies and statistics! It seems fitting, somehow.
It is also, sadly, a fact that Dsquared has admitted to liking Therapy? Given the correlates of Therapy?, red hair, and Camden Town, my model predicts a notional G-value for Dsquared of +0.6, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval.
I was told there wouldn't be any math or statistics on this blog that couldn't be done with an online calculator.
To that end, I end up with the same result as Otto using this online binomial probability calculator. The probability of the exact even result is .0515% and over the range of outcomes in question it is essentially flat* (.0514% with a 98-vote margin), so ~98*.0515 or ~5%.
*You get to a single outcome that is half as likely as the exact even one just short of a 2000- vote outcome (assuming exactly .5 probability).
197: At first I thought it said: and, lol! iron-footed reindeer came at his call.
I think from now on I will mentally replace all lo!s with lol!s. It makes everything seem so much friendlier.
203: Works for me.
LOL, how a Rose e'er blooming from tender stem hath sprung!
The cattle are LOLLing, the baby awakes
But little Lord Jesus no ROFLMAO makes
LOL, unto us a child is born! (Marching hymn of the War against Christmas)
I'm going to tell people 5%, and if they laugh at me I'm going to come looking for Otto and Sifu.
Not that cultural signifiers are meaningless, but he was never your cool black friend, he's a pol who has to be lobbied.
This is right. I wish liberals would start lobbying him, then.
210: Is Obama the reverse Putney Swope?
that folktale is not a genuine folktale, but a product of imagination of the maritime man
who tells fairy tales about defecation and copulation, all words in the fairytales are so perfectly fitted coz it was told so many times from generation to generation so that you can't drop a word without loosing some meaning and totally small kid friendly and resemble like some river stone, very smooth and round
instead i recalled a chukcha joke, pacifist
so a chukcha's standing on the guard and asking coming soldiers the parole - stand still! who are you? parole? - airplane, -airplane, -airplane
-tank - no, it's airplane, come on in
Read: "parole" should be "password"
OK, essear, I'll come looking for you too. If my imaginary-friend statistics software fails me, my wrath will be terrifying to behold.
"parole" should be "password"
a watchword, webster says, i looked it up now too
but sure thanks
The suitor said to him, "Indeed, you are a woman. For that very reason I have come to you." He said, "Now, here! See my spear!" He looked at it. It turned into a needle-case. He copulated with (this one). (The visitor) took his wife home [and brought her there]. His herd was very large. He took a barren doe and anointed her [with it], but the blood did not adhere. He took a castrated buck and anointed her, but the blood was too slippery. He took another reindeer, but its blood was also bad. (He took) an old doe, its blood was bad. He took a doe three years old, its blood was bad. He took a doe two years old, its blood was bad. He took a buck three years old, its blood was like water. He took a buck two years old, its blood was bad.
Read may be right that these are just stream of consciousness blather .
66: this is encouraging. I wish I had more confidence in liberal blogs' effectiveness in generally--there seems to be less interest in actually lobbying Obama than: 1) arguing that X, Y, or Z shows he's not really progressive & that his supporters need to stop being celebrity-worshipping cultists; 2) arguing that it's too soon to pressure or judge him about anything before he takes office; 3) mordant prophesying about how The Village won't allow him to accomplish anything & the DC Establishment hates liberals, etc. etc. (Digby is currently driving me batty writing a series of posts about how a commission to investigate torture won't happen and would be futile anyway, and we won't learn the truth and the truth isn't enough w/o prosecution and prosecution REALLY won't happen because the village won't allow it. I mean, quite possibly--I'm quite pessimistic about prosecutions between pardons & the CW that it's a political third rail, less so about an investigation--but it would be really nice if liberals would actually extend some effort to lobby for a public accounting & prosecutions before giving up. And a lot of the explanations for why an investigation won't go anywhere are based on very silly reasons--yes, witnesses can keep stonewalling, but they no longer can count on the executive branch keeping all the documents classified, refusing to seek or enforce contempt sanctions, etc. etc. etc.)
220: That is slightly encouraging - although it pisses me off that he was in the running in the first place.
I don't know how to "lobby for" things.
I don't know how to "lobby for" things.
Time to learn, then. Brain dump on how to use web 2.0 as a lobbying tool (5 million people contributing $5.00 via PayPal as PAC money)?