Predictions Thread
on 12.28.23
It appears we didn't do a predictions thread last year, or at least I can't find it. But this is now an exceptionally good year for predictions (at least in the US) because there are so many open questions that will have unambiguous answers over the next year, like elections and court cases, even if the first answer gets mired down in violent denials and/or appeals.
I'll try my hand:
- Speaker of the House doesn't make it past Super Tuesday
- At that point, they aren't able to elect a new one
- Biden wins with a larger margin than in 2020. Trump's mental instability becomes obvious to uninformed, independent voters.
- On the whole, Trump's court cases aren't satisfying, and at least one ends up fueling conspiracy theories in a way that makes us all hold our foreheads because there's a kernel of truth to it. But "comeuppance" is never achieved in a satisfying way."
Your turn! Go out on those limbs!
Guest Rant -- Rumbles in the Jungle
on 12.27.23
Mossy Character writes:
DR Congo's having an election. (Explainers: BBC; Al Jazeera; CFR.) It's a mess; the opposition(s) seem to be gearing up to reject the results. (The previous election was probably stolen.)
Rwanda has over the past ~2 years been reactivating its M23 proxy rebels; over the past ~2 months, Congo has required the withdrawal of an East African force which was supposed to be handling M23 (already out), and a UN force (due out by May); ~2 weeks ago, Kenya hosted the proclamation of a new rebel alliance, including M23.
The next megadeath war? You ignored it here first!
Heebie's take: Oh no.
How about a holiday open thread?
on 12.25.23
I've eaten my weight in sugar already.